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We can clinch playoffs this week & Scenarios to win the division (and even get the #1 seed in the AFC)

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3 minutes ago, TheProcess said:

Need to beat Baltimore before I’d ever think something like this is possible. I’m sorry, but even after watching that loss to the Texans, they are still the Cheats and have earned the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. Obviously I’d love to be wrong. Beat Baltimore (who I feel is due for a loss) and I’ll start to dream. 

I don’t know man, the Patriots of this year aren’t the Patriots of the past. I’ve watched every nationally televised pats game and caught the rest on NFL Redzone. They don’t at all scare me and I doubt they scare anyone looking at them as a playoff matchup this year. Brady is averaging 55% completion, 230 yards, a TD, and an INT per game. Those are extremely beatable numbers. If Allen doesn’t get cheap shot out of the game the Bills has a real opportunity to beat them as well. Bills basically had to try to hand them that game. 

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Just now, Ethan in Portland said:

Just beat Baltimore.  I am most worried about on the road in Pittsburgh.  

The Browns looked lost today. No pressure, secondary was brutal. Steelers wont push the Bills around like that. Especially with Duck Dogers or whatever his name is. Tough place to play, but on paper no reason to lose that one.

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Just now, Scott7975 said:

The first tie breaker is common opponents.  They beat the Browns.  We lost.  So if they lose to Miami then we are even again I think and it would move to next breaker.

If they lose to Miami we win with the better division record. If they lose to Cincinnati we can win with the better AFC record.

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1 minute ago, BillsfaninSB said:


but wouldn’t we have a better AFC record that would give us the tie-breaker?

I thought so too but when breaking a tie in the division, record vs. common opponents is higher priority than conference record. Pats have beaten two teams we lost to (Eagles and Browns)

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Just now, Bferra13 said:

The Browns looked lost today. No pressure, secondary was brutal. Steelers wont push the Bills around like that. Especially with Duck Dogers or whatever his name is. Tough place to play, but on paper no reason to lose that one.

Agree on paper, but Bills history there is brutal other than Frank Reich winning a playoff game.

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1 minute ago, Scott7975 said:

The first tie breaker is common opponents.  They beat the Browns.  We lost.  So if they lose to Miami then we are even again I think and it would move to next breaker.


In this hypothetical scenario we beat the Ravens and they already lost to them. 

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Just now, Warcodered said:

If they lose to Miami we win with the better division record. If they lose to Cincinnati we can win with the better AFC record.

Yes but its because losing to Miami or Cinci moves the tie breaker down past common opponents because with one of those losses we would have tied in that category.

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16 minutes ago, JR in Pittsburgh said:

That second scenario isn’t super unlikely. I think the Dolphins could have the Pats number the way they are both playing. 

Nah.  The Dolphins don't have the talent to compete with the Patriots.  The Patriots secondary will eat Fitz alive.

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Just now, BillsfaninSB said:


In this hypothetical scenario we beat the Ravens and they already lost to them. 

They also beat Philly?

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2 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

The first tie breaker is common opponents.  They beat the Browns.  We lost.  So if they lose to Miami then we are even again I think and it would move to next breaker.

Miami is in our division. If they lose to Miami and we win out (beating Pats and Jets) then we are 5-1 in division and they would be 4-2.  

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Just now, PetermansRedemption said:

I don’t know man, the Patriots of this year aren’t the Patriots of the past. I’ve watched every nationally televised pats game and caught the rest on NFL Redzone. They don’t at all scare me and I doubt they scare anyone looking at them as a playoff matchup this year. Brady is averaging 55% completion, 230 yards, a TD, and an INT per game. Those are extremely beatable numbers. If Allen doesn’t get cheap shot out of the game the Bills has a real opportunity to beat them as well. Bills basically had to try to hand them that game. 

I’m with ya there. These don’t look like the typical cheats we’ve come to know and hate. I’d love it to be true, but we’re already playing catch-up and have a massively difficult game this weekend. We beat the Ravens then things definitely change for me. 

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Just now, Ethan in Portland said:

Miami is in our division. If they lose to Miami and we win out (beating Pats and Jets) then we are 5-1 in division and they would be 4-2.  

 

Yes but the first tie breaker is common opponents.  Why is this hard to understand?  They have a better record against common opponents.  So with a loss to Miami or Cinci it would even out and move to the division.  You are correct but not entirely on why.

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2 minutes ago, Bferra13 said:

The Browns looked lost today. No pressure, secondary was brutal. Steelers wont push the Bills around like that. Especially with Duck Dogers or whatever his name is. Tough place to play, but on paper no reason to lose that one.

Don't underestimate that Steelers defense.  They are playing extremely well.  Watt is putting pressure on the QB.  Minkah is leading in Interceptions...and they stop the run.  This will be a tough game.  In fact, all our four AFC North games are tough. 

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2 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yes but the first tie breaker is common opponents.  Why is this hard to understand?  They have a better record against common opponents.  So with a loss to Miami or Cinci it would even out and move to the division.  You are correct but not entirely on why.

You are incorrect, division record is higher priority than common opponents.

 

https://www.nfl.com/standings/tiebreakingprocedures

To Break A Tie Within A Division

If, at the end of the regular season, two or more clubs in the same division finish with identical won-lost-tied percentages, the following steps will be taken until a champion is determined.

Two Clubs

  1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
  2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
  3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
  4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
  5. Strength of victory.
  6. Strength of schedule.
  7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
  8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
  9. Best net points in common games.
  10. Best net points in all games.
  11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
  12. Coin toss
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3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yes but the first tie breaker is common opponents.  Why is this hard to understand?  They have a better record against common opponents.  So with a loss to Miami or Cinci it would even out and move to the division.  You are correct but not entirely on why.


lol. Exactly. Why is this so hard to understand?

 

 

258AA25F-5790-4EE6-B8DE-4F5543079D2E.png

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1 minute ago, SDS said:


lol. Exactly. Why is this so hard to understand?

 

 

258AA25F-5790-4EE6-B8DE-4F5543079D2E.png

 

Well damn.  My bad.  I thought 2 and 3 were flipped for whatever reason when I read it.  Apologies.

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3 minutes ago, ganesh said:

Don't underestimate that Steelers defense.  They are playing extremely well.  Watt is putting pressure on the QB.  Minkah is leading in Interceptions...and they stop the run.  This will be a tough game.  In fact, all our four AFC North games are tough. 

Agreed, but their offense was rough. Browns called a bad defensive game and executed even worse. They probably have Connors and Juju back by then though, who both missed today's game. It's going to be interesting here on out that's for sure.

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3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Well damn.  My bad.  I thought 2 and 3 were flipped for whatever reason when I read it.  Apologies.


no worries. I thought 4 and 3 were flipped until about 20 minutes ago. 

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19 minutes ago, BillsfaninSB said:


if the Bills win out aren’t they the #1 seed regardless?  


 NE has to lose one other game, besides the one to us in that scenario. 

Can I just say, I love all us Bills fans doing playoff math together. It’s like teaching calculus to kindergartners. 

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1 minute ago, SDS said:


no worries. I thought 4 and 3 were flipped until about 20 minutes ago. 

 

I don't really mind being wrong.  Im wrong all the time... but I do hate giving misinformation so thanks for the correction.

Fitz still loves Buffalo so I bet he would be thrilled beating the Pats and sending Buffalo to the top of the division if it came down to that :)

 

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