How mathematicians are trying to make NFL schedules fairer

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

How mathematicians are trying to make NFL schedules fairer

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/26523224/how-mathematicians-trying-make-nfl-schedules-fairer

 

I recall this being talked about (basically every year)  

 

The whole project was sparked, in fact, by his hometown Buffalo Bills complaining about how often they faced teams who were coming off either a bye or a Thursday night game, which gives their opponents a rest advantage. As it turned out, between 2002 and 2014, the Bills had twice as many of those games as some other teams. The Bills were at a seemingly permanent disadvantage.

 

 

The NFL has managed to create a national holiday out of the schedule release, in part because it makes the upcoming season feel imminent but also because of the anger and debate it sparks. And with the full list of constraints in hand, Karwan and his team -- including one of his Ph.D. students, Zach Steever -- determined it is impossible to eliminate every potential quirk or disparity. But working with a dedicated computer chained to a wall for security, on a secure internet connection in a room that requires a password to enter -- "It's like working for the Department of Defense," Karwan said -- the team is focused on lowering the number of those undesirable outcomes.

Edited April 15, 2019 by ShadyBillsFan

[row_33]

that's hilarious, best laugh of the day so far!

 

had to make sure it wasn't The Onion first.

 

 

[boater]

Interesting read. Thanks.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

1 minute ago, boater said:

Interesting read. Thanks.

no prob. 

 

some "data" to support what some of thought 

 

[row_33]

they've been skewing the schedule for decades to make it easier for the suckfest teams, and hand them the top draft pick every year, what more can they possibly ask for?

 

(and my team STILL can't build an honest winner for 20 or so years now...)

 

the worst teams get the cushier opponents in the variable games since the mid 1960s.

 

there is no scientific way to improve on this without a Merlin hat and a time machine....

 

 

[Stranded in Boston]

About time that some real mathematicians look into the Bills getting screwed on the schedule year after year! And as with any good scientific process, the results should be peer-reviewed. I would suggest that the chair of mathematics at MIT, Tom Mrowka, should be the lead reviewer (Buffalo native, LOL  ? ).

[row_33]

25 minutes ago, Stranded in Boston said:

About time that some real mathematicians look into the Bills getting screwed on the schedule year after year! And as with any good scientific process, the results should be peer-reviewed. I would suggest that the chair of mathematics at MIT, Tom Mrowka, should be the lead reviewer (Buffalo native, LOL  ? ).

 

No matter what pointless jiggery-pokery "math" is put into this, the Bills have to face the Pats twice a year,

 

thank goodness the Colts left the Bills division or it would have 0-4 against Brady and Peyton for many many years.

 

 

[scribo]

Parity is incalculably important to the league's continued success.

[RiotAct]

[row_33]

just like every two years we get another article saying "a new scientific survey proves there are only 12 minutes of action in a football game"

 

which isn't true at all, and we've kind of known this kind of thing since the stopwatch first hung around a maniac coach's neck, but they keep on insisting it's new and scientific... 

 

 

 

[Boca BIlls]

Row really wants someone to challenge him... most of the replies are him lol.

[HardyBoy]

1 hour ago, row_33 said:

they've been skewing the schedule for decades to make it easier for the suckfest teams, and hand them the top draft pick every year, what more can they possibly ask for?

 

(and my team STILL can't build an honest winner for 20 or so years now...)

 

the worst teams get the cushier opponents in the variable games since the mid 1960s.

 

there is no scientific way to improve on this without a Merlin hat and a time machine....

 

 

 

? 

 

They're talking about minimizing things like having one team disproportionately play more teams coming off byes than other teams, not strength of schedule stuff.

[mramefa]

3 hours ago, Stranded in Boston said:

About time that some real mathematicians look into the Bills getting screwed on the schedule year after year! And as with any good scientific process, the results should be peer-reviewed. I would suggest that the chair of mathematics at MIT, Tom Mrowka, should be the lead reviewer (Buffalo native, LOL  ? ).

 

So I know a little about this. Recently, the NFL was hiring a consulting firm to design their schedule, which was actually run by a couple MIT PhD alums specializing in optimization.

 

From my understanding, the NFL's focus was almost entirely on building a schedule to take advantage of the primetime spots, in order to maximize viewership (since that translates to more money in future TV deals and more fans). There's a reason why the Cowboys play Sunday/Monday/Thursday night football every year, and the Bills do not. While I never actually heard the Bills mentioned in this regard, I did hear a couple other teams explicitly named as undesirable. Any unfairness in the schedules resulting from this approach was basically an afterthought, from what I know. It's good that the Buffalo researchers noted schedule unfairness, because I doubt it was really on the NFL's minds at all, but it should be fixable with only a small impact on what the NFL really cares about ($).

[Mark Vader]

3 hours ago, row_33 said:

they've been skewing the schedule for decades to make it easier for the suckfest teams, and hand them the top draft pick every year, what more can they possibly ask for?

 

(and my team STILL can't build an honest winner for 20 or so years now...)

 

the worst teams get the cushier opponents in the variable games since the mid 1960s.

 

there is no scientific way to improve on this without a Merlin hat and a time machine....

 

 

How is that still possible when the schedules are predetermined, minus the strength of schedule games?

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

17 minutes ago, Mark Vader said:

How is that still possible when the schedules are predetermined, minus the strength of schedule games?

maybe he meant  to say "the darlings" get the cushier opponents at home or away depending on how its laid out.

 

if you get my meaning ..  There may be an advantage to playing team X at home verses on the road.  

 

[K-9]

4 hours ago, Stranded in Boston said:

About time that some real mathematicians look into the Bills getting screwed on the schedule year after year! And as with any good scientific process, the results should be peer-reviewed. I would suggest that the chair of mathematics at MIT, Tom Mrowka, should be the lead reviewer (Buffalo native, LOL  ? ).

Might want to run that suggestion by @DC Tom first. 

[BobChalmers]

4 hours ago, row_33 said:

they've been skewing the schedule for decades to make it easier for the suckfest teams, and hand them the top draft pick every year, what more can they possibly ask for?

 

(and my team STILL can't build an honest winner for 20 or so years now...)

 

the worst teams get the cushier opponents in the variable games since the mid 1960s.

 

there is no scientific way to improve on this without a Merlin hat and a time machine....

 

 

 

I literally have no idea why you would think this, or why you think trying to clean up a broken process is a joke.  Bad breakfast this morning?  Of course there are ways to improve it.

 

This is not about WHO you play - it's about not having teams get games against opponents with extra rest that week 6 times in one season (this happened to the Bills a few years back).

 

It's about not having a team (the Patriots* did) have multiple division games coming off more rest than their opponents.

 

There is frankly NO excuse for a team to play any of their 6 division games with more rest than their opponent - and yet this happened repeatedly for the Patriots*.

 

As with the part-time refereeing situation, the NFL gets caught being lazy/sloppy/cheap an absurd number of times for such a huge profitable business.  Any time they take a step towards less incompetent is a good thing.

 

[Nanker]

58 minutes ago, BobChalmers said:

 

I literally have no idea why you would think this, or why you think trying to clean up a broken process is a joke.  Bad breakfast this morning?  Of course there are ways to improve it.

 

This is not about WHO you play - it's about not having teams get games against opponents with extra rest that week 6 times in one season (this happened to the Bills a few years back).

 

It's about not having a team (the Patriots* did) have multiple division games coming off more rest than their opponents.

 

There is frankly NO excuse for a team to play any of their 6 division games with more rest than their opponent - and yet this happened repeatedly for the Patriots*.

 

As with the part-time refereeing situation, the NFL gets caught being lazy/sloppy/cheap an absurd number of times for such a huge profitable business.  Any time they take a step towards less incompetent is a good thing.

 

Spoken for truth. 

About 4-5 years ago, The Big Cat was a poster here who really did a cogent analysis of several years of NFL Schedules with the focus on The Bills and in particular how the Pats*** got extra time off WRT some key opponents. Ah showed how they played The Bills coming off NE’s bye week or a Thursday night game. It happened a half dozen times.

 

The local sports wags who lurk around here eventually picked up the storyline and published it in their media. Some attention was given, eventually. And it hasn’t been quite as onerous as it had been since then. 

Hats off and a nod to The Big Cat, where ever he is. 

Edited April 15, 2019 by Nanker

[MJS]

I quite liked our schedule last year.

[DC Tom]

1 hour ago, K-9 said:

Might want to run that suggestion by @DC Tom first. 

 

"Lowering the number of undesirable outcomes" of sporting events?
 

MIT can have it.  I don't want to touch that bull####.

[K-9]

1 minute ago, DC Tom said:

 

"Lowering the number of undesirable outcomes" of sporting events?
 

MIT can have it.  I don't want to touch that bull####.

Of course you wouldn't touch that, I was just wondering if you thought MIT was up for the task. 

[DC Tom]

1 minute ago, K-9 said:

Of course you wouldn't touch that, I was just wondering if you thought MIT was up for the task. 

 

Sure...not like Cornell, or Princeton.

 

But no one's making "more fair" an autocorrelated system punctuated by random events.  

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

..mathematics entering into the equation is presumptively asinine IMO....makes about as much as sense as pre-season strength of schedule forecasts and the "doom 'n gloom" thereafter upon release.....it precludes all variables......injuries, cuts, releases, trades, PS promotions, coaching/philosophy changes, suspensions, etc.....would be an interesting for one of TBD's "stat rat gurus" to do a study of pre-season vs post-season strength of schedule comparatives.....despite it being an tedious exercise WELL beyond my intellect, I'd bet the differences are generally substantial because of the variables...

[without a drought]

Good teams get too many prime time games, wouldn't this affect them negatively.

 

What are they doing about that?

 

Flex games, don't get me started.

 

 

[Big Turk]

Sloan Sports Analytics Conference has a 3 year grant from the NFL to help balance the NFL schedule...the team from UB first made the NFLs radar a few years ago when they found the Bills had 6 games against teams coming off byes or Thursday night games while other teams had none...they wrote to the NFL and said the schedule can hardly be fair when this type of stuff is taking place where one team plays an inorndinate amount of games against teams with extra time to rest and prepare while other teams play none...

 

Apparently the NFL paid attention as they will be helping balance the schedule for the next 3 years.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/sports.yahoo.com/amphtml/nfl-ssac-researchers-balance-schedules-224914583.html

Edited April 16, 2019 by matter2003

[Punching Bag]

Some of that is due to factors which favor teams which use stadiums for other purposes - concerts, etc.  By actively seeking such events they can control when NFL can schedule games.  Bills could do same thing by scheduling events at New Era Stadium in December to take away ability to have Bills play multiple games in December repeated.

 

However the research from University of Buffalo is solid and shows that the scheduling algorithm is slanted whether it is intentional to punish teams which are lower revenue or less favored for other reasons (i.e. TV) is debatable. 

 

[Note there are two threads on issue and did not notice that originally so I posted in both bumping up this one.]

[Chandler#81]

One one hand, this is fantastic news! UB gets some League propers & we won’t likely have to run that gauntlet again.

On the other hand, we wuz robbed & shafted. Again..

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

8 hours ago, Chandler#81 said:

One one hand, this is fantastic news! UB gets some League propers & we won’t likely have to run that gauntlet again.

On the other hand, we wuz robbed & shafted. Again..

LOL

 

Every season the SoS changes.  Teams Rocket to the top and crash to the bottom.   There is no formula for this inevitability.

 

Tracking how often you play teams with extra rest 4 of 5 seasons does matter in the greater scheme of things. 

Edited April 16, 2019 by ShadyBillsFan

[dollars 2 donuts]

22 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

How mathematicians are trying to make NFL schedules fairer

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/26523224/how-mathematicians-trying-make-nfl-schedules-fairer

 

I recall this being talked about (basically every year)  

 

The whole project was sparked, in fact, by his hometown Buffalo Bills complaining about how often they faced teams who were coming off either a bye or a Thursday night game, which gives their opponents a rest advantage. As it turned out, between 2002 and 2014, the Bills had twice as many of those games as some other teams. The Bills were at a seemingly permanent disadvantage.

 

 

The NFL has managed to create a national holiday out of the schedule release, in part because it makes the upcoming season feel imminent but also because of the anger and debate it sparks. And with the full list of constraints in hand, Karwan and his team -- including one of his Ph.D. students, Zach Steever -- determined it is impossible to eliminate every potential quirk or disparity. But working with a dedicated computer chained to a wall for security, on a secure internet connection in a room that requires a password to enter -- "It's like working for the Department of Defense," Karwan said -- the team is focused on lowering the number of those undesirable outcomes.

 

 

wait, Shady...so, in other words, this wasn't our imagination?

 

The thing we all said was a real thing and not fair turned out to be a real thing and not fair even though common sense would tell any upright walking sloth that this was:  a) a real thing; and b) not f***ing fair.

 

 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

31 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

wait, Shady...so, in other words, this wasn't our imagination?

 

The thing we all said was a real thing and not fair turned out to be a real thing and not fair even though common sense would tell any upright walking sloth that this was:  a) a real thing; and b) not f***ing fair.

 

 

 

LOL 

 

(shhh  no it wasn't our imagination.  we don't want people to re hash this)  

[dollars 2 donuts]

Just now, ShadyBillsFan said:

 

LOL 

 

(shhh  no it wasn't our imagination.  we don't want people to re hash this)  

 

 

I wish we could double emoji as you would have gotten a beer thanks, as well.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

you could Beer me then  in the post 

1 minute ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

I wish we could double emoji as you would have gotten a beer thanks, as well.

 

[row_33]

9 hours ago, Limeaid said:

Some of that is due to factors which favor teams which use stadiums for other purposes - concerts, etc.  By actively seeking such events they can control when NFL can schedule games.  Bills could do same thing by scheduling events at New Era Stadium in December to take away ability to have Bills play multiple games in December repeated.

 

However the research from University of Buffalo is solid and shows that the scheduling algorithm is slanted whether it is intentional to punish teams which are lower revenue or less favored for other reasons (i.e. TV) is debatable. 

 

[Note there are two threads on issue and did not notice that originally so I posted in both bumping up this one.]

 

 

this is all bogus crap

 

you can't "research" future sports games, there are at least 250 variables you cannot control, and you can't devise a blind test

 

this is just a dumb publicity stunt by a geek and his buddy who published it in the media

 

[iinii]

23 hours ago, row_33 said:

 

No matter what pointless jiggery-pokery "math" is put into this, the Bills have to face the Pats twice a year,

 

thank goodness the Colts left the Bills division or it would have 0-4 against Brady and Peyton for many many years.

 

 

Yes but we used count those two teams as for wins each year, so it has cut both ways. 

10 hours ago, Limeaid said:

Some of that is due to factors which favor teams which use stadiums for other purposes - concerts, etc.  By actively seeking such events they can control when NFL can schedule games.  Bills could do same thing by scheduling events at New Era Stadium in December to take away ability to have Bills play multiple games in December repeated.

 

However the research from University of Buffalo is solid and shows that the scheduling algorithm is slanted whether it is intentional to punish teams which are lower revenue or less favored for other reasons (i.e. TV) is debatable. 

 

[Note there are two threads on issue and did not notice that originally so I posted in both bumping up this one.]

Brilliant! But concert tours are generally during the spring, summer and early fall. Who is going to a stadium show in Buffalo in December? 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

11 hours ago, Limeaid said:

Some of that is due to factors which favor teams which use stadiums for other purposes - concerts, etc.  By actively seeking such events they can control when NFL can schedule games.  Bills could do same thing by scheduling events at New Era Stadium in December to take away ability to have Bills play multiple games in December repeated.

 

However the research from University of Buffalo is solid and shows that the scheduling algorithm is slanted whether it is intentional to punish teams which are lower revenue or less favored for other reasons (i.e. TV) is debatable. 

 

[Note there are two threads on issue and did not notice that originally so I posted in both bumping up this one.]

 

Did someone actually say that it is done intentionally to punish or the the Bills just happened to get the short end of the stick?  

[MTBill]

Favorite line - There are more possible schedules than there are atoms in the universe.  Let that sink in....  16 games, 17 weeks, 32 teams, more possible schedules than there are atoms in the universe.

 

Math - gaining an understanding of problems larger than the universe.

 

(I happened to have studied OR on my path to a Math degree.)

[Jrb1979]

On 4/15/2019 at 12:14 PM, row_33 said:

just like every two years we get another article saying "a new scientific survey proves there are only 12 minutes of action in a football game"

 

which isn't true at all, and we've kind of known this kind of thing since the stopwatch first hung around a maniac coach's neck, but they keep on insisting it's new and scientific... 

 

 

 

Non stop action is what makes hockey a better sport. Just wish more Americans would embrace it. 

[Punching Bag]

17 hours ago, iinii said:

Yes but we used count those two teams as for wins each year, so it has cut both ways. 

Brilliant! But concert tours are generally during the spring, summer and early fall. Who is going to a stadium show in Buffalo in December? 

 

I certainly do not advocate it. I think the Bills should schedule more open air hockey games in stadium to force NFL to schedule less games in December.

19 hours ago, row_33 said:

 

 

this is all bogus crap

 

you can't "research" future sports games, there are at least 250 variables you cannot control, and you can't devise a blind test

 

this is just a dumb publicity stunt by a geek and his buddy who published it in the media

 

 

Yes usually when people cannot understand math or science they call it dumb.

 

I am sure you were in line to burn Galileo Galilei. 

[iinii]

6 hours ago, Limeaid said:

 

I certainly do not advocate it. I think the Bills should schedule more open air hockey games in stadium to force NFL to schedule less games in December.

 

Good luck with that. Maybe the Bills should just play air hockey.

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

Can the mathematics keep NE from closing the season out at home in the last 2 weeks????