Former Bills OC has Final Exam grades for top 6 QBs

[racketmaster]

I found this series interesting as an experienced offensive coach (formerly of the Bills) gave a pretty detailed analysis/grade of the top quarterbacks in this year’s draft. Obviously, Darnold and Allen are his top quarterbacks but their reports have yet to be released. I copied in the 4 reports that have been released thus far. 

Here is the link to the series on NFL Draft Bible site:

http://nfldraftbible.com/qb-final-exam-with-steve-fairchild/

 

Here is the link to the Sam Darnold scouting report. 

http://nfldraftbible.com/sam-darnold-final-exam-with-steve-fairchild/ 

 

Here is the scouting report on Allen, Fairchild’s top qb.

http://nfldraftbible.com/josh-allen-final-exam-with-steve-fairchild/

 

Final rankings:

1) Allen - (122) A top pick in the draft

2) Darnold (121) A top 5 pick

3) Rosen (120.5) Early first round

4) Rudolph (119) First round 

5) Mayfield (117.5) 2nd round

6) Jackson (112.5) 2nd round

Edited April 19, 2018 by racketmaster
Added Allen report

[Heavy Kevi]

That's a hell of alot of good information. I wonder where Darnold and Allen fall on this "scale".

 

I surely don't envy Beane and co. They have to pick one of these guys and hope/surmise he is the right one (or one of the right ones).

 

I like my position better. I get to take ownership and talk smack to opposing fans if he works out, but also get to slam Beane if they take the wrong one and he busts.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

It actually makes me feel better. I've never been a particularly hard Darnold or Allen pusher, and if we simply can't budge, I am now more ok with Rudolph at 12.

[racketmaster]

Just now, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

It actually makes me feel better. I've never been a particularly hard Darnold or Allen pusher, and if we simply can't budge, I am now more ok with Rudolph at 12.

I’m not sure if Fairchild has Darnold or Allen #1. Personally, I have Darnold my top qb and would not mind the Bills taking a run at him, even if it means giving up a significant amount of assets. At his age, Darnold could easily be a Bill for the next 15-16 years. That’s a long time to build around him. 

 

But if that can’t happen, I’m totally fine waiting on Rudolph and using the rest of our picks to fill in the many holes. I think Rudolph could be one of the top qbs from this class when it is all said and done. 

[C.Biscuit97]

This is a great breakdown.  I trust this information a lot more than Kiper or McShay.  

 

Also, hot take:  Fairchild was one of the better OCs of the drought. The fact he made JP Losman look like something like a nfl qb for a year is amazing.

[Heavy Kevi]

3 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

It actually makes me feel better. I've never been a particularly hard Darnold or Allen pusher, and if we simply can't budge, I am now more ok with Rudolph at 12.

 

I have been paying attention to all the Rudolph hype lately, and I must adm8t to being sucked in. I was fully on board with taking him at 12 thinking we couod keep all of our picks...

 

Then I read the analysis from before prodays and the combine. Now I don't want him in the first at all. I am EXTREMELY leery of guys who get moved up the draft board significantly long after they play their last game. Tape should drive draft position, not hype from the talking heads.

 

Sure, he could end up being the best of the bunch, and I'm still "ok" with him later on, but I see warning flags based on his clausen-esque post combine rise.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

I actually remember our resident Draft master and training camp watcher Astrobot had Ruldoph at 21 as one of his earlier picks.

 

Now, mind you, I still would prefer that we somehow get up into the top 5, but if we take him at 12 (or better, at 22) I am ok with that.

2 minutes ago, Shotgunner said:

 

I have been paying attention to all the Rudolph hype lately, and I must adm8t to being sucked in. I was fully on board with taking him at 12 thinking we couod keep all of our picks...

 

Then I read the analysis from before prodays and the combine. Now I don't want him in the first at all. I am EXTREMELY leery of guys who get moved up the draft board significantly long after they play their last game. Tape should drive draft position, not hype from the talking heads.

 

Sure, he could end up being the best of the bunch, and I'm still "ok" with him later on, but I see warning flags based on his clausen-esque post combine rise.

 

[Magox]

He seems to like Rudolph.

[C.Biscuit97]

2 minutes ago, Magox said:

He seems to like Rudolph.

I loved Randolph last year but I guess the knock on him is he threw to wide open wrs and wasn’t great in tight window nfl throws.  He checks a lot of boxes though but he is clearly a fallback option if you don’t get a guy you really want.

[Mojo44]

This is a very good read and Fairchild seems  to be very diligent and detailed in his assessments.But it keeps the “what quarterback will the Bills draft” roller coaster going for me. Now I’m starting to like Rudolph again! Amazing!

[Magox]

Just now, C.Biscuit97 said:

I loved Randolph last year but I guess the knock on him is he threw to wide open wrs and wasn’t great in tight window nfl throws.  He checks a lot of boxes though but he is clearly a fallback option if you don’t get a guy you really want.

 

Seems to be an awfully polarizing prospect.  The evaluations on him are all over the place, there are more than a few draft evaluators/analysts who believe he is a really good prospect and there are quite a few who think he's meh.  

 

I'm not an expert by any stretch of the imagination but based on his stats and from the limited amount that I've seen from him, I think he's a solid prospect and I wouldn't be mad if our plan A and B failed in getting one of the top tiered QB's and we selected him as a plan C with the 12 pick.

[TigerJ]

Yeah, Rudolph looks good in this analysis.

19 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

It actually makes me feel better. I've never been a particularly hard Darnold or Allen pusher, and if we simply can't budge, I am now more ok with Rudolph at 12.

 

[billsredneck1]

i think our only chance to move up is no.4. i think the chance of us getting locked out of the big 4 are probably 90%

 

we may be lucky to land him at 12 and it may be a blessing in disguise. given our oline situation, that gives us the chance to move 22 for another 2nd and 3rd.

[jr1]

I thought this would be about Curtis Modkins

[4BillsintheBurgh]

27 minutes ago, Shotgunner said:

That's a hell of alot of good information. I wonder where Darnold and Allen fall on this "scale".

 

I surely don't envy Beane and co. They have to pick one of these guys and hope/surmise he is the right one (or one of the right ones).

 

I like my position better. I get to take ownership and talk smack to opposing fans if he works out, but also get to slam Beane if they take the wrong one and he busts.

Regardless of the decision Beane makes in this draft and even if he stands pat and makes a selection of the best qb at 12, we will have more talent in the qb room than we've had in a long time. Plus the attitude that we need to get the qb situation right as soon as possible.

 

So you've got that going for you, and that's nice.

[Punching Bag]

While there is a lot of information it is certainly a copyright violation to post here.

[BuffaloBillyG]

When reading this, please take into account that Fairchild is a blithering idiot as an offensive mind. 

[racketmaster]

19 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

While there is a lot of information it is certainly a copyright violation to post here.

Sorry, was not sure how to get the info on the site. I know a lot of posters prefer to see the information pasted so they don’t have to follow links at work. But the articles are on NFL Draft Bible website. I edited to post to include the link (not sure if that makes any difference or not).  

18 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:

When reading this, please take into account that Fairchild is a blithering idiot as an offensive mind. 

He is a former qb and specialized as a qb coach and offensive assistant both at the NFL and college level. Has had several stints as an NFL OC so I believe he has some credibility in this area. He certainly has a lot more experience and connections than myself. No one person’s evaluation is gospel as scouting is subjective. But I enjoyed the detailed break downs and having watched many games for each of the prospects I think the assessments are pretty fair. 

Edited April 12, 2018 by racketmaster

[Heavy Kevi]

25 minutes ago, 4BillsintheBurgh said:

Regardless of the decision Beane makes in this draft and even if he stands pat and makes a selection of the best qb at 12, we will have more talent in the qb room than we've had in a long time. Plus the attitude that we need to get the qb situation right as soon as possible.

 

So you've got that going for you, and that's nice.

 

I agree with this.

 

It is absolutely the right thing to do, it just must be awfully stressful when your job is on the line. He hits, and we could see McD and Beane be a fixture at OBD, but if not it will likely spell the end for him. High stakes.

[aceman_16]

Is this why he has the title of "former"?

[Mango]

58 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

It actually makes me feel better. I've never been a particularly hard Darnold or Allen pusher, and if we simply can't budge, I am now more ok with Rudolph at 12.

 

There are a few red flags in this. Normally the taking snaps from shotgun thing in college is overrated, but NOT when you have bad footwork. Everything in the NFL is based on footwork. It is a big deal. The intermediate throws and willingness to leave a dirty pocket are also red flags for me. 

 

1 hour ago, racketmaster said:

 

LAMAR JACKSON—LOUISVILLE—QUARTERBACK

MEASUREABLES

School: Louisville | Number: #8 | Hometown: Pompano Beach, FL | Birthdate: 01/07/97 | Height: 6022 | Weight: 216 | Hand: 0948 | Arm: 3318 | Year: Junior

 BIO

Quarterback Lamar Jackson had a decorated collegiate career, becoming the first player in school history and the youngest player to ever win the Heisman Trophy Award in 2016 as a sophomore. The dual-threat signal-caller amassed over 9,000 yards passing and 4,000 yards rushing, while accounting for 119 touchdowns in his career. Other accomplishments include winning the Maxwell Award (2016) and Walter Camp Award (2016), in addition to being named a two-time First Team All-ACC selection and unanimous All-American (2016).

EVALUATION

 

Arm Ability & Throwing Mechanics

Jackson possesses a sound upper body throwing motion. He’s fairly quick with the ball and does not have a lot of wasted movement from the waste up. He has decent arm strength but very poor lower body mechanics. His feet rarely match his eyes when he gets off his primary receiver, which results in inaccurate throws. He isn’t compact with his lower body when he drops and sets up. Accuracy and ball placement will be an issue until he corrects his lower body fundamentals; his target alignment with his feet and his pocket movements. GRADE: 7.0

Drop/Setup/Alignment

The Cardinals offensive system required Jackson to take nearly all his snaps from shotgun. There will be an adjustment for him under center, as he is not a lower body compact quarterback. He bounces at times on the setup and uses a big hitch to move up in the pocket. He sets up big in the pocket for a 6-2 signal-caller. His alignment is often poor when he gets past his primary look. GRADE: 6.5

 

Intermediate Throw Performance/Accuracy (Seven-Step)

Jackson struggled at pushing the ball down the field in the 15-to-20-yard range from inside the pocket.  This is a skill-set he’ll need to develop in order for him to be an effective quarterback at the next level. He relied, as he should have at Louisville, to take off and make his athletic ability the focus of the offense.  He was unable to stay in the pocket and let these types of route concepts develop. GRADE: 6.0

Deep Ball Performance/Accuracy (35+ Yards)

While he has enough arm strength to make the deep ball throws, his accuracy was inconsistent, as he tends to over-stride at times. He did throw outside fades and slot fade routes well but his ball placement overall was lacking in this area. GRADE: 7.0

Timing/Vision-Processing/Anticipation

There was plenty of timing and anticipation on quick game throws; these were always to his primary receiver. Once he was forced to work through a progression, he often tried to leave the pocket and thus his athletic ability took over, rather than the timing/anticipation of the pattern. He doesn’t see the entire field very well. Big hitches in the pocket hindered his ability—he was looking for escape avenues most of the time when his room to operate got tight. He rarely relied upon his ability to throw with timing from a compromised pocket. GRADE: 7.0

 

Pocket Demeanor & Movement

Jackson didn’t try to be a pocket passer when there was any challenge to his space.  He did show the ability and patience to stand tall in the pocket when it was clean. Anytime the launch point was threatened, he exited and relied on his speed/athleticism to take over, as this served him and the Louisville offense well. He has very poor subtle pocket movement and is more suited for radical movement or scrambling. He rarely negotiated a launch point and re-set his feet.  He was much more comfortable on the move. He operated big for a 6-2 quarterback, his hitch at the top of his drop is very large and he can get wide with his base. These are both bad habits that hurt his performance between the tackles, However, his ability to scramble and create was exceptional, as he made up for any lost opportunities in the pocket. GRADE: 6.0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[hondo in seattle]

I thought this was very interesting from a different vantage point - it gives us insight into what NFL professionals look at when they look at QBs.   

 

Steve is more detailed and nuanced in his observations than many of the more famous draft gurus.  

[4BillsintheBurgh]

Just now, Shotgunner said:

 

I agree with this.

 

It is absolutely the right thing to do, it just must be awfully stressful when your job is on the line. He hits, and we could see McD and Beane be a fixture at OBD, but if not it will likely spell the end for him. High stakes.

I know it's not in vogue around here to say it, but getting a qb will not solve all our problems. For me, difference between a top qb and a franchise qb has to do with the team around him. For example, how good would Brady* be without the Pats*? I would love for Tommy* to go to another team to see if he really plays like the goat without the same infrastructure.  Especially when a journeyman like Matt Cassel can lead the team to an 11-5 record.

 

You really do need a team so the whole picture needs to be taken into account when evaluating the front office as tempting as it may be to tie it into one decision. 

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

46 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:

When reading this, please take into account that Fairchild is a blithering idiot as an offensive mind. 

I wish you could debate him to prove your point. Or just right up a summary of your opinions of the current QB class. Man, you'll show him !!

[RochesterRob]

8 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

I thought this was very interesting from a different vantage point - it gives us insight into what NFL professionals look at when they look at QBs.   

 

Steve is more detailed and nuanced in his observations than many of the more famous draft gurus.  

  Yep, the evaluation process is far more complex than many here think that it is.  They can't look at a couple of games where the QB played a cupcake defense and proclaim that QB will be a long term fixture in the NFL.

[Heavy Kevi]

4 minutes ago, 4BillsintheBurgh said:

I know it's not in vogue around here to say it, but getting a qb will not solve all our problems. For me, difference between a top qb and a franchise qb has to do with the team around him. For example, how good would Brady* be without the Pats*? I would love for Tommy* to go to another team to see if he really plays like the goat without the same infrastructure.  Especially when a journeyman like Matt Cassel can lead the team to an 11-5 record.

 

You really do need a team so the whole picture needs to be taken into account when evaluating the front office as tempting as it may be to tie it into one decision. 

 

Yeah, but...

 

Hitting on a QB is the best way to keep your job. If he gets a good one, they will give him a long time to put a roster around the QB. Then even when your team doesn't look great, you are a threat every year to make real noise. Look at NO or LAC, Rivers and Brees have had some terrible rosters around them, and to be fair have had bad seasons, but they can be a powerhouse out of nowhere if they catch a spark.

 

We need to stop measuring things by NE. They have the best coach of all time, a long tenure system-fit QB, get players for a discount, get ref help, and have obviously gotten caught cheating multiple times. The truth is, we would be in a great position with a guy like Rivers. As nice as it would be, we can't snub our noses at something because it falls short of one of the most successful situations of all time.

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

My son who coached FCS nine years sends me his write ups for high school recruits every December very similar to this. This is a very, very detailed and thoughtful piece on. Enjoyed

[JoPar_v2]

Really shouldn’t cut and paste the entire thing here, even if you include the original link.

[LeGOATski]

Hopefully, all 11 teams ahead of the Bills view Mayfield the same way...

[17 Josh Allen]

I’ve been saying it all along and I will say it again that these 5 QB’s listed below that are not in the top 4, can absolutely end up being the best QB’s from this draft class and be better then any of the top 4. For my money I think Mason Rudolph is the best QB in this draft class. There is no need to trade up at all. Most likely one or two of the top 4 will fall. The highest I would trade up to is 6th spot with the colts. That’s only if the Bills QB that they like is there from the top 4. I’m not saying all will be better then the top 4, but it’s very likely one of these 5 could end up being the best from this QB draft class or several having better careers then some of the top 4 QB’s 

 

Lamar Jackson, Louisville 

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State  

Luke Faulk, Washington State 

Kyle Lauletta, Richmond

Mike White, Western Kentucky 

 

Edited April 12, 2018 by Thurmanator 12074

[Mr. WEO]

Along the way, he has coached high-profile quarterbacks such as Marc Bulger, JP Losman and Dan McGwire.

 

Couldn't resist.

 

Darnold, Allen, Rosen in the top 3, eh?  This changes everything...

 

[CuddyDark]

6 minutes ago, Thurmanator 12074 said:

I’ve been saying it all along and I will say it again that these 5 QB’s listed below that are not in the top 4, can absolutely end up being the best QB’s from this draft class and be better then any of the top 4. For my money I think Mason Rudolph is the best QB in this draft class. There is no need to trade up at all. Most likely one or two of the top 4 will fall. The highest I would trade up to is 6th spot with the colts. That’s only if the Bills QB that they like is there from the top 4. 

 

Lamar Jackson, Louisville 

Mason Rudolph Oklahoma State  

Luke Faulk Washington State 

Kyle Lauletta Richmond

Mike White Western, Kentucky 

 

I think if you fix Rudolph's footwork there isn't a huge difference between him and Darnold. At worst I seem him as Matt Schaub.

[BuffaloBillyG]

23 minutes ago, MOVALLEYRANDY said:

I wish you could debate him to prove your point. Or just right up a summary of your opinions of the current QB class. Man, you'll show him !!

I wish you could debate me to prove your point. Or just *write up a summary of your opinions on why he wasn't a blithering idiot as a playcaller. Man, you'll show me!!

Edited April 12, 2018 by No Place To Hyde

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

11 minutes ago, No Place To Hyde said:

I wish you could debate me to prove your point. Or just *write up a summary of your opinions on why he wasn't a blithering idiot as a playcaller. Man, you'll show me!!

When you're caught just change the subject. Calling someone a blithering for doing something you're not capable of. is just not cool. Just defending my bretheren. I was called an idiot for throwing on 4,th and two when our only decent RB had got a high ankle sprain on the previous series. I'm hyper sensitive to calling out coaches I guess. Sorry for the sarcasm. 17 years in coaching and 7 in a wheelchair will do that. LOL

Edited April 12, 2018 by MOVALLEYRANDY

[Radar]

1 hour ago, No Place To Hyde said:

When reading this, please take into account that Fairchild is a blithering idiot as an offensive mind. 

That's why we will go with your evaluation.

[BuffaloBillyG]

3 minutes ago, MOVALLEYRANDY said:

When you're caught just change the subject. Calling someone a blithering for doing something you're not capable of. is just not cool. Just defending my bretheren. I was called an idiot for throwing on 4,th and two when our only decent RB had got a high ankle sprain on the previous series. I'm hyper sensitive to calling out coaches I guess. Sorry for the sarcasm.

Assuming that calling an offense is something I don't have capability or experience with would be your mistake. 

 

I agree. You're hyper sensitive..

 

 

[racketmaster]

18 minutes ago, Thurmanator 12074 said:

I’ve been saying it all along and I will say it again that these 5 QB’s listed below that are not in the top 4, can absolutely end up being the best QB’s from this draft class and be better then any of the top 4. For my money I think Mason Rudolph is the best QB in this draft class. There is no need to trade up at all. Most likely one or two of the top 4 will fall. The highest I would trade up to is 6th spot with the colts. That’s only if the Bills QB that they like is there from the top 4. I’m not saying all will be better then the top 4, but it’s very likely one of these 5 could end up being the best from this QB draft class or several having better careers then some of the top 4 QB’s 

 

Lamar Jackson, Louisville 

Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma State  

Luke Faulk, Washington State 

Kyle Lauletta, Richmond

Mike White, Western Kentucky 

 

It is definitely a deep class filled with some interesting prospects. Of the 5, I am definitely highest on Rudolph (he checks most every box but does have limited ball velocity to the sidelines and not very mobile). The best trait about Rudolph is his in the pocket movements. He has the uncanny ability to make subtle slides and step ups in the pocket while keeping his eyes down the field. That trait is very similar to Brady and Manning (not very mobile but move extremely well within the pocket). 

 

My interest in Jackson has faded throughout the process. He still has tremendous potential but he has a long way to go as a passer (he is too quick to run or bail at the first sign of pressure and he is not very accurate when making intermediate throws-too often balls sail well over the heads of intended targets and they will often be interceptions at the next level). He is an exceptional runner and does have some arm talent but he needs time to have a chance. 

 

Faulk, Lauletta and White are also very interesting and they each seem destined to be solid NFL backups. However, I would not be surprised if one of the 3 emerged as a viable starter like a Case Keenum. 

[dubs]

1 minute ago, No Place To Hyde said:

Assuming that calling an offense is something I don't have capability or experience with would be your mistake. 

 

I agree. You're hyper sensitive..

 

 

 

MO was right. Your original response was worthless. The information from Fairchild was at least worth an intelligent discussion - not a dismissive post. 

 

MO - 1

HYDE - 0

 

Then to compound your mistake you didn’t even take the chance to be humble when MO clearly gave you an olive branch. 

 

MO - 2

HYDE - 0

[BuffaloBillyG]

2 minutes ago, dubs said:

 

MO was right. Your original response was worthless. The information from Fairchild was at least worth an intelligent discussion - not a dismissive post. 

 

MO - 1

HYDE - 0

 

Then to compound your mistake you didn’t even take the chance to be humble when MO clearly gave you an olive branch. 

 

MO - 2

HYDE - 0

If my response was worthless any reply is equally worthless. Including yours. 

 

But please, if you want to discredit my original statement, between you and MO tell me why Steve Fairchild isn't an idiot when it comes to running an offense? Feel free to use stats, players that thrived under his system and any other relevant pluses you can find. 

 

Otherwise you are entitled to your opinion as I am mine.

[elroy16]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

 

There are a few red flags in this. Normally the taking snaps from shotgun thing in college is overrated, but NOT when you have bad footwork. Everything in the NFL is based on footwork. It is a big deal. The intermediate throws and willingness to leave a dirty pocket are also red flags for me. 

 

 

 

 

There's a bunch of red flags in Fairchild's analysis of Jackson, that's for sure.

 

 

It's curious to see different sides though. Matt Waldman did a breakdown of Jackson versus Allen's in the pocket and had good things to say about Jackson in the pocket.

 

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2017/12/30/rsp-film-room-no-119-qbs-lamar-jackson-and-josh-allen-in-the-pocket/

 

 

 

This looks like one of the more positive evaluations on Rudolph. I particularly like Rudolph's ability to hit the intermediate throws.