racketmaster Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 When discussing Josh Allen, inevitably his career college completion percentage (56.2%) comes up in the conversation. Most analysts seem to be in agreement that there are very few examples in recent history of quarterbacks who have had sub 60% completion percentage and still had NFL success. Favre and Stafford seem to be the most cited examples of the anomalies. Therefore, Allen will have to be an “outlier” in order to have any measure of NFL. Allen is thought to end up being the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller. I tend to believe that completion percentage does not necessarily equal accuracy (many other factors come into play). But that discussion has been had many times before and I was just interested in seeing what other quarterbacks may be out there that had a sub 60% completion percentage and also a decent amount of NFL success. I went back to quarterbacks drafted 1990 and forward. I know the game has evolved since then and completion percentages tend to be much higher today because of the types of schemes teams tend to run at the college level. But I still think it was worth looking into especially since Allen has not run a gimmicky college offense but rather he has operated in a pro style passing offense where he has been asked to make a higher percentage of difficult downfield throws (more like what quarterbacks were asked to do in the 1980’s and 1990’s). Below is a list of other quarterbacks who have had at least a decent career and also had a less than 60% completion percentage in college. I know “decent” is subjective but I was looking at quarterbacks who have at least stuck around a long time as high end backups or at least had brief periods of solid success as a starter. This is not a complete list but I think it covers most if not all of the quality starters drafted from 1990 to the Present. Brett Favre 52.4% Southern Miss. 1990 Mark Brunell 52.0% Washington 1993 Kerry Collins 56.3% Penn State 1995 Drew Bledsoe 54.3% Washington State 1993 Brian Griese 59.5% Michigan 1998 Jeff George 58.8% Illinois 1990 Jake Plummer 55.4% Arizona State 1996 Jeff Garcia 56.8% San Jose State 1994 Donovan McNabb 58.4% Syracuse 1999 Neil O’Donnell 58.8% Maryland 1990 Trent Dilfer 59.1% Fresno State 1994 Trent Green 55.8% Indiana 1993 Jake Delhomme 52.6% Louisiana 1997 Matt Hasselbeck 55.6% Boston College 1998 Mike Vick 56.0% Va Tech 2000 Tyrod Taylor 57.2% Va Tech 2011 Colin Kaepenick 58.2% 2011 Matthew Stafford 57.1% Georgia 2009 Josh McCown 51.2% SMU 2002 Carson Palmer 59.1% USC 2003 Kyle Orton 58.8% Purdue 2005 David Garrard 57.0% East Carolina 2002 Jay Cutler 57.2% Vanderbilt 2006 Matt Ryan 59.9% Boston College 2008 Brian Hoyer 55.8% Michigan State 2009 Derek Anderson 50.7% Oregon State 2005 Chad Henne 59.7% Michigan 2008 After looking back at the quarterbacks, I was surprised to find so many that were sub 60% since 1990. I was under the impression that there were only a handful since Brett Favre came out but there were at least 6-7 high quality starters in the group. Hopefully, this gives those stuck on Allen’s lower completion percentage a little more hope. And the positive thing for Allen is that he has some rare physical traits that can help him overcome the perceived inaccuracy issue. 2 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CajunBillsBacker Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 Now let’s put together a list of 62% and up QB’s that didn’t amount to anything. I bet that list is even longer. 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Billieve Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 Hey, no fair trying to count silent evidence. How else are we going to manufacture points to make. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BadLandsMeanie Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, racketmaster said: When discussing Josh Allen, inevitably his career college completion percentage (56.2%) comes up in the conversation. Most analysts seem to be in agreement that there are very few examples in recent history of quarterbacks who have had sub 60% completion percentage and still had NFL success. Favre and Stafford seem to be the most cited examples of the anomalies. Therefore, Allen will have to be an “outlier” in order to have any measure of NFL. Allen is thought to end up being the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller. I tend to believe that completion percentage does not necessarily equal accuracy (many other factors come into play). But that discussion has been had many times before and I was just interested in seeing what other quarterbacks may be out there that had a sub 60% completion percentage and also a decent amount of NFL success. I went back to quarterbacks drafted 1990 and forward. I know the game has evolved since then and completion percentages tend to be much higher today because of the types of schemes teams tend to run at the college level. But I still think it was worth looking into especially since Allen has not run a gimmicky college offense but rather he has operated in a pro style passing offense where he has been asked to make a higher percentage of difficult downfield throws (more like what quarterbacks were asked to do in the 1980’s and 1990’s). Below is a list of other quarterbacks who have had at least a decent career and also had a less than 60% completion percentage in college. I know “decent” is subjective but I was looking at quarterbacks who have at least stuck around a long time as high end backups or at least had brief periods of solid success as a starter. This is not a complete list but I think it covers most if not all of the quality starters drafted from 1990 to the Present. Brett Favre 52.4% Southern Miss. 1990 Mark Brunell 52.0% Washington 1993 Kerry Collins 56.3% Penn State 1995 Drew Bledsoe 54.3% Washington State 1993 Brian Griese 59.5% Michigan 1998 Jeff George 58.8% Illinois 1990 Jake Plummer 55.4% Arizona State 1996 Jeff Garcia 56.8% San Jose State 1994 Donovan McNabb 58.4% Syracuse 1999 Neil O’Donnell 58.8% Maryland 1990 Trent Dilfer 59.1% Fresno State 1994 Trent Green 55.8% Indiana 1993 Jake Delhomme 52.6% Louisiana 1997 Matt Hasselbeck 55.6% Boston College 1998 Mike Vick 56.0% Va Tech 2000 Tyrod Taylor 57.2% Va Tech 2011 Colin Kaepenick 58.2% 2011 Matthew Stafford 57.1% Georgia 2009 Josh McCown 51.2% SMU 2002 Carson Palmer 59.1% USC 2003 Kyle Orton 58.8% Purdue 2005 David Garrard 57.0% East Carolina 2002 Jay Cutler 57.2% Vanderbilt 2006 Matt Ryan 59.9% Boston College 2008 Brian Hoyer 55.8% Michigan State 2009 Derek Anderson 50.7% Oregon State 2005 Chad Henne 59.7% Michigan 2008 After looking back at the quarterbacks, I was surprised to find so many that were sub 60% since 1990. I was under the impression that there were only a handful since Brett Favre came out but there were at least 6-7 high quality starters in the group. Hopefully, this gives those stuck on Allen’s lower completion percentage a little more hope. And the positive thing for Allen is that he has some rare physical traits that can help him overcome the perceived inaccuracy issue. Wow I expected this would be a troll post I would open only to find no names listed. Thanks for doing all of that work! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Linen Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 7 minutes ago, CajunBillsBacker said: Now let’s put together a list of 62% and up QB’s that didn’t amount to anything. I bet that list is even longer. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2020 Our Year For Sure Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 Nice work. Thanks! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racketmaster Posted May 7, 2018 Author Share Posted May 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, CajunBillsBacker said: Now let’s put together a list of 62% and up QB’s that didn’t amount to anything. I bet that list is even longer. This is probably true although I have not actually looked through the stats to confirm it. But people don't go around saying quarterback X is going to fail because he has a higher than 62% completion percentage. But people have frequently pointed to Allen's completion % as the factor that will lead to his failure as a prospect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juice_32 Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 Stafford jumps out to me. I think he and Allen are similar in a lot of ways. Allen is better on the move probably. If JA ends up having a Stafford-like career I'd be happy. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racketmaster Posted May 7, 2018 Author Share Posted May 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Juice_32 said: Stafford jumps out to me. I think he and Allen are similar in a lot of ways. Allen is better on the move probably. If JA ends up having a Stafford-like career I'd be happy. I agree. Both have rocket arms and have some good mobility. If you look at Stafford's NFL career, he was mostly a 60% passer during his first 5 years. The past 3 years he has been a 65% passer. For those who believe completion percentage equals accuracy, then his career shows that accuracy can be improved. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seanbillsfan2206 Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 23 minutes ago, racketmaster said: Brett Favre 52.4% Southern Miss. 1990 Mark Brunell 52.0% Washington 1993 Kerry Collins 56.3% Penn State 1995 Drew Bledsoe 54.3% Washington State 1993 Brian Griese 59.5% Michigan 1998 Jeff George 58.8% Illinois 1990 Jake Plummer 55.4% Arizona State 1996 Jeff Garcia 56.8% San Jose State 1994 Donovan McNabb 58.4% Syracuse 1999 Neil O’Donnell 58.8% Maryland 1990 Trent Dilfer 59.1% Fresno State 1994 Trent Green 55.8% Indiana 1993 Jake Delhomme 52.6% Louisiana 1997 Matt Hasselbeck 55.6% Boston College 1998 Mike Vick 56.0% Va Tech 2000 Tyrod Taylor 57.2% Va Tech 2011 Colin Kaepenick 58.2% 2011 Matthew Stafford 57.1% Georgia 2009 Josh McCown 51.2% SMU 2002 Carson Palmer 59.1% USC 2003 Kyle Orton 58.8% Purdue 2005 David Garrard 57.0% East Carolina 2002 Jay Cutler 57.2% Vanderbilt 2006 Matt Ryan 59.9% Boston College 2008 Brian Hoyer 55.8% Michigan State 2009 Derek Anderson 50.7% Oregon State 2005 Chad Henne 59.7% Michigan 2008 You forgot to add the greatest QB in Buffalo Bills history to this list..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magnum Force Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said: You forgot to add the greatest QB in Buffalo Bills history to this list..... I thought the same thing but it said from 1990 to the present. Edited May 7, 2018 by Magnum Force Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo716 Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, racketmaster said: I agree. Both have rocket arms and have some good mobility. If you look at Stafford's NFL career, he was mostly a 60% passer during his first 5 years. The past 3 years he has been a 65% passer. For those who believe completion percentage equals accuracy, then his career shows that accuracy can be improved. I know high completion % doesn’t always equal great accuracy but there is some correlation sometimes Matt Stafford is a guy who had lower completion % in college but always threw a good ball. He didn’t magically become accurate, he already was and The stats finally translated Josh Allen isn’t the most accurate QB I have ever seen but he does throw some very good balls. His deep ball and mid range game are both very good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeGOATski Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 The major knock on Allen is accuracy. Completion percentage is only one indicator of that. We're going to be doing this until at least next year, aren't we. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racketmaster Posted May 7, 2018 Author Share Posted May 7, 2018 1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said: I know high completion % doesn’t always equal great accuracy but there is some correlation sometimes Matt Stafford is a guy who had lower completion % in college but always threw a good ball. He didn’t magically become accurate, he already was and The stats finally translated Josh Allen isn’t the most accurate QB I have ever seen but he does throw some very good balls. His deep ball and mid range game are both very good I really like his accuracy on intermediate throws. His wrs rarely had much separation and he frequently fit the ball into tight windows even while on the move. Allen's accuracy seemed to be off on the "easier" throws such as a bubble screen or rb checkdown in the flat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fansince88 Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 Great post. Thanks for sharing and putting all the work into this! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 People have used 60% solely because it's a round number. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racketmaster Posted May 7, 2018 Author Share Posted May 7, 2018 4 minutes ago, LeGOATski said: The major knock on Allen is accuracy. Completion percentage is only one indicator of that. We're going to be doing this until at least next year, aren't we. I agree that Allen's accuracy appears to be the biggest question that analysts and fans have about him as a prospect. Watching Allen play, I am less concerned about his accuracy and more concerned about his mechanics and footwork. He seems to miss more than he should on shorter passer, especially if he has to reset his feet. When Allen has his feet under him he is very accurate, especially on intermediate throws. Allen can put balls 30-40 yards down the field into a tight window while he is on the run. So I think he has a natural ability to be accurate with the football. I am hopeful that he can make corrections to his mechanics on the shorter passes, even if it is just modest improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 31 minutes ago, racketmaster said: When discussing Josh Allen, inevitably his career college completion percentage (56.2%) comes up in the conversation. Most analysts seem to be in agreement that there are very few examples in recent history of quarterbacks who have had sub 60% completion percentage and still had NFL success. Favre and Stafford seem to be the most cited examples of the anomalies. Therefore, Allen will have to be an “outlier” in order to have any measure of NFL. Allen is thought to end up being the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller. I tend to believe that completion percentage does not necessarily equal accuracy (many other factors come into play). But that discussion has been had many times before and I was just interested in seeing what other quarterbacks may be out there that had a sub 60% completion percentage and also a decent amount of NFL success. I went back to quarterbacks drafted 1990 and forward. I know the game has evolved since then and completion percentages tend to be much higher today because of the types of schemes teams tend to run at the college level. But I still think it was worth looking into especially since Allen has not run a gimmicky college offense but rather he has operated in a pro style passing offense where he has been asked to make a higher percentage of difficult downfield throws (more like what quarterbacks were asked to do in the 1980’s and 1990’s). Below is a list of other quarterbacks who have had at least a decent career and also had a less than 60% completion percentage in college. I know “decent” is subjective but I was looking at quarterbacks who have at least stuck around a long time as high end backups or at least had brief periods of solid success as a starter. This is not a complete list but I think it covers most if not all of the quality starters drafted from 1990 to the Present. Brett Favre 52.4% Southern Miss. 1990 Mark Brunell 52.0% Washington 1993 Kerry Collins 56.3% Penn State 1995 Drew Bledsoe 54.3% Washington State 1993 Brian Griese 59.5% Michigan 1998 Jeff George 58.8% Illinois 1990 Jake Plummer 55.4% Arizona State 1996 Jeff Garcia 56.8% San Jose State 1994 Donovan McNabb 58.4% Syracuse 1999 Neil O’Donnell 58.8% Maryland 1990 Trent Dilfer 59.1% Fresno State 1994 Trent Green 55.8% Indiana 1993 Jake Delhomme 52.6% Louisiana 1997 Matt Hasselbeck 55.6% Boston College 1998 Mike Vick 56.0% Va Tech 2000 Tyrod Taylor 57.2% Va Tech 2011 Colin Kaepenick 58.2% 2011 Matthew Stafford 57.1% Georgia 2009 Josh McCown 51.2% SMU 2002 Carson Palmer 59.1% USC 2003 Kyle Orton 58.8% Purdue 2005 David Garrard 57.0% East Carolina 2002 Jay Cutler 57.2% Vanderbilt 2006 Matt Ryan 59.9% Boston College 2008 Brian Hoyer 55.8% Michigan State 2009 Derek Anderson 50.7% Oregon State 2005 Chad Henne 59.7% Michigan 2008 After looking back at the quarterbacks, I was surprised to find so many that were sub 60% since 1990. I was under the impression that there were only a handful since Brett Favre came out but there were at least 6-7 high quality starters in the group. Hopefully, this gives those stuck on Allen’s lower completion percentage a little more hope. And the positive thing for Allen is that he has some rare physical traits that can help him overcome the perceived inaccuracy issue. Sterling work, Thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racketmaster Posted May 7, 2018 Author Share Posted May 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, QCity said: People have used 60% solely because it's a round number. I agree, there really is no magic number. I thought this during the draft process when Allen was being ridiculed for his 56%. I was looking at the praise being thrown at Josh Rosen and thinking he is at 60%. There is a significant difference in those numbers but was it that much of a difference to bash one prospect (Allen) and praise another (Rosen) for his mechanics and accuracy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chosenone Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 (edited) Here are Russell Wilson's college stats! 54%, 59% and 58% his 3 yrs at NC State. 2008 NC State 150 275 1,955 17 1 54.5 133.9 116 394 3.4 4 2009 NC State 224 378 3,027 31 11 59.3 147.8 103 260 2.5 4 2010 NC State 308 527 3,563 28 14 58.4 127.5 143 435 3.0 9 2011 Wisconsin 225 309 3,175 33 4 72.8 191.8 79 338 4.3 6 Edited May 7, 2018 by Chosenone 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roundybout Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 25 minutes ago, racketmaster said: I agree. Both have rocket arms and have some good mobility. If you look at Stafford's NFL career, he was mostly a 60% passer during his first 5 years. The past 3 years he has been a 65% passer. For those who believe completion percentage equals accuracy, then his career shows that accuracy can be improved. He deosnt have to force it to Johnson anymore, so he has learned to open the field up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, racketmaster said: I agree that Allen's accuracy appears to be the biggest question that analysts and fans have about him as a prospect. Watching Allen play, I am less concerned about his accuracy and more concerned about his mechanics and footwork. He seems to miss more than he should on shorter passer, especially if he has to reset his feet. The two are cause and effect. Usually when a QB is accurate at times, and inaccurate at others it has to do with mechanics/footwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racketmaster Posted May 7, 2018 Author Share Posted May 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Chosenone said: Here are Russell Wilson's college stats! 54%, 59% and 58% his 3 yrs at NC State. 2008 NC State 150 275 1,955 17 1 54.5 133.9 116 394 3.4 4 2009 NC State 224 378 3,027 31 11 59.3 147.8 103 260 2.5 4 2010 NC State 308 527 3,563 28 14 58.4 127.5 143 435 3.0 9 2011 Wisconsin 225 309 3,175 33 4 72.8 191.8 79 338 4.3 6 I remember that huge jump in percentage. I wonder how much that had to do with the passing schemes they ran at NC State and Wisconsin? Maybe receiving weapons and coaching had some impact as well. In any case, had Wilson not transferred to Wisconsin he could have become another success story as a sub 60% passer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 20 minutes ago, QCity said: People have used 60% solely because it's a round number. I thought it came from Bill Parcells' 26-27-60 rule (26 starts, Wonderlic 27, 60% completion percentage) for drafting QB? I mean, it is a round number, but the reason it came to prominence has to do with a Sports Illustrated article some time back about Bill Parcells and his rules for drafting QB. Link to follow-up article: https://www.ganggreennation.com/2016/4/5/11365596/how-accurate-is-the-26-27-60-rule-for-drafting-quarterbacks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racketmaster Posted May 7, 2018 Author Share Posted May 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: The two are cause and effect. Usually when a QB is accurate at times, and inaccurate at others it has to do with mechanics/footwork. I'm no qb coach but believe this to be mostly true. However, I think there is first and foremost a natural arm accuracy that each individual has. By that I mean, if a player were to just stand still and try an hit objects at various distances, how accurate are they?. Then, the lower half comes into play and it is a significant part of being accurate, maybe more important than the natural arm accuracy part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seanbillsfan2206 Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 27 minutes ago, Magnum Force said: I thought the same thing but it said from 1990 to the present. Ahhh ok. Well he can be a honorable mention 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1st Ammendment NoMas Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 40 minutes ago, Juice_32 said: Stafford jumps out to me. I think he and Allen are similar in a lot of ways. Allen is better on the move probably. If JA ends up having a Stafford-like career I'd be happy. Right! When the last time a Bills QB has thrown for over 4500 yds and 30+ TD's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capco Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 (edited) 4 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I thought it came from Bill Parcells' 26-27-60 rule (26 starts, Wonderlic 27, 60% completion percentage) for drafting QB? If so, then the question is: why did Parcells choose 60%? Probably because it's a round number. Edited May 7, 2018 by Capco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Boy Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 I see 2(?!) SB wins out of this group. Not terribly encouraging ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr1 Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 a lot of those guys played when they let defensive backs get more physical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
racketmaster Posted May 7, 2018 Author Share Posted May 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, Buffalo Boy said: I see 2(?!) SB wins out of this group. Not terribly encouraging ? I guess. But the Manning brothers, Brady and Roethlisberger have won 11 of the last 17 Super Bowls. Not too many other qbs have had much of a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPS Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 If he had ONE more completion per game in his college career He would be at 60%.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Rev.Mattb74 ESQ. Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 56 minutes ago, Seanbillsfan2206 said: You forgot to add the greatest QB in Buffalo Bills history to this list..... Joe Dufek 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QCity Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 25 minutes ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: I thought it came from Bill Parcells' 26-27-60 rule (26 starts, Wonderlic 27, 60% completion percentage) for drafting QB? Parcells was different he had like 4 rules for drafting a QB (must have started 3 years, won so many games, etc). That 26-27-60 rule was made up by an SI reporter (https://www.si.com/more-sports/2010/07/08/qb-rule) and as far as I can tell he picked 60% because it was round. Higher completion % is obviously better but I don't see any statistical significance with that number. Allen's comp % is 4.7% less than Rosen's but people are acting like he can't hit the side of a barn. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ALLEN1QB Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 Wow very interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seanbillsfan2206 Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, The Rev.Mattb74 ESQ. said: Joe Dufek Dan manucci 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Rev.Mattb74 ESQ. Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 57 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said: I know high completion % doesn’t always equal great accuracy but there is some correlation sometimes Matt Stafford is a guy who had lower completion % in college but always threw a good ball. He didn’t magically become accurate, he already was and The stats finally translated Josh Allen isn’t the most accurate QB I have ever seen but he does throw some very good balls. His deep ball and mid range game are both very good Actually I have a theory backed up by no evidence. His arm could be so strong that while he just guns it on longer throws, on short throws he may try to take something off it so his receivers don't have to catch a bullet from 10 yards away, and he loses accuracy in the process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vincec Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 (edited) This list makes me feel a lot worse, not better. There aren’t many “franchise” QBs on that list. And if you throw out the guys before 2000, when QB completion percentages weren’t so inflated then there are basically none except for maybe Matt Ryan at 59.9%. Edited May 7, 2018 by vincec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 1 hour ago, racketmaster said: When discussing Josh Allen, inevitably his career college completion percentage (56.2%) comes up in the conversation. Most analysts seem to be in agreement that there are very few examples in recent history of quarterbacks who have had sub 60% completion percentage and still had NFL success. Favre and Stafford seem to be the most cited examples of the anomalies. Therefore, Allen will have to be an “outlier” in order to have any measure of NFL. Allen is thought to end up being the next Jake Locker or Kyle Boller. I tend to believe that completion percentage does not necessarily equal accuracy (many other factors come into play). But that discussion has been had many times before and I was just interested in seeing what other quarterbacks may be out there that had a sub 60% completion percentage and also a decent amount of NFL success. I went back to quarterbacks drafted 1990 and forward. I know the game has evolved since then and completion percentages tend to be much higher today because of the types of schemes teams tend to run at the college level. But I still think it was worth looking into especially since Allen has not run a gimmicky college offense but rather he has operated in a pro style passing offense where he has been asked to make a higher percentage of difficult downfield throws (more like what quarterbacks were asked to do in the 1980’s and 1990’s). Below is a list of other quarterbacks who have had at least a decent career and also had a less than 60% completion percentage in college. I know “decent” is subjective but I was looking at quarterbacks who have at least stuck around a long time as high end backups or at least had brief periods of solid success as a starter. This is not a complete list but I think it covers most if not all of the quality starters drafted from 1990 to the Present. Brett Favre 52.4% Southern Miss. 1990 Mark Brunell 52.0% Washington 1993 Kerry Collins 56.3% Penn State 1995 Drew Bledsoe 54.3% Washington State 1993 Brian Griese 59.5% Michigan 1998 Jeff George 58.8% Illinois 1990 Jake Plummer 55.4% Arizona State 1996 Jeff Garcia 56.8% San Jose State 1994 Donovan McNabb 58.4% Syracuse 1999 Neil O’Donnell 58.8% Maryland 1990 Trent Dilfer 59.1% Fresno State 1994 Trent Green 55.8% Indiana 1993 Jake Delhomme 52.6% Louisiana 1997 Matt Hasselbeck 55.6% Boston College 1998 Mike Vick 56.0% Va Tech 2000 Tyrod Taylor 57.2% Va Tech 2011 Colin Kaepenick 58.2% 2011 Matthew Stafford 57.1% Georgia 2009 Josh McCown 51.2% SMU 2002 Carson Palmer 59.1% USC 2003 Kyle Orton 58.8% Purdue 2005 David Garrard 57.0% East Carolina 2002 Jay Cutler 57.2% Vanderbilt 2006 Matt Ryan 59.9% Boston College 2008 Brian Hoyer 55.8% Michigan State 2009 Derek Anderson 50.7% Oregon State 2005 Chad Henne 59.7% Michigan 2008 After looking back at the quarterbacks, I was surprised to find so many that were sub 60% since 1990. I was under the impression that there were only a handful since Brett Favre came out but there were at least 6-7 high quality starters in the group. Hopefully, this gives those stuck on Allen’s lower completion percentage a little more hope. And the positive thing for Allen is that he has some rare physical traits that can help him overcome the perceived inaccuracy issue. Many of those played in old school offenses as did our QB which explains his lower than today's prospects percentage. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Brown Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 The most successful NFL QB taken in the draft since the NFL realignment in 2002 with a college completion percentage under 58% their final year of college was David Garrard. The odds are against Allen regardless of how you spin it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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