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Joe B takes a look at Buffalo's four core free agents...

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I am certainly not a salary cap expert but I would prefer the general an be shorter contracts for more money per year on the expensive dudes( Lawson/Phillips) and be willing to to go longer on others. If we are guaranteeing 30 million to Lawson I would prefer it be for 3 years all in then over 5 years with lots of money coming later.

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When you sign Shaq who does it send the message to that they will take care of the old regime if you buy in? 
 

it’s down to Hughes and....? 

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Shaq scares me due to commitment questions once he's paid ..Phillips is the one I'd let go for sure if the price isn't right.

He's a very good rotational piece but his production numbers aren't as impactful as his play an overpay wud be a huge mistake .

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Both Lawson and Phillips want to get paid.  With Harrison Phillips coming back from injury next season, and that apparent fact that Jordan leaves something to be desired in run defense, makes paying Lawson over Phillips pretty logical.

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I hope we re sign Phillips cuz he gets a lot of sacks.  Shaw is a nice player too.  You can't dump everybody.

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11 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

Lawson scares me. His comments and history here make me feel like he's a candidate for "Gets Paid, gets lazy."

Agree!  Let him go!

 

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8 hours ago, MJS said:

I'm fine without Lawson or Phillips. I'd bring back Johnson and Wallace though. I'd also bring back Spain until we have a clear upgrade.

 

I like Johnson and Wallace is a ERFA so he is back if Bills want.  

Spain is solid and has had good availability last three years; if asks for reasonable terms keep him.

Would be good with either of Lawson or Phillips if their contracts were structured incentive based with good base.

I think Phillips is a a leader on the field and teams need high energy players even if they do not bring lunch pails.

 

The game however is 0 sum unless you do deficit spending and Bills will need to pay their top players and keep players they want so players may need to choose between a team which is desperate and will pay more and the Bills.   Hughes was a player who we got because he could not get enough snaps behind two very good players on a team which did not rotate line so much.  Those players got paid well but they got more miles on them due to it.  Spain especially should know difference between playing in a good locker room and bad one.

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I always fear the guy who pretty much gets productive at the end of his rookie deal. Shaq

 

I sometimes fear the prove it 1yr contract guys. Phillips

 

Cut Star, Murphy and get a guy with consistent production for 2 of their salaries.

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Before we approach Shaq and Phillips ... my preference is pull forward Tre White and even Poyer and lock those down ... then see what's left in terms of FA money  .... those guys have showed from day 1 of their contracts unlike Shaq ... I love Phillips alot with his attitude (still can't believe he we cut by Dolphins)and play ... so if had to coin flip between the two .. I'll take Phillips.  I see comments about Horrible Harry coming back and again he's a fan favorite (illegitimate son of Kyle Williams), but he's not Phillips in the middle.

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21 hours ago, blacklabel said:

I didn't see this posted yet so I thought I'd share. It's an article on The Athletic so it's behind a paywall but I'll cut and paste a few bits and pieces.

 

Shaq Lawson - Joe predicts the Bills will get a long-term deal done with him before free agency. Quote...

 

"Signing Lawson would benefit the Bills in a few ways. They would be rewarding a young, vocal leader who has grown immensely under their watch. They would also be sending a message through the locker room that it doesn’t matter whether a player was brought in under the current regime; hard work, a good attitude and production are more important to them."

 

Wouldn't Shaq be the only player still here from the previous regime?  Not sure how much the locker room would actualy benefit from this message.

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22 hours ago, jeremy2020 said:

Lawson scares me. His comments and history here make me feel like he's a candidate for "Gets Paid, gets lazy."

 

I feel like Lawson goes a bit too much for the showboat stuff.  Having to be restrained by Morse and herded away by security from a Denver OLman after the win is just bush league.  The comments by Duck Hodges were relatively milquetoast as inspiration, do you really need that to get up for a game?

 

20 hours ago, PIZ said:

Sign Shaq. Put a C on his jersey. If he is the real deal, he won't want to let his teammates down.

 

See above.  That's not Captain level stuff.  It's bush league.  That is not a guy you want to hang out as an example for the team.

 

2 hours ago, WideRightRevenge said:

Before we approach Shaq and Phillips ... my preference is pull forward Tre White and even Poyer and lock those down ... then see what's left in terms of FA money  .... those guys have showed from day 1 of their contracts unlike Shaq ... I love Phillips alot with his attitude (still can't believe he we cut by Dolphins)and play ... so if had to coin flip between the two .. I'll take Phillips.  I see comments about Horrible Harry coming back and again he's a fan favorite (illegitimate son of Kyle Williams), but he's not Phillips in the middle.

 

Again - Horrible Harry Phillips has been playing 1 tech for us.  BigJ9797 Phillips plays 3 tech.  They are literally not interchangeable parts.  HH was platooning with Lotulelei and BigJ was platooning with Ed Oliver.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, Buffalo86 said:

 

Wouldn't Shaq be the only player still here from the previous regime?  Not sure how much the locker room would actualy benefit from this message.

 

I had that exact same thought.  Who are these defensive players from the previous regime who would benefit from this "message" per Joe B?

Who else is here?

 

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6 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I had that exact same thought.  Who are these defensive players from the previous regime who would benefit from this "message" per Joe B?

Who else is here?

 

Jerry? 

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5 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Jerry? 

 

He was signed to a 2 year, $21.5M contract with $19.75 guarantees last May.

 

I think we should make every effort to sign Shaq because he balled out last year, but it should be because he balled out and elevated his game, not because they're "sending a message" that it doesn't matter if you were drafted by us or the previous regime as Joe B suggested, 'cuz he's about the only one left far as I know.

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4 hours ago, BigBillsFan said:

I always fear the guy who pretty much gets productive at the end of his rookie deal. Shaq

 

I sometimes fear the prove it 1yr contract guys. Phillips

 

Cut Star, Murphy and get a guy with consistent production for 2 of their salaries.

Maybe I'm reading this wrong. You say you're afraid of signing Shaq and Jordan. Does that mean you wouldn't sign them? Shaq has improved every year under this regime. It's not a 1 year thing. Unless you're just looking at sacks(numbers). Then cut Star and Murph for 1 guy? Sounds like you wanna get rid of 4 players from a top defense. Numbers aside and contrary to what some posters wrote throughout the season, you don't find someone who does what Star does under a rock. I tend not to look at numbers as a determining factor. I watch them play. Star is worth every penny he gets.

Back to my original thought when posting, who replaces these 4 players? Please don't say draft picks. 

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I'm starting to think we may not even be in the market for Jordan Phillips.  You just can't invest that much at the DT position.  My thinking is we roll with Star, Oliver, Harry and Liuget.

 

As far as DE, I don't how we view Darryl Johnson, but I could see us re-signing Shaq and signing a FA EDGE to pair up with Hughes and Murphy.   Next year, we'll probably be drafting a pass rusher, but with our cap situation, and those two contracts relatively harmless after 2020/21, that's a strong rotation and buys a year before we are looking at Shaq, whoever we sign, and a high draft pick or two.

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31 minutes ago, SCBills said:

I'm starting to think we may not even be in the market for Jordan Phillips.  You just can't invest that much at the DT position.  My thinking is we roll with Star, Oliver, Harry and Liuget.

 

As far as DE, I don't how we view Darryl Johnson, but I could see us re-signing Shaq and signing a FA EDGE to pair up with Hughes and Murphy.   Next year, we'll probably be drafting a pass rusher, but with our cap situation, and those two contracts relatively harmless after 2020/21, that's a strong rotation and buys a year before we are looking at Shaq, whoever we sign, and a high draft pick or two.

 

From Beane's end of season presser:

 

General statements:

 

1.) “We’re a lot of positions away that we’ve got to clean up or answer.”

2.) “I don’t think we’re looking at an overhaul,”

3.)  We are going to look under every rock to find competition and upgrades where we can, but my philosophy has not changed. We have to draft, develop, and sign our guys.

4.) “I do agree with continuity. The more cohesive you are out there, this is the ultimate team sport . . .

5.) I would say, we want to keep as many intact as we can, but we wouldn’t do it in spite of a clear upgrade. But if you’re talking about, I’m bringing in a guy with a similar skill set, why would I do that if this guy can do it?

6.) If we’re going to change out guys, other than people who leave in free agency that we can’t control, we do believe in continuity and we want to keep as many of this core, these guys that we’ve drafted and spent time developing and learning our system,

 

Pass Rushers, Phillips & Shaq:

 

7.) Though he knows that premier pass rushers are rare, Beane admitted that he’s always in search of improvements across the defensive line. 

“You’d love to have one, you really would,” Beane said. “There’s not even 32 of them, though, one for each team. I promise you, we’re looking for those guys, and would love pressure on the quarterback. If the quarterback’s on his backside, he can’t do too much damage to us.

“We want to be strong upfront, we want to stop the run, things like that, but at the end of the day, there’s only so many Von Miller’s, that type of player.”

 

8.)"I thought Jordan really stepped his game up this year on the field, but also bringing some young guys along. I thought he was good with Ed and just showing him some different things. I think Jordan’s still got room to grow. Again, he had a career year, sack production, so he’s earned the right to see what his value is on the market. We’ll just have to see where that goes.”

 

9.) ‘Listen Shaq, us not picking up your option has nothing to do with us [not] wanting you here, it’s just where we are at this time. We would love for you to have a great year and sign you to a longterm.’ I was very happy with Shaq, and we’ll obviously talk to his representatives.

 

I am 100 % on board with the fact that Phillips is gone as his market based on what he did this year and Jordan still having room to grow - Beane basically said as much. So honestly, he will be missed for what he brought, but he is not a core player and we are not overpaying for him. If he tests the market out and it's reasonable we would re-sign him over signing a FA with a similar skill set. 

 

On DE where we will go with this is based on what the FO feels is a clear upgrade. Are Yannick, Chris Jones, Armstead, Barrett, Judon, Van Noy etc. a clear upgrade over Shaq? Shaq as it has been pointed out, while not drafted by them, he is part of the system and being developed in it, we have a price and would rather sign him as opposed to bringing a replacement with a similar skill set. It is reasonable to assume that if we are shut out or don't deem one of these better players and what there worth is a clear upgrade; Shaq will be back. Personally I see 5 FAs who are an upgrade over Shaq's pass rushing skills. 

 

Edit: Very easy to make a case if Shaq's value is worth around $9M/ season, I think you could reasonably dump Murphy for him. To have that level of continuity. 

Edited by Reed83HOF

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3 minutes ago, Reed83HOF said:

 

From Beane's end of season presser:

 

General statements:

 

1.) “We’re a lot of positions away that we’ve got to clean up or answer.”

2.) “I don’t think we’re looking at an overhaul,”

3.)  We are going to look under every rock to find competition and upgrades where we can, but my philosophy has not changed. We have to draft, develop, and sign our guys.

4.) “I do agree with continuity. The more cohesive you are out there, this is the ultimate team sport . . .

5.) I would say, we want to keep as many intact as we can, but we wouldn’t do it in spite of a clear upgrade. But if you’re talking about, I’m bringing in a guy with a similar skill set, why would I do that if this guy can do it?

6.) If we’re going to change out guys, other than people who leave in free agency that we can’t control, we do believe in continuity and we want to keep as many of this core, these guys that we’ve drafted and spent time developing and learning our system,

 

Pass Rushers, Phillips & Shaq:

 

7.) Though he knows that premier pass rushers are rare, Beane admitted that he’s always in search of improvements across the defensive line. 

“You’d love to have one, you really would,” Beane said. “There’s not even 32 of them, though, one for each team. I promise you, we’re looking for those guys, and would love pressure on the quarterback. If the quarterback’s on his backside, he can’t do too much damage to us.

“We want to be strong upfront, we want to stop the run, things like that, but at the end of the day, there’s only so many Von Miller’s, that type of player.”

 

8.)"I thought Jordan really stepped his game up this year on the field, but also bringing some young guys along. I thought he was good with Ed and just showing him some different things. I think Jordan’s still got room to grow. Again, he had a career year, sack production, so he’s earned the right to see what his value is on the market. We’ll just have to see where that goes.”

 

9.) ‘Listen Shaq, us not picking up your option has nothing to do with us [not] wanting you here, it’s just where we are at this time. We would love for you to have a great year and sign you to a longterm.’ I was very happy with Shaq, and we’ll obviously talk to his representatives.

 

I am 100 % on board with the fact that Phillips is gone as his market based on what he did this year and Jordan still having room to grow - Beane basically said as much. So honestly, he will be missed for what he brought, but he is not a core player and we are not overpaying for him. If he tests the market out and it's reasonable we would re-sign him over signing a FA with a similar skill set. 

 

On DE where we will go with this is based on what the FO feels is a clear upgrade. Are Yannick, Chris Jones, Armstead, Barrett, Judon, Van Noy etc. a clear upgrade over Shaq? Shaq as it has been pointed out, while not drafted by them, he is part of the system and being developed in it, we have a price and would rather sign him as opposed to bringing a replacement with a similar skill set. It is reasonable to assume that if we are shut out or don't deem one of these better players and what there worth is a clear upgrade; Shaq will be back. Personally I see 5 FAs who are an upgrade over Shaq's pass rushing skills. 

 

Edit: Very easy to make a case if Shaq's value is worth around $9M/ season, I think you could reasonably dump Murphy for him. To have that level of continuity. 

 

However It works out, keep Murphy/cut Murphy, I'd hope the offseason view is to re-sign Shaq (within reason) AND be in the market for one of those pass rushers. 

 

Murphy could be back for 2020, but could also be a cut candidate.  Hughes may or may not be around after this upcoming season.  To have Shaq and one of those pass rushers would allow us to, most likely, upgrade the defense this year, and be in a strong position moving forward when Hughes and Murphy are both gone.

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1 minute ago, SCBills said:

 

However It works out, keep Murphy/cut Murphy, I'd hope the offseason view is to re-sign Shaq (within reason) AND be in the market for one of those pass rushers. 

 

Murphy could be back for 2020, but could also be a cut candidate.  Hughes may or may not be around after this upcoming season.  To have Shaq and one of those pass rushers would allow us to, most likely, upgrade the defense this year, and be in a strong position moving forward when Hughes and Murphy are both gone.

 

Didn't mean to reply with a book, just want to keep some of that info in front of everyone's eyes

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3 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

I feel like Lawson goes a bit too much for the showboat stuff.  Having to be restrained by Morse and herded away by security from a Denver OLman after the win is just bush league.  The comments by Duck Hodges were relatively milquetoast as inspiration, do you really need that to get up for a game?

 

See above.  That's not Captain level stuff.  It's bush league.  That is not a guy you want to hang out as an example for the team.

 

Again - Horrible Harry Phillips has been playing 1 tech for us.  BigJ9797 Phillips plays 3 tech.  They are literally not interchangeable parts.  HH was platooning with Lotulelei and BigJ was platooning with Ed Oliver.

 

 

 

 

Sometimes doing something like putting a C on a guy's jersey, along with a discussion with the coach, can get a guy that younger players look up to, to live up the expectations. Considering Lawson is a "vocal leader", according to Joe B, he may get voted as a team captain by the players, since that is how they are chosen. I'm sure though, that the HC needs to approve it.

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Spotrac has suggested a value for Phillips and for Shaq.

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/2020/01/20/buffalo-bills-jordan-phillips-shaq-lawson-free-agent-value/

 

It's a lot less than I thought.  $6.1M for Phillips (3 years at $18.5), and $7.6M for Shaq (4 years, $30.7) AAV.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/buffalo-bills/

 

They don't have an estimated market value up for Spain yet.

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On 1/14/2020 at 8:12 AM, eball said:

 

I guess you're not considering the fact that he has become a team leader?  Those guys don't typically slack off after a new contract.

 

"Fact" he has become a team leader... is it a fact? I'm not sure how to judge that. Sometimes even coaches will say a guy is becoming a leader just to kind of motivate the guy, and see if he starts to assume the role.

 

All I see from Shaq is dancing and posing by himself after he makes a "big" play. I prefer guys that turn to find others to celebrate with, or just go back to work.

 

I don't know how we fans would know how much of a leader a guy is, unless we hear it consistently, from all kinds of sources.

 

I can't say I have heard much about Shaq being a leader, or spoken of with reverence by teammates.

 

 

I'd like him back, but he isn't irreplaceable.

 

Edited by 32ABBA

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I like Spain alright. I hope they have make an upgrade at OT, though

 

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I’m surprised at some of the casual comments about losing Shaq.  He was a force this year - relentless at times.

 

Of all 4, he’d be my priority.

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