McBeane's Moves Now Are For 2020 Success

[Aussie Joe]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

Then you should not state it as a fact.

 

Something that hasn’t occurred yet can’t be a fact.. thought that was implied..

[Shaw66]

37 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

7 wins is progress? 8 wins is progress? 

 

Geez, this fan base never changes. 

 

We were saying the same things when Dick Jauron was here. 

 

There will never be any real expectations in Buffalo. 

You're saying what you think should be done.   That's fine.

 

I'm saying what I think will happen.   And I'm saying it because I think I have developed a good understanding of the process, and it seems you haven't.  

 

McBeane are all about continuous improvement.   That's the process.  They have a detailed development plan for every aspect of the team, on the field and off.  Players get graded on all aspects of their career in Buffalo, on the field and off.  They get graded on every practice, every play.  If they're making good progress, they stay until they stop making progress or someone passes them.  Coaches, the same thing.  If McDermott keeps making progress on the goals that have been set for him, he stays.   If he stops making progress, he's in trouble.  

 

The goals do NOT include making the playoffs or winning the Super Bowl.  The goals are lots of small, well defined goals that represent incremental improvement.  The THEORY, instead of the goal, is that if you continue to make improvement at all the goals and behaviors set out for you, the wins will follow.   

 

So, it's very possible that the team will make progress in 2019, as measured by 2019 performance compared to 2019 goals, and still go 7-9.  

 

It's similar to the mentality baseball hitters have - the objective is to see the ball and make a good swing.  If you do that well, the hits will take care of themselves.   I here hitters say often that they're satisfied because they got good swings.   

 

2019 is, in a way, McBeane's first year.   It's the first year they will have a roster made up completely of players they picked because they look like good fits for the process.  It's the first year they'll have an entire team dedicated to and engaged in the process.  It wouldn't make sense to fire them after their first season unless, as Joe said, the wheels fall off.  

 

The process should result in wins, but it isn't ABOUT wins.   

13 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

Something that hasn’t occurred yet can’t be a fact.. thought that was implied..

Nicely done!

[HappyDays]

On 2/16/2019 at 10:07 AM, ScottLaw said:

While teams like the Bears and Rams turn their seasons around in one year,

 

The Bears are a good template to follow. My standard for the Bills this season is what the Bears did last season - compete for a playoff spot, and look ready to compete for a Super Bowl the following year. That is more than fair to expect given the draft picks and cap space they've left themselves.

 

The Rams are not a good example. They recklessly spent draft picks and cap space which gave them a very short window to win the Super Bowl. That window has already begun to close, and when a bunch of their players inevitably leave they won't have the draft picks to rebuild the team. And Goff doesn't look like a championship QB. I think they're going to be in very big trouble by 2020. Last year was their shot.

[mannc]

12 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 

The process should result in wins, but it isn't ABOUT wins.   

 

Unfortunately, the NFL is most assuredly about wins.

[stinky finger]

On 2/16/2019 at 8:48 AM, CaptnCoke11 said:

And If Allen gets injured in preseason are we going to think 2021?

 

What's the outlook of any team that loses their starting QB?

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

why wait until 2020?

 

 

go ahead and start being successful in 2019 to get the ball rolling toward taking division and beyond.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 2/15/2019 at 11:12 PM, Inigo Montoya said:

I think a lot of people on this board are getting too far over their skis with their expectations for the Bills this season.  I think we can be in the mix for a Wild Card at the end of the season but we are not going to be making a playoff run this year.  McBeane knows that.  McBeane is still working on setting the table this year.  He is not building a roster in this year's free agency and draft to win in 2019, he is looking at least one more year down the road.

 

I can't speak as to McBeane's plan for the Bills.  You may be right.  That may be a mistake on their part if it's true.

 

Generally speaking, a team that hangs onto its head coach and GM for more than 3 unsuccessful seasons is rare. 

"Unsuccessful" is, to some extent, within the eye of the beholder, but when a GM/coach make the pitch that the roster that predated them is just no good, yet manage to go 9-7 their first year, by the time they've had 3 years to rebuild the roster to their satisfaction they'd better be showing improvement. 

 

2014: 9-7  2015: 8-8 2016: 7-9

2017: 9-7

 

Fundamentally, McDermott and Beane took over an 8-8 "ish" team +/- 1 game

 

If their " develop the culture, rebuild the roster" strategy is correct, they better, well, Do Better.

[BillsVet]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

7 wins is progress? 8 wins is progress? 

 

Geez, this fan base never changes. 

 

We were saying the same things when Dick Jauron was here. 

 

There will never be any real expectations in Buffalo. 

 

Pushing out expectations is a hallmark of this board. It's a defensive mechanism for those fans who aren't sure their team is good, but still want to wave the pom-poms.

 

Right now they have half a team built after 2 off-seasons spent rebuilding. They've largely rid themselves of the previous regimes' players and it's to the point that expectations are ramping up...which means now we have this discussion of "2020." 

 

Every fan should expect that this team is in the playoffs in 2019, perhaps as a division winner.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

You're saying what you think should be done.   That's fine.

 

I'm saying what I think will happen.   And I'm saying it because I think I have developed a good understanding of the process, and it seems you haven't.  

 

McBeane are all about continuous improvement.   That's the process.  They have a detailed development plan for every aspect of the team, on the field and off.  Players get graded on all aspects of their career in Buffalo, on the field and off.  They get graded on every practice, every play.  If they're making good progress, they stay until they stop making progress or someone passes them.  Coaches, the same thing.  If McDermott keeps making progress on the goals that have been set for him, he stays.   If he stops making progress, he's in trouble.  

 

The goals do NOT include making the playoffs or winning the Super Bowl.  The goals are lots of small, well defined goals that represent incremental improvement.  The THEORY, instead of the goal, is that if you continue to make improvement at all the goals and behaviors set out for you, the wins will follow.   

 

So, it's very possible that the team will make progress in 2019, as measured by 2019 performance compared to 2019 goals, and still go 7-9.  

 

It's similar to the mentality baseball hitters have - the objective is to see the ball and make a good swing.  If you do that well, the hits will take care of themselves.   I here hitters say often that they're satisfied because they got good swings.   

 

2019 is, in a way, McBeane's first year.   It's the first year they will have a roster made up completely of players they picked because they look like good fits for the process.  It's the first year they'll have an entire team dedicated to and engaged in the process.  It wouldn't make sense to fire them after their first season unless, as Joe said, the wheels fall off.  

 

What a load of baloney this is. All of it. 

 

This whole thread is the sad epitome of the failed Buffalo sports fans mentality. Trying to find any excuse they can to lower bar. To shame the rest of the fans for their lack of understanding and impatience.    

 

Frankly, I don't care how many times McDermott points out that he has seen it all and done everything. That he keeps a little notebook with him at all times, critiquing a players devotion to his lame process. The "process" is a fake, made-up word that he uses and the bobble-head fans lap it up. Doug Marrone had that arrogant, been there, done it all attitude as well. 

 

He hasn't won anything. Not in Philadelphia, not in Carolina, and not in Buffalo. Sorry Coach, you run a 1908 Harvard offense, and have been dead wrong on Nate Peterman, not once, but twice. You have a 15-17 overall record in Buffalo. 

 

What GM is going to say that continuous improvement is not the goal? His head is stuck in Carolina. 

 

2019 is McDermott and Beane's third year in Buffalo. Not first. Third. I don't know how you come to that statement you made. They have their culture, they have their QB, they have their cap space, they have their Draft picks, they have the owner's backing. I'm sure Chris Brown will tell us about the importance of OTA's, John Murphy will have his fire-side chat with Kim Pegula with warm cookies baking in the oven behind them, Allen will talk some non-sense about not looking over his shoulder, that all players make the jump from Year one to Year two, we'll have Mark Kelso talk about the importance of continuity, and we'll have Jim Kelly tell us that we've found our franchise Coach and QB for the 7th time since 2000, but that's garbage. We've heard all of this before. 

 

When are we going to get results Shaw?

 

The bar should be 10-wins and a legitimate, solid Playoff birth. The Jets have a new Coach, the Dolphins have a new Coach, Brady will be 42 next season. But not in Buffalo. You're the kid who doesn't get toys at Christmas. Instead we'll get a Coach talking about the importance of getting 31 year old LeSean McCoy "going" and a GM patting himself on the back for Tremaine Edmunds greatness, all the while Kyle Williams leads the charge.

 

The real truth is Shaw, Kyle Williams would have been better as a Raven, or a Steeler, or a Patriot. He could have played in games that matter. But the Bills don't want better.  They want to live in the past, live in their mental safe box of low expectations, always the cashier muttering to themselves about how unfair it all is. 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 17, 2019 by Straight Hucklebuck

[#34fan]

The goal should be dominating the division... I've seen teams do it in a single season! NO WAY am I giving McBeane 'til '20... If this is a three-win team come December, they should all be fired.

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

...call it an unreasonable expectation (Greenspan said "irrational exuberance") , but with 10 picks and FA$$$, "6 & 10 AGAIN" won't fly around these parts.....2018 laid the ground work.......HR is the 2019 expectation but some may settle for a "three bagger".....wild card I'd say....

[Straight Hucklebuck]

11 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

I think a lot of fans have been watching the Sabres too much.

 

They aren't the blueprint for perennial winning.  

 

 

The Sabres disgust me. 

 

As soon as the the expectations are raised with a 10-game win streak, they tucked their head into the shell and went down with a whimper. 

 

86% chance to make the Playoffs at one point, down to less than 40% now. 

 

 

[CaptnCoke11]

3 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

The Sabres disgust me. 

 

As soon as the the expectations are raised with a 10-game win streak, they tucked their head into the shell and went down with a whimper. 

 

86% chance to make the Playoffs at one point, down to less than 40% now. 

 

 

That winning streak was a lucky fluke.  The team you see now is who they are.  Not very good 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 minute ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

That winning streak was a lucky fluke.  The team you see now is who they are.  Not very good 

Then, we should treat them like the Bills. 

 

Call me when you're good. 

 

[Turk71]

3 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

The Sabres disgust me. 

 

As soon as the the expectations are raised with a 10-game win streak, they tucked their head into the shell and went down with a whimper. 

 

86% chance to make the Playoffs at one point, down to less than 40% now. 

 

 

I will personally lend my mojo and will them to victory today. ?

Now back to the thread about not winning the SB this year.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, mannc said:

Unfortunately, the NFL is most assuredly about wins.

The NFL is a collection of 32 business owners, and it's only about wins in the way each owner decides it's about wins.   Jerry Jones has stuck with Howdy Doody down there longer than I would have thought possible, and no one is about wins more than Jerry Jones. 

 

What I'm saying is McBeane have a process, and they've sold the Pegulas on the process.  All four of them understand what 2019 success means in terms of the process, and I don't believe that the 2019 measure of success is some number of wins.  It's measurable progress on dozens and dozens of objectives.   They can make that progress and still not win 8 games, and if that happens, I think the Pegulas are in for another year.  

 

Simply put, under the process, won-loss record in 2019 is not a primary objective. 

[Dave Allen]

16 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

A couple teams???

 

Brady........SB champ second season

 

Roethlisberger........SB champ second season

 

Russell Wilson........SB champ second season

 

Andrew Luck.......AFC championship game second season

 

Carson Wentz..........lead team to #1 seed......team won SB second season

Goff........team was #3 seed in NFC in second season

 

Patrick Mahomes.........#1 seed AFC second season

Deshaun Watson.........playoffs second season

Mitch Trubisky...........NFC north champs, playoffs in second season

 

 

Man........this board is turning into a bunch of excuse makin',  expectation hatin' MOM's..........I think SDS need to get Nugenix into the banner ad loop!

So we have three rookie deal qb's who actually won rings in the past 20 years. Three quarterbacks who are going to be Hall of Famers, and who have continued to keep their team contenders in the second contract and beyond. That's not a rookie deal model, that's hitting the lottery. The other guys don't interest me. They lost.

 

I want to see the Bills in the playoffs as much as anyone else, but I'm not going to act like it's the endgame. If Beane starts looking at the draft and FA's like it's playoffs or bust, they're screwed. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

10 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

The NFL is a collection of 32 business owners, and it's only about wins in the way each owner decides it's about wins.   Jerry Jones has stuck with Howdy Doody down there longer than I would have thought possible, and no one is about wins more than Jerry Jones. 

 

What I'm saying is McBeane have a process, and they've sold the Pegulas on the process.  All four of them understand what 2019 success means in terms of the process, and I don't believe that the 2019 measure of success is some number of wins.  It's measurable progress on dozens and dozens of objectives.   They can make that progress and still not win 8 games, and if that happens, I think the Pegulas are in for another year.  

 

Simply put, under the process, won-loss record in 2019 is not a primary objective. 

Why even spend money to go to the games?

 

 

[Shaw66]

51 minutes ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

 

The bar should be 10-wins and a legitimate, solid Playoff birth.

 

 

 

 

Like I said, I understand that's what you want and what you would do as owner.   

 

And like I said, what I'm talking about is what I think the McBeane and the Pegulas are doing.  You don't have to like it.  You can disagree with it.   But it's pretty ignorant of you to criticize fans for having the wrong attitude about this.   I'm not talking about what I'd do; I'm talking about I think the Pegulas will do.  

 

The Pegulas made a huge mistake when they hired Rex.  They figured that out.   They took a different approach with this hire.   

 

Whether you like it or not, McDermott and then Beane sold the Pegulas the process, and the Pegulas bought it. 

 

Whether you like it or not, all indications are that all four of them still believe the process is the way to go.  

 

Whether you like it or not, Terry Pegula understands that building success takes time.  It took him decades to earn $5 billion.

 

So whether you like it or not, the Pegulas are going to measure success in terms of the process, not in terms of wins and losses.   If McBeane say the process is on track, and if the Pegulas agree, no one's losing their job with 7 wins.  Of course, if the Pegulas don't agree, then McBeane will be gone.  

 

My point only is that some other owners may fire their head coach based on one season's record; I don't think that's what the Pegulas are thinking.  

1 minute ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Why even spend money to go to the games?

 

 

I spend it because I like going to the games.  Pretty basic.  

[mannc]

30 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

The NFL is a collection of 32 business owners, and it's only about wins in the way each owner decides it's about wins.   Jerry Jones has stuck with Howdy Doody down there longer than I would have thought possible, and no one is about wins more than Jerry Jones. 

 

What I'm saying is McBeane have a process, and they've sold the Pegulas on the process.  All four of them understand what 2019 success means in terms of the process, and I don't believe that the 2019 measure of success is some number of wins.  It's measurable progress on dozens and dozens of objectives.   They can make that progress and still not win 8 games, and if that happens, I think the Pegulas are in for another year.  

 

Simply put, under the process, won-loss record in 2019 is not a primary objective. 

Not trying to be flippant, but do you have an inside source or is this just your conclusion based on what we’ve all seen and read?

[Straight Hucklebuck]

12 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Like I said, I understand that's what you want and what you would do as owner.   

 

And like I said, what I'm talking about is what I think the McBeane and the Pegulas are doing.  You don't have to like it.  You can disagree with it.   But it's pretty ignorant of you to criticize fans for having the wrong attitude about this.   I'm not talking about what I'd do; I'm talking about I think the Pegulas will do.  

 

The Pegulas made a huge mistake when they hired Rex.  They figured that out.   They took a different approach with this hire.   

 

Whether you like it or not, McDermott and then Beane sold the Pegulas the process, and the Pegulas bought it. 

 

Whether you like it or not, all indications are that all four of them still believe the process is the way to go.  

 

Whether you like it or not, Terry Pegula understands that building success takes time.  It took him decades to earn $5 billion.

 

So whether you like it or not, the Pegulas are going to measure success in terms of the process, not in terms of wins and losses.   If McBeane say the process is on track, and if the Pegulas agree, no one's losing their job with 7 wins.  Of course, if the Pegulas don't agree, then McBeane will be gone.  

 

My point only is that some other owners may fire their head coach based on one season's record; I don't think that's what the Pegulas are thinking.  

I spend it because I like going to the games.  Pretty basic.  

Well the elder fans who criticize the younger fans sure have been proven right over the years haven't they?

[Boca BIlls]

On 2/16/2019 at 12:12 AM, Inigo Montoya said:

I think a lot of people on this board are getting too far over their skis with their expectations for the Bills this season.  I think we can be in the mix for a Wild Card at the end of the season but we are not going to be making a playoff run this year.  McBeane knows that.  McBeane is still working on setting the table this year.  He is not building a roster in this year's free agency and draft to win in 2019, he is looking at least one more year down the road.

 

That's why I'd be surprised if McBeane goes TE shopping in free agency this year.  This is one of the deepest TE drafts ever and we have boatloads of picks.  Why burn a big chunk of cash on a middle of the road free agent TE when you can get a good one on a rookie contract and let him develop on a team friendly deal for the next four years?  I wouldn't be surprised to see the Bills grab two TEs in the draft this year with Clay being released.  I do hope he goes after O-linemen aggressively in free agency this year.  Talented "Hog Mollies" are really hard to find and need some time playing together to really gel and become a solid unit. 

 

Realistically, years 3/4/5 of Josh Allen's rookie contract are when we will have a team ready to start making deep playoff runs.  That is not this season.  If Allen continues to develop this year he will be ready to roll and we should have a roster built of young and talented 2nd , 3rd , and 4th year players with a few key veterans on each side of the ball ready to take that step along with Allen.  

 

I think Beane and McDermott feel like Terry and Kim have their backs and will give them the time they need to  build a roster the right way for long term success.  I'm a long suffering Bills fan just like everyone else here but I'm willing to wait one more year if it will help create a team capable of sustained excellence like in the Kelly Era.  I think that is the type of roster McBeane is trying to build. 

 

I think McBeane's offseason moves this year are designed to bear fruit in two or three years when the Bills are in their playoff window, not this year.  I think McBeane is looking at this year's free agency  and draft with a different timeline in mind compared to many here and it will color every decision McBeane makes.

 

 

He needs success this year... Why is this team the only one allowed to have no turn around for YEARS?

[Warcodered]

28 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Like I said, I understand that's what you want and what you would do as owner.   

 

And like I said, what I'm talking about is what I think the McBeane and the Pegulas are doing.  You don't have to like it.  You can disagree with it.   But it's pretty ignorant of you to criticize fans for having the wrong attitude about this.   I'm not talking about what I'd do; I'm talking about I think the Pegulas will do.  

 

The Pegulas made a huge mistake when they hired Rex.  They figured that out.   They took a different approach with this hire.   

 

Whether you like it or not, McDermott and then Beane sold the Pegulas the process, and the Pegulas bought it. 

 

Whether you like it or not, all indications are that all four of them still believe the process is the way to go.  

 

Whether you like it or not, Terry Pegula understands that building success takes time.  It took him decades to earn $5 billion.

 

So whether you like it or not, the Pegulas are going to measure success in terms of the process, not in terms of wins and losses.   If McBeane say the process is on track, and if the Pegulas agree, no one's losing their job with 7 wins.  Of course, if the Pegulas don't agree, then McBeane will be gone.  

 

My point only is that some other owners may fire their head coach based on one season's record; I don't think that's what the Pegulas are thinking.  

I spend it because I like going to the games.  Pretty basic.  

I think I pretty much agree with you though I think we might get pleasantly surprised this season. But I think it's like this last season the team seemed somewhat designed to not be good yet but the coaches and the players went into with the mindset to win. Bean working on the outside to put the team in a position where that mindset can get results on a consistent basis. This season I think there could be a lot of improvement but I also think that if they're adding a lot of new pieces on offense it might take a little while to get them to coalesce together.

[DCbillsfan]

McBeane, for the first time, will be adding overall talent to the roster.  So far, it's been trade a guy and get a pick.  Or waive a guy and sign a guy.  Net zero sum.

 

Between free agency and draft this ofsseason, they will add 8 to 12 guys to the roster who have contracts longer than one year.

 

Will this put them in the postseason in 2019?  I sure hope so.  I'm expecting it.

[Shaw66]

26 minutes ago, mannc said:

Not trying to be flippant, but do you have an inside source or is this just your conclusion based on what we’ve all seen and read?

A little bit of both.  I'm going primarily on what I hear McBeane say, and I think a lot of fans aren't paying attention.   They have a process, as we all know, and the more I watch what they're doing and what they're saying, it's clear that it's a long-term process of continuous improvement.  It's based on setting performance objectives for each individual, not about setting outcomes for the team.  

 

For example, Beane has said over and over that they will be conservative in free agency.   If your job depended on making the playoffs THIS YEAR and you had a ton of cap space, wouldn't you be buying every star player you could, blowing all your cap money this year?   Why not?  If you don't win this year, you're out, so why would you be saving any cap room for your successor?   But he's been very clear about this.  He has said over and over he's building for the long-term.   He's gotta feel reasonably secure about his job to be taking that approach. 

 

So I have reached this conclusion from what I've seen and read.  However, I also have a little inside information that suggests that (1) yes, as far as the Pegulas are concerned, McBeane must show real progress this year - there are no excuses, but (2) progress isn't necessarily measured in wins.   I think that means things like the young players (Allen, Edmunds, White, Milano} have to take the next step, overall talent continues to improve, competitiveness in big games continues to improve - things like that.  

[Shaw66]

7 minutes ago, DCbillsfan said:

McBeane, for the first time, will be adding overall talent to the roster.  So far, it's been trade a guy and get a pick.  Or waive a guy and sign a guy.  Net zero sum.

 

Between free agency and draft this ofsseason, they will add 8 to 12 guys to the roster who have contracts longer than one year.

 

I think this is an important point, and it's why I said in a way this is McDermott's first season.   This will be the first roster that is completely McBeane's.   The few holdovers from REx's term are there because McBeane want them.  Everyone else is now a guy they wanted.  

 

On top of that, everyone on the roster today (except the couple of free agent signings) knows the process and what's expected of them, and every guy who joins the team from here on out will learn from the veterans how this team operates.   That's a different environment from McDermott's first year, and even to an extent last season.  

 

McBeane will tell you they don't have all the talent they want, but they now have the kind of players they want.  

 

I think the important point in all this is not just that this is what McBeane are doing, but that they talk to the Pegulas about it and the Pegulas understand this is what is happening.  So the Pegulas' expectations are NOT that this will be a playoff team this season, although that might happen.   Their expectation is that the team will be better than last season in ways that are consistent with the way McBeane are trying to build it.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think this is an important point, and it's why I said in a way this is McDermott's first season.   This will be the first roster that is completely McBeane's.   The few holdovers from REx's term are there because McBeane want them.  Everyone else is now a guy they wanted.  

 

On top of that, everyone on the roster today (except the couple of free agent signings) knows the process and what's expected of them, and every guy who joins the team from here on out will learn from the veterans how this team operates.   That's a different environment from McDermott's first year, and even to an extent last season.  

 

McBeane will tell you they don't have all the talent they want, but they now have the kind of players they want.  

 

I think the important point in all this is not just that this is what McBeane are doing, but that they talk to the Pegulas about it and the Pegulas understand this is what is happening.  So the Pegulas' expectations are NOT that this will be a playoff team this season, although that might happen.   Their expectation is that the team will be better than last season in ways that are consistent with the way McBeane are trying to build it.  

The clock starts as soon the coach signs the contract. 

[Virgil]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

The NFL is a collection of 32 business owners, and it's only about wins in the way each owner decides it's about wins.   Jerry Jones has stuck with Howdy Doody down there longer than I would have thought possible, and no one is about wins more than Jerry Jones. 

 

What I'm saying is McBeane have a process, and they've sold the Pegulas on the process.  All four of them understand what 2019 success means in terms of the process, and I don't believe that the 2019 measure of success is some number of wins.  It's measurable progress on dozens and dozens of objectives.   They can make that progress and still not win 8 games, and if that happens, I think the Pegulas are in for another year.  

 

Simply put, under the process, won-loss record in 2019 is not a primary objective. 

 

Yes and no.  I understand what you are saying. I think if they go 5-11, there will be a problem.  Even if the 11 games are all lost by a field goal. 

 

I think this year needs to be a wild card race team up through the final weeks. If they miss, okay. But it should be close. 

 

After next season, we should looking for double digit wins. 

 

It’s not about a specific number, but the numbers usually indicate quality.  9-10 win seasons are wild card.  11+ wins are division winners.  

 

But again, I get what you’re saying too. 

[Shaw66]

Just now, Straight Hucklebuck said:

The clock starts as soon the coach signs the contract. 

In your world.   

 

When you buy a team, that's the way you can run it.  

 

It was completely clear to me, if not you, that McDermott had AT LEAST three years the day he was hired.   And once he got to the playoffs, it was quite likely that three became four.  

[Shaw66]

1 minute ago, Virgil said:

 

Yes and no.  I understand what you are saying. I think if they go 5-11, there will be a problem.  Even if the 11 games are all lost by a field goal. 

 

I think this year needs to be a wild card race team up through the final weeks. If they miss, okay. But it should be close. 

 

After next season, we should looking for double digit wins. 

 

It’s not about a specific number, but the numbers usually indicate quality.  9-10 win seasons are wild card.  11+ wins are division winners.  

 

But again, I get what you’re saying too. 

Yeah, I pretty much agree with this.  The Bills win 5 games this season, it's pretty clear that something is wrong with the process or the people running it.   I've said all along that I think McDermott is at risk with 6 wins and at serious risk with 5 (absent some unusual circumstances, like injuries to a lot of key players).   

 

I think, as you say, in the wild card race into at least December isn't essential, but not an unreasonable expectation.

 

And I think, as you say, if they don't get to double digit wins in 2020, one or both of McBeane are in trouble.   Not 2019, but 2020.   By then, Allen and Edmunds are in their third seasons, the roster is completely of McBeane's making, McDermott should be well past rookie mistakes and should have assembled a quality coaching staff.  If they aren't winning in 2020, something's wrong and it's almost certainly on McBeane.  

[Radar]

8 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

In your world.   

 

When you buy a team, that's the way you can run it.  

 

It was completely clear to me, if not you, that McDermott had AT LEAST three years the day he was hired.   And once he got to the playoffs, it was quite likely that three became four.  

The three guaranteed I agree with. Playoffs getting a fourth? Not sure about that.

[mannc]

18 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

A little bit of both.  I'm going primarily on what I hear McBeane say, and I think a lot of fans aren't paying attention.   They have a process, as we all know, and the more I watch what they're doing and what they're saying, it's clear that it's a long-term process of continuous improvement.  It's based on setting performance objectives for each individual, not about setting outcomes for the team.  

 

For example, Beane has said over and over that they will be conservative in free agency.   If your job depended on making the playoffs THIS YEAR and you had a ton of cap space, wouldn't you be buying every star player you could, blowing all your cap money this year?   Why not?  If you don't win this year, you're out, so why would you be saving any cap room for your successor?   But he's been very clear about this.  He has said over and over he's building for the long-term.   He's gotta feel reasonably secure about his job to be taking that approach. 

 

So I have reached this conclusion from what I've seen and read.  However, I also have a little inside information that suggests that (1) yes, as far as the Pegulas are concerned, McBeane must show real progress this year - there are no excuses, but (2) progress isn't necessarily measured in wins.   I think that means things like the young players (Allen, Edmunds, White, Milano} have to take the next step, overall talent continues to improve, competitiveness in big games continues to improve - things like that.  

You may very well be right.  I believe in 2019 it will be very important for McDermott to show that he isn’t completely out of his depth vs Belichick.  He’s been awful vs NE in his first 4 games.  The Bills can never achieve their goals until they beat NE on a semi-regular basis.  I’m not sure that Sean has that in him.

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, mannc said:

You may very well be right.  I believe in 2019 it will be very important for McDermott to show that he isn’t completely out of his depth vs Belichick.  He’s been awful vs NE in his first 4 games.  The Bills can never achieve their goals until they beat NE on a semi-regular basis.  I’m not sure that Sean has that in him.

If I were Pegula, I wouldn't agree with you.   There is NO coach since Bill Walsh whom I would expect to be able to compete with Belichick, so to set Belichick is the hurdle is to doom yourself to failure.  You'll probably NEVER hire that coach.  That's like saying until you get a QB as good as Brady, you keep cutting QBs.  

 

The reality is that in coaches, just like in QBs, you're trying to get a top 10 guy.  A top-10 coach, a top-10 quarterback.  

 

Yes, the unfortunate reality is that in you're in the AFC east, you have to deal with Belichick twice a year.   That shouldn't change how you evaluate your coach.  

[nucci]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

The NFL is a collection of 32 business owners, and it's only about wins in the way each owner decides it's about wins.   Jerry Jones has stuck with Howdy Doody down there longer than I would have thought possible, and no one is about wins more than Jerry Jones. 

 

What I'm saying is McBeane have a process, and they've sold the Pegulas on the process.  All four of them understand what 2019 success means in terms of the process, and I don't believe that the 2019 measure of success is some number of wins.  It's measurable progress on dozens and dozens of objectives.   They can make that progress and still not win 8 games, and if that happens, I think the Pegulas are in for another year.  

 

Simply put, under the process, won-loss record in 2019 is not a primary objective. 

Sorry but that is a ridiculous statement. If they go 6-10 again and miss the playoffs how could it be progress?

[Straight Hucklebuck]

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

In your world.   

 

When you buy a team, that's the way you can run it.  

 

It was completely clear to me, if not you, that McDermott had AT LEAST three years the day he was hired.   And once he got to the playoffs, it was quite likely that three became four.  

I know that 3-point masterpiece needs to be put in a keepsake for all eternity. 

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

10 minutes ago, Radar said:

The three guaranteed I agree with. Playoffs getting a fourth? Not sure about that.

Do you mean you agree that's what happened or you agree that was the right thing to do?

 

Whether it was right or not, I'm saying the Pegulas pretty much committed to McDermott for three years and I'm guessing that they jpretty much extended that commitment when the Bills made the playoffs.   Not sure it was the right thing to do, but I think that's what happened.   Nothing in writing, of course.   

 

I think that happened because making the playoffs took a tremendous amount of pressure off the Pegulas in Buffalo.  Life would be hell right now if the Bengals hadn't pulled off that miracle.  Anybody who works for me and does me that big of a favor has built up a lot of good will.  

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Do you mean you agree that's what happened or you agree that was the right thing to do?

 

Whether it was right or not, I'm saying the Pegulas pretty much committed to McDermott for three years and I'm guessing that they pretty much extended that commitment when the Bills made the playoffs.   Not sure it was the right thing to do, but I think that's what happened.   Nothing in writing, of course.   

 

I think that happened because making the playoffs took a tremendous amount of pressure off the Pegulas in Buffalo.  Life would be hell right now if the Bengals hadn't pulled off that miracle.  Anybody who works for me and does me that big of a favor has built up a lot of good will.  

Not when you followup 9-7 with a 6-10 snoozer. 

 

Selling the same old story of hope, continuity and "progress"

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, nucci said:

If they go 6-10 again and miss the playoffs how could it be progress?

Easy.

 

First, Allen finishes the season in the top 15 in passer rating.  Fitzpatrick and Rodgers did that last season and had 6 wins, so it's certainly possible.

 

Second, defense ranks in the top 10.

 

Third, have a few key injuries at the wrong time.

 

Fourth, lose a game on a bad call.

 

Fifth, play a really tough schedule - like the Browns get good, and the Jets do, along with the Pats. 

 

Like I've said, I think if they only win 6, there are some serious questions to be asked, and maybe the conclusion is the process isn't working or isn't being led by the right people.   

 

But if they're a legitimate 7-9 team, which means they're also a legitimate 9-7 team (because there's essentially no difference, and a ref blows a call to make the Bills 6-10, I don't think McBeane are at risk.   

 

Now, if I'm the Pegulas and ALL they are in 2019 is a legitimate 7-9, I may stick with them and with the process, but that doesn't mean I'm happy.  If they finish 7-9, I think McBeane are on notice for 2020 - win or be gone.  But I certainly can see scenarios where they are 6-10 this year and McBeane are back.  

[nucci]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Easy.

 

First, Allen finishes the season in the top 15 in passer rating.  Fitzpatrick and Rodgers did that last season and had 6 wins, so it's certainly possible.

 

Second, defense ranks in the top 10.

 

Third, have a few key injuries at the wrong time.

 

Fourth, lose a game on a bad call.

 

Fifth, play a really tough schedule - like the Browns get good, and the Jets do, along with the Pats. 

 

Like I've said, I think if they only win 6, there are some serious questions to be asked, and maybe the conclusion is the process isn't working or isn't being led by the right people.   

 

But if they're a legitimate 7-9 team, which means they're also a legitimate 9-7 team (because there's essentially no difference, and a ref blows a call to make the Bills 6-10, I don't think McBeane are at risk.   

 

Now, if I'm the Pegulas and ALL they are in 2019 is a legitimate 7-9, I may stick with them and with the process, but that doesn't mean I'm happy.  If they finish 7-9, I think McBeane are on notice for 2020 - win or be gone.  But I certainly can see scenarios where they are 6-10 this year and McBeane are back.  

ok, sorry then. I misunderstood but this makes more sense

[BADOLBILZ]

39 minutes ago, Virgil said:

 

Yes and no.  I understand what you are saying. I think if they go 5-11, there will be a problem.  Even if the 11 games are all lost by a field goal. 

 

I think this year needs to be a wild card race team up through the final weeks. If they miss, okay. But it should be close. 

 

After next season, we should looking for double digit wins. 

 

It’s not about a specific number, but the numbers usually indicate quality.  9-10 win seasons are wild card.  11+ wins are division winners.  

 

But again, I get what you’re saying too. 

 

 

I will take it further...........the entirety of the work in 2019.........week-in-and-week-out..........will decide whether the regime continues.

 

And that's no inside info..........that's just how it ALWAYS ACTUALLY PLAYS OUT.

 

Rex didn't get fired because he was 7-9..........they were a Carpenter missed field goal in OT of week 16 against Miami of being 8-7 with a favorable matchup in week 16 against the Jets.

 

It was the best offense we'd seen in Buffalo in 25 years........despite Sammy Watkins missing much of the year.

 

But even if they got to 9-7 Rex was on the hotseat.

 

Rex was fired because the owner and GM lost confidence in him...........two years in a row there were several games where it was clear they weren't prepared well.

 

McD has plenty of blemishes on his record...........the worst Bills HC against Belichick...........numerous embarrassing blowouts(7 or 8 in two years!)...........the Peterman embarrassments/fiasco's that made the organization a national joke.

 

As the body of work expands those kind of failures need to stop and a week-to-week consistently high quality, competitive product needs to be put on the field.