Rob Quinn: Why Bills Signing DT Star Lotulelei Would Be an Epic Mistake

[BuffaloRush]

Ugh...Rob Quinn.  He was writing a bad fan blog a few years ago.  I know he covers the Bills for USA Today - but I don’t hold him in the same regard as other journalists

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, 26CornerBlitz said:

NFL free agency: Why Bills signing DT Star Lotulelei would be an epic mistake

There’s been a lot of speculation regarding Buffalo potentially signing Carolina Panthers nose tackle Star Lotulelei. Sure, he was a starter in Sean McDermott’s defense. But after a stellar rookie season, Lotulelei has seen his play decline drastically while his linemate, Kawann Short, dominated and earned a big contract.

As a rookie, Lotulelei looked like a gem, recording 42 tackles, three sacks, nine tackles for loss and four quarterback hits. He generated 24 quarterback pressures and registered a staggering 37 run stops, per Pro Football Focus.

However, in the last three seasons combined, he’s recorded 73 tackles, 11 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks and 12 quarterback hits. He registered 54 pressures and made only 32 run stops – five fewer than his rookie total – in that time.

 

I will admit, I saw Star in a different light more based on remembering his early success and didn't really follow him closely enough and assumed he was still playing a high level.  So this article was a little eye opening for me on him because he was a guy I both wanted and expected to be a target.  

 

McDermott knows him better than all of us, so if he still wants him then I will have confidence that McD knows what he is getting and doing.  But after seeing this article and seeing how he has not had a lot of success in either pressuring the QB or stopping the run after a great start to his career is concerning.  And given what he might cost, there are some other DT in FA that might make more sense unless Star comes at a good price.

[dollars 2 donuts]

41 minutes ago, horned dogs said:

Give me some Payne!!!!

 

 

I dig it.  Let's bring the Payne!

 

I love me some Alabama Defensive Linem.......oooooooohhhhhhhh, wait a minute.

 

[John from Riverside]

59 minutes ago, blacklabel said:

 

Usually someone would point out that Poe is better suited for NT in a 3-4 but he actually played over 70% of the snaps for Atlanta last year and they run a 4-3. Stats-wise he had his best year since 2013. But the reasons the Chiefs let him go in 2016 were because his asking price was quite high plus he's had a consistent back injury to deal with for a few years now. 

 

I don't know if he's an FA this season or not but I can't see McBeane viewing and valuing him as anything more than a rotational DL. 

Stay away from back injuries

[SoCal Deek]

People please!!

You don’t think a guy that actually COACHED him knows what he can do and what he’s worth?  No....you all read some article from another talking head reporter and figure he has some inside scoop. Forgive me for trusting the process but I think I’m going to let Coach McD make the call on this one!

[H2o]

If he's cheap I'm fine with it. If some team wants to give him 6-8 mill per then that's on them. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

Just now, SoCal Deek said:

People please!!

You don’t think a guy that actually COACHED him knows what he can do and what he’s worth?  No....you all read some article from another talking head reporter and figure he has some inside scoop. Forgive me for trusting the process but I think I’m going to let Coach McD make the call on this one!

 

I also think a guy like Beane is going to put a maximum value on him, and not overpay.  His production would have to be very high for him to justify an 8-12 million dollar cap hit.  If you don't think that you're going to get that production, you don't offer him that money.

[Alphadawg7]

3 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

I dig it.  Let's bring the Payne!

 

I love me some Alabama Defensive Linem.......oooooooohhhhhhhh, wait a minute.

 

 

BOOM!  Yeah I would love either Vita or Payne!  Like I mentioned earlier, I had wanted to address DT in FA because there are some solid to good ones likely available and so we could free up what we can do with our draft picks, but if we do go DT in the draft I would love to grab Vita or Payne.  

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

34 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said:

 

 

I dig it.  Let's bring the Payne!

 

I love me some Alabama Defensive Linem.......oooooooohhhhhhhh, wait a minute.

 

This guy is nothing like Dareus. Big time motor!

 

Inside Pass Rush

Edited February 22, 2018 by horned dogs

[TheBeaneBandit]

6 M per year is the highest I go

[John from Riverside]

You could get a good DT in the draft with a 1st round pick if you DONT give them up to trade up for a QB

 

Lamar Jackson.....and Payne?

[Pete]

59 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

I'd pay him that kind of money if it means not wasting 21/22 on another DT like Vea. 

that s not wasting.  Vea is a beast and would help our line tremendously.  BPA baby!

[TheBeaneBandit]

3 minutes ago, John from Hemet said:

You could get a good DT in the draft with a 1st round pick if you DONT give them up to trade up for a QB

 

Lamar Jackson.....and Payne?

That's actually my dream scenario. I'd like to find a guy to pair with the draftee in free agency as well

Edited February 22, 2018 by ILoveEndingTheSeasonInNov
Add more

[Magox]

3 hours ago, aristocrat said:

dontari poe is the guy i want

 

This is the guy I'm hoping they target

[CommonCents]

55 minutes ago, Pete said:

that s not wasting.  Vea is a beast and would help our line tremendously.  BPA baby!

A rotational DT BPA at 21!? Say it ain't so! 

[Royale with Cheese]

5 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

A rotational DT BPA at 21!? Say it ain't so! 

 

Everyone on the defensive line rotates.  McDermott uses the same strategy that Schwartz had.

[CommonCents]

28 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Everyone on the defensive line rotates.  McDermott uses the same strategy that Schwartz had.

Right. So use that pick on someone that is going to play every snap. The player would have to be elite to justify using a first rounder on him if he is only playing 50 percent of the defensive snaps. So he is on the field less than a quarter of the game. 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, Commonsense said:

Right. So use that pick on someone that is going to play every snap. The player would have to be elite to justify using a first rounder on him if he is only playing 50 percent of the defensive snaps. So he is on the field less than a quarter of the game. 

 

Jerry Hughes and Kyle Williams got the most snaps at 68% and 66% of the snaps.   The Eagles were in the same ballpark with Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham.

You still want talent on the DL even if they are playing at the 60% or so.  They rely on front 4 pressure so they rotate fresh bodies all the time.  The Panthers took DL in the first round twice when McDermott is there.  

 

[Pete]

It is my belief that games are won in the trenches.  Give Peyton or Brady time and they would move the ball at will.  Their success is enabled by the oline.  Get in their grill (ie Giants) and they are beatable.  Build this team with the lines first

Edited February 22, 2018 by Pete

[CommonCents]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

Jerry Hughes and Kyle Williams got the most snaps at 68% and 66% of the snaps.   The Eagles were in the same ballpark with Fletcher Cox and Brandon Graham.

You still want talent on the DL even if they are playing at the 60% or so.  They rely on front 4 pressure so they rotate fresh bodies all the time.  The Panthers took DL in the first round twice when McDermott is there.  

 

Of course you want talent on the dline. Jerry Hughes is not an interior DL, Kyle probably would have played less if the Bills had more viable options for a rotation.

 

Vea isn't going to rush the passer. It's like wasting a first rounder on Snacks Harrison. No thanks. 

 

I knew the Eagles would get mention, how did that rotation work in the SB? They got destroyed by a pretty ordinary Pats Oline and a 40 year old statue. The game has changed too much. A good QB is getting that ball out unless you have legit edge guys. 

[Pete]

Vita and Billy Price works for me.  Problem is Vita might possibly go top 10.  He is a freak that will shoot up boards after his combine

[Buffalo_Stampede]

3 hours ago, Commonsense said:

12 million isn't even close. Spotrac projects 6M per for 4 years. He has been a failure in Carolina. I think people see the need and a cool looking gargantuan that could fill the hole but don't even know what he brings or fails to bring to the table.

 

 

He will get a double digit AAV.

[CommonCents]

2 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:

He will get a double digit AAV.

Harrison got 9.25 AAV just last year. Star hasn't been above average since he first came into the league. I think 10 mil is a stretch.

 

7 mil AAV, 18-20 guaranteed is my guess. 

[Royale with Cheese]

Just now, Commonsense said:

Of course you want talent on the dline. Jerry Hughes is not an interior DL, Kyle probably would have played less if the Bills had more viable options for a rotation.

 

Vea isn't going to rush the passer. It's like wasting a first rounder on Snacks Harrison. No thanks. 

 

I knew the Eagles would get mention, how did that rotation work in the SB? They got destroyed by a pretty ordinary Pats Oline and a 40 year old statue. The game has changed too much. A good QB is getting that ball out unless you have legit edge guys. 

 

You're description of Brady sounds like he's just an average QB and should be easy to sack.  Brady wasn't anywhere near the league lead in sacks taken.  He's one if not the greatest and has the most Super Bowl MVP's.  Is this one game proof that rotations don't work or something?  Trying to see where you're going with this.

 

We were terrible against the run so someone like Vea is a need.  It's why Star was valuable to McDermott in Carolina.

 

[CommonCents]

1 minute ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

You're description of Brady sounds like he's just an average QB and should be easy to sack.  Brady wasn't anywhere near the league lead in sacks taken.  He's one if not the greatest and has the most Super Bowl MVP's.  Is this one game proof that rotations don't work or something?  Trying to see where you're going with this.

 

We were terrible against the run so someone like Vea is a need.  It's why Star was valuable to McDermott in Carolina.

 

Let's make it simple. I don't value a 2 down run stuffing DT, I value him even less when the coach prefers a constant rotation. I'd have a hard time justifying using a first round pick on one. Same way it makes zero sense to draft an "edge setting" DE in the first.

 

Sure the guy is doing a job but is he impacting the game enough to use such a high pick? I think the answer is clear. We can agree to disagree.

[Pete]

19 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

Of course you want talent on the dline. Jerry Hughes is not an interior DL, Kyle probably would have played less if the Bills had more viable options for a rotation.

 

Vea isn't going to rush the passer. It's like wasting a first rounder on Snacks Harrison. No thanks. 

 

I knew the Eagles would get mention, how did that rotation work in the SB? They got destroyed by a pretty ordinary Pats Oline and a 40 year old statue. The game has changed too much. A good QB is getting that ball out unless you have legit edge guys. 

2014 draft were you banging on the table for Blake Bortles over Khalid Mack or Aaron Donald?  IMO you always draft BPA, instead of fixating on one position.  As pertaining to Vea- he collapses pockets and get's his fair share of sacks.  He is very disruptive(disruptive and 2017 Bills pass rushers is mutually exclusive).  Like I previously mentioned- Vea is very fast and athletic- and will shoot up  draft boards after he puts on show at combine.  I would be ecstatic if we landed Vita.  But he just might go top 10

 

 

[Royale with Cheese]

1 minute ago, Commonsense said:

Let's make it simple. I don't value a 2 down run stuffing DT, I value him even less when the coach prefers a constant rotation. I'd have a hard time justifying using a first round pick on one. Same way it makes zero sense to draft an "edge setting" DE in the first.

 

Sure the guy is doing a job but is he impacting the game enough to use such a high pick? I think the answer is clear. We can agree to disagree.

 

I think if he consistently gives you 2nd/3rd and 8 as opposed to 2nd/3rd and 3....that's a big impact.

IMO...we need a big guy in the middle and at least 1 or 2 pass rushers in the draft of FA.

 

If it's between Hurst from Michigan or Vea....I would probably be more interested in Hurst but certainly wouldn't be upset with Vea.  He would help.

[CommonCents]

1 minute ago, Pete said:

2014 draft were you banging on the table for Blake Bortles over Khalid Mack or Aaron Donald?  IMO you always draft BPA, instead of fixating on one position.  As pertaining to Vea- he collapses pockets and get's his fair share of sacks.  He is very disruptive(disruptive and 2017 Bills pass rushers is mutually exclusive).  Like I previously mentioned- Vea is very fast and athletic- and will shoot up  draft boards after he puts on show at combine.  I would be ecstatic if we landed Vita.  But he just might go top 10

 

 

Falling in love with a highlight reel. He is heading to the NFL, unless it's a clean up sack his big ass is never getting to the QB in less than 3 seconds. Mack is an Edge, and Donald is a penetrating DT with 39 sacks in 4 years. 

 

Vea isn't like either of your examples.

[FeelingOnYouboty]

I'm always against giving interior DL paydays. They treat those contracts like a destination and not a continuation of what got them there. Also he's not special. Much rather invest in a young DL in the Draft in a really good DL class.

[Pete]

2 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

Falling in love with a highlight reel. He is heading to the NFL, unless it's a clean up sack his big ass is never getting to the QB in less than 3 seconds. Mack is an Edge, and Donald is a penetrating DT with 39 sacks in 4 years. 

 

Vea isn't like either of your examples.

instead of reframing my post- first answer my question-

2014 draft were you banging on the table for Blake Bortles over Khalid Mack or Aaron Donald?

 

My point was you always take BPA.  Mack and Donald were rated higher then Bortles.  

 

And Vita is a beast.  As are Mack and Donald.  All 3 are game changers.  My opinion is not based on highlight reel.  And teams don't base picks on highlight reels.  But somehow Vita might go top 10.  And if you watched highlight reel, how can you not see how he can help the Bills D dramatically?

[CommonCents]

1 minute ago, Pete said:

instead of reframing my post- first answer my question-

2014 draft were you banging on the table for Blake Bortles over Khalid Mack or Aaron Donald?

 

My point was you always take BPA.  Mack and Donald were rated higher then Bortles.  

 

And Vita is a beast.  As are Mack and Donald.  All 3 are game changers.  My opinion is not based on highlight reel.  And teams don't base picks on highlight reels.  But somehow Vita might go top 10.  And if you watched highlight reel, how can you not see how he can help the Bills D dramatically?

Blake Bortles is the white EJ, he was the same way in college. He has to "think" on how he wants to throw a pass. It's painful to watch. I have no idea what point you are trying to make. Ranking a QB against an edge guy and a DT that can get to the passer. Those 3 positions/skill sets are top of the list for game changers. Find me one of those.

 

The Bills had a bunch of Jags playing on the dline it's not a compliment saying "he would help" I already said he would do a job, is that job worth a first round pick? I don't think so.

 

The edge setting DE helped against the run right? Anyone jumping up and down to lock up Shaq long term? 

[JerseyBills]

5 hours ago, Rigotz said:

The counter-point is ... when a player is a dominant force inside, defenses adjust and their stats take a hit.

Haven't watched the Panthers much, but you'd bet he was doubled and schemed against significantly after a monster first year.

Exactly. So many variables to the point the author was making.

[Drunken Pygmy Goat]

5 hours ago, Rigotz said:

The counter-point is ... when a player is a dominant force inside, defenses adjust and their stats take a hit.

Haven't watched the Panthers much, but you'd bet he was doubled and schemed against significantly after a monster first year.

 

Yeah, I wouldn't put much stock into the numbers argument here. Star has a role, and be does it well, which allows players around him to benefit.

 

The Panthers have been one of the least run-on defenses since he was drafted, and they faced far more runs in his rookie year than any year since, percentage wise, which has a direct correlation to his numbers. Run stops will be down by default. Offenses have adjusted how they play that defense, and clearly they think it's more wise to throw the ball against them. Star's presence alone is a big reason why.  

 

Stats are a good way to judge, but there's always variables that play a role. And in football, that is especially true. That's why I always say, "numbers never lie, but they don't always tell the whole truth".

 

You (not you, but Rob Quinn) cannot sit here and tell me that having Star on your team wouldn't be a good thing. And using the phrase "epic mistake" is just an attention grabber to generate clicks.

Edited February 22, 2018 by Drunken Pygmy Goat

[Mr. WEO]

1 hour ago, Commonsense said:

A rotational DT BPA at 21!? Say it ain't so! 

 

Bills drafted one at 3 a few years ago...

[Buffalo_Stampede]

43 minutes ago, Commonsense said:

Harrison got 9.25 AAV just last year. Star hasn't been above average since he first came into the league. I think 10 mil is a stretch.

 

7 mil AAV, 18-20 guaranteed is my guess. 

If we can get him under $8 million you better do It and try to go multiple years at that rate. 

 

Harrison signed a couple years ago I believe. The comparable is probably Poe from last year. A little younger but similar. Poe coming off a down year got a 1 year prove it deal at $8 million. I could see that deal being the floor. 

 

Contracts are rising fast, even for DT's. I could see him signing anywhere from $8-$12 million AAV depending on the market. Top do it all DT's will get near $20 million deals, 2 down space eating DT's like Star probably will fall in that $8-$12 million range. Harrison is the cream of the crop, but someone will get more. 

Edited February 22, 2018 by TheTruthHurts