Offense or Defense in Round 1

[BillsVet]

Buffalo's DL depth beyond this season is thin and I could easily see McBeane taking someone in the first round to fit that need.  It is a strong draft for that area, so there's likely going to be good DL talent available at 9 or wherever they pick on Day 1 of the draft.  This would be the conventional approach and predictable given the HC’s background. 

Yet, each of the four conference championship participants last year featured elite offenses who could easily put up points (cue the person who references the SB final score).  In fact, 11 of the 12 playoff teams scored at least 22.9 points per game during the regular season.  This is an offensive driven league now and has been for quite some time.   

 

With this in mind, I don’t see how taking a DT makes this team that much better.  IMO, the only position on defense they should draft in the first round should be a pass rusher. 

Point is, McBeane need to continue surrounding Allen with skill types.  That may mean the HC gets by with less on defense, but so be it.  For as many offensive UFA signings as they made, none of the skill ones are dynamic save perhaps John Brown and that’s pushing it.       

They invested so much in Allen, so it stands to reason they give him another weapon to use.  Going WR or TE in the first round is a sign McBeane acknowledge they need to be a modern NFL offense.    

[17islongenough]

It should be special teams!

[iinii]

5 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

Buffalo's DL depth beyond this season is thin and I could easily see McBeane taking someone in the first round to fit that need.  It is a strong draft for that area, so there's likely going to be good DL talent available at 9 or wherever they pick on Day 1 of the draft.  This would be the conventional approach and predictable given the HC’s background. 

 

 

Yet, each of the four conference championship participants last year featured elite offenses who could easily put up points (cue the person who references the SB final score).  In fact, 11 of the 12 playoff teams scored at least 22.9 points per game during the regular season.  This is an offensive driven league now and has been for quite some time.   

 

With this in mind, I don’t see how taking a DT makes this team that much better.  IMO, the only position on defense they should draft in the first round should be a pass rusher. 

 

 

Point is, McBeane need to continue surrounding Allen with skill types.  That may mean the HC gets by with less on defense, but so be it.  For as many offensive UFA signings as they made, none of the skill ones are dynamic save perhaps John Brown and that’s pushing it.       

 

 

They invested so much in Allen, so it stands to reason they give him another weapon to use.  Going WR or TE in the first round is a sign McBeane acknowledge they need to be a modern NFL offense.    

 

I have said all along don’t be surprised when McBeane takes a DL with the first pick

[DrDawkinstein]

6 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

Buffalo's DL depth beyond this season is thin and I could easily see McBeane taking someone in the first round to fit that need.  It is a strong draft for that area, so there's likely going to be good DL talent available at 9 or wherever they pick on Day 1 of the draft.  This would be the conventional approach and predictable given the HC’s background. 

 

 

Yet, each of the four conference championship participants last year featured elite offenses who could easily put up points (cue the person who references the SB final score).  In fact, 11 of the 12 playoff teams scored at least 22.9 points per game during the regular season.  This is an offensive driven league now and has been for quite some time.   

 

With this in mind, I don’t see how taking a DT makes this team that much better.  IMO, the only position on defense they should draft in the first round should be a pass rusher. 

 

 

Point is, McBeane need to continue surrounding Allen with skill types.  That may mean the HC gets by with less on defense, but so be it.  For as many offensive UFA signings as they made, none of the skill ones are dynamic save perhaps John Brown and that’s pushing it.       

 

 

They invested so much in Allen, so it stands to reason they give him another weapon to use.  Going WR or TE in the first round is a sign McBeane acknowledge they need to be a modern NFL offense.    

 

 

WRT the bold. That's the whole point in picking Oliver. He gets pass rush up the middle, which has historically been the only way to beat Brady.

[teef]

expect a cb or a rb, and be pleasantly surprised if it doesn't happen.

[MAJBobby]

BEST FOOTBALL PLAYER ON THE BOARD

 

Which at this point seems more likely to be a Defensive player

19 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

Buffalo's DL depth beyond this season is thin and I could easily see McBeane taking someone in the first round to fit that need.  It is a strong draft for that area, so there's likely going to be good DL talent available at 9 or wherever they pick on Day 1 of the draft.  This would be the conventional approach and predictable given the HC’s background. 

 

 

Yet, each of the four conference championship participants last year featured elite offenses who could easily put up points (cue the person who references the SB final score).  In fact, 11 of the 12 playoff teams scored at least 22.9 points per game during the regular season.  This is an offensive driven league now and has been for quite some time.   

 

With this in mind, I don’t see how taking a DT makes this team that much better.  IMO, the only position on defense they should draft in the first round should be a pass rusher. 

 

 

Point is, McBeane need to continue surrounding Allen with skill types.  That may mean the HC gets by with less on defense, but so be it.  For as many offensive UFA signings as they made, none of the skill ones are dynamic save perhaps John Brown and that’s pushing it.       

 

 

They invested so much in Allen, so it stands to reason they give him another weapon to use.  Going WR or TE in the first round is a sign McBeane acknowledge they need to be a modern NFL offense.    

 

As much as I agree about the Offense and want an elite one.  To write off a Penetrating DT is asinine.  The teams with inside pressure can disrupt the best offenses.  Bills currently don't have that, and guess what if Oliver is there at 9 that is exactly what he brings.

Edited April 11, 2019 by MAJBobby

[DrDawkinstein]

14 minutes ago, teef said:

expect a cb or a rb, and be pleasantly surprised if it doesn't happen.

 

Get ready for Greedy.

[MAJBobby]

3 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Get ready for Greedy.

Not even the best CB in the class

 

Byron Murphy is better

Edited April 11, 2019 by MAJBobby

[Peace Frog]

Round 1 for us should be, without a doubt, a blue chip DT like Oliver.

 

[BillsVet]

21 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

WRT the bold. That's the whole point in picking Oliver. He gets pass rush up the middle, which has historically been the only way to beat Brady.

 

The best way to beat Brady is keep him off the field.

 

Drafting Dareus really didn't make a big dent in taking down NE.  Why would Oliver do it?

 

 

[Formerly Allan in MD]

Finally, a draft thread.

[Watching since 1964]

Likely they also have trade proposals in place (that would include pick(s) from rounds 4-7) for a veteran DT as a backup plan if they go offense early.

[gjv001]

When you evaluate our upcoming schedule what stands out is how many premier RB's we play against.  We need to focus on improving our run defense to have a successful season. From my point of view, the best case draft scenario would be Ed Oliver in the first and Dexter Lawerence in the second.

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

No special teams?

[BillsVet]

7 minutes ago, gjv001 said:

When you evaluate our upcoming schedule what stands out is how many premier RB's we play against.  We need to focus on improving our run defense to have a successful season. From my point of view, the best case draft scenario would be Ed Oliver in the first and Dexter Lawerence in the second.

 

Ed Oliver is not going to be your run stopper or hold up against double teams.  He's needs to line up as a 3 technique and win with speed and athleticism one v one.   

 

 

Edited April 11, 2019 by BillsVet

[mannc]

8 minutes ago, gjv001 said:

When you evaluate our upcoming schedule what stands out is how many premier RB's we play against.  We need to focus on improving our run defense to have a successful season. From my point of view, the best case draft scenario would be Ed Oliver in the first and Dexter Lawerence in the second.

Would you enjoy watching a team that scores 12 points per game (again)? 

 

Using multiple premium picks on interior defensive linemen is the last thing this team needs.

[HappyDays]

You don't reach for a player in the top 10. Draft BPA or trade down. Drafting a low 1st round offensive player at 10 vs drafting a top 10 pass rusher. No brainer.

[buffaloboyinATL]

One of each.  (we will trade up into bottom of round one for second pick)

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

I’m usually a BPA guy but when your offense and defense are this far apart in the rankings you take offense. All year people complained about the offense and were told not to worry because we are going to use draft picks and free agency to fix it. Now most on this board are hoping for Oliver. 

 

A defensibe tackle would upset me for a number of reasons. 

 

1) He will be the 2nd or 3rd DT off the board and 5th or 6th d lineman. As opposed to the best player at OT, WR, or TE. If this draft is so deep at DT then there will be a player that can fit into our rotation later in the draft. 

 

2) the aforementioned rotation means a DT will not be on the field every play. With a top 10 pick I want a player that will be on the field every play. 

 

3) we have been through this with Dareus. He was the BPA supposedly. AJ green went one pick later. I know it happens the other way around (Sammy over Mack) but no one really knows who the best player is going to be. 

 

4) we don’t need a Kyle Williams replacement. I keep seeing this on mock drafts as a reason to take a DT at 9. Phillips wasn’t on the team this time last year. His one year deal is just smart cap management. Harrison was pumped up as Kyles eventual replacement. What happened to that? Star is the highest paid player on the team. He cannot be cut for two more years after this one without serious dead cap.

[BillsVet]

14 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

You don't reach for a player in the top 10. Draft BPA or trade down. Drafting a low 1st round offensive player at 10 vs drafting a top 10 pass rusher. No brainer.

 

Who said anything about reaching?

 

Ed Oliver may be a fine player, but from a positional value standpoint he's not worth more as an interior DL than a good WR or TE who poses a match-up issue for opposing defenses.  Buffalo's offense doesn't feature one guy who a defensive coordinator is losing sleep over.

Edited April 11, 2019 by BillsVet

[mannc]

15 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

You don't reach for a player in the top 10. Draft BPA or trade down. Drafting a low 1st round offensive player at 10 vs drafting a top 10 pass rusher. No brainer.

Why are you assuming an offensive player at 9 would be a reach?  I doubt you or anyone else here has any idea what the Bills' draft board looks like--or who will be available at 9. 

[Rock-A-Bye Beasley]

3 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Who said anything about reaching?

 

Ed Oliver may be a fine player, but from a positional value standpoint he's not worth more as an interior DL than a good WR or TE who poses a match-up issue for opposing defenses.  Buffalo's offense doesn't feature one guy who a defensive coordinator is losing sleep over.

 

You mean you weren’t quaking in your boots before the season opener last year knowing we had to face Brown?!

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Who said anything about reaching?

 

Ed Oliver may be a fine player, but from a positional value standpoint he's not worth more as an interior DL than a good WR or TE who poses a match-up issue for opposing defenses.  Buffalo's offense doesn't feature one guy who a defensive coordinator is losing sleep over.

Absolutely right.  That's why I think we take Metcalf at 9 if he's available, although I expect he will be gone.

[Thurman#1]

5 minutes ago, mannc said:

Why are you assuming an offensive player at 9 would be a reach?  I doubt you or anyone else here has any idea what the Bills' draft board looks like--or who will be available at 9. 

 

 

It's what most big boards out there look like. The consensus is that the top ten is pretty much all defenders with the exception of QBs. And maybe Jawaan Taylor, who I wouldn't mind.

 

And sure, ours could be different.

 

But if you're going to ignore what everyone's saying because it's convenient for a wish to pick an offensive skill guy, then why bother guessing? Best guess is the BPA will be defense, unless it's Taylor or we trade back. Haven't seen many boards w/ non-QB offense guys over Oliver.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

The best way to beat Brady is keep him off the field.

 

Drafting Dareus really didn't make a big dent in taking down NE.  Why would Oliver do it?

 

 

 

I dont disagree with your first statement and would be very happy to get Hock or even Metcalf at #9. Just giving you the common reasoning out there for taking Oliver.

 

And Dareus wasn't a penetrating pass rushing DT. He was drafted the year after we had the worst Run D in the league, and he came in and shored that up as a run stuffer.

[Bangarang]

Best. Player. Available

[JESSEFEFFER]

I say an elite 3rd down DL  prospect in the first round.  They are so thin there now and really thin there in 2020. The top prospects are all gone in the top 50.  Then at least 3 of the next 4 picks on offense, some mix of RB, TE, WR and DL.  Their FA signings look like they plan on a DL being the BPA.

[Thurman#1]

1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

Buffalo's DL depth beyond this season is thin and I could easily see McBeane taking someone in the first round to fit that need.  It is a strong draft for that area, so there's likely going to be good DL talent available at 9 or wherever they pick on Day 1 of the draft.  This would be the conventional approach and predictable given the HC’s background. 

 

 

Yet, each of the four conference championship participants last year featured elite offenses who could easily put up points (cue the person who references the SB final score).  In fact, 11 of the 12 playoff teams scored at least 22.9 points per game during the regular season.  This is an offensive driven league now and has been for quite some time.   

 

With this in mind, I don’t see how taking a DT makes this team that much better.  IMO, the only position on defense they should draft in the first round should be a pass rusher. 

 

 

Point is, McBeane need to continue surrounding Allen with skill types.  That may mean the HC gets by with less on defense, but so be it.  For as many offensive UFA signings as they made, none of the skill ones are dynamic save perhaps John Brown and that’s pushing it.       

 

 

They invested so much in Allen, so it stands to reason they give him another weapon to use.  Going WR or TE in the first round is a sign McBeane acknowledge they need to be a modern NFL offense.    

 

 

 

The thing about an offenses is that good defenses can do a good job stopping them.

 

What were the scores of the last few playoff games again?

 

It really isn't an offense-driven league and particularly not "for a few years," as you contest. Last year it leaned that way till the most important part of the year. And even before that it was an unusual year. No reason to think that's not part of the eternal cycle.

 

In any case, what any of us like is beside the point. What Beane will do is the point, and he's made that as plain as the nose on your face. BPA. How many times does he have to say it? You don't like it? Fair enough. But you're not the one who'll use the pick. 

 

Beane is.

[Thurman#1]

40 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

Ed Oliver is not going to be your run stopper or hold up against double teams.  He's needs to line up as a 3 technique and win with speed and athleticism one v one.   

 

 

 

 

Ed Oliver has been an absolute freakin' monster as a run defender.

 

 

Winning with speed and athleticism doesn't mean bad run defense. It means winning with speed and athleticism.

 

[Logic]

Just pick a big ugly and I'll be happy.

OL, DL, I don't care. Win in the trenches and you win ball games.
 

[HappyDays]

29 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

good WR or TE who poses a match-up issue for opposing defenses. 

 

Name your man. Which WR or TE is worth taking at 9? I'm not sure any of them are.

[Toesy]

If the Bills get three players from this draft that turn out to be top NFL players it is a success-it doesn't matter what position. Here is the last 20 years of Bills drafting and number of top players drafted:

 

1999-2  Winfield CB Price WR

2000-ZERO

2001-3 Clements CB Schobel DE Henry RB

2002-ZERO

2003-2 McGahee RB McGee CB

2004-1 Evans WR

2005-ZERO

2006-2 Whitner S Kyle DT

2007-2 Lynch RB Poz LB

2008-ZERO

2009-3 Wood OC Byrd S Levitre OG

2010-1 Spiller RB

2011-1 Dareus DT

2012-3 Gilmore CB Glenn OT Bradham LB

2013-2 Woods WR Alonso LB

2014-1 Watkins WR

2015-1 Darby CB

2016-1 Lawson DE ??

2017-4 White CB Jones WR Milano LB Dawkins OT

2018-2 Allen QB Edmunds LB

 

The 20 year average is 1.55 

 

Anyway-the point is the Bills don't have the luxury of drafting for need-it is hard enough just to get top players at any position.

[mannc]

8 minutes ago, Toesy said:

If the Bills get three players from this draft that turn out to be top NFL players it is a success-it doesn't matter what position. Here is the last 20 years of Bills drafting and number of top players drafted:

 

1999-2  Winfield CB Price WR

2000-ZERO

2001-3 Clements CB Schobel DE Henry RB

2002-ZERO

2003-2 McGahee RB McGee CB

2004-1 Evans WR

2005-ZERO

2006-2 Whitner S Kyle DT

2007-2 Lynch RB Poz LB

2008-ZERO

2009-3 Wood OC Byrd S Levitre OG

2010-1 Spiller RB

2011-1 Dareus DT

2012-3 Gilmore CB Glenn OT Bradham LB

2013-2 Woods WR Alonso LB

2014-1 Watkins WR

2015-1 Darby CB

2016-1 Lawson DE ??

2017-4 White CB Jones WR Milano LB Dawkins OT

2018-2 Allen QB Edmunds LB

 

The 20 year average is 1.55 

 

Anyway-the point is the Bills don't have the luxury of drafting for need-it is hard enough just to get top players at any position.

Wow, that’s ugly.  (I see you’re giving Zay the benefit of the doubt.)

[hondo in seattle]

35 minutes ago, Bangarang said:

Best. Player. Available

 

We don't need a defensive or offensive player per se.  We have lots of guys who can suit up, take the field, and not embarrass themselves.

 

What we need is an impact player.  Someone with the potential to change the result of a game.  Someone that opponents must account for.  

 

Beane will ask himself, "Which player left on the board will make the biggest difference."  And that's the guy.

 

 

[BillsVet]

29 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

I dont disagree with your first statement and would be very happy to get Hock or even Metcalf at #9. Just giving you the common reasoning out there for taking Oliver.

 

And Dareus wasn't a penetrating pass rushing DT. He was drafted the year after we had the worst Run D in the league, and he came in and shored that up as a run stuffer.

 

Dareus was drafted high because he was stout against the run and could rush the passer, as evidenced by his 28.5 sacks from 2011-2014.  It was his versatility that scouts loved.   

 

17 minutes ago, Logic said:

Just pick a big ugly and I'll be happy.

OL, DL, I don't care. Win in the trenches and you win ball games.

 

That discounts the positional value perspective to drafting, which is why teams trade up for QB more than any other position.  A good QB is a better force multiplier than a really good DT.   

 

At the same time, I'm not opposed to taking a solid LT and kicking Dawkins to LG.  Still, Allen needs more options in the passing game, which as I've said doesn't feature anyone scary.  Foster had 4 solid games in his final 8 last year.  Zay isn't a huge threat.  Brown has 50 or more catches 1 time in 5 seasons and Beasley, while nice, is a short area target.     

 

 

[Logic]

2 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

That discounts the positional value perspective to drafting, which is why teams trade up for QB more than any other position.  A good QB is a better force multiplier than a really good DT.   

 

 

I'm just talking about THIS draft with THESE prospects. It appears as though there will be multiple defensive linemen and offensive linemen with 1st round grades available when the Bills pick. In terms of positional value and importance to team building, I'm saying that offensive and defensive lineman are more valuable than, say, a tight end or wide receiver. A quarterback obviously has the highest value among any position, but the Bills already picked a QB last year, so it's irrelevant to this year's Bills draft discussion.

When looking just at THIS draft class for THIS team and where they pick in round 1, I'm saying I'll be happy as long as they pick someone to either protect our quarterback or attack the other team's quarterback.

[ndirish1978]

DL

[BillsVet]

7 minutes ago, Logic said:

I'm just talking about THIS draft with THESE prospects. It appears as though there will be multiple defensive linemen and offensive linemen with 1st round grades available when the Bills pick. In terms of positional value and importance to team building, I'm saying that offensive and defensive lineman are more valuable than, say, a tight end or wide receiver. A quarterback obviously has the highest value among any position, but the Bills already picked a QB last year, so it's irrelevant to this year's Bills draft discussion.

When looking just at THIS draft class for THIS team and where they pick in round 1, I'm saying I'll be happy as long as they pick someone to either protect our quarterback or attack the other team's quarterback.

 

That's a low standard and glosses over the idea that skill players are less readily available than linemen on either side of the ball. (EDIT: save top pass rushers DE/OLB)

 

I'll put it another way.  If they have a grade on a TE/WR similar to a DT/OT and you go with the latter, it's the same tired ideology.  One cannot ignore that offensive skill players at the aforementioned positions contribute more to wins than do linemen. 

Edited April 11, 2019 by BillsVet

[Logic]

3 minutes ago, BillsVet said:

 

That's a low standard and glosses over the idea that skill players are less readily available than linemen on either side of the ball. (EDIT: save top pass rushers DE/OLB)

 

I'll put it another way.  If they have a grade on a TE/WR similar to a DT/OT and you go with the latter, it's the same tired ideology.  One cannot ignore that offensive skill players at the aforementioned positions contribute more to wins than do linemen. 

Offensive skill players contribute to more wins than linemen? In what universe?!

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

I'm just talking about THIS draft with THESE prospects. It appears as though there will be multiple defensive linemen and offensive linemen with 1st round grades available when the Bills pick. In terms of positional value and importance to team building, I'm saying that offensive and defensive lineman are more valuable than, say, a tight end or wide receiver. A quarterback obviously has the highest value among any position, but the Bills already picked a QB last year, so it's irrelevant to this year's Bills draft discussion.

When looking just at THIS draft class for THIS team and where they pick in round 1, I'm saying I'll be happy as long as they pick someone to either protect our quarterback or attack the other team's quarterback.

That's just not true, at least with regard to WR.  Elite WRs (guys who the defense has to account for on every play) are rare and are the second most valuable commodities in the league, besides QB, of course, and the pay scale reflects this.  It's certainly nice to have a great offensive tackle, but it's not a position the defense needs to account for or scheme against.