McShay Believes "High Probability" Buffalo Ultimately Trades to #2 (For Josh Allen)

[Reed83HOF]

1 hour ago, NewEraBills said:

 

Which actually could mean no interest but could also mean Mayfield and Rosen are smoke.  At this point it's just whatever, get this over with haha.

This is why I say believe no names at this point....

[NewEraBills]

1 minute ago, Reed83HOF said:

This is why I say believe no names at this point....

Yeah.  I'm not locked into a guy but it's unfortunate that I'm locked against some guys at a particular price point.  I'd eventually accept it, but I'd initially be mad at some guys depending on what the price is.

[Augie]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

The Bills are going to #2 so long as Cleveland doesn't take their guy. 

 

Who do you think “their guy” is? 

 

 

Allen’s upside is amazing, but he scares me to death! Darnold or Rosen works for me. Even Mayfield for the right price.  

[gobills1212]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Why oh why does Josh Allen have to exist?! 

He's really bringing down what has otherwise been a really fun draft buildup.

Still, the fear that OBD trades a bunch of picks to move up and draft him is really, REALLY raining on my parade.

To give up as much as the front office has given up (Watkins, Dareus, Darby, Ragland, Jones, trading down instead of taking Watson/Mahomes last season, the numerous picks it will take to move up) just to draft JOSH ALLEN?!?! Please God no! And does Beane really want to stake his CAREER on the guy? 

The whole thing makes me queasy. 

I'm not in love w allen...  but mcbeane isnt stupid. They have to be well aware of the situation you laid out. Knowing that, if he really is their target (and let's face it you can pay attention to EVERYTHING or NOTHING and odds are you wouldn't have a better grip either way of who their guy is) and he is their choice... well, that... THAT gets me excited. You dont do everything you just mentioned to fail or be a wishy washy with it. They will have have big and well thought out plans, which means who ever they choose (if given the chance) has big potential. Granted they haven't had as long... but this isnt whaley/rex, nix, Brandon bumbling. I feel like in a perfect world if they get their guy- we can hope for these big things bc they seem to know what they are doing. I'm not usually Mr optimistic but compared to who has been through here the last 10+yrs - I feel like these are the guys best suited for a play/move this big and I'm glad NOW is when the pieces came together

Edited April 5, 2018 by gobills1212

[slaphappy]

I only hope they can identify a QB prospect better than past regimes. Not new info on here but in the last 17 years only 17 of the 50 1st round QB's went on to have a franchise changing career.. and that's if you throw in Chad Pennington. Two of the 33 busts where friggin Bills picks. 9 QB's taken later than round 1 had impact.. 0 of those were friggin Bills picks. 

 

So to sum it up.. my biggest fear is these guys not knowing what an NFL QB looks like even if he visits them 4 times.

Edited April 5, 2018 by slaphappy

[Logic]

7 minutes ago, slaphappy said:

I only hope they can identify a QB prospect better than past regimes. Not new info on here but in the last 17 years only 17 of the 50 1st round QB's went on to have a franchise changing career.. and that's if you throw in Chad Pennington. Two of the 33 busts where friggin Bills picks. 9 QB's taken later than round 1 had impact.. 0 of those were friggin Bills picks. 

 

So to sum it up.. my biggest fear is these guys not knowing what an NFL QB looks like even if he visits them 4 times.

I have to say...this is a big fear of mine, as well.

I like Brandon Beane a lot, but there's a small part of me that really doesn't like the fact that he's not a dyed in the wool, hardcore football background, 10 years as a scout kind of guy. I know he worked his way up and paid his dues and yada yada yada, but actually knowing what a franchise QB looks like? How are Brandon Beane's player evaluation skills, really? I have full faith that he'll be excellent with the salary cap, free agency, contract negotiations, people management...all the non rookie talent acquisition parts of the job. But his expertise as a drafter remains to be seen, and I really hope it doesn't cost the Bills a franchise QB in exchange for the third 1st round QB bust of this millennium. 

And then you have McDermott. Sure, he was around McNabb and Cam Newton, but had no hand in selecting or coaching either guy. He's a defensive mind through and through. Luckily, it's not his job to stock the cupboard with groceries. But you figure he's at least giving his input as to what items should be on the grocery list.

Here's hoping for both their sakes that they know what to look for.

[Wily Dog]

I am amazed how the board has changed in the last two months. It was all Mason ,Mason I will not watch the  Bill's ,I am done with them and now it is Baker ,Baker who is is the Idol of the board. I know that there is a feeling of mistrust with our front office but there is hope . Look at last year. They have stabilized the franchise and have put us in a most favorable position with their trades , signings, and cuts  last year and this year. We will have cap space next  year. We are in the best position of all 32 teams as far as draft picks this year.Trust your GM , after all he is the one  who has to be  more knowledgeable than us. He is the one who's job  is on the line. So far he  has done a remarkable job , in my opinion. So whomever he chooses , I will  be in line with his decision no matter whether he was my choice or not.

[Mat68]

2 hours ago, atlbillsfan1975 said:

How does Allen remind you of Cam?

Size and arm.  Cam was not a slam dunk prospect.  Hindsight 20/20 now.  Many questiined his ability to win in the pocket in the NFL.

[Green Lightning]

Allen will be a legendary bust.

[purple haze]

10 hours ago, mjt328 said:

If the Bills really like Josh Allen that much, I guess I'll just need to trust their judgment.

 

At the same time, I just can't understand why anyone would even consider him over safer prospects Sam Darnold or Josh Rosen.  It logically makes no sense.

 

Sure, I get the concept of "upside" if Allen manages to improve things like accuracy and pocket presence.  But why take a guy with potential, over a guy like Rosen who already has refined those aspects of his game?  Darnold and Rosen have just as much upside, but a much lower chance of busting.

 

 

Darnold might not be available and Rosen's injury history could give Beane pause.  Rosen has missed time the past two seasons.  He's not a stocky guy and he's not all that mobile either.  He can and will operate from the pocket most times; and he is going to take shots from bigger, stronger, quicker defensive players.

 

Not saying they shouldn't take him, but I can understand a GM questioning the investment it would take to move up to #2 for him.  I could say the same for any of these QBs,  which is why I'm not tied to any of them as the one the Bills must draft or they're "stupid" or if they draft "that guy" i'm out.  

 

I'm good with whatever QB because that will be who Beane and McD identified for whatever reason.  At that point it's up to the coaches and the player to make it do what it do.

 

 

Edited April 5, 2018 by purple haze

[MemBill]

When I read a post that says, "I don't think they want Allen," I think it actually means, "I have no idea what they want but I don't want it to be Allen." It's wishful thinking framed as a prediction. The Bills might well pick Allen.

[Greensleeves]

10 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

One thing I will say is that there are a lot of people who know 1000 times more about football than any of us who believe Allen is the best QB in this draft.  So much so, that I think its HIGHLY possible he goes 1st overall to Cleveland at this point.  

 

I had concerns, but those concerns stem from what I read or people say as I didnt watch him play.  But highlights are legit and his combine and workouts have been the best of all the QB's.  I am warming up to him now and have him as my 3rd guy behind Baker and Darnold.  So I wont hate getting him anymore, but I do definitely prefer Baker as he is my top guy on the board.  

'

Personally, I think Allen is going to go #1...then it will be interesting to see if Bills go Darnold or Baker if they trade up to 2.  I said all year long I felt Baker was going to be a Bill next year, even when people kept telling me he was a 2nd round pick or lower.  But I am starting to think he is their target as they sure are meeting with him a lot.  And I would be stoked if we got him.  

 

Dont get me wrong, I would love to get a guy outside the top 5 too, but at this point, there seems to be a lot of energy around us trading to #2...so hate giving up so many picks, but will still be exciting no matter who we take.  The guy I like the least is Rosen though now...Bradford body and cutler-esque personality have cooled my interest.

I think it's pretty well known that if the Browns take Allen, the Giants will not be trading the pick and will grab Darnold. I don't think the Browns will trade at 4 either, since they like Barkely and Chubb a lot and have a lot of picks and need to start picking marquee players. Jets will pick Rosen, Browns will pick Barkely or Chubb, and then Denver will go Mayfield if they like him or take the other player the Browns did not. If they take Mayfield, the top 4 Qbs will be gone by pick 5 with no trading partners. What hurts the Bills is that this draft has about 7 or 8 blue chip players. I think it would be crazy to trade down to where you don't get one. The Colts said they didn't want to go down any further than 6. 

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

The Bills are going to #2 so long as Cleveland doesn't take their guy. 

If the Browns take Allen or Barkely the Giants will not be trading the pick. BTW, Allen makes the most sense for the Bills. A big guy with a cold weather background, huge hands and can throw well downfield. Don't think Rosen would want to be in Buffalo or Cleveland and they will probably pick up on that. Rosen would be better off with the Jets or Giants based on the type of guy he is. 

Edited April 5, 2018 by Greensleeves

[BigDingus]

Still all-in on the "anyone but Allen" bandwagon.

I really think there's a 0.001% chance the Bills want Allen.

There's even less of a chance we trade up to #2 to grab him. Let the Jets be stuck with him. It's a win-win for us.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Greensleeves said:

I think it's pretty well known that if the Browns take Allen, the Giants will not be trading the pick and will grab Darnold. I don't think the Browns will trade at 4 either, since they like Barkely and Chubb a lot and have a lot of picks and need to start picking marquee players. Jets will pick Rosen, Browns will pick Barkely or Chubb, and then Denver will go Mayfield if they like him or take the other player the Browns did not. If they take Mayfield, the top 4 Qbs will be gone by pick 5 with no trading partners. What hurts the Bills is that this draft has about 7 or 8 blue chip players. I think it would be crazy to trade down to where you don't get one. The Colts said they didn't want to go down any further than 6. 

If the Browns take Allen or Barkely the Giants will not be trading the pick. BTW, Allen makes the most sense for the Bills. A big guy with a cold weather background, huge hands and can throw well downfield. Don't think Rosen would want to be in Buffalo or Cleveland and they will probably pick up on that. Rosen would be better off with the Jets or Giants based on the type of guy he is. 

 

I disagree most fervantly with almost everything you said. But carry on. 

[transplantbillsfan]

4 hours ago, MemBill said:

When I read a post that says, "I don't think they want Allen," I think it actually means, "I have no idea what they want but I don't want it to be Allen." It's wishful thinking framed as a prediction. The Bills might well pick Allen.

 

 

 

Nah, I think most just hope/assume our HC/GM are smart and good at their jobs and wouldn't do something like draft a comparatively crappy QB in an otherwise loaded class. Seriously... in the last 30-40 years how many QBs were so mediocre to bad at a tiny school against crappy competition? When I say comparatively, I mean consider what other QBs in that time were doing in terms of passing, too.

 

Hell you probably have to go back to Phil Simms to find the only really relevant example when he was drafted 7th 39 years ago.

 

Brett Favre went in the 2nd round... poor team that drafted him didn't even reap the benefits.

 

Matt Ryan had a significantly higher completion % than Allen 10 years ago and improved every year against Division I ACC teams.

 

Matthew Stafford might have ended his college career with only a slightly higher completion % than Allen but unlike Allen, Stafford improved significantly every single year as a starter against high level SEC competition.

 

 

Where is any of this for Allen? 3rd round project QB I'd absolutely get behind. Maybe even overdraft in the 2nd round because he does have the potential to be a Franchise QB. But you draft a QB in the top 10 of the 1st round because you're utterly confident he's going to be a Franchise QB, not because of his potential to be one.

 

Personally, I think he might drop precipitously... and I sure hope we don't bite.

[greeneblitz]

we all have our favorites, but out of the big 4, whomever the Bills pick will be good with me and should be good with any Bills fan, weve had literal garbage at qb for 20 years, well have a Blue chip QB for once in our history.

It's exciting!

[dezertbill]

Makes sense about having a deal in place to trade up to number two.  I believe it has to do with if Darnold isn't there. If he is Giants take him and Bills trade with Broncos for Mayfield.

[WideRightRevenge]

I want Baker ... but don't trade up beyond #6 to get him if he drops . .which I doubt  ..... if he's gone we have AJ ... see his college stats in a stacked SEC vs. this years draft class .. and come back in 2nd/3rd for Rudolph, Falk, White, etc.

						Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Career	Alabama					686	1026	66.9	9019	8.8	9.6	77	15	162.5
*2010	Alabama	SEC	FR	QB	13	30	48	62.5	389	8.1	9.4	3	0	151.2
*2011	Alabama	SEC	SO	QB	13	219	328	66.8	2634	8.0	8.3	16	5	147.3
*2012	Alabama	SEC	JR	QB	14	211	314	67.2	2933	9.3	10.8	30	3	175.3
*2013	Alabama	SEC	SR	QB	13	226	336	67.3	3063	9.1	9.8	28	7	167.2

[FearLess Price]

11 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

I'll not here to debate who is better

My point was darnold should sit for 1 year is accepted across the board

Allen for minimum 1, maybe 2

So your assertion that the bills signed aj mccarron as a backup to use a day 1 starter would then eliminate darnold by your logic as well

That was my point

 

 

Thats the thing. Darnold could aslp start by mid season depending how coaching feels he is doing. He might pull a Russel Wilson and light it up in camp. He has more of a chance to get on the field year one.

[billsredneck1]

1 hour ago, WideRightRevenge said:

I want Baker ... but don't trade up beyond #6 to get him if he drops . .which I doubt  ..... if he's gone we have AJ ... see his college stats in a stacked SEC vs. this years draft class .. and come back in 2nd/3rd for Rudolph, Falk, White, etc.

						Passing
Year	School	Conf	Class	Pos	G	Cmp	Att	Pct	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	TD	Int	Rate
Career	Alabama					686	1026	66.9	9019	8.8	9.6	77	15	162.5
*2010	Alabama	SEC	FR	QB	13	30	48	62.5	389	8.1	9.4	3	0	151.2
*2011	Alabama	SEC	SO	QB	13	219	328	66.8	2634	8.0	8.3	16	5	147.3
*2012	Alabama	SEC	JR	QB	14	211	314	67.2	2933	9.3	10.8	30	3	175.3
*2013	Alabama	SEC	SR	QB	13	226	336	67.3	3063	9.1	9.8	28	7	167.2

i agree.

 

 

i would not trade up unless baker or allen falls...and then it would be from 7 on. if the qbs fly off the board, i would take rudolph at 12 and keep all my picks. i don't expect any qb we draft would or will need to start this year.

 

as of right now, i am considering ajm the starter with possible franchise ability. i think he has been massively under rated and not one 1st. rd. qb this year had anywhere near the college success as a.j.

Edited April 5, 2018 by billsredneck1