Trent Dilfer: "I don't think Josh Allen should be playing"

[BuffaloBillies]

4 minutes ago, GG said:

 

they didn't, but we now have about 3 1/2 games of film on Allen, which strongly support Dilfer's point.  The hope was that the Minny game was a turning point for Allen, but he regressed vs GB

 

Looked great for 60 minutes against Vikes (as a 17 pt road underdog, and it could have been even better minus 3 bad WR drops).

Then he (and team) laid that stinky egg vs GB.

I'm very curious to see what Sunday brings. I expect somewhere in-between, which will actually be improvement from the prior week.

[Wayne Arnold]

1 hour ago, BigBuff423 said:

 

No...no, it's not. He and Bean have bought themselves at least two more full seasons...the end of 2019 season is the earliest his seat starts to gain temperature.

 

2018 has been a total shitshow from the very beginning. If things dont get better, it will get very interesting.

 

I think Beane will get a break simply because he’s the GM and will get an opportunity from the Pegulas to hire his own head coach.

[GG]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloBillies said:

 

Looked great for 60 minutes against Vikes (as a 17 pt road underdog, and it could have been even better minus 3 bad WR drops).

Then he (and team) laid that stinky egg vs GB.

I'm very curious to see what Sunday brings. I expect somewhere in-between, which will actually be improvement from the prior week.

 

He looked ok vs Vikings.  The biggest plays came on coverage break downs.  His ball placement was still off. 

 

He's a work in project, and Dilfer is absolutely right that at this pace he's more likely to be ruined than nurtured.   You cannot throw a raw QB out in the field with that supporting cast.  Our only hope is that Allen's mind is solid as a rock to brush off the growing pains.  

 

Did you see the TD that Gordon caught last night?  The Bills don't have anybody on the roster that makes that catch in between 2 DBs.

[BuffaloBillies]

4 minutes ago, GG said:

 

He looked ok vs Vikings.  The biggest plays came on coverage break downs.  His ball placement was still off. 

 

He's a work in project, and Dilfer is absolutely right that at this pace he's more likely to be ruined than nurtured.   You cannot throw a raw QB out in the field with that supporting cast.  Our only hope is that Allen's mind is solid as a rock to brush off the growing pains.  

 

Did you see the TD that Gordon caught last night?  The Bills don't have anybody on the roster that makes that catch in between 2 DBs.

 

Lack of supporting cast is certainly something we can agree on. We're only 4 new OLs and 2 new WRs away from having some semblance of an offense.

[Jay_Fixit]

Without context, he’s not wrong.

[Peter]

McBeane have not done Josh any favors at all.  Indeed, given the huge investment in assets we gave up to get him and the fact that he is raw, it is shocking what they have done (and not done) with this offense.

 

I was not a huge fan of drafting him, but now that we have him and he seems to be such a great kid, I would have liked McBeane to have maximized Josh's opportunity for success or positive development. 

 

I think that McBeane have failed Josh.

 

P.S. They also traded the one guy who knows the playbook and could have stepped in to avoid throwing Josh into the fire with substandard talent around him.

Edited October 5, 2018 by Peter

[Lurker]

I agree with Dilfer.   

 

The sophistication level of NFL defenses is nothing remotely close to what Allen has ever seen before.   While none of the other rookie QBs have faced that degree of sophistication as well, they at least came from larger, more competitive schools/conferences with larger, more talented coaching staffs to help their development.

 

Allen has all the physical tools.   What he needs to learn is how to read defenses.   With a terrible O-line and no WR help, that's a tough environment to do so.   I suspect McBeane knew that going in and didn't plan to throw him into the fire so soon.   Unfortunately, Plan A didn't work out with McCarron and here we are...  

[row_33]

i didn't read all 4 pages but the chat with Dilfer was very good, he said that the NFL used to value size, then speed, but now it's "twinge" or the ability to react to a situation efficiently as it develops.

 

Ryen's podcast is the best to me and I listen with a grain of salt as national scribes try to talk about a team I know too much about.

 

 

[Lurker]

10 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

Apples and oranges.

 

Dilfer coming out of college did not have the potential or the skills that Allen has now. 

 

I wouldn't have started a talentless Trent Dilfer, either. 

 

These kind of posts are the dumbest thing on TSW.    Sports history is littered with good/great coaches and talent evaluators who were meh players...    

 

 

[Peter]

3 minutes ago, Lurker said:

I agree with Dilfer.   

 

The sophistication level of NFL defenses is nothing remotely close to what Allen has ever seen before.   While none of the other rookie QBs have faced that degree of sophistication as well, they at least came from larger, more competitive schools/conferences with larger, more talented coaching staffs to help their development.

 

Allen has all the physical tools.   What he needs to learn is how to read defenses.   With a terrible O-line and no WR help, that's a tough environment to do so.   I suspect McBeane knew that going in and didn't plan to throw him into the fire so soon.   Unfortunately, Plan A didn't work out with McCarron and here we are...  

 

I agree with most of what you state.

 

McBeane, however, doubled down on their mistake by trading the only other guy who knows the playbook and could have been used instead of throwing Josh into the fire.  He also was fairly inexpensive.

 

P.S. The truth is that most QBs would struggle with the offense that McBeane put together.  It was not very smart to then have to play our prized but very raw rookie QB and negatively affect his development as Dilfer has observed.

 

One mistake after another . . . .

[blacklabel]

11 hours ago, Success said:

I’m very torn on this. For starters, we don’t have a choice.

 

The selfish part of me wants to just see him play, now.  I also like the idea that he’ll have a lot of game experience when they can finally surround him with talent, so he’ll be ready and we won’t have to go through the usual growing pains.

 

But he’s really getting beat up out there, and a lot of this isn’t fair to him.

 

This is where I'm at. I can also sense the competitor in Allen, he wants to be out there regardless of the situation. And I agree, the situation isn't very fair to him right now but I also believe this season can be a huge trial by fire with the hope that he can make some progress. If he shows positive signs by the end of the year with this OL and these skill position players, then I think that bodes well for his future and the team's future once they upgrade several offensive positions.

[Dr. Fong]

This is why trading away Mccarron infuriated me. If this is a taking your lumps until there is enough cap room to field a big boy team next year year then why have your QB of the future or there taking shots behind the worst OL in football trying to throw the ball to the worst WR corps in football? It just makes no sense to me. I don’t understand what part of the process this is. Maybe I just don’t see the big picture, who knows?

[Lurker]

9 minutes ago, Peter said:

The truth is that most QBs would struggle with the offense that McBeane put together. 

 

It's hard to evaluate talent in the NFL...

 

I was really encouraged by the 'dream team' front office that Beane put together, thinking that we finally had a group of savvy football minds that could build a quality roster through the draft, FA and trades.    Gaine left, but the others are still here--and have failed miserably.     Virtually every move they've made has been a dud.   And now they're risking the prize QB prospect with a Pop Warner offensive depth chart.

 

 

Edited October 5, 2018 by Lurker

[Peter]

1 minute ago, Lurker said:

 

It's hard to evaluate talent in the NFL...

 

I was really encouraged by the 'dream team' front office that Beane put together, thinking that we finally had a group of savvy football minds that could build a quality roster through the draft, FA and trades.    Gaine left, but the others are still here--and have failed miserably.     Virtually every move they've made has been a dud.   Ad now they're risking the prize QB prospect with a Pop Warner offensive depth chart.

 

So sad, but so true.

[Wayne Arnold]

35 minutes ago, BuffaloBillies said:

 

Lack of supporting cast is certainly something we can agree on. We're only 4 new OLs and 2 new WRs away from having some semblance of an offense.

 

The ‘poor personnel on the OLine and at WR’ thing is so overblown. Below-average, Yes. But people act like Allen has Division 3 walk-ons protecting him. He’s been given more time than he’s taken. Daboll has to protect him better with the scheme.

[blacklabel]

11 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

Allen had a much rougher road with a lot more adversity - needing to go Juco, writing 1000 letters trying to get a shot, then once he did get a shot busting up his shoulder and having to go through the rehab and battle his way back into form.  While he had eligibility left because of his injury and his JUCO start, Allen graduated last December.  In theory, all those experiences should help to make him stronger and more resilient.

 

Doesn't mean I think the way we're handling him is anywhere close to right.  Or, to tie threads together, I question the "strategy"

 

Good stuff all the way around, Hap. On one hand, I feel like JA has the resiliency and competitiveness to make it through this season with what he has right now. I'd hope that it just makes him more mentally (and probably physically) tougher and he gains valuable experience in doing what Dilfer says is needed: learning how to better play the game. It may take a while but at some point or another, those true franchise QBs have a drive, or a quarter, or a whole game where the switch flips on and they really "get it" and start playing the position up to their full potential. The flip side of this, unfortunately, is that some QBs never get the switch to flip on. I sincerely hope this doesn't happen with JA. I admit, my first reaction on draft night was, "They took the wrong Josh!" but I've warmed up to the kid. I like his attitude, I like that he has a lot of respect already from his teammates, I like hearing guys like Shady talk about the "swagger" he has because I believe a high level of confidence is paramount to the QB position.

 

Another encouraging thing I heard right from JA himself this week was him stating how he doesn't have to be the hero on every play, or doesn't have to think that every play is going to be a big one. Against GB, as the game wore on, I saw him get more antsy and less comfortable in the pocket because he was dying to make a play. His INT in the end zone? He was hoping one of his guys could go up and get it. Even though it's a negative to throw a pick, at this stage of his development, I don't care how many picks he throws per game (well, I mean, keep it under 3, I would say) because it means he's not afraid to take chances. And we just watched a dude for three full seasons that really didn't take very many chances. So it's a breath of fresh air to have a QB that is not afraid to sling it. 

 

I believe that at his ceiling, Josh Allen can be Brett Favre. He can be that gunslinger-type that usually wows you with his throws and abilities but he also might bum you out from time to time with a real, "WTF?" play or a bad INT. So  be it, though. No player is perfect. Sometimes you'd think that's what some Bills fans are expecting from not only their QB but the entire roster, coaching & front office staffs. Mistakes will be made. That's how we learn. Trial and error. 2018 is all about that, really. 

 

And if by season's end in 2020 things aren't where they should be, welp, try, try again! Because the sport isn't going anywhere and no matter how much this team might piss you off, neither are you. (Not you, Hapless, I mean the "general you.")

[BuffaloBillies]

2 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said:

 

The ‘poor personnel on the OLine and at WR’ thing is so overblown. Below-average, Yes. But people act like Allen has Division 3 walk-ons protecting him. He’s been given more time than he’s taken. Daboll has to protect him better with the scheme.

 

FOUR (4) below-average OLine and TWO (2) below-average WRs is not at all overblown. It's a recipe for the disaster we're witnessing.

[John from Riverside]

Everyone knows that Josh Allen would have been better served to sit a year.....

 

 

But....the train has left the station

[row_33]

10 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Everyone knows that Josh Allen would have been better served to sit a year.....

 

 

But....the train has left the station

 

 

inertia is no fun when you have to face the inevitable unprepared

 

[TheBrownBear]

I'm more worried about Allen getting physically killed, than I am about his psyche.  His mental makeup seems pretty solid.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

1 hour ago, GG said:

they didn't, but we now have about 3 1/2 games of film on Allen, which strongly support Dilfer's point.  The hope was that the Minny game was a turning point for Allen, but he regressed vs GB

 

I actually see it a little differently.  I think maybe Allen progressed between Vikes and GB, and maybe it's something he needed to go through.  Here me out. 

 

Allen is publicly very "best-behaved" - says "process"  "team" stuff about doing whatever Coach Daboll and Culley tell him, being the best QB he can for the team.  The pre-draft storyline was all about Rosen being "Mr Ego" and Allen being "Mr Coachable", but that's based on what the public hears from guys who are well-groomed and scripted, not about what's really deep in the 'little gray cells' between these young guys' ears.

 

Globally, young star athletes are full of themselves.  How can they help it?  They have to believe in themselves to get where they are, and with confidence, comes ego.  Allen in particular was used to being "The Man", by far the best player on the team and the one who carried it in Wyoming where college football is a Big Deal 'cuz it's pretty much the only show in town.   He seems like a good kid, but he'd have to be a miracle not to have Young Man Ego back-talking the advice coming at him from coaches who have never played.

 

Little hint #1:

Allen (looking at section sign at top of New Era): "Do you think I could throw it up there?  When I score a rushing touchdown, I'm going to throw it up there"

Daboll (sounding as though he's heard it before from Allen and is rolling his eyes): "How about if we just focus on getting through this practice?"

 

Little hint #2:

McDermott trying to ground Allen on the sideline before PS Game 3, something to the effect "Josh, you're going to get your ass beaten at some point"

 

Big hint #3

Kyle Williams on Schop and the Bulldog after the GB game when asked about Josh Allen: "I think there's a difference between feeling good about yourself, and being realistic about how you need to prepare.  I'm not just speaking about Josh, I'm talking about everybody.......There are ebbs and flows, peaks and valleys, things you have to weather...and sometimes the thing you have to weather is success, how are we going to handle this?"  Kyle was careful not to finger-point, but reading between the lines, I think he saw something in Allen during prep last week, and it wasn't a fired-up determination to watch extra film and dink-n-dunk.  I translate the rest of what Kyle said as "we vets can water Josh, but we can't make him drink...he's going to have to live through it." (worth a listen...it's near the end of the 14 minutes, maybe 10 or 12 minutes in)

 

Allen beat the Vikings playing JuCo ball.  One of the Packers (Matthews?) said in a pre-game radio interview, something to the effect that Allen was playing like HS, stiff-arming, hurdling linebackers, diving.  It was fun, and beautiful to watch.  And it has to have been a head-trip for our kid who is not, after all, far removed from those days of college.

 

I think Allen PROGRESSED between the Vikings and Green Bay game - progressed in the line of thinking that when Daboll and Culley are telling him "take what they give you, don't pass up a completion to take a shot" his lips are saying "Yes, sir!" but the Young Gun instinct in his little grey cells is yellling "What do they know?  These guys aren't out there.  Go For It!  Be the Man!  Worked last week!"  I think Williams, while very careful not to throw Allen under the bus, provides a hint that Allen's success vs Minnesota got him "feeling himself" and may have impacted both his game preparation for Green Bay and his choices during the game.  

 

Allen got his ass thoroughly whupped for it, both during the game and likely by the coaching staff afterwards.  He seemed chastened at the start of his presser, as if he'd been thoroughly taken to the woodshed by the coaches.  (I thought Daboll also looked like he'd been sent out to "cut a switch", if y'all know that practice)

 

It's been said that the worst thing that can happen to someone in a risky profession (a pilot, say) is to do something wrong, and succeed.  Maybe getting thumped by Green Bay is actually part of Allen's necessary growth and we fans should be grateful that he faced a team like GB that could bring the whup-ass and lay the smack-down so thoroughly. 

 

Sometimes nothing fails like success.

 

The key will be what happens going forward.  What do we see next week?

 

[quinnearlysghost88]

Thanks, Trent. Important insight.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

I'm more worried about Allen getting physically killed, than I am about his psyche.  His mental makeup seems pretty solid.

 

And then there's that.  There's no question that other QB have lived through a beating (Aikman comes to mind) and it affected their later career.

[transplantbillsfan]

11 hours ago, MJS said:

Darnold is the one playing badly out there. He should be starting but Allen shouldn't? Please.

 

This is what I don't get. 

 

Yeah, Allen sucked last game. He was also really good the week before against the Vikings.

 

But what has Darnold done to show he should be starting up to this point?

[row_33]

12 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

And then there's that.  There's no question that other QB have lived through a beating (Aikman comes to mind) and it affected their later career.

 

Jim Kelly took a brutal beating out there, took years off his prime.  He was tough....

 

 

[BmarvB]

Well, who else is going to start for us? Peterman?

[row_33]

9 minutes ago, BmarvB said:

Well, who else is going to start for us? Peterman?

 

It was just a throwaway insider factoid thing during a discussion.

 

 

[oldmanfan]

I am still somewhat mystified why we don't have a more veteran QB backing him up or playing right now.  But looking ta things in total, I believed as did management that McCarron would be that veteran bridge guy who would take snaps while Allen got ready.  So let's say he did, or if now we brought in a Landry or Moore or somebody.  We could still be 1-3 or even 0-4.  And all we'd be doing right now anyway is calling for them to start Allen.   

 

So ultimately it probably doesn't mean more than a few games he would not have played.  In the final analysis that probably doesn't matter much to our opinions.

[iinii]

Not that it matters but I agree with Dilfer. The chances of the kid getting beat up are greater than this leading to him being the GOAT. 

[OldTimeAFLGuy]

15 minutes ago, TheBrownBear said:

I'm more worried about Allen getting physically killed, than I am about his psyche.  His mental makeup seems pretty solid.

 

...don't worry....we have a dependable backup supported by McBeane's confidence.............

[iinii]

20 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Everyone knows that Josh Allen would have been better served to sit a year.....

 

 

But....the train has left the station

Sadly

[Figster]

5 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

And then there's that.  There's no question that other QB have lived through a beating (Aikman comes to mind) and it affected their later career.

At this rate Allen is on pace to get sacked 72 times by seasons end and Daboll needs to do everythinng in his power to make sure it doesn't happen IMO. GM went cheap on the Oline and you get what you pay for so the Bills can pay with a more conservative gameplan or risk ruining/injuring a young QB prospect in my humble opinion.

 

 

[ctk232]

12 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Do you happen to have a linky?

 

It's probably important to note here that Trent Dilfer had very positive things to say about Josh Allen pre draft:

Dilfer raved about Josh Allen’s traits and compared the Wyoming product to a “probably even more powerful” version of Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, but cautioned that he’s still a work in progress.  “He has everything 1980s and 1990s football wanted in a quarterback,” Dilfer said. “He is big, strong, athletic, huge arm, tough physically, mentally. I mean, he’s got the trait makeup.  “He’s not a great player yet. He needs to learn how to play the game better. What I’ve been talking about him is he’s a 650-horsepower engine that doesn’t have the car built around to sustain that horsepower. He needs to build the automobile. He needs to have the framework and the nurturing to handle that type of horsepower . . . I think, instead of a first-round player, I’d call him a first-round prospect. He needs to be developed, he needs time, he needs to be nurtured. But I absolutely would love to coach him, and I think he’ll be a star if handled properly in the NFL.”

 

So I don't think his intent is at all to put Allen down, rather to question the situation he's been put into.

 

Which I completely understand, because I question it myself.

 

On the other hand, I think it's important to remember that while Allen may resonate with Dilfer because they're both from central CA, etc there are key differences.  Aptos, CA where Dilfer grew up is just south of Santa Cruz, right on Monterey Bay.  That's a very different culture than Firebaugh.  Dilfer was recruited to Fresno, where Allen aspired to go, and started for 2 1/2 yrs before bailing out before his Senior year.  He had a lot of success, and expected to go to the NFL and have more success.

 

Allen had a much rougher road with a lot more adversity - needing to go Juco, writing 1000 letters trying to get a shot, then once he did get a shot busting up his shoulder and having to go through the rehab and battle his way back into form.  While he had eligibility left because of his injury and his JUCO start, Allen graduated last December.  In theory, all those experiences should help to make him stronger and more resilient.

 

Doesn't mean I think the way we're handling him is anywhere close to right.  Or, to tie threads together, I question the "strategy"

For as often as I disagree with Dilfer, his personal philosophies in addition to some of his football commentary, I can't argue with his analysis of Allen. That being said, I agree that he was never pessimistic about Allen, just simply critical of how he should be treated in his freshman year(s). I've seen the argument used many times on this board that, "it doesn't matter - there's no way you can ruin a QB, if he's meant to be great, he's going to be great." It's a very realist perspective of binary opposition; black or white, clear cut, sink or swim. Each player's potential in the NFL is anything but that, and their ceilings can be determined by much more than just their own mental capacity - a lot of it is exposure.

 

The reason for this tangent being, no one here disagrees Allen is a project of a draft pick, and was one of, if not the most, raw QB prospect in the draft for the reasons Dilfer identifies. Because he is such a raw prospect, and the football he has played and experienced to date is clearly not representative of the NFL, or even close to other NCAA conferences, the kid will be learning everything new for the first time. How he engages and assimilates into the NFL level of play is absolutely vital to his future success, and giving him a foundation to build from rather than having him be the foundation in his first year can easily change his trajectory and mindset for what he normalizes after a year with this pathetic af offense.

 

While Dilfer may see a lot of himself in Allen, there is very little the two QBs actually have in common. Dilfer was never a great QB, nor was he the foundation of the franchise (a.k.a Ray Lewis). He was just on the right team at the right time and did a job. Allen may never have half the team the Ravens did during those years. 

Edited October 5, 2018 by ctk232

[BmarvB]

27 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

Everyone knows that Josh Allen would have been better served to sit a year.....

 

 

But....the train has left the station

 True but there's nobody for him to sit and learn behind thanks to our genius GM.

[John from Riverside]

Just now, BmarvB said:

 True but there's nobody for him to sit and learn behind thanks to our genius GM.

I cant even defend it....keeping Peterman over AJM even with the injury was something I did not agree with.

 

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

2 minutes ago, Figster said:

At this rate Allen is on pace to get sacked 72 times by seasons end and Daboll needs to do everythinng in his power to make sure it doesn't happen IMO. GM went cheap on the Oline and you get what you pay for so the Bills can pay with a more conservative gameplan or risk ruining/injuring a young QB prospect in my humble opinion.

 

This is actually something that can be accomplished.

1) Some of the sacks are not guys getting beat, they are protection failures.  "How do they fail to see not one, but two, linebackers coming up the middle?" 

Daboll: Fix it.

2) Allen is trying too hard at times and needs to throw it away and not take a 10 yd loss.  He knows this.  He says this.  Hopefully he learns this.

3) I don't know about more conservative, but different gameplan, more appropriate for down and distance and with clear checkdowns all the time, Yes.

 

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I remember thinking the same thing ever time Trent Dilfer took the field.

[ctk232]

8 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I cant even defend it....keeping Peterman over AJM even with the injury was something I did not agree with.

 

 

AJM is not the QB people think he is, even if Peterman is the other option, at least he's cheaper.

 

Also, wherever did learning from a vet QB become a prerequisite to succeeding in the league? Maybe if you get to learn from Manning, sure, but Favre did everything in his power to not teach Rodgers. Who did Brady learn from? Bledsoe? How about Manning himself? 

 

While it has the potential to help, it certainly isn't something we need. I'm so tired of the argument "have a vet QB to help him learn the game." DO YOU MEAN A QB COACH? BECAUSE WE HAVE AND ARE ALREADY PAYING ONE. We just need to find a QB coach who has actually played the position, though...

Edited October 5, 2018 by ctk232

[row_33]

15 minutes ago, Over 29 years of fanhood said:

I remember thinking the same thing ever time Trent Dilfer took the field.

 

I saw him win a Super Bowl, were you in a Rip van Winkle sleep that season?

 

 

[John from Riverside]

Just now, ctk232 said:

AJM is not the QB people think he is, even if Peterman is the other option, at least he's cheaper.

 

Also, wherever did learning from a vet QB become a prerequisite to succeeding in the league? Maybe if you get to learn from Manning, sure, but Favre did everything in his power to not teach Rodgers. Who did Brady learn from? Bledsoe? How about Manning himself? 

 

While it has the potential to help, it certainly isn't something we need. I'm so tired of the argument "have a vet QB to help him learn the game." DO YOU MEAN A QB COACH? BECAUSE WE HAVE AND ARE ALREADY PAYING ONE. 

At this point AJM would simply be the guy taking the punishment so Josh would not have to till this offense got its crap together.....it wouldnt even be about wins