Trent Dilfer: "I don't think Josh Allen should be playing"

[VW82]

Trent Dilfer went on Ryen Russillo's podcast this week, and had a bunch of interesting takes on how teams should develop rookie QBs vs. how it was done in years gone by. His main take away was that most of the time young QBs today are ready to start right out of the gate. He was previously very against that idea.

 

Here's Dilfer on his own rookie year, and how that influences his thought process: "I was the worst player in all of football...and I just don't want to see that happen to other kids. Josh Alllen right now is the one that's ripping my heart out. Darnold should be playing. Rosen should be playing. Baker should be playing. I don't think Josh Allen should be playing. He comes up very similar background as me. Central Valley, California. Smaller school. I don't think he's ready for the bigness of the NFL, and he's not surrounded by enough good stuff - innovation, talent, whatever, the ten other things - that can make up for his lack of sophistication and experience."

 

"Every year I will identify a kid that is like me, his background is like me, you can see the writing on the wall that the chances of ruining this kid (by playing him too early) are better than the chances of making him a superstar."

 

 

Edited October 5, 2018 by VW82

[Success]

I’m very torn on this. For starters, we don’t have a choice.

 

The selfish part of me wants to just see him play, now.  I also like the idea that he’ll have a lot of game experience when they can finally surround him with talent, so he’ll be ready and we won’t have to go through the usual growing pains.

 

But he’s really getting beat up out there, and a lot of this isn’t fair to him.

[GETTOTHE50]

Lol trent dilfer wishes he had half the talent of josh allen.

 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

26 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Trent Dilfer went on Ryen Russillo's podcast this week, and had a bunch of interesting takes on how teams should develop rookie QBs vs. how it was done in years gone by. His main take away was that most of the time young QBs today are ready to start right out of the gate. He was previously very against that idea.

 

Dilfer his own rookie year, and how that influences his thought process: "I was the worst player in all of football...and I just don't want to see that happen to other kids. Josh Alllen right now is the one that's ripping my heart out. Darnold should be playing. Rosen should be playing. Baker should be playing. I don't think Josh Allen should be playing. He comes up very similar background as me. Central Valley, California. Smaller school. I don't think he's ready for the bigness of the NFL, and he's not surrounded by enough good stuff - innovation, talent, whatever, the ten other things - that can make up for his lack of sophistication and experience."

 

"Every year I will identify a kid that is like me, his background is like me, you can see the writing on the wall that the chances of ruining this kid (by playing him too early) are better than the chances of making him a superstar."

 

You may think Dilfer is an idiot, but he did spend a bunch of time with Allen at his camp pre-draft so he does have some first hand knowledge of Allen's talent and maturity level. I thought it was interesting.

 

Do you happen to have a linky?

 

It's probably important to note here that Trent Dilfer had very positive things to say about Josh Allen pre draft:

Dilfer raved about Josh Allen’s traits and compared the Wyoming product to a “probably even more powerful” version of Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, but cautioned that he’s still a work in progress.  “He has everything 1980s and 1990s football wanted in a quarterback,” Dilfer said. “He is big, strong, athletic, huge arm, tough physically, mentally. I mean, he’s got the trait makeup.  “He’s not a great player yet. He needs to learn how to play the game better. What I’ve been talking about him is he’s a 650-horsepower engine that doesn’t have the car built around to sustain that horsepower. He needs to build the automobile. He needs to have the framework and the nurturing to handle that type of horsepower . . . I think, instead of a first-round player, I’d call him a first-round prospect. He needs to be developed, he needs time, he needs to be nurtured. But I absolutely would love to coach him, and I think he’ll be a star if handled properly in the NFL.”

 

So I don't think his intent is at all to put Allen down, rather to question the situation he's been put into.

 

Which I completely understand, because I question it myself.

 

On the other hand, I think it's important to remember that while Allen may resonate with Dilfer because they're both from central CA, etc there are key differences.  Aptos, CA where Dilfer grew up is just south of Santa Cruz, right on Monterey Bay.  That's a very different culture than Firebaugh.  Dilfer was recruited to Fresno, where Allen aspired to go, and started for 2 1/2 yrs before bailing out before his Senior year.  He had a lot of success, and expected to go to the NFL and have more success.

 

Allen had a much rougher road with a lot more adversity - needing to go Juco, writing 1000 letters trying to get a shot, then once he did get a shot busting up his shoulder and having to go through the rehab and battle his way back into form.  While he had eligibility left because of his injury and his JUCO start, Allen graduated last December.  In theory, all those experiences should help to make him stronger and more resilient.

 

Doesn't mean I think the way we're handling him is anywhere close to right.  Or, to tie threads together, I question the "strategy"

[BruceVilanch]

We don't have an alternative, I understand the logic but at this point he's our best player. It would be unfair to the rest of the team to sit a guy who is obviously a better QB, that's a really good way to lose the team as a coach by playing inferior talent.

[QB Bills]

Ughhh.. Shut up dilfer. Good is good.

 

If Allen flames out then he just wasn't good enough. 

Edited October 5, 2018 by QB Bills

[Victory Formation]

I think he could play on a better team with better support. Many of the good ones played extremely dumbed down offenses their rookie years, but they all had vets to lean on while Allen has Andre Holmes and Ryan Groy.

[Bangarang]

Well, I don’t think Peterman should be playing so it looks like Allen will have to take his lumps earlier than expected.

[Boatdrinks]

I’d generally subscribe to the philosophy that you’re either good or you’re not, but Allen seems like a possible exception. He’s absolutely a remedial prospect from a tiny program that can’t possibly get a guy NFL ready. The Bills botched this by not having a seasoned vet QB, thinking they could actually get by with Nathan Peterman as a starter. So Allen plays, but I’m not so sure this can ruin him. The Bills plan might not work , and Coaches and GM will be fired, and Allen will end up on another team. He may never get a legitimate shot at starting again, as teams may not want to invest in a reclamation project. He won’t be ruined, but rather he’ll remain an underdeveloped product. A could- have rather than a has-been. He may fight through the garbage around him and succeed, but the Bills are sure making him climb a giant hill. 

[BigDingus]

8 minutes ago, Success said:

I’m very torn on this. For starters, we don’t have a choice.

 

The selfish part of me wants to just see him play, now.  I also like the idea that he’ll have a lot of game experience when they can finally surround him with talent, so he’ll be ready and we won’t have to go through the usual growing pains.

 

But he’s really getting beat up out there, and a lot of this isn’t fair to him.

 

I disagree with us not having a choice though. We could sign any number of veterans and let them take the beat down (something we should've done this offseason anyway). Hell, we could've kept McCarron if we didn't even want that. And as much as I don't think Peterman offers us any great chance to win, you made this whole offseason about EARNING the starting spot, said Peterman EARNED it, then yanked him after a half for what? Throwing 2 picks & not moving the offense? Well Allen's done that in a couple games now too, it was kind of easy to see that was going to happen 1 way or another MONTHS AGO.

If the season is lost, if the offense is going to suck no matter what, if our QB is going to get sacked like crazy, if regardless of who we put behind center is going to throw a bunch of picks, why can't you throw in any other warm body instead of the guy who NEEDED to sit, learn and develop, instead of take an epic beatdown every week? Man, I'd rather watch Kaepernick kneel every 3rd & long on the field than watch our rookie mindlessly spin-move to his blindside, right into an oncoming rusher who knocks his block off time & time again! I just feel so aggravated that with an awful O-line, awful WR's, no veteran QB, and no plan-B, we take the one QB out of the group that is least likely to succeed in that situation...

And it's especially upsetting when you read back at Allen's pre-draft breakdowns, where his biggest gifts are his physical attributes but his most glaring weaknesses signal "NEEDS TO DEVELOP & SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVE" if he's ever to have an even semi-decent chance of succeeding in the league. How many QB's have the Bills successfully developed in the modern era in their entire history!?!? They didn't even develop Jim Kelly from the start...as he played 2 years of pro football before even suiting up for the Bills. Sure wasn't Todd Collins, Alex Van Pelt, JP Losman, EJ Manuel, Jeff Tuel, Rob Johnson, Trent Edwards... Different coaching staffs, different personnel, I know. It's just hard to see us succeeding in that regard where others could not. I really, REALLY hope we do though.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

13 minutes ago, QB Bills said:

Ughhh.. Shut up dilfer. Good is good.

 

If Allen flames out then he just wasn't good enough. 

 

I'm just always puzzled by this assertion

 

Phrased as logic, it would go:

 

If a QB is good, then he won't flame out

(QB name) flamed out

Therefore, he wasn't good

 

But how do you test or justify the premise? 

It's not like anyone has ever taken 2 QB who are identical in background and skills and dumped one of them on a crap team and one of them on a good team, to prove that they both flamed out (if not good) or succeeded (if good).

[jahnyc]

Just brings us back to the same questions, which all relate to whether the Bills are putting enough around Allen to help him develop and succeed. This previously has been discussed on the board, but it does seem odd that the plan for his development in the first year has been completely botched, particularly since the Bills knew that Allen was raw coming out of college.  The Bills used so much draft capital to move up and draft him.  It does not make sense that they would then put him in a situation with a poor o-line, poor wide receivers, no QB mentor on the roster and an OC with a poor track record as an NFL OC.  

[MJS]

Darnold is the one playing badly out there. He should be starting but Allen shouldn't? Please.

[VW82]

36 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said:

 

Do you happen to have a linky?

 

It's probably important to note here that Trent Dilfer had very positive things to say about Josh Allen pre draft:

Dilfer raved about Josh Allen’s traits and compared the Wyoming product to a “probably even more powerful” version of Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, but cautioned that he’s still a work in progress.  “He has everything 1980s and 1990s football wanted in a quarterback,” Dilfer said. “He is big, strong, athletic, huge arm, tough physically, mentally. I mean, he’s got the trait makeup.  “He’s not a great player yet. He needs to learn how to play the game better. What I’ve been talking about him is he’s a 650-horsepower engine that doesn’t have the car built around to sustain that horsepower. He needs to build the automobile. He needs to have the framework and the nurturing to handle that type of horsepower . . . I think, instead of a first-round player, I’d call him a first-round prospect. He needs to be developed, he needs time, he needs to be nurtured. But I absolutely would love to coach him, and I think he’ll be a star if handled properly in the NFL.”

 

So I don't think his intent is at all to put Allen down, rather to question the situation he's been put into.

 

Which I completely understand, because I question it myself.

 

On the other hand, I think it's important to remember that while Allen may resonate with Dilfer because they're both from central CA, etc there are key differences.  Aptos, CA where Dilfer grew up is just south of Santa Cruz, right on Monterey Bay.  That's a very different culture than Firebaugh.  Dilfer was recruited to Fresno, where Allen aspired to go, and started for 2 1/2 yrs before bailing out before his Senior year.  He had a lot of success, and expected to go to the NFL and have more success.

 

Allen had a much rougher road with a lot more adversity - needing to go Juco, writing 1000 letters trying to get a shot, then once he did get a shot busting up his shoulder and having to go through the rehab and battle his way back into form.  While he had eligibility left because of his injury and his JUCO start, Allen graduated last December.  In theory, all those experiences should help to make him stronger and more resilient.

 

Doesn't mean I think the way we're handling him is anywhere close to right.  Or, to tie threads together, I question the "strategy"

 

Sorry forgot the link. It's up now.

 

Yes Dilfer loves Allen. I think his perspective closely resembled that of the concerned father who was watching his son needlessly go through the same trials and tribulations that he had 20 some years earlier. He repeatedly said how his heart was breaking for the kid. I think he genuinely cares, and believes in him too. It's the timing and the situation, or as you said "the strategy." Culture over everything, right?  

 

The adversity aspect is interesting to me. In theory it makes a ton of sense. That said, if Josh is so much more mature because of the road he took to get to the NFL, why doesn't it show to people like Dilfer who claim he just isn't ready? There's a bit of a disconnect there. 

 

 

 

Edited October 5, 2018 by VW82

[Domdab99]

Apples and oranges.

 

Dilfer coming out of college did not have the potential or the skills that Allen has now. 

 

I wouldn't have started a talentless Trent Dilfer, either. 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

12 minutes ago, VW82 said:

Sorry forgot the link. It's up now.

 

Yes Dilfer loves Allen. I think his perspective closely resembled that of the concerned father who was watching his son needlessly go through the same trials and tribulations that he had 20 something years earlier. He repeatedly said how his heart was breaking for the kid. I think he genuinely cares, and believes in him too. It's the timing and the situation, or as you put, the "strategy." Culture over everything, right?  

 

The adversity aspect is interesting to me. In theory it makes a ton of sense. That said, if Josh is so much more mature because of the road he took to get to the NFL, why doesn't it show to people like Dilfer who claim he just isn't ready? There's a bit of a disconnect.

 

When Dilfer says Allen isn't ready, I'm pretty sure he's talking about his QB skillset - his mechanics, his ability to "make the Bunnies", his ability to read D and make fast decisions.

 

OTOH, he does know Allen personally at least a little bit, so maybe he does sense some personal traits.

 

My point was that I think Dilfer feels that he (Dilfer) was overwhelmed and unprepared for criticism and failure and it stunted him, and he thinks that Allen will be similarly overwhelmed and stunted.  And I absolutely don't think it's the best way to develop Allen, but I think it's possible Allen will react differently because his background is superficially similar, but diverges in important ways. 

[bills11]

I agree with alot of what he's saying ..Allen is still learning how to play the position baker and darnold and Rosen are ready . Which makes it more insane that we went into the year with Peterman ..Allen shud be learning from a vet right now we could have got Teddy Bridgewater before the Jets for example . Allen has the highest ceiling but also the higher learning curve 

[Hapless Bills Fan]

3 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

Apples and oranges.

 

Dilfer coming out of college did not have the potential or the skills that Allen has now. 

 

I wouldn't have started a talentless Trent Dilfer, either. 

 

This is pure revisionism, Domdab.  Dilfer was regarded as very talented coming out of Fresno.  It's why he was drafted #6 overall.  Wiki:

" Dilfer helped Fresno State win or share the conference title for three straight seasons and started in two bowl games. In his junior season, Dilfer led the nation in pass efficiency en route to being named the WAC Offensive Player of the Year. He also set the NCAA record for consecutive pass attempts without an interception (271) that stood until 2007, when Kentucky quarterback Andre' Woodson broke it." 

 

He was highly regarded in that draft class.  He played a pro system, threw almost no interceptions, had ~65% completions.  He was felt to have talent.

[VW82]

58 minutes ago, QB Bills said:

Ughhh.. Shut up dilfer. Good is good.

 

If Allen flames out then he just wasn't good enough. 

 

This is such a frustrating line of thinking to me. 

 

Quick story from my youth: I went to university with this girl "Jenny" (her Canadian name) who was from rural China. We were in a bunch of classes together first year. She spoke English well enough to understand what was going on but still struggled badly. The rest of us were just so far ahead of her it wasn't fair. She legit flunked out and had to take a bunch of hundred level courses over again in the summer, and then again the next summer. The thing was Jenny was brilliant, way smarter and more naturally gifted than the rest of us, and ultimately medalled at congregation. But she was so close to flunking out and having to move back home. It really could have gone either way for her at various points that first year.

 

To ignore circumstance and context, and pretend like they don't play a massive role in the success of people is just plain ignorant. Good is not always good enough without a little help. If Allen flames out it will be because of a variety of factors, and will depend at least partly on the circumstance he flamed out in.   

Edited October 5, 2018 by VW82

[folz]

I think we can all agree that Josh isn't really ready yet. He has a lot to learn. And we can also agree that he is not in the best position to succeed (with the way the O-line and WRs have been performing). And we have all seen QBs flame out seemingly due to being thrown to the wolves too early on a bad team.

 

But, Allen is smart, seems to be a tough-minded kid, knows what hard work is, hasn't been handed things to him on a silver platter, is very competitive, etc. So I really don't think he will be ruined by being put in his current position. That's not to say he will automatically become a franchise QB, he will have to prove that he has the mentality/temperament for it (reading defenses, going through his progressions, internal clock, pocket awareness, etc.). But I don't think taking a lot of sacks or throwing a lot of picks will ruin this kid (provided he doesn't get hurt). So, believing that about him, I'm kind of glad that he will get a lot of playing experience this year, so that he's ready to take a big step next year. And hopefully with each game, the game will start slowing down for him, like Frazier says is starting to happen for Edmunds.

 

It won't look pretty at times, he will take some big hits and make some embarrassing plays, which is why I can understand Dilfer's stance (as a guy who is rooting for Josh and knows what that feels like). But again, I think the experience he will gain this year will be invaluable going forward.