Reid and Mahomes acknowledge impact of Alex Smith

[Codyny13]

I wonder how many weird freaks on this fan board were wearing Mahomes jerseys yesterday, running around telling everyone “they’re my second favorite team!” 

[BigBillsFan]

15 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

#9 in total TDs. (more than Brady, Brees, Cousins, Wentz, Goff, Ryan....)

 

Tied for 1st in 4th Q comebacks.

 

10 wins (only 7 had more).

 

But yeah.....that QBR and YPA.

 

So you want to measure QBs in Kaepernick/RGIII/Lamar Jackson terms? Because that's a good recipe for QB success long term. ?

 

Yeah because wins are a product of the QB, just like Mitch Trubisky in 2018. He led his team! Hey at least Mitch was better in YPA, rating, YPG, and they ended up 12-4. And Brees sucked when they were 7-9 and he threw for 5k yards over 100 QB rating.

 

Oh that's right Mitch is on cusp of losing his job with better competition this year.

 

You see being a QB isn't cherry picking stats that don't matter long-term. If you can't throw a football well and consistently you typically don't keep your job despite rushing yards & TDs, and the INSANE AMAZING 4th quarter comebacks against the Jets, Broncos, and YES the MIGHTY Bengals really got me excited.

[Mr. WEO]

Just now, BigBillsFan said:

 

So you want to measure QBs in Kaepernick/RGIII/Lamar Jackson terms? Because that's a good recipe for QB success long term. ?

 

Yeah because wins are a product of the QB, just like Mitch Trubisky in 2018. He led his team! Hey at least Mitch was better in YPA, rating, YPG, and they ended up 12-4. And Brees sucked when they were 7-9 and he threw for 5k yards over 100 QB rating.

 

Oh that's right Mitch is on cusp of losing his job with better competition this year.

 

You see being a QB isn't cherry picking stats that don't matter long-term. If you can't throw a football well and consistently you typically don't keep your job despite rushing yards & TDs, and the INSANE AMAZING 4th quarter comebacks against the Jets, Broncos, and YES the MIGHTY Bengals really got me excited.

 

 

You will somehow be surprised but certainly disappointed to learn that Allen isn not on the cusp of losing his job.  If you can't discern a difference between his natural talent and Trubisky's, for instance, then there's no discussion to be had.  

 

Nice to see you've written off the NFL MVP already.  

 

Anyway, I'll measure a QB by potential.  29 TDs and 10 wins with Daboll (not Reid) as your play designer and caller, no serious TE,  Mediocre WR, a RB that doesn't run that often and an O-line that still has a long way to go towards decent....that's pretty good.

 

Cherry picking?  Stats that don't matter long term?  You laid down QB rating (AND QBR lol), YPA and fumbles----without a hint of irony.  Strong work, son.

[Fan in Chicago]

5 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/01/29/before-patrick-mahomes-became-superstar-he-followed-blueprint-set-by-alex-smith/

 

 

 

Very classy of Reid and Mahomes to acknowledge Smith. 

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, Fan in Chicago said:

Very classy of Reid and Mahomes to acknowledge Smith. 

 

Gotta feel for Smith.  Gruesome injury and countless complications.

[njbuff]

4 hours ago, Commsvet11 said:

It is a a simple question, yes or no, does Josh Allen have the same success as Mahomes if he is on KC? 
 

 

Yes

[BigBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

You will somehow be surprised but certainly disappointed to learn that Allen isn not on the cusp of losing his job.  If you can't discern a difference between his natural talent and Trubisky's, for instance, then there's no discussion to be had.  

 

Nice to see you've written off the NFL MVP already.  

 

Anyway, I'll measure a QB by potential.  29 TDs and 10 wins with Daboll (not Reid) as your play designer and caller, no serious TE,  Mediocre WR, a RB that doesn't run that often and an O-line that still has a long way to go towards decent....that's pretty good.

 

Cherry picking?  Stats that don't matter long term?  You laid down QB rating (AND QBR lol), YPA and fumbles----without a hint of irony.  Strong work, son.

 

I never said he was on the cusp of losing his job, or that I've written off the MVP (even remotely) so congrats on defeating the best arguments I've never made.

 

I did say if Allen has a bad year next year, or has the same stats as this year his job will be on the line.

 

And yes if you didn't know that QB rating, YPA and fumbles aren't huge components to long-term success than your rose colored glasses aren't changing color soon.

 

COMPARE important stats:

YPA vs rushing per game

Passing TDs vs rushing TDs

Passing yards vs rushing yards

You'll see history hasn't been kind to people who use your stats.

 

BTW I'm not a big fan of QBR but I ask you if QBR and best players have any connection?
https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/season/2019/seasontype/2/table/passing/sort/adjQBR/dir/desc

It appears it's a decent indicator of all the top QBs except Aaron Rodgers this year.

 

Or maybe if Josh Allen can't beat Gardner Minshew on QBR, QB rating, YPA, YPG & more TDs as a QB with 14 games as a rookie than any argument is viable. I mean I would be ecstatic if Allen could have pulled what Nick Mullins did for the 49ers last year this year. Nick Freaking Mullins

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Codyny13 said:

I wonder how many weird freaks on this fan board were wearing Mahomes jerseys yesterday, running around telling everyone “they’re my second favorite team!” 

 

You need to get out more, Mebbe?

 

1 hour ago, njbuff said:

Yes

 

Ooooh, Salty. 

 

 

 

Even I couldn't go quite that far.  I'd have said "no, better than he looks here, but not Mahomes-like"

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, BigBillsFan said:

I never said he was on the cusp of losing his job, or that I've written off the MVP (even remotely) so congrats on defeating the best arguments I've never made.

I did say if Allen has a bad year next year, or has the same stats as this year his job will be on the line.

 

If it's not saying he's on the "cusp of losing his job" to say if he has the same stats as this year his job will be on the line, I'm not sure what is.

 

Quote

Or maybe if Josh Allen can't beat Gardner Minshew on QBR, QB rating, YPA, YPG & more TDs as a QB with 14 games as a rookie than any argument is viable. I mean I would be ecstatic if Allen could have pulled what Nick Mullins did for the 49ers last year this year. Nick Freaking Mullins

 

You do know that the goal of a football team isn't to pile up stats that are better than other team's QB, no?

It's to...wait for it...win football games?

 

I mean, you can go be all ecstatic about Nick Mullins and his 3 wins for the 49ers last year if you like. 

We do know they drafted #2 last year, right, that's how they got Bosa?

[Prickly Pete]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/01/29/before-patrick-mahomes-became-superstar-he-followed-blueprint-set-by-alex-smith/

 

“Alex Smith was great for Patrick,” Chiefs Coach Andy Reid said. “Alex Smith is a great person and a great player. I wish I would have had him when he was young. I got him when he was a little bit older.”

 

 “I attribute a lot of my early success to Alex, the way he was able to be a pro every single day and the way he was able to go about not only being a great football player but a great human being,” Mahomes said. “It showed me a ton. I learned a lot about how to read coverages and blitzes from him. He gave me a blueprint of how to go about a week and preparing yourself. It showed me how to have success at an early point in my career that I don’t think I would have gotten anywhere else.”

 

 

 

 

Now is a time to say nice things. And of course, some reporter probably asked about him, so what are they gonna say "Well, Alex isn't here any more, and he was just kind of in the way of Patrick"?

 

Maybe I'm just prickly because it reminds me of Gore. I think the mentoring is overrated, especially for a RB. I'm sure Alex Smith was helpful, but would some other journeyman, who knew his job depended on helping the Rook, do any different? I think Mahomes was gonna develop just fine with Reid as his mentor. 

 

 

6 hours ago, Commsvet11 said:

It is a a simple question, yes or no, does Josh Allen have the same success as Mahomes if he is on KC? 
 

 

 

 

YES.

 

 

 

 

Edited February 4, 2020 by 32ABBA

[BigBillsFan]

45 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

If it's not saying he's on the "cusp of losing his job" to say if he has the same stats as this year his job will be on the line, I'm not sure what is.

 

1 yr in football is a long time. His job is safe this year. That's not the cusp of losing his job. Football years are like dog years.

 

Quote

 

You do know that the goal of a football team isn't to pile up stats that are better than other team's QB, no?

It's to...wait for it...win football games?

 

I mean, you can go be all ecstatic about Nick Mullins and his 3 wins for the 49ers last year if you like. 

We do know they drafted #2 last year, right, that's how they got Bosa?

 

 

You do know that the goal of winning isn't on 1 person, no? That development and seeing signs they can succeed on the big stage is more important than winning? That people on bad teams aren't responsible for all of the losses or that people like Peyton Manning who showed promise as a rookie was much better than playing it safe for wins right?

 

Nick Mullins in his rookie year showed more than Allen in his and his 2nd year. Are you really going to deny that? If Allen had any games like Mullins THIS year people would be hush hush about development.

 

This isn't a game of magical QBs. You think Brees's 2016 season at 7-9 is because of Brees? Or that the 12-4 Bears last year was because of Trubisky? Brees threw for over 5k yards, 70% completions, over 100 QB rating, over 7 yards a completion and they were still bad because of their defense.

 

Wins don't = QB. Brees played fantastic and for 3 years in a row the Saints were 7-9. Manning in his prime was better than EVERYONE IMO (maybe Rogers is an exception) and only 1 SB and only won his 2nd when he sucked. Did Manning win the big game for the Broncos too? 13-23 141 yards 0 TDs 1 INT.

Edited February 4, 2020 by BigBillsFan

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

7 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

 

Since I specified "in the minds of a number of folks here", how's about I let you take that up with them? 

You know the usual suspects.  They are quite clear that Allen has next year to show he's great, or GROH - "no more excuses"

 

 

Mahomes is listed as 6'3", 230 lbs and our OL in 2017 was actually OK - we managed to be #6 in rush yards gained on the strength of it.

 

I'm not convinced a QB's size makes him sturdier, so unsure Allen's extra 2" and 10 lbs make that much difference.

 

I mean it's not necessarily true that if Allen doesn't take a giant leap forward that he wont amount to anything. Ben Roethlisberger regressed bad in his 3rd year after game managing the first 2, it wasn't until year 4 where he truly became Big Ben. Andy Reid is a hell of a teacher for QB's especially and always surrounds himself with great coaches. I'm not sure if Daboll is the right coach to tudor Josh Allen, his play calling is very bland imo.

[iinii]

9 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

They are acknowledging the impact on Alex Smith's fibula...

 

Those 2017 Bills went to the playoffs--even with the Taylor-Peterman combo.

 

Is Josh Allen, who got killed a lot in his first year starting on the (6-10) Bills, hanging by a thread career-wise?

Thanks for clearing that one up. Revisionist history is always 20/20.

[Thurman#1]

 

 

10 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

Even without Alex Smith Mahomes would be the exact guy he is now.

 

 

Yeah, fans know way better than Andy Reid or Mahomes himself.

 

There's no reason to think you're right about that. He had the whole year to concentrate more on putting together the mechanics and understanding of defenses that he needed to. He didn't have to worry about week-to-week game-planning.

 

When you saw videos of the practices that year, you'd see him again and again ten yards behind Smith, mirroring every step on that rep and going through progressions trying to see what Smith saw and why he did what he did. Having that year was huge, and having it behind a smart guy like Smith made it even more valuable.

 

Reid is a guy known for developing QBs. Him and McCarthy are among the absolute best in the game for developing a QB. That year was valuable for him, very valuable.

[Thurman#1]

10 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

Allen currently is poor, in bottom 1/3rd of all QBs. Sorry that’s just a truth.

 

 

Listen, drop over to the house some time and I'll be glad to teach you the difference between "truth" and "questionable personal opinion."

 

What you've got there is the latter.

[H2o]

[BringBackOrton]

8 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I can't control how you flap your ears

Selective amnesia won’t change the truth.

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

FACTS 2019

Last in YPG
Last in completion %

Last in TDs thrown for 16 starts

Bottom 10% in fumbles

Bottom 33% in QB rating
Bottom 33% in QBR

Bottom 33% in YPA

 

 

 

YPG is a nonsense stat. Depends far too much on how many throws a guy made, play calls, how often his team was ahead and whether they like to run out the clock, as the Bills do, when they are ahead.

 

And what a surprise that you left all the running stuff out!  Gosh, who could have predicted that? Except anyone looking at your agenda, of course.

 

As for the rest of these stats, they're not all that representative of who Allen is now. If he'd stayed the same QB he was through the first four games of the year, we really would be in the position of having to worry. But he didn't. As he said, the NE game was a wakeup call for him and he played much better after it, as all his stats show.

 

Taking passer rating as just one example, if you take his passer rating for the final 12 games of the season, it's not even close to the bottom 33% of starters. It's actually in the top half, 16th to be precise. Hell, his TDs:INTs ratio was 17:3, which put him well in the top third.

 

So even throwing out the run stats, which shouldn't be done, he wasn't bottom third after those first four games. Again, what you have there is a very questionable opinion.

 

 

12 minutes ago, H2o said:

 

 

Doh!!! Right is right, and you're right. Thanks for the reminder.

[Thurman#1]

8 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

#9 in total TDs. (more than Brady, Brees, Cousins, Wentz, Goff, Ryan....)

 

Tied for 1st in 4th Q comebacks.

 

10 wins (only 7 had more).

 

But yeah.....that QBR and YPA.

 

 

 

 

 

As I said....credit Reid for seeing the obvious and picking Mahomes.  I never understood the argument that "x amount of teams passed on him"---that's a testament to bad decision making.

 

Footwork and Mechanics?  They have served him well the past 2 years.  In fact Reid took of advantage of his footwork and "mechanics".  They are the foundation of Mahomes success, as it turns out.  Reid himself would tell you that.....

 

 

 

I believe you're using "footwork and mechanics" in a different way than it was intended, and in a different way than it is usually used about QBs.

 

When he came out of college, he absolutely had some specific traits that were advanced, his ability to adjust arm angles, his unconventional ways of doing things. But those aren't what people generally are referring to when they talk about mechanics.

 

I went back to a (very prescient and smart) pre-draft piece on Mahomes by Matt Waldman. He uses mechanics that way it's meant here, saying Mahomes needed work on his mechanics ... but that you wouldn't want to turn him into a robo-QB. Reid took advantage of his innate abilities but not his mechanics. Here's an excerpt:

 

 

 

"Mahomes will not be a good choice for a team that has a coach or general manager that covets the safety of a passer that thinks, moves, and functions as one of the thousands that could have rolled off an assembly line. It’s not that Mahomes can’t develop into a technically sound quarterback, it’s that he needs an organization that will allow him to build on his strengths. And his strengths are not part of that straight and narrow path of traditional quarterback development.

 

"Mahomes has the caliber of arm and accuracy that allows him to make pinpoint throws without the constant need of fundamentally sound footwork. A former shortstop and son of a major league baseball player, Mahomes throws the football with the accuracy, velocity, and acrobatics of an infielder.

The speed of his feet and Mahomes’ wide range of arm angles and accurate delivery points are rare gifts. Identifying and addressing areas where Mahomes can make easy fixes on traditional drops, sets, and pocket movement is a reasonable expectation for his long-term development. But thinking that Mahomes needs to eliminate the baseball infielder from his game is misguided and dangerous.

 

"Good developers of talent recognize gifts and focus on ways to build on the positives. They also possess the wisdom to ensure that the effort to correct the negatives doesn’t bury the very things that make the individual special.

 

"Learning proper three, five, and seven-step drops with a good setup won’t be difficult long-term, and it will set him up for future success with on-platform throws. We see young passers develop these skills every year. What we don’t see every year is a prospect with fast, fluid, flexible maneuverability, and extreme accuracy with unconventional footwork when forced off-script.

 

"At this point of his career, Mahomes will always have moments where is footwork is sloppy because he’s played long enough with these mechanics that some of his setups and release points will be difficult to change. But with the exception of Mahomes’ opponents, there will be a lot of plays where no one will want him to eliminate these things from his game.

 

"Mahomes can deliver accurate intermediate and long-range passes with velocity and touch. Some of his touch passes, such as a 38-yard completion from the opposite hash thrown with pressure in his face, were calculated strokes of genius.

 

"It’s Mahomes’ skill for delivering the ball with a wide range of velocity, touch, arm slots, and stances that make him dangerous. While he’s not a significant breakaway threat, he’s quick enough to buy time, big enough to shake off defenders, and has the arm talent to successfully target open receivers as the secondary breaks down. These are the skills that made Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Brett Favre stars in the league."

 

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2018/09/22/chiefs-qb-patrick-mahomes-matt-waldmans-rsp-pre-nfl-draft-scouting-report/

 

 

 

Exactly. He still needed to learn mechanics and footwork but you didn't want to take him out of his game when pressure or a good defensive call made things difficult for him.

 

That report was originally written for Waldman's 2017 draft guide and man, did he ever nail it, and it looks like Reid did exactly what Waldman thought whoever picked Mahomes would need to do.

 

Edited February 4, 2020 by Thurman#1

[Mr. WEO]

40 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

 

I believe you're using "footwork and mechanics" in a different way than it was intended, and in a different way than it is usually used about QBs.

 

When he came out of college, he absolutely had some specific traits that were advanced, his ability to adjust arm angles, his unconventional ways of doing things. But those aren't what people generally are referring to when they talk about mechanics.

 

I went back to a (very prescient and smart) pre-draft piece on Mahomes by Matt Waldman. He uses mechanics that way it's meant here, saying Mahomes needed work on his mechanics ... but that you wouldn't want to turn him into a robo-QB. Reid took advantage of his innate abilities but not his mechanics. Here's an excerpt:

 

 

 

"Mahomes will not be a good choice for a team that has a coach or general manager that covets the safety of a passer that thinks, moves, and functions as one of the thousands that could have rolled off an assembly line. It’s not that Mahomes can’t develop into a technically sound quarterback, it’s that he needs an organization that will allow him to build on his strengths. And his strengths are not part of that straight and narrow path of traditional quarterback development.

 

"Mahomes has the caliber of arm and accuracy that allows him to make pinpoint throws without the constant need of fundamentally sound footwork. A former shortstop and son of a major league baseball player, Mahomes throws the football with the accuracy, velocity, and acrobatics of an infielder.

The speed of his feet and Mahomes’ wide range of arm angles and accurate delivery points are rare gifts. Identifying and addressing areas where Mahomes can make easy fixes on traditional drops, sets, and pocket movement is a reasonable expectation for his long-term development. But thinking that Mahomes needs to eliminate the baseball infielder from his game is misguided and dangerous.

 

"Good developers of talent recognize gifts and focus on ways to build on the positives. They also possess the wisdom to ensure that the effort to correct the negatives doesn’t bury the very things that make the individual special.

 

"Learning proper three, five, and seven-step drops with a good setup won’t be difficult long-term, and it will set him up for future success with on-platform throws. We see young passers develop these skills every year. What we don’t see every year is a prospect with fast, fluid, flexible maneuverability, and extreme accuracy with unconventional footwork when forced off-script.

 

"At this point of his career, Mahomes will always have moments where is footwork is sloppy because he’s played long enough with these mechanics that some of his setups and release points will be difficult to change. But with the exception of Mahomes’ opponents, there will be a lot of plays where no one will want him to eliminate these things from his game.

 

"Mahomes can deliver accurate intermediate and long-range passes with velocity and touch. Some of his touch passes, such as a 38-yard completion from the opposite hash thrown with pressure in his face, were calculated strokes of genius.

 

"It’s Mahomes’ skill for delivering the ball with a wide range of velocity, touch, arm slots, and stances that make him dangerous. While he’s not a significant breakaway threat, he’s quick enough to buy time, big enough to shake off defenders, and has the arm talent to successfully target open receivers as the secondary breaks down. These are the skills that made Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, and Brett Favre stars in the league."

 

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2018/09/22/chiefs-qb-patrick-mahomes-matt-waldmans-rsp-pre-nfl-draft-scouting-report/

 

 

 

Exactly. He still needed to learn mechanics and footwork but you didn't want to take him out of his game when pressure or a good defensive call made things difficult for him.

 

That report was originally written for Waldman's 2017 draft guide and man, did he ever nail it, and it looks like Reid did exactly what Waldman thought whoever picked Mahomes would need to do.

 

 

 

This is the part I agree with most---and it hasn't changed for him in KC.  Just go back and watch the SB--he's taking 9 step drops.  He takes the snap and runs back into a clear space to see the field then does his thing.  All year everyone has commented on his unusual delivery (in that he throws it anyway he needs to when the situation demands it).   It really isn't much different from what he was doing in college. 

[JMF2006]

13 hours ago, Commsvet11 said:

If Josh Allen was on KC would they have the same success? 

 

If he had a year behind Alex Smith.....yes.

 

I have said it all along that Alex was as big  a part in Mahomes success as Andy and Eric are.

 

The kid does have talent but he also has more weapons(on field and coaching) than Josh does.

[BigBuff423]

I've said it in other places, and while to me it didn't need to be stated to be understood, thanks Hap for sharing because this to me was a major advantage for Mahomes in KC vs. coming to Buffalo. We've had that discussion ad nauseum and in another thread so I won't take it there. Mahomes' ability to learn, even for just a year, behind a former #1 overall pick was very important and instrumental in getting him to think and act like a Pro. 

 

Of course Mahomes was already supremely gifted and had the internal drive to be the best, but having a mentor of sorts to guide you through that first Rookie season when everything can seem overwhelming, has a profound impact on the first year development. Good for Mahomes and Reid being able to speak openly about it and for Mahomes to be as humble as he was to state that a player who is no longer on the team contributed to his success. 

[Big Turk]

14 hours ago, BuffalothruMyVeins said:

Would it be crazy to maybe see if Smith is available to come in and compete for backup QB with Barkley? I know he had that bad injury, and I believe he has a big contract number with Washington, but in the chance that they cut him... 

 

If we were to bring him in and he were the backup, I think we should get a 3rd QB, bia the draft or whatever, as I'm not thinking Smith would be a great option to actually play more than a few quarters, he would be more of a guy to help Josh Monday-Saturday.

 

Have you lost your mind?  Do you even know anything about Alex Smith right now?  The dude has had 17 surgeries and counting on his leg, almost died from a bacterial infection that turned into sepsis from spreading to his blood and is lucky he can even walk right now.  And you think he is coming back to the NFL?  Are you serious? There is no team in the their right mind that would ever clear him to play football again.  He will be lucky to simply live a normal life and should be over the moon happy if he can simply get back to that point again.

Edited February 4, 2020 by matter2003

[Hebert19]

13 hours ago, Boca BIlls said:

Even without Alex Smith Mahomes would be the exact guy he is now.

Disagree.  

 

Look at how much allen advanced when we brought in DA.  And DA is not near the cerebral QB that alex smith is. Tyrod is not that same guy.  He cannot read defenses and relies on athleticism.  

[Chaos]

27 minutes ago, JMF2006 said:

 

If he had a year behind Alex Smith.....yes.

 

I have said it all along that Alex was as big  a part in Mahomes success as Andy and Eric are.

 

The kid does have talent but he also has more weapons(on field and coaching) than Josh does.

1.  love Josh Allen. Think he will be great.
2. Patrick Mahomes will also be great
3. The super bowl was not the best I have seen Mahomes play. 
4. Regarding "has more weapons".  Kelce and Watkins both made plays in that game that kept drives alive that no bills receiver would have made. Mahome consisently through behind Kelce, whose ability to adjust is amazing.   Three drive saving plays is a huge number in a game.   

[Mr. WEO]

10 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

I never said he was on the cusp of losing his job, or that I've written off the MVP (even remotely) so congrats on defeating the best arguments I've never made.

 

I did say if Allen has a bad year next year, or has the same stats as this year his job will be on the line.

 

And yes if you didn't know that QB rating, YPA and fumbles aren't huge components to long-term success than your rose colored glasses aren't changing color soon.

 

COMPARE important stats:

YPA vs rushing per game

Passing TDs vs rushing TDs

Passing yards vs rushing yards

You'll see history hasn't been kind to people who use your stats.

 

BTW I'm not a big fan of QBR but I ask you if QBR and best players have any connection?
https://www.espn.com/nfl/stats/player/_/season/2019/seasontype/2/table/passing/sort/adjQBR/dir/desc

It appears it's a decent indicator of all the top QBs except Aaron Rodgers this year.

 

Or maybe if Josh Allen can't beat Gardner Minshew on QBR, QB rating, YPA, YPG & more TDs as a QB with 14 games as a rookie than any argument is viable. I mean I would be ecstatic if Allen could have pulled what Nick Mullins did for the 49ers last year this year. Nick Freaking Mullins

 

 

Ah yes....the football world is still abuzz over that sweet Nick Mullens 8 game, 3 win stretch where he threw 13 TDs to go with 10 ints (was working on a nice 26/20 season!).  But

that YPA!!  Conversely, the football world was almost uniformly commenting on how bad Josh Allen looked this year and that he has a single season left to turn it all around. 

 

And since you brought it up:  Mullen's QBR (for a fraction of the season) was 51.7.  Allen's this year was 47.3.  No meaningful difference there.  While 11 QBs were above 60, 8 players were clustered between 47.3 and 53.7, including Brady, Rodgers, Rivers, Goff.

 

 Unfortunately we will never know what your potential source of ecstasy's QBR would be if he had to play a full season... 

[BigBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

Ah yes....the football world is still abuzz over that sweet Nick Mullens 8 game, 3 win stretch where he threw 13 TDs to go with 10 ints (was working on a nice 26/20 season!).  But

that YPA!!  Conversely, the football world was almost uniformly commenting on how bad Josh Allen looked this year and that he has a single season left to turn it all around. 

 

And since you brought it up:  Mullen's QBR (for a fraction of the season) was 51.7.  Allen's this year was 47.3.  No meaningful difference there.  While 11 QBs were above 60, 8 players were clustered between 47.3 and 53.7, including Brady, Rodgers, Rivers, Goff.

 

 Unfortunately we will never know what your potential source of ecstasy's QBR would be if he had to play a full season... 

 

Wait you do realize his 3-5 record is the same as Allen's right? Except his defense sucked that year. You also realize we're comparing an undrafted QB to a 1st rounder too right?

 

Perfect game to compare...

 

If Allen had a game like this: https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2018120213/2018/REG13/49ers@seahawks

And we lost we would all be excited for his potential. Wilson threw horribly that game, but the Seahawks ran the ball great, while 49ers fumbled and couldn't run the ball.

 

And YES ALLEN won this game in 2018 against the Titans with his UNREAL and border PRETERNATURAL ability at 10/19 passing for 82 yards

https://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2018100700/2018/REG5/titans@bills

 

But let's all pretend the Mullins sucked and LOST that game, but Allen was responsible for the win just like Brees sucked when they went 7-9 3 years in a row.

 

The fact we can argue Mullins vs Allen is the joke right now. That's my point.

 

[BigBillsFan]

5 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

YPG is a nonsense stat. Depends far too much on how many throws a guy made, play calls, how often his team was ahead and whether they like to run out the clock, as the Bills do, when they are ahead.

 

And what a surprise that you left all the running stuff out!  Gosh, who could have predicted that? Except anyone looking at your agenda, of course....

 

So even throwing out the run stats, which shouldn't be done, he wasn't bottom third after those first four games. Again, what you have there is a very questionable opinion.

 

YPG is some measurement of success. A QB throwing under 200 yards per game will typically score less points. The correlation is obvious. Being LAST in that category practically means we have to score 17 points to win and keep the opponent under that.

 

We're not talking about middle of the pack, we're talking about LAST. LAST in YPG = sucks.

 

YPG is a non-sense stat IF you're an amazing running team with sustained success. Big Ben's stats his first 3 years are an indicator of that. He walked into a great situation. If that was our identity I would agree with you. Ben as a rookie threw only 187 YPG but his YPA was 8.9 and his accuracy was 66%. Teams had to respect his arm.

 

Also only 18 teams were over 200 yards per game in passing in 2004 & 2005 (Ben's rookie year), today that number is 27 teams are over 200 yards.

 

Of course I left out running, no QB ever has succeeded long term as a running QB. We'll talk about how amazing Lamar Jackson DID in 2019 and maybe 2020 but not in 2025 unless he develops in the pocket. Men peak in speed around 22-26 years of age and after taking shots it goes down rapidly.

 

Running stats have NEVER been a measure of a QB success long-term. If I'm wrong name me one, if I'm right realize you're the troll

[The Process]

18 hours ago, njbuff said:

 

Tyrod was so bad in 2017 that the Bills thrust Nathan Peterman out there.

 

Which means a talented kid like Mahomes would have been starting the 3rd or 4th week of the season when he wasn't ready and would have gotten killed on the Bills 2017 offense.

 

Mahomes would have been playing in 2017 and his career would be hanging on by a thread right now.

 

No Kelce's, no Hill's, no Hunts (when Mahomes first started) on that 2017 Bills team.

Two Kelces? Two Hills? Two Hunts? .....I'm so confused.

[CincyBillsFan]

It's possible that several things can be true at the same time such as:

 

*  Mahomes is a great QB and looks to be a generational talent.

 

*  Mahomes came into the NFL in the BEST situation a rookie QB could hope for.  From coaching to surrounding offensive talent to first class mentor at QB show me a QB who started their career in a better situation?

 

*  Mahomes is unlikely to have matched his KC performance had he been drafted by the Bills in 2017.

 

*  Allen is likely to have progressed faster & put up better numbers had he been put into the same situation with the Chiefs that Mahomes was.  Watching the SB and imagining Allen starting in place of Mahomes and I frankly think the result would have been similar.

 

*  IMO when we look back on all this in 5 years everyone will agree that it was a HUGE WIN/WIN for both teams.  Both the Bills & Chiefs will have their SB winning Franchise QB's and the Bills will have an all pro CB & LB to go along with it.

 

 

 

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

1 yr in football is a long time. His job is safe this year. That's not the cusp of losing his job. Football years are like dog years.

 

"Improve Big this year or you're done here" sounds the cusp of losing his job for a #7 overall pick at the most important position on the team, but whateves.

 

Quote

You do know that the goal of winning isn't on 1 person, no? That development and seeing signs they can succeed on the big stage is more important than winning? That people on bad teams aren't responsible for all of the losses or that people like Peyton Manning who showed promise as a rookie was much better than playing it safe for wins right?

 

Nick Mullins in his rookie year showed more than Allen in his and his 2nd year. Are you really going to deny that? If Allen had any games like Mullins THIS year people would be hush hush about development.

 

I'm just not going to prolong debate with a guy who can make the above statements. I'll just point out the paradox of simultaneously pointing out the impact of the team, vs the claim that Mullins in his rookie season showed more than Allen in his 2nd year.  Then there's the point that CJ Beathard is still on the roster as the #2 guy.

 

If Nick Mullins were regarded around the league as more promising than a 2018 1st round pick who outplayed 2 other 1st round picks this season, don't you think GMs would be burning up the phone lines to SF playing "let's make a deal"?  I don't want to diss on the guy - he came in and did what he was asked to do, reasonably well.  But the fact that his completed air yards per pass attempt are 3.9 and his YAC > CAY really should tell you what that was.

 

 

Now I'm out.

[dickleyjones]

18 hours ago, Commsvet11 said:

It is a a simple question, yes or no, does Josh Allen have the same success as Mahomes if he is on KC? 
 

haha yeah it's a "simple question"...with no way of knowing the correct answer.

[BigBillsFan]

1 minute ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Let's just say that if it were true that Mullins in his rookie year showed more than a #7 draft pick in his second season, GMs across the league from teams who need QB would be burning up the phone lines to make a deal for the guy.

 

I'll just point out the paradox of simultaneously pointing out the impact of the team, vs the claim that Mullins in his rookie season showed more than Allen in his 2nd year, then I'm out.

 

There are tons of guys who show massive promise as a rookie or their 2nd year but aren't a high pick and waste their careers with no opportunities because they weren't drafted as high. Duck Hodges was better in practice than Mason Randolph but they played him even when it was obvious he was stinking up the joint.

 

Same was true between Trent and Losman, and RGIII and Cousins.

 

Do you really think Trent Green was better than Kurt Warner until his injury or that Eli Manning was better than Warner, or that Matt Leinart was better than Warner?

 

Facts are coaches are forced to play inferior players because the GMs and possibly coaches are forced to look smart with whom they drafted because they see a higher upside.

 

I've seen you post a bunch, you know this is true. Players rarely get a fair shake and teams are willing to lose rather than miss on QB to make their point. Whaley went so far to blow 2 1sts on Watkins to save his job to salvage EJ.

 

The 1st round is a grave yard of GMs careers wanting to be proved correct on the QB. Just ask Brian Billick was a great coach turned heel over Boller. GMs and coaches even destroy their QB roster to give the 1st rounder confidence they won't lose their job. I mean why in the world would you keep Peterman over McCarron?

 

A lot of QBs are never given a fair shake just because of where they are drafted.

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

 

 

The fact we can argue Mullins vs Allen is the joke right now.

 

 

yes.  yes it is...it's quite laughable.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

5 hours ago, matter2003 said:

Have you lost your mind?  Do you even know anything about Alex Smith right now?  The dude has had 17 surgeries and counting on his leg, almost died from a bacterial infection that turned into sepsis from spreading to his blood and is lucky he can even walk right now.  And you think he is coming back to the NFL?  Are you serious? There is no team in the their right mind that would ever clear him to play football again.  He will be lucky to simply live a normal life and should be over the moon happy if he can simply get back to that point again.

 

If he's cleared to play football, he is not a FA; he is under contract to Washington, and Rivera has said he will compete for their QB job.

[formerlyofCtown]

18 hours ago, Albany,n.y. said:

Nonsense! The 2017 Bills had a decent OL with Wood & Incognito still around.  They also had a younger Shady at RB.  They won 9 games & made the playoffs.  If Mahomes was the QB, they would have had a ton of early picks in 2018 to shore up the O-line (after Wood & Incognito) left & get a WR or 2.  

 

If Mahomes was playing in 2017 the Bills would be Super Bowl champs today.  

You don’t know that.

 

Josh Allen is our QB and I’m glad he is.  Enough of the nonsense.  If it matters that much then go get you a red jersey.

[2003Contenders]

20 minutes ago, BigBillsFan said:

 

There are tons of guys who show massive promise as a rookie or their 2nd year but aren't a high pick and waste their careers with no opportunities because they weren't drafted as high. Duck Hodges was better in practice than Mason Randolph but they played him even when it was obvious he was stinking up the joint.

 

Same was true between Trent and Losman, and RGIII and Cousins.

 

Do you really think Trent Green was better than Kurt Warner until his injury or that Eli Manning was better than Warner, or that Matt Leinart was better than Warner?

 

Facts are coaches are forced to play inferior players because the GMs and possibly coaches are forced to look smart with whom they drafted because they see a higher upside.

 

I've seen you post a bunch, you know this is true. Players rarely get a fair shake and teams are willing to lose rather than miss on QB to make their point. Whaley went so far to blow 2 1sts on Watkins to save his job to salvage EJ.

 

The 1st round is a grave yard of GMs careers wanting to be proved correct on the QB. Just ask Brian Billick was a great coach turned heel over Boller. GMs and coaches even destroy their QB roster to give the 1st rounder confidence they won't lose their job. I mean why in the world would you keep Peterman over McCarron?

 

A lot of QBs are never given a fair shake just because of where they are drafted.

 

This is a fair take.

 

The reality is that even as a Josh Allen doubter, you have to acknowledge that given the reality of what you stated above, the Bills will provide him with at least the next 2 years to sink or swim.

 

Bill Parcells always said that teams have a 4-year strategy when it comes to assessing highly drafted young QBs. Year 1: he is a rookie learning what it is like to be an NFL QB, so that season serves as a mulligan (assuming the talent flashes are there). Year 2: Signs of improvement need to show up. Year 3: He needs to show the ability to go out and win games. Year 4: You either have your Franchise QB or decide to move on.

 

By any measure, Josh Allen is well on track. Let's hope he continues the progression entering his 3rd season.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

8 hours ago, BringBackOrton said:

Selective amnesia won’t change the truth.

 

 

Not an issue of selective memory here.  I'm sure you heard it; I hear all kinds of stuff on this board all the time. 

Doesn't make them reasonable assertions or "truths" to propagate down the years, as a comparison of Tyrod Taylor's vs Alex Smith's actual playing careers would reveal.

 

 

[Commsvet11]

38 minutes ago, dickleyjones said:

haha yeah it's a "simple question"...with no way of knowing the correct answer.

There is no right answer, it just shows the thought process some people have, so far I have had three people say that Yes Josh Allen would have the same success as Mahomes if he was on KC team. 

 

 

[BigBillsFan]

10 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

 

This is a fair take.

 

The reality is that even as a Josh Allen doubter, you have to acknowledge that given the reality of what you stated above, the Bills will provide him with at least the next 2 years to sink or swim.

 

Bill Parcells always said that teams have a 4-year strategy when it comes to assessing highly drafted young QBs. Year 1: he is a rookie learning what it is like to be an NFL QB, so that season serves as a mulligan (assuming the talent flashes are there). Year 2: Signs of improvement need to show up. Year 3: He needs to show the ability to go out and win games. Year 4: You either have your Franchise QB or decide to move on.

 

By any measure, Josh Allen is well on track. Let's hope he continues the progression entering his 3rd season.

 

Here's the crazy thing... I'm not a Josh doubter at all, I want him to get the chance to be a great QB. I want him to start next season.

 

Here's what I hope for... turn him into a simpler QB, focus more on running the ball and have him just throw faster out of his hand. I wouldn't care if we really become a running team. I see flaws he can grow into, I just don't think Daboll will do that. I think he'll try to outsmart the opposing DC.

 

I really don't think if he does dink and dunk with a strong running game and an above TE we can't have success with this defense and I certainly think Allen's first half in the playoffs shows he can do even more than that. But give him a chance.

 

I don't think Daboll is allowing that, and I think he'll ruin Allen's chances.