The Next Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19

[RochesterRob]

17 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Almost half of American's don't have $400 saved in a bank account. Many investment firms are suggesting GDP is going to drop double digits over the next quarter. Goldman just came out and said they think it'll drop 24%. 

It's going to be economic Armageddon for 6+ months. Businesses all over the US are going to go out of business. Millions of people will lose everything. This is going to be way worse than 2008/09. 

  If all that happens unemployment will be well above 20 percent.

[jrober38]

Just now, RochesterRob said:

  If all that happens unemployment will be well above 20 percent.

 

Why would any of it not happen?

 

Jobless claims this week are going to be between 2 and 3 million. 

[Buffalo_Gal]

5 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

Agreed. If you have the cash reserves everything will be fine.

 

For the vast majority of Americans that's not the case though. Anyone working at a restaurant who doesn't make food has essentially already been laid off. Hotels are going to go out of business in mass over the next month with occupancy rates somewhere between 5-10%. Airlines will go out of business, with only a few major carriers surviving. They'll all lay off a huge portion of their work force. The service industry will also be decimated. With people at home now, nannies, house keepers, gardeners, etc will be crushed as people cut costs. The auto industry is going to experience 2008 all over again.

 

It's going to be really bad. I'm very disappointed the government hasn't done more to shut things down entirely. I think if they'd shut everything down and made everyone shelter in place for a month starting at the beginning of last week I think we'd be good by the end of May. Now I think it lingers into the summer, and I'm not sure the economy can wait that long. 

So, your synopsis is: this is going to be horrible, let’s do it for longer?  

Edited March 23, 2020 by Buffalo_Gal

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

So, your synopsis is: this is going to be horrible, let’s do it for longer?  

 

That's not what I said.

 

I said that if they'd shut everything down early last week for a month, that I think we'd be on the way out like China is about 45 days from now.

 

Because they didn't, I think this is going to be a major problem with the economy mostly shuttered until the summer. 

[Buffalo_Gal]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

That's not what I said.

 

I said that if they'd shut everything down early last week for a month, that I think we'd be on the way out like China is about 45 days from now.

 

Because they didn't, I think this is going to be a major problem with the economy mostly shuttered until the summer. 

Ummm if the economy is crashing after a week of shutting many things down, what in the world would be left after shutting everything down for 45 days? You are not making any sense.

[Doc]

4 hours ago, Foxx said:

umm... i'll take none of the above for $2000, Alex.

 

 

additionally, i didn't say that you couldn't take chloroquine. i have no idea what the safe dosage is or would be. i only know that prolonged exposeure can lead to blindness and that in the Amazonian Basin, they have doctors there that advise child bearing age women not to take it regardless of the malarial risk.

 

I know you didn't.  But duration seems to be the key with chloroquine and blindness.  People won't be on it for long.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

 

Sad  

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Gal said:

Ummm if the economy is crashing after a week of shutting many things down, what in the world would be left after shutting everything down for 45 days? You are not making any sense.

 

I imagine most businesses can survive if they know they'll be reopening in 45 days.

 

Forcing restaurants, hotels and airlines to indefinitely operate in the red doesn't make any sense.

 

The restaurant, hotel and airline industries are all going out of business unless something drastic is done. 

[RochesterRob]

5 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

That's not what I said.

 

I said that if they'd shut everything down early last week for a month, that I think we'd be on the way out like China is about 45 days from now.

 

Because they didn't, I think this is going to be a major problem with the economy mostly shuttered until the summer. 

  It would help my faith in the Chinese to let the Red Cross come in and verify these claims but we both know that will not happen.  Might as well tell me that 99 percent of the public voted for their leader just like Putin and Lil' Kim claim in their countries.

Edited March 23, 2020 by RochesterRob

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

Sad  

 

It's getting exponentially worse.

 

Hospitals aren't even at capacity yet. Soon they won't be able to treat new patients because they'll be out of ventilators and just like in Italy and Spain people will be left dying in hospital hallways.

 

This is a disaster that's incredibly hard to wrap your head around. 

[Buffalo_Gal]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

I know you didn't.  But duration seems to be the key with chloroquine and blindness.  People won't be on it for long.

Question, if you know (maybe no one knows)... before we went away, my doctor looked up recommended CDC shots for where we would be traveling. A malaria vaccine  was discussed. What is the difference between the shot and the pills they are giving people? And, if the pills work, would the vaccine? Or, is that apples and oranges?

[jrober38]

Just now, RochesterRob said:

  It would help my faith in the Chinese to let the Red Cross come in and verify these claims but we both know that will not happen.  Might as well tell me that 99 percent of the public voted for their leader just like Putin and Lil' Kim claim in their countries.

 

Why does China matter?

 

Can you even leave China right now?

 

No one new is getting into the US from anywhere in the world. The border is completely closed.

 

What's happening elsewhere is completely irrelevant at this point. 

[RochesterRob]

2 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

I imagine most businesses can survive if they know they'll be reopening in 45 days.

 

Forcing restaurants, hotels and airlines to indefinitely operate in the red doesn't make any sense.

 

The restaurant, hotel and airline industries are all going out of business unless something drastic is done. 

  Most businesses have creditors and often those creditors have people to answer to.  It is not as simple as will power.

[jrober38]

Just now, RochesterRob said:

  Most businesses have creditors and often those creditors have people to answer to.  It is not as simple as will power.

 

That's why it has to come from the Federal Government.

 

Europe is already doing it. No rent payments due, no mortgage payments due, no interest on your credit cards, no utility bills.

 

Just stay in your damn house. 

 

That's what the US needs to do, and will eventually do. That's the end game. Just need to decide when to get there. 

[GG]

7 hours ago, TPS said:

Pueyo links to an article on temps and virus, which suggests there "may" be an impact. Looking at the data for Australia and Brazil, however, both are on exponential growth paths currently.

 

I just read his first piece, and it's hot garbage in retrospect, yet he crows that he got 40 millions hits.  Only because he's perpetuating the falsehoods that is now gospel, but will likely look foolish when this is said and done.

 

It's actually good to read his second piece after the first, because you realize that he doesn't address his wrong prognostications at all and continues with the alarmist tone.  South Korea exponential growth?  Mmm, never mind.  According to him it's because they went through SARS, and knew what to do.  Which is what ....?   

 

Washington State follow up?   Nope, not a peep.

 

Diamond Princess?  Clearly a statistical anomaly.  But Italy isn't.   

 

He lumped the Swiss as one of the countries who were late in responding, without noting that the country has negligible deaths from CV.

 

Which brings me to the biggest problem of painting this virus with as broad brush as possible.  As we're about to finish the third month in a pandemic, clear patterns are emerging despite what people like Puevo want you to believe, and that pattern is much closer to Leavitt's & Ginn's theories.

 

Culture, demographics and climate all play a major role in the spread, and that's why you are seeing an explosion in Lombardy & NYC (Australia is not a problem btw).  Other areas of the Italy are faring much better, and don't get me started on NYS north of Orange County compared to the NY metro area.  Even the NY's first major outbreak in New Rochelle appears to be abating, similarly to what happened in Washington.  But that's not NYC because people are on top of one another, and they're stupid.  I witnessed what Cuomo was talking about first hand yesterday.  All along the West Side, it was as if there's no danger lurking.   

 

I drove to work to pick up some things for my mandatory six week work from home assignment, and I've never seen the roads so empty.  But when I got into NYC, there were still a lot of people out and walking very close together.  No cars, so I got a spot right next to my office.  Never, ever happens in real life.  Quick five minute trip to the office, waive the id card, turnstyle opens, elevator automatically summoned to my floor.  Wash hands when I get to my floor.  Pick up my stuff, only hit one elevator button, Purell on my hands when I hit ground floor.  Get to my car and there are two morons sharing a conversation & a smoke next to my car.   I walk around the other side to drop the gear in the trunk, and they don't move.  They finally get the hint and move a bit.   So yeah, this is why NYC cases are exploding.

 

This is not to say that I'm dismissing the seriousness of the virus.  I'm just pointing out the inconsistency in the messaging and the response for the entire country as a one size fits all.  Heck, even NJ isn't experiencing the same urgency as NYC, but Murphy is treating it as if it's ground zero.

 

Very few people are getting airtime to propose commonsense solutions.  Hype sells.

 

We keep getting bombarded by stories of Chinese, South Korean and Singapore lockdowns, without getting much details of what happened.  Reality is none of these countries truly locked down.  And here's where experience with SARS and their culture came in to curb the spread.  EVERYONE obeyed common social norms, they wore masks, they kept their distance and they washed their hands.   Lo and behold, the spread slowed down and spread.  Not so hard.  Avoid direct contact and keep washing yourself.

[PetermansRedemption]

I’m pretty shocked that in such a time of need bipartisan bickering couldn’t stop for a mere day to get something done. The two party system in America truly needs to end. The divide between them has become far too great to have a functioning government. 

[3rdnlng]

26 minutes ago, PetermansRedemption said:

I’m pretty shocked that in such a time of need bipartisan bickering couldn’t stop for a mere day to get something done. The two party system in America truly needs to end. The divide between them has become far too great to have a functioning government. 

It will be interesting (but typical I assume) what Pelosi & Schumer are holding out for. It has to be something on their socialist agenda. 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

52 minutes ago, GG said:

 

I just read his first piece, and it's hot garbage in retrospect, yet he crows that he got 40 millions hits.  Only because he's perpetuating the falsehoods that is now gospel, but will likely look foolish when this is said and done.

 

It's actually good to read his second piece after the first, because you realize that he doesn't address his wrong prognostications at all and continues with the alarmist tone.  South Korea exponential growth?  Mmm, never mind.  According to him it's because they went through SARS, and knew what to do.  Which is what ....?   

 

Washington State follow up?   Nope, not a peep.

 

Diamond Princess?  Clearly a statistical anomaly.  But Italy isn't.   

 

He lumped the Swiss as one of the countries who were late in responding, without noting that the country has negligible deaths from CV.

 

Which brings me to the biggest problem of painting this virus with as broad brush as possible.  As we're about to finish the third month in a pandemic, clear patterns are emerging despite what people like Puevo want you to believe, and that pattern is much closer to Leavitt's & Ginn's theories.

 

Culture, demographics and climate all play a major role in the spread, and that's why you are seeing an explosion in Lombardy & NYC (Australia is not a problem btw).  Other areas of the Italy are faring much better, and don't get me started on NYS north of Orange County compared to the NY metro area.  Even the NY's first major outbreak in New Rochelle appears to be abating, similarly to what happened in Washington.  But that's not NYC because people are on top of one another, and they're stupid.  I witnessed what Cuomo was talking about first hand yesterday.  All along the West Side, it was as if there's no danger lurking.   

 

I drove to work to pick up some things for my mandatory six week work from home assignment, and I've never seen the roads so empty.  But when I got into NYC, there were still a lot of people out and walking very close together.  No cars, so I got a spot right next to my office.  Never, ever happens in real life.  Quick five minute trip to the office, waive the id card, turnstyle opens, elevator automatically summoned to my floor.  Wash hands when I get to my floor.  Pick up my stuff, only hit one elevator button, Purell on my hands when I hit ground floor.  Get to my car and there are two morons sharing a conversation & a smoke next to my car.   I walk around the other side to drop the gear in the trunk, and they don't move.  They finally get the hint and move a bit.   So yeah, this is why NYC cases are exploding.

 

This is not to say that I'm dismissing the seriousness of the virus.  I'm just pointing out the inconsistency in the messaging and the response for the entire country as a one size fits all.  Heck, even NJ isn't experiencing the same urgency as NYC, but Murphy is treating it as if it's ground zero.

 

Very few people are getting airtime to propose commonsense solutions.  Hype sells.

 

We keep getting bombarded by stories of Chinese, South Korean and Singapore lockdowns, without getting much details of what happened.  Reality is none of these countries truly locked down.  And here's where experience with SARS and their culture came in to curb the spread.  EVERYONE obeyed common social norms, they wore masks, they kept their distance and they washed their hands.   Lo and behold, the spread slowed down and spread.  Not so hard.  Avoid direct contact and keep washing yourself.

 

Right glad you are ok from NYC. I'm sure possibly you made some precautions. Ya looks like it's going to get bad there. Make sure be careful there. if you can don't go there anytime soon. 

 

 

Assuming lots police for NYC infected. Possibly.  

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

https://nypost.com/2020/03/22/loss-of-taste-and-smell-could-be-crucial-symptoms-of-coronavirus/

 

The loss of taste and smell could be crucial warning signs in “hidden carriers” of the novel coronavirus, experts have revealed.

The British Association of Otorhinolaryngology — which represents ear, nose and throat specialists — says the loss of senses often appears in patients who show none of the earlier known symptoms.

“In young patients, they do not have any significant symptoms such as the cough and fever, but they may have just the loss of sense of smell and taste,” the association’s president, professor Nirmal Kumar, told Sky News.

The association said in a statement that anosmia or hyposmia — the medical terms for the loss of smell — have particularly been noted in COVID-19 hotspots around the globe.

 

 

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2882452-rudy-gobert-says-he-lost-senses-of-smell-and-taste-amid-coronavirus-diagnosis

 

Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert described his worsening symptoms associated with the coronavirus Sunday on Twitter:

Rudy Gobert

 

✔@rudygobert27

 

 

Just to give you guys an update, loss of smell and taste is definitely one of the symptoms, haven’t been able to smell anything for the last 4 days. Anyone experiencing the same thing?

 

7,696

3:39 PM - Mar 22, 2020

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1,741 people are talking about this

 

 

 

Gobert was the first NBA player to test positive for COVID-19, although he was asymptomatic at the time and was preparing to play in a game until he received his test results, according to Shams Charania of Stadium and The Athletic.

 

 

More and more people loss of taste and smell.  Def with it thinking now.

 

[SoCal Deek]

37 minutes ago, 3rdnlng said:

It will be interesting (but typical I assume) what Pelosi & Schumer are holding out for. It has to be something on their socialist agenda. 

Those two clowns have a ‘me first’ agenda. Socialism is way too much work for either of them to bother with. 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

 

[Kevbeau]

1 hour ago, GG said:

 

I just read his first piece, and it's hot garbage in retrospect, yet he crows that he got 40 millions hits.  Only because he's perpetuating the falsehoods that is now gospel, but will likely look foolish when this is said and done.

 

It's actually good to read his second piece after the first, because you realize that he doesn't address his wrong prognostications at all and continues with the alarmist tone.  South Korea exponential growth?  Mmm, never mind.  According to him it's because they went through SARS, and knew what to do.  Which is what ....?   

 

Washington State follow up?   Nope, not a peep.

 

Diamond Princess?  Clearly a statistical anomaly.  But Italy isn't.   

 

He lumped the Swiss as one of the countries who were late in responding, without noting that the country has negligible deaths from CV.

 

Which brings me to the biggest problem of painting this virus with as broad brush as possible.  As we're about to finish the third month in a pandemic, clear patterns are emerging despite what people like Puevo want you to believe, and that pattern is much closer to Leavitt's & Ginn's theories.

 

Culture, demographics and climate all play a major role in the spread, and that's why you are seeing an explosion in Lombardy & NYC (Australia is not a problem btw).  Other areas of the Italy are faring much better, and don't get me started on NYS north of Orange County compared to the NY metro area.  Even the NY's first major outbreak in New Rochelle appears to be abating, similarly to what happened in Washington.  But that's not NYC because people are on top of one another, and they're stupid.  I witnessed what Cuomo was talking about first hand yesterday.  All along the West Side, it was as if there's no danger lurking.   

 

I drove to work to pick up some things for my mandatory six week work from home assignment, and I've never seen the roads so empty.  But when I got into NYC, there were still a lot of people out and walking very close together.  No cars, so I got a spot right next to my office.  Never, ever happens in real life.  Quick five minute trip to the office, waive the id card, turnstyle opens, elevator automatically summoned to my floor.  Wash hands when I get to my floor.  Pick up my stuff, only hit one elevator button, Purell on my hands when I hit ground floor.  Get to my car and there are two morons sharing a conversation & a smoke next to my car.   I walk around the other side to drop the gear in the trunk, and they don't move.  They finally get the hint and move a bit.   So yeah, this is why NYC cases are exploding.

 

This is not to say that I'm dismissing the seriousness of the virus.  I'm just pointing out the inconsistency in the messaging and the response for the entire country as a one size fits all.  Heck, even NJ isn't experiencing the same urgency as NYC, but Murphy is treating it as if it's ground zero.

 

Very few people are getting airtime to propose commonsense solutions.  Hype sells.

 

We keep getting bombarded by stories of Chinese, South Korean and Singapore lockdowns, without getting much details of what happened.  Reality is none of these countries truly locked down.  And here's where experience with SARS and their culture came in to curb the spread.  EVERYONE obeyed common social norms, they wore masks, they kept their distance and they washed their hands.   Lo and behold, the spread slowed down and spread.  Not so hard.  Avoid direct contact and keep washing yourself.

It’s my job to predict the short and long term impacts to my company. I’m looking at international cases/impact and all the way to zip code cases/impact for the US... and it’s all noise. A lot due to testing and cause of death recording differences, but there’s clearly a randomness in the data that I believe is inline with what your describing. The f’n error bars on anything we come up with tells me we might as well guess.

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

 

[Deranged Rhino]

Here's the bill for those interested: 

https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6815336-Senate-Republicans-Phase-3-stimulus-proposal.html

[ALF]

Florida college students test positive for coronavirus after spring break trip

 

https://www.foxnews.com/health/florida-college-students-test-positive-for-coronavirus-after-spring-break-trip

 

Florida Sen. Scott: 'Spring breakers have forced the shutdown' of beaches

 

Virginia teens allegedly recorded themselves coughing on produce in grocery store: police

 

https://www.foxnews.com/us/virginia-teens-coughing-produce-grocery-store

 

Canada and Australia will not send athletes to Tokyo Olympics

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/22/americas/canada-no-athletes-tokyo-olympics/index.html

 

Crowds packed California beaches despite shelter in place order

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/23/us/california-stay-at-home-beach-goers/index.html

Edited March 23, 2020 by ALF

[Doc Brown]

8 hours ago, PetermansRedemption said:

I’m pretty shocked that in such a time of need bipartisan bickering couldn’t stop for a mere day to get something done. The two party system in America truly needs to end. The divide between them has become far too great to have a functioning government. 

Really?  Do you remember the first failed TARP vote back in '08?  It failed and the market went bonkers.  A revised version passed a couple days later.  This is two trillion dollars we're talking about.  Let's try and get it right.

[PetermansRedemption]

31 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Really?  Do you remember the first failed TARP vote back in '08?  It failed and the market went bonkers.  A revised version passed a couple days later.  This is two trillion dollars we're talking about.  Let's try and get it right.

Doc, you and I both know this thing is going to be loaded with a heck of a lot of waste and useless earmarking no matter how long they take on it. 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

 

[JetsFan20]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

Really?  Do you remember the first failed TARP vote back in '08?  It failed and the market went bonkers.  A revised version passed a couple days later.  This is two trillion dollars we're talking about.  Let's try and get it right.

There was not nearly the sense of urgency in 2008 that there is today when people are dying. It could take weeks for these #######s to get something to do something. 

 

I don’t believe Pelosi and Schumer really want the market to crash (they have millions on the line as well), but I do think they are concerned of a pro Trump perception. If that’s the case they need to get off their high horses and act like elected officials. 

[Buffalo Bills Fan]

 

Sadly Spain looks like heading towards Italy cases, ICU, and Deaths.  

2 minutes ago, JetsFan20 said:

There was not nearly the sense of urgency in 2008 that there is today when people are dying. It could take weeks for these #######s to get something to do something. 

 

I don’t believe Pelosi and Schumer really want the market to crash (they have millions on the line as well), but I do think they are concerned of a pro Trump perception. If that’s the case they need to get off their high horses and act like elected officials. 

 

Right biggest problem with Pelosi. She's does shady things behind people backs. Makes people not to trust her. If she didn't do any shady stuff things will be easier to get done.

[Tiberius]

10 hours ago, PetermansRedemption said:

I’m pretty shocked that in such a time of need bipartisan bickering couldn’t stop for a mere day to get something done. The two party system in America truly needs to end. The divide between them has become far too great to have a functioning government. 

Two party system must end? What are you saying? 

[GG]

And just like that, Johns Hopkins changed the CV tracker to eliminate China from the graph and also doesn't show the # recovered

 

BTW, what the health agencies aren't doing clearly is plotting normal state death statistics vs CV

[Tiberius]

Donald J. Trump

 

@realDonaldTrump

 

I watch and listen to the Fake News, CNN, MSDNC, ABC, NBC, CBS, some of FOX (desperately & foolishly pleading to be politically correct), the

@nytimes

, & the

@washingtonpost

, and all I see is hatred of me at any cost. Don’t they understand that they are destroying themselves?

11:28 PM · Mar 22, 2020·Twitter for iPhone

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[Tiberius]

Quote

Neo-Nazi and other white-supremacist groups have told their members to spread the novel coronavirus to cops and Jews if they become infected, according to ABC News. The FBI has reportedly sent out a warning that “members of extremist groups are encouraging one another to spread the virus, if contracted, through bodily fluids and personal interactions.” Followers are reportedly being told to fill spray bottles with bodily fluids and squirt them at police on the street. They’ve also reportedly been told to spread the disease to Jews by going “any place they may be congregated, to include markets, political offices, businesses and places of worship.” Don Mihalek, the executive vice president of the Federal Law Enforcement Officers Association Foundation, told ABC News: “Anti-government folks in America love to target law enforcement as a symbol of America’s authority... It’s just sad that that’s their focus at a time of crisis in the nation.”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/neo-nazi-groups-tell-virus-infected-members-to-spray-bodily-fluids-at-cops-and-jews-says-report?ref=home

[billsfan1959]

10 minutes ago, Tiberius said:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/neo-nazi-groups-tell-virus-infected-members-to-spray-bodily-fluids-at-cops-and-jews-says-report?ref=home

 

Law enforcement is always a target, in one form or another, from many segments of society

[Chef Jim]

10 hours ago, Buffalo Bills Fan said:

 

On this note I’ve been the the grocery store a couple times the past week. While meat, produce, toilet paper and cleaning supplies were in very short or nonexistent supply the alcohol was very well stocked. I mean bursting at the seams. Come on people!  Step it up. What’s the matter with you??

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 23, 2020 by Chef Jim

[Kevbeau]

47 minutes ago, GG said:

 

 

BTW, what the health agencies aren't doing clearly is plotting normal state death statistics vs CV

Exactly...I’ve been looking for this data view since the end of last week.

[billsfan1959]

1 hour ago, GG said:

BTW, what the health agencies aren't doing clearly is plotting normal state death statistics vs CV

 

21 minutes ago, Kevbeau said:

Exactly...I’ve been looking for this data view since the end of last week.

 

In regard to total of all other deaths versus deaths from CV?

[GG]

2 minutes ago, billsfan1959 said:

 

 

In regard to total of all other deaths versus deaths from CV?

 

This question came up when analysts were discussing the statistics from Italy, and someone suggested that CV-related deaths there could have been overstated by as much as 80%, because of other contributing factors.   One way to ascertain the CV impact is to compare it to a normalized baseline, which would be the death rate in prior years

[RochesterRob]

1 hour ago, Tiberius said:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/neo-nazi-groups-tell-virus-infected-members-to-spray-bodily-fluids-at-cops-and-jews-says-report?ref=home

  Because the only antiauthoritarian groups are right wing?????????  Honest serious question to you.  How many Nazi's do you think are on this board?  Myself, I think very few but you are the right wing conspiracy everywhere kind of .....guy.