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We can clinch playoffs this week & Scenarios to win the division (and even get the #1 seed in the AFC)

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2 hours ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yes but the first tie breaker is common opponents.  Why is this hard to understand?  They have a better record against common opponents.  So with a loss to Miami or Cinci it would even out and move to the division.  You are correct but not entirely on why.

No the first tie breaker is division record, second tie breaker is common opponents. So it’s actually rather easy to understand if you know the rules or bother to take 5 seconds to look them up. 

Edited by Ethan in Portland

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Wow. The fact that any of this is on the table after 12 games is amazing. One game at a time, but we have come a long way.

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2 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Just beat Baltimore.  I am most worried about on the road in Pittsburgh.  

 

Explain to me how duck dodgers will move the ball on our defense.

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3 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Just beat Baltimore.  I am most worried about on the road in Pittsburgh.  

Baltimore can be beaten and we should have our old friend Mother Nature to help neutralize the Ravens offense. That said, with 17mph sustained winds I look at the kicking game & worry about House Money’s woes. Nothing worse than to battle the Ravens and lose because our kicker doesn’t perform at Tucker’s level. Perhaps this is one of the holes they address in the off-season? Bringing in the best K in the draft. 

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I'd prefer wild card. I want more playoff games with Bills. They are 5-1 on road now (with a good kicker could be 6-0)  and they don't need a home advantage in playoffs 😀

 

I remember a year when young Eli won all postseason games on road  and culmination was spoiling Patriots perfect season in SB. 

Maybe young Allen repeats that way?

Edited by Artem Lipatov

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6 hours ago, Process said:

That browns loss stings so bad right now

I don’t see it that way but I get why someone would say that. Sure they could have won that game but what about the games they could have lost?   There are more of those.  

49 minutes ago, Artem Lipatov said:

I'd prefer wild card. I want more playoff games with Bills. They are 5-1 on road now (with a good kicker could be 6-0)  and they don't need a home advantage in playoffs 😀

 

I remember a year when young Eli won all postseason games on road  and culmination was spoiling Patriots perfect season in SB. 

Maybe young Allen repeats that way?

If they win the division they get a home game. And it could be without a bye.   Although that seems highly unlikely.   

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Win out is unlikely.  NElosing two at home is unlikely.   I guess it’s fun to talk about but let’s make the playoffs first.   
 

If two minor miracles occur next week this gets more fuel but until then not much has changed for the bills unfortunately. 

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Just need to concentrate on beating Baltimore! AND, on getting better as a team so no matter how we get to the playoffs we will be a dangerous team!! It would be just as sweet to beat the Pats in the playoffs!!

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6 hours ago, Process said:

That browns loss stings so bad right now


And you just knew it immediately at the end of that game. It was huge. 
 

BUT...I also think part of the reason we have taken it to the next level on offense is because of that loss. Either way, it’s December, we are relevant and we’ve got a huge test coming up. 

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I've been playing around with Playoff machine....there is a scenario where Buffalo wins the EAST, and ends up the 2 or 3 seed.  Buffalo loses to Baltimore.  Buf Beats New England.  NE Loses to KC and on other team....I have them losing to Miami in this case...If KC wins out in that scenario.  Buffalo is the 3 seed, and NE is the 5.  Or same scenario and KC loses once.  Buffalo is the 2, KC is the 3.  Still so many possibilities.  

 

I've mostly been doing KC....and so with that in Mind, KC can still get the 1 seed if KC wins out.  Baltimore loses twice. And New England loses Twice (including KC head to head next week)  That isn't very likely...but would be a little closer with a Buffalo win VS Balt.  KC does have decent path to the 2.  KC wins out. (KC @NE, Home VS OAK, DEN, CHARGERS)  And Buffalo beats NE but loses one other game.....doesn't matter wich one....or NE simply loses to KC and one other game, along with ANY scenario where the Bills lose one other game.

 

Still very very muddy waters.  Very exciting though.

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8 minutes ago, Zerovoltz said:

I've been playing around with Playoff machine....there is a scenario where Buffalo wins the EAST, and ends up the 2 or 3 seed.  Buffalo loses to Baltimore.  Buf Beats New England.  NE Loses to KC and on other team....I have them losing to Miami in this case...If KC wins out in that scenario.  Buffalo is the 3 seed, and NE is the 5.  Or same scenario and KC loses once.  Buffalo is the 2, KC is the 3.  Still so many possibilities.  

 

I've mostly been doing KC....and so with that in Mind, KC can still get the 1 seed if KC wins out.  Baltimore loses twice. And New England loses Twice (including KC head to head next week)  That isn't very likely...but would be a little closer with a Buffalo win VS Balt.  KC does have decent path to the 2.  KC wins out. (KC @NE, Home VS OAK, DEN, CHARGERS)  And Buffalo beats NE but loses one other game.....doesn't matter wich one....or NE simply loses to KC and one other game, along with ANY scenario where the Bills lose one other game.

 

Still very very muddy waters.  Very exciting though.

I thought KC was undefeated. Wouldn’t that make them the number 1 seed?  No???

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The Patriots offense cant score 20 points.  I can see them losing out.  I dont think they will though.  The Baltimore game is more concerning than the Patriots.  Buffalo gets a W vs Baltimore I think they beat NE and run the table.  

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People really need to tap on the brakes here.  After Cleveland it was all gloom and doom, and now with a win over Dallas people are getting too high.  This team is a work in progress, and people should temper their expectations.  The Dallas win was great, but Dallas is not a great team right now.  There is a decent chance the Ravens make us look bad, and people should not be going bat-***** crazy when they lose.  At this point if they beat just the Jets they should get into the dance, and that would make this an excellent season.  Anymore than that is a bonus this year.  It's OK to dream about more, but don't get too upset if all these dreams don't come true this year.    

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10 minutes ago, r00tabaga said:

I thought KC was undefeated. Wouldn’t that make them the number 1 seed?  No???

......in most years yes....but not this one (Man, I need some good crow recipes because you all are making me eat ALOT of it.  ugh.)

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7 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

Agree on paper, but Bills history there is brutal other than Frank Reich winning a playoff game.

 

 

Yeah that was ages ago, unless Rod Woodson & Greg Lloyd are suiting up for this game, I like the Bills chances.  

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The New York Times model is the best, in my opinion.

 

Lose out: 54% chance of making playoffs (this is probably what Cynthia Frelund will have, LOL)
Lose out until beating Jets: 96% chance of making playoffs
Win out: 56% chance of #1 seed
Win out and Chiefs beat Patriots: #1 seed

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8 hours ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

 

8 hours ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

You are incorrect, division record is higher priority than common opponents.

 

https://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

To Break A Tie Within A Division

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).  Assuming we beat Pats in Week 16 - Push
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.  Assuming we beat Pats and Jets, and Pats beat Phins - Push
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.  Eagles -1, Browns -1; Assume we beat Ravens +1; Would need Bengals to beat Pats to Push
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss

Tie Breakers definitely favor Pats if they have the same record as Bills - unless they drop one to the Bengals or Dolphins.  I just don't see that happening.  I do think it is possible that they lose to both the Chiefs and Bills.  But that means the Bills would have to run the table to win the division.  A tough task, but who knows.

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Lets just go compete for #10.  The process is working.   They have a solid locker room full of guys working for each other, solid coaches and front office.   What comes will come, but we are seeing the competitiveness and fight that the McBeane's process of sourcing the right kind of players brings.   Eg.  sitting Singletary for 3-4 weeks (may have cost them a game) was brilliant and is now paying off with 100% play.   Sitting Oliver for a couple weeks as he hit the "rookie wall" was brilliant.  Grabbing Jordan Phillips and Liguet to push Star was brilliant.   Taking one game at a time, love how Josh had little to say other than "getting #9".  No hoopla necessary.  And they have $80m cap space to sign their own stars who will carry the culture to the next draft class.  Love it.  It's understated and quiet, but gotta love the process.  Looking at 10-11 wins off a 6-10 last year. 

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Sure is a lot of optimism around these parts! I like it! Let’s just not jump off of a cliff if/when the Bills lose one or two of the last 4. Mmmmkay?

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10 hours ago, jimmy10 said:

Can I just say, I love all us Bills fans doing playoff math together.

To be fair, it is new math for us - it is usually "In-the-hunt" math which is different

10 hours ago, SDS said:


no worries. I thought 4 and 3 were flipped until about 20 minutes ago. 

We all did - I mean honestly, it's not like we needed to know this or even look at it over the past 20-25 years :bag:

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10 hours ago, MJS said:

There's a good chance that if we win the division, we also get the #1 seed.

 

It will be a fun next few weeks.

 

Wouldn't that just be crazy?  All the talk about how we were the worst 8 win team in history and this could actually happen.

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4 hours ago, mattynh said:

I don’t see it that way but I get why someone would say that. Sure they could have won that game but what about the games they could have lost?   There are more of those.  

If they win the division they get a home game. And it could be without a bye.   Although that seems highly unlikely.   

IF they win the division, they likely are going to get  the #1 seed (at 13-3) with home field advantage.  For us to go to 13-3,  the Ravens will have 3 losses and lose the Head to Head battle.

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