Vontae a Bill!!

[SoCal Deek]

1 hour ago, SWATeam said:

You do know that Sammy is a FA, right?  What is LA left with from that trade?

What LA is left with is of no concern to a Bills fan. After spending two first round picks on a WR the Bills are now left with a second round pick and no significant production out of Sammy, some five years later? Fantastic!

[YoloinOhio]

 

[SWATeam]

3 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

What LA is left with is of no concern to a Bills fan. After spending two first round picks on a WR the Bills are now left with a second round pick and no significant production out of Sammy, some five years later? Fantastic!

What we spent on Sammy is sunk costs and of no concern to anyone.  Which would you rather have- Sammy on the team last year and then lose him to free agency, or Gaines last year AND a 2nd round pick this year?

[SoCal Deek]

Just now, SWATeam said:

What we spent on Sammy is sunk costs and of no concern to anyone.  Which would you rather have- Sammy on the team last year and then lose him to free agency, or Gaines last year AND a 2nd round pick this year?

Not really my point. 

[thebandit27]

13 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Deonte Thompson with the Bills had about the same YPG as Sammy had with the Rams (31.9 to 39.5), despite being far less talented and showing up mid-season. He had 100 receiving yards in his first game off the plane from Chicago. That excuse doesn't work.

 

That's because yardage and receptions are almost always a function of targets, and Deonte got the same number of targets per game as Watkins.

 

If you include Thompson's 5 games with Chicago, their numbers are almost identical across the board...until you look at receptions of 20+ yards (9-7 in favor of Sammy), first downs (33-17 in favor of Sammy) and TDs (8-1 in favor of Sammy).

 

That's why it's important to look at volume-based statistics versus performance-based ones.

[BADOLBILZ]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Deonte Thompson with the Bills had about the same YPG as Sammy had with the Rams (31.9 to 39.5), despite being far less talented and showing up mid-season. He had 100 receiving yards in his first game off the plane from Chicago. That excuse doesn't work.

 

Nah....bad comparison......Deonte and Tyrod were together for two full years in Baltimore and then again in the 2015 offseason/preseason in Buffalo.   Like Stevie and Fitz once were in Buffalo they were the reserves who were working together every day in Baltimore.    

 

[HappyDays]

No salary details yet? Weird.

4 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

That's because yardage and receptions are almost always a function of targets, and Deonte got the same number of targets per game as Watkins.

 

If you include Thompson's 5 games with Chicago, their numbers are almost identical across the board...until you look at receptions of 20+ yards (9-7 in favor of Sammy), first downs (33-17 in favor of Sammy) and TDs (8-1 in favor of Sammy).

 

That's why it's important to look at volume-based statistics versus performance-based ones.

 

Sammy is a much better receiver than Thompson. But his production wasn't low just because he showed up late. I was just using Thompson as an example. He produced just fine even though he wasn't here until a few games into the season.

[BADOLBILZ]

17 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

Hey, i said that weeks ago! Where is my gold star 

 

 

Coach was on this idea long ago..........you gotta' keep up with the bickering threads about Sammy and Tyrod.

 

Watkins should have his choice of several good options to do a one year prove-it deal and either come out like Alshon Jeffery or Terrell Pryor..............my guess is he will have a big year........and with the dearth of WR talent in recent drafts the cupboard of available WR is going to get increasingly sparse..........and he will be able to turn that into a HUGE payday next offseason.......which would have been his originally scheduled FA year had the Bills picked up his option.

[thebandit27]

9 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

No salary details yet? Weird.

 

Sammy is a much better receiver than Thompson. But his production wasn't low just because he showed up late. I was just using Thompson as an example. He produced just fine even though he wasn't here until a few games into the season.

 

I would argue that Thompson's 27 catches weren't "just fine" (EDIT: that probably came off as a snarky comment--it isn't intended that way FWIW).  He was simply the least lousy WR on this team in terms of production.

 

Then again, he wasn't really asked to do much more than run the 2 or 3 routes he's capable of running well (which is actually good coaching IMO), so it doesn't surprise me.

 

The reason Sammy's volume-based production wasn't there is because of the way McVay runs his offense.  He likes to rotate his WRs to keep them fresh and give them an advantage against opposing DBs.  His target-based production was right where it's been the rest of his career: very good.  8 TDs on 70 targets is crazy.

Edited February 27, 2018 by thebandit27

[BrooklynBills]

Great signing. Better than Gaines and don't have to commit long term to him. I think we are definitely taking a CB in the 2nd or 3rd round.  Actually Donte Jackson is pretty logical possibility in late 2nd or 3rd round.  I know, I know.... another CB.  But secondary is a strength and I espouse to the theory that in roster building alot of times it better to solidify a strength.

[Doc]

13 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Not really my point. 

 

If the Bills had kept Sammy last season and then decided to let him walk in UFA this year, they'd still have sunk 2-1st rounders into him, gotten little in production, and had nothing to show for it except for maybe a comp pick in 2019.  This way was far better. 

[HappyDays]

16 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Nah....bad comparison......Deonte and Tyrod were together for two full years in Baltimore and then again in the 2015 offseason/preseason in Buffalo.   Like Stevie and Fitz once were in Buffalo they were the reserves who were working together every day in Baltimore.    

 

 

Sammy's production decreased the longer he was with the Rams. His best game, and his only 100-yard game, came in week 3. From weeks 1 to 8 he had an average of 41.4 YPG. From weeks 9 to 15 he had an average of 37.4 YPG (if you include the playoff game he had an average of 35.6 YPG after week 8). And he had a 0 yard game in week 5 which is skewing the difference. You can't look at his game log and tell me his time with the team made any difference. His last 5 weeks of the season (including the playoff game) he didn't crack 40 yards once.

Edited February 27, 2018 by HappyDays

[26CornerBlitz]

 

[Domdab99]

I like it, but what do you do if Donte Jackson is still on the board when we pick at 21/22?  Hard not to go with him. 

[BADOLBILZ]

23 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Sammy's production decreased the longer he was with the Rams. His best game, and his only 100-yard game, came in week 3. From weeks 1 to 8 he had an average of 41.4 YPG. From weeks 9 to 15 he had an average of 37.4 YPG (if you include the playoff game he had an average of 35.6 YPG after week 8). And he had a 0 yard game in week 5 which is skewing the difference. You can't look at his game log and tell me his time with the team made any difference. His last 5 weeks of the season (including the playoff game) he didn't crack 40 yards once.

 

If you'd followed the Rams season you'd know that he simply wasn't targeted.    He was literally used as a decoy........he drew the coverage of Richard Sherman, Josh Norman, Jalen Ramsey and Patrick Peterson.........and the Rams simply threw to easier, quick hitting matchups against #2 and #3 CB's with Woods and Kupp when they weren't using the hell out of Gurley.    Goff doesn't throw a good deep ball.....he's not a good fit with Watkins......but teams had to respect Watkins so he still drew the #1 CB and got safety help deep.   This GREATLY opened up their running game.  Do yourself a favor and check Todd Gurley's stats from 2016 versus 2017........makes life a lot easier on a RB when safeties can't cheat up into the box.   McVay is a great play caller but Gurley without space to work is not anywhere near the same back.  

[aristocrat]

whats the contract number?

 

[greenwithenvy]

4 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Learn to watch football.

Watkins stretched the field for them and drew multiple players in coverage.

He's the reason kupp and woods had so much free space.

A player's impact on a game goes far beyond just the stat sheet (this goes both positively and negatively for many guys, such as tyrod holding the ball too long lowers his ints which looks good on paper but actually isn't that great during a game)

Watkins helped that offense tremendously .

 

Feel free to read this link below from a Rams' analyst, instead of a from the perspective of a Bills fan who probably didn't watch a single Rams game.

 

 

https://www.turfshowtimes.com/2017/11/29/16712132/los-angeles-rams-nfl-sammy-watkins-tape-study-scouting-report

 

He has another article that he's not sure the Rams offense scheme requires a true #1 wr, so they might still let Sammy walk, but that's not because of his talent

 

(For the record, I am not upset we traded Sammy, as Gaines played great for us and we have another second round pick this year from it. To act like Sammy isn't an impact wr though is just wrong)

I love the ego on fans that tell others to 'learn to watch football'.  Get over yourself.  You have no idea the knowledge/experience of who you are talking to.  The assumption that you're a more intelligent fan is hilarious.

 

As to the rest, please.  The Rams traded a player + a 2nd for a 1 year rental who their scheme uses as a decoy or field stretcher.  LMAO.  Not bloody likely.  They thought they were getting a potential #1 or a #2 at worst.  Once again, Sammy came up short of expectations.  Think the Rams make the trade again with the benefit of hindsight?  After all, he did what he was supposed to.  What more could they want?

 

Potential without production is meaningless.

[BADOLBILZ]

3 minutes ago, Domdab99 said:

I like it, but what do you do if Donte Jackson is still on the board when we pick at 21/22?  Hard not to go with him. 

 

 

Actually it should be easy to pass on a CB in round 1 in this system.

 

Zone corners are typically cheap and easier to find............case in point, Vontae Davis.

 

In a primarily man coverage defense he'd be suspect........but in zone he projects well even if he has lost a step due to age/injury because he tackles well and has shown good ball skills.    

[YoloinOhio]

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

In his prime a few years back when the Colts first got him from Miami he was very, very good.  Not sure we are quite getting that same player but he is a solid pickup, no question about it.  

 

The one thing I didn't like about Gaines when he was healthy was that he drops interceptions.  Bad hands.

 

Turnovers are critical.    EJ made up for it by having a great year stripping the ball away............but Vontae Davis has much better ball skills, IMO.

 

I could see Vontae picking off 4 passes this year because he's actually done that.........Gaines rarely catches a football that hits his hands.  

[WMDman]

3 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

The one thing I didn't like about Gaines when he was healthy was that he drops interceptions.  Bad hands.

 

Turnovers are critical.    EJ made up for it by having a great year stripping the ball away............but Vontae Davis has much better ball skills, IMO.

 

I could see Vontae picking off 4 passes this year because he's actually done that.........Gaines rarely catches a football that hits his hands.  

That pick he shoulda had when we played TB and DJax ripped it away from him was painful

[Domdab99]

10 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Actually it should be easy to pass on a CB in round 1 in this system.

 

Zone corners are typically cheap and easier to find............case in point, Vontae Davis.

 

In a primarily man coverage defense he'd be suspect........but in zone he projects well even if he has lost a step due to age/injury because he tackles well and has shown good ball skills.    

 

Yeah, I know what Davis brings...I was talking about Jackson. Rare talent. 

[folz]

Some of you just need to get over the whole Sammy thing. How does a thread about Vontae Davis become a Sammy thread? (I know, and now I'm going to add to the problem.)

 

Is Sammy talented? Yes. But, is he a bust to this point in his career? Yes.

 

He was a #4 overall pick that has produced 47 yards/game and 0.38 TDs/game thus far in his 4-year career (I didn't subtract games he was injured because a team drafting a guy that high expects him to be available). And yet he expects to be paid like a top flight WR? The Bills were smart to walk away with a year's service out of Gaines and a 2nd round pick.

 

And now he's getting the Lee Evans decoy theory treatment too? Sheesh.

 

The most important question though is...is he a member of the Bills currently? No. So time to move on and stop talking about him. He may eventually bust out, but how much did you want this team to pay to wait and see? Not to mention his self-professed attitude problems. At this point, I don't care how many draft picks he cost us or what the final balance sheet is. He's gone and that is all in the past now. Get over it and let's move on.

 

 

Now back to our regularly scheduled program...

 

Great pickup! Welcome to the Bills Vontae!

[SouthNYfan]

33 minutes ago, greenwithenvy said:

I love the ego on fans that tell others to 'learn to watch football'.  Get over yourself.  You have no idea the knowledge/experience of who you are talking to.  The assumption that you're a more intelligent fan is hilarious.

 

As to the rest, please.  The Rams traded a player + a 2nd for a 1 year rental who their scheme uses as a decoy or field stretcher.  LMAO.  Not bloody likely.  They thought they were getting a potential #1 or a #2 at worst.  Once again, Sammy came up short of expectations.  Think the Rams make the trade again with the benefit of hindsight?  After all, he did what he was supposed to.  What more could they want?

 

Potential without production is meaningless.

 

The production is there in the case.

Stat sheets for a single player do not show their true worth many times.

It's one reason why a player with seemingly worse statistics wins an MVP, or why you can't build a team based on fantasy football statistics.

 

Claiming Watkins was a worse wr than kupp based solely on his statistics is absurd, and proves my point that, in this case, I am positive this person did not watch any footage/games with Watkins on the Rams.

 

He drew double coverages on the outside, would be stacked next to kupp and draw the double on a deeper slant, leaving kupp wide open underneath.

The Rams system rotates receivers though multiple positions on the field and doesn't focus one guy.

 

I actually provided a very good article which breaks down exactly how valuable Watkins was to them, that it's beyond box numbers.

 

I'll use the Bills as an example, 2002 eric moulds and peerless price had almost identical yardage, with price having a higher ypc.

Moulds was a legit #1 who drew doubles, price had it easy on the other side.

He went to Atlanta and was barely average.

Why?

He didn't have anybody to draw coverage.

 

 

A top talent wr eats coverages, leaving the other guys open.

That's a fact.

If you don't know that, then you don't watch football, or don't know what you're watching, which proves my statement of "learn to watch football"

Has to do with facts, not ego.

[thebandit27]

Ian Rapoport ‏ Verified account @RapSheet 6m6 minutes ago More The #Bills signed former #Colts CB Vontae Davis to a 1-year worth $5M base, source said, with $3.5M of that guaranteed. The max he can earn is $8M.

 

Leavs Buffalo with ~$28.8M in cap space at the moment. Figure $8M of that will go to draft picks, so you've got ~$20M to spend on re-signings and UFAs

[Logic]

Just now, thebandit27 said:

Ian Rapoport ‏ Verified account @RapSheet 6m6 minutes ago More The #Bills signed former #Colts CB Vontae Davis to a 1-year worth $5M base, source said, with $3.5M of that guaranteed. The max he can earn is $8M.

 

Leavs Buffalo with ~$28.8M in cap space at the moment. Figure $8M of that will go to draft picks, so you've got ~$20M to spend on re-signings and UFAs

Reads like a 1 year, $3.5 million deal with incentives. If he starts 13+ games, that's a bargain, and is DEFINITELY less than Gaines is going to get on the open market.

[26CornerBlitz]

1 minute ago, thebandit27 said:

Ian Rapoport ‏ Verified account @RapSheet 6m6 minutes ago More The #Bills signed former #Colts CB Vontae Davis to a 1-year worth $5M base, source said, with $3.5M of that guaranteed. The max he can earn is $8M.

 

Leavs Buffalo with ~$28.8M in cap space at the moment. Figure $8M of that will go to draft picks, so you've got ~$20M to spend on re-signings and UFAs

 

Good deal for the Bills and Vontae gets a chance to set himself up for a final multi-year contract to close out his career. 

[thebandit27]

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

Reads like a 1 year, $3.5 million deal with incentives. If he starts 13+ games, that's a bargain, and is DEFINITELY less than Gaines is going to get on the open market.

 

Indeed

 

4 minutes ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

 

Good deal for the Bills and Vontae gets a chance to set himself up for a final multi-year contract to close out his career. 

 

Indeed again...plus, gives the team a chance to draft a zone corner in the mid-rounds and coach him up to replace Davis in another year (and get the much-coveted COMP PICK!!!)

[Mountain Man]

5 hours ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

Learn to watch football.

Watkins stretched the field for them and drew multiple players in coverage.

He's the reason kupp and woods had so much free space.

A player's impact on a game goes far beyond just the stat sheet (this goes both positively and negatively for many guys, such as tyrod holding the ball too long lowers his ints which looks good on paper but actually isn't that great during a game)

Watkins helped that offense tremendously .

 

Feel free to read this link below from a Rams' analyst, instead of a from the perspective of a Bills fan who probably didn't watch a single Rams game.

 

 

https://www.turfshowtimes.com/2017/11/29/16712132/los-angeles-rams-nfl-sammy-watkins-tape-study-scouting-report

 

He has another article that he's not sure the Rams offense scheme requires a true #1 wr, so they might still let Sammy walk, but that's not because of his talent

 

(For the record, I am not upset we traded Sammy, as Gaines played great for us and we have another second round pick this year from it. To act like Sammy isn't an impact wr though is just wrong)

 

Yet they are letting him walk in free agency. The guy is all potential, no production.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

That's a great deal. 

[HappyDays]

 

[Ittakestime]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

That is a lot of money and takes up a good chunk of our remaining cap.

 

That deal flips the signing to horrible.  5 million should have been the max with the incentives.

 

What is Beane doing??

Edited February 27, 2018 by Ittakestime

[thebandit27]

3 minutes ago, Ittakestime said:

 

That is a lot of money and takes up a good chunk of our remaining cap.

 

That deal flips the signing to horrible.  5 million should have been the max with the incentives.

 

What is Beane doing??

 

What are you talking about???

 

His base deal value is $5M.  He can earn up to $8M in incentives, which means that the additional $3M doesn't count against the cap.

 

$5M for a starting CB, when you're paying your other starting CB a rookie salary, is a steal.

 

[MTBill]

No time to read this whole thread....

 

I like the move - save a draft pick - and money that Gaines will want...  Of course others here will be all - 'There goes our compensatory picks in 2019'.... 

 

We have 3 FA CB this offseason - this move replaces one of them at least.  Who knows what we do otherwise - EJ G could still be in Buffalo if he isn't asking for the moon in salary - but I expect he wants more than the Bills want to pay him.  This is saving/clearing cap room for other FA moves - and quite possibly a low risk upgrade.

 

[Royale with Cheese]

21 minutes ago, Ittakestime said:

 

That is a lot of money and takes up a good chunk of our remaining cap.

 

That deal flips the signing to horrible.  5 million should have been the max with the incentives.

 

What is Beane doing??

 

Come on.....

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

34 minutes ago, Ittakestime said:

 

That is a lot of money and takes up a good chunk of our remaining cap.

 

That deal flips the signing to horrible.  5 million should have been the max with the incentives.

 

What is Beane doing??

Dude....you have some of the most awful takes

[Chuck Schick]

1 hour ago, SouthNYfan said:

 

The production is there in the case.

Stat sheets for a single player do not show their true worth many times.

It's one reason why a player with seemingly worse statistics wins an MVP, or why you can't build a team based on fantasy football statistics.

 

Claiming Watkins was a worse wr than kupp based solely on his statistics is absurd, and proves my point that, in this case, I am positive this person did not watch any footage/games with Watkins on the Rams.

 

He drew double coverages on the outside, would be stacked next to kupp and draw the double on a deeper slant, leaving kupp wide open underneath.

The Rams system rotates receivers though multiple positions on the field and doesn't focus one guy.

 

I actually provided a very good article which breaks down exactly how valuable Watkins was to them, that it's beyond box numbers.

 

I'll use the Bills as an example, 2002 eric moulds and peerless price had almost identical yardage, with price having a higher ypc.

Moulds was a legit #1 who drew doubles, price had it easy on the other side.

He went to Atlanta and was barely average.

Why?

He didn't have anybody to draw coverage.

 

 

A top talent wr eats coverages, leaving the other guys open.

That's a fact.

If you don't know that, then you don't watch football, or don't know what you're watching, which proves my statement of "learn to watch football"

Has to do with facts, not ego.

You're right in that a WR's stats can be skewed or misleading.  

But the article you cited was more of an opinion-piece that clearly had a point of view it was trying to defend.  So it cherry-picked 10 or so clips from the season to make its point.  

I think the consensus from just about everyone else is that Sammy was pretty average, all things considered. Even the arguments in favor of the Rams tagging or re-signing him are that a full year working with Goff will result in a much better performance.  Not many would be on board with that if they thought he was going to duplicate his 2017 showing. 

[SouthNYfan]

1 minute ago, Chuck Schick said:

You're right in that a WR's stats can be skewed or misleading.  

But the article you cited was more of an opinion-piece that clearly had a point of view it was trying to defend.  So it cherry-picked 10 or so clips from the season to make its point.  

I think the consensus from just about everyone else is that Sammy was pretty average, all things considered. Even the arguments in favor of the Rams tagging or re-signing him are that a full year working with Goff will result in a much better performance.  Not many would be on board with that if they thought he was going to duplicate his 2017 showing. 

 

Maybe I was a little brash, but my point in defending Sammy was people speaking like he was trash and did nothing.

I don't think it's a coincidence that the Rams changed coaches, and added watkins, woods, and kupp and turned into the #1 scoring offense (from #32 the previous year)

If they let Sammy walk, we will see who they replace him with, and see how their offense looks without him.

My point was that he isn't the hot garbage people think he is, even if I was a little harsh in my way of going about it.

 

[Ittakestime]

40 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

What are you talking about???

 

His base deal value is $5M.  He can earn up to $8M in incentives, which means that the additional $3M doesn't count against the cap.

 

$5M for a starting CB, when you're paying your other starting CB a rookie salary, is a steal.

 

 

For a 30 year old CB, who was demoted last year?  He should have got the David Amerson deal:

 

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/kansas-city-chiefs/david-amerson-12332/

[BigBuff423]

1 hour ago, thebandit27 said:

Ian Rapoport ‏ Verified account @RapSheet 6m6 minutes ago More The #Bills signed former #Colts CB Vontae Davis to a 1-year worth $5M base, source said, with $3.5M of that guaranteed. The max he can earn is $8M.

 

Leavs Buffalo with ~$28.8M in cap space at the moment. Figure $8M of that will go to draft picks, so you've got ~$20M to spend on re-signings and UFAs

 

And people need to keep in mind, this is before any additional trades / cuts that are most likely to come which will add to the pool of money, that is mostly needed just for 2018 based on projected Cap position for 2019. So, if / when guys like Glenn, Tyrod, Shady, Hughes, Richie, even Wood's salary, come off the books for 2018, there will be additional savings...I'm not saying all of those guys are goners or should be, or whatever, but it's pretty safe to assume at least a couple of those guys or others will be part of the roster re-design if not for anything else other than Beane's own comments about the "hell" the Bills are in re: Cap situation.