Allen not showing progress

[Success]

The anti-Allen crowd really has a proclivity for hyperbole.

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I wouldn’t even be upset if this kid was making dumb decisions and going through a learning curve in the nfl. I wouldn’t mind if the reason our offense was struggling was because of rookie mistakes. This kid sucks at throwing the ball near the players on his own team. You aren’t going to learn that. He is not good at passing footballs. What are we learning? It’s just insane to me that people think this has been anything except terrible. Allen should have been redshirted for the entire season. The guy is nowhere near ready to play mentally and physically he has shown nothing to be excited about. People just want him to be good so they ignore what’s right infront of their eyes...the kid sucks right now. It really is that simple.

 

Totally agree.

 

We're averaging 123 yards passing per game because our QB is completely lost out there.

 

He's a big kid with a canon arm who has no idea how to play QB in a structured system. He's not learning anything on the field and appears to be developing bad habits in the pocket. He's running when there's no pressure and doesn't appear to make any effort in going through his reads. All he's doing is looking for his #1 read, and if it's not there he's immediately looking to run.

[OldTimer1960]

2 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I wouldn’t even be upset if this kid was making dumb decisions and going through a learning curve in the nfl. I wouldn’t mind if the reason our offense was struggling was because of rookie mistakes. This kid sucks at throwing the ball near the players on his own team. You aren’t going to learn that. He is not good at passing footballs. What are we learning? It’s just insane to me that people think this has been anything except terrible. Allen should have been redshirted for the entire season. The guy is nowhere near ready to play mentally and physically he has shown nothing to be excited about. People just want him to be good so they ignore what’s right infront of their eyes...the kid sucks right now. It really is that simple.

What are you watching?  I saw maybe 1 or 2 inaccurate passes today.  Now, if you want to say he isn’t seeing the field, ok fine.  The “he is inaccurate” mantra is off in my opinion.

[DisplacedBillsFan]

Even if he starts to put it together, you still take another QB in the draft next year. I vote David Blough from Purdue.

[jrober38]

1 minute ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Statistics without context are garbage.  The basis of statistics is having a sound sample of data.   Mixing data from incomparable data sets is never right.

 

The models provided plenty of context, like strength of opponent, strength of his supporting cast, ball placement, etc. 

 

All of the advanced analytic models gave Allen hardly any chance of being successful. 

[TheElectricCompany]

Just now, OldTimer1960 said:

Statistics without context are garbage.  The basis of statistics is having a sound sample of data.   Mixing data from incomparable data sets is never right.

 

There have been many attempts to explain away Josh Allen's poor NCAA stats. They all fall short.

There is a statistical reason to take a guy like Baker #1, or to pick someone like Russel Wilson late, but there was never a statistical reason to pick Josh. 

He was always a "tools" guy. 

[Matt_In_NH]

1 minute ago, Success said:

The anti-Allen crowd really has a proclivity for hyperbole.

 

I am sure there are some but I dont think there are many in the anti-Allen crowd.  I do see a lot of people commenting on what they see which is fair if you ask me.

[OldTimer1960]

Just now, jrober38 said:

 

The models provided plenty of context, like strength of opponent, strength of his supporting cast, ball placement, etc. 

 

All of the advanced analytic models gave Allen hardly any chance of being successful. 

Never mind.  It isn’t baseball where a pitcher has no pressure.

[jrober38]

2 minutes ago, cgg716 said:

30 years on this planet. I’ve seen 8 all time great transcendent QB

Aikman

Young

Favre

Roelisthberger

Manning

Brady

Brees

Rodgers

 

Half those guys struggled plenty around poor teams early, judgements off of that are why Brees became a Saint. You need time and teamattes, Wait until Allen gets those things 

 

Reality is that over the past 20 years over 50% of QBs picked in round 1 have been busts, and when you take away the elite prospects who went #1 overall, that number spikes to over 70%. 

 

It's really hard to find a good QB. 

[Success]

1 minute ago, jrober38 said:

 

The models provided plenty of context, like strength of opponent, strength of his supporting cast, ball placement, etc. 

 

All of the advanced analytic models gave Allen hardly any chance of being successful. 

Any links?

[Agent 91]

3 hours ago, GimmeSomeProcess said:

Can we please ban anyone who states we need to start Anderson. He’s worse than Allen, so

let the kid develop 

Maybe he meant while Allen is injured? I hope

[Success]

1 minute ago, mattynh said:

 

I am sure there are some but I dont think there are many in the anti-Allen crowd.  I do see a lot of people commenting on what they see which is fair if you ask me.

It’s not really fair if it’s fabricated.

[GimmeSomeProcess]

3 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

What are you watching?  I saw maybe 1 or 2 inaccurate passes today.  Now, if you want to say he isn’t seeing the field, ok fine.  The “he is inaccurate” mantra is off in my opinion.

Agree on the accuracy and the only way for him to speed up

progressions is by seeing more and more. 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

2 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

What are you watching?  I saw maybe 1 or 2 inaccurate passes today.  Now, if you want to say he isn’t seeing the field, ok fine.  The “he is inaccurate” mantra is off in my opinion.

I don’t think it even begins to describe it. The first pass of the day was as bad of a ball as you can see thrown. Even the catches are balls where guys have to pick them off the turf. There are less good throws then bad every single game with Allen. He puts touch on balls that don’t need touch and lasers balls that are within 5 yds. The kid hasn’t even been inbounds on a deep ball. His apparent speciality. We are one of the worst passing offenses I have ever seen. 3 times this year Allen’s yards per carry has been higher then his ypa. What am I watching? The game. How can anyone not see this? He is the tall kid, #17. The one throwing balls off the ground and behind people.

[Roundybout]

Just now, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I don’t think it even begins to describe it. The first pass of the day was as bad of a ball as you can see thrown. Even the catches are balls where guys have to pick them off the turf. There are less good throws then bad every single game with Allen. He puts touch on balls that don’t need touch and lasers balls that are within 5 yds. The kid hasn’t even been inbounds on a deep ball. His apparent speciality. We are one of the worst passing offenses I have ever seen. 3 times this year Allen’s yards per carry has been higher then his ypa. What am I watching? The game. How can anyone not see this? He is the tall kid, #17. The one throwing balls off the ground and behind people.

 

You're a good poster, but damn if you don't get on a tear. You're waaaaaay exaggerating things. He had one truly bad pass today. That's an improvement there. He needs to be better, but he isn't as bad as you think he is. 

[Kelly the Dog]

9 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I wouldn’t even be upset if this kid was making dumb decisions and going through a learning curve in the nfl. I wouldn’t mind if the reason our offense was struggling was because of rookie mistakes. This kid sucks at throwing the ball near the players on his own team. You aren’t going to learn that. He is not good at passing footballs. What are we learning? It’s just insane to me that people think this has been anything except terrible. Allen should have been redshirted for the entire season. The guy is nowhere near ready to play mentally and physically he has shown nothing to be excited about. People just want him to be good so they ignore what’s right infront of their eyes...the kid sucks right now. It really is that simple.

I'm just going off on top of my head. He was 10-17 or maybe 19? He threw one horrible pass to Clay and two bullets right to Clay. He threw two long passes to Benjamin right on the money one of which was called back. He threw a 10-15 yard pass to Zay that was dropped. He threw a nice swing pass to Shady on the run and and a WR screen on the money. He threw a bomb to Benjamin that was double covered and smart to be too long. He rolled out and threw a tremendously accurate pass against the grain to Shady. He threw a short roll out that wasn't great but in range and caught by Clay on the sidelines. He threw a ball away on the sidelines toward KB that had no chance because he wasn't open at all. Where are all these wildly inaccurate passes outside of the first play?

[CincyBillsFan]

Some random thoughts on Allen as I read this thread:

 

*  Didn't Arizona make a big push to move up and take Allen over Rosen? 

 

*  The notion that Allen should have dropped into the 3rd or 4th round seems crazy to me. 

 

*  The Bills had a shot at two of the top 4 QB's unless you think we should have moved up ahead of the Jets to grab Darnold (which would have cost us a ton).  And I've yet to see anything that makes me think Rosen would have been a better pick then Allen.  Sure Rosen is ahead of Allen but his upside is way below Allen's.

 

*  Like others have said, it would have been ideal for Allen to sit at least half the season.  But that's water under the bridge now.  Allen became the starter in week 2 and must now take his lumps and remain the starter for better or worse.  To bench him for ANY reason other then injury would set his development back. 

 

*  I keep hearing folks talk about all these other QB's throwing for big yardage while the Bills & Allen struggle to top 100 yards.  And I find this frustrating to.  But what I see in these other games are RB's, TE's and WR's getting open all over the field.  And I don't need a 360 degree review of every pass play to see how open they are.  It's right there on my sort of big screen TV and you just don't see that when watching a Bills game.  Sure, Allen owns some of this but with the exception of Shady how many of our skill players would see the field on almost any other NFL team?  

 

 

[jrober38]

6 minutes ago, Success said:

Any links?

 

QBASE has a very high rate of predicting failure for guys like Allen. Guys with negative scores like him simply are never successful. 

 

Contextualized Quarterbacking was another good one. Super detailed, and took into account each pass a QB threw and where it was placed to analyze accuracy among other things.

 

There were others but I'll have to look around. 

[Agent 91]

2 hours ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Allen was better than Watson today. Watson has Hopkins and Fuller, was worse against the rush, threw two horrible INTs, fumbled twice, was sacked six times, didn't feel the rush worse than Josh, and his only TD was a fabulous catch. 

I have to disagree. I take into account possibly a worse o line against a better pass rush. I honestly think we bring the heat better than they do. I didnt think he was worse against the rush either. Neither had their best day but I did think he was decent today

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

This is going to be EJ all over again where people are just going to “benefit of the doubt” the guy on every single thing. Keep bringing up how Peyton Manning was rough in his rookie year....Well plenty of bad QBs were bad in year 1 too. Not every lost qb is going to turn into Aikman and Manning. It’s week 6. Make a few throws here at some point to give people reasons to think it can be better. I’m all for hoping it turns around but at some point I need to see some throws. I have seen plenty of throws to worry about. Let’s see a few good ones 

[BananaB]

33 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

 

For every guy like Goff who got significantly better after year 1, there are at least 5 guys who didn't get better and went on to be complete busts. 

 

Allen might be Goff, or he might be EJ Manuel, Kyle Boller, Akili Smith, Joey Harrington, Patrick Ramsey, JP Losman, Josh Freeman, Paxton Lynch, Blaine Gabbert, Brandon Weeden, Christian Ponder, Johnny Manziel, Jake Locker, Christian Hackenberg, Geno Smith, Jimmy Clausen, Brian Brohm, etc, etc, etc. 

 

Most QBs don't work out. The vast majority of QBs who were terrible year 1 don't go on to be successful franchise players. 

 

Well then sit the !@#$ back and watch and see what happens. 

[Matt_In_NH]

12 minutes ago, OldTimer1960 said:

 What are you watching?  I saw maybe 1 or 2 inaccurate passes today.  Now, if you want to say he isn’t seeing the field, ok fine.  The “he is inaccurate” mantra is off in my opinion.

That is it huh, 1 or 2?  I dont think anyone would argue the first play of the game was really bad.  After that there was maybe one more inaccurate pass but also maybe no others that were inaccurate?  Come on

Edited October 15, 2018 by mattynh

[Kelly the Dog]

1 minute ago, Agent 91 said:

I have to disagree. I take into account possibly a worse o line against a better pass rush. I honestly think we bring the heat better than they do. I didnt think he was worse against the rush either. Neither had their best day but I did think he was decent today

Watson threw two INT and one of them was a HORRIBLE pass. He fumbled at least twice. He was sacked six times, showing terrible awareness. The one TD he threw was much more of a great catch than anything else. He threw a few nice passes but not any more than Josh. 

[Success]

3 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

This is going to be EJ all over again where people are just going to “benefit of the doubt” the guy on every single thing. Keep bringing up how Peyton Manning was rough in his rookie year....Well plenty of bad QBs were bad in year 1 too. Not every lost qb is going to turn into Aikman and Manning. It’s week 6. Make a few throws here at some point to give people reasons to think it can be better. I’m all for hoping it turns around but at some point I need to see some throws. I have seen plenty of throws to worry about. Let’s see a few good ones 

You didn’t see a few really good throws today?

[Kelly the Dog]

2 minutes ago, mattynh said:

That is it huh, 1 or 2?  I dont think anyone would argue the first play of the game was really bad.  After that there was maybe one more inaccurate pass but also maybe no others that were inaccurate?  Come on

I don't get it either. 

[Warcodered]

2 minutes ago, mattynh said:

That is it huh, 1 or 2?  I dont think anyone would argue the first play of the game was really bad.  After that there was maybe one more inaccurate pass but also maybe no others that were inaccurate?  Come on

Seriously the only two I could think of were that first one and the long one to Benjamin that I'm not sure wasn't intentional.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

2 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

I'm just going off on top of my head. He was 10-17 or maybe 19? He threw one horrible pass to Clay and two bullets right to Clay. He threw two long passes to Benjamin right on the money one of which was called back. He threw a 10-15 yard pass to Zay that was dropped. He threw a nice swing pass to Shady on the run and and a WR screen on the money. He threw a bomb to Benjamin that was double covered and smart to be too long. He rolled out and threw a tremendously accurate pass against the grain to Shady. He threw a short roll out that wasn't great but in range and caught by Clay on the sidelines. He threw a ball away on the sidelines toward KB that had no chance because he wasn't open at all. Where are all these wildly inaccurate passes outside of the first play?

I’m not in a rational mindset to go through this whole thing but the long pass across the field to Shady was a stupid pass and a terrible decision. We don’t score points, we don’t put drives together, we don’t convert 3rd Downs, all his best plays are runs and our receivers are invisible. I mean I don’t know how people watch these games and think this isn’t an issue. I hope the kid turns out to be John Elway but my god..he looks more like Paxton Lynch. The kid is not ready to play. Let him sharpen his passing skills and gain some comprehension of professional passing concepts and try it when he’s mature. I’m not blaming Allen. It’s not his fault. He shouldn’t be out there. That’s on the coach and GM.

[Luka]

I knew this would happen. We'd draft a guy high and everyone expects him to be the best QB in the league from day one and are ready to move on after 4 games. This fanbase is what is really wrong with the Buffalo Bills. New Era Field is the biggest bar in Buffalo, people aren't loyal to the team they're loyal to the booze.

[Agent 91]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

 

He is just so set up for failure it isnt even funny

I was pissed because of just this. He is not in a good situation with a concerted wr coach and a porous o line. What does he have going in his favor. We won last week squarely on 3 things. great run game great defense... bad titans. 

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

1 minute ago, Success said:

You didn’t see a few really good throws today?

He had 82 yards passing through 3 quarters. Really good throws? Which ones were they? The one on the actual injury was good. That was something that I’d like to see more of.

[Nostradumbass]

5 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

This is going to be EJ all over again where people are just going to “benefit of the doubt” the guy on every single thing. Keep bringing up how Peyton Manning was rough in his rookie year....Well plenty of bad QBs were bad in year 1 too. Not every lost qb is going to turn into Aikman and Manning. It’s week 6. Make a few throws here at some point to give people reasons to think it can be better. I’m all for hoping it turns around but at some point I need to see some throws. I have seen plenty of throws to worry about. Let’s see a few good ones 

I am not an Allen hater but EJ tracked better through his first 5 games 

[Agent 91]

1 hour ago, PolishPrince said:

Judging by your profile picture, I can't take your evaluation seriously

Fair enough... thanks for posting... Big "P"

[Success]

Just now, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

He had 82 yards passing through 3 quarters. Really good throws? Which ones were they? The one on the actual injury was good. That was something that I’d like to see more of.

He had two of those to KB.  And a few others.

 

Not a huge sample, but try not to exaggerate.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Just now, Nostradumbass said:

I am not an Allen hater but EJ tracked better through his first 5 games 

I’m not an Allen hater either. I didn’t want him but throughout the preseason and especially the Vikings game..I really started to like him. He just isn’t good right now. I want him to sit out until he is ready. He’s going to get happy feet and feel pressure that isn’t there. That’s the kind of stuff you don’t come back from. I like him and I’m not giving up on him for life. I just don’t want him to play now.

[Augie]

He’s not supposed to have shown progress at this point. He should be sitting and watching. 

[Agent 91]

6 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Watson threw two INT and one of them was a HORRIBLE pass. He fumbled at least twice. He was sacked six times, showing terrible awareness. The one TD he threw was much more of a great catch than anything else. He threw a few nice passes but not any more than Josh. 

I think they were both bad. I just feel like what we saw was one guy trying to be a qb and the other who just took snaps. I wont attack your assessment, I just feel like they were being asked to do different things. Perhaps Watson just has much better instruction

[John from Riverside]

14 minutes ago, Agent 91 said:

I have to disagree. I take into account possibly a worse o line against a better pass rush. I honestly think we bring the heat better than they do. I didnt think he was worse against the rush either. Neither had their best day but I did think he was decent today

Thought Watson made key plays at key times......but our D still did a excellent job

[BringBackOrton]

10 minutes ago, Kelly the Dog said:

Watson threw two INT and one of them was a HORRIBLE pass. He fumbled at least twice. He was sacked six times, showing terrible awareness. The one TD he threw was much more of a great catch than anything else. He threw a few nice passes but not any more than Josh. 

Watson played like I expected Josh Allen to play after we drafted him.

 

I expected him as a rookie to throw 20 picks. He's been better about ball security than I thought he'd be.

[Augie]

My 4 year old grandson still can’t do calculus. I told my wife to leave him at a rest stop. She might be a better person than I am....

[PolishPrince]

7 minutes ago, Agent 91 said:

Fair enough... thanks for posting... Big "P"

Haha, it was just a joke. I will be honest I dont know what you were originally even talking about. I just saw the profile picture and was feeling snarky - hopefully you didnt take offense to it. If you did, sorry man. 

I like the "Big P" though haha