Gunner's 2020 Mock Draft! UPDATE - v3.0 (and FINAL) now posted on p.8

[Reed83HOF]

In the video here https://www.wkbw.com/sports/bills/joe-b-5-takeaways-from-buffalo-bills-gm-brandon-beane-at-the-2019-nfl-owners-meetings at about the 12:48 mark; he actually talks about WRs:

 

"There's been a lot of 1st round receiver busts, but you gotta do your due diligence and obviously that's a warning sign for you, but if you still feel at the end of the day they fit what you do and their talent is worthy of that, then you just select them. 

Edited February 17, 2020 by Reed83HOF

[Alphadawg7]

Obviously, FA will affect all of this.  Guys like AJ Green, Clowney, Yannick are really the main names to watch in this regard.  But for this I will assume we signed none of those guys.

 

Personally, I think Beane won't pass on AJ Epenesa at 22 if he's still there because without signing someone like Clowney or Yannick, then pass rushing DE is going to be a pretty gaping hole on this team, even if we keep Shaq.  The draft is so deep at WR and the drop off at DE is steep once the top 3 guys are gone IMO.  

 

Now, I would personally prefer to take the best available WR at 22, who I also think will be Higgins.  Josh Allen's development IMO is absolutely priority number 1, and we need to get him some offense fire power.  Actually would be stoked about any of the top WR's still on the board at 22 and Higgins probably compliments the current WR group here best.  

 

But like I said, there is still going to be so much talent at WR in the 2nd, that I think nabbing one of the top DE's at 22 could very well be Beanes move then going WR in the 2nd and maybe even double dipping at WR in the draft again later.  

[GunnerBill]

@Reed83HOF

 

Thanks for posting that. Very useful reminder for people of how Beane works. One take away from that which is worth drawing out to highlight to folks who don't follow this stuff closely - Brandon Beane talks about having "15 guys with first round grades." It is one of the questions I get most often - how can you say you only have 15 or 16 first round players when there are 32 picks? And it comes down to keeping an objective scale rather than just making a big board. Provisionally (and I have some checking back to do still) I have 19 true first round grades in this draft. I had 20 before the weekend but on some checking back I moved a guy down. I have checked back on more Chaisson film today and am considering moving him up. It will remain fluid yet for a few weeks as I go back and watch guys I have on borderlines again. If you just rank players every year and then say each time "the top 32 are first round grades" then you have no means of measuring the quality year to year or of noticing where the cliff edges are betweeen which is why teams do not do it that way. 

 

The other thing I reflected on having read that is how far would one of the top 3 receivers have to get before Beane considered them to be sticking out there and at a position of need? Personally I think if you get past the Broncos at #15 and one of them is still on the clock it is worth making calls. I bet that Beane has a number in his head too but it will depend how the board falls.

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Obviously, FA will affect all of this.  Guys like AJ Green, Clowney, Yannick are really the main names to watch in this regard.  But for this I will assume we signed none of those guys.

 

Personally, I think Beane won't pass on AJ Epenesa at 22 if he's still there because without signing someone like Clowney or Yannick, then pass rushing DE is going to be a pretty gaping hole on this team, even if we keep Shaq.  The draft is so deep at WR and the drop off at DE is steep once the top 3 guys are gone IMO.  

 

Now, I would personally prefer to take the best available WR at 22, who I also think will be Higgins.  Josh Allen's development IMO is absolutely priority number 1, and we need to get him some offense fire power.  Actually would be stoked about any of the top WR's still on the board at 22 and Higgins probably compliments the current WR group here best.  

 

But like I said, there is still going to be so much talent at WR in the 2nd, that I think nabbing one of the top DE's at 22 could very well be Beanes move then going WR in the 2nd and maybe even double dipping at WR in the draft again later.  

 

I agree with what you say about Higgins. I disagree on Epenesa. I think you are re-drafting Shaq in some ways with that pick. A 5 or 6 sack a year guy is great if you are complimenting him with a guy getting 9-12 on the other side. But I think both Shaq and Epenesa are very good all round defensive ends who are only going to be adequate as pass rushers. To me the Bills need an explosive edge guy with speed and bend. At the moment I am struggling for a pick I love at 22 (hey that happens when you are good and draft later in the 1st) but then I was not in love with any of what I thought was going to be there at #9 last year and suddenly there was my #2 overall player when the Bills went on the clock! So strange things can happen. 

[Reed83HOF]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

@Reed83HOF

 

Thanks for posting that. Very useful reminder for people of how Beane works. One take away from that which is worth drawing out to highlight to folks who don't follow this stuff closely - Brandon Beane talks about having "15 guys with first round grades." It is one of the questions I get most often - how can you say you only have 15 or 16 first round players when there are 32 picks? And it comes down to keeping an objective scale rather than just making a big board. Provisionally (and I have some checking back to do still) I have 19 true first round grades in this draft. I had 20 before the weekend but on some checking back I moved a guy down. I have checked back on more Chaisson film today and am considering moving him up. It will remain fluid yet for a few weeks as I go back and watch guys I have on borderlines again. If you just rank players every year and then say each time "the top 32 are first round grades" then you have no means of measuring the quality year to year or of noticing where the cliff edges are betweeen which is why teams do not do it that way. 

 

The other thing I reflected on having read that is how far would one of the top 3 receivers have to get before Beane considered them to be sticking out there and at a position of need? Personally I think if you get past the Broncos at #15 and one of them is still on the clock it is worth making calls. I bet that Beane has a number in his head too but it will depend how the board falls.

 

I haven't done a enough study y self to zero in but I think there are right around 15-20 true first round talents in this draft, which makes #22 a tougher spot to be in, as I have felt all along, you are right at the edge of RD2 talent getting pushed up the board and we see that happening on many mocks and many comments on this board. I think it is important to also think about Beane's end of season presser:

 

“We have to keep our defense strong,” Beane said. “They had a really good year. I would say you have to be strong in all three phases, we want to be better on special teams. Our special teams, I did think improved from a year ago, but we’re not happy with that. Offensively, we did show some improvements statistically, and Josh [Allen] improved and we scored more points. At the end of the day, we didn’t score enough points.

 

“A lot of times, if you make the playoffs, your last game is kind of emblematic of, if you don’t win at all, whether you go to the championship game or you lose like we did, a lot of times it kind of shows you how your season went, and where you’re good and where you need to get better. I thought we saw that, we just didn’t score enough points.”

 

it’s me doing a better job of increasing the talent around him, too, so that he can trust, have more players that [he] can trust and make plays for him, where he’s just got to get the ball out, hand it off, do whatever, and not feel like he has to do too much.

 

Beane readily admits that our Defense is strong and we have to keep it strong, but twice - we didn't score enough points and he stated we have to add talent around him againg twice - have players he can trust. 

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/07/buffalo-bills-brandon-beane-press-conference-8-takeaways/6/

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree with what you say about Higgins. I disagree on Epenesa. I think you are re-drafting Shaq in some ways with that pick. A 5 or 6 sack a year guy is great if you are complimenting him with a guy getting 9-12 on the other side. But I think both Shaq and Epenesa are very good all round defensive ends who are only going to be adequate as pass rushers. To me the Bills need an explosive edge guy with speed and bend. At the moment I am struggling for a pick I love at 22 (hey that happens when you are good and draft later in the 1st) but then I was not in love with any of what I thought was going to be there at #9 last year and suddenly there was my #2 overall player when the Bills went on the clock! So strange things can happen. 

100% agree & so does Beane
 

Though he knows that premier pass rushers are rare, Beane admitted that he’s always in search of improvements across the defensive line.

 

“You’d love to have one, you really would,” Beane said. “There’s not even 32 of them, though, one for each team. I promise you, we’re looking for those guys, and would love pressure on the quarterback. If the quarterback’s on his backside, he can’t do too much damage to us.

 

“We want to be strong upfront, we want to stop the run, things like that, but at the end of the day, there’s only so many Von Miller’s, that type of player.”

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/07/buffalo-bills-brandon-beane-press-conference-8-takeaways/6/

 

[Reed83HOF]

30 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

@Reed83HOF

 

Thanks for posting that. Very useful reminder for people of how Beane works. One take away from that which is worth drawing out to highlight to folks who don't follow this stuff closely - Brandon Beane talks about having "15 guys with first round grades." It is one of the questions I get most often - how can you say you only have 15 or 16 first round players when there are 32 picks? And it comes down to keeping an objective scale rather than just making a big board. Provisionally (and I have some checking back to do still) I have 19 true first round grades in this draft. I had 20 before the weekend but on some checking back I moved a guy down. I have checked back on more Chaisson film today and am considering moving him up. It will remain fluid yet for a few weeks as I go back and watch guys I have on borderlines again. If you just rank players every year and then say each time "the top 32 are first round grades" then you have no means of measuring the quality year to year or of noticing where the cliff edges are betweeen which is why teams do not do it that way. 

 

The other thing I reflected on having read that is how far would one of the top 3 receivers have to get before Beane considered them to be sticking out there and at a position of need? Personally I think if you get past the Broncos at #15 and one of them is still on the clock it is worth making calls. I bet that Beane has a number in his head too but it will depend how the board falls.

13 is about the highest where the parting up picks would be palatable (EX we wouldn't pick again until RD3).

 

I am not sure the falcons style move for Julio (move up 21 spots from 27 to 6) would work anymore (gave 1st 2nd & 4th in that draft) and unless Beane is feeling really confident after UFA and is willing to move the 2021 #1 like KC in 2017 to keep our #2 this year and fly up to around pick #8-9. I feel like that price might be too much. It depends on how they really feel about the top 3 being able to come in and contribute this year...tough call

[hjnick]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

@Reed83HOF

 

Thanks for posting that. Very useful reminder for people of how Beane works. One take away from that which is worth drawing out to highlight to folks who don't follow this stuff closely - Brandon Beane talks about having "15 guys with first round grades." It is one of the questions I get most often - how can you say you only have 15 or 16 first round players when there are 32 picks? And it comes down to keeping an objective scale rather than just making a big board. Provisionally (and I have some checking back to do still) I have 19 true first round grades in this draft. I had 20 before the weekend but on some checking back I moved a guy down. I have checked back on more Chaisson film today and am considering moving him up. It will remain fluid yet for a few weeks as I go back and watch guys I have on borderlines again. If you just rank players every year and then say each time "the top 32 are first round grades" then you have no means of measuring the quality year to year or of noticing where the cliff edges are betweeen which is why teams do not do it that way. 

 

The other thing I reflected on having read that is how far would one of the top 3 receivers have to get before Beane considered them to be sticking out there and at a position of need? Personally I think if you get past the Broncos at #15 and one of them is still on the clock it is worth making calls. I bet that Beane has a number in his head too but it will depend how the board falls.

Thanks for sharing your insights on this.

 

So if we are picking 22 and there are only 15 1st Round grades, what do you do when your 15 have been snatched up???

 

Do you try to trade down and out of the 1st round?  Do you just take someone knowing they should be picked at least 1/2 a round later?

 

What's the thought process?  Thanks.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, hjnick said:

Thanks for sharing your insights on this.

 

So if we are picking 22 and there are only 15 1st Round grades, what do you do when your 15 have been snatched up???

 

Do you try to trade down and out of the 1st round?  Do you just take someone knowing they should be picked at least 1/2 a round later?

 

What's the thought process?  Thanks.

 

As Brandon Beane would say.... you let your board tell you what to do... let's say you have 15 or 16 1st round grades they are all gone by 22 and you then have another tier of 5 or 6 guys you like about the same who you have high second round grades on. You might be willing to entertain sliding back a few spots if someone wants to come up. If there are no offers that match your value to slide back then you pick the best player on your board and that is where you REALLY have to be BPA. You can't say oh well the 16 1st round grades I had are gone at this point it makes no difference if I take this guy I have graded right at the top of round two who is not at a "need" spot or the guy I have graded 5 or 6 points lower who is a need guy. That is how you get yourself in trouble. 

[GunnerBill]

Updated post Free Agency version 2.0 - let's have your thoughts

 

1. Bengals - Joe Burrow - QB - LSU
Ignore the speculation about Cincy trading this pick. Don't see it at all. Burrow is one of the highest floor QB prospects to come out in a number of years. He can play at an Andy Dalton level right out of the blocks and will continue to develop from there.
2. Redskins - Chase Young - DE - Ohio St
This pick is even more locked in. Defensive end might not be the Redskins number 1 need but Young is the best player in this class and an immediate impact player on defense.
3. TRADE! - Chargers - Tua Tagovailoa - QB - Alabama (Chargers get #3 & #109; Lions get #6, #37 and #71) - Pick change previously Tua Tagovailoa to Dolphins
I still think Tua goes off the board at #3 to a team that trades up with the Lions, but I am starting to lock on to the idea that the Chargers really like Tua and that maybe Miami have gone a little lukewarm on the idea of giving up picks to come up and maybe have he and Herbert closer than some do.
4. Giants - Tristan Wirfs - OT - Wisconsin
I am sticking with this one. A big bruising mauler of a lineman just feels so Dave Gettleman and the Giants oline has felt like a work in progress for about 5 years. Tristan Wirfs is the top offensive tackle on my board but if Solder stays in place Wirfs could even play inside or at right tackle.
5. Dolphins - Isaiah Simmons - LB - Clemson - Pick change previously Jeff Okudah to Lions
If the Dolphins stay at #5 and Wirfs has gone then the guy that makes the most sense to me is Simmons. Their linbacking has been poor for a long time and while they addressed it to some extent in free agency with Van Noy and Roberts coming over from New England Simmons would be a really playmaking upgrade at that spot.
6. (From Los Angeles) Lions - Jeff Okudah - CB - Ohio St - Pick change previously Justin Herbert to Dolphins
I think wherever in the top 6 spots the Lions pick they will select Jeff Okudah. Indeed how far they are willing to trade back may well depend on where they think they can safely drop to in order to snag him. They had a need at corner to start with and they exacerbated it trading Darius Slay to Philadelphia. He was their best defensive player for the past 7 seasons and is going to be a tough piece to replace.
7. Panthers - Derrick Brown - DT - Auburn - Pick change previously Jedrick Wills to Jets
The Panthers have a need on the interior of their defensive line. Vernon Butler is now a Bill, Donatri Poe and Gerald McCoy are both now Cowboys and Kawaan Short is 31 and coming off a serious injury. When you are starting with a new regime you want foundational pieces and Derrick Brown is the sort of guy who you plug in and play for the next 10 seasons.
8. Cardinals - Mekhi Becton - OT - Louisville
All off-season I have been between an offensive tackle and a wide receiver at this spot. I was leaning offensive tackle and then they re-signed DJ Humphries to a frankly ludicrous deal. However, even more ludicrous was the very cheap price they managed to acquire DeAndre Hopkins for. So I am almost back where I started and standing pat with Mekhi Becton. He is raw but with an incredible ceiling and it would allow them to kick Humphries back to the right side which is where he is considerably more comfortable.  
9. Jaguars - Javon Kinlaw - DT - South Carolina - Pick change previously Derrick Brown
In February I said that Marcel Dareus and Calais Campbell are both possible cut / trade candidates. Dareus has been cut and Campbell has been traded. They do still have 2018 first round pick Taven Bryan though he hasn't yet fully delivered on his potential but Kinlaw is a perfect fit in their scheme and represent value at this spot.
10. Browns - Jedrick Wills- OT - Alabama - Pick change previously Andrew Thomas
The Browns oline was desperate in 2019 and they need to do a better job protecting Baker Mayfield. Jedrick Wills has played right tackle at Alabama but given that Tua is a left handed Quarterback right tackle does mean blindside protector in that scheme. Given that experience I hear that a number of NFL teams are content that he can play on the left side at the next level .
11. Jets - Andrew Thomas - OT - Georgia - Pick change previously Javon Kinlaw to Panthers
Having been considered the #1 offensive tackle in the draft for much of the season Thomas might be disappointed to only be the 4th guy taken, but believe me Sam Darnold will be delighted to see it happen. Thomas's ceiling might be lower than the three tackles selected above him but he is the safest tackle prospect in the draft. Immediate upgrade for Gang Green.
12. Raiders - Jerry Jeudy - WR - Alabama
The Raiders sniffed around some of the better receiver options in the free agency and trade market without landing one - they signed drops machine Nelson Agholor instead. That confirms to me that they know it remains a need.  Jerry Jeudy has the smooth, precise route running that Gruden's system requires and that they though they had acquired last season when trading for Antonio Brown. 
13. 49ers - CeeDee Lamb - WR - Oklahoma - Pick change previously CeeDee Lamb to Colts
I had CeeDee Lamb here to the Colts in my previous mock and I still have him at this spot now the 49ers are in possession of the pick. The 49ers sent their 3rd and 4th round picks in this draft to Denver last October to acquire Emmanuel Sanders (and a 5th rounder) only to see him walk in free agency. They likely will get a 3rd round comp pick back for that next year but that doesn't solve the receiver problem they have right now. I am convinced that acquiring one of the top 3 wideouts in the class was behind the decision to trade DeForest Buckner to the Colts in exchange for this pick and I think Lamb is the perfect fit as their #1 guy to compliment Deebo Samuel who is a high end #2.

14. Buccaneers - Xavier McKinney - S - Alabama - Pick change previously Isaiah Simmons
I started version 1.0 by saying that I believe that Jameis Winston would be back in Tampa in 2020. Things change fast. The Buccaneers are in "win now" mode and that means that they should be aggressive in the draft in addressing their most glaring needs. The weakest spot on their roster might be running back but it feels early to go in that direction at #14 and their next biggest need is safety. Todd Bowles scheme does ask more of its safeties than most and has been effective with guys like Jamal Adams and Tyrann Mathieu. McKinney is the best safety in this class by a distance and is a day 1 starter.

15. Broncos - CJ Henderson - CB – Florida - Pick change previously Henry Ruggs

Like the Buccs, the Broncos are a  team that went 7-9 in 2019 but has surprisingly few obvious needs. The three options here are interior offensive line, where the value doesn't match the need, wide receiver where it does with Henry Ruggs but the depth of the class might allow them to hold off until round 2 and corner where they replaced Chris Harris with AJ Bouye but still have a need on the opposite side. I am not a huge CJ Henderson lover, he has the physical traits but he switches off too often mentally for my liking. That said, he is a scheme fit for Vic Fangio who will ask his corners to play a good dose of man coverage.
16. Falcons - K'Lavon Chaisson - DE - LSU

From a 7-9 team with surprisingly few major needs to one with a hatful of them. The Falcons roster is in the biggest mess of any in the NFL right now. It is ageing, lacks depth and has major salary cap issues. They could go practically any position except for Quarterback and receiver with this pick. By releasing Desmond Trufant for cap reasons they have left the cupboard pretty bare at corner but they also lost Vic Beasley and Adrian Clayborn as edge players and Chaisson would help address that.
17. Cowboys - Kristian Fulton - CB - LSU - Pick change previously Xavier McKinney

The most obvious weakness on a stacked Dallas roster that underachieved in 2019 was in the secondary. They then exacerbated that by allowing Byron Jones to walk in free agency. They have to address corner often and early in this draft. Kristian Fulton comes right off that production line of LSU corners and I actually have him graded above CJ Henderson. He would be an excellent pick here.

18. Dolphins - Justin Herbert - QB - Oregon - Pick change previously Josh Jones
Having passed on a Quarterback at #5 the Dolphins could just decide to sit the QB market out and roll with another year of Ryan Fitzpatrick. The question would be whether that is really sellable to the fanbase. I am not a Herbert lover and I can't get on board with him in the top 10, but here he feels like a more proportionate risk.  

19. Raiders - Patrick Queen - LB – LSU

The Las Vegas Raiders have struggled at linebacker for a number of seasons and their second first round pick in this draft is a perfect opportunity to do something about it. Both Patrick Queen and Kenneth Murray are still on the board but I give the edge to Queen at this spot – especially as Mike Mayock demonstrated last year he loves taking players from winning programmes.  
20. Jaguars - Kenneth Murray - LB – Oklahoma

Another team that has questions at linebacker is the Jaguars. Myles Jack has regressed and doesn’t look to have the athleticism he once possessed, Telvin Smith is not coming back and they ended up signing Preston Brown at the end of the season…. After he was cut by the Bengals and the aforementioned, linebacker deficient, Raiders. Kenneth Murray is raw and his play diagnosis skills will really be tested at the next level but he can run, hit and has incredible range.
21. Eagles - Henry Ruggs - WR - Alabama - Pick change previously Jalon Reagor

I am a little shocked I have Ruggs falling here and in reality I am not sure it happens but it would be the dream scenario for the Eagles if it did. Everyone knows they need receiver help. Alshon Jeffrey has struggled to stay healthy, Nelson Agholor is gone and DeSean Jackson is 33. However, what a healthy Jackson did show in his 2019 season debut, was the value to Carson Wentz and this offense of a genuine deep threat. I wouldn't even be shocked if the Eagles ended up trading up a few spots for Ruggs if he starts to slide down the board.

22. Vikings  - Zach Baun - LB - Wisconsin - Pick change previously Tee Higgins to Bills
The Vikings have a need at corner and at receiver to replace Stefon Diggs, but I think an additional sneaky need is linebacker. Zach Baun is the kind of versatile piece who can play off the ball and hold his own in coverage on early downs and then can come up to the line and rush the passer in obvious passing situations. I just see him as a typical Mike Zimmer player.
23. Patriots - Yetur Gross-Matos - DE - Penn St
I have no idea what direction the Patriots will go in but they need to improve their front 7 and this  still feels like a classic Patriot pick. A guy to play the trenches who is not flashy but effective and will "do his job." I see some similarities between his game and Trey Flowers who had a massive 2018 season with New England before moving on to Detroit.
24. Saints - Jordan Love - QB - Utah State
I don't believe that Taysom Hill is truly the next franchise Quarterback of the New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees is back so you can sit Love for a year and develop him making him worth a flier at this spot. Given that the Saints were aggressive in securing a veteran safety and a legitimate #2 receiver in free agency I feel even better than I did in version 1 about this pick.
25. Vikings - Tee Higgins - WR - Clemson - Pick change previously Kristian Fulton
Having traded away Diggs for a #1 pick the Vikings do have a glaring hole at receiver opposite Adam Thielen. I think it likely comes down to Justin Jefferson as a big slot or Tee Higgins as a downfield target. I am leaning towards Higgins for two reasons - 1. He is the highest graded receiver left on my board at this point and 2. The Vikings already used Thielen in that big slot position at times last year to get matchups they liked and I'm not sure they want to mess with that formula.
26. Miami - Josh Jones - OT - Houston - Pick change previously Marlon Davidson to Lions
I had this pick at #18 in version 1 and the Miami Dolphins would be delighted to be able to take Jones down at #26. Their tackle play last season was an abomination. No surprise as they allowed Ju’waan James to join Denver in free agency and then traded away Laremy Tunsil. They have to seek to rebuild that line for whoever their new Quarterback may be. Jones is a good mover and has excellent physical traits but he is raw and might require some patience in Miami.
27. Seahawks - AJ Epenesa - DE - Iowa
Jadaveon Clowney is still out there in free agency and I still think Seattle should bring him back. If they don't Epenesa fits the profile of bigger ends that have played in Pete Carroll's scheme. He isn't going to wow you as a pass rusher and as a result I think he goes later than some expect but this would be a really nice scheme fit.
28. Ravens - Cesar Ruiz - C - Michigan - Pick change previously Jonathan Taylor
The retirement of Marshal Yanda takes interior offensive line from a sneaky need for the Ravens to a pressing one, especially as current starting center Matt Skura is only on a one year RFA tender. I think Cesar Ruiz from Michigan would be a nice fit here. They could either start him at guard or they could move Skura to guard (where he deputised effectively for Yanda in 2017) and plug Ruiz straight in to anchor that line from the center position for the next decade.
29. Titans - Ross Blacklock - DT - TCU - Pick change previously CJ Henderson
The strangest trade of the off-season not involving the Houston Texans was the decision of the Titans to send their best defensive lineman Jurrell Casey to the Broncos for a 7th round draft pick. Yes he was on a big, though not crazy, salary and the Titans were making sure they could pay Ryan Tannehill but they created a hole that will need filling immediately. Luckily for them the back end of the first round is a spot where the value on the board matches the need quite nicely with Blacklock just getting the edge ahead of Oklahoma's Neville Gallimore.
30. Packers - Justin Jefferson - WR - LSU - Pick change previously Laviska Shenault
Davante Adams is elite but he does have a tendency to get nicked up. He has only managed to play in 16 games twice in 6 seasons. Allen Lazard was their next best receiver in 2019 but he is a limited former UDFA. They don't have much in terms of slot options so Justin Jefferson is a perfect fit here in an offense where he can just be a guy and doesn't have to be the guy.
31. 49ers - Jaylon Johnson - CB - Utah - Pick change previously Austin Jackson
I still think offensive line is possibly in play for the 49ers but outside of wide receiver their most immediate need is at corner. Their only viable starter is Richard Sherman who had a terrific bounce back season in 2019 but has just turned 32. One of my favourite players in the entire draft is Jaylon Johnson our of Utah and I think he fits the scheme, fits the need and represents good value at this spot.
32. Chiefs - Neville Gallimore - DT - Oklahoma
The Chiefs decided to tag Chris Jones, but signing him long term will still be tricky. Currently they have 10 players costing around 60% of the salary cap in 2020. And even after Sammy Watkins too a pay cut they have less than $3m of cap room which isn't even enough to sign their draft class. That is before they even consider extending Mahomes. I still think there is a chance for Jones to be in a different uniform in 2020 as part of a tag and trade. Neville Gallimore would step straight into that role or take over if they have to let Jones walk after the 2020 season.

Edited April 11, 2020 by GunnerBill

[HappyDays]

I'll be surprised if no WR goes in the top 10 but I suppose teams might convince themselves (stupidly, in my opinion) that they can wait to get a WR in a deep class. My fear is the Jets take Jeudy, Lamb, or Ruggs and we have to deal with one of them in the division for years to come. But I think you are right and they will draft an OT. Fine by me, they can have the best o-lineman in the draft for all I care.

 

Do you plan on doing a round 2 mock?

[MrEpsYtown]

I really think Tua is going to go to the Chargers for a variety of reasons. Tua is a good fit for Chan Gailey’s offense, but I agree that I’m not sure Miami loves him. Good work @GunnerBill. 
 

Have you worked through a second round? And if so what is available when the Bills pick comes up?

[Reed83HOF]

23 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I'll be surprised if no WR goes in the top 10 but I suppose teams might convince themselves (stupidly, in my opinion) that they can wait to get a WR in a deep class. My fear is the Jets take Jeudy, Lamb, or Ruggs and we have to deal with one of them in the division for years to come. But I think you are right and they will draft an OT. Fine by me, they can have the best o-lineman in the draft for all I care.

 

Do you plan on doing a round 2 mock?

WR makes a lot of sense for them, but if one of the top OTs is still there, they have to make that their pick. The Jests OL is just awful and the next set of OT talent is much worse than WR. JMO

[NewEra]

So the Dolphins select

 

Isaiah Simmons

Justin Herbert
Josh Jones.

 

i had them taking Simmons, love and jones in our mock....and I ruined our draft.  You just ruined your draft without even knowing it. What a trash draft and a waste of everyone’s time GB.

 

great job as always.   

[Lurker]

Can't see Tee Higgins going in the first round...

[HappyDays]

38 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

WR makes a lot of sense for them, but if one of the top OTs is still there, they have to make that their pick. The Jests OL is just awful and the next set of OT talent is much worse than WR. JMO

 

I get it, but I'd rather face Andrew Thomas than Jerry Jeudy for the next 10 years. It's not even close. I'll admit I'm one of those people that doesn't value o-line in the top 20 or so. I think Beane has the right idea in building your o-line through free agency and picks in round 2 and beyond.

[GunnerBill]

41 minutes ago, Lurker said:

Can't see Tee Higgins going in the first round...

 

He isn't a lock but I still think he will. There are just enough needy wide receiver teams. 

31 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I get it, but I'd rather face Andrew Thomas than Jerry Jeudy for the next 10 years. It's not even close. I'll admit I'm one of those people that doesn't value o-line in the top 20 or so. I think Beane has the right idea in building your o-line through free agency and picks in round 2 and beyond.

 

Yea I totally disagree with that. If you haven't got a left tackle you better find one. 

[TPS]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

I'll be surprised if no WR goes in the top 10 but I suppose teams might convince themselves (stupidly, in my opinion) that they can wait to get a WR in a deep class. My fear is the Jets take Jeudy, Lamb, or Ruggs and we have to deal with one of them in the division for years to come. But I think you are right and they will draft an OT. Fine by me, they can have the best o-lineman in the draft for all I care.

 

Do you plan on doing a round 2 mock?

Having "managed" the Jets in Virgil's last draft, I picked Jeudy at 11 because I thought he was a top 10 pick vs OT Thomas who I wasn't certain he could be an LT.

However, had we been able to trade, my goal would've been to trade back a few picks, ideally with Denver at 15, pick up an extra R3 (giving them 3 in R3), then select Chaisson ahead of the Falcons. 

 

The Jets had a top 10 D last year, and were top 2 in run D.  They are a pass-rusher away from being top 5, so that one pick makes them nearly complete on D (they could use another CB).  I really wouldn't be surprised to see the Jets take Chaisson somehow.

 

They could upgrade the RT position in R2, even move near the end of R1 packaging one of their R3 picks.  

[FireChans]

@GunnerBill I agree with the 49ers going WR early. They remind me of a West Coast Bills, talented young team, a defense that has “arrived” and is better QB play away from winning a SuperBowl. Securing a true #1 makes a lot of sense.

 

Don’t agree with the Jordan Love Saints pick though. Not because I don’t think it doesn’t make sense. I just don’t see the Saints spending a first for life without Brees in Brees’ last season. Yeah yeah, they paid Teddy, and that worked out for them pretty well, but a first round pick sitting on the bench when there are day one contributors out there? The Saints are my guaranteed to reach to fill a hole team.

Edited April 11, 2020 by FireChans

[GunnerBill]

32 minutes ago, FireChans said:

@GunnerBill I agree with the 49ers going WR early. They remind me of a West Coast Bills, talented young team, a defense that has “arrived” and is better QB play away from winning a SuperBowl. Securing a true #1 makes a lot of sense.

 

Don’t agree with the Jordan Love Saints pick though. Not because I don’t think it doesn’t make sense. I just don’t see the Saints spending a first for life without Brees in Brees’ last season. Yeah yeah, they paid Teddy, and that worked out for them pretty well, but a first round pick sitting on the bench when there are day one contributors out there? The Saints are my guaranteed to reach to fill a hole team.

 

My issue is finding a clear need. Corner I could see but not sure about the value. Maybe they go for Diggs. Possible certainly. 

[Mr. WEO]

Bucky Brooks with Tua ahead of Burrow...

 

What a chucklehead.

[Victory Formation]

I don’t see Miami white knuckling it to #18 for Herbert, somebody will move up for him. With a premium on QBs, regardless of how you feel about him he’ll be over drafted by some team. Personally I think Herbert has a good arm and mobility, I reckon he can be a good QB in the NFL in the right environment. The longest I see him lasting to is about #10. Someone is gonna come up for him and Miami will be left without a QB. It’d be great to see Miami end up with Jordan Love but I think they go QB with that first pick.

[Kirby Jackson]

There are a couple of things that we disagree on. I’m fairly confident at this point that Justin Jefferson will be the 4th WR off the board. I think that the QBs are a little low. You have them more in line with their value but it feels like people always panic and overdraft them. It would be a surprise if only 2 went in the top 10. I just think Miami takes one with their first pick.

 

Really like where you have Baun, Fulton and Gallimore. Those are all guys that aren’t consistently mocked in round 1 that I think will go there. They all are guys that I could see scouts really liking. 
 

@GunnerBill nice job as always!!

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

There are a couple of things that we disagree on. I’m fairly confident at this point that Justin Jefferson will be the 4th WR off the board. I think that the QBs are a little low. You have them more in line with their value but it feels like people always panic and overdraft them. It would be a surprise if only 2 went in the top 10. I just think Miami takes one with their first pick.

 

Really like where you have Baun, Fulton and Gallimore. Those are all guys that aren’t consistently mocked in round 1 that I think will go there. They all are guys that I could see scouts really liking. 
 

@GunnerBill nice job as always!!

 

Maybe it is my personal beef on Jefferson. I just cannot see a first round player on that tape no matter how hard I try. Interestingly Blokes hasn't been watching draft stuff and asked me for a list of guys to watch and I asked him to start with the jumble of receivers beneath the top 3 and he came to the same conclusion. I could see it in Minnesota, wouldn't be shocked if they went Jefferson and I wouldn't hate it there or in Green Bay or anywhere they already have a true #1 outside guy. But say Ruggs has already gone..... Jefferson makes zero sense in Philly. They need help outside and if a team takes Justin Jefferson and thinks they are getting an NFL level outside receiver they are going to be sorely mistaken. 

[JohnC]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Updated post Free Agency version 2.0 - let's have your thoughts

 

1. Bengals - Joe Burrow - QB - LSU
Ignore the speculation about Cincy trading this pick. Don't see it at all. Burrow is one of the highest floor QB prospects to come out in a number of years. He can play at an Andy Dalton level right out of the blocks and will continue to develop from there.
2. Redskins - Chase Young - DE - Ohio St
This pick is even more locked in. Defensive end might not be the Redskins number 1 need but Young is the best player in this class and an immediate impact player on defense.
3. TRADE! - Chargers - Tua Tagovailoa - QB - Alabama (Chargers get #3 & #109; Lions get #6, #37 and #71) - Pick change previously Tua Tagovailoa to Dolphins
I still think Tua goes off the board at #3 to a team that trades up with the Lions, but I am starting to lock on to the idea that the Chargers really like Tua and that maybe Miami have gone a little lukewarm on the idea of giving up picks to come up and maybe have he and Herbert closer than some do.
4. Giants - Tristan Wirfs - OT - Wisconsin
I am sticking with this one. A big bruising mauler of a lineman just feels so Dave Gettleman and the Giants oline has felt like a work in progress for about 5 years. Tristan Wirfs is the top offensive tackle on my board but if Solder stays in place Wirfs could even play inside or at right tackle.
5. Dolphins - Isaiah Simmons - LB - Clemson - Pick change previously Jeff Okudah to Lions
If the Dolphins stay at #5 and Wirfs has gone then the guy that makes the most sense to me is Simmons. Their linbacking has been poor for a long time and while they addressed it to some extent in free agency with Van Noy and Roberts coming over from New England Simmons would be a really playmaking upgrade at that spot.
6. (From Los Angeles) Lions - Jeff Okudah - CB - Ohio St - Pick change previously Justin Herbert to Dolphins
I think wherever in the top 6 spots the Lions pick they will select Jeff Okudah. Indeed how far they are willing to trade back may well depend on where they think they can safely drop to in order to snag him. They had a need at corner to start with and they exacerbated it trading Darius Slay to Philadelphia. He was their best defensive player for the past 7 seasons and is going to be a tough piece to replace.
7. Panthers - Derrick Brown - DT - Auburn - Pick change previously Jedrick Wills to Jets
The Panthers have a need on the interior of their defensive line. Vernon Butler is now a Bill, Donatri Poe and Gerald McCoy are both now Cowboys and Kawaan Short is 31 and coming off a serious injury. When you are starting with a new regime you want foundational pieces and Derrick Brown is the sort of guy who you plug in and play for the next 10 seasons.
8. Cardinals - Mekhi Becton - OT - Louisville
All off-season I have been between an offensive tackle and a wide receiver at this spot. I was leaning offensive tackle and then they re-signed DJ Humphries to a frankly ludicrous deal. However, even more ludicrous was the very cheap price they managed to acquire DeAndre Hopkins for. So I am almost back where I started and standing pat with Mekhi Becton. He is raw but with an incredible ceiling and it would allow them to kick Humphries back to the right side which is where he is considerably more comfortable.  
9. Jaguars - Javon Kinlaw - DT - South Carolina - Pick change previously Derrick Brown
In February I said that Marcel Dareus and Calais Campbell are both possible cut / trade candidates. Dareus has been cut and Campbell has been traded. They do still have 2018 first round pick Taven Bryan though he hasn't yet fully delivered on his potential but Kinlaw is a perfect fit in their scheme and represent value at this spot.
10. Browns - Jedrick Wills- OT - Alabama - Pick change previously Andrew Thomas
The Browns oline was desperate in 2019 and they need to do a better job protecting Baker Mayfield. Jedrick Wills has played right tackle at Alabama but given that Tua is a left handed Quarterback right tackle does mean blindside protector in that scheme. Given that experience I hear that a number of NFL teams are content that he can play on the left side at the next level .
11. Jets - Andrew Thomas - OT - Georgia - Pick change previously Javon Kinlaw to Panthers
Having been considered the #1 offensive tackle in the draft for much of the season Thomas might be disappointed to only be the 4th guy taken, but believe me Sam Darnold will be delighted to see it happen. Thomas's ceiling might be lower than the three tackles selected above him but he is the safest tackle prospect in the draft. Immediate upgrade for Gang Green.
12. Raiders - Jerry Jeudy - WR - Alabama
The Raiders sniffed around some of the better receiver options in the free agency and trade market without landing one - they signed drops machine Nelson Agholor instead. That confirms to me that they know it remains a need.  Jerry Jeudy has the smooth, precise route running that Gruden's system requires and that they though they had acquired last season when trading for Antonio Brown. 
13. 49ers - CeeDee Lamb - WR - Oklahoma - Pick change previously CeeDee Lamb to Colts
I had CeeDee Lamb here to the Colts in my previous mock and I still have him at this spot now the 49ers are in possession of the pick. The 49ers sent their 3rd and 4th round picks in this draft to Denver last October to acquire Emmanuel Sanders (and a 5th rounder) only to see him walk in free agency. They likely will get a 3rd round comp pick back for that next year but that doesn't solve the receiver problem they have right now. I am convinced that acquiring one of the top 3 wideouts in the class was behind the decision to trade DeForest Buckner to the Colts in exchange for this pick and I think Lamb is the perfect fit as their #1 guy to compliment Deebo Samuel who is a high end #2.

14. Buccaneers - Xavier McKinney - S - Alabama - Pick change previously Isaiah Simmons
I started version 1.0 by saying that I believe that Jameis Winston would be back in Tampa in 2020. Things change fast. The Buccaneers are in "win now" mode and that means that they should be aggressive in the draft in addressing their most glaring needs. The weakest spot on their roster might be running back but it feels early to go in that direction at #14 and their next biggest need is safety. Todd Bowles scheme does ask more of its safeties than most and has been effective with guys like Jamal Adams and Tyrann Mathieu. McKinney is the best safety in this class by a distance and is a day 1 starter.

15. Broncos - CJ Henderson - CB – Florida - Pick change previously Henry Ruggs

Like the Buccs, the Broncos are a  team that went 7-9 in 2019 but has surprisingly few obvious needs. The three options here are interior offensive line, where the value doesn't match the need, wide receiver where it does with Henry Ruggs but the depth of the class might allow them to hold off until round 2 and corner where they replaced Chris Harris with AJ Bouye but still have a need on the opposite side. I am not a huge CJ Henderson lover, he has the physical traits but he switches off too often mentally for my liking. That said, he is a scheme fit for Vic Fangio who will ask his corners to play a good dose of man coverage.
16. Falcons - K'Lavon Chaisson - DE - LSU

From a 7-9 team with surprisingly few major needs to one with a hatful of them. The Falcons roster is in the biggest mess of any in the NFL right now. It is ageing, lacks depth and has major salary cap issues. They could go practically any position except for Quarterback and receiver with this pick. By releasing Desmond Trufant for cap reasons they have left the cupboard pretty bare at corner but they also lost Vic Beasley and Adrian Clayborn as edge players and Chaisson would help address that.
17. Cowboys - Kristian Fulton - CB - LSU - Pick change previously Xavier McKinney

The most obvious weakness on a stacked Dallas roster that underachieved in 2019 was in the secondary. They then exacerbated that by allowing Byron Jones to walk in free agency. They have to address corner often and early in this draft. Kristian Fulton comes right off that production line of LSU corners and I actually have him graded above CJ Henderson. He would be an excellent pick here.

18. Dolphins - Justin Herbert - QB - Oregon - Pick change previously Josh Jones
Having passed on a Quarterback at #5 the Dolphins could just decide to sit the QB market out and roll with another year of Ryan Fitzpatrick. The question would be whether that is really sellable to the fanbase. I am not a Herbert lover and I can't get on board with him in the top 10, but here he feels like a more proportionate risk.  

19. Raiders - Patrick Queen - LB – LSU

The Las Vegas Raiders have struggled at linebacker for a number of seasons and their second first round pick in this draft is a perfect opportunity to do something about it. Both Patrick Queen and Kenneth Murray are still on the board but I give the edge to Queen at this spot – especially as Mike Mayock demonstrated last year he loves taking players from winning programmes.  
20. Jaguars - Kenneth Murray - LB – Oklahoma

Another team that has questions at linebacker is the Jaguars. Myles Jack has regressed and doesn’t look to have the athleticism he once possessed, Telvin Smith is not coming back and they ended up signing Preston Brown at the end of the season…. After he was cut by the Bengals and the aforementioned, linebacker deficient, Raiders. Kenneth Murray is raw and his play diagnosis skills will really be tested at the next level but he can run, hit and has incredible range.
21. Eagles - Henry Ruggs - WR - Alabama - Pick change previously Jalon Reagor

I am a little shocked I have Ruggs falling here and in reality I am not sure it happens but it would be the dream scenario for the Eagles if it did. Everyone knows they need receiver help. Alshon Jeffrey has struggled to stay healthy, Nelson Agholor is gone and DeSean Jackson is 33. However, what a healthy Jackson did show in his 2019 season debut, was the value to Carson Wentz and this offense of a genuine deep threat. I wouldn't even be shocked if the Eagles ended up trading up a few spots for Ruggs if he starts to slide down the board.

22. Vikings  - Zach Baun - LB - Wisconsin - Pick change previously Tee Higgins to Bills
The Vikings have a need at corner and at receiver to replace Stefon Diggs, but I think an additional sneaky need is linebacker. Zach Baun is the kind of versatile piece who can play off the ball and hold his own in coverage on early downs and then can come up to the line and rush the passer in obvious passing situations. I just see him as a typical Mike Zimmer player.
23. Patriots - Yetur Gross-Matos - DE - Penn St
I have no idea what direction the Patriots will go in but they need to improve their front 7 and this  still feels like a classic Patriot pick. A guy to play the trenches who is not flashy but effective and will "do his job." I see some similarities between his game and Trey Flowers who had a massive 2018 season with New England before moving on to Detroit.
24. Saints - Jordan Love - QB - Utah State
I don't believe that Taysom Hill is truly the next franchise Quarterback of the New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees is back so you can sit Love for a year and develop him making him worth a flier at this spot. Given that the Saints were aggressive in securing a veteran safety and a legitimate #2 receiver in free agency I feel even better than I did in version 1 about this pick.
25. Vikings - Tee Higgins - WR - Clemson - Pick change previously Kristian Fulton
Having traded away Diggs for a #1 pick the Vikings do have a glaring hole at receiver opposite Adam Thielen. I think it likely comes down to Justin Jefferson as a big slot or Tee Higgins as a downfield target. I am leaning towards Higgins for two reasons - 1. He is the highest graded receiver left on my board at this point and 2. The Vikings already used Thielen in that big slot position at times last year to get matchups they liked and I'm not sure they want to mess with that formula.
26. Miami - Josh Jones - OT - Houston - Pick change previously Marlon Davidson to Lions
I had this pick at #18 in version 1 and the Miami Dolphins would be delighted to be able to take Jones down at #26. Their tackle play last season was an abomination. No surprise as they allowed Ju’waan James to join Denver in free agency and then traded away Laremy Tunsil. They have to seek to rebuild that line for whoever their new Quarterback may be. Jones is a good mover and has excellent physical traits but he is raw and might require some patience in Miami.
27. Seahawks - AJ Epenesa - DE - Iowa
Jadaveon Clowney is still out there in free agency and I still think Seattle should bring him back. If they don't Epenesa fits the profile of bigger ends that have played in Pete Carroll's scheme. He isn't going to wow you as a pass rusher and as a result I think he goes later than some expect but this would be a really nice scheme fit.
28. Ravens - Cesar Ruiz - C - Michigan - Pick change previously Jonathan Taylor
The retirement of Marshal Yanda takes interior offensive line from a sneaky need for the Ravens to a pressing one, especially as current starting center Matt Skura is only on a one year RFA tender. I think Cesar Ruiz from Michigan would be a nice fit here. They could either start him at guard or they could move Skura to guard (where he deputised effectively for Yanda in 2017) and plug Ruiz straight in to anchor that line from the center position for the next decade.
29. Titans - Ross Blacklock - DT - TCU - Pick change previously CJ Henderson
The strangest trade of the off-season not involving the Houston Texans was the decision of the Titans to send their best defensive lineman Jurrell Casey to the Broncos for a 7th round draft pick. Yes he was on a big, though not crazy, salary and the Titans were making sure they could pay Ryan Tannehill but they created a hole that will need filling immediately. Luckily for them the back end of the first round is a spot where the value on the board matches the need quite nicely with Blacklock just getting the edge ahead of Oklahoma's Neville Gallimore.
30. Packers - Justin Jefferson - WR - LSU - Pick change previously Laviska Shenault
Davante Adams is elite but he does have a tendency to get nicked up. He has only managed to play in 16 games twice in 6 seasons. Allen Lazard was their next best receiver in 2019 but he is a limited former UDFA. They don't have much in terms of slot options so Justin Jefferson is a perfect fit here in an offense where he can just be a guy and doesn't have to be the guy.
31. 49ers - Jaylon Johnson - CB - Utah - Pick change previously Austin Jackson
I still think offensive line is possibly in play for the 49ers but outside of wide receiver their most immediate need is at corner. Their only viable starter is Richard Sherman who had a terrific bounce back season in 2019 but has just turned 32. One of my favourite players in the entire draft is Jaylon Johnson our of Utah and I think he fits the scheme, fits the need and represents good value at this spot.
32. Chiefs - Neville Gallimore - DT - Oklahoma
The Chiefs decided to tag Chris Jones, but signing him long term will still be tricky. Currently they have 10 players costing around 60% of the salary cap in 2020. And even after Sammy Watkins too a pay cut they have less than $3m of cap room which isn't even enough to sign their draft class. That is before they even consider extending Mahomes. I still think there is a chance for Jones to be in a different uniform in 2020 as part of a tag and trade. Neville Gallimore would step straight into that role or take over if they have to let Jones walk after the 2020 season.

Terrific job as usual. The one selection that I disagree with you is that I believe if a team is going to move up to get Tua it will be Miami. They have a surplus of picks so the cost to move up a few spots shouldn't be too excessive. If Detroit decides to make a deal they can still come way with the player/s that they are targeting. I'm inclined to think that the Chargers would be satisfied to stay where they are at and not trade assets to take Herbert. If a team jumps a head of Miami to take Tua I think that Miami will not mess and go with their next option at qb who is Herbert.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, JohnC said:

Terrific job as usual. The one selection that I disagree with you is that I believe if a team is going to move up to get Tua it will be Miami. They have a surplus of picks so the cost to move up a few spots shouldn't be too excessive. If Detroit decides to make a deal they can still come way with the player/s that they are targeting. I'm inclined to think that the Chargers would be satisfied to stay where they are at and not trade assets to take Herbert. If a team jumps a head of Miami to take Tua I think that Miami will not mess and go with their next option at qb who is Herbert.

 

Agree common sense says Miami ends up with Tua. Just a gut feeling he will be a Charger. 

[Dr. Who]

Thanks for the fine work you consistently provide to this board, Gunner. How early in the 2nd do you see Swift and Dobbins going? Think there's any chance Beane would move up to get them? I surmise it would probably cost too much to move up to the top of the 2nd. (I know, you can make a good case for edge or OT in the second. I am intrigued by the idea of a really excellent backfield; in any event, just hypothetical, even if unlikely.)

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Thanks for the fine work you consistently provide to this board, Gunner. How early in the 2nd do you see Swift and Dobbins going? Think there's any chance Beane would move up to get them? I surmise it would probably cost too much to move up to the top of the 2nd. (I know, you can make a good case for edge or OT in the second. I am intrigued by the idea of a really excellent backfield; in any event, just hypothetical, even if unlikely.)

 

I think Taylor, Swift and Dobbins all have a chance of sneaking into the back end of the first. If they don't I suspect all 3 are gone by pick 15 of the second. If I get time I might do a rough and ready 2nd round since a few people are asking. 

[Aussie Joe]

Gotta say.... whilst I support the trade for Diggs, not having a 1st round pick has killed a lot of my interest in the draft this year..

Cant really get too excited where these quality players end up if there is no chance of them falling to the Bills or the Bills moving up to get one..

 

 

[GunnerBill]

Okay because a few asked for it yesterday here, a bit rough and ready is a round 2 mock to go with version2.0 of round 1:

 

33. Bengals - Tyler Biadasz - C - Wisconsin
The Bengals have weapons for Burrow now they need to focus on protecting him. They have Jonah Williams returning from injury at left tackle, ad Biadasz at center (my #1 IOL in the class) and you have the makings of an oline.
34. Colts - Trevon Diggs - CB - Alabama
Edge rusher and corner are the two weaknesses on the Colts defense. They brought Xavier Rhodes over from the Vikings but a talented young corner like Diggs could represent the future at that spot. 
35. Lions - Marlon Davidson - DT - Auburn
The Lions have lost guys up front in the shape of Damon Harrison and A'Shawn Robinson. They need an upgrade and Davidson is a versatile piece who I think best fits as a slightly undersized interior rusher from the 3 tech spot. 
36. Giants - Denzel Mims - WR - Baylor
I am convinced Gettleman's draft will be about making himself look smart for last year's Daniel Jones pick. A left tackle at #4 and now a wide receiver at #36. Mims is big, fast but sloppy and unrefined. The latter two traits don't usually worry Gettleman.
37. (from Chargers) Lions - D'Andre Swift - RB - Georgia
The Lions record in finding running backs is absolutely atrocious. They have had one 1,000 yard rusher (Reggie Bush) in 15 seasons. Kerryon Johnson flashed as a rookie but disappointed in 2019 so they could go back to the well for a runner.
38. Panthers - Jeff Gladney - CB - TCU
The Panthers corner play has been woeful for two seasons now. They have to try and address that here. Gladney is an aggressive press man style of corner who makes plays on the football.
39. Dolphins - Grant Delpit - S - LSU
Delpit's 2018 tape was that of a first round pick. He didn't play as well in 2019 and teams will want to probe why that was but the Dolphins have a major need at safety and this is a high ceiling selection.
40. Texans - Josh Uche - OLB - Michigan
I had the debate with a Michigan fan on here the other day about Uche's fit in the NFL and he best projects as a 3-4 OLB. There are not many teams running a 3-4 defense these days but the Texans are one that does.
41. Browns - Malik Harrison - LB - Ohio St
Not a lot of weaknesses on this Browns roster but their linebacking play was sub par in 2019. Mack Wilson might improve in year 2 but they can take another swing at a young talent in Malik Harrison to play the Mike freeing Wilson up to play as the Will.
42. Jaguars - Damon Arnette - CB - Ohio St
A year ago the Jaguars corners were Jalen Ramey and AJ Bouye but that position has now gone from strength to weakness and they need to rebuild. Arnette is a nice scheme fit although asking him to come in and be the #1 guy off the bat is a tall order.
43. Bears - Austin Jackson - OT - USC
The Bears tackle play was wretched in 2019. Truisky's mobility has actually made this line look less woeful than it is. They need to upgrade. Jackson is good value at this spot.
44. Colts - Bradlee Anae - DE - Utah
The Colts spent a first on DeForest Buckner to help their pass rush but he is more of an interior rusher for my money. I still think they need help opposite the veteran Justin Houston on the edge and Anae is a Chris Ballard player if ever I have seen one.
45. Buccaneers - Jonathan Taylor - RB - Wisconsin
I said in round one they needed a running back and here he is. Taylor is my #1 back in this class and if they want a guy Brady is comfortable turning around and handing off to then there is nobody better in this class. If the run on backs starts earlier don't be shocked to see the Buccs jump up for one.

46. Broncos - Brandon Aiyuk - WR - TCU
I decided against giving them Henry Ruggs as Courtland Sutton's new running mate in round 1. Aiyuk is a versatile piece that can play outside or in the slot and allow them to get creative on sweeps and bubble screens.

47. Falcons - AJ Terrell - CB - Clemson

The ice is getting thin now in terms of corners in this class who could come in and start day 1. The Falcons cannot afford to wait and grab Terrell. Not a natural fit in Quinn's cover 3 zone style but has the length necessary to succeed if he can be coached up.
48. Jets - Michael Pittman Jnr - WR - USC

The Jets lost their best receiver when Robby Anderson walked in free agency. Breshard Perriman is a downgrade and they need help at that spot. Pittman is a true outside receiver, with smooth route running ability and good hands.
49. Steelers - JK Dobbins - RB - Ohio St

I am not a big James Conner guy. He has been a nice story but on a roster with very few weak spots I think Pittsburgh should upgrade there if they are prepping for one last run in the Big Ben era.

50. Bears - Antoine Winfield - S - Minnesota
The Bears have a need at safety alongside Eddie Jackson and Winfield, while undersized, is the kind of instinctive player to suits a Chuck Pagano defense.

51. Cowboys - Cole Kmet - TE - Norte Dame

Finally a tight end comes off the board and at this point he is the best player available at a position of need for Dallas. Jason Witten's heir is here.
52. Rams - Darryl Williams - C - Mississippi State

The Rams really missed John Sullivan last year and they need to start getting better up front - especially on the interior of the offensive line. The board helps them with Williams and John Simpson still available but Williams ability to play center just swings my pick.
53. Eagles - Kyle Dugger - S - Lenoir-Rhyne

Having lost Malcolm Jenkins back to the Saints in free agency the Eagles have a need for a playmaker at safety. His size and speed make him ideal for Jim Schwartz's scheme.

54. Bills - Jonathan Greenard - DE - Florida
The Bills might have gone Dugger had he lasted one more pick but they do have a need for youth on the edge and Greenard has the sort of length the Bills look for as a positional prototype.
55. Ravens - Terrell Lewis - OLB - Alabama
Even with Ozzie out of the building I can see the Ravens going back to the Alabama pipeline. Perfect scheme fit and at the right draft value.
56. Dolphins - John Simpson - G - Clemson
The Dolphins must keep improving that line and Simpson can be a day 1 starter at either guard spot.
57. Rams - Clyde Edwards-Helaire - RB - LSU

The Rams moved on from Todd Gurley which leaves a hole that needs filling. Their scheme necessitates a back who is a threat as a receiver as well as a runner. Edwards-Helaire had 55 catches last year.
58. Vikings - Bryce Hall - CB - Virginia
Length. Can play press. Can play zone. Needs to improve his ball skills but just looks like a Mike Zimmer corner in every possible way. 
59. Seahawks - Justin Madubuike - DT - Texas A&M
Seattle must get better up front defensively. I gave them Epenesa in round 1 on the edge and now by adding Madubuike inside, where they retained Jarran Reed who was an impending free agent, the defensive line starts to look a strength again.
60. Ravens - Cam Akers - RB - Florida State
In my version 1.0 of the first round I had the Ravens taking Jonathan Taylor. Yanda's retirement changed that but I still think a young back is a need. Mark Ingram's 30 year old legs did seem to wear down as 2019 went on. They need a guy to share the load. 
61. Titans - Isaiah Wilson - OT - Georgia
Jack Conklin walked in free agency so here is a plug and play replacement at right tackle - which is vital if they still want to be a hard running team that wins in the trenches.
62. Packers - Hunter Bryant - TE - Washington
Hunter Bryant isn't the biggest tight end in the world and he isn't much of a blocker but the Packers have guys who can do that. What they need is a playmaker for Rodgers and Bryant is that Jordan Reed / Aaron Hernandez type move tight end that is almost a slot receiver.
63. Chiefs - Cam Dantzler - CB - Mississippi State
The Chiefs defense did start to turn around a little last year but they still need help on the backend. Dantzler is a pretty good fit for them here and some think he could go much earlier than this.
64. Seahawks - Solomon Kindley - G - Georgia
The Seahawks have sort of stabilised their tackle positions but their interior play still leaves a lot to be desired. They get Justin Britt back but adding Kindley here would be another move towards improving up front.

Edited April 12, 2020 by GunnerBill

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Okay because a few asked for it yesterday here, a bit rough and ready is a round 2 mock to go with version2.0 of round 1:

 

33. Bengals - Tyler Biadasz - C - Wisconsin
The Bengals have weapons for Burrow now they need to focus on protecting him. They have Jonah Williams returning from injury at left tackle, ad Biadasz at center (my #1 IOL in the class) and you have the makings of an oline.
34. Colts - Trevon Diggs - CB - Alabama
Edge rusher and corner are the two weaknesses on the Colts defense. They brought Xavier Rhodes over from the Vikings but a talented young corner like Diggs could represent the future at that spot. 
35. Lions - Marlon Davidson - DT - Auburn
The Lions have lost guys up front in the shape of Damon Harrison and A'Shawn Robinson. They need an upgrade and Davidson is a versatile piece who I think best fits as a slightly undersized interior rusher from the 3 tech spot. 
36. Giants - Denzel Mims - WR - Baylor
I am convinced Gettleman's draft will be about making himself look smart for last year's Daniel Jones pick. A left tackle at #4 and now a wide receiver at #36. Mims is big, fast but sloppy and unrefined. The latter two traits don't usually worry Gettleman.
37. (from Chargers) Lions - D'Andre Swift - RB - Georgia
The Lions record in finding running backs is absolutely atrocious. They have had one 1,000 yard rusher (Reggie Bush) in 15 seasons. Kerryon Johnson flashed as a rookie but disappointed in 2019 so they could go back to the well for a runner.
38. Panthers - Jeff Gladney - CB - TCU
The Panthers corner play has been woeful for two seasons now. They have to try and address that here. Gladney is an aggressive press man style of corner who makes plays on the football.
39. Dolphins - Grant Delpit - S - LSU
Delpit's 2018 tape was that of a first round pick. He didn't play as well in 2019 and teams will want to probe why that was but the Dolphins have a major need at safety and this is a high ceiling selection.
40. Texans - Josh Uche - OLB - Michigan
I had the debate with a Michigan fan on here the other day about Uche's fit in the NFL and he best projects as a 3-4 OLB. There are not many teams running a 3-4 defense these days but the Texans are one that does.
41. Browns - Malik Harrison - LB - Ohio St
Not a lot of weaknesses on this Browns roster but their linebacking play was sub par in 2019. Mack Wilson might improve in year 2 but they can take another swing at a young talent in Malik Harrison to play the Mike freeing Wilson up to play as the Will.
42. Jaguars - Damon Arnette - CB - Ohio St
A year ago the Jaguars corners were Jalen Ramey and AJ Bouye but that position has now gone from strength to weakness and they need to rebuild. Arnette is a nice scheme fit although asking him to come in and be the #1 guy off the bat is a tall order.
43. Bears - Austin Jackson - OT - USC
The Bears tackle play was wretched in 2019. Truisky's mobility has actually made this line look less woeful than it is. They need to upgrade. Jackson is good value at this spot.
44. Colts - Bradlee Anae - DE - Utah
The Colts spent a first on DeForest Buckner to help their pass rush but he is more of an interior rusher for my money. I still think they need help opposite the veteran Justin Houston on the edge and Anae is a Chris Ballard player if ever I have seen one.
45. Buccaneers - Jonathan Taylor - RB - Wisconsin
I said in round one they needed a running back and here he is. Taylor is my #1 back in this class and if they want a guy Brady is comfortable turning around and handing off to then there is nobody better in this class. If the run on backs starts earlier don't be shocked to see the Buccs jump up for one.

46. Broncos - Brandon Aiyuk - WR - TCU
I decided against giving them Henry Ruggs as Courtland Sutton's new running mate in round 1. Aiyuk is a versatile piece that can play outside or in the slot and allow them to get creative on sweeps and bubble screens.

47. Falcons - AJ Terrell - CB - Clemson

The ice is getting thin now in terms of corners in this class who could come in and start day 1. The Falcons cannot afford to wait and grab Terrell. Not a natural fit in Quinn's cover 3 zone style but has the length necessary to succeed if he can be coached up.
48. Jets - Michael Pittman Jnr - WR - USC

The Jets lost their best receiver when Robby Anderson walked in free agency. Breshard Perriman is a downgrade and they need help at that spot. Pittman is a true outside receiver, with smooth route running ability and good hands.
49. Steelers - JK Dobbins - RB - Ohio St

I am not a big James Conner guy. He has been a nice story but on a roster with very few weak spots I think Pittsburgh should upgrade there if they are prepping for one last run in the Big Ben era.

50. Bears - Antoine Winfield - S - Minnesota
The Bears have a need at safety alongside Eddie Jackson and Winfield, while undersized, is the kind of instinctive player to suits a Chuck Pagano defense.

51. Cowboys - Cole Kmet - TE - Norte Dame

Finally a tight end comes off the board and at this point he is the best player available at a position of need for Dallas. Jason Witten's heir is here.
52. Rams - Darryl Williams - C - Mississippi State

The Rams really missed John Sullivan last year and they need to start getting better up front - especially on the interior of the offensive line. The board helps them with Williams and John Simpson still available but Williams ability to play center just swings my pick.
53. Eagles - Kyle Dugger - S - Lenoir-Rhyne

Having lost Malcolm Jenkins back to the Saints in free agency the Eagles have a need for a playmaker at safety. His size and speed make him ideal for Jim Schwartz's scheme.

54. Bills - Jonathan Greenard - DE - Florida
The Bills might have gone Dugger had he lasted one more pick but they do have a need for youth on the edge and Greenard has the sort of length the Bills look for as a positional prototype.
55. Ravens - Terrell Lewis - OLB - Alabama
Even with Ozzie out of the building I can see the Ravens going back to the Alabama pipeline. Perfect scheme fit and at the right draft value.
56. Dolphins - John Simpson - G - Clemson
The Dolphins must keep improving that line and Simpson can be a day 1 starter at either guard spot.
57. Rams - Clyde Edwards-Helaire - RB - LSU

The Rams moved on from Todd Gurley which leaves a hole that needs filling. Their scheme necessitates a back who is a threat as a receiver as well as a runner. Edwards-Helaire had 55 catches last year.
58. Vikings - Bryce Hall - CB - Virginia
Length. Can play press. Can play zone. Needs to improve his ball skills but just looks like a Mike Zimmer corner in every possible way. 
59. Seahawks - Justin Madubuike - DT - Texas A&M
Seattle must get better up front defensively. I gave them Epenesa in round 1 on the edge and now by adding Madubuike inside, where they retained Jarran Reed who was an impending free agent, the defensive line starts to look a strength again.
60. Ravens - Cam Akers - RB - Florida State
In my version 1.0 of the first round I had the Ravens taking Jonathan Taylor. Yanda's retirement changed that but I still think a young back is a need. Mark Ingram's 30 year old legs did seem to wear down as 2019 went on. They need a guy to share the load. 
61. Titans - Isaiah Wilson - OT - Georgia
Jack Conklin walked in free agency so here is a plug and play replacement at right tackle - which is vital if they still want to be a hard running team that wins in the trenches.
62. Packers - Hunter Bryant - TE - Washington
Hunter Bryant isn't the biggest tight end in the world and he isn't much of a blocker but the Packers have guys who can do that. What they need is a playmaker for Rodgers and Bryant is that Jordan Reed / Aaron Hernandez type move tight end that is almost a slot receiver.
63. Chiefs - Cam Dantzler - CB - Mississippi State
The Chiefs defense did start to turn around a little last year but they still need help on the backend. Dantzler is a pretty good fit for them here and some think he could go much earlier than this.
64. Seahawks - Solomon Kindley - G - Georgia
The Seahawks have sort of stabilised their tackle positions but their interior play still leaves a lot to be desired. They get Justin Britt back but adding Kindley here would be another move towards improving up front.

I'm getting tired of saying it but again excellent job. The most interesting issue of the second round is the order in which the RBs come off the board and how quickly they come off the board. I doubt that the Bills will use a second round pick on a back but if they do I would be pleasantly surprised. My prediction is that if the Bills draft a back, maybe in the third round,  it would be AJ Dillon from BC. He's a north/south power back who would be a good complement to Singletary.  

[MrEpsYtown]

I’m guessing on the short list for Bills might be something like:

Winfield

Kmet

Dugger

Greenard

Hall

Simpson

 

[CNYfan]

Why do you like Greenard over Lewis?   

 

I see some analysts much prefer Lewis.  I haven't seen either play so I am interested in your opinion, GB.

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, CNYfan said:

Why do you like Greenard over Lewis?   

 

I see some analysts much prefer Lewis.  I haven't seen either play so I am interested in your opinion, GB.

 

I am not sold on Lewis as an edge rusher and I think it would be a bigger transition for him to come in and play end in a 4-3. Lewis is more of an Alexander replacement for me in the Bills scheme. I think you play him off the ball on early downs and then he can come up and rush in your sub package. I think Lewis is a much better fit for the Ravens 3-4 defense and Greenard is a much better fit for the Bills. 

 

It is true that I am probably a little higher than the consensus on Greenard but he is so versatile and has such great instincts and motor. Lewis is a great athlete but his game is not as nuanced in what it takes to come and play down on the line. 

[MrEpsYtown]

15 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not sold on Lewis as an edge rusher and I think it would be a bigger transition for him to come in and play end in a 4-3. Lewis is more of an Alexander replacement for me in the Bills scheme. I think you play him off the ball on early downs and then he can come up and rush in your sub package. I think Lewis is a much better fit for the Ravens 3-4 defense and Greenard is a much better fit for the Bills. 

 

It is true that I am probably a little higher than the consensus on Greenard but he is so versatile and has such great instincts and motor. Lewis is a great athlete but his game is not as nuanced in what it takes to come and play down on the line. 

Greenard seems like the most absolute perfect fit for what McDermott has traditionally looked for in edge players. I’m with you. Obviously Gross-Matos as well, but he’s out of reach. Those two guys really stand out to me as his type. 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not sold on Lewis as an edge rusher and I think it would be a bigger transition for him to come in and play end in a 4-3. Lewis is more of an Alexander replacement for me in the Bills scheme. I think you play him off the ball on early downs and then he can come up and rush in your sub package. I think Lewis is a much better fit for the Ravens 3-4 defense and Greenard is a much better fit for the Bills. 

 

It is true that I am probably a little higher than the consensus on Greenard but he is so versatile and has such great instincts and motor. Lewis is a great athlete but his game is not as nuanced in what it takes to come and play down on the line. 

I like Greenard too and he’s a guy that has met with the Bills (on a few occasions I believe).

[Motor26]

Would be good with Greenard. They can still get a wideout in the 3rd and trade back into the 3rd or up in the 4th for a running back if they wanted. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I like Greenard too and he’s a guy that has met with the Bills (on a few occasions I believe).

 

I have to say it was @thebandit27 who first recommended I spend time on Greenard. And I am glad I did because the first game I watched was Georgia and I was not that impressed. But those two tackles at Georgia are good players. The more I watched of other games the more I liked. 

[OldTimer1960]

Really great analysis and many thanks for all the time and effort that you obviously put into scouting.

 

I would be pretty lukewarm if the Bills take Greenard in the 2nd.  I know that they need youth at DE, but it seems they will have to talk themselves into liking any of the ends that are likely to be left there.  My preference would be for a prospect at another position even if it leaves them somewhat desperate for young edge help.

 

For sure, Greenard looks like an athlete and has super long arms which can be very helpful as a pass rusher so he has some tools.

 

I know you are much higher on him.  What do you see that makes you feel he is a good 2nd round selection?

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Really great analysis and many thanks for all the time and effort that you obviously put into scouting.

 

I would be pretty lukewarm if the Bills take Greenard in the 2nd.  I know that they need youth at DE, but it seems they will have to talk themselves into liking any of the ends that are likely to be left there.  My preference would be for a prospect at another position even if it leaves them somewhat desperate for young edge help.

 

For sure, Greenard looks like an athlete and has super long arms which can be very helpful as a pass rusher so he has some tools.

 

I know you are much higher on him.  What do you see that makes you feel he is a good 2nd round selection?

 

I said it above really - versatility, length, instincts and motor. 

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I have to say it was @thebandit27 who first recommended I spend time on Greenard. And I am glad I did because the first game I watched was Georgia and I was not that impressed. But those two tackles at Georgia are good players. The more I watched of other games the more I liked. 

Doesn’t he just feel safe to you? I don’t mean that as an insult in anyway either. He feels like a high floor guy to me. Greenard reminds me of Shaq a little bit honestly. Greenard’s game is a little more refined than most of the other edge prospects. He may never be a 15 sack guy but he will get some rush and is solid at the point of attack.