Wayne Arnold Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 (edited) 22 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: SBNation had a write-up here: https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons The analytical writers know the what, but have no idea how to explain the why. It looks to me as if they're making predictions based on numbers but completely ignoring context. They're comparing the completion percentage of a guy at Wyoming to a guy at Oklahoma, which is absolutely absurd. College stats are more about the offensive system than the quarterback. Edited May 3, 2018 by Wayne Arnold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sky Diver Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 There are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billspro Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Bangarang said: This is the part where we all try and convince ourselves that the numbers are flawed, or because Favre did it decades ago then so can Allen. The reality is that if Allen was drafted by the Jets then all the criticisms would be valid. But because he wears a blue jersey instead of green the sales pitch is on full power. Allen is a huge risk, no doubt. I had trouble evaluating him in the predraft process because he is the most talented QB I have ever seen. His 2017 tape was not good, but was also tough to evaluate because his WRs were not open and his line was brutal. Off of the tape I had him as the 6th ranked QB in this class. So I would not be shocked if he busts, but I would also not be surprised if he is a top 5 QB in the NFL. I don’t think there are any prospects comparable to him in the last 25 years. He will be an interesting case to see if someone can develop at the NFL level. It is rarely done, but if anyone is going to do it Allen will be the guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan4 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Just now, Kemp said: I had not heard that. Do you have a link concerning this? https://www.12up.com/posts/4792594-carson-wentz-is-only-an-eagle-because-of-analytics-and-the-browns http://www.theherdnow.com/radio/the-browns-missed-on-carson-wentz-because-analytics-cant-measure-franchise-qb-traits/ Also, I think its worth mentioning that Allen and Wentz had pretty similar college stats - https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/carson-wentz-1.html https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/josh-allen-7.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Arnold Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 11 minutes ago, Bangarang said: This is the part where we all try and convince ourselves that the numbers are flawed, or because Favre did it decades ago then so can Allen. The reality is that if Allen was drafted by the Jets then all the criticisms would be valid. But because he wears a blue jersey instead of green the sales pitch is on full power. You're so wise and impartial! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 2 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said: The analytical writers know the what, but have no idea how to explain the why. It looks to me as if they're making predictions based on numbers but completely ignoring context. They're comparing the completion percentage of a guy at Wyoming to a guy at Oklahoma, which is absolutely absurd. College stats are more about the offensive system than the quarterback. I agree. While I think the concept of analytics in football is still in its relative infancy and will be refined going forward to increase its predictive capacity, right now it's just a lot of numbers and not all of them are relevant, or mean what the people analyzing them think they do. A good example are those NFL NextGen stats that people are trying to draw conclusions from based on positional tracking monitors in players' pads. In time they will have synthesized that raw data into meaningful statistics, but they haven't figured it out yet which is why NextGen stats are IMO fairly useless in terms of predictive analysis. Football isn't a game that lends itself easily to quantification. It's so complex and interconnected that what's referred to these days by the stat guys as the 'eye test' (always in the pejorative) is probably still the functional equivalent of today's NFL analytics, although I expect that to change in the next 5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bangarang Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 1 minute ago, Wayne Arnold said: You're so wise and impartial! I have had my opinion of Allen for a little while now and literally the only thing that has happened is that we drafted him. There’s no new information since then that will force me to change that opinion. Once there is then I will. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsflyer12 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 30 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: SBNation had a write-up here: https://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2018/4/24/17271686/josh-allen-nfl-draft-2018-stats-analysis-comparisons I have posted this and a couple of other write-ups, not sure a single person has actually opened and read them. Was wondering the percentage of posters here like or believe in data and stats, looks like most don't care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Just now, Billsflyer12 said: I have posted this and a couple of other write-ups, not sure a single person has actually opened and read them. Was wondering the percentage of posters here like or believe in data and stats, looks like most don't care. It's sort of a cursory analysis of some stats that I'm not really sold on, but it's definitely worth a look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsflyer12 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 (edited) 19 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said: The analytical writers know the what, but have no idea how to explain the why. It looks to me as if they're making predictions based on numbers but completely ignoring context. They're comparing the completion percentage of a guy at Wyoming to a guy at Oklahoma, which is absolutely absurd. College stats are more about the offensive system than the quarterback. Is this Context? Good news is there are a couple of comparable that say it may work. Almost all say it won't. Edited May 3, 2018 by Billsflyer12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Arnold Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Bangarang said: I have had my opinion of Allen for a little while now and literally the only thing that has happened is that we drafted him. There’s no new information since then that will force me to change that opinion. Once there is then I will. That's great. But not everyone formed their opinion before the draft. Many wait until after the draft to study players. 2 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said: Is this Context? Good news is there are a couple of comparable that say it may work. Almost all say it won't. No, that's not context. Just more random numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Soda Popinski Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 I hope we draft Josh Allen again next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blacklabel Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 1 hour ago, cba fan said: Analytics does not to my knowledge factor in the fact Josh Allen throws the ball much further in the air and it effects his accuracy. Can't find it back but a link showed Allen throws the ball further than others in the air before it hits a receiver. He sounds like a downfield thrower and we have wanted that for years. You are correct in your assessment that he pushed the ball downfield more than any other QB that was coming up this year. The more low-percentage throws you attempt, the worse your completion percentage becomes. But at least his coaches were trusting him enough to even dial up those kinds of throws. Bills are looking to capitalize on the traditional traits he possesses and hope to minimize his chances to make mistakes. Wait and see, it's all we can do. Someone also mentioned simple similarities to Wentz and some snarkasm that since they are physically similar that Allen will end up like Wentz. I get it. Another similarity they share is that they both ran the same offense in college. Numbers only go so far. There are things that can't be measured that can tip the scales one way or the other. People pegged Johnny Manziel to be a franchise guy based off numbers but the things that couldn't be measured (his attitude and approach toward the game) were the determining factor in his lack of NFL success. Perhaps the things that can't be measured in Allen will be what pushes him to success. That's the hope anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MILFHUNTER#518 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 3 hours ago, Stank_Nasty said: we sure could use saviorpeterman and his "next gen" stats right now. He is "quite concerned" recording minutes in a high level board meeting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 47 minutes ago, Billsflyer12 said: Is this Context? Good news is there are a couple of comparable that say it may work. Almost all say it won't. Looks exactly like Flacco. I'd take that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Looks exactly like Flacco. I'd take that. A more mobile Flacco was one of the comps I arrived at. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stank_Nasty Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Looks exactly like Flacco. I'd take that. with the exception of a 4 game stretch in 2012 flacco has had an extremely average career that has heavily relied on his surrounding team being superb to win games.... I get that he won that super bowl but if allen turns out to be that sort of qb we better pray to god all the other units of our team are clicking on ALL cylinders at ALL times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. K Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Wow. It really looks, on paper, that Allen is headed for bust territory. It's worrying that whenever people start discussing him, the arguments in his favor sound increasingly desperate. Hope is not a plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 9 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said: with the exception of a 4 game stretch in 2012 flacco has had an extremely average career that has heavily relied on his surrounding team being superb to win games.... I get that he won that super bowl but if allen turns out to be that sort of qb we better pray to god all the other units of our team are clicking on ALL cylinders at ALL times. He's not a world beater but for me you aren't giving him enough credit here. Flacco's never had much to rely on as far as weapons go, I think the average age of his #1 wideout over the course of his career is something pretty ridiculous, and the Ravens' philosophy has been run-heavy for some time now. I'd be very satisfied if we peg Allen to Flacco with upside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Arnold Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 15 minutes ago, Dr. K said: Wow. It really looks, on paper, that Allen is headed for bust territory. It's worrying that whenever people start discussing him, the arguments in his favor sound increasingly desperate. Hope is not a plan. Amazing arm talent, world-class athleticism and great character and work ethic sounds increasingly desperate? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsflyer12 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 As a guy whose mind is wired for data and numbers, I certainly appreciate that not all minds think the same way. There are times I wish my mind didn't. Maybe the best example I can think of is buying a house. You find a house you love, most people then look at price, comps, Sq Ft, school rankings and many others pieces of data that paints a picture. At end of the day some use that data to form a risk analysis that tells them weather it is a smart investment. Others will just look at the house they love and say who cares, we can fix the house up and help fix up the neighborhood, we can make it better. I guess neither is right and wrong. I prefer to use data, to form a picture that increases my probability of success. It is not 100%, like any data there are outliers, I hope Josh Allen is one of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stank_Nasty Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 7 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: He's not a world beater but for me you aren't giving him enough credit here. Flacco's never had much to rely on as far as weapons go, I think the average age of his #1 wideout over the course of his career is something pretty ridiculous, and the Ravens' philosophy has been run-heavy for some time now. I'd be very satisfied if we peg Allen to Flacco with upside. in flacco's ten years he's averaged 3500 yds, 20 td and 13 int a season with a career 84 rating..... in todays nfl if that's what we get out of allen then we better pray we have a top 5 defense and run game every year. flacco has been extremely average with the luxury of some consistently awesome defenses over his career. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 3 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said: in flacco's ten years he's averaged 3500 yds, 20 td and 13 int a season with a career 84 rating..... in todays nfl if that's what we get out of allen then we better pray we have a top 5 defense and run game every year. flacco has been extremely average with the luxury of some consistently awesome defenses over his career. Yes, those are his numbers. I've also watched him play quite a bit and I'm saying he's better than you're giving him credit for. He hasn't had much to work with over the course of his career. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sky Diver Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 What does the Ouija board have to say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 36 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said: A more mobile Flacco was one of the comps I arrived at. The issue with Flacco is sometime over the last 2-3 seasons he stopped trusting his protection and got nervous in the pocket. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stanley Lombardi Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 Analytics is what Pro Football Focus does: You watch a game and think someone played great, but analytics says they were bad. Then you watch a game and think someone played bad, but analytics says they performed well. Analytics is the quack science which teaches us how to doubt our lyin' eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mat68 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 3 hours ago, Fadingpain said: I just started a thread on this topic; listen to Eric Galko from yesterday on WGR-550. Maybe that was what you were thinking of. For example, since 1999, no college QB with fewer than 30 starts and a completion % in college below 60% has ever amounted to jack at the NFL level. Allen had 27 starts. Completion percentage was 56.2% for his career. There are mathematical models for predicting college QB success in the NFL. The people who actually study that stuff/compute that stuff/know of that stuff almost universally do not think Allen will amount to anything in the NFL. The people who are prone to ignoring it are the people who are ignorant of it to begin with, or place little value in it, i.e., ex football players. Allen COULD be a success, of course, but the data/historical record predicts he will not be successful. He's an unbelievably high risk/reward pick. 6th rounder and one of the greatest statistical anomalies in sports history. You basing your draft strategy off crazy 1 in 10 million lighting strikes? Let me know how that works out for you. Much smarter, more predictable, and more reliable to go where the data leads you. The problem is their are outliers. Guys with crazy arm talent breaks alot of those constructs. Stafford, Cutler, Newton, Marino, and Farve are all guys with crazy natural abilities who all fall out of those peremiters. Completion % is one aspect of the overall analytic analysis. Allen falls to Farve and Marino in thats aspect. Now here is where party lines form. You cant compare a player in 2018 to a player in 1992 and 83. Allen is closer to those players in college systems, supporting casts, and development. If you want to dive deep into the analytics. Allen was one of the best prospect when throwing from a clean pocket. He also saw the least amounts of them. Production wise, Allen had the highest percent of air yardage. Over 60% of his yards were through the air. In comparison mayfield was 39%. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stank_Nasty Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 (edited) On 5/3/2018 at 5:38 PM, GoBills808 said: Yes, those are his numbers. I've also watched him play quite a bit and I'm saying he's better than you're giving him credit for. He hasn't had much to work with over the course of his career. agree to disagree I guess.... I've watched him play plenty and saw a middling qb that could make some timely clutch throws on occasion but usually didn't win if he didn't have his defense clicking on all cylinders. i'm not big on that going forward if that's what we are getting. EDIT: This convo here is about flacco. Edited May 11, 2018 by Stank_Nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 18 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: The issue with Flacco is sometime over the last 2-3 seasons he stopped trusting his protection and got nervous in the pocket. Well, and he's always been a better playoff QB than regular season QB. More mobile Flacco is my 'realistic expectation' of Josh Allen. If that's what I get I'm not upset. If he's better that's great! If he's not then he's a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrtonHearsaWho Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 5 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said: agree to disagree I guess.... I've watched him play plenty and saw a middling qb that could make some timely clutch throws on occasion but usually didn't win if he didn't have his defense clicking on all cylinders. i'm not big on that going forward if that's what we are getting. I'm with you. He as entirely too many games that he looks absolutely awful. I know you can't take away the four game playoff stretch (should have been two games if Denver could just not give up a 70 yard TD)...but IF you could, then who is he? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 39 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Yes, those are his numbers. I've also watched him play quite a bit and I'm saying he's better than you're giving him credit for. He hasn't had much to work with over the course of his career. Flacco is not a positive comparison. Ravens fans despise him and his ridiculous contract. He caught fire at exactly the right time which is cool and all but I'm aiming for more. They just traded back into the 1st round for a QB! They are trying to do better there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Arnold Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 The 4:00 minute mark is the epitome of Josh Allen's 2017 season at Wyoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 6 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Flacco is not a positive comparison. Ravens fans despise him and his ridiculous contract. He caught fire at exactly the right time which is cool and all but I'm aiming for more. They just traded back into the 1st round for a QB! They are trying to do better there. Sure. He's also 33 and coming off injury concerns. I don't dispute that you should be looking for better, but if you have him as Allen's baseline I think it's a positive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stank_Nasty Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 (edited) 50 minutes ago, Wayne Arnold said: Took over a 2-10 team and led Wyoming to back-to-back 8 wins seasons for the first time in 20 years and just the sixth time in the history of the 126 year old program. Middling, tho. uh... dude. 808 and I were discussing flacco... i'm cool with allen. 37 minutes ago, HappyDays said: Flacco is not a positive comparison. Ravens fans despise him and his ridiculous contract. He caught fire at exactly the right time which is cool and all but I'm aiming for more. They just traded back into the 1st round for a QB! They are trying to do better there. seriously.... did anyone actually think that was a good deal? I feel like even ozzie newsome was like "crap. this guy just screwed around and won us a super bowl and I know he's not worth this sort of money but i'll look like a complete jerk if I don't pay him" 29 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: Sure. He's also 33 and coming off injury concerns. I don't dispute that you should be looking for better, but if you have him as Allen's baseline I think it's a positive. I get you on the bolded. fair enough.... and honestly he had some nice years from like 2009-2012. but I would even argue his best seasons weren't even top ten type of years. the guy got really really really lucky against Denver when Rahim moore went full pop warner on a horribly thrown pass back in 2012. Edited May 3, 2018 by Stank_Nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wayne Arnold Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 12 minutes ago, Stank_Nasty said: uh... dude. 808 and I were discussing flacco... i'm cool with allen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joevan Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 I will take strong, big, smart over weaker, smaller dumber players. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 4 hours ago, Fadingpain said: For example, since 1999, no college QB with fewer than 30 starts and a completion % in college below 60% has ever amounted to jack at the NFL level. (...) There are mathematical models for predicting college QB success in the NFL. The people who actually study that stuff/compute that stuff/know of that stuff almost universally do not think Allen will amount to anything in the NFL. The people who are prone to ignoring it are the people who are ignorant of it to begin with, or place little value in it, i.e., ex football players. 4 hours ago, TigerJ said: It's statistical analysis. Of course, it's a lot more detailed than college completion average, but it's still an analysis of a current player based on his college statistics as compared with the college statistics of past QBs. That is what gives you the overwhelming odds that Allen will bust. Hokay, I'll try this on. What all these groups of number cruncher are doing, at heart, is trying to build a predictive model for NFL QB success. And I have my "number cruncher" DNA, so I appreciate what they're trying to do. BUT, the very first thing you have to do when you're looking at a predictive model, is ensure that the situation where you apply your model, matches the test dataset from which you derived it. A simple example would be clinical trials for the safety of a new medicine conducted exclusively on young men 18-25 y.o., but now you want to apply these results to children <12, women, and men >50. The safety results may or may not be valid in these groups, because they have some significant metabolic differences and they weren't part of the dataset you modeled from. So here's the $21,481,462 question: does Josh Allen in fact match the test dataset from which all these analytics on QB success or failure were derived? 3 hours ago, billspro said: Allen is a huge risk, no doubt. I had trouble evaluating him in the predraft process because he is the most talented QB I have ever seen. His 2017 tape was not good, but was also tough to evaluate because his WRs were not open and his line was brutal. Off of the tape I had him as the 6th ranked QB in this class. So I would not be shocked if he busts, but I would also not be surprised if he is a top 5 QB in the NFL. I don’t think there are any prospects comparable to him in the last 25 years. He will be an interesting case to see if someone can develop at the NFL level. It is rarely done, but if anyone is going to do it Allen will be the guy. And this captures the essence of my point. If in fact, the talent level of the conference he played in, the offense his team used, the minimal amount of QB coaching he's had so far, etc etc mean he's outside the model, the model predictions are relatively meaningless. Maybe Beane and the coaches did a deep dive and narrowed the dataset down and did their own predictive model that says Or maybe they didn't. Maybe they fell in love with his "face of the franchise" blue-collar well-spoken persona and howitzer arm, and said "damn the statistics". In the latter case of course, I would like to play poker with Brandon Beane. Which is not a good thing, because a GM should be master of playing the odds. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cba fan Posted May 3, 2018 Share Posted May 3, 2018 (edited) 6 hours ago, Billsflyer12 said: If true, he is terrible at it. That shows how far the play went. NOT how far the QB threw the ball in the air. My point is Allen throws the ball much much further in the air. Also the following graph taken off same site your comp % was on shows Rosen and Allen are about the same. Rosen does better on 4 yrd passes and that is about it. Edited May 4, 2018 by cba fan add 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1st&ten Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 6 hours ago, Soda Popinski said: I'll just defer to this FO knowing a lot more about this than I ever will. Daboll was with the Patriots and Alabama, he's worked under Saban/BB. Beane and McDermott have had success before through drafting. Last year's draft was pretty good considering we got a LT in the 2nd round, got a runner up candidate for DROY and hopefully a WR who can make a major contribution this season. I love the Edmunds/Phillips picks. In fact i love pretty much every pick other than Allen, so I think the issue is me not knowing more than them picking the wrong guy. I remember you from the former Buffalo Bills board. Welcome aboard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billspro Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 (edited) 2 hours ago, Hapless Bills Fan said: Hokay, I'll try this on. What all these groups of number cruncher are doing, at heart, is trying to build a predictive model for NFL QB success. And I have my "number cruncher" DNA, so I appreciate what they're trying to do. BUT, the very first thing you have to do when you're looking at a predictive model, is ensure that the situation where you apply your model, matches the test dataset from which you derived it. A simple example would be clinical trials for the safety of a new medicine conducted exclusively on young men 18-25 y.o., but now you want to apply these results to children <12, women, and men >50. The safety results may or may not be valid in these groups, because they have some significant metabolic differences and they weren't part of the dataset you modeled from. So here's the $21,481,462 question: does Josh Allen in fact match the test dataset from which all these analytics on QB success or failure were derived? And this captures the essence of my point. If in fact, the talent level of the conference he played in, the offense his team used, the minimal amount of QB coaching he's had so far, etc etc mean he's outside the model, the model predictions are relatively meaningless. Maybe Beane and the coaches did a deep dive and narrowed the dataset down and did their own predictive model that says Or maybe they didn't. Maybe they fell in love with his "face of the franchise" blue-collar well-spoken persona and howitzer arm, and said "damn the statistics". In the latter case of course, I would like to play poker with Brandon Beane. Which is not a good thing, because a GM should be master of playing the odds. Exactly let’s hope we have that special player that is an outlier. That is all we can do at this point. Edited May 4, 2018 by billspro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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