Mike Clay (ESPN) Score Projections Has the Bills Favored in Just Two Games

[leh-nerd skin-erd]

16 minutes ago, MDFan said:

If you click on this click bait and read his tweets, this is not a win/loss projection.  He has done that separately and has Buffalo projected at 5.7 wins, still third worst in the league.  Not sure what this analysis is worth - not much really.  

the .7 win will come in the Electoral College Bowl brought you by Kellogs.  We will dominate on offense, defense and special teams, but lose 35-6. 

[Jamie Nails]

5.7 wins and second place in our division! lol

[corta765]

He has the Bills at 5.7 wins in his actual projection which I don't disagree much with. He states specifically just because a team is favored doesn't mean they will win.

[Boca BIlls]

Doesn't matter in !@#$ing May of all times.

[John from Riverside]

35 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

To Do List:

• Pick up eggs
• Call my Mom
• Set up an appointment for Thursday to get my fan belt changed
• Send payment for child's school pics.
• Go tell Mike Clay to **** off

Sir you really need to move Clay up in the priortization

[Fadingpain]

37 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

Forecasting that the Bills will completely suck is a popular position to take for the media, kind of like forecasting that NE will be great...all the cool kids are doing it.  Meh, so what, let them be proven wrong.

yeah but this is not your typical ex-football player meathead talking out his ass.

 

This is a bit more "scientific" than that.

 

Way too early to make these projections in my opinion, but we are going to have a tough year ahead of us, especially if Allen can't jump in right away and actually be good.

 

 

[thurst44]

57 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Score projections for all 256 regular season NFL games sounds like win/loss to me.

FWIW, I'm pretty sure this is the same guy who predicted them 2-14 awhile back in his "bold predictions" column. It's possible, but I'd say it's not much more possible than 14-2. It's an extreme. They've only been 2-14 twice since I've been following them, and never in the drought, and this team does not seem like a particular dropoff from last year (the defense could be MUCH better...and was very good in more than half the games, including the playoff game). If Allen starts and has an even bigger learning curve than we expect or McCarron turns out to be awful, and the defense plays more like it did in the three-game disaster or in either Patriots game, perhaps they could go 2-14, but it doesn't seem very likely.

1 hour ago, WMDman said:

we were supposed to go 4-12 last year 

And it was that weird thing that seems to happen where national pundits seem to try to top each other with how bad they say the Bills will be.

Edited May 14, 2018 by thurst44
just more to say :)

[teef]

what am i going to do on sundays at 1 pm now?

[Jay_Fixit]

Predicting games in September is dumb.

 

Predicting games in May is hilarious. 

15 minutes ago, teef said:

what am i going to do on sundays at 1 pm now?

Probably be walking through the farmers market like you usually do?

[PromoTheRobot]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

?

 

So how is this different than any other season?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Probably based on a game simulation model that was run thousand of times. 

 

OOOOOH edgy analytics.

 

I bet Mike Schopp sported wood over this guy's "analysis."

 

[GoBills808]

He has Cleveland averaging almost 22 ppg over the first 8 weeks when they averaged less than 15 all of 2018. 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

He has Cleveland averaging almost 22 ppg over the first 8 weeks when they averaged less than 15 all of 2018. 

 

Obviously, he never watched Tyrod Taylor quarterback a football team.

 

[Kirby Jackson]

44 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

He has Cleveland averaging almost 22 ppg over the first 8 weeks when they averaged less than 15 all of 2018. 

They are a totally different offense. They added Landry, Hyde, Tyrod, Baker, Chubb, Corbett, Hubbard, Fells, and a healthy Josh Gordon. They should be miles ahead of where they were a year ago. 

Edited May 14, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[Mark Vader]

1 hour ago, Augie said:

This is actually a slight improvement over the Bills record the first 2 years of my marriage (2-14 back to back). My young bride asked “why do you do this to yourself?”

And what was the response you gave to your young bride?

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, joesixpack said:

 

Obviously, he never watched Tyrod Taylor quarterback a football team.

 

He did lead 2 top 10 scoring offenses with less talent than the Browns have....

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, joesixpack said:

 

Obviously, he never watched Tyrod Taylor quarterback a football team.

 

 

He might have watched him in 2015 and 2016, when the Bills scored more than 22 points per game.

[jr1]

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

They are a totally different offense. They added Landry, Hyde, Tyrod, Baker, Chubb, Corbett, Hubbard, Fella, and a healthy Josh Gordon. They should be miles ahead of where they were a year ago. 

All those guys put together MIGHT add 3-4 points to the spread. Never, ever more than a TD. 

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

All those guys put together MIGHT add 3-4 points to the spread. Never, ever more than a TD. 

 

Kizer threw 22 picks last year. Addition by subtraction. Tyrod, Gordon, Landey, and Chubb should be huge improvements. Of course it is Cleveland so I wouldn't make assumptions about it yet.

[GoBills808]

7 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

He might have watched him in 2015 and 2016, when the Bills scored more than 22 points per game.

That's the point, though. In 2015 the Bills averaged 23.7PPG overall...and 26 PPG when Taylor was out of the lineup injured. He isn't the kind of QB who moves the needle wrt the spread, and neither are any of the guys they picked up. Predicting they improve their scoring offense by more than a TD is ludicrous.

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Kizer threw 22 picks last year. Addition by subtraction. Tyrod, Gordon, Landey, and Chubb should be huge improvements. Of course it is Cleveland so I wouldn't make assumptions about it yet.

Yes, but a pick isn't worth -6 points while a TD is...and the Browns (as a team) threw for one MORE TD than did Taylor for the Bills last season. 

I just think this Browns hype is really, really misguided.

[JohnC]

The Vegas line from early March has Buffalo winning 6.5 games. 

 

https://www.betfirm.com/nfl-win-totals/

[Albwan]

I have permanently blocked out anything on espn. 

Used to love espn many years ago, not so much anymore.

Would rather listen to any wgr show and i'm not that fond

of any of those either.

[Kirby Jackson]

49 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

All those guys put together MIGHT add 3-4 points to the spread. Never, ever more than a TD. 

The Bills averaged 22.7 in 2015 and 23.7 in 2016. This Browns offense, on paper, looks much better than those 2 IMO. I don’t think that’s a stretch.

43 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

That's the point, though. In 2015 the Bills averaged 23.7PPG overall...and 26 PPG when Taylor was out of the lineup injured. He isn't the kind of QB who moves the needle wrt the spread, and neither are any of the guys they picked up. Predicting they improve their scoring offense by more than a TD is ludicrous.

Yes, but a pick isn't worth -6 points while a TD is...and the Browns (as a team) threw for one MORE TD than did Taylor for the Bills last season. 

I just think this Browns hype is really, really misguided.

This is really misguided as well. You take a 2 game sample size where the offense spotted the opponent 21 in London as your guide. The Jags went into a vanilla defense and dared the Bills to come back. A big defensive TD by Graham gave them a chance. You’re are t fooling anyone into believing that the Bills performed better with EJ.

Edited May 14, 2018 by Kirby Jackson

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The Bills averaged 22.7 in 2015 and 23.7 in 2016. This Browns offense, on paper, looks much better than those 2 IMO. I don’t think that’s a stretch.

Could be misremembering but I think it was 23.7 in 2015...and as I replied to HappyDays above the Bills actually averaged >3 ppg more without Taylor in the lineup. He doesn't move the needle that much at all, and he's the quarterback; the rest of the guys they added together might account for 1-2 ppg more at most. 

[Kirby Jackson]

8 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Could be misremembering but I think it was 23.7 in 2015...and as I replied to HappyDays above the Bills actually averaged >3 ppg more without Taylor in the lineup. He doesn't move the needle that much at all, and he's the quarterback; the rest of the guys they added together might account for 1-2 ppg more at most. 

I replied to that bs on the offense scoring more. That couldn’t be more misleading.

[HappyDays]

43 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

That's the point, though. In 2015 the Bills averaged 23.7PPG overall...and 26 PPG when Taylor was out of the lineup injured. He isn't the kind of QB who moves the needle wrt the spread, and neither are any of the guys they picked up. Predicting they improve their scoring offense by more than a TD is ludicrous.

 

Let's take the large sample size we actually have which is 45 games where Tyrod was the starter. Our average PPG in those games was 22.3. It is absolutely not crazy to say that an offense which added Tyrod, Gordon, and Landry can get to at least 22.3 PPG. If they can't get there, Hue should unquestionably be fired. The big question mark for me is offensive line but it won't be worse than anything we've had in the past 3 seasons.

[Best Player Available]

2 hours ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Probably based on a game simulation model that was run thousand of times. 

Lol! i will acept this as sarcasm.

 

 

 

 

If not pure hyperbole. Cut and paste garbage.....

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I replied to that bs on the offense scoring more. That couldn’t be more misleading.

I don't care about the Bills 2015 offense. My 'bs' point is that no QB is worth 7 ppg to the spread; not Brady, not Roethlisberger, not Rodgers. Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr aren't worth 2 ppg. There's no justification at all for thinking the Browns are suddenly going to be a TD better than they were last year.

 

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Let's take the large sample size we actually have which is 45 games where Tyrod was the starter. Our average PPG in those games was 22.3. It is absolutely not crazy to say that an offense which added Tyrod, Gordon, and Landry can get to at least 22.3 PPG. If they can't get there, Hue should unquestionably be fired. The big question mark for me is offensive line but it won't be worse than anything we've had in the past 3 seasons.

And in 2013 the Bills offense averaged 21.2 ppg. That's about what in my mind Taylor is worth to the spread if we're being generous, since McCoy was also added in 2014. Suggesting the Browns are going to improve by over 7 points is ludicrous imo.

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, GoBills808 said:

I don't care about the Bills 2015 offense. My 'bs' point is that no QB is worth 7 ppg to the spread; not Brady, not Roethlisberger, not Rodgers. Antonio Brown and Odell Beckham Jr aren't worth 2 ppg. There's no justification at all for thinking the Browns are suddenly going to be a TD better than they were last year.

 

And in 2013 the Bills offense averaged 21.2 ppg. That's about what in my mind Taylor is worth to the spread if we're being generous, since McCoy was also added in 2014. Suggesting the Browns are going to improve by over 7 points is ludicrous imo.

It’s not just the QB though, their whole offense is different. If you count Gordon as new, their top 2 QBs, top 2 RBs, top 2 WRs and 2 starting OL are all new. That’s not minor tweaks. They are a totally different team. 

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

And in 2013 the Bills offense averaged 21.2 ppg. That's about what in my mind Taylor is worth to the spread if we're being generous, since McCoy was also added in 2014. Suggesting the Browns are going to improve by over 7 points is ludicrous imo.

 

The step up from Kizer to Tyrod is a lot bigger than the step up from Orton to Tyrod. You're underselling how bad Kizer was last year. He literally threw twice as many interceptions as he threw TDs!! 22 to 11. You have to try to be that bad. His ANY/A was worse than 33 other QBs. His passer rating was ranked last out of all 32 starting QBs and he was actually a full 9 points worse than #31 (for reference a 9 point change in passer rating would bring the 16th rated QB to 27th or to 8th depending on which way the change went). He was so terrible it's crazy. You're going from that to a league average starter, plus adding Gordon and Landry and Nick Chubb for 16 games. And hopefully a better defense that gets off the field more. A TD more per game is not out of the question.

[NoSaint]

2 hours ago, Happy Gilmore said:

Forecasting that the Bills will completely suck is a popular position to take for the media, kind of like forecasting that NE will be great...all the cool kids are doing it.  Meh, so what, let them be proven wrong.

 

After 20 years of each... and with them fielding a HOF qb and us with our group... it’s not like they are being mean girls or super lazy. They have been batting a pretty good average with that set of predictions 

[H2o]

The defense will be too good to not win at least 7 imo and we sure as hell aren't starting off the season 0-8. 

[Happy]

1 minute ago, NoSaint said:

 

After 20 years of each... and with them fielding a HOF qb and us with our group... it’s not like they are being mean girls or super lazy. They have been batting a pretty good average with that set of predictions 

 

If they said "the Bills will be mediocre, maybe 7-9 or 8-8 but certainly will not compete for the division" that would be believable.  A 2-13-1 record...come on, at least be somewhat realistic.  It's still too early for a prediction, but if I had to bet against the ESPN predicted record...easy money.

[NoSaint]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

That's the point, though. In 2015 the Bills averaged 23.7PPG overall...and 26 PPG when Taylor was out of the lineup injured. He isn't the kind of QB who moves the needle wrt the spread, and neither are any of the guys they picked up. Predicting they improve their scoring offense by more than a TD is ludicrous.

Yes, but a pick isn't worth -6 points while a TD is...and the Browns (as a team) threw for one MORE TD than did Taylor for the Bills last season. 

I just think this Browns hype is really, really misguided.

 

For an average team, no he’s not. When you add him, a couple WRs and a rb and he’s replacing a train wreck... well... it’s not hard to imagine they could be relatively average instead of downright terrible. 

 

It’s practically small new offense, so YOY comparisons only go so far. 

[GoBills808]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The step up from Kizer to Tyrod is a lot bigger than the step up from Orton to Tyrod. You're underselling how bad Kizer was last year. He literally threw twice as many interceptions as he threw TDs!! 22 to 11. You have to try to be that bad. His ANY/A was worse than 33 other QBs. His passer rating was ranked last out of all 32 starting QBs and he was actually a full 9 points worse than #31 (for reference a 9 point change in passer rating would bring the 16th rated QB to 27th or to 8th depending on which way the change went). He was so terrible it's crazy. You're going from that to a league average starter, plus adding Gordon and Landry and Nick Chubb for 16 games. And hopefully a better defense that gets off the field more. A TD more per game is not out of the question.

2013 was Manuel, not Orton. If you compare that to 2015 (which I believe we are), the additions of Taylor, Charles Clay, and Lesean McCoy (plus a couple of Percy Harvin games) were worth about 1.2 ppg between those offenses comparatively. 

 

 

[Happy]

2 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

This is a bit more "scientific" than that.

 

2-13-1 is scientific?  SciFi, maybe.

 

2 hours ago, Fadingpain said:

 

Way too early to make these projections in my opinion, but we are going to have a tough year ahead of us, especially if Allen can't jump in right away and actually be good.

 

Agree.

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, Happy Gilmore said:

 

If they said "the Bills will be mediocre, maybe 7-9 or 8-8 but certainly will not compete for the division" that would be believable.  A 2-13-1 record...come on, at least be somewhat realistic.  It's still too early for a prediction, but if I had to bet against the ESPN predicted record...easy money.

Vegas has the Bills at 6.5. That feels close to right because of the defense. I still don’t think that they win 7 games. That offense could be the worst that the Bills have ever fielded. If Allen can play it won’t matter though. Look at what the Browns did to their offense this offseason. The Bills have a chance to do that next offseason. 

[NoSaint]

2 minutes ago, Happy Gilmore said:

 

If they said "the Bills will be mediocre, maybe 7-9 or 8-8 but certainly will not compete for the division" that would be believable.  A 2-13-1 record...come on, at least be somewhat realistic.  It's still too early for a prediction, but if I had to bet against the ESPN predicted record...easy money.

What’s tricky in these is whether they are throwing out points for games in a total vacuum or trying to craft a full season record.

 

id venture if asked to pick individual games scores I’d likely land at a lower total but think that a lot of those would be 60-40 splits where we end up almost .500 despite picking losses across a lot of them (if that kind of makes sense)

 

when projecting the win-loss record I tend to do odds and total that up (40% chance of winning a game being 0.4 wins in my total prediction). Some years the gap between the two methods can be pretty wide for me.

[GoBills808]

6 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Vegas has the Bills at 6.5. That feels close to right because of the defense. I still don’t think that they win 7 games. That offense could be the worst that the Bills have ever fielded. If Allen can play it won’t matter though. Look at what the Browns did to their offense this offseason. The Bills have a chance to do that next offseason. 

I will give you 1.25-1 on the Bills having a better record than the Browns, for as much as you like. I'll also take the under on the Browns offense scoring 19ppg straight up, again as much as you like.