Jon Ledyard/NDT Scouting: 19 first round grades, with 2 of the top 4 QBs left out

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree.  Darnold to Browns and Allen to Jets.

I extend to the conversation; the Bills acquire pick 2 and draft Josh Rosen ahead of Josh Allen.

[Tyrod's friend]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree.  Darnold to Browns and Allen to Jets.

 

On certain days I can see the Allen bias for the Jets. He's physically similar to guys they tend to favor.

But culturally, coming from the city, I just see the Mayfield/Namath attitude comparison as too strong for them to overlook. By everything I've read, Mayfield is a day one starter and the Jets FO has failed around the QB position so much they need to not be wrong on this one. 

I think the Jets board would go Mayfield/Rosen then Allen.

 

[SoFFacet]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

 

First,  you need to look at the difference between opinion and fact.  Allen, as I said, made more tight-window throws than any other QB in the class.  He cannot do that if he's inaccurate.  What you're talking about is completion percentage, which is affected by far more than accuracy (but that's a whole different discussion that's probably too nuanced for someone that won't decipher opinion from fact).  As for mentally slow, well, he did outscore the QB field in the Wonderlic test, so that must make Mayfield and Rosen mental midgets, right?  Or are you referring to on-field processing speed?  That's got far more to do with experience in a system and comfort level with the people around him, but again, we're getting way too far into subject for what you're ready to discuss.

 

Do yourself a favor and stop now.  You've said some really silly things (he's a laughingstock among the analyst community, Mayfield is everyone's QB1) that can easily be disproved with a link or two (that I'm happy to provide if you want to continue), and the further we go down this rabbit hole, the worse this has the potential to get.

 

Let's just review how we got here. This board has apparently been permeated with poor draft "analysis" from moronic pundits, the result being that people such as yourself believe in laughable things such as that Allen is any good. You also believe yourself to be a member of some majority or consensus. All hilariously wrong. The vast majority of rational analysts looking at the draft class through an objective lens and using empirical data think that Mayfield is top-3 if not #1, and Allen will bust. 

 

Obviously mentally slow = on-field processing speed. You can't explain that away with whatever word salad you just tried to use. I can't believe you even uttered the word wonderlic, a test everyone knows is non-predictive of NFL success and people only ever bring up when their guy does well on it. No offense but you come across as a very pompous individual who is ignorant of his own ignorance. 

 

[mannc]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

Ledyard said he would take Darnold in the 1st due to positional value but gave him a day 2 grade. 

Apparently, many people are discovering that the emperor has no clothes. 

[4merper4mer]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

How is him being slow a documented fact? 

 

I don't know how someone can document "slow".  With that said, have you seen Leighton Vander Doodle interviewed?  You can't watch for more than 3 seconds without being reminded of the catcher from the Major League movies.  Stills hat isn't truly documenting anything.

 

 

[maryland-bills-fan]

26 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Very, very few people think Allen sucks.

 

There is a faction of folks that don't think he's got the skill set to be an NFL QB.

 

Most folks see the raw ability, but vary in opinion regarding how much honing of his skill set it'll take to make him successful, and what type of offense he can operate efficiently.

I disagree.  If he can not show sufficient accuracy playing in college, how is that going to improve against better cornerbacks and pass rushers and more complicated schemes?  I would be scared of drafting him and having to depend upon him.  2nd round at best.

[4merper4mer]

2 minutes ago, mannc said:

Apparently, many people are discovering that the emperor has no clothes. 

Kim Jung QB part deux?

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

My current 2 most likely scenarios:

 

#1

Cle Darnold, Trade(Buff) Rosen, NYJ Allen, Cle Barkley, Den Chubb

 

#2

Cle Allen, NYG Darnold, NYJ Rosen, Cle Barkley, Den Chubb

 

In both scenarios, Mayfield goes somewhere between 6-10 in a trade up.  Mayfield is ahead  of Allen by my ranking , but goes lower.

 

JMO

Edited April 5, 2018 by horned dogs

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, SoFFacet said:

 

Let's just review how we got here. This board has apparently been permeated with poor draft "analysis" from moronic pundits, the result being that people such as yourself believe in laughable things such as that Allen is any good. You also believe yourself to be a member of some majority or consensus. All hilariously wrong. The vast majority of rational analysts looking at the draft class through an objective lens and using empirical data think that Mayfield is top-3 if not #1, and Allen will bust. 

 

Obviously mentally slow = on-field processing speed. You can't explain that away with whatever word salad you just tried to use. I can't believe you even uttered the word wonderlic, a test everyone knows is non-predictive of NFL success and people only ever bring up when their guy does well on it. No offense but you come across as a very pompous individual who is ignorant of his own ignorance. 

 

 

Okay then.  Why don't you go ahead and show me the "rational analysts" that have Mayfield as their QB1?  I'll wait.  While you're digging those up, go ahead and show me the "rational analysts" that say that Allen shouldn't be drafted at all, because if he "sucks" like most people think he does (as you originally stated), that's what they'd say.

 

And yes, there are a great number of analysts that have Allen as one of their top QBs in the draft.  Among them are guys like Mayock (2nd ranked QB), Kiper (1), McShay (2), Pete Prisco (1), Matt Miller (2), and many others.  You also might want to check yourself before you accuse me of subscribing to group-think; I've published my game tape breakdown on this board for the top 6 QBs in the draft and made my rankings well-known.  I don't copy anyone's work.

 

And no, mentally slow does not mean on-field processing speed; it means dumb.  Look it up.  It's not my fault that you used poor wording.

 

If you had even a scintilla of the common sense that you believe yourself to possess, you'd (a) stop overstating your point to the point of inanity, and (b) realize whose post reeks of pomposity.

[Gugny]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I don't copy anyone's work.

 

 

Does that ever happen on this site?

[thebandit27]

15 minutes ago, maryland-bills-fan said:

I disagree.  If he can not show sufficient accuracy playing in college, how is that going to improve against better cornerbacks and pass rushers and more complicated schemes?  I would be scared of drafting him and having to depend upon him.  2nd round at best.

 

The same way that guys like Matthew Stafford, Josh McCown, Matt Ryan, and Carson Palmer went from sub-60% passers in college to efficient, accurate passers in the NFL.

 

Folks act like improving accuracy is either rare or impossible; check out the numbers sometime, as it's actually quite common.

 

As for 2nd round and Allen, well, you may as well take him off your board.  He's very unlikely to be there in round 2, and even if he were, why take the guy if you don't think he can improve?  I've said it repeatedly: if you don't see franchise potential in a guy, don't take him until day 3.  His flaws aren't going to become more correctable if you take him in round 2.

 

11 minutes ago, horned dogs said:

My current 2 most likely scenarios:

 

#1

Cle Darnold, Trade(Buff) Rosen, NYJ Allen, Cle Barkley, Den Chubb

 

#2

Cle Allen, NYG Darnold, NYJ Rosen, Cle Barkley, Den Chubb

 

In both scenarios, Mayfield goes somewhere between 6-10 in a trade up.  Mayfield is ahead  of Allen by my ranking , but goes lower.

 

JMO

 

I think you're mostly on track here.  My QB rankings definitely don't match up with the order that they're going to be picked

[Tyrod's friend]

32 minutes ago, SoFFacet said:

 

As I said, Ledyard is low on Mayfield, who is the QB1 according to most informed analysts. 

I'm a big time believer in Mayfield ... and so to me, Ledyard seems low.

But ... really? You don't think that goes to Josh Rosen (or Darnold)? Which analysts are you reading that say Mayfield?

[Gugny]

23 minutes ago, SoFFacet said:

 

Let's just review how we got here. This board has apparently been permeated with poor draft "analysis" from moronic pundits, the result being that people such as yourself believe in laughable things such as that Allen is any good. You also believe yourself to be a member of some majority or consensus. All hilariously wrong. The vast majority of rational analysts looking at the draft class through an objective lens and using empirical data think that Mayfield is top-3 if not #1, and Allen will bust. 

 

Obviously mentally slow = on-field processing speed. You can't explain that away with whatever word salad you just tried to use. I can't believe you even uttered the word wonderlic, a test everyone knows is non-predictive of NFL success and people only ever bring up when their guy does well on it. No offense but you come across as a very pompous individual who is ignorant of his own ignorance. 

 

 

With regard to QBs, in the modern era, the Wonderlic has been very accurately predictive of NFL success.  Since 2000, every QB scoring less than 16 has gone onto having an unsuccessful career as a starting NFL QB.

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, YoloinOhio said:

Ledyard said he would take Darnold in the 1st due to positional value but gave him a day 2 grade. 

 

He likes him "a lot" too.

 

Yet he has 4 RBs ahead of him?

[Magox]

Just now, Mr. WEO said:

 

He likes him "a lot" too.

 

Yet he has 4 RBs ahead of him?

 

I think you are confusing with "where they should be drafted" to "first round grade".

 

First round grade meaning from this perspective a true blue chipper.  Doesn't mean that the supposed blue chipper should be selected over the QB prospect just that he believes the blue chipper will go on to have a more successful NFL career than the QB prospect.

 

Make sense?

[mannc]

3 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

He likes him "a lot" too.

 

Yet he has 4 RBs ahead of him?

What’s really funny is speculation that the Browns or Giants might use the first or second pick on someone who might be the third best RB in the class.

[Tyrod's friend]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

The same way that guys like Matthew Stafford, Josh McCown, Matt Ryan, and Carson Palmer went from sub-60% passers in college to efficient, accurate passers in the NFL.

 

Folks act like improving accuracy is either rare or impossible; check out the numbers sometime, as it's actually quite common.

 

well ... it depends on the point that is being made here. A college QB can go from completing 56% of his college passes to 60-61% in the pros. Sure; some of that is talent surrounding him, some of it has to do with the offense and what the QB is being called on to achieve.

But one in the pros, the numbers don't support your thesis - if you are using completion percentage as the guide. Using your examples of Ryan, Stafford and Palmer.
 

Matthew Stafford Passing Statistics for Career Games 2009 to 2014

 

		Games		Passing																Passing
Year	Tm	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
Average		13	13		308	516		3619	22		14									27	183
Per 16 Games		16	16		384	644		4512	27		18									33	228
2009-2014	DET	77	77	35-42-0	1848	3099	59.6	21714	131	4.2	85	2.7	87	7.0	6.6	11.8	282.0	83.6		161	1096	6.32	5.95	4.9

Stafford isn't unusual. For six years his completion percentage was remarkably consistent. Matt Ryan was remarkably consistent around a 60% level. 

Palmer had a single good year (not unusual) but again, very consistent throughout his time up to his age 33 season. The 62.5% completion rate was within 1% plus/minus nearly the entire time.
 

Carson Palmer Passing Statistics for Career Games 2004 to 2012

 

		Games		Passing																Passing
Year	Tm	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
Average		14	13		285	457		3274	21		14									23	159
Per 16 Games
2004-2012	CIN,RAI	122	121	54-67-0	2568	4110	62.5	29465	189	4.6	130	3.2	78	7.2	6.7	11.5	241.5	86.2		203	1434	6.50	6.02	4.7

 

Can Allen improve his accuracy from 56% to 61% in the pros? Possibly. You might find some examples of QBs that made that jump in accuracy after they got to the pros. Everything I've looked at leads me to believe that accuracy, as defined by completion percentage ... well, you better be pretty much happy with what you see when they get to professional level, 'cause it's going to be awhile.

[Mr. WEO]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

 

I think you are confusing with "where they should be drafted" to "first round grade".

 

First round grade meaning from this perspective a true blue chipper.  Doesn't mean that the supposed blue chipper should be selected over the QB prospect just that he believes the blue chipper will go on to have a more successful NFL career than the QB prospect.

 

Make sense?

 

I did get that, but by nearly every account, Darnold is a great athlete and solid first round talent.  But in this guy's mind, a quartet of RBs grade out higher than Darnold?

 

 

[Magox]

1 minute ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

I did get that, but by nearly every account, Darnold is a great athlete and solid first round talent.  But in this guy's mind, a quartet of RBs grade out higher than Darnold?

 

 

 

That's fine, you disagree with his view which could very well be right but that isn't how you framed it.  

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

16 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

The same way that guys like Matthew Stafford, Josh McCown, Matt Ryan, and Carson Palmer went from sub-60% passers in college to efficient, accurate passers in the NFL.

 

Folks act like improving accuracy is either rare or impossible; check out the numbers sometime, as it's actually quite common.

So you're saying that there is hope for Nate?  

 

[Nihilarian]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree.  Darnold to Browns and Allen to Jets.

Man, I can only hope Allen doesn't go to the Jets. Even though there is a strong chance that they will ruin him by throwing him into the fire too soon. There is also the chance that he can overcome that team's coaching ineptitude and develop into a QB the Bills will dread playing twice a year. 

 

So many Bills fans have this kid all wrong as they hear accuracy issues and say no way. This young man is a winner as he basically carried that Wyoming team by himself and won a bowl game. That team was absolute crap without him. Listen to what opposing coaches complained about when facing him in that they needed to defend the entire field from his arm.

 

"Still, there were moments when Allen's gifts were on display.

"Third down, rips an absolute freakin' dime on a rope 45 yards, hits the guy on the facemask. Incomplete,"

"He's getting pressured, not every time, but just about I'd say 70 percent of his
dropbacks, he's either getting pressure early — before 2 1/2 seconds — or his receivers aren't separating so he's forced to hold the ball and move and avoid pressure and then try to reset and throw. Or throw on the run while a defender is closing in on him," McShay said. "What are you supposed to do?"

 

Talking with Josh Allen he knows his footwork was a mess in college and he has been working with coaches to improve his mechanics, footwork and that showed at his pro day. This a kid that dedicated himself to be a great NFL QB and if developed properly could be another Aaron Rodgers, Big Ben. 

http://www.startribune.com/evaluating-allen-adversity-will-be-best-test-for-wyoming-qb/446694593/

 

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

I’ve been thinking that the Allen buzz is largely being created by his agent to try to boost his stock.  This lends credence to that.  

 

I wonder about this. In 2013 everyone thought Barkley Nassib and Glennon were surefire 1st or 2nd round picks. Barkley and Nassib and Smith were projected to go #1 overall in at least a few mock drafts. We don't know how GMs really feel about these guys until draft night.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, Tyrod's friend said:

 

well ... it depends on the point that is being made here. A college QB can go from completing 56% of his college passes to 60-61% in the pros. Sure; some of that is talent surrounding him, some of it has to do with the offense and what the QB is being called on to achieve.

But one in the pros, the numbers don't support your thesis - if you are using completion percentage as the guide. Using your examples of Ryan, Stafford and Palmer.
 

Matthew Stafford Passing Statistics for Career Games 2009 to 2014

 

 

		Games		Passing																Passing
Year	Tm	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
Average		13	13		308	516		3619	22		14									27	183
Per 16 Games		16	16		384	644		4512	27		18									33	228
2009-2014	DET	77	77	35-42-0	1848	3099	59.6	21714	131	4.2	85	2.7	87	7.0	6.6	11.8	282.0	83.6		161	1096	6.32	5.95	4.9

Stafford isn't unusual. For six years his completion percentage was remarkably consistent. Matt Ryan was remarkably consistent around a 60% level. 

Palmer had a single good year (not unusual) but again, very consistent throughout his time up to his age 33 season. The 62.5% completion rate was within 1% plus/minus nearly the entire time.
 

Carson Palmer Passing Statistics for Career Games 2004 to 2012

 

 

		Games		Passing																Passing
Year	Tm	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD
Average		14	13		285	457		3274	21		14									23	159
Per 16 Games
2004-2012	CIN,RAI	122	121	54-67-0	2568	4110	62.5	29465	189	4.6	130	3.2	78	7.2	6.7	11.5	241.5	86.2		203	1434	6.50	6.02	4.7

 

Can Allen improve his accuracy from 56% to 61% in the pros? Possibly. You might find some examples of QBs that made that jump in accuracy after they got to the pros. Everything I've looked at leads me to believe that accuracy, as defined by completion percentage ... well, you better be pretty much happy with what you see when they get to professional level, 'cause it's going to be awhile.

 

I meant from college to the NFL.

 

Stafford was 57.1% in college; 62% career in the NFL

McCown was 51.2% in college; 60.4% career in the NFL (career high of 67% last season)

Palmer was 59.1% in college; 62.1% career in the NFL

Ryan was 59.9% in college; 64.9% career in the NFL

 

Again, that's not to say that Allen will make a similar jump; these guys just happen to be examples of guys that made marked improvements in completion % from college to the NFL.

[Tyrod's friend]

2 minutes ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

So you're saying that there is hope for Nate?  

 

Nate already is completing 59% of his passes.

24 to our boys, 5 to theirs. I don't know how much room for improvement you think he's got.

[Putin]

2 hours ago, hemma said:

I'm not surprised about Vea not showing up on his list.  

Looked a little sluggish and won't be able to overpower as easily in the pros.

Yes but at the same time he will have more talent around him as well 

[4merper4mer]

6 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

I did get that, but by nearly every account, Darnold is a great athlete and solid first round talent.  But in this guy's mind, a quartet of RBs grade out higher than Darnold?

 

 

Running backs can be great athletes too!

[Tyrod's friend]

2 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I meant from college to the NFL.

 

Stafford was 57.1% in college; 62% career in the NFL

McCown was 51.2% in college; 60.4% career in the NFL (career high of 67% last season)

Palmer was 59.1% in college; 62.1% career in the NFL

Ryan was 59.9% in college; 64.9% career in the NFL

 

Again, that's not to say that Allen will make a similar jump; these guys just happen to be examples of guys that made marked improvements in completion % from college to the NFL.

I understand what you are saying and I think we saying the same thing differently. But the lack of sustained improvement strikes me as saying they didn't get better. Their circumstances got better. Either they were put into a new system, or asked to do less, or had better surrounding cast. 

I've made this point elsewhere. Players have muscle memory that is incredibly hard to change, especially as a QB when there are so many other things they are processing for a rookie. 

What they do, and do consistently ... if you think you are going to change that drastically in the pros, you are playing against a stacked deck.

Enjoy the snow. 

 

[Mr. WEO]

12 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

That's fine, you disagree with his view which could very well be right but that isn't how you framed it.  

 

 

I said it twice.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

As for the "nobody with his stats" stuff, that's been debunked on this board many, many times.

 

No QB with a negative QBASE has ever made it. It's a fairly small sample size but the odds are very much against him.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

 

I hear differently, but I guess we'll see in 3 weeks.

 

Thats fair. He obviously has plenty of raw ability and QBs have a huge premium today so I don’t mean to imply that he won’t go high in round one.  It’s just that talk of #1 overall for such a raw prospect seems crazy to me.  Admittedly I haven’t done the homework on these QBs that I usually do. 

[Doc]

1 hour ago, TheTruthHurts said:

This is such a fascinating QB class. So many different opinions.

 

Scary is more the word for it. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, horned dogs said:

I extend to the conversation; the Bills acquire pick 2 and draft Josh Rosen ahead of Josh Allen.

 

Let's hope so.  

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

Allen, as I said, made more tight-window throws than any other QB in the class. 

 

Is this your subjective opinion from watching tape, or did you pull data while scouting? The NDT Contextualized QB report found Josh Allen had the 3rd worst target share to tight windows out of 13 QBs (only Lamar Jackson and Brandon Silvers had a lower rate). He also had the 2nd worst accuracy and ball placement on tight window throws (only Mike White was worse). Throwing the ball fast doesn't mean you make good decisions or throw the ball accurately.

[C.Biscuit97]

This whole draft process is setting up Allen to fail.  Guy should be a day 2 pick and not it into a position to be a franchise savior.  Now, he’s going to get overdrafted and forced to play a lot earlier than he should.  

[thebandit27]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Is this your subjective opinion from watching tape, or did you pull data while scouting? The NDT Contextualized QB report found Josh Allen had the 3rd worst target share to tight windows out of 13 QBs (only Lamar Jackson and Brandon Silvers had a lower rate). He also had the 2nd worst accuracy and ball placement on tight window throws (only Mike White was worse). Throwing the ball fast doesn't mean you make good decisions or throw the ball accurately.

 

It was from my personal charting when I graded the top-6; admittedly I'm much stricter than Solak as far as what I consider a tight-window throw.

[Tyrod's friend]

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

Throwing the ball fast doesn't mean you make good decisions or throw the ball accurately.

 

Common sense is that these are contra-indicated. Softest passer in our division in the last 15 years was Chad Pennington. 

[C.Biscuit97]

30 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

No QB with a negative QBASE has ever made it. It's a fairly small sample size but the odds are very much against him.

That’s what would terrify me if I picked Allen high.  Of course, he could become a star.  But the overwhelming evidence from college does nothing to support this.  

[Mojo44]

2 hours ago, hemma said:

I'm not surprised about Vea not showing up on his list.  

Looked a little sluggish and won't be able to overpower as easily in the pros.

 I have the same feeling about  Vea although my sample size is small.  I just saw him and his ball game.He did seem sluggish and easily handled by whatever offensive Lineman went up against him. I saw no evidence of a big guy with a lot of athletic ability or the ability to penetrate. But, again, it just was one game. He did not impress me.

[Mat68]

4 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

Ledyard said he would take Darnold in the 1st due to positional value but gave him a day 2 grade. 

This is the worst part of "Scout speak".  Round grades mean nothing.  There is not value at picking a QB 3 or 56.  If they become a franchise caliber starter in the NFL they are worth the 1st pick.  Value means nothing if you like the player and they produce and are effective in the NFL they are worth the pick or possibly higher.  Matt Malano would have been perceived as a reach if he was drafted in the 3rd though his play this past year would have justified it. 

Edited April 5, 2018 by Mat68

[Buffalo_Stampede]

50 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Scary is more the word for it. 

Not at all scary. There is no science to scouting QB's. Smart people get QB wrong all the time. I just don't remember such a wide variety of opinions.