Allen is NOT inaccurate unless Baker, Lamar, Darnold, Rosen, 2017 Watson & 2016 Wentz are, too

[Nextmanup]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

This is the kinda stuff that made me start this exercise.

 

Schatz has been one of those really highly respected guys saying Allen is somehow so much more inaccurate than other rookies.

 

He's not wrong that Allen misses easy throws, but he's very wrong that Allen is unique in that sense among good rookie QBs.

 

This kinda statement is the equivalent of, "before you eat that lemon, watch out! That one is sour!"

He was on with Schopp & Bulldog yesterday.

 

He maintained that he has always been, and remains, a non-believer in Josh Allen.

 

Schopp asked why, and he responded that he is simply too inaccurate and that is not going to be improved by learning.

 

He also pointed out that his running was fantastic, those yards count, and QB runs can be a big addition to the offense.  

 

Schatz also mentioned that at the halfway mark of last season, the Bills were set to have the worst offense in something like 30 years of data as compiled/studied by Footall Outsiders.  But then we hit the easy part of the schedule and Allen was able to improve the stats to the point of us not even being in last place for the season.

 

Most of Schatz's segment discussed things other than Josh Allen.

 

 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Nextmanup said:

He was on with Schopp & Bulldog yesterday.

 

He maintained that he has always been, and remains, a non-believer in Josh Allen.

 

Schopp asked why, and he responded that he is simply too inaccurate and that is not going to be improved by learning.

 

He also pointed out that his running was fantastic, those yards count, and QB runs can be a big addition to the offense.  

 

Schatz also mentioned that at the halfway mark of last season, the Bills were set to have the worst offense in something like 30 years of data as compiled/studied by Footall Outsiders.  But then we hit the easy part of the schedule and Allen was able to improve the stats to the point of us not even being in last place for the season.

 

Most of Schatz's segment discussed things other than Josh Allen.

 

Yes, clearly Schatz doesn't like Allen

 

Doesn't matter.  Perception is reality.  Allen looks like he could be an excellent pocket passer if his OL actually gave him time to throw it.  He demonstrated that last year when he was given time and often when he wasn't given time and was smashed while making a great throw, like the TD to Foster in the Jags game.

 

I actually kinda do wish that others would try this exercise.  I look at something like PFF and see a series of tweets like this:

 

and I just can't take them seriously having watched all of these guys play.

[transplantbillsfan]

 

[Foxx]

53 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

... I actually kinda do wish that others would try this exercise.  I look at something like PFF and see a series of tweets like this:

 

and I just can't take them seriously having watched all of these guys play.

so your saying... you don't agree with guys that are considered professionals for their analyses?

 

i have not been following along, can you tell me why? is it because their observations do not align with your confirmation bias or is it something else entirely? 

Edited January 29, 2019 by Foxx

[C.Biscuit97]

Sal C on WGR said Allen isn’t the most accurate qb. Must be biased. 

[Augie]

If we can “debunk” one theory, can we “bunk” another? 

[oldmanfan]

Looking at Palazzolo's graphs he seems to have a very limited definition of accuracy.  Accuracy is how close you are to a target.  If you want to say someone is inaccurate then you have to decide how far from the target should be constitute being inaccurate.  In statistical terms it's standard deviation; a measure of distance from the mean.  If you decide you have to be for example within 0.1 SD of the mean you have little if any margin for error before calling something inaccurate (for scientific data it's usually 2SD that is taken as a norm).  

 

The maps shown indicate the numbers on the uniform are the target.  And that any throw not hitting the uniform is inaccurate.  That's a pretty narrow definition, and would not take into account exactly where the QB was trying to throw it, whether the receiver got to the spot he was throwing to and such.  

 

In contrast, transplantfan says an accurate pass is within the catch radius.  This to me seems more reasonable; it takes more into account things like the receiver being in the right spot.  

 

I don't have access to all their data, but to understand it you'd need to see how they define their terms, how they do measurements, the error in their measurements and such.  They may get paid for this; it doesn't mean their methods are appropriate.  It is always reasonable to be skeptical of statistical analysis until one sees the methods.  I review dozens of scientific papers a year and reject most because their methods and/or analysis is flawed.

[transplantbillsfan]

21 minutes ago, Foxx said:

so your saying... you don't agree with guys that are considered professionals for their analyses?

 

i have not been following along, can you tell me why? is it because their observations do not align with your confirmation bias or is it something else entirely? 

 

It's because I actually watched every single pass of all 5 rookies along with Watson--so far---and as I watched every single pass I identified each pass simply as catchable or uncatchable and what I saw was that Allen's accuracy was at least similar to all the other rookies this year and Watson last year.

 

That's why.

 

It's not that their observations don't align with my confirmation bias.  It's that their system is clearly overly intricate and impossible to accurately  chart with NINE different categories each throw would fall into.

 

And how is each of those categories defined?

 

For example, are passes 20 yards down the field to a WR who has to stop in the middle of a crossing route to catch the football in his chest still one of those throws that they categorize in that "Accurate+" circle in the middle of the body?

 

Seems like my "confirmation bias" is no stronger than theirs, honestly.

[C.Biscuit97]

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Looking at Palazzolo's graphs he seems to have a very limited definition of accuracy.  Accuracy is how close you are to a target.  If you want to say someone is inaccurate then you have to decide how far from the target should be constitute being inaccurate.  In statistical terms it's standard deviation; a measure of distance from the mean.  If you decide you have to be for example within 0.1 SD of the mean you have little if any margin for error before calling something inaccurate (for scientific data it's usually 2SD that is taken as a norm).  

 

The maps shown indicate the numbers on the uniform are the target.  And that any throw not hitting the uniform is inaccurate.  That's a pretty narrow definition, and would not take into account exactly where the QB was trying to throw it, whether the receiver got to the spot he was throwing to and such.  

 

In contrast, transplantfan says an accurate pass is within the catch radius.  This to me seems more reasonable; it takes more into account things like the receiver being in the right spot.  

 

I don't have access to all their data, but to understand it you'd need to see how they define their terms, how they do measurements, the error in their measurements and such.  They may get paid for this; it doesn't mean their methods are appropriate.  It is always reasonable to be skeptical of statistical analysis until one sees the methods.  I review dozens of scientific papers a year and reject most because their methods and/or analysis is flawed.

I respect your tenacity.  But you are working really hard to defend a 52% nfl passer, a 56% Mountain West Passer, and a 49% JUCO.  If Allen was more accurate, he’d be the number 1 pick in the draft and won’t have had to go to Wyoming.  He needs to get better.

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

I respect your tenacity.  But you are working really hard to defend a 52% nfl passer, a 56% Mountain West Passer, and a 49% JUCO.  If Allen was more accurate, he’d be the number 1 pick in the draft and won’t have had to go to Wyoming.  He needs to get better.

Here we go again.  I want to lay this out and ask you to respond.  I and many others have shown you many times now that accuracy is not completion percentage.  We have on many occasions pointed out the factual reasons why, including the extreme number of variables that affect whether a pass is complete or not ( such as if a pass is dropped or receiver runs a bad route).  I have pointed out more times than I can count that if one throws 30 passes in a game that if two become complete vs incomplete you go from 52% to 60%.  

 

 

Accuracy is how close you come to a given target, completion percentage is completely different.  It is fact.  Yet you continue to cling to completion percentage as a measure of accuracy.  As I have said before, it's as if you say the sky is purple and despite folks laying out all the scientific and other reasons why it's blue you ignore it and say it's purple.

 

Why do I challenge this stuff?  For several reasons.  One, I have training in statistics and have seen over a 40 year career how statistics are routinely misused to support a preconceived bias.  Two, I charted some games and also looked at accuracy for Allen and my analysis is closer to the OP.  Three, I hope my relative expertise in areas of statistics adds something to the discussion.

 

Does Allen need to improve?  Absolutely and I have said so.  I have pointed out he is accurate but needs to be more precise in his ball placement.  He needs more touch on his short throws.  Like all young QBs he needs to work on his pre-snap reads and make quicker decisions.

 

So I ask you again:  why do you cling to completion percentage as some Holy Grail of accuracy, when so many have show why you are in error?

[PrimeTime101]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Sal C on WGR said Allen isn’t the most accurate qb. Must be biased. 

He is right. he is not.,. but you don't have to be the most accurate QB to be a franchise QB now do you? I think your take on looking at numbers like completion percentage and other numbers like this is LAZY! If you look at all the teams the rookie QB's went to, our Offensive situation was by far the WORST! yet you continue to ignore this fact.

 

Want to go look at numbers?

Look at the % he threw 15 yards or longer

Look at the % he had to run for his life

Look at the WR rankings with creating gap

Look at the WR drop rate, especially when Allen got better in the last 7 games

Look at the O Line starters from last year that likely would not start for any other team?

Look at the run game and how little it produced outside JA running

 

Then get a clue to why JA had the numbers you were referring to. I mean did you even watch one game? or is it because your 20 years old and have not ever seen a real QB on this team? witch is it?

 

Get a CLUE!

[LSHMEAB]

1 hour ago, C.Biscuit97 said:

Sal C on WGR said Allen isn’t the most accurate qb. Must be biased. 

HATERRRRRR!

[Doc]

No he is not the most accurate QB.  That would be Brees.

[CincyBillsFan]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

Looking at Palazzolo's graphs he seems to have a very limited definition of accuracy.  Accuracy is how close you are to a target.  If you want to say someone is inaccurate then you have to decide how far from the target should be constitute being inaccurate.  In statistical terms it's standard deviation; a measure of distance from the mean.  If you decide you have to be for example within 0.1 SD of the mean you have little if any margin for error before calling something inaccurate (for scientific data it's usually 2SD that is taken as a norm).  

 

The maps shown indicate the numbers on the uniform are the target.  And that any throw not hitting the uniform is inaccurate.  That's a pretty narrow definition, and would not take into account exactly where the QB was trying to throw it, whether the receiver got to the spot he was throwing to and such.  

 

In contrast, transplantfan says an accurate pass is within the catch radius.  This to me seems more reasonable; it takes more into account things like the receiver being in the right spot.  

 

I don't have access to all their data, but to understand it you'd need to see how they define their terms, how they do measurements, the error in their measurements and such.  They may get paid for this; it doesn't mean their methods are appropriate.  It is always reasonable to be skeptical of statistical analysis until one sees the methods.  I review dozens of scientific papers a year and reject most because their methods and/or analysis is flawed.

 

On the face of it aiming only at the numbers on the uniform is dumb given the many different types of passes thrown by NFL caliber QB's.  Just off the top of my head it would be profoundly inaccurate (or stupid) for a QB to aim for the numbers of his 6 ft 6 inch WR being guarded by a 5 ft 10 in inch DB in the end zone.  I would think throwing the ball up high where his receivers height advantage could be used most effectively is the most ACCURATE pass in that situation.

 

Think about that spectacular pass Allen threw to Foster to convert a 3rd & 13 out of his end zone against Miami in their first meeting. The Throw was a laser beam deliberately put about a foot out of bounds so only Foster could catch it with his HANDS.  Aiming a pass for the number on Fosters Jersey would probably have resulted in an INT instead of a first down.

 

I would submit that half or more of an NFL's QB's throws are not intended for the numbers on the jersey. 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, CincyBillsFan said:

 

On the face of it aiming only at the numbers on the uniform is dumb given the many different types of passes thrown by NFL caliber QB's.  Just off the top of my head it would be profoundly inaccurate (or stupid) for a QB to aim for the numbers of his 6 ft 6 inch WR being guarded by a 5 ft 10 in inch DB in the end zone.  I would think throwing the ball up high where his receivers height advantage could be used most effectively is the most ACCURATE pass in that situation.

 

Think about that spectacular pass Allen threw to Foster to convert a 3rd & 13 out of his end zone against Miami in their first meeting. The Throw was a laser beam deliberately put about a foot out of bounds so only Foster could catch it with his HANDS.  Aiming a pass for the number on Fosters Jersey would probably have resulted in an INT instead of a first down.

 

I would submit that half or more of an NFL's QB's throws are not intended for the numbers on the jersey. 

 

 

Correct.  The problem with all these measurements is that only the QB knows where he's aiming.

[formerlyofCtown]

Did you add Manning.

On 1/24/2019 at 6:39 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

I don't think ball velocity was much of a problem.  The complaint that Allen has no touch and puts too much into every pass is overblown, especially by the end of the season.

Judging by the numbers it possibly keeps his passes from being batted.

[YattaOkasan]

On 1/18/2019 at 11:48 AM, Shaw66 said:

You know, old man, I like words and I like precision, and I like precision in the use of words.   You and some others get off on this accuracy versus precision distinction every once in a while, and I sometimes pay attention to it.  

 

However, in my mind it's a distinction without any real significance.   I get that there's a difference - I think Brees is both accurate and precise, some guys are accurate and not precise and some may be precise but not accurate (although I doubt there are many of those).   

 

The point is that I seriously doubt that some coach in Buffalo is saying "we need to work on Allen's accuracy" and some other coach is saying "no, we need to work on his precision."   I think both coaches are looking at the same film of the same play and agreeing that the ball wasn't in as good a spot as they would prefer and then looking at the film to see if they can determine what it is that Allen needs to work on to get the ball in the right spot as often as possible.   It's not like they say "well, if he has an accuracy problem he needs to fix this and if he has a precision problem he needs to fix that."   For them, it's just semantics that doesn't add to the conversation.   They're just asking themselves what needs to be done to make Allen better.  

Really liked your contributions to this thread but wanted to reply to this topic. 

 

I think coahes could get to the accuracy/precision distinction. As you mentioned it’s all about getting the ball where it needs to be. coaches could see a lack of precision as evidenced by a change in or sloppy mechanics. That would lead to more reps for muscle memory. Or they could see his front foot not pointed correctly thus not being accurate despite consistent mechanics. Maybe they don’t talk about accuracy or precision but I think they talk in this way. If that’s the case I would think they are having an accuracy/precision discussion without knowing it. 

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, formerlyofCtown said:

Judging by the numbers it possibly keeps his passes from being batted.

 

That was what I saw.

 

Maybe unsurprisingly Baker Mayfield was the one with the most batted balls at the LOS.

 

I don't have the breakdown of tipped at the LOS vs mid air on the way to the WR, but Mayfield had the most at the LOS and Darnold had by far the most mid-flight.

[Foxx]

21 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

It's because I actually watched every single pass of all 5 rookies along with Watson--so far---and as I watched every single pass I identified each pass simply as catchable or uncatchable and what I saw was that Allen's accuracy was at least similar to all the other rookies this year and Watson last year.

 

That's why.

 

It's not that their observations don't align with my confirmation bias.  It's that their system is clearly overly intricate and impossible to accurately  chart with NINE different categories each throw would fall into.

 

And how is each of those categories defined?

 

For example, are passes 20 yards down the field to a WR who has to stop in the middle of a crossing route to catch the football in his chest still one of those throws that they categorize in that "Accurate+" circle in the middle of the body?

 

Seems like my "confirmation bias" is no stronger than theirs, honestly.

and i would counter that the PFF guys/gals watched every single pass as well. 

 

as far as their system/analysis being overly intricate (according to you), i doubt that it would be impossible to chart, being as, you know, they charted it. as an addendum here.. is it any more overly intricate than your ridicules charting of Tyrods passing? i mean, you did have the field broken down into NINE different sections, right?

 

how are each of their categories defined? i don't know to be honest, but i am willing to bet that they are defined.

 

as for confirmation bias, you do know what that term means, right? it means that you seek confirmation of your bias. being that PFF is a major analysis outfit, my money is on it being a hell of a lot more objective than your analysis. sure i could be wrong but i don't think so. i think the odds of their objectivity being innocently objective is considerably higher than yours.

 

again, i respect the time and effort you have put forth here, i'm just not real convinced of the conclusions being drawn. 

 

i want JA to be the man, i just don't know that he is or isn't the man at this point. after this coming year, i think we all will have a better idea just where he might stand on that desired want.

Edited January 30, 2019 by Foxx

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

and i would counter that the PFF guys/gals watched every single pass as well. 

 

as far as their system/analysis being overly intricate (according to you), i doubt that it would be impossible to chart, being as, you know, they charted it. as an addendum here.. is it any more overly intricate than your ridicules charting of Tyrods passing? i mean, you did have the field broken down into NINE different sections, right?

 

That's weird.

 

Why are you bringing up Taylor?

 

What does he have to do with this?

 

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

 

how are each of their categories defined? i don't know to be honest, but i am willing to bet that they are defined.

 

That's nice.  You can trust them if you want.

 

I got no problem with that.

 

But you're trusting them blindly.

 

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

 

as for confirmation bias, you do know what that term means, right? it means that you seek confirmation of your bias. being that PFF is a major analysis outfit, my money is on it being a hell of a lot more objective than your analysis. sure i could be wrong but i don't think so. i think the odds of their objectivity being innocently objective is considerably higher than yours.

 

Well, we can disagree.  And we do.  I think these "experts" and pundits are often victims of their own analysis, and what did the analysis about Allen coming out of college overwhelmingly state?

 

"Josh Allen has an area code accuracy problem and should sit on the bench for a year or two to learn the game."

 

Now that Allen's rookie year is over and it was for a team like the Bills that just doesn't get a lot of national attention who finished with a worse record than last year and Allen's numbers in the passing game look mediocre to poor, it's pretty easy to gloss over that with an "I was right" and move onto the next guy.

 

You can trust their system, but their system involves nine different categories.  If you trust that someone from PFF has accurately divided up Allen's 320 throws into those 9 categories--and it's actually probably significantly less than the 320 total throws because I would assume they would discard throwaways or batted/tipped passes, but since there's nothing to explain that part, who knows?--and is left with an average of less than 40 throws for each category, which means that a single ill-defined pass moves the needle more than a couple percentage points one way or the other....

 

then...

 

well...

 

you go ahead and do it.

 

I'm not even saying my numbers should be 100% trusted.  I did the exercise, was aware of potential subjectivity and tried to absolutely throw it out the window, but also acknowledge that that would be completely understandable for someone not to trust me.

 

But that's why I think you should try it yourself rather than blindly trust someone like PFF.

 

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

 

again, i respect the time and effort you have put forth here, i'm just not real convinced of the conclusions being drawn. 

 

You don't have to be.

 

Try it yourself and draw your own conclusions if you're that skeptical of mine.

 

If you distrust them that much, though, and just don't want to try the exercise, then what's the point of your arguing with me over something you refuse to do?

 

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

 

i want JA to be the man, i just don't know that he is or isn't the man at this point. after this coming year, i think we all will have a better idea just where he might stand on that desired want.

 

Agreed.

[Luka]

75% of those drop balls are caught, we're talking about Allen having 61% completion percentage and missing the playoffs by a game. Don't think Beane doesn't know this.

[Foxx]

18 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

That's weird.

 

Why are you bringing up Taylor?

 

What does he have to do with this?

 

 

That's nice.  You can trust them if you want.

 

I got no problem with that.

 

But you're trusting them blindly.

 

 

Well, we can disagree.  And we do.  I think these "experts" and pundits are often victims of their own analysis, and what did the analysis about Allen coming out of college overwhelmingly state?

 

"Josh Allen has an area code accuracy problem and should sit on the bench for a year or two to learn the game."

 

Now that Allen's rookie year is over and it was for a team like the Bills that just doesn't get a lot of national attention who finished with a worse record than last year and Allen's numbers in the passing game look mediocre to poor, it's pretty easy to gloss over that with an "I was right" and move onto the next guy.

 

You can trust their system, but their system involves nine different categories.  If you trust that someone from PFF has accurately divided up Allen's 320 throws into those 9 categories--and it's actually probably significantly less than the 320 total throws because I would assume they would discard throwaways or batted/tipped passes, but since there's nothing to explain that part, who knows?--and is left with an average of less than 40 throws for each category, which means that a single ill-defined pass moves the needle more than a couple percentage points one way or the other....

 

then...

 

well...

 

you go ahead and do it.

 

I'm not even saying my numbers should be 100% trusted.  I did the exercise, was aware of potential subjectivity and tried to absolutely throw it out the window, but also acknowledge that that would be completely understandable for someone not to trust me.

 

But that's why I think you should try it yourself rather than blindly trust someone like PFF.

 

 

You don't have to be.

 

Try it yourself and draw your own conclusions if you're that skeptical of mine.

 

If you distrust them that much, though, and just don't want to try the exercise, then what's the point of your arguing with me over something you refuse to do?

 

 

Agreed.

why did i bring up Taylor? lol. i used it as support for my argument of not only your confirmation bias but, apparently to your cognitive dissonance, as well. you claim that PFF using NINE categories was overly intricate and impossible to chart but when you did it, it was okay. understand?

 

i trust PFF because analysis over yours because they don't carry the same bias as you do, nothing more, nothing less.

 

as to your part about JA's accuracy out of college, PFF glossing over his stats and PFF's, 'discarding throwaways or batted/tipped passes', i don't know what to tell you. yes, JA probably didn't get the extreme scrutiny other 1A QB's did in school and that most of it was based upon the games he played against 1A schools. but it was based upon observations made and there were games that he was not close to being on target in several areas. he has displayed some of that in his rookie year, if one were to claim he hasn't, that is just being dishonest. his stats were affected in a myriad of ways and yes, a glossing over of them was most likely one but not a totally inaccurate summary. can he correct it, he made strides this past year but the book is not closed at this early juncture, he still has a ways to go. with regard to throwaways and tipped/batted passes, not sure what you are trying to insinuate here but if a ball is thrown away, does it count in his overall stats if viewed on the curve you are projecting? same with tipped batted balls, though that category is somewhat different.

 

do you understand that although you 'tried to absolutely throw your subjectivity out', that there is a good chance there was still some there?

 

no, i won't do the exercise myself. one my bias would get in the way, because i am a homer. two, i don't have the time nor the desire, it will borne itself out in the coming days. three, if your track record wasn't what it is in these evaluations, i would give them more credence. like i said, i do admire the effort and the perseverance to think that every QB the Bills have is simply the best. with that i will resume the sideline watch and leave you to your thread for now.

Edited January 31, 2019 by Foxx

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

why did i bring up Taylor? lol. i used it as support for my argument of not only your confirmation bias but, apparently to your cognitive dissonance, as well. you claim that PFF using NINE categories was overly intricate and impossible to chart but when you did it, it was okay. understand?

 

But it doesn't support your argument.

 

I'm assuming you're pointing to my breakdown of Taylor throwing over the middle of the field a few years ago?

 

#1:  That wasn't an overly intricate or impossible to chart system.

 

#2:  You're really going to use an argument made now 3 years ago--I believe that was the offseason after Taylor's 1st year--to support your adhominem argument?  Doesn't make much sense

 

Understand?

 

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

 

i trust PFF because analysis over yours because they don't carry the same bias as you do, nothing more, nothing less.

 

No, they might not carry the same bias as me, but that doesn't mean they don't carry bias.

 

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

 

as to your part about JA's accuracy out of college, PFF glossing over his stats and PFF's, 'discarding throwaways or batted/tipped passes', i don't know what to tell you. yes, JA probably didn't get the extreme scrutiny other 1A QB's did in school and that most of it was based upon the games he played against 1A schools. but it was based upon observations made and there were games that he was not close to being on target in several areas. he has displayed some of that in his rookie year, if one were to claim he hasn't, that is just being dishonest. his stats were affected in a myriad of ways and yes, a glossing over of them was most likely one but not a totally inaccurate summary. can he correct it, he made strides this past year but the book is not closed at this early juncture, he still has a ways to go. with regard to throwaways and tipped/batted passes, not sure what you are trying to insinuate here but if a ball is thrown away, does it count in his overall stats if viewed on the curve you are projecting? same with tipped batted balls, though that category is somewhat different.

 

Of course throwaways are part of overall stats.

 

Duh.

 

But does PFF count them?

 

Do they count batted/tipped passes?

 

That image just shows passes that are underthrows and overthrows.  So are throwaways in the overthrow category?  Considering a throwaway is something often thought of as a positive thing, to include them in an accuracy breakdown is disingenuous.

 

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

 

do you understand that although you 'tried to absolutely throw your subjectivity out', that there is a good chance there was still some there?

 

Of course.  How many times have I said that already?  How many times do you need me to say it?

 

And do you understand that PFF has people, not robots charting all of these passes and that all people are subjective?

 

I didn't expect my findings to sway a poster like you who has it out for me, but at the very least, I would have hoped it would have pushed you to look at at least a handful of games, chart your findings, come back with what you have so you can then shoot me down rather than just lazily accept PFF's findings.

 

My problem isn't even with the numbers they came up with for Allen, it's the pretty clear disparity between his numbers and those of Mayfield and Jackson.  

 

 

1 hour ago, Foxx said:

 

no, i won't do the exercise myself. one my bias would get in the way, because i am a homer. two, i don't have the time nor the desire, it will borne itself out in the coming days. three, if your track record wasn't what it is in these evaluations, i would give them more credence. like i said, i do admire the effort and the perseverance to think that every QB the Bills have is simply the best. with that i will resume the sideline watch and leave you to your thread for now.

 

Would your bias be in the way in the sense that you'd be looking to find any way to discredit my own findings?  You aren't that petty, are you?

 

As far as time, believe it or not, you can do it relatively quickly if you have 2 browsers open and gamepass.  Just click on the game logs and look at the play by plays and find where all the passes are so you can go right to those passes rather than watching every play.  

 

Sacrifice a couple hours of reading and posting on here for charting your own numbers and you aren't sacrificing any time at all, actually.  That's what I did.

 

As far as track record for evaluations, I think I've done visual evaluations of plays on gamepass only one other time and that was the Taylor middle of the field thing a few years ago that you referenced, and again, much to your distaste of Taylor, there wasn't much wrong there, either.

[JaCrispy]

Get a room, you two...this is a matter that can only be settled between the sheets.

Edited January 31, 2019 by JaCrispy

[transplantbillsfan]

16 minutes ago, ScottLaw said:

Yes, but he didn't make throws like that enough. He was very inconsistent, hence people saying he is inaccurate. 

 

Enough by what metric?

 

Your own or the standard held to other NFL rookie QBs?

 

If it's the latter--which is what I'd assume you're referring to--the worst thing I think you could say is that Allen's "inaccurate" passes were wider or more off the mark than the other rookies, but his inaccurate throws didn't actually happen with greater frequency than the other guys.

Edited January 31, 2019 by transplantbillsfan

[transplantbillsfan]

On 1/31/2019 at 11:37 AM, JaCrispy said:

Get a room, you two...this is a matter that can only be settled between the sheets.

 

Well... I guess that would partially explain why he's bringin up irrelevant old $#!+ the way my wife does in the middle of and argument about why I didn't take the garbage out.

 

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Well... I guess that would partially explain why he's bringin up irrelevant old $#!+ the way my wife does in the middle of and argument about why I didn't take the garbage out.

 

 

I don’t know, but......maybe you should just take out the garbage? 

[Warcodered]

Just now, Augie said:

 

I don’t know, but......maybe you should just take out the garbage? 

Or stop biting her on the ass.

[Augie]

3 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Or stop biting her on the ass.

 

That did not appear to be the foreplay she was looking for. Read the mood, dude! 

[transplantbillsfan]

49 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

Or stop biting her on the ass.

 

45 minutes ago, Augie said:

 

That did not appear to be the foreplay she was looking for. Read the mood, dude! 

 

Hey, she never used our safe word

[PrimeTime101]

3 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

Hey, she never used our safe word

Accuracy >>> there I said it

[Foxx]

history is our best guide to future performance.

[racketmaster]

I think the OP has done a lot of work in reviewing the tape and makes some great points. For my own part I went back and reviewed one of Allen's games (week 13 v. Miami).

His passing stat line for the game was 18 of 33 for 231yds and 2Tds and 2ints. And for this discussion the all important completion % was 54%. Not that impressive if you just look at the raw numbers. But watching the game closely tells a different story and here is what I saw:

Throwaways to avoid sacks: 4

Hail Mary at end of half because our kicker could not attempt a 58yd field goal and this resulted in 1 of his interceptions. 

Drops: 4 including a big drop by Benjamin that would have been a TD (alligator arms) and the back shoulder throw to Zay on final drive that was perfectly placed and overturned.

Big time throws: 7 

Misses: 6 (and I struggled with the final play to Clay and decided to make it a drop because Clay got his hands under it and I see wrs make that play 8 times out of 10)

Rushing: 9 for 135 

 

So of the 33 pass attempts Allen missed on 6 of them. He had a couple of bad misses early in the game but settled down as game progressed. In reality, Allen was on target for 22 of 28 passes in this game (I extracted the hail marry and 4 drops). So he was on target for 78.5% of his passes and he made 7 big time throws. He had very few check down and screen completions so he was pushing the ball down the field. 

 

I think we can live with 6 missed throws in a game, especially if it amounts to just 1 interception. Plus, with all the rushing, avoiding sacks and big time throws Allen more than made up for the misses. I'll take a look at some more games but to the OP's point, Allen does not appear to be an inaccurate passer. 

 

Edited February 2, 2019 by racketmaster

[racketmaster]

Jets week 14: Allen stat line is 18 of 36 for 201yds and 0tds and 2ints (less than impressive stat line). What does reviewing the game show:

Throwaways: 2

Drops: 7 (this includes the Zay Jones play in end zone on 3rd down at end of game as it was really close as to whether he could get his feet down but perfect throw and went threw his hands again)

Big time throws: I saw only 3

Misses: 9 including 2 interceptions

In reality Allen was on target for 25 of 34 passes for an on target rate of 73.5%. He had a number of bad and critical drops in this game but also threw 2 bad interceptions. Not included was his 9 carries for 101 yards and 1 td. Not his best game but he played well enough to win and our special teams was horrible in this game. 

[racketmaster]

Detroit Week 15: Allen stat line is 13 of 26 for 204yds 1td and 0int. 

Watching game shows:

Throwaways: 5

Hail Mary: 1 at end of first half he makes desperation throw down field to Jones but broken up

Drops/Broken up: I had 2 drops and 1 to Jones that was on target but broken up by a defensive back

Big time throws: 4

Misses: 3

So in reality Allen was on target with 17 of 20 passes for an 85% on target rate. Plus he had a nice rushing td in this game. 

[racketmaster]

So in 3 watching 3 of Allen's games he has been on target with 64 of 82 passes in which he was attempting to hit a target (extracted throwaways and hail mary throws). That is an on target rate of 78% (almost 4 of 5 passes are on target).

Not sure what the league average is but watching the Allen's games coming back from his injury he appears to be fairly accurate. Plus, he add a rushing dimension and the ability to make big time chunk throws. 

 

Upgrading the te/wr/rb position in talent would certainly help the completion percentage and will add passing yardage as well as passing tds. Allen is an aggressive passer who likes to push the ball down the field. I don't think he will ever be a league leader in completion percentage but I think with better targets he can get close to 60%. That is good enough with his rushing and ability to create chunk plays in the passing game.

[row_33]

On 1/31/2019 at 4:37 PM, JaCrispy said:

Get a room, you two...this is a matter that can only be settled between the sheets.

 

Most depressing waste of time this week

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, racketmaster said:

So in 3 watching 3 of Allen's games he has been on target with 64 of 82 passes in which he was attempting to hit a target (extracted throwaways and hail mary throws). That is an on target rate of 78% (almost 4 of 5 passes are on target).

Not sure what the league average is but watching the Allen's games coming back from his injury he appears to be fairly accurate. Plus, he add a rushing dimension and the ability to make big time chunk throws. 

 

Upgrading the te/wr/rb position in talent would certainly help the completion percentage and will add passing yardage as well as passing tds. Allen is an aggressive passer who likes to push the ball down the field. I don't think he will ever be a league leader in completion percentage but I think with better targets he can get close to 60%. That is good enough with his rushing and ability to create chunk plays in the passing game.

 

Considering I came up with 78.1% overall for Catchable passes on the season, I'd say your 78% is pretty damn well in line with what I saw.

 

And your anecdotal breakdowns of each game are great.

 

Good stuff!

[John from Riverside]

On 1/31/2019 at 1:37 PM, JaCrispy said:

Get a room, you two...this is a matter that can only be settled between the sheets.

OK....I had to laugh at this

[racketmaster]

54 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Considering I came up with 78.1% overall for Catchable passes on the season, I'd say your 78% is pretty damn well in line with what I saw.

 

And your anecdotal breakdowns of each game are great.

 

Good stuff!

I added weeks 16 and 17 in and that brought Allen's on target rate down a bit to 73.7%. Outside of the clear throwaways, hail mary plays and obvious drops, I pretty much consider the incompletions to be misses even though some of those are obvious miscommunication plays between the wr and qb. I put it on Allen as a miss because he is the one targeting the wr and needs to make sure they are on the same page. 

 

In week 16 I had Allen going 26 of 39 for 66% (I have the full breakdown like the others but most are probably not interested in it). In reality Allen's stats were not good 20 of 41 for 217yds 1td and 2int. However, the yardage and touchdowns could have been much different as I saw 3 touchdown opportunities slipped through the Bills wrs hands. (1) Foster in sun was there and should have been a long td, (2) Foster at goaline miss timed his jump and let an opportunity slip away, (3) Logan Thomas let a big time throw slip threw his hands in the end zone. Catch 2 of 3 and the stats look very different as does the game.

 

In week 17 I had Allen being on target 17 of 24 passes at 70.8%. He had 7 misses in this game including the pick 6 which was a nice read by the defender. Still he accounted for 5tds and was pretty dynamic on the ground again.