Early Draft Thoughts

[Dkollidas]

Two years ago, we saw a big trade down, then a couple smaller trades up. Down in the Tre White deal, and slightly up for Zay Jones & Dion Dawkins.

The big trade was down, and the guys they drafted were all seniors. This was definitely a McDermott lead draft. Beane wasn’t here yet, Whaley wasn’t trusted, and some picks seemed to show McDermott listening to his new staff (picking Jones in the 2nd with a WR coach who coached Jones in the NCAA).

 

Then we move to 2018. Beane is hired after the 2017 draft. We see s big change. Part of that was the need for a quarterback. Trading up for Allen was a calculated move by Beane for almost an entire year. Then they traded up again to take one of the youngest players in the league in Tre Edmunds. This along with picking Allen shows that management is more confident in the coaching (and I believe that the coaches trust themselves), to team the game. Allen and Edmunds are immense physical talents while being quite raw. 

 

But then there’s the Harrison Phillips pick. He’s exactly like the guys they drafted year one. 

 

My prediction? 1st Pick they go for the toolsy guy. Similar to Edmunds and Allen. They want to go with the home run option. I could see guys like Polite/Metcalf/Sweat being options here. Big upside guys. 

 

As the draft goes on, maybe even by the 2nd Round, they’ll go with more of the Harrison Phillips/Dion Dawkins types. Proven players, usually seniors.

guys I could see here are the Michael Deiter’s & Dalton Risner’s of the draft. 

 

Just my early thoughts looking at this years draft. 

[Pete]

The first round will be BPA(Oliver?) if we stay pat.  But Mr Beane likes to deal, and loves draft picks-he will trade down IMO.  I think we hold off on WR until 2nd/3rd where there will be options.  

[Steve Billieve]

I think there are a lot of players not even on their board, way more so than most other teams.  I expect they will keep moving around so they find the right guys at the right spots.

[Aussie Joe]

My prediction is that they will try to move down with their first pick, then move back into the bottom of the first with their Second pick..

 

[BuffAlone]

I don't see them moving down. We already have 10 draft picks to potentially sign. If anything, I can see us possibly trading up for extra picks in the 2nd and/or 3rd rds for talent that they have rated high and didn't expect to still be available. Hell,I wouldn't be surprised to see them bump up a few spots in the first rd if say one of Allen or Q.Williams should happen to slip due to teams jumping for a QB. 

Edited January 31, 2019 by BuffAlone

[TigerJ]

So, you're saying they will do pretty much what they did last year.  OK.  IMO, there is one constant that they strive for.  They want players who LOVE the game of football and will pay whatever price they need to pay to reach their full potential.  Skill set, athleticism and college production all play into their choice, but they won't draft anybody that they don't think is ready to work hard.

[mjt328]

It's too early to get a read on Brandon Beane's drafting style.

 

During his entire time in Carolina, he was playing second-fiddle to Dave Gettleman. 

Last year, he was dead-set on doing everything possible to land one of his targets at Quarterback.

And like you said, 2017 was an anomaly with some combination of Sean McDermott and Doug Whaley making picks.

 

I think you can be confident that Beane isn't afraid of moving around the board.  But that doesn't necessarily mean he is going to be a wheeler and dealer type of GM.  His top two picks last year where both high-risk/high-upside guys.  But that doesn't mean he will shy away from the safer/low risk prospects.

 

 

[Formerly Allan in MD]

It's about time we started discussing the draft.  ?

[JimmyNoodles]

1 hour ago, Dkollidas said:

Two years ago, we saw a big trade down, then a couple smaller trades up. Down in the Tre White deal, and slightly up for Zay Jones & Dion Dawkins.

The big trade was down, and the guys they drafted were all seniors. This was definitely a McDermott lead draft. Beane wasn’t here yet, Whaley wasn’t trusted, and some picks seemed to show McDermott listening to his new staff (picking Jones in the 2nd with a WR coach who coached Jones in the NCAA).

 

Then we move to 2018. Beane is hired after the 2017 draft. We see s big change. Part of that was the need for a quarterback. Trading up for Allen was a calculated move by Beane for almost an entire year. Then they traded up again to take one of the youngest players in the league in Tre Edmunds. This along with picking Allen shows that management is more confident in the coaching (and I believe that the coaches trust themselves), to team the game. Allen and Edmunds are immense physical talents while being quite raw. 

 

But then there’s the Harrison Phillips pick. He’s exactly like the guys they drafted year one. 

 

My prediction? 1st Pick they go for the toolsy guy. Similar to Edmunds and Allen. They want to go with the home run option. I could see guys like Polite/Metcalf/Sweat being options here. Big upside guys. 

 

As the draft goes on, maybe even by the 2nd Round, they’ll go with more of the Harrison Phillips/Dion Dawkins types. Proven players, usually seniors.

guys I could see here are the Michael Deiter’s & Dalton Risner’s of the draft. 

 

Just my early thoughts looking at this years draft. 

Agree.  If they stay at 9, this will absolutely be a part of the equation.  I pretty sure Beane said this in some interview(s) about early picks.  If they can't match elite physical talent to the mental make-up they want, a trade down is more likely.  

[OldTimer1960]

52 minutes ago, TigerJ said:

So, you're saying they will do pretty much what they did last year.  OK.  IMO, there is one constant that they strive for.  They want players who LOVE the game of football and will pay whatever price they need to pay to reach their full potential.  Skill set, athleticism and college production all play into their choice, but they won't draft anybody that they don't think is ready to work hard.

I think you've nailed it.  They are trying to build the Patriot's culture.  

 

In NE they do take chances on some under-achievers in FA, but they feel like they can do it because the established culture is so strong that the new guys will "get with the program" or be gone quickly.  This approach requires that they (Pats) have the discipline to cut bait on guys who won't work early and decively enough so that it doesn't give others on the team the idea that slacking will be tolerated.

 

I think that Beane and McDermott have done a good job of weeding out talented under-achievers like Dareus and Benjamin, but still too early in establishing the culture to spend high picks on guys who won't give their best.  

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

23 minutes ago, JimmyNoodles said:

Agree.  If they stay at 9, this will absolutely be a part of the equation.  I pretty sure Beane said this in some interview(s) about early picks.  If they can't match elite physical talent to the mental make-up they want, a trade down is more likely.  

Could point to DK Metcalf- physical freak from an NFL family.

[Albany,n.y.]

I'll make one prediction: Trade up from their 2nd pick either into the bottom of the 1st or top of the 2nd.  

[TheBeaneBandit]

2 minutes ago, Albany,n.y. said:

I'll make one prediction: Trade up from their 2nd pick either into the bottom of the 1st or top of the 2nd.  

I'm feeling this vibe as well.

[richardb1952]

I'm thinking they will look to move down, pick up an extra 2 or 3, then use some of their latter extra picks to move up into 2, 3 or 4.  That would give them 7 picks in first 4 rounds.  (they already had 2 picks in 4th).

[JimmyNoodles]

1 hour ago, 2018 Our Year For Sure said:

Could point to DK Metcalf- physical freak from an NFL family.

I hadn't been thinking any WR that early, but he appears to be moving up. I suppose the combine will help shake some of this out. He does fit the profile and the draftniks think he can be great.

[RyanC883]

I'd love to get a top/day 1 starter at 9 (BPA) and trade back into the first and grab Risner.  

[formerlyofCtown]

4 hours ago, Dkollidas said:

Two years ago, we saw a big trade down, then a couple smaller trades up. Down in the Tre White deal, and slightly up for Zay Jones & Dion Dawkins.

The big trade was down, and the guys they drafted were all seniors. This was definitely a McDermott lead draft. Beane wasn’t here yet, Whaley wasn’t trusted, and some picks seemed to show McDermott listening to his new staff (picking Jones in the 2nd with a WR coach who coached Jones in the NCAA).

 

Then we move to 2018. Beane is hired after the 2017 draft. We see s big change. Part of that was the need for a quarterback. Trading up for Allen was a calculated move by Beane for almost an entire year. Then they traded up again to take one of the youngest players in the league in Tre Edmunds. This along with picking Allen shows that management is more confident in the coaching (and I believe that the coaches trust themselves), to team the game. Allen and Edmunds are immense physical talents while being quite raw. 

 

But then there’s the Harrison Phillips pick. He’s exactly like the guys they drafted year one. 

 

My prediction? 1st Pick they go for the toolsy guy. Similar to Edmunds and Allen. They want to go with the home run option. I could see guys like Polite/Metcalf/Sweat being options here. Big upside guys. 

 

As the draft goes on, maybe even by the 2nd Round, they’ll go with more of the Harrison Phillips/Dion Dawkins types. Proven players, usually seniors.

guys I could see here are the Michael Deiter’s & Dalton Risner’s of the draft. 

 

Just my early thoughts looking at this years draft. 

Those solid players are the meat and potatos of the roster.  The other guys are the seasoning that makes the meal go together.  All of the guys are high football character guys which means they are dedicated to the craft not just wanting millions and fame.

If there is an elite player with that character at a position of need or near future need they will trade up to get that player if it isnt cost prohibitive and makes sense.

Edited February 1, 2019 by formerlyofCtown

[Buffalo Barbarian]

My draft strategy is always trade back in the first then trade all the late picks to get multiple 3rd round picks. Id rather have 5 or 6 picks in the first 3 rounds and get undrafted FAs than have 7 regular picks or 10 in our case.

 

 

[BillsFan1988]

10 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

I think you've nailed it.  They are trying to build the Patriot's culture.  

 

In NE they do take chances on some under-achievers in FA, but they feel like they can do it because the established culture is so strong that the new guys will "get with the program" or be gone quickly.  This approach requires that they (Pats) have the discipline to cut bait on guys who won't work early and decively enough so that it doesn't give others on the team the idea that slacking will be tolerated.

 

I think that Beane and McDermott have done a good job of weeding out talented under-achievers like Dareus and Benjamin, but still too early in establishing the culture to spend high picks on guys who won't give their best.  

Weeding out Benji after trading for him? Lol.

12 hours ago, Pete said:

The first round will be BPA(Oliver?) if we stay pat.  But Mr Beane likes to deal, and loves draft picks-he will trade down IMO.  I think we hold off on WR until 2nd/3rd where there will be options.  

Im really starting to think a trade bk with the Skins adding a extra 2 and drafting TJ Hock at #15 is the best and safest way to start the draft.

[machine gun kelly]

I don’t know how many read the Syracuse article from this morning, but really interesting about a prediction of 23 moves between free agency and the draft.  I really liked it.  I doubt all of those moves happen, but it would definitely make us a lot better.  I really couldn’t disagree with these moves.  It’s a long read so just preparing you.