Some concerning Josh Allen stats

[FeelingOnYouboty]

33 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

Footwork can be taught, arm strength cannot. Allen > Rosen.

 

Why are we pretending like Josh Rosen doesn't have a great arm? He can't throw it 70 yards like Allen but when is anyone ever throwing it that far in the NFL? Such a silly thing.

[NewEraBills]

32 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

Footwork can be taught, arm strength cannot. Allen > Rosen.

 

Arm strength?  Ball Placement > Arm Strength.  And Ball Placement is one of Allen's biggest issues because his arm is so strong he doesn't know when to dial it down.  This was evident at Wyoming, at the Senior Bowl throughout the week in practice and in the Senior Bowl game and it was also evident at the combine on the drill where the WR's had to tap their toes on the sideline.  To his credit in the other drills he turned things around and in the 2nd half o the Senior Bowl game he had some nice zip on some passes but there is not enough here to make me feel comfortable at all trading draft capital away and selecting him in the top picks.  If I were a team that had the idea of sitting him for two years then fine, I'd take him, probably not in the first five picks.  But we are not that team.  We are looking to upgrade the QB position via the draft.  Allen would not be an upgrade right now and who knows when he'd be.

[Buffalo Bills Detective]

3 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

[Tatonka68]

1 minute ago, FeelingOnYouboty said:

 

Why are we pretending like Josh Rosen doesn't have a great arm? He can't throw it 70 yards like Allen but when is anyone ever throwing it that far in the NFL? Such a silly thing.

Winds at New Era Field are not for the weak armed. Rosen arm is not bad, but Allens is the best. Allen > Rosen.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

7 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

Winds at New Era Field are not for the weak armed. Rosen arm is not bad, but Allens is the best. Allen > Rosen.

 

Silly boy lol

[Batman1876]

So all he needs to do is learn footwork, mechanics, decision making and how to read a defense how hard could that be. 

9 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

Winds at New Era Field are not for the weak armed. Rosen arm is not bad, but Allens is the best. Allen > Rosen.

Not sure if serious. 

[SouthNYfan]

10 hours ago, Yeezus said:

Adjusted completion percentage for dropped passes, throwaways & passes where QB was hit

• Rosen - 68.9%

• Mayfield - 68.4%

• L. Jackson - 64.7%

• Darnold - 59.8%

• J. Allen - 52.6%

Source: https://twitter.com/alex_valdezmhh/status/971839131981623298?s=21

Season-long, top draft QBs, % of aimed passes deemed catchable (min 200 atts)

Baker Mayfield 84.1% (best in NCAA)

Josh Rosen 77.9%

Lamar Jackson 77.6%

Sam Darnold 74.1%

Josh Allen 70.8% (92nd out of 100)

NCAA AVG: 76.0%

Source: https://twitter.com/TJCarter26/status/948911273877606400?s=09

PFF Drop Rates -

Sam Darnold (6.81%);

Josh Allen (7.84%);

Baker Mayfield (9.49%);

Josh Rosen (11.01%);

Lamar Jackson (12.04%)

Source: https://twitter.com/PFF_Neil/status/955928657129889792

 

Basically, everyone was blaming his bad WR's, but in fact he had one of the lowest drop rates out of all top prospects. 

 

Also everyone likes to mention how his best trait is his ability to escape pressure and make plays, well he is the worst top prospect in terms of that and the stats are literally right in your face to show you. everyone says Josh Rosen has a noodle arm and can't throw under pressure, yet he is by far the best QB in the draft at it. Why? Because he has good mechanics, footwork, and is deadly accurate...all things Allen isn't. 

 

He had one of the lowest "deemed catchable" percentages, right? 

 

What is "catchable" ?

Honest question.

Who decides that?

 

If you have crap WRs who aren't getting to where the ball is being thrown, is that the QBs fault?

 

I'd like to see some stats on the wr "catch zones" for his guys.

Like obj and Larry Fitzgerald catch anything within 10 yards of them, but a subpar we won't even get near the ball.

 

Stats don't mean everything.

 

I think Allen is raw and needs work, but could be a beast QB.

He also could be a pile of crap.

He has a ridiculous ceiling, and a very low floor.

He's a risk.

I'm not advocating for or against him, I'm just saying stats can be cherry picked.

[jrober38]

Josh Allen is horrible. 

 

Guys like him have no track record of success in the NFL over the past 20 years. 

[frogger]

54 minutes ago, Tatonka68 said:

Footwork can be taught, arm strength cannot. Allen > Rosen.

You’re correct it can’t be taught, it can be developed though...Aaron Rodgers was not known for having a strong arm coming out of Cal, now he’s got one of the strongest in the league.

[That_Guy]

Eh, his highlight reels look good and his lowlight reels look like crap.  i'm not a scout so i'll let them do their job and support whatever guy we get.

[BADOLBILZ]

10 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

Stay away from Josh “JP” Allen

 

JP might have been a lot better if he was bigger, stronger and had an extra 10mph of ball velocity like Allen has over him.

 

I'm not sold on Allen by any means but JP was not tall in the pocket and his strong arm would turn to a noodle on the run or off his back foot.........like most QB's.

 

Not hard to see why some team will fall in love with Allen's physical talent...........he is Big Ben on the hoof without all the weird rapey stuff.

 

  

[BillsFan2313]

10 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Played nobody. 

 

When he did play a power 5 school he sucked. 

 

When and who has a sub 60% QB in college succeeded in NFL?

 

Brett Favre and Jim Kelly

[Brand J]

5 minutes ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 

Brett Favre and Jim Kelly

You can add Dan Marino to that list as well. But all those guys played in a totally different era.

[Batman1876]

5 minutes ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 

Brett Favre and Jim Kelly

The last QBs to never achieve a 60% season in college and still succeed in the NFL playedin the 1980’s.

[MAJBobby]

1 hour ago, BrooklynBills said:

Stafford

 

I think if you put these other QBs in the Wyoming offense and asked them to do what they asked Allen to do then you would see similar completion % numbers.

 

Rosen would get me the most excited. I actually think Allen is my number 2.  Then maybe Darnold although I would be worried about the extremely simplified offense that he ran.  Mayfield scares me because his numbers are inflated by the scheme and his arm strength on the short throws is worse than the other 3. Everyone says Mayfield throws with anticipation, but when you watch some film of Mayfield you will see him double clutch and wait for guys to come open on the in breaking short stuff which won't work at the next level.  Mayfield is not the dual threat nor does he have the arm talent of Russell Wilson so i don't see the appeal there.

 

Its not about hiw offense. It is about his decision making his scatter shot ball placement 

 

see i can look at just a QB. If Wentz didnt happen Allen would be a mid round pick

16 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

JP might have been a lot better if he was bigger, stronger and had an extra 10mph of ball velocity like Allen has over him.

 

I'm not sold on Allen by any means but JP was not tall in the pocket and his strong arm would turn to a noodle on the run or off his back foot.........like most QB's.

 

Not hard to see why some team will fall in love with Allen's physical talent...........he is Big Ben on the hoof without all the weird rapey stuff.

 

  

 

Yeah Bigger, Stronger and 10mph better make up for the horrible accuracy and ball placement lol. 

 

And allen is no where near as accurate as Ben was. 

12 minutes ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 

Brett Favre and Jim Kelly

 

Going WAY WAY back arent we. 

 

Ok in Modern Football. How is that

Edited March 15, 2018 by MAJBobby

[BillsFan2313]

9 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Its not about hiw offense. It is about his decision making his scatter shot ball placement 

 

see i can look at just a QB. If Wentz didnt happen Allen would be a mid round pick

 

Yeah Bigger, Stronger and 10mph better make up for the horrible accuracy and ball placement lol. 

 

And allen is no where near as accurate as Ben was. 

 

Going WAY WAY back arent we. 

 

Ok in Modern Football. How is that

 

You asked a question, and I answered. Relax. Be specific from the jump. 

[RalphWilson'sNewWar]

IF Josh Allen is the Pick then I just would like to see what happens if a QB is tucked away and allowed to work on his own game.

 

he won’t be distracted by weekly prep as a starter, or going to school and what not.  His job for 1 season and maybe 2 would be solely building his own game.

 

then when he goes in, IF it works, Buffalo then has a QB until 2034.

Edited March 15, 2018 by RalphWilson'sNewWar
Addition

[billsbackto81]

10 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

Stafford, Cutler, Tyrod Taylor all had comp% below 60% in college and improved once they got to the NFL. It doesn't always work that way though. 

 

Allen played on a bad team in 2017 and was running for his life most of the time with receivers that dropped a lot of passes.

 

Daniel Jeremiah's top 50 players in this year's draft and Allen is listed at 14th behind Darnold, Rosen, and Mayfield. Of those three listed the only one I like is Mayfield. All of them have warts IMO and Allen is no different. Rosen has durability issues and Darnold has fumbling issues. 

 

RANK

14

Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

 

 

Allen has ideal size, arm strength and mobility. At Wyoming, he split time underneath and in the shotgun. He has quick feet in his setup and a smooth, fluid release. He's at his best driving the ball to the outside. He generates outrageous velocity and can squeeze the ball into very tight windows. He must improve on touch throws, but he has shown the ability to change ball speed and throw with loft. He needs to throw with more anticipation and there are times where he really locks onto his initial read, which can lead to pass breakups and turnovers. While he has room to improve on his overall ball placement, there were numerous dropped balls by his receivers in every game I studied. Allen's combination of athleticism and strength allows him to avoid free rushers and shake off tacklers. He's an aggressive runner and he's been effective on designed QB runs as well as scrambles. Allen isn't a finished product, but he offers unlimited upside, provided his drafting team exercises patience.

I stopped reading right there. All I need is another QB that can't throw receivers open and locks into one in particular.

 

Unfortunately I have a bad feeling he is the one OBD has their eye on. High ceiling, canon arm and his physical traits are appealing. And we just acquired the right kind of QB to bring him along while he takes in the pro game.

[BillsFan2313]

19 minutes ago, JayBaller10 said:

You can add Dan Marino to that list as well. But all those guys played in a totally different era.

 

If they throw a lot, which Marino and Favre did, what does era matter? 

[dpberr]

The GM who drafts Josh Allen with a first round pick will be fired in three years.  

 

If you're not accurate in college football, you're not going to magically become accurate in the NFL.  He's not even close to that 60% metric.  

 

 

 

 

[Tatonka68]

58 minutes ago, jrober38 said:

Josh Allen is horrible. 

 

Guys like him have no track record of success in the NFL over the past 20 years. 

How can you say he is horrible, on what evidence do you judge him. It takes two for a completion not one.

[MAJBobby]

11 minutes ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 

If they throw a lot, which Marino and Favre did, what does era matter? 

 

Matters because alot harder to throw the football in that era because of the way defense was allowed to play 

1 minute ago, Tatonka68 said:

How can you say he is horrible, on what evidence do you judge him. It takes two for a completion not one.

 

Takes one for proper ball placement 

[Tatonka68]

21 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Matters because alot harder to throw the football in that era because of the way defense was allowed to play 

 

Takes one for proper ball placement 

ball placement looked great at Senior Bowl, maybe you should take a look.

[MAJBobby]

Just now, Tatonka68 said:

ball placement looked great at Senior Bowl, maybe you should take a look.

 

I did. 

 

Yeah it was good. Doesnt change two years of tape 

[dezertbill]

No worries.  I’m telling Ya the Bills are all in on Sam Darnold or Baker Mayfield

Edited March 15, 2018 by dezertbill

[thebandit27]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

JP might have been a lot better if he was bigger, stronger and had an extra 10mph of ball velocity like Allen has over him.

 

I'm not sold on Allen by any means but JP was not tall in the pocket and his strong arm would turn to a noodle on the run or off his back foot.........like most QB's.

 

Not hard to see why some team will fall in love with Allen's physical talent...........he is Big Ben on the hoof without all the weird rapey stuff.

 

  

 

 

Seriously though, there really might be something to this kid.  When he's good, he's really good.  I just don't know that I could get comfortable enough with his inconsistency to pound the table for him.

[NewEraBills]

52 minutes ago, billsbackto81 said:

I stopped reading right there. All I need is another QB that can't throw receivers open and locks into one in particular.

 

Unfortunately I have a bad feeling he is the one OBD has their eye on. High ceiling, canon arm and his physical traits are appealing. And we just acquired the right kind of QB to bring him along while he takes in the pro game.

And this was on display at the Senior Bowl.  Even when he cleaned things up a little in the 2nd half it was him throwing to his first read who just happened to be open.  When I watch Allen I see a guy who is way too unfinished, unpolished and risky to take in the first three rounds.  Ball placement and accuracy are way too spotty.  People point out the Senior Bowl and I say yes, but let's look at the entire game and the entire week.  His game was reflective of his week.  His week started off bad just like his game did.  His week improved.  In the 2nd half of the senior bowl his accuracy was better.  But what was not better?  His mechanics and processing the defense.

 

To me he's just way too much of a project.

 

People can cite Kelly and Favre all they want but here's the thing with those two.  The former played at Miami and they played schools like ND, Nebraska, OU, Penn State which were all great teams in the late 70's and early 80's.  You could see Kelly had something special about him.

 

Favre played at Southern Miss which is a small school, but they played big conferences, SEC being one of them.  Favre also displayed the IT factor and would have been in consideration for the Heisman had he not gotten in a car wreck.  From the moment he took his first snap under center you knew there was something special about Favre.

 

Josh Allen has none of this.  NONE.

16 minutes ago, MAJBobby said:

 

I did. 

 

Yeah it was good. Doesnt change two years of tape 

It actually wasn't good.  I know you know that you don't have to agree with him LOL.  It was decent in the 2nd half.  Why are people forgetting the 1st half?  LOL.  His first half was bad.

Edited March 15, 2018 by NewEraBills

[BADOLBILZ]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

 

 

Seriously though, there really might be something to this kid.  When he's good, he's really good.  I just don't know that I could get comfortable enough with his inconsistency to pound the table for him.

 

 

Exactly how I feel.

 

There are actually things in all the top 5 prospects that make me think they could become good NFL QB's...........I've never gone into a draft where I didn't at least HATE some of the top QB prospects let alone like all of the top 5.    In a given lean QB year, any one of these top 5 could go #1 overall.....so people talking this group down feels wrong.

 

The odds are clearly against not having at least one bust in the top 5 QB's taken..........but then what were the odds that the first 3 off the board in 2004 would be HOF'ers?   

[#34fan]

Kid's got BUST written al over him in big red letters. -I pass.

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Exactly how I feel.

 

There are actually things in all the top 5 prospects that make me think they could become good NFL QB's...........I've never gone into a draft where I didn't at least HATE some of the top QB prospects let alone like all of the top 5.    In a given lean QB year, any one of these top 5 could go #1 overall.....so people talking this group down feels wrong.

 

The odds are clearly against not having at least one bust in the top 5 QB's taken..........but then what were the odds that the first 3 off the board in 2004 would be HOF'ers?   

 

I feel like we're in lockstep on this class for the most part.  Any one of these guys would fit as a "I'm willing to miss on this kid" type of prospect.

[MAJBobby]

Allen is going to the the JP Losman of a very strong QB Class. 

[DJB]

Allen worries me the most. 

[Chuck Wagon]

Allen makes me nervous, I certain have Rosen and Darnold over him, but man, if he's good there's going to be A LOT of crow served up.

[mead107]

Take him in the second round 

[Nihilarian]

18 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Not a long list of successful sub 60% QBs in NFL

 

Underwear Olympics mean nada. Tebow put the ball where it needed to be against air. 

 

Horrible accuracy when real bullets flying. 

 

Stay away from JP Allen

 

and seems i wasnt wrong about Taylor was I. 

 

And for the Record. Coming into the season I LOVED Allen. 

 

Then the season happened. 

 

However just like Taylor JP Allen if drafted gets two season to so improvement with his scattershot accuracy and poor choices 

3

You were wrong about Taylor as he is STILL a starting QB in the NFL and now will be starting for the Browns.

 

If you loved Allen coming into the season then you must be aware that he came into college a skinny kid and grew into that big frame. He also had a much better supporting cast around him in his first year at Wyoming. The thing is, that anyone who was any good in 2016 left the team in 2017 and he basically was forced to deal with a bad surrounding cast all season. Bad offensive line, bad receiving corps and literally no run game to help him. 

 

The kid has only played in college for two years and still has room to further develop into a better QB. If you actually watched Allen play last year you would have noticed that in the games against the better schools the team around him really stunk it up and therefore he didn't play well at all considering he was literally running for his life in those games.

 

Iowa L 24-3 Comp% 57.5

Oregon 49-13 comp% 37.5

Boise St 24-14 comp% 44.4

 

Yes, Allen had some bad games last year and yet he still went 8-5 while winning the Idaho Potato Bowl. USC's Sam Darnold lost to Ohio St in the Cotton Bowl 24-7 with a completion percentage of 57.8%!  UCLA's Josh Rosen didn't play in the Cactus Bowl and they lost 35-17. UCLA went 6-7 last year.

 

Do I think this kid will be a future NFL star....YES! Do I know that he will be...NO! This young man is going to get drafted early because of his potential. He has an arm that can throw frozen ropes all over the field just like Aaron Rodgers

 

Edited March 16, 2018 by Nihilarian

[jrober38]

9 hours ago, Tatonka68 said:

How can you say he is horrible, on what evidence do you judge him. It takes two for a completion not one.

 

I've read enough scouting reports to understand that his accuracy is a major issue, and it takes about 2 minutes to figure out that college QBs with accuracy problems never work out in the NFL. 

[Nihilarian]

12 hours ago, dpberr said:

The GM who drafts Josh Allen with a first round pick will be fired in three years.  

 

If you're not accurate in college football, you're not going to magically become accurate in the NFL.  He's not even close to that 60% metric.  

 

This isn't an 8-year NFL vet we are talking about here it's a kid who only played two years in college. He already showed great improvement with a better supporting cast and better coaching at the senior bowl. (watch the vid)

 

Yes, players that have been used to throwing a certain way for a long time have great difficulty changing anything related to mechanics, footwork, throwing motion. The reason scouts are so high on him is because he isn't set in his ways and can be developed with proper coaching. 

 

I'll support any QB the Buffalo Bills draft this year even if it's Lamar Jackson and I don't care much for Rosen with his durability issues or Darnold with his fumbling concerns. 

 

Call me crazy but I like Mayfield and Allen with the latter being my #1. I watched his senior bowl/ combine performance and he reminds me of Big Ben...only with a stronger arm. 

[JaCrispy]

What would anyone want to draft a project when there are guys in the draft ready to step in day 1...how many QBs drafted on potential actually reach it? Most successful NFL QBs have shown they were successful in college first...I cant even think of anything that Allen does well.

[MAJBobby]

16 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

You were wrong about Taylor as he is STILL a starting QB in the NFL and now will be starting for the Browns.

 

If you loved Allen coming into the season then you must be aware that he came into college a skinny kid and grew into that big frame. He also had a much better supporting cast around him in his first year at Wyoming. The thing is, that anyone who was any good in 2016 left the team in 2017 and he basically was forced to deal with a bad surrounding cast all season. Bad offensive line, bad receiving corps and literally no run game to help him. 

 

The kid has only played in college for two years and still has room to further develop into a better QB. If you actually watched Allen play last year you would have noticed that in the games against the better schools the team around him really stunk it up and therefore he didn't play well at all considering he was literally running for his life in those games.

 

Iowa L 24-3 Comp% 57.5

Oregon 49-13 comp% 37.5

Boise St 24-14 comp% 44.4

 

Yes, Allen had some bad games last year and yet he still went 8-5 while winning the Idaho Potato Bowl. USC's Sam Darnold lost to Ohio St in the Cotton Bowl 24-7 with a completion percentage of 57.8%!  UCLA's Josh Rosen didn't play in the Cactus Bowl and they lost 35-17. UCLA went 6-7 last year.

 

Do I think this kid will be a future NFL star....YES! Do I know that he will be...NO! This young man is going to get drafted early because of his potential. He has an arm that can throw frozen ropes all over the field just like Aaron Rodgers

 

 

Cool competion percentage used for Ball placement. His decision making is a mess. He has scattershot accuracy. And it didnt get better at all this season. He it a late first prospect as best. And someone i definitely dont want to trade up for. 

[thebandit27]

17 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

You were wrong about Taylor as he is STILL a starting QB in the NFL and now will be starting for the Browns.

 

If you loved Allen coming into the season then you must be aware that he came into college a skinny kid and grew into that big frame. He also had a much better supporting cast around him in his first year at Wyoming. The thing is, that anyone who was any good in 2016 left the team in 2017 and he basically was forced to deal with a bad surrounding cast all season. Bad offensive line, bad receiving corps and literally no run game to help him. 

 

The kid has only played in college for two years and still has room to further develop into a better QB. If you actually watched Allen play last year you would have noticed that in the games against the better schools the team around him really stunk it up and therefore he didn't play well at all considering he was literally running for his life in those games.

 

Iowa L 24-3 Comp% 57.5

Oregon 49-13 comp% 37.5

Boise St 24-14 comp% 44.4

 

Yes, Allen had some bad games last year and yet he still went 8-5 while winning the Idaho Potato Bowl. USC's Sam Darnold lost to Ohio St in the Cotton Bowl 24-7 with a completion percentage of 57.8%!  UCLA's Josh Rosen didn't play in the Cactus Bowl and they lost 35-17. UCLA went 6-7 last year.

 

Do I think this kid will be a future NFL star....YES! Do I know that he will be...NO! This young man is going to get drafted early because of his potential. He has an arm that can throw frozen ropes all over the field just like Aaron Rodgers

 

 

I'll challenge anyone that says that Josh Allen is a guaranteed bust to go back and watch that Iowa game again.

 

That was not a kid that was overmatched; it was a kid that hung in there despite getting his arse kicked and his team failing brutally around him time and again.