(hypothetical) Alabama vs. Bills spread

[Thurman#1]

2 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The 2012 team has nothing to do with this group. The conversation and spread from Vegas was about THIS Alabama team. I’m not sure why anyone inserts any other program into the conversation? We are all aware that this Alabama team is an outlier. This is a culmination of a lot of hits AND an elite QB. They are different from their predecessors. 

 

It’s also a conservative estimate based on the most recent recruiting cycles. You are looking at ages and not pedigree. Jerry Jeudy is a true sophomore and arguably the best receiver in the country. 

 

I was just responding to your point on nutrition, “Bama guys are mostly on meal plans and studying while NFL players are eating at the facility Andy focusing on nothing but football.” I guess the point here is if you think an Alabama Football player has ANYTHING to worry about but Alabama Football, we disagree. It is certainly different at other programs. Yes, Alabama has a respectable graduation rate but 100% of their football needs come before anything else. If there were ever an academic issue that jeopardized the football program, someone would step in and make it go away. When you couple that with the lack of family, media and marketing commitments that pros have the “free time” isn’t that different.

 

Football is all that matters in that state AND to the donors. That’s an underrated part of this. The donors hold the school hostage if they don’t like the direction of the football team. As a quick anecdotal side story I have a good friend that works in the athletic department at Auburn. The largest donor at Auburn has a $172M (think is the number) gift to Auburn. It is contingent on $38M of it being used to buy out Gus Malzahn. If Malzahn isn’t bought out this year, Auburn won’t get any of it.

 

We are certainly in agreement about the age. It sounds like we are also reaching an agreement that the ingest challenge for Alabama will be the complexities. The mental side is the largest gap between pros and even Alabama. We just differ on how much the physical skills would offset it. It’s no problem though. This conversation has been interesting because 2 people can see the same things differently. It’s been an interesting conversation.

 

 

 

That's an interesting story about Auburn and the donor. Nuts. Completely nuts, but that's the culture down there.

 

"ingest challenge"? Do you mean biggest challenge? Autocorrect?

 

The 2012 team has plenty to do with this group. Same coach. Same facilities. They won a national championship, which this group has yet to do. They run in Saban's system and both groups beat a few very difficult opponents they also both played a bunch of patsies like The Citadel. Same state, same nuts atmosphere. They had four guys go in the first and five in the top 35 picks in the 2012 draft. They have a ton in common.

 

You're not being conservative. When you are looking at an extremely complex system with a track record of ten or twelve years and you're trying to look three years into an unknowable future with millions of possible variables ... guessing that the future will be significantly higher than the highest past result isn't being conservative. It's sticking your neck out. 

 

And no, Jerry Jeudy isn't the best receiver in the country. That would be Antonio Brown, probably. Or maybe Julio Jones or Adam Thielen or Michael Thomas. A few other guys might be in the discussion, but not Jerry Jeudy. After Jeudy becomes eligible and gets drafted and spends months of OTAs and full-time study rather than working around the classwork which is required of him now and goes through training camp he might become a very fine receiver. It probably won't happen in his first game, and certainly wouldn't if his first game happened, say, sometime in the next few weeks and his QB was dealing with a pro DL like ours while being protected by guys like he has in front of him now, OLs with a lot of potential and no knowledge of the pro game.

 

And while there is a limited "make the problem go away" factor, the NCAA has a say in this. Big schools have had NCAA problems before. And programs that seemed all-powerful (Miami in the eighties and very early 90s and then again in the early noughties) were brought down to earth. Unpredictable stuff happens. Injuries happen. Drug scandals happen. Crimes happen. Sexual accusations happen. Stuff happens.

 

 

 

 

Edited November 30, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Bill from NYC]

30 minutes ago, row_33 said:

how is this Bama team any different in this era?

 

they didn't play a decent OOC opponent the entire season?

 

that helps the stats

 

just another year of football

 

2 questions if I may......

A) Exactly which OOC teams would you like them to play?

B) Which powerful OOC teams do you think want to play Alabama?

If the answer to these questions includes UCF, I might even jump on your bandwagon.

 

At least Bama faces SOME good teams. Compare that to Clemson if you will and I'm sorry to whoever I offend but Notre Dame as well.

[Dopey]

Half time show on FOX between Utah and Washington and the crew metions the Bulls by asking which is the better team in Buffalo, the Bulls or Bills. Made me think of this thread.

Bulls, of course.

Edited December 1, 2018 by Dopey

[BringBackOrton]

LOOOOOOOOL

 

Bama can't get a lead on Georgia.  But they'd hang with the Bills.  Sure.

[BB@Shooter]

On 11/30/2018 at 1:57 AM, #34fan said:

Bills By 28.... Coaching would be a huge factor in this contest, and sorry, but Bama would have an advantage there... I'd expect Bama's defense to shock the skeptics with their ability to disrupt Allen's process, and keep him off-base... -Bama loses, but covers by half a point.

I do believe Alabama's coach had a team in the NFL called the Miami Dolphins. What happened to his genius coaching?  Game over. If he couldn't do it with pro athletes, what makes you think he could do it with college players?

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, BB@Shooter said:

I do believe Alabama's coach had a team in the NFL called the Miami Dolphins. What happened to his genius coaching?  Game over. If he couldn't do it with pro athletes, what makes you think he could do it with college players?

He was 9-7 with trash talent in year one. If he picked Brees instead of Culpepper he’d still be coaching.

[BringBackOrton]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He was 9-7 with trash talent in year one. If he picked Brees instead of Culpepper he’d still be coaching.

Could the Bills cover -28 against Georgia in the SEC Championship?

[#34fan]

9 minutes ago, BB@Shooter said:

I do believe Alabama's coach had a team in the NFL called the Miami Dolphins. What happened to his genius coaching?  Game over. If he couldn't do it with pro athletes, what makes you think he could do it with college players?

 

Because he's been killing it with college players ever since he's got to Tuscaloosa... Plus, he's got a killer supporting staff... Bills 42 Bama 14... Back-door 4th

 

quarter TD kills the spread.

Edited December 1, 2018 by #34fan

[Augie]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He was 9-7 with trash talent in year one. If he picked Brees instead of Culpepper he’d still be coaching.

 

...and I’d still be weeping! To ba fair, it was the doctors and not Saban, right? Could you imagine Brees AND Brady twice a year? Welcome to the fetal position.....

[BringBackOrton]

Could Tua throw less than 4 picks in the red zone against the Bills if the spread was +28?

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, BringBackOrton said:

Could Tua throw less than 4 picks in the red zone against the Bills if the spread was +28?

 

I wonder how many pick sixes our secondary would have in Tua's first ever game against a pro defense with little preparation. That alone might cover the spread.

[KennyDavisEyes]

16 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I wonder how many pick sixes our secondary would have in Tua's first ever game against a pro defense with little preparation. That alone might cover the spread.

 

Probably not that many vs. Tua because Jerry Hughes would probably snap his neck in the first few possessions.

 

But yeah - probably a lot vs. their backups.

[mannc]

47 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I wonder how many pick sixes our secondary would have in Tua's first ever game against a pro defense with little preparation. That alone might cover the spread.

So one bad game and now he sucks?

[GoBills808]

14 minutes ago, mannc said:

So one bad game and now he sucks?

No, the point as always is college football teams would get absolutely rocked versus pros. 

[BringBackOrton]

15 minutes ago, mannc said:

So one bad game and now he sucks?

One bad game, against woah, the second best SEC team, which isn’t even comparable to the worst NFL team, which means that the worst NFL team would embarrass him.

[HappyDays]

18 minutes ago, mannc said:

So one bad game and now he sucks?

 

If he stepped into an NFL game tomorrow yes he would suck. He would be so physically and mentally unprepared it would be like watching a parody of a football game. Especially with his college pass protection and college receivers. The turnover margin would be insane. I honestly don't think our offense would need to gain more than 200 total yards to win the game by 30.

Edited December 2, 2018 by HappyDays

[mannc]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

No, the point as always is college football teams would get absolutely rocked versus pros. 

And today does nothing to prove that.  Georgia is a really good team and Alabama didn’t play great. So what?

1 minute ago, BringBackOrton said:

One bad game, against woah, the second best SEC team, which isn’t even comparable to the worst NFL team, which means that the worst NFL team would embarrass him.

It means no such thing.  He had a bad game against a very good team.  It was one game.  Josh Allen had a horrible game against Green Bay, a mediocre NFL defense.  Does that mean he sucks?  Of course not.

[78thealltimegreat]

18 minutes ago, mannc said:

So one bad game and now he sucks?

 

Just now, mannc said:

And today does nothing to prove that.  Georgia is a really good team and Alabama didn’t play great. So what?

Look give it up Georgia beat up Tua....Jerry Hughes would end his career 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

And today does nothing to prove that.  Georgia is a really good team and Alabama didn’t play great. So what?

So what is they’re college athletes. They struggle against other college athletes. The professional ones would run them out on stretchers, and that’s  not hyperbole. I firmly believe a college team would suffer multiple major injuries if they were to play against an NFL team.

[mannc]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

If he stepped into an NFL game tomorrow yes he would suck. He would be so physically and mentally unprepared it would be like watching a parody of a football game. Especially with his college pass protection and college receivers. The turnover margin would be insane. I honestly don't think our offense would need to gain more than 300 total yards to win the game by 30.

Jeudy and Waddle might  both start for the Bills.  And Waddle is a true freshman.

Just now, GoBills808 said:

So what is they’re college athletes. They struggle against other college athletes. The professional ones would run them out on stretchers, and that’s  not hyperbole. I firmly believe a college team would suffer multiple major injuries if they were to play against an NFL team.

Ask guys in the NFL who’ve played for and against Alabama.  They completely disagree.  

[GoBills808]

On 11/29/2018 at 8:45 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

You think Georgia will cover in the conference championship game? 

 

I severely doubt it. 

 

On 11/29/2018 at 8:48 AM, GoBills808 said:

Sounds like a wager is in order then!

 

 

[GunnerBill]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

 

 

 

 

Haha. Georgia played well. Was closer than I'd have estimated. Very good game.

[DisplacedBillsFan]

25 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

If he stepped into an NFL game tomorrow

I don't think he'll be stepping anywhere tomorrow.

[WhickedWilliams]

Cmon bama wouldn’t even score 4 pts

[Kirby Jackson]

So Alabama beat, arguably, the 2nd best team in the country with their backup QB and we are trashing them? 

[mannc]

5 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

So Alabama beat, arguably, the 2nd best team in the country with their backup QB and we are trashing them? 

But they only scored 35 points.  Therefore, Jerry Hughes would injure their players.  

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, mannc said:

But they only scored 35 points.  Therefore, Jerry Hughes would injure their players.  

So many people that haven’t even seen them play until today!! It’s tough to have a strong opinion without ever actually watching. Whatever though, I think that the points have been made in both sides. I think it’s 20, some that I respect (like Thurm) think it’s 40. We will never know. All that we know is a professional thinks it’s 28.5. 

[atlbillsfan1975]

Kirby stop. Bama would not cover against the Bill or any NFL team. And UGA is a good team. Bama doesn’t win the NC. 

[HappyDays]

43 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

So Alabama beat, arguably, the 2nd best team in the country with their backup QB and we are trashing them? 

 

They didn't beat the 2nd best team in the  country. They beat the 2nd best college team in the country, by a TD. The Bills have beat 2 other NFL teams this year by more than 20 points. A college offense put up 28 points against Alabama today. Our offense could put up twice that easily. Or is the argument now that Georgia's offense is better than ours?

 

I don't even necessarily disagree with the 28 point spread, the oddsmaker has to take into account that the Bills would eventually stop trying. He wasn't asked what the spread would be if we gave it our all for 60 minutes. We are unquestionably more than 28 points better than Alabama in a full game.

Edited December 2, 2018 by HappyDays

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

They didn't beat the 2nd best team in the  country. They beat the 2nd best college team in the country, by a TD. The Bills have beat 2 other NFL teams this year by more than 20 points. A college offense put up 28 points against Alabama today. Our offense could put up twice that easily. Or is the argument now that Georgia's offense is better than ours?

 

I don't even necessarily disagree with the 28 point spread, the oddsmaker has to take into account that the Bills would eventually stop trying. He wasn't asked what the spread would be if we gave it our all for 60 minutes. We are unquestionably more than 28 points better than Alabama in a full game.

We disagree. I have it at 20. We will never know but certainly we can’t say something will “definitely” happen. They will never play. We all have our opinions by no one is right or wrong. 

[RiotAct]

they suxx0r

[BringBackOrton]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

We disagree. I have it at 20. We will never know but certainly we can’t say something will “definitely” happen. They will never play. We all have our opinions by no one is right or wrong. 

Except yours. Yours is definitely wrong.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, mannc said:

So one bad game and now he sucks?

 

Doesnt suck in college, but all rookie QBs suck when they get to the NFL at first.  Tua would be facing a top 3 NFL defense without ever even going through an OTA, NFL practice, preseason game, etc.  he will be more raw than even a rookie QB starting week 1.

 

how is this escaping so many people?  Rookies do not come in and dominate the NFL like they dominate in college in their first game.  And even that normal first game comes after 6 months of learning the NFL game in offseason, practice, camps, preseason.  

 

Its baffling to me that people think a bunch of college kids, some destined for NFL this year, many not ready for the NFL yet, and others that will never even make the NFL will somehow beat an NFL team.  Bama should have lost today, and gave up 28 to another college team.  We’d score 40 to 50 easy and probably shut them out or hold them to single digits.  

Edited December 2, 2018 by Alphadawg7

[Billsfanatic8989]

There needs to be a " Pros vs Colleges" Bowl game the week after the NFL regular season ends. Best college team (Bama) vs the worst NFL team (Would be us, Oakland, or Arizona this season). The worst NFL team would embarrass Bama. Half their team would get injured. I doubt Bama gets more than five first downs in the game.

[HappyDays]

18 minutes ago, Billsfanatic8989 said:

There needs to be a " Pros vs Colleges" Bowl game the week after the NFL regular season ends. Best college team (Bama) vs the worst NFL team (Would be us, Oakland, or Arizona this season). The worst NFL team would embarrass Bama. Half their team would get injured. I doubt Bama gets more than five first downs in the game.

 

What's funny is no college team would agree to this because they know they would face numerous serious injuries. I don't care if you have the best college conditioning program in the world. The first hit from an NFL veteran would be a real shock. And the second hit would be even worse.

[Dopey]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

So Alabama beat, arguably, the 2nd best team in the country with their backup QB and we are trashing them? 

Trashing them?!  I don't think anyone is saying they suck. They just would get there ***** handed to them against the Bills.  When you say 2nd best team, you do mean 2nd best college team, right? Bama has 59 players that are either true freshman, rs freshman, or sophomore. That's around 19 to 20 yrs old max. Playing against grown men?! We wipe the floor with them. I could take it a step further and say you're trashing the Bills by saying Bama would keep it under at 20. JMO though.

[BB@Shooter]

6 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He was 9-7 with trash talent in year one. If he picked Brees instead of Culpepper he’d still be coaching.

I do love all the what if people. Coulda, shoulda, blah ,blah, blah. If my uncle was a woman he would have been my aunt. Hypothetical crap like that does nothing for me. It is like saying if so and so would have caught that ball like he should have , we would have won the game.  In high school track I would always beat this same kid in the 100 yard dash. And every time after the race he would say " I almost beat you". I would just smile and rub the 1st place medal between my fingers as I walked away. If the guy would have trained harder instead of being satisfied with coming in second ,he wouldn't have to settle. He is probably still walking around in life telling himself "what if " scenarios. I just chuckle when people come on here with their what if posts.

5 hours ago, mannc said:

Jeudy and Waddle might  both start for the Bills.  And Waddle is a true freshman.

Ask guys in the NFL who’ve played for and against Alabama.  They completely disagree.  

Please show one quote where NFL players completely disagree. And not one that is a reporter or tv analyst. They get paid to stir things up and get reviews. Just find one NFL player.

[BB@Shooter]

6 hours ago, #34fan said:

 

Because he's been killing it with college players ever since he's got to Tuscaloosa... Plus, he's got a killer supporting staff... Bills 42 Bama 14... Back-door 4th

 

quarter TD kills the spread.

He couldn't kill it with NFL players, but he could with college players? You are killing me Smalls.

[mannc]

1 hour ago, BB@Shooter said:

 

Please show one quote where NFL players completely disagree. And not one that is a reporter or tv analyst. They get paid to stir things up and get reviews. Just find one NFL player.

Read the article posted upthread.