So our bust qb was responsible for nearly 400 yards of offense

[Doc]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

Every single QB is going to have the same variables as far as throwing the ball away, etc. Completion pctg is a pretty good metric for determining accuracy for an NFL QB.

 

What is so controversial about saying he needs to become a more efficient passer?

 

Nothing.  But what is wrong with admitting his supporting cast is poor and a reason why his completion percentage suffers?

[oldmanfan]

2 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Every single QB is going to have the same variables as far as throwing the ball away, etc. Completion pctg is a pretty good metric for determining accuracy for an NFL QB.

 

What is so controversial about saying he needs to become a more efficient passer?

Nothing.  I've said often he has things to learn and has a ways to go.  But this business about some magical difference between 60% and 55% completion rate somehow meaning he's inaccurate and that it's some bellweather is nonsense, and simple math and stats show it.

[Bill_with_it]

5 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Every single QB is going to have the same variables as far as throwing the ball away, etc. Completion pctg is a pretty good metric for determining accuracy for an NFL QB.

 

What is so controversial about saying he needs to become a more efficient passer?

Thats simply incorrect. I guarantee Brady and Goff throw the ball away less than other qbs. Have you watched any other game than the Bills? Every rb in new englands offense usually turns around 3 yards from the line of scrimmage looking for the ball. Thats a staple of the Patriots offense. Touchdown to checkdown.

[LSHMEAB]

5 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Nothing.  But what is wrong with admitting his supporting cast is poor and a reason why his completion percentage suffers?

Nothing. But there are still some head scratching errant throws that need to be minimized. I don't expect them to be eliminated because precision passing is not his thing and he's elite in terms of arm strength and mobility. Better supporting cast will certainly help, but he's also got to cut down on the mistakes. Hopefully that comes with confidence/comfort at this level. This past performance was encouraging.

2 minutes ago, Bill_with_it said:

Thats simply incorrect. I guarantee Brady and Goff throw the ball away less than other qbs. Have you watched any other game than the Bills? Every rb in new englands offense usually turns around 3 yards from the line of scrimmage looking for the ball. Thats a staple of the Patriots offense. Touchdown to checkdown.

Then we're gonna need to alter our offense and Josh is going to have to work on touch. 

[GoBills808]

13 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

This is fair.  Clearly I am not doing a good job of making my argument.  The Tebow comparison I tried to make wasn’t about Allen and Tebow being the same guy, but was an attempt to make my original and only point here wich is that Accuracy way more often than not, doesn’t just happen, many very good prospects, with good coaching often fail to improve this vital skill.  My whole point is that many many posters here, when talking about Allen, are dismissive of his lack of accuracy and explain it away like it’s simply a matter of time and is bound to happen.  If there were several past cases I’d this happening then it would be something to be assumed and dismissive about.  The past suggests that in fact accuracy is very difficult to improve and for a good many humans, is something you are born with or not.  I am not taking anything away from the raw prospect he is.  He is a tremendous prospect.  I would be excited at this point if I were a bulls fan to see if he can get better because he shows so much of what you want a QB to be.  That said it is not a given he’ll ever be consistently accurate enough to be a franchise type QB and any analysis that involves just assuming some linear improvement.  

 

The accuracy is is a concern and a problem.  It was on draft day and it still is.  

At risk of collecting another point: your argument is garbage. You started by saying he's 'inaccurate' which, by your definition, is measured by completion percentage. Which is just...again, I guess this is risky, but there's really no way around it: it's dumb. It's so misguided, so short-sighted, so ridiculously agenda-driven to look at a guy's completion percentage and say 'hey he's inaccurate' you might as well not have said anything. At least then I might have given you the benefit of the doubt. But since you're keeping at it- completion percentage is dependent on SO MANY VARIABLES outside how accurately a QB throws the ball that to quantify it thus is simply exposing your ignorance. Imagine, say, throwing the exact same ball the exact same amount of times against the same defense to Charles Clay and Travis Kelce. The QB (it could even be the SAME QB) throwing to Clay is going to have a lower completion percentage, throwing the exact same ball in the exact same spot, exactly the same accuracy. Now do it for Kelvin Benjamin and Tyreek Hill. Or the scrubs at Wyoming vs Louisville wideouts. Still not getting the picture?

 

You don't understand what 'accuracy' even is. It's not some intangible thing 'you're born with or not'. It's the ability to replicate, over a given amount of time, consistent ball placement. Allen can make all the throws, hit all the spots, as shown thus far. He's made accurate throws. He has accuracy. Stop saying he doesn't, because you're wrong. Sorry. What he lacks is CONSISTENCY, a concept not unrelated to accuracy but wholly different, in that it concerns certain functions (read: teachable, duplicable, ABLE TO IMPROVE UPON) QB mechanics that a guy like Allen, generally considered 'raw', may not have yet mastered and have prevented him from being CONSISTENTLY ACCURATE. You see the difference? 

 

Your insistence on comparing him to Tebow, or saying that he was outperformed by Barkley and Anderson, led me to believe you were trolling. If you weren't I apologize...it's possible you genuinely don't know what you're talking about. I hope this serves to help. Consider actually watching the Bills play first, THEN offer up your takes. My rep w/the moderators will thank you for it.

[stinky finger]

On 12/2/2018 at 6:40 PM, PeterDude said:

 

I'm not the one with the burden of proof, I'll be here.

 

You really hope you're right, don't you?

[Bill_with_it]

13 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Nothing. But there are still some head scratching errant throws that need to be minimized. I don't expect them to be eliminated because precision passing is not his thing and he's elite in terms of arm strength and mobility. Better supporting cast will certainly help, but he's also got to cut down on the mistakes. Hopefully that comes with confidence/comfort at this level. This past performance was encouraging.

Then we're gonna need to alter our offense and Josh is going to have to work on touch. 

We win that game if the guy who gets paid to be a professional pass catcher whom the ball hits bith hands who is also on our special teams hands teams for onsides kicks catches the ball. We dont have to change anything except for execution of the game.

[Kelly the Dog]

Inaccuracy takes a lot of forms. Two of the latest Bills QBs were inaccurate passers, EJ and Tyrod, regardless of their completion percentage. Many, many of their completions were not really accurate passes, hitting players right on the numbers or easy for RAC or getting a first down because they were reaching for completed passes. Josh, however, guns many of his passes right on the money, often through tight windows. He's very often extremely accurate.

 

An "inaccurate passer" doesn't do that nearly as much as Allen. 

[Success]

35 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

His completion percentage is 52.9.

 

I would say he must get better if he wants to be a top QB. 

Think about the game yesterday.  18-33.  After a 1-6 start.  The last 2 passes should have been catches.  There were at least 2 other easy drops.  There was the bomb to Foster that missed by a foot, and a Hail Mary.

 

People only bring up accuracy with Allen because it was in scouting reports they googled on draft day.

[oldmanfan]

33 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

Every single QB is going to have the same variables as far as throwing the ball away, etc. Completion pctg is a pretty good metric for determining accuracy for an NFL QB.

 

What is so controversial about saying he needs to become a more efficient passer?

By the way, a sweeping generalization like this with no support adds nothing to the discussion.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, Zerovotlz said:

This is fair.  Clearly I am not doing a good job of making my argument.  The Tebow comparison I tried to make wasn’t about Allen and Tebow being the same guy, but was an attempt to make my original and only point here wich is that Accuracy way more often than not, doesn’t just happen, many very good prospects, with good coaching often fail to improve this vital skill.  My whole point is that many many posters here, when talking about Allen, are dismissive of his lack of accuracy and explain it away like it’s simply a matter of time and is bound to happen.  If there were several past cases I’d this happening then it would be something to be assumed and dismissive about.  The past suggests that in fact accuracy is very difficult to improve and for a good many humans, is something you are born with or not.  I am not taking anything away from the raw prospect he is.  He is a tremendous prospect.  I would be excited at this point if I were a bulls fan to see if he can get better because he shows so much of what you want a QB to be.  That said it is not a given he’ll ever be consistently accurate enough to be a franchise type QB and any analysis that involves just assuming some linear improvement.  

 

The accuracy is is a concern and a problem.  It was on draft day and it still is.  

 

I agree with the point that it's not at all a given that accuracy will improve.

 

One of the things that concerns me most about Allen is his relative inaccuracy on the "gimme" throws, the quick dump offs, the screens and so forth.  One could see this at the combine if one turned off the announcers and just watched, one could see this at his pro day, and one can see this in games.  To be fair, it's pretty clear that Allen has been working hard at this and I do see improvement.  But it's not "money" for him yet, and it needs to be "money", 75-80%.

 

On the other hand, people who want to say "he's inaccurate" are, IMO, often looking at throws which are off by feet or yards, where it's not at all clear whether Allen and the receiver were on the same page, whether the route was being run as expected, and so forth.  Typically when any guy who has made it through HS and college as a QB is off by yards, it's because the ball more-or-less went where the QB wanted it to, the receiver was just expecting the QB to want it to go somewhere else and that's where he went - somewhere else.

 

That's not to say that Allen has the pinpoint accuracy of Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees at this point, or will ever develop it, just that usually when I read people talking about Allen making "a bad throw" or "he's inaccurate", the throw that they're referencing isn't a clear example of inaccuracy.

 

18 minutes ago, Success said:

People only bring up accuracy with Allen because it was in scouting reports they googled on draft day.

 

Or eyeballs.  People bring up accuracy with Allen because, eyeballs.  Truly.  Although again, TBF, the throws that people assert as "bad throws" or "inaccurate" are often the ones that are most likely to be the WR and QB not being on the same page.

[Magox]

I started a thread right when Allen was drafted saying that it was completely overblown the criticism regarding his lack of "accuracy".    That although it's true that he does miss some easy passes and that I completely chalk that up to mechanics but he actually can be pretty damn accurate.   

 

He is an exciting QB and he is showing that he's even more athletic than we had all anticipated, I knew he was athletic but the stuff that he's doing right now is jaw dropping.  He's a highlight reel waiting to happen.  I feel like if the ball is in his hands anything can happen.

 

And even though he's had 2 incredible rushing for yards performance that isn't what's going to define him.    I said it in that thread, what is going to make him special will be his ability to extend plays out of the pocket and make plays down the field.  If we can get some weapons who know how to make plays down the field and recognize that with Allen they need to learn to put in the extra time to make plays outside of the intended route down the field we are going to see some real fireworks.    He's going to make his name throwing the ball outside of the pocket. 

 

He'll never be a top 5 pocket passer but if he can become average in the pocket and elite outside of it then that's our franchise QB.

[LSHMEAB]

1 hour ago, Success said:

Think about the game yesterday.  18-33.  After a 1-6 start.  The last 2 passes should have been catches.  There were at least 2 other easy drops.  There was the bomb to Foster that missed by a foot, and a Hail Mary.

 

People only bring up accuracy with Allen because it was in scouting reports they googled on draft day.

No. They bring up accuracy issues because his completion pctg in college was crap and his NFL completion pctg is crap.

 

He does not have great touch on gimmies and he makes some head scratching errant throws.

 

For all his strengths, he is not a particularly accurate passer. Simply acknowledging an obvious flaw shouldn't be that difficult. 

Edited December 4, 2018 by LSHMEAB

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

No. They bring up accuracy issues because his completion pctg in college was crap and his NFL completion pctg is crap.

 

He does not have great touch on gimmies and he makes some head scratching errant throws.

 

For all his strengths, he is not a particularly accurate passer. Simply acknowledging an obvious flaw shouldn't be that difficult. 

People have explained with rational explanation why you're wrong but you keep clinging to irrational thoughts.  

[LSHMEAB]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

By the way, a sweeping generalization like this with no support adds nothing to the discussion.

His completion percentage sucks. He has not demonstrated touch on what should be gimmies. He's got a rocket arm and incredible mobility.

 

One man's sweeping generalization is another man's fact.

 

You're the one twisting in knots making excuses for a poor number.

 

Edit: It's really hard to have honest dialogue with people who seem incapable of honestly assessing the kid's performance. Message board discussions aside, he needs to improve his efficiency numbers. It's really not complicated.

Edited December 4, 2018 by LSHMEAB

[oldmanfan]

Just now, LSHMEAB said:

His completion percentage sucks. He has not demonstrated touch on what should be gimmies. He's got a rocket arm and incredible mobility.

 

One man's sweeping generalization is another man's fact.

 

You're the one twisting in knots making excuses for a poor number.

I explained the math about completion percentage.  You throw 30 passes in a game it's 1.5 passes different between 60% and 55%.  Those are factual mathematics and statistically meaningless.   You continue to make grand criticisms based on nothing factual.

 

Young QBs need to develop.  We all know that.  Except for you apparently.

[HappyDays]

13 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

For all his strengths, he is not a particularly accurate passer.

 

This is totally different from being an accurate passer. He is not a particularly accurate passer, as in he will never be known for his consistently precise ball placement like Brees and Brady. That is not the same thing as saying he is an inaccurate passer. The comparison to EJ Manuel is perfect. Allen made at least 3 throws yesterday that were more accurate than anything Manuel ever threw when you account for difficulty of the throw. Off the top of my head the sideline pass to Zay, the 2nd TD to Zay, and the ball thrown to McKenzie on I think the last drive of the 1st half. Those were all extremely accurate passes. I'm pretty sure after his first 2 inaccurate passes he only had 2 more.

Edited December 4, 2018 by HappyDays

[PIZ]

"It took Tom Brady just 18 seasons and 12 games to reach 1,000 rushing yards".

 

The Checkdown presents  “A Football Life: Run Tommy, Run” featuring NFL Legends. 

[LSHMEAB]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

I explained the math about completion percentage.  You throw 30 passes in a game it's 1.5 passes different between 60% and 55%.  Those are factual mathematics and statistically meaningless.   You continue to make grand criticisms based on nothing factual.

 

Young QBs need to develop.  We all know that.  Except for you apparently.

Yes. They need to develop and get better in areas where there is room for growth. In Allen's case, that would be accuracy and efficiency. I'm not sure why this concept is so difficult for you to comprehend.

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is totally different from being an accurate passer. He is not a particularly accurate passer, as in he will never be known for his consistently precise ball placement like Brees and Brady. That is not the same thing as saying he is an inaccurate passer. The comparison to EJ Manuel is perfect. Allen made at least 3 throws yesterday that were more accurate than anything Manuel ever threw when you account for difficulty of the throw. Off the top of my head the sideline pass to Zay, the 2nd TD to Zay, and the ball thrown to McKenzie on I think the last drive of the 1st half. Those were all extremely accurate passes. I'm pretty sure after his first 2 inaccurate passes he only had 2 more.

I don't really disagree with any of this as I'm more bullish on Allen than I've ever been. His strengths are really something else and even better than advertised. The TD to Jones in the back of the endzone was a wakeup call to anyone not wiling to at least give him a chance.

 

In order to take that next step, he's going to need to develop some touch on the short and intermediate passes. Perhaps that will come with repetition and confidence.

[Kelly the Dog]

6 minutes ago, LSHMEAB said:

 

In order to take that next step, he's going to need to develop some touch on the short and intermediate passes. Perhaps that will come with repetition and confidence.

 

The lob to DiMarco was perfect touch on an intermediate pass and example he took a lot off his throw. He threw a couple darts on short passes to McKenzie. He threw a very accurate short pass to McCoy on the second play of the 90 yard two-minute drive just when we needed it. 

[LSHMEAB]

4 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

The lob to DiMarco was perfect touch on an intermediate pass and example he took a lot off his throw. He threw a couple darts on short passes to McKenzie. He threw a very accurate short pass to McCoy on the second play of the 90 yard two-minute drive just when we needed it. 

And once he starts doing those things with consistency, his YPA will rise and his doubters will be silenced.

 

Until then, the jury is still out. Like I said, that game opened a lot of eyes as to what a QB with his skill set can do.

 

If he wants to be elite, he must get more consistent with the gimmies and also get better at recognizing where to go with the ball. You can tell the kid is working his a** off so there's no reason to think he won't make it a top priority.

Edited December 4, 2018 by LSHMEAB

[Kelly the Dog]

1 minute ago, LSHMEAB said:

And once he starts doing those things with consistency, his YPA will rise and his doubters will be silenced.

 

Until then, the jury is still out. Like I said, that game opened a lot of eyes as to what a QB with his skill set can do.

 

If he wants to be elite, he must get more consistent with the gimmies and also get better at recognition. You can tell the kid is working his a** off so there's no reason to think he won't make it a top priority.

Name all the short and intermediate passes that were obviously inaccurate. I know there were some but not that many. Most of his incompletions were significantly downfield. He threw a few bad intermediate passes early, no question. But no more than the average game of QBs I'm sure you would consider consisting accurate.

[Alphadawg7]

On 12/2/2018 at 3:50 PM, PeterDude said:

 

The ball left his hand early and it fluttered/floated, the damn player even said so himself!  You guys are something else lmao. It left his hand wrong because his feet were not set, ya know, one of the knocks on him coming out of college...

 

Are you out of your mind?  Feet not set?  Hahahaha you’re analysis is awful.  He was running for his life and had to throw 50+ yards through the air and across his body.  You can’t even fathom how hard that throw was and honestly, most QBs in the NFL couldn’t make that throw...not mention most QBs would have never even gotten the chance to make that throw as they never would have evaded the pressure.  

 

Allen was our entire offense, like almost 400 yards himself.  And that’s with no run game support and dropped passes to go along with all the penalties.  

 

And like I told you earlier, the fact you don’t know the difference between a running QB (Vick, TT, Lamar) and a scrambling QB (pass first QB who can beat you with his legs when necessary...Steve Young, Elway, Brunel, Luck, Rogers, Wilson, Big Ben, etc) tells us all we need to know about your ability to discuss QBs.  

 

Anyone who compares Allen to a Tyrod style type QB is lazy and uninformed.  Stop reading stat sheets and assume they are the same style of player just because Allen has rushing yards.  

[BillsFan2313]

On 12/2/2018 at 4:32 PM, buffalobillswin said:

Stats are nice. Wins are better.

 

Lol. Forgot football isnt a team sport. 

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, LSHMEAB said:

Yes. They need to develop and get better in areas where there is room for growth. In Allen's case, that would be accuracy and efficiency. I'm not sure why this concept is so difficult for you to comprehend.

I don't really disagree with any of this as I'm more bullish on Allen than I've ever been. His strengths are really something else and even better than advertised. The TD to Jones in the back of the endzone was a wakeup call to anyone not wiling to at least give him a chance.

 

In order to take that next step, he's going to need to develop some touch on the short and intermediate passes. Perhaps that will come with repetition and confidence.

One touch pass that was perfect was the wheel route to Dimarco.

[Zerovoltz]

.....the argument that The difference between Allen being a 60% thrower and a 55% thrower is 1.5 passes completed if he attempts 30 passes.  

 

This is is mathematically correct but you can apply this to every QB.  Somehow others manage to consistently complete at a higher pct despite also having to throw a ball away, have the receiver drop the pass etc.  

 

quarterbacks not not named Josh Allen have higher completion pct with the same group.

 

my point remains.  Allen is an incredible prospect with lots of gifts and talent and he has a very substantial set of data to look at that suggests he isn’t accurate and that it is far from a given he ever will be.  

 

My point isn’t that I think Allen is awful or that  I think he can’t improve or that given better supporting cast improvement can’t happen.

 

It is not a given.  Another example of a guy with a great arm, gifts etc was Kyle Boler.  A guy coaches thought wasn’t accurate due to supporting cast at college and who they could coach up and surround with talent and fix him.  There are a lot of Kyle Bolers.  Accuracy, efficiency whatever you want to call it... but it is HARD to teach.  Making quick reads, and then the proper pass don’t tend to be things that can be improved much of at all by coaching or better players around.

 

ive said in many other threads here that given his incredible natural gifts and his football upbringing he is worthwhile.  I can buy the argument that he was a farm kid that never was coached up as a kid, as a high school player or in college....

 

its not a given and if Allen does develop into a legit franchise QB he will have beaten long odds and the Bills leadership will deserve to be praised as geniuses.  

[BillsFan130]

15 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

This is totally different from being an accurate passer. He is not a particularly accurate passer, as in he will never be known for his consistently precise ball placement like Brees and Brady. That is not the same thing as saying he is an inaccurate passer. The comparison to EJ Manuel is perfect. Allen made at least 3 throws yesterday that were more accurate than anything Manuel ever threw when you account for difficulty of the throw. Off the top of my head the sideline pass to Zay, the 2nd TD to Zay, and the ball thrown to McKenzie on I think the last drive of the 1st half. Those were all extremely accurate passes. I'm pretty sure after his first 2 inaccurate passes he only had 2 more.

Even that pass to foster on the last drive. (The first play) Was an absolute strike in a tight window

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

.....the argument that The difference between Allen being a 60% thrower and a 55% thrower is 1.5 passes completed if he attempts 30 passes.  

 

This is is mathematically correct but you can apply this to every QB.  Somehow others manage to consistently complete at a higher pct despite also having to throw a ball away, have the receiver drop the pass etc.  

 

quarterbacks not not named Josh Allen have higher completion pct with the same group.

 

my point remains.  Allen is an incredible prospect with lots of gifts and talent and he has a very substantial set of data to look at that suggests he isn’t accurate and that it is far from a given he ever will be.  

 

My point isn’t that I think Allen is awful or that  I think he can’t improve or that given better supporting cast improvement can’t happen.

 

It is not a given.  Another example of a guy with a great arm, gifts etc was Kyle Boler.  A guy coaches thought wasn’t accurate due to supporting cast at college and who they could coach up and surround with talent and fix him.  There are a lot of Kyle Bolers.  Accuracy, efficiency whatever you want to call it... but it is HARD to teach.  Making quick reads, and then the proper pass don’t tend to be things that can be improved much of at all by coaching or better players around.

 

ive said in many other threads here that given his incredible natural gifts and his football upbringing he is worthwhile.  I can buy the argument that he was a farm kid that never was coached up as a kid, as a high school player or in college....

 

its not a given and if Allen does develop into a legit franchise QB he will have beaten long odds and the Bills leadership will deserve to be praised as geniuses.  

So...you've now given us Tim Tebow and Kyle Boller as Allen comps. Might as well go whole hog and throw in Jamarcus Russell for the trifecta of terrible QB takes.

[Zerovoltz]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

So...you've now given us Tim Tebow and Kyle Boller as Allen comps. Might as well go whole hog and throw in Jamarcus Russell for the trifecta of terrible QB takes.

 

I’m giving those guys as examples of prospects who “just needed to be more accurate”.   Allen is an incredible prospect.  More gifted than those guys.  The comparison is that NFL people and fans thought it was just a matter of more time more reps and more coaching and the accuracy, passing efficiency, was going to happen, like a forgone conclusion.

 

most of the fans on this board speak of Allen exactly this same way.  More time more reps and better supporting cast has been the failing formula to improve accuracy for decades.  Many here seem to think success is right around the corner.  

[GoBills808]

2 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

I’m giving those guys as examples of prospects who “just needed to be more accurate”.   Allen is an incredible prospect.  More gifted than those guys.  The comparison is that NFL people and fans thought it was just a matter of more time more reps and more coaching and the accuracy, passing efficiency, was going to happen, like a forgone conclusion.

 

most of the fans on this board speak of Allen exactly this same way.  More time more reps and better supporting cast has been the failing formula to improve accuracy for decades.  Many here seem to think success is right around the corner.  

Cool. And I think Mahomes is a lot like Foles: basically a bad QB who had one good year and then is destined to fade into obscurity. Sure, Mahomes has a slightly better completion % but Foles had a much better TD/INT ratio and they had exactly the same YPA of 9.1. Just two systems QBs. Everything they're saying about Mahomes now they said about Foles in 2013. Many seem to think they're bound to follow similar paths. 

[26CornerBlitz]

9 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Cool. And I think Mahomes is a lot like Foles: basically a bad QB who had one good year and then is destined to fade into obscurity. Sure, Mahomes has a slightly better completion % but Foles had a much better TD/INT ratio and they had exactly the same YPA of 9.1. Just two systems QBs. Everything they're saying about Mahomes now they said about Foles in 2013. Many seem to think they're bound to follow similar paths. 

 

Terrible take!

[GoBills808]

26 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Terrible take!

Yup!

[Zerovoltz]

4 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Cool. And I think Mahomes is a lot like Foles: basically a bad QB who had one good year and then is destined to fade into obscurity. Sure, Mahomes has a slightly better completion % but Foles had a much better TD/INT ratio and they had exactly the same YPA of 9.1. Just two systems QBs. Everything they're saying about Mahomes now they said about Foles in 2013. Many seem to think they're bound to follow similar paths. 

 

What numbers would you like to use to measure his progress as a passer and how much time do you think is enough to see results?

[formerlyofCtown]

I took some flack for my QB rankings in the draft.

Mayfield

Allen

Rudolph(Yes 26CBI still think so)

Rudolph is the only one who hasnt proven me correct yet.  While I felt Allen has enormous upside(John Elway or above ceiling), I believed Mayfield was and is a sure thing.  Allen will meet that potential and in 30 years the end rankings will be

Allen-HOF

Mayfield-HOF

Rudolph-HOF

Rosen-Journeyman backup that will be a Fitzpatrick type

Darnold-Bust

Jackson-still a big wild card. Bust-HOF depends on the position he ends up in. (I dont mean WR or QB, I mean HC, QBC, and OC)

 

23 hours ago, LSHMEAB said:

Yes. They need to develop and get better in areas where there is room for growth. In Allen's case, that would be accuracy and efficiency. I'm not sure why this concept is so difficult for you to comprehend.

I don't really disagree with any of this as I'm more bullish on Allen than I've ever been. His strengths are really something else and even better than advertised. The TD to Jones in the back of the endzone was a wakeup call to anyone not wiling to at least give him a chance.

 

In order to take that next step, he's going to need to develop some touch on the short and intermediate passes. Perhaps that will come with repetition and confidence.

326-525 57.6% 3739yds 26tds 28ints

Who is this

[GoBills808]

38 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

What numbers would you like to use to measure his progress as a passer and how much time do you think is enough to see results?

The issue is you can select a given set of statistics to make any argument you like. You did it to equate Allen to Tebow and Boller of all people with comp% as your proxy for 'accuracy'. I used YPA and TD/INT% to facetiously compare Mahomes and Foles...equally ridiculous. The overall point is your argument lacks context and nuance. It's so simplistic as to render itelf meaningless. 

[PrimeTime101]

14 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

.....the argument that The difference between Allen being a 60% thrower and a 55% thrower is 1.5 passes completed if he attempts 30 passes.  

 

This is is mathematically correct but you can apply this to every QB.  Somehow others manage to consistently complete at a higher pct despite also having to throw a ball away, have the receiver drop the pass etc.  

 

quarterbacks not not named Josh Allen have higher completion pct with the same group.

 

my point remains.  Allen is an incredible prospect with lots of gifts and talent and he has a very substantial set of data to look at that suggests he isn’t accurate and that it is far from a given he ever will be.  

 

My point isn’t that I think Allen is awful or that  I think he can’t improve or that given better supporting cast improvement can’t happen.

 

It is not a given.  Another example of a guy with a great arm, gifts etc was Kyle Boler.  A guy coaches thought wasn’t accurate due to supporting cast at college and who they could coach up and surround with talent and fix him.  There are a lot of Kyle Bolers.  Accuracy, efficiency whatever you want to call it... but it is HARD to teach.  Making quick reads, and then the proper pass don’t tend to be things that can be improved much of at all by coaching or better players around.

 

ive said in many other threads here that given his incredible natural gifts and his football upbringing he is worthwhile.  I can buy the argument that he was a farm kid that never was coached up as a kid, as a high school player or in college....

 

its not a given and if Allen does develop into a legit franchise QB he will have beaten long odds and the Bills leadership will deserve to be praised as geniuses.  

So Tebow to Kyle Bolers?

 

LOL just LOL

[oldmanfan]

13 hours ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

I’m giving those guys as examples of prospects who “just needed to be more accurate”.   Allen is an incredible prospect.  More gifted than those guys.  The comparison is that NFL people and fans thought it was just a matter of more time more reps and more coaching and the accuracy, passing efficiency, was going to happen, like a forgone conclusion.

 

most of the fans on this board speak of Allen exactly this same way.  More time more reps and better supporting cast has been the failing formula to improve accuracy for decades.  Many here seem to think success is right around the corner.  

You do not understand the concept of accuracy.  You continue to conflate completion percentage as some magical measure and ignore the multitude of variables that can affect it.  

[Zerovoltz]

2 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

You do not understand the concept of accuracy.  You continue to conflate completion percentage as some magical measure and ignore the multitude of variables that can affect it.  

 

These same variables apply to every QB do they not?  If we can’t apply any measurable metrics to a qb then what can we apply?

[oldmanfan]

21 minutes ago, Zerovotlz said:

 

These same variables apply to every QB do they not?  If we can’t apply any measurable metrics to a qb then what can we apply?

Applying them does not mean anything.  You obsess on completion percentage.  Statisticians would tell you that you would need to use multivariate analysis to truly understand if the 1 or 2 pass completion difference that constitutes a difference between 55 and 60% means squat.

 

Let's list just a few of the variables:

 

Types of passes thrown i.e. Short dump offs vs. down the field

Quality of receiving corps

Quality of O line (do you have to throw more balls away due to poor protection)

QB experience (yes experience counts)

Playing conditions (effect of more windy conditions vs. a dome let's say)

Defensive schemes and personnel you play against

 

And so on.  And those same variables do NOT apply to every QB.  Well, in a sense they do.   But they are not equal.  They are, guess what, variable.  And as such have to be accounted for in any proper comparison.

 

Accuracy is being consistently around your target, and I have explained that many confuse it with precision.  The other thing you have to understand here is that you have no idea what in in the QBs mind when he throws a ball.  Take the missed TD/apparent misread with Zay.  That was added to the incompletion, but if it was expecting Jones to be at point X when Jones thought point Y, has nothing to do with accuracy.  In fact the pass was very accurate; Allen put it right where he thought Jones was supposed to be.  So there's your one pass a game that makes your magical difference.  And it means nothing.

 

So just stop with this stuff.  Allen is a young guy, a rookie QB.  He has to get better at a lot of things like reading defenses, staying in the pocket, dumping off when indicated, etc.  But let's just stop regurgitating this completion percentage/accuracy thing.  

[Hapless Bills Fan]

On 12/3/2018 at 11:24 PM, Kelly the Dog said:

Name all the short and intermediate passes that were obviously inaccurate. I know there were some but not that many. Most of his incompletions were significantly downfield. He threw a few bad intermediate passes early, no question. But no more than the average game of QBs I'm sure you would consider consisting accurate.

 

Allen had a very good game today with the short and intermediate stuff - I posted an assessment from Cover1 earlier.  There is no question this is an area of his game he is working hard at, and I see improvement relative to Week 1.

 

But there are still shots he won't take, that he has available to him.  I also posted a screenshot of one of Allen's successful runs - a 17 yd scramble with a textbook slide at the end, on 3rd and 3 in the 4th qtr.  As Allen approaches the LOS with room to pause and throw, we see he has McCoy at the 31, wide open and holding out his hand.  It appears that Allen is looking in that direction, but Allen doesn't pull the trigger.  I think I saw 3-4 of those.

 

The only reason I can think of for not taking some of those shots, is that he lacks complete faith in his ability to hit them.

 

JMO