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LAST "Why Josh Allen is a Huge Bust Waiting To Happen" Thread!!


Domdab99

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Why does this QB not have a funny nickname. I mean some one came up with Lolmar for Lamar yet thus guy hasn't gotten one yet. I'm not convinced you guys don't like Allen..

 

Josh Faillen? I dunno you can do better.

Edited by Lfod
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Unfortunately for Allen there was too much time between the combine/pro day workouts and the draft. He wows people on the field but then after the buzz dies you start thinking logically about it and there's such a slim chance that he is successful that it makes him not worth the risk. I think if the draft was the day after the combine he would have gone #1

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4 hours ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Lamar Jackson: NO AGENT 

- He's inconsistent

- He's inaccurate

- Strong arm and athletic

- Can't make progressions

 

Maybe a WR

 

Josh Allen: HAS AGENT

- He's inconsistent

- He's inaccurate

- Strong arm and athletic

- Can't make progressions

 

Biggest upside to anyone in the draft. 

 

There's a reason for that 3% being a value. The way they are presented in the media is the biggest case in point I've ever seen. They have the same flaws by and large...no one is saying Allen would be smart to consider TE.

 

Honestly if I was forced to choose I'd have to pick Jackson as he's at the very least way more of an athlete. Way more dangerous a playmaker. And I really hope we don't end up with Jackson.

 

Yes yes yes yes yes!!!

 

Notice how incredibly "under the radar" Jackson is. I don't want to make any predictions, but seeing Allen fall to 20 something and Jackson go in the top 10 is very much what I believe should happen.

3 hours ago, JaCrispy said:

There will be so many Bills fans booing and other team’s fans laughing in Dallas.

 

I think I would rather have Mason Rudolph at 12 than Josh Allen at 12.

 

I would too.

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So Peter King is quoted as saying that Allen did poorly when under pressure? But that's a very strategic way to cut and paste what's a complex and interesting point and isolate the most negative part. 

 

Here's a way to do the opposite. Same source material.

 

"When NFL teams have scouted Allen, they’ve noticed how Allen seemed to be under pressure far more than any of the other five first-round candidates ... And, as one official from a quarterback-needy team told me, how difficult it was to scout him because he had so many free rushers coming at him consistently."

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/18/josh-allen-draft-cleveland-browns-mmqb-peter-king

 

See what I did there? Picked out the most positive part and threw away the rest, the exact opposite of what happened in the OP.

 

Here's the whole thing, unexpurgated. There's positive and negative, both.

 

 

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

"It’s been reported far and wide that Josh Allen of Wyoming could be the first overall pick, to Cleveland. The Browns like him. With ex-Bill Tyrod Taylor in the house, they seem set on whoever they draft having 2018 as an NFL redshirt year, which is probably the smart way to go for a franchise that has rushed too many passers, from Tim Couch to DeShone Kizer, into action. Allen, it would seem, would desperately need that redshirt year.

"When NFL teams have scouted Allen, they’ve noticed how Allen seemed to be under pressure far more than any of the other five first-round candidates. And they’ve noticed how poorly he responded to that pressure. It’s not just the 56.3 career completion percentage that bothers teams; it’s how he has responded to pressure. And, as one official from a quarterback-needy team told me, how difficult it was to scout him because he had so many free rushers coming at him consistently.

"So I asked analytics service Pro Football Focus, which also studies college players in preparation for the draft, to do a workup on whether Allen indeed was pressured significantly more than the other quarterbacks in the draft, and how he performed under pressure. The answers were rather startling.

"Allen under pressure: Of the 47 draft-eligible quarterbacks with 175 or more dropbacks in 2017, PFF found that Allen was the fifth-most-pressured quarterback, at 41 percent of his pass drops. Of the other top prospects, Lamar Jackson was pressured 36 percent of the time, Sam Darnold 31 percent, Josh Rosen 29 percent, Baker Mayfield 28 percent and Rudolph 23 percent. Clearly, Allen’s performance should have been affected by pressure more than the other quarterbacks.

"Allen’s performance under pressure: not good. According to Pro Football Focus numbers, you can see Allen struggles against pressure. Look at Allen versus the field in NCAA passer rating (more liberal than the NFL rating, but for comparison sake, I’m using the NCAA standard) to see the comparison: 

 

image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fcdn-s3.si.com%2F
 

"Allen is a dedicated guy scouts and coaches and GMs have grown to love in the pre-draft process. A California farm kid who grew up working the land before he ever had a thought of being a big-time quarterback, he knows the value of hard work. There are some scouts and coaches who look at Allen and see Ben Roethlisberger, a tree trunk of a guy with a big arm and athletic skills. All that is good.

"But there’s the reality of Allen’s rawness too. These numbers show it. He has difficulty taking the snap, knowing his alternatives depending on the rush he faces, and executing successfully. That’s not going to get fixed in one training camp. Whoever picks Allen, he’s going to need a strong, unwavering, patient plan to get him ready for opening day 2019. He might progress faster than that, but let’s say Cleveland picks him. The Browns aren’t winning the Super Bowl this year. Isn’t it in their best interests to tutor Allen with smart football people, to give him consistent chances in practices through the season? Training. Coaching. Learning. A few quarterbacks in our lifetime—David Carr most notably—have left football before their time because they played too much too soon. Let Allen’s college numbers at Wyoming, and football history, be a lesson to the team that chooses him to be its quarterback of the future."

https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/04/18/josh-allen-draft-cleveland-browns-mmqb-peter-king

 

----------------------------------------------------------------------

 

 

 

And also King said this in his weekly MMQB column this week.

 

"• The final word on the quarterbacks. I asked one longtime and well-connected scout about what he’s hearing regarding the order of top quarterbacks in this draft. In other words, if teams with a quarterback need could show their boards, what order would they go in? “Allen one, very slightly ahead of Darnold. Then Mayfield. But the people who like Mayfield love Mayfield.” Watch for Arizona trading up on Mayfield if he gets past the Jets and Broncos."

 

 

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11 hours ago, Bangarang said:

The signs are all there. People are going to get fired for putting their eggs in that basket.

 

Just reeks of arrogance that he'll be taken so high. He's shown nothing to justify he'll be even replacement level at the next level. Nice kid and all but I can't believe he's rated this highly.

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10 hours ago, Lfod said:

Why does this QB not have a funny nickname. I mean some one came up with Lolmar for Lamar yet thus guy hasn't gotten one yet. I'm not convinced you guys don't like Allen..

 

Josh Faillen? I dunno you can do better.

Josh Allennanated. 

 

pronounced like alienated

Edited by cba fan
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12 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

 You're playing and you think everything is going fine. Then one thing goes wrong. And then another. And another. You try to fight back, but the harder you fight, the deeper you sink. Until you can't move... you can't breathe... because you're in over your head. Like quicksand.

U tell em Falco!

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Allen has two years of college experience against the following teams in his league.  (Their 2016-2017 scheudle)  Do you think that Ohio State would be scared of this schedule?

 

September
Sat. 3 Los Medanos   L, 21-14 Final
Sat. 10 at Mendocino   L, 52-39 Final
Sat. 17 Redwoods   L, 26-22 Final
Sat. 24 at Hartnell *   L, 21-19 Final
 
October
Sat. 1 at Fresno NCFC Crossover Game L, 58-7 Final
Sat. 15 Gavilan *   L, 21-7 Final
Sat. 22 at Merced *   L, 51-0 Final
Sat. 29 Cabrillo *   W, 49-16 Final
 
November
Sat. 5 at West Hills Coalinga *   L, 34-7 Final
Sat. 12

Monterey

 

20 hours ago, Mat68 said:

I have seen Allen make every NFL throw needed.  At his best Allen already does everything you need from a Qb in the NFL.  In College teams usually win by out athleting the other team.  Wyoming did not have the better roster in any game they played in 2017.  He turned around a perenial buttom feeder school and won the most games in 2 years then the school has had in 30 years.  I watch him and I see young Farve.  He could be a bust.  So could any of them.  Give me the guy with the most abilty.  I feel working on his footwork sures up some of his mis fires, and working in a modern offense will grant him the easy completions he went without in college.  As a Bills fan, as much as Allen intrigues me personally, I think Rosen should be the guy because he seems the most ready now.  Outside of Rosen they all have a fair level of molding and coaching.

What was his QB rating against top 50 teams?  

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5 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Allen has two years of college experience against the following teams in his league.  (Their 2016-2017 scheudle)  Do you think that Ohio State would be scared of this schedule?

 

September
Sat. 3 Los Medanos   L, 21-14 Final
Sat. 10 at Mendocino   L, 52-39 Final
Sat. 17 Redwoods   L, 26-22 Final
Sat. 24 at Hartnell *   L, 21-19 Final
 
October
Sat. 1 at Fresno NCFC Crossover Game L, 58-7 Final
Sat. 15 Gavilan *   L, 21-7 Final
Sat. 22 at Merced *   L, 51-0 Final
Sat. 29 Cabrillo *   W, 49-16 Final
 
November
Sat. 5 at West Hills Coalinga *   L, 34-7 Final
Sat. 12

Monterey

 

What was his QB rating against top 50 teams?  

Idk what any of this is or means.  

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2 hours ago, Domdab99 said:

 

Given how hard it is to find a Franchise QB in the NFL, it's unfathomable to me how anyone could think that a mediocre QB from the Mountain West Conference has what it takes to make it as an elite player in the NFL. 

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22 hours ago, Awwufelloff said:

Why do NFL teams get so caught up in QBs who can throw it far? How often do you really bomb it each game? 1-2 times? The top 3 QBS the last decade are not athletic at all. Give me the accurate passer 10/10 times. 

This is why I like Luke Falk so much, I see him being a slightly better version on Cousins.

Please stay away from Jackson and Allen at all costs if you like your GM job.

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I am trying to mentally and emotionally prepare myself for the Bills to draft Josh Allen.

To be honest, the whole thing makes me feel queasy. All of my faith in the credibility and competence of McBeane will be seriously damaged if they pick this kid. There is just NOTHING other than "strong arm and movement skills" to suggest Allen will be worth a darn. And we Bills fans have seen that movie twice already with JP and EJ. 

I'm really, really hoping the Bills find a way to get Mayfield/Rosen/Darnold. 

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9 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Idk what any of this is or means.  

Allen played his first two years of college at Reedly Community College  and this was his record one of those years.  Then he sent letters to 350 NCAA division I teams and got two replies. He then played two years at Wyoming, which was the 7th ranked conference in the NCAA. They played teams mainly in the 100's to 200's and did so-so.  His senior year they beat Gardner-Webb 27-0.  They did play two top 50 teams that year Oregon and Iowa- his QB rating in those games was 6 and 30. ......   Sorry, one of the criteria of most people is that a high candidate should have 3-4 years of success against top notch competition to show they can do it year after year.   Trying to extrapolate from such a low level to the pros is risky and IMO, foolish.  But he does look good in shorts.   Has he ever tried to pass against DB who have the closing speed of the NFL guys?  Nope,  he played 3 or 4 levels below that.

8 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Thats not Wyomings schedule

It is the schedule of the junior college where he played two years.

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2 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Allen played his first two years of college at Reedly Community College  and this was his record one of those years.  Then he sent letters to 350 NCAA division I teams and got two replies. He then played two years at Wyoming, which was the 7th ranked conference in the NCAA. They played teams mainly in the 100's to 200's and did so-so.  His senior year they beat Gardner-Webb 27-0.  They did play two top 50 teams that year Oregon and Iowa- his QB rating in those games was 6 and 30. ......   Sorry, one of the criteria of most people is that a high candidate should have 3-4 years of success against top notch competition to show they can do it year after year.   Trying to extrapolate from such a low level to the pros is risky and IMO, foolish.  But he does look good in shorts.   Has he ever tried to pass against DB who have the closing speed of the NFL guys?  Nope,  he played 3 or 4 levels below that.

It is the schedule of the junior college where he played two years.

I was confusec with the 2016-2017 aspect.  I see why he is risky.  I understand why some people would risk picking him.  He is a late bloomer without alot of refinement.  My prefrence for Buffalo is Rosen.  Outside of Rosen I would go Allen.  His upside is too great.  You have professional coaches, coach him to reach his potential.  

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3 hours ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

Allen played his first two years of college at Reedly Community College  and this was his record one of those years.  Then he sent letters to 350 NCAA division I teams and got two replies. He then played two years at Wyoming, which was the 7th ranked conference in the NCAA. They played teams mainly in the 100's to 200's and did so-so.  His senior year they beat Gardner-Webb 27-0.  They did play two top 50 teams that year Oregon and Iowa- his QB rating in those games was 6 and 30. ......   Sorry, one of the criteria of most people is that a high candidate should have 3-4 years of success against top notch competition to show they can do it year after year.   Trying to extrapolate from such a low level to the pros is risky and IMO, foolish.  But he does look good in shorts.   Has he ever tried to pass against DB who have the closing speed of the NFL guys?  Nope,  he played 3 or 4 levels below that.

It is the schedule of the junior college where he played two years.

 

The Josh Allen projection is similar to when players used to come into the NBA straight out of high school. 

 

Didn't matter if the guy wouldn't hit a free throw, if he was 6'10 or taller, with decent athleticism and some eye hand coordination, someone would pick those guys in the Lottery at the top of the 1st round under the hope that they'll learn how to shoot and defend, and fill out their lanky frame. 

 

Allen is the same thing. Scouts see a 6'5, 235 "specimen" of a QB and they put all his major flaws aside under the premise they can fix him and 3-4 years down the road he'll be a decent player.

 

The problem is in the NBA, teams can afford to stash guys on the bench for 2-3 years before giving them minutes. In the NFL, as a top 10 pick, recent history says he'll get no more than 1 year to sit and learn on the bench, meaning he won't have adequate time to actually correct all his fatal flaws and the end result will likely be a disaster (as it has been for every prospect like Allen picked over the past 15 years; Akili Smith, Kyle Boller, Josh Freeman, Jake Locker, Blaine Gabbert, EJ Manuel, etc). 

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I’m going straight to the message board to whatever team drafts Allen to watch the melt. Except this one, I may leave for 6 months to avoid the melt.

 

Is there a fan base out there this morning saying “Man, I hope we get Josh Allen”. It seems everyone has been “anyone but Josh Allen” since January.  

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Ugh, just.. ugh. 

 

For the love of God, can we please get a QB that doesn't stand in the pocket for what feels like 5 minutes, only to get sacked or forced into a bad throw, only to have them show a replay of a guy running open?

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17 minutes ago, elroy16 said:

 

 

 

Ugh, just.. ugh. 

 

For the love of God, can we please get a QB that doesn't stand in the pocket for what feels like 5 minutes, only to get sacked or forced into a bad throw, only to have them show a replay of a guy running open?

Rodgers leads the league almost every year same with Russell Wilson neither is from the fantastic lines they play behind.  Allen was also pressured the most and Mayfiled was pressured the least this is a tad bit misleading.  

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4 hours ago, Mat68 said:

Rodgers leads the league almost every year same with Russell Wilson neither is from the fantastic lines they play behind.  Allen was also pressured the most and Mayfiled was pressured the least this is a tad bit misleading.  

 

If Allen was pressured the most, shouldn't his time to throw be on the lower end? 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, elroy16 said:

 

If Allen was pressured the most, shouldn't his time to throw be on the lower end? 

 

 

His mobility and ability to shed would be sacks inflated his numbers.  Jackson is on the high side to.  Difference when Jackson broke contain he would get up field with no throw.  The spread qbs are always the quickest to get the ball out.

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  • 2 months later...
On ‎4‎/‎24‎/‎2018 at 10:46 PM, Lfod said:

Why does this QB not have a funny nickname. I mean some one came up with Lolmar for Lamar yet thus guy hasn't gotten one yet. I'm not convinced you guys don't like Allen..

 

Josh Faillen? I dunno you can do better.

Josh Alien.

 

Do we really know if that arm in from here?

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What on Earth do these numbers mean. How is Lamar Jackson possibly that low. It could literally be higher numbers are better or lower numbers.. it's just a list of stud NFL QBs and college QBs with Allen smack dab in the middle

 

Wait a second.. WHO BUMPED THIS AND WHY..  WHY??

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7 hours ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

What on Earth do these numbers mean. How is Lamar Jackson possibly that low. It could literally be higher numbers are better or lower numbers.. it's just a list of stud NFL QBs and college QBs with Allen smack dab in the middle

 

Wait a second.. WHO BUMPED THIS AND WHY..  WHY??

 

.

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On 4/26/2018 at 9:27 AM, elroy16 said:

 

 

 

Ugh, just.. ugh. 

 

For the love of God, can we please get a QB that doesn't stand in the pocket for what feels like 5 minutes, only to get sacked or forced into a bad throw, only to have them show a replay of a guy running open?

 

PFT can't even get their own story straight.  Prior to the draft, they had Mayfield ranked last among draft-eligible QBs in "average time to throw" with over 3.1 seconds.

 

This is why I hate PFF sometimes.

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7 hours ago, PetermanThrew5Picks said:

Wasn't me Augie. You can't call an hour long bump when the thread was resurrected yesterday after 2 months. That's a bump.

 

No, it wasn’t.  I just loved your question! And of course the bump came from the OP. 

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