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Offensive weapons or finish the Defence?

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hondo in seattle All Pro

hondo in seattle

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I once heard an old GM (Ron Wolf, I think) say that it doesn't matter if your first round pick is a bust.  If you get two Pro Bowlers out of the draft, it's a very good draft.  If you get three, it's  a great draft.   You've got to get at least one but the goal is to land two.

 

If we got 2 or 3 Pro Bowlers in this draft, I wouldn't care what positions they played.   2 or 3 impact players would vastly upgrade this roster.  

 

Having said that, my hope is that at least one of those future Pro Bowlers is an offensive linemen.  I'm tired of seeing our RBs futilely running into an uninterrupted mass of gargantuan men and our QBs looking like frightened gazelles running from a pack of hungry lions.    

 

 

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Boatdrinks Hall of Famer

Boatdrinks

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Many throw around the “ BPA” term as gospel, but BPA on its own is pretty much a myth. Many of these prospects are graded very closely, as well as differently by various teams. The Bills selection will be dictated by a combination of factors. Their vision of how the team should be built , coupled with the cost of obtaining the specific players they covet to fit that vision. They certainly have different potential scenarios worked out, but their history shows they prefer specific players. Not some hypothetical BPA cliche. Look at their past drafting and expect more of the same. 

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maryland-bills-fan Veteran

maryland-bills-fan

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I'm beginning to see LB Dewon White as the first pick for the Bills.  We would have a killer defence- they guy is Ray Lewis reborn better.  We can add a good DT later in the draft or work out a trade for a 1-3 year rental.  BUT we would have a sick linebacker corp for the next decade.  He is the biggest upside and biggest high ceiling immediate starter we could get with our #9 pick.

 

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Prickly Pete Veteran

Prickly Pete

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After waiting nearly 25 years, we finally have a QB that I believe in, I want the focus to be on the offense. I am totally fine with the 9th pick going to defense if the players available dictate that, but in every other way, I want the offense to be given top priority.

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LSHMEAB Veteran

LSHMEAB

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22 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said:

Have to go Dline, the draft is loaded with DTs and DEs.  Right now, I think it may be the weakest position on our roster.  Notice that the DLine was not addressed in FA thus far; I'm expecting multiple draft picks for DE and DT.

If one of the top defensive lineman fall, it would be ideal. That's the weakest link defensively. 

 

The draft is not top heavy at WR or OL, but it's deep. That also works in our favor. You could say the draft is top heavy at TE, but I'd prefer to take a shot at that position in the 3/4/5th round. There are some quality options. I continue to believe Nuata from Georgia is a serious candidate considering he's the only TE Beane has brought in for an official visit.

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whorlnut Veteran

whorlnut

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On 4/14/2019 at 8:36 PM, Boca BIlls said:

They have 10 picks I see them using maybe 5 of those picks to move back up. I hope they take 10 picks and turn it into 4 guys in the first 2 rounds.

This is my hope as well. With the additions in fA, there aren’t going to be many roster spots available. And 6th and 7th rounders are usually long shots anyways. Package the picks and move up. Draft at 9, move back into the bottom of the first for a player that drops and then try to get two 2nd rounders. 

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PlayoffsPlease Veteran

PlayoffsPlease

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On 4/14/2019 at 9:04 PM, Shaw66 said:

Correct.  BPA.  

 

You know when McD says he wants to play complementary football, he means that the whole team wins or loses.  It isn't about one unit not being good enough or behind the other.  It's about how good is the whole team.

 

If the offense gets better, that's good for the team.  If the defense gets better, it's good for the team. So even though you might want to build the offense, if the best player happens to play defense, that means the defense gets better and the team gets better.

 

Is there any such thing as a diminishing return in this regard? If the BPA will improve your defensive output 3%, and the second BPA will improve offensive output 8%, is it really better to take the defensive player? 

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LSHMEAB Veteran

LSHMEAB

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13 minutes ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

 

Is there any such thing as a diminishing return in this regard? If the BPA will improve your defensive output 3%, and the second BPA will improve offensive output 8%, is it really better to take the defensive player? 

Position will always be a factor whether a GM admits it or not. A QB, LT, elite WR, or a pass rusher always take precedent because they are more impactful.

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PlayoffsPlease Veteran

PlayoffsPlease

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1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

Position will always be a factor whether a GM admits it or not. A QB, LT, elite WR, or a pass rusher always take precedent because they are more impactful.

My view is that you pick the player that improves the team the most.  I suspect that is often the best player available, but probably not always. 

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Ed_Formerly_of_Roch All Pro

Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

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On 4/14/2019 at 8:36 PM, Boca BIlls said:

They have 10 picks I see them using maybe 5 of those picks to move back up. I hope they take 10 picks and turn it into 4 guys in the first 2 rounds.

 

How do you figure that will happen? Do the math!  I keep hearing how they'll trade some of their picks to move up but for the most part their picks have little value.

 

If they initially trade down to around 15, likely could pick up a 2nd, but then would need to use both two's to get back into the bottom of the 1st.  

 

The only way I can see them getting extra high quality picks is to trade a couple of their more value players, maybe to get another 3rd or 4th. But likely the best you'll end up with is a 1st and two second rounders, or 2 firsts and no 2nd.  But the problem their is they don't have many players they can trade and get much of anything in return.  The only ones I can see them getting anything better than a 6th rounder for and not leaving a huge void would be Shady, Hughes, Lawson, and Zay Jones.

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Rocky Landing Veteran

Rocky Landing

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1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

Position will always be a factor whether a GM admits it or not. A QB, LT, elite WR, or a pass rusher always take precedent because they are more impactful.

I think Beane has actually been pretty clear on what he considers BPA-- he mentioned it in a recent interview, and at today's presser. BPA means best player available that fits the team, and players that don't fit the scheme do not rank as high on their board as players that do. It would be fascinating to me to see all of the different team's boards, and how they compare to each other. The word "best" is truly subjective. But, I take Beane at his word that he will draft on what he considers BPA, and not pass on someone who would be a better potential long-term Bill in order to fill a short-term need. At least, that is how I have interpreted his stated philosophy.

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Putin Veteran

Putin

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On 4/14/2019 at 7:36 PM, Boca BIlls said:

They have 10 picks I see them using maybe 5 of those picks to move back up. I hope they take 10 picks and turn it into 4 guys in the first 2 rounds.

This ^^^ 

 

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Putin Veteran

Putin

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On 4/14/2019 at 9:06 PM, OJ Tom said:

 

What team has both an offense and a defense that is "elite"?

 

I want to see the offense become "elite" first and foremost. I've had enough time watching crappy Bills offenses to last a lifetime.

This ^^^^

I would like to see a game where Allen throws for 300 yard and 3 /4 TD’s , 

Lets keep building that offense TE/WR/OL 

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SouthNYfan Veteran

SouthNYfan

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40 minutes ago, the skycap said:

Conor Orr of SI ranked the Bills receivers in the bottom 3 tier.

 

http://www.newyorkupstate.com/buffalo-bills/2019/04/buffalo-bills-wide-receivers-a-bottom-three-unit-says-sicom.html

 

 

 

Look I'm not saying we have the best group in the league, and there are a ton of questions (will Zay crap the bed? Was fosters second half a sign of the future or a flash in the pan? Can duke Williams ball?) But the article nails the problem with their raking.

this idiot put Andre Roberts in as one of their starting wrs.

He clearly did no research.

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BillsVet All Pro

BillsVet

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11 hours ago, PlayoffsPlease said:

Is there any such thing as a diminishing return in this regard? If the BPA will improve your defensive output 3%, and the second BPA will improve offensive output 8%, is it really better to take the defensive player? 

 

I can hear the analytics person in the room talking up this point, but it's debatable whether personnel types would even consider this.    

 

As in, what's the impact a first round DT, LB, or S can make above one taken in the 2nd or 3rd round based on the talent available.  

 

It's not a complete solution to the draft, but it gets closer to building an team that can win versus improving individual positions as many here indirectly advocate for.  

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Billy Zabka Practice Squad

Billy Zabka

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Go O‐line. Despite all the additions to to the Oline, only Morse is a proven good player.  The rest were average to journeyman Guards and a 34 year old swing tackle thst played good in spot duty.  

 

The Bills are in a great position at 9 to grab one of the top 3 Offensive Tackles in the draft and solidify the O-Line.  

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