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We can clinch playoffs this week & Scenarios to win the division (and even get the #1 seed in the AFC)

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9 hours ago, Ethan in Portland said:

No the first tie breaker is division record, second tie breaker is common opponents. So it’s actually rather easy to understand if you know the rules or bother to take 5 seconds to look them up. 

 

Yes, as I said earlier... I read the two backwards when I read them.  My apologies man.

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3 minutes ago, Scott7975 said:

 

Yes, as I said earlier... I read the two backwards when I read them.  My apologies man.

 

Were you getting your info from Kevin Massare on twitter?

 

What I don't understand that he keeps saying is that with the loss, the Pats clinched the tiebreaker (leaving out that it comes after division record)................But, I don't understand how a loss to Houston would clinch that tiebreaker.  They're not even a common opponent - AND they lost!  

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all i know is... we should not be afraid of anyone in the league at this point. we can play with any of them. NE is no exception, they are no longer what they were.

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31 minutes ago, ganesh said:

IF they win the division, they likely are going to get  the #1 seed (at 13-3) with home field advantage.  For us to go to 13-3,  the Ravens will have 3 losses and lose the Head to Head battle.

I will f-ing die if this happens. I can't even imagine this

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14 minutes ago, bbb said:

 

Were you getting your info from Kevin Massare on twitter?

 

What I don't understand that he keeps saying is that with the loss, the Pats clinched the tiebreaker (leaving out that it comes after division record)................But, I don't understand how a loss to Houston would clinch that tiebreaker.  They're not even a common opponent - AND they lost!  

 

No, but that sounds messed up too.  I read it from another thread around here and it made sense at the time.... or I remembered it wrong.  I am getting old so that's highly possible.

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So, I just got the Pats to miss the playoffs while we’re the #1 seed on the ESPN playoff machine. Pats lose out, bills go 12-4 with loss to the Steelers, Steelers win out, titans win out, Texans win the other 2 not against the titans to go 10-6, and Chiefs lose 1 game.  That puts us and Baltimore both 12-4 with a head to head tiebreak in our favor, chiefs winning their division at 11-5, titans winning their division at 11-5, Steelers top wildcard at 11-5, and Texans in the 6 spot at 10-6 with the head to head over the pats.* I’d rather win out but I wouldn’t complain about this scenario either. 

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5 hours ago, bbb said:

 

Were you getting your info from Kevin Massare on twitter?

 

What I don't understand that he keeps saying is that with the loss, the Pats clinched the tiebreaker (leaving out that it comes after division record)................But, I don't understand how a loss to Houston would clinch that tiebreaker.  They're not even a common opponent - AND they lost!  


 

It came from PFF and WGR was touting it earlier.  They were missing the line that NE must beat Miami and then this is true - a Miami loss brings divisional record into play.
 

The logic on this is messed up, but it works out.
 

If NE beats Miami - so they would end up with the same divisional record as the Bills - then the loss to Houston (a non-common opponent) would mean that the the Bills would be 2-0 versus non common opponents and the Pats would be at best 1-1 (could still be 0-2) and therefore if we end up with the same record if the Pats lost one in the non-common opponent’s piece - to have the same record they would have to have a better common opponent record.

Edited by Rochesterfan

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18 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:


 

It came from PFF and WGR was touting it earlier.  They were missing the line that NE must beat Miami and then this is true - a Miami loss brings divisional record into play.
 

The logic on this is messed up, but it works out.
 

If NE beats Miami - so they would end up with the same divisional record as the Bills - then the loss to Houston (a non-common opponent) would mean that the the Bills would be 2-0 versus non common opponents and the Pats would be at best 1-1 (could still be 0-2) and therefore if we end up with the same record if the Pats lost one in the non-common opponent’s piece - to have the same record they would have to have a better common opponent record.

 

I get what you're saying, but wouldn't it be the same thing if the Pats had won?  The common opponents wouldn't change.  

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4 hours ago, Chandemonium said:

So, I just got the Pats to miss the playoffs while we’re the #1 seed on the ESPN playoff machine. Pats lose out, bills go 12-4 with loss to the Steelers, Steelers win out, titans win out, Texans win the other 2 not against the titans to go 10-6, and Chiefs lose 1 game.  That puts us and Baltimore both 12-4 with a head to head tiebreak in our favor, chiefs winning their division at 11-5, titans winning their division at 11-5, Steelers top wildcard at 11-5, and Texans in the 6 spot at 10-6 with the head to head over the pats.* I’d rather win out but I wouldn’t complain about this scenario either. 

losing to the steelers and winning bal, pats*, jets? steelers winning out? arz, buf, jets, bal?

 

has this scenario deal ever been right? or is it just for ***** and giggles?

Edited by DaBillsFanSince1973

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1 minute ago, bbb said:

 

I get what you're saying, but wouldn't it be the same thing if the Pats had won?  The common opponents wouldn't change.  


 

If the Pats had won (and beat KC - their other non common opponent) - they would be 2-0 versus non-common and the Bills would be 2-0 versus non-common.  If we end up with the same record then by default in that case we would have to have the same record against common opponents.

 

It is just a weird logic problem.  By having an additional loss in the non-common opponents - to have the same record - they must have an additional win in the common opponents - it is the only way to have an identical record.

 

 

Opponents.                 Bills.                            Pats

Non common.             2-0.                              1-1

common.                     9-5.                              10-4

total.                             11-5.                             11-5

 

as an example.

 

It did not matter if it was Houston or KC in this case - it is just the fact that it was a non common game and therefore to have the same total record the Pats must (due to the schedule) have an additional common opponent win to have the same total record.  At this point the Pats could lose both non-common opponents games and if we end up with the same record - they would have to have 2 additional common opponents wins.

 

The only Kicker is Miami.  If the Pats lose to the Bills and Miami - we would have the tiebreaker if we had the same record (assuming we beat the Jets). If we lose to the Jets and they lose to Miami - then we would need to have a better record as Divisional record is tied again.

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15 minutes ago, Rochesterfan said:


 

If the Pats had won (and beat KC - their other non common opponent) - they would be 2-0 versus non-common and the Bills would be 2-0 versus non-common.  If we end up with the same record then by default in that case we would have to have the same record against common opponents.

 

It is just a weird logic problem.  By having an additional loss in the non-common opponents - to have the same record - they must have an additional win in the common opponents - it is the only way to have an identical record.

 

 

Opponents.                 Bills.                            Pats

Non common.             2-0.                              1-1

common.                     9-5.                              10-4

total.                             11-5.                             11-5

 

as an example.

 

It did not matter if it was Houston or KC in this case - it is just the fact that it was a non common game and therefore to have the same total record the Pats must (due to the schedule) have an additional common opponent win to have the same total record.  At this point the Pats could lose both non-common opponents games and if we end up with the same record - they would have to have 2 additional common opponents wins.

 

The only Kicker is Miami.  If the Pats lose to the Bills and Miami - we would have the tiebreaker if we had the same record (assuming we beat the Jets). If we lose to the Jets and they lose to Miami - then we would need to have a better record as Divisional record is tied again.

 

Thanks for explaining it, but isn't it backwards logic for Massare to claim they clinched the tiebreaker - it all depends on the other games?  

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44 minutes ago, bbb said:

 

Thanks for explaining it, but isn't it backwards logic for Massare to claim they clinched the tiebreaker - it all depends on the other games?  

 

It seems so, but it really is true. If we're talking about a 13-3 tiebreaker, then before this past week the Pats* needed to lose a game in addition to losing to us in order to get to 13-3. If that loss had come to Cincinnati or Miami, they wouldn't have the tiebreaker. So it is true, but only insofar (word of the day) as it pertains to a 13-3 tie.

 

I guess it mostly pertains to a lot of discussion about whether the Bills would win the division by winning out and going 13-3. If that happens and the Pats* are also 13-3, the Pats* have clinched the tiebreaker. It doesn't mean they automatically have the tiebreaker at 12-4 or 11-5, etc.

Edited by Tuco
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2 hours ago, bbb said:

 

Thanks for explaining it, but isn't it backwards logic for Massare to claim they clinched the tiebreaker - it all depends on the other games?  


Yes it is totally backward logic, but it works out - just looking at it from a different perspective.

 

It is also backwards to think that the Philly loss cost us more than if we had lost to AFC opponents like Denver and Tennessee- if we are talking divisional winner/tiebreaker.

 

If you are looking at conference winner then AFC wins are better, but in the divisional tiebreakers - common opponents are the 2nd breaker after divisional wins - so NFC games have added importance.

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1 hour ago, Tuco said:

 

It seems so, but it really is true. If we're talking about a 13-3 tiebreaker, then before this past week the Pats* needed to lose a game in addition to losing to us in order to get to 13-3. If that loss had come to Cincinnati or Miami, they wouldn't have the tiebreaker. So it is true, but only insofar (word of the day) as it pertains to a 13-3 tie.

 

I guess it mostly pertains to a lot of discussion about whether the Bills would win the division by winning out and going 13-3. If that happens and the Pats* are also 13-3, the Pats* have clinched the tiebreaker. It doesn't mean they automatically have the tiebreaker at 12-4 or 11-5, etc.


 

Actually - it means that if that if the Bills and the Pats at this point end up with the same record (and the same divisional record) - for example: we both win our week 17 games (or both lose): and the Bills beat the Pats - no matter what other combination of wins and loses - The pats will have the tie breaker.  
 

Whether the teams are both 10 - 6 or 13 - 3 or anyplace in between - if the Bills beat the Pats and the two teams have the same result in their final divisional game - the tiebreaker stays in NE based on common opponents.  The Bills need 1 of 2 things to happen - they need a better final record or they need to beat the Pats and the Jets and Miami has to beat NE - then the Bills would win divisional 5-1 versus 4-2.  
 

It is just the way it works with the balanced NFL schedule.

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After hearing Patriots fans (mostly online) assume the bye week and likely homefield throughout for the past month+, it would be the most glorious day of my sports life to see the Bills come out from under the radar & take the division over this last month.  Even today, if you go on the Pats boards or twitter, whenever you see the rare suggestion that the Pats could lose the division, it's met w/ a dozen or so replies along the lines of "to the Bills?  Give me a break."

 

Ironically, the closest comparison would probably be something Boston fans experienced - going down by 3 games to the Yankees, a team that owned them for almost a century, and winning 4 in a row to improbably take that series and then go on to win the 'ship.

 

It would make the past 2 decades 100% worth it.  

 

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Just to make a really clear summary of how unlikely it is we win the division:

 

1. We are currently a game behind the Pats.

 

2. Last games for each team: Bills - ravens, steelers, pats, jets; Pats - chiefs, bengals, bills, Phins.

 

3. As we can see, if we win out we will at least tie them, if we win out and they lose to the Chiefs we win outright, and if we drop the Ravens game but otherwise win out and they lose to the Chiefs we tie again. All scenarios require us to win at NE which we never do, and even then we may still just tie. 

 

4. So, lets assume we do gain a game on them and tie. Now it's tie breaker time and those go like this:

 

-head to head (we would be tied)

-w/l in division games (we would be tied)

-w/l in common games (we lose b/c we lost to both the eagles and browns...both of whom the Pats beat)

-strength of schedule (we almost certainly lose unless chaos across the whole league breaks out last month of season)

 

SO, as we can see, the only realistic way to win is to win the division outright by record which means we almost certainly need to win out and beat the Ravens and hope the Pats also lose another game (most likely the Chiefs)...OR drop the Ravens game and hope the additional game the Pats lose is somehow the final game against the Dolphins giving us the second tie breaker (divisional record) before we get to the third tie breaker (common opponents).

 

TLDR version: It won't happen unless we either win out completely and the Pats lose another game in addition to our game (most likely the Chiefs); or go 3-1 (not losing to the Pats or Jets) and the Pats lose to the Dolphins. 

 

PS: Rereading this after posting and wow, it is pretty hard to make a "clear" anything when talking about all of this lol. Hey, I tried. 

-

Edited by dayman

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I want the Pats to have to sit out the playoffs due to the revenge of Josh Allen. See how that $#!+ tastes for a change. I want Brady, Belicheat and Kraft to all have sour tastes left in their mouths... and not the usual taste from whatever they do with each other, not that there is anything wrong with that...:sick:

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@daymanPatriots have to lose two more games than we do because the tie breakers in the most likely situation go to them. 
 

that said just beat the ravens. If we do that then I think the rest of the stars will align cause the pats look very beatable. Their locker room hasn’t been fun after wins this year and I can only imagine what it’s like this week. Let’s hope the patriot way causes an implosion. 

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1 hour ago, Rochesterfan said:


 

Actually - it means that if that if the Bills and the Pats at this point end up with the same record (and the same divisional record) - for example: we both win our week 17 games (or both lose): and the Bills beat the Pats - no matter what other combination of wins and loses - The pats will have the tie breaker.  
 

Whether the teams are both 10 - 6 or 13 - 3 or anyplace in between - if the Bills beat the Pats and the two teams have the same result in their final divisional game - the tiebreaker stays in NE based on common opponents.  The Bills need 1 of 2 things to happen - they need a better final record or they need to beat the Pats and the Jets and Miami has to beat NE - then the Bills would win divisional 5-1 versus 4-2.  
 

It is just the way it works with the balanced NFL schedule.

Right.

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3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:


Don’t die....you would miss the games.

 

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3 hours ago, dayman said:

Just to make a really clear summary of how unlikely it is we win the division:

 

1. We are currently a game behind the Pats.

 

2. Last games for each team: Bills - ravens, steelers, pats, jets; Pats - chiefs, bengals, bills, Phins.

 

3. As we can see, if we win out we will at least tie them, if we win out and they lose to the Chiefs we win outright, and if we drop the Ravens game but otherwise win out and they lose to the Chiefs we tie again. All scenarios require us to win at NE which we never do, and even then we may still just tie. 

 

4. So, lets assume we do gain a game on them and tie. Now it's tie breaker time and those go like this:

 

-head to head (we would be tied)

-w/l in division games (we would be tied)

-w/l in common games (we lose b/c we lost to both the eagles and browns...both of whom the Pats beat)

-strength of schedule (we almost certainly lose unless chaos across the whole league breaks out last month of season)

 

SO, as we can see, the only realistic way to win is to win the division outright by record which means we almost certainly need to win out and beat the Ravens and hope the Pats also lose another game (most likely the Chiefs)...OR drop the Ravens game and hope the additional game the Pats lose is somehow the final game against the Dolphins giving us the second tie breaker (divisional record) before we get to the third tie breaker (common opponents).

 

TLDR version: It won't happen unless we either win out completely and the Pats lose another game in addition to our game (most likely the Chiefs); or go 3-1 (not losing to the Pats or Jets) and the Pats lose to the Dolphins. 

 

PS: Rereading this after posting and wow, it is pretty hard to make a "clear" anything when talking about all of this lol. Hey, I tried. 

-

Bad news for ya, patriots wont lose any games at home to anybody they play. The only chance they have to lose is in Cincinnati and thats not gonna happen. I dont care that they lost a game yesterday. They can be as bad as your mind wants them to be but they will win the division. If your smart you will take the pats -3. And ravens -6

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26 minutes ago, Highhopes123 said:

Bad news for ya, patriots wont lose any games at home to anybody they play. The only chance they have to lose is in Cincinnati and thats not gonna happen. I dont care that they lost a game yesterday. They can be as bad as your mind wants them to be but they will win the division. If your smart you will take the pats -3. And ravens -6

 

Your hopes don't seem very high, Highhopes123. The reality may be that Brady's mind and body have finally quit on him. We'll know a lot more on this after the Chiefs game. But if Brady is no longer Brady, then the past doesn't apply anymore and anything becomes possible. Even a touch of Fitzmagic and a sprinkle of Dalton heroics could do the trick.

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