Why I would be happy with Lamar Jackson

[Gugny]

22 minutes ago, John from Hemet said:

That is the point I have been trying to make....which falls on deaf ears for some

 

If you had a Tyrod Taylor who was a little taller, threw more accurately over the middle, and didnt hang onto the ball?

 

Well....you would have something really special

 

And if your Aunt Linda had a dick, she'd be your uncle.

 

What really is your point?  And why do you keep avoiding me?

[John from Riverside]

4 minutes ago, Gugny said:

 

And if your Aunt Linda had a dick, she'd be your uncle.

 

What really is your point?  And why do you keep avoiding me?

Gug...do you need a hug

 

All you have to do is ask

[Gugny]

1 minute ago, John from Hemet said:

Gug...do you need a hug

 

All you have to do is ask

 

I do.

 

And I don't want any of that side hug bull ****, either.

[John from Riverside]

Just now, Gugny said:

 

I do.

 

And I don't want any of that side hug bull ****, either.

Oh we are way past that my friend......its full on bear hug for you.

[ddaryl]

2 hours ago, DCOrange said:

1. If that were the case and his completion percentage were only low because he were throwing deep more often, that's something that absolutely should be noted when looking at him. A short throw is obviously far easier to complete than a deep throw, so QBs that are dumping it off all the time will naturally have inflated completion percentages.

 

2. That's not what's going on here though. The numbers in that chart are adjusted for WRs dropping easy passes, throwaways, spikes, and passes batted at the line (the passes batted should be taken note of too, but eliminating those passes was part of ProFootballFocus's attempt to create a more accurate "accuracy" metric since there's no way to tell if those passes would have been on target if not for getting deflected at the line). When adjusting for that, Lamar's completion percentage on all attempts (including the short stuff where Darnold relatively excels) is higher than Darnold.

 

The obvious limitation here is that you can't tell how well-placed the throw was, only that these passes were "catchable", but that same limitation exists in the regular completion percentage number that you were citing as a reason not to consider him. One of the analysts at NDT Scouting (and I believe a writer for the Eagles SBNation blog) is currently working on a breakdown that will specifically look at the numbers behind well-placed balls. He put together a report for all of the Senior Bowl QBs already and it's pretty freaking cool. If you're interested in that report, you can find the link here: https://www.ndtscouting.com/solak-2018-senior-bowl-contextualized-quarterbacking-available/

 

I put together a table comparing the different QBs from that report too, but obviously Rosen, Darnold, and Lamar were not in the Senior Bowl so they aren't included yet.

 

 

 

Yeah. My belief is that you definitely want to be watching the film to be able to see with your own eyes how the QB is performing, but having numbers such as the ones I've posted can help get an idea of how it all breaks down mathematically. Obviously if you watch Rosen throw the ball over 450 times like he did this year, you're going to see a ton of both good and bad throws. The numbers help provide a counter-balance so that your mind doesn't just focus on the good or the bad and accidentally let that skew your opinion too much. The numbers can't capture everything though, and probably the biggest part of quarterbacking: the mental makeup, is something that basically none of us will have the ability to REALLY figure out, at least not as well as the teams can since they get to actually sit down with these guys later in the draft process. 

 

 

 

You can throw this stuff at me all day, and I used to be the same way... Use to hunt down all kinds of different stats etc...  Bottom line every single QB that I tried to justify with secondary stats never panned out or was an OK QB in the pros at best. If you look at the best of the best in the NFL, those who are always competing for playoffs or destinied to be enshrined in HOF or already are you're not going ot find to many anommalies with less than 60% in college. If you do its usulaly a QB who has at least %9% like Carson Palmer

 

Now if the bills sit back then grab Lamar in the late 2nd or 3rd rd then so be it, but he is not accurate enough to take any earlier IMO neither is Allen. If we are going that route then we have to land a top FA vet.

 

My opinion remains Lamar and Allen are a late day 2 or day 3 option, anything else is a reach and could very well set any franchise backwards IMO. Hope its any other club but the Bills

 

 

[ProcessTheTrust]

I think the Watson comparison is the best...meaning if he has that "IT" factor that translates in the pros, he's gonna make a lot of teams regret not picking him. However, there's just no way to know till he's in the fire. Even the Texans thought Watson wasn't ready till Savage made it impossible to not take the chance.

Edited February 15, 2018 by ProcessTheTrust

[Gugny]

If Beane drafts Jackson, then Beane is a crappy GM and this team is going to suck forever.

[Guest K-GunJimKelly12]

6 minutes ago, ProcessTheTrust said:

I think the Watson comparison is the best...meaning if he has that "IT" factor that translates in the pros, he's gonna make a lot of teams regret not picking him. However, there's just no way to know till he's in the fire. Even the Texans thought Watson wasn't ready till Savage made it impossible to not take the chance.

This guy is very different from Watson.  Watson tore up arguably the greatest college defense of all-time in the title game with his passing.  I have said it before, there is only one player you can compare to Jackson and that is Michael Vick.  I don't think I have ever seen two QB's with such a similar style as those two.  They even both have the rocket arm without the touch.  Remember when Vick would absolutely fire lasers into guys when he didn't exactly need to?  It was like, that was a decent throw but it would have been a lot better and easier to catch if he could have taken a little off.  Jackson has that same delivery.

[OldTimer1960]

3 hours ago, John from Hemet said:

I like him.....but unlike some here I dont downgrade a qb because he can make plays with his athletism and not just him arm talent like some due here

 

Get away from hating on our departing starter.....and think more Mike Vick (young mike vick) you know the guy that went 1st overall in the draft, made tons of plays, had rocket launcher attached to his arm, and actually did put his team on his back at times?

 

Try not to stereo type to much....Lamar Jackson throws the football

I agree.  He might never be as accurate as you want or he might get better, but at least he is willing to throw the ball.

[ProcessTheTrust]

4 minutes ago, K-GunJimKelly12 said:

This guy is very different from Watson.  Watson tore up arguably the greatest college defense of all-time in the title game with his passing.  I have said it before, there is only one player you can compare to Jackson and that is Michael Vick.  I don't think I have ever seen two QB's with such a similar style as those two.  They even both have the rocket arm without the touch.  Remember when Vick would absolutely fire lasers into guys when he didn't exactly need to?  It was like, that was a decent throw but it would have been a lot better and easier to catch if he could have taken a little off.  Jackson has that same delivery.

I hear ya, but I'm talking in terms of doubts about game transitioning to the pros. A lot of people were torn between whether Watson was really that good or did MWilliams make him look that good. Watson made a lot of plays that left most scratching their heads wondering if it would work in the NFL. Hindsight makes it obvious but I'm sure a little pre 2017 draft digging would find very few thinking he was worth a first round pick.

[The_Dude]

To me it’s weird he’s not getting more pub. I really don’t get why he’s not mentioned with the fab-4 because he belongs. Right now I have it:

1. Mayfield

2a. Rosen

2b. Darnold

4. Jackson

5. Allen

 

[Spiderweb]

4 hours ago, Southern Bills Fan said:

I'm not an expert but I have seen him play a few times and against good defenses his accuracy was not only poor, it was simply awful.

I looked up his stats for last year. Against four good defenses he was;

 

Clemson   21-42   317 yards  3td  1int

Florida St. 13-21   156 yards  1td  0int

Mississippi State  13-31   171 yards   2td  4int

Virginia         15-26    195 yards    3td   2int

 

He is a great runner but he fumbled 11 times last year.

Seems you hit on what I have seen the past two years. Yes, he"s exciting but he's a turnover machine at times and he is not an accurate passer. Great college QB but so was Andre Ware, and a ton of others who failed badly at the next level. This would be a very iffy pick at best. This is an athlete, not a QB.

[ddaryl]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

That's not what you said, and that's not the point.

 

You said that if a guy cannot complete 60% of his passes consistently, then he's not going to develop the ability to do so at the next level.

 

That's simply not true, as evidenced by above.  Wilson hitting 72% as a senior does not mean he hit 60 consistently.

 

There are actually many more examples of guys that didn't hit 60% consistently in college that have done so in the pros. The point isn't that Jackson or Allen will be great passers in the NFL; the point is that guys can absolutely improve accuracy from college to the NFL, and it's not exactly rare for them to do so.

 

Case-in-point:  Lamar Jackson is leaving for the NFL after his JR year (I believe he should've stayed).  Let's compare his numbers through 3 college seasons to those of Russell Wilson through 3 college seasons...

 

Wilson: 36 games played, 682 completions in 1180 att (57.8%), 8545 yards (7.24 YPA), 76 passing TDs and 26 INTs

Jackson: 38 games played, 619 completions in 1086 att (57.0%), 9043 yards (8.33 YPA), 69 passing TDs and 27 INTs

 

Dramatically different?  Nope.  Possible that Jackson simply needs another year (or two) of seasoning?  Totally.

 

 

OK you got me on technicalitties and the very rare very slight annomally

 

Lamar or Allen are not accurate enough at the college lvl to waste a day 1 pick on. Thats what I am saying. Nobody should be trading picks to move up to get them or even wasting a precious 1st rd pick on them. Someone will and i hope to god its not the Bills cause if its the Bills then I'm just going to cry because I have no faith in a franchise that would waste a 1st rd pick on any top QB prospect with less than 60% college compeltion percentage. You want to find a diamond in the orugh you find them in the latter rounds not the 1st round.

 

you're right I didn't say every single thought to the letter, my god I would have to type a novel to cover every little tid bit and possible annomally. But I wouldn't of drafted Wilson in the 1st rd, and neither did anyone else.....  Which is what I say about Lamar and Allen pick them up in the late 2nd or 3rd nothing sooner. Maybe they turn out to be decent QB's but I would never gamble on that with a 1st rd pick. Wilson was a gamble and it paid off but it was a 3rd rd gamble not a mortgage the future gamble.

 

Go through the last 10 drafts and find QB's that maintained top 15 status. Many of them were drafted 1st rd most of them had College Completion of 60%

 

Here is a list of this years top 15 QBs. Staffor is the really only Anommally. Ryan missed by 0.01% which to me is a round up and callit 60%

 

1. Tom Brady 61.9%  https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/tom-brady-1.html  6th round pick
2. Phillip RIvers 63.6% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/philip-rivers-1.html  1st rd pick
3. Mathew Stafford 57.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/matthew-stafford-1.html 1st rd pick
4. Drew Brees 61.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/drew-brees-1.html 2nd rd pick
5. Ben Roethlesberger 65.5%  https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/ben-roethlisberger-1.html 1st rd pick
6. Matt Ryan 59.9% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/matt-ryan-1.html 1st rd pick
7. Kirk Cousins  64.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/kirk-cousins-1.html 4th rd pick
8. Alex Smith 66.3% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/alex-smith-3.html 1st rd pick
9. Russel Wilson 60.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/russell-wilson-1.html 3rd rd pick
10. Jared Goff 62.3% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jared-goff-1.html 1st rd pick
11. Blake Bortles 65.7% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/blake-bortles-1.html 1st rd pick
12. Case Keenum 69.4% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/case-keenum-1.html UNDRAFTED FA
13. Jameis WInston 66.0% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jameis-winston-1.html  1st rd pick
14. Derek Carr 66.7% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/derek-carr-1.html 1st rd pick
15. Eli Manning 60.8% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/eli-manning-1.html 1st rd pick

 

2016 not listed above top 15 for this year

 

Aaron Rodgers 63.8%  https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/aaron-rodgers-1.html 1st rd pick

Joe Flacco (Played divsion AA Deleware so stats were hard ot find ut 63.4% at Delaware http://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=3350135  1st rd pick

Andrew Luck 67.0% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/andrew-luck-1.html 1st rd pick

Carson Plamer 59.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/carson-palmer-1.html 1st rd pick

Andy Dalton 61.7% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/andy-dalton-1.html 2nd rd pick

 

2015 not listed above top 15 for this year

 

Ryan Tannenhill 62.5% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/ryan-tannehill-1.html `st rd pick

Ryan Fitzpatrick 59%  approximate hard ot find the stats but this was an eyeball average 7rd pick

 

 

 

I mean we can discuss the possibilites of finding a hidden gem but the fact is if your drafting a QB in round #1 you do not waste that pick on a QB who has a sub par 60% college completion record....  you have 3 annomallies (4 if you want ot include Matt Ryans 59.9% in here) in the last 3 seasons reachng top 15 in the NFL in a single season.

 

There are not many GMs in football proving to be smarter than the rest and grabbing a Russel  Wilson type in the 1st rd.. Nope they wait and take a chance on a Russel Wilson type in round 3

 

Joe Flacco, Stafford, Palmer may be a case for a guy like Allen but that don't happen often enough to support a reach IMO because mor etimes than not they don't pan out. Flacco gets mentioned because he played AA ball in Delaware.

 

SO I would rather trade away the entire draft and move up and get the best we can get then to settle and reach for a Lamar or Allen at 21.... I owuld rather take a flyer on a rd 2 or 3 guy 1st....

 

 

 

[thebandit27]

11 minutes ago, ddaryl said:

 

 

OK you got me on technicalitties and the very rare very slight annomally

 

Lamar or Allen are not accurate enough at the college lvl to waste a day 1 pick on. Thats what I am saying. Nobody should be trading picks to move up to get them or even wasting a precious 1st rd pick on them. Someone will and i hope to god its not the Bills cause if its the Bills then I'm just going to cry because I have no faith in a franchise that would waste a 1st rd pick on any top QB prospect with less than 60% college compeltion percentage. You want to find a diamond in the orugh you find them in the latter rounds not the 1st round.

 

you're right I didn't say every single thought to the letter, my god I would have to type a novel to cover every little tid bit and possible annomally. But I wouldn't of drafted Wilson in the 1st rd, and neither did anyone else.....  Which is what I say about Lamar and Allen pick them up in the late 2nd or 3rd nothing sooner. Maybe they turn out to be decent QB's but I would never gamble on that with a 1st rd pick. Wilson was a gamble and it paid off but it was a 3rd rd gamble not a mortgage the future gamble.

 

Go through the last 10 drafts and find QB's that maintained top 15 status. Many of them were drafted 1st rd most of them had College Completion of 60%

 

Here is a list of this years top 15 QBs. Staffor is the really only Anommally. Ryan missed by 0.01% which to me is a round up and callit 60%

 

1. Tom Brady 61.9%  https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/tom-brady-1.html  6th round pick
2. Phillip RIvers 63.6% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/philip-rivers-1.html  1st rd pick
3. Mathew Stafford 57.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/matthew-stafford-1.html 1st rd pick
4. Drew Brees 61.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/drew-brees-1.html 2nd rd pick
5. Ben Roethlesberger 65.5%  https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/ben-roethlisberger-1.html 1st rd pick
6. Matt Ryan 59.9% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/matt-ryan-1.html 1st rd pick
7. Kirk Cousins  64.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/kirk-cousins-1.html 4th rd pick
8. Alex Smith 66.3% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/alex-smith-3.html 1st rd pick
9. Russel Wilson 60.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/russell-wilson-1.html 3rd rd pick
10. Jared Goff 62.3% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jared-goff-1.html 1st rd pick
11. Blake Bortles 65.7% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/blake-bortles-1.html 1st rd pick
12. Case Keenum 69.4% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/case-keenum-1.html UNDRAFTED FA
13. Jameis WInston 66.0% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/jameis-winston-1.html  1st rd pick
14. Derek Carr 66.7% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/derek-carr-1.html 1st rd pick
15. Eli Manning 60.8% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/eli-manning-1.html 1st rd pick

 

2016 not listed above top 15 for this year

 

Aaron Rodgers 63.8%  https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/aaron-rodgers-1.html 1st rd pick

Joe Flacco (Played divsion AA Deleware so stats were hard ot find ut 63.4% at Delaware http://www.espn.com/nfl/news/story?id=3350135  1st rd pick

Andrew Luck 67.0% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/andrew-luck-1.html 1st rd pick

Carson Plamer 59.1% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/carson-palmer-1.html 1st rd pick

Andy Dalton 61.7% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/andy-dalton-1.html 2nd rd pick

 

2015 not listed above top 15 for this year

 

Ryan Tannenhill 62.5% https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/ryan-tannehill-1.html `st rd pick

Ryan Fitzpatrick 59%  approximate hard ot find the stats but this was an eyeball average 7rd pick

 

 

 

I mean we can discuss the possibilites of finding a hidden gem but the fact is if your drafting a QB in round #1 you do not waste that pick on a QB who has a sub par 60% college completion record....  you have 3 annomallies (4 if you want ot include Matt Ryans 59.9% in here) in the last 3 seasons reachng top 15 in the NFL in a single season.

 

There are not many GMs in football proving to be smarter than the rest and grabbing a Russel  Wilson type in the 1st rd.. Nope they wait and take a chance on a Russel Wilson type in round 3

 

Joe Flacco, Stafford, Palmer may be a case for a guy like Allen but that don't happen often enough to support a reach IMO because mor etimes than not they don't pan out. Flacco gets mentioned because he played AA ball in Delaware.

 

SO I would rather trade away the entire draft and move up and get the best we can get then to settle and reach for a Lamar or Allen at 21.... I owuld rather take a flyer on a rd 2 or 3 guy 1st....

 

 

 

 

That's a lot of effort to refute a point that I didn't make.  I'll say it again:

 

"The point isn't that Jackson or Allen will be great passers in the NFL; the point is that guys can absolutely improve accuracy from college to the NFL, and it's not exactly rare for them to do so."

[#34fan]

There's better QB's available later... I don't HATE Jackson, but this kid, IMO, is NOT a 1st round QB... -He may not even be a QB at all!

 

I look at kids like Danny Etling, or Riley Fergusson, and I see experience, and leadership... I see NONE of that with Jackson... He's just a really talented athlete. -Not a viable QB prospect.

 

More and more, I think the QB GOLD in this draft lies in later rounds  to UDFA... Kid's like Mike White, and Kyle Allen could surprise at the next level...

If OBD is smart, they bypass the hype machine, and go all D for round 1.... Da'ron Payne!!!!!! Rashaan Evans!!!!-Whoo Hoo!

[thebandit27]

1 minute ago, #34fan said:

There's better QB's available later... I don't HATE Jackson, but this kid, IMO, is NOT a 1st round QB... -He may not even be a QB at all!

 

I look at kids like Danny Etling, or Riley Fergusson, and I see experience, and leadership... I see NONE of that with Jackson... He's just a really talented athlete. -Not a viable QB prospect.

 

More and more, I think the QB GOLD in this draft lies in later rounds  to UDFA... Kid's like Mike White, and Kyle Allen could surprise at the next level...

If OBD is smart, they bypass the hype machine, and go all D for round 1.... Da'ron Payne!!!!!! Rashaan Evans!!!!-Whoo Hoo!

 

Wait, you see experience advantages in Etling and Ferguson--who have started 37 and 26 games, respectively--over Lamar Jackson, who has started 38 games?

 

That makes no sense at all.

 

As for leadership, I'd like to know what differences in leadership you see; I currently find that conclusion very difficult to support.

[Coastie]

5 hours ago, PaattMaann said:

 

why would not having an agent prevent teams from drafting him? This makes zero sense

 

 

 

 

They cited interview and combine prep primarily.

[#34fan]

36 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Wait, you see experience advantages in Etling and Ferguson--who have started 37 and 26 games, respectively--over Lamar Jackson, who has started 38 games?

 

That makes no sense at all.

 

As for leadership, I'd like to know what differences in leadership you see; I currently find that conclusion very difficult to support.

 

Etling played in two systems Purdue, and LSU.. Big 10, and SEC respectively... Fergusson had a path that took him from Tennessee, then Community College, then Memphis... He stuck with it... I prefer the kids who come through multiple systems and some level of adversity in developing their game... Have you actually observed Riley Fergusson's leadership on the field? Have you heard him speak in presssers? Better yet,  have you watched what Fergusson does in games? How his success isn't bound to the coaches' system like Jackson's is?

 

Your opinion sounds like one of someone who enjoys dropping stats, but doesn't bother watching tons of college football, like I do... I look for leaders of men at the next level. I do not see that with Jackson in the first round. -Sorry.

 

Riley Breakdown

 

 

Edited February 15, 2018 by #34fan
Typo

[racketmaster]

I’ll admit that I have spent the least amount of time researching Jackson. I have watched only 4 of his games and just 3-4 interviews. I have read some articles on him as well but have not does a deep dive into him. By all accounts he has solid character. He is not particularly impressive during interviews but nothing that raises a red flag. In my mind he has 2 things going wrong for him as far as his chances of being drafted by the Bills. First, he is smaller in stature and has a more slender build. The Bills would prefer him to be taller and thicker. Second, and probably more importantly is that he is similar to Tyrod Taylor and not just because they are both black quarterbacks. Jackson is an exceptional runner, probably faster and more explosive than Tyrod. He ran a lot in college and he was successful at it. But quarterbacks that run as much as he did in college do so at the detriment of improving as a passer. The NFL is a different animal. He will make some plays with his legs but eventually the speed and skill of NFL defenders will get to him as they do with Tyrod. And can his more slender frame hold up to NFL collisions? And when defenses scheme to take away his running lanes, will he be prepared to make NFL throws on a consistent basis. We have seen this with Tyrod. He has some success but teams that remain disciplined against the run and keep him in the pocket tend to have success against him. The Bills appear very ready to move on from Tyrod and it would be an odd choice to me if they were to replace him with Jackson. I actually, could see Jackson ending up on a team like the Bengals, Baltimore or San Diego. He could sit behind a veteran but also be used in special situations. Again, I would be surprised if the Bills targeted him as their franchise quarterback. The issue with his accuracy also does not help his cause. Personally, I just don't see the Bills being the right fit for Jackson but stranger things have happened.

[thebandit27]

31 minutes ago, #34fan said:

 

Etling played in two systems Purdue, and LSU.. Big 10, and SEC respectively... Fergusson had a path that took him from Tennessee, then Community College, then Memphis... He stuck with it... I prefer the kids who come through multiple systems and some level of adversity in developing their game... Have you actually observed Riley Fergusson's leadership on the field? Have you heard him speak in presssers? Better yet,  have you watched what Fergusson does in games? How his success isn't bound to the coaches' system like Jackson's is?

 

Your opinion sounds like one of someone who enjoys dropping stats, but doesn't bother watching tons of college football, like I do... I look for leaders of men at the next level. I do not see that with Jackson in the first round. -Sorry.

 

Riley Breakdown

 

 

 

Yeah, well you've discredited yourself with your last paragraph there

[#34fan]

25 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Yeah, well you've discredited yourself with your last paragraph there

 

 I don't need your credit, Bandit... I actually take my time and observe these kids... Games... Pressers... I follow their progress for YEARS... What has Jackson shown that makes you think he can pick up an NFL offense or run a pro huddle? -Have you ever even heard the kid speak? 

 

But never mind what I say... Keep offering up stats with no context... Makes you look smart...

 

 

Edited February 15, 2018 by #34fan

[thebandit27]

47 minutes ago, #34fan said:

 

 I don't need your credit, Bandit... I actually take my time and observe these kids... Games... Pressers... I follow their progress for YEARS... What has Jackson shown that makes you think he can pick up an NFL offense or run a pro huddle? -Have you ever even heard the kid speak? 

 

But never mind what I say... Keep offering up stats with no context... Makes you look smart...

 

 

 

Keep offering up your assessment of whether or not I actually watch these guys without doing a scintilla of research 

 

It would take all of 2 minutes of looking into the archives to see the draft prep I put together every year for the last decade on this board 

 

But you're in too many of a hurry to prove your superiority to yourself 

 

Maybe there's someone on the board that's impressed by it...

[#34fan]

28 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Keep offering up your assessment of whether or not I actually watch these guys without doing a scintilla of research 

 

It would take all of 2 minutes of looking into the archives to see the draft prep I put together every year for the last decade on this board 

 

But you're in too many of a hurry to prove your superiority to yourself 

 

Maybe there's someone on the board that's impressed by it...

 

You seem to be the one more worried about who they impress.  -I just offered a different take on the QB prospect paradigm...  But hey, way to go, on being able to count to 38.

[Solomon Grundy]

2 hours ago, #34fan said:

 

 I don't need your credit, Bandit... I actually take my time and observe these kids... Games... Pressers... I follow their progress for YEARS... What has Jackson shown that makes you think he can pick up an NFL offense or run a pro huddle? -Have you ever even heard the kid speak? 

 

But never mind what I say... Keep offering up stats with no context... Makes you look smart...

 

 

I believe Jackson ran a very complex, pro style offense at Louisville. And what's so funny about the way he speaks?? 

10 hours ago, Canadian Bills Fan said:

Don't get me wrong, I am excited about the Rosen talk but I'm must admit, I'm a little weary about giving up so much to get him.

 

I think the Bills have a great shot at landing Jackson at #21 or they wouldn't need to trade up that far to get him meaning we wont have to give up as much.

 

I see him comparing to Watson from Houston. I like that he can take off blazing down field if a play breaks down. I love that he has elite arm strength which will be a huge advantage if he is playing in Buffalo.

 

The only real knock I see against him is his accuracy, I get it, its a big issue but something that I think he can improve on with the right coaching.

 

It's hard not to be excited about this guy when you see his highlights.

 

Scouting Report from Walterfootball.com

 

http://walterfootball.com/scoutingreport2018ljackson.php

 

 

 

Read the scouting report

[thebandit27]

30 minutes ago, #34fan said:

 

You seem to be the one more worried about who they impress.  -I just offered a different take on the QB prospect paradigm...  But hey, way to go, on being able to count to 38.

 

No, you claimed that two players with fewer starts than Jackson had more experience, which isn't even an opinion; it's flat-out wrong.

 

You also claimed that they were better leaders without providing any substance 

 

Lastly, you decided that I simply look at numbers and don't actually watch these guys, which is both pompously presumptuous and ludicrous.

 

But yeah, it's not you, it's me

[#34fan]

4 minutes ago, the skycap said:

I believe Jackson ran a very complex, pro style offense at Louisville.

 

  Of course you do... Unfortunately LOU's "pro style" offense is rooted in college practicality, and tailored for an inaccurate QB to use his legs as a primary weapon.

 

Calling it "very complex" simply isn't true... Petrino tried more snaps under center last season, but to what end? -a drop in win total, and an increase in INT's?

 

Lamar Jackson reminds me of Randle-El.. -And if it makes you feel better, he'd make a FINE 2nd round pick as a converted wide receiver.

 

2016 LOU offense breakdown

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, The_Dude said:

To me it’s weird he’s not getting more pub. I really don’t get why he’s not mentioned with the fab-4 because he belongs. Right now I have it:

1. Mayfield

2a. Rosen

2b. Darnold

4. Jackson

5. Allen

 

 

Rosen and Darnold were stud elite-eleven QB's at a time when the HS QB recruiting scene was starting to get more national exposure............the hype train started years ago with these dudes........particularly Rosen, who was seen as a perfect specimen of a QB prospect.

 

Mayfield forced himself into the mix with a full career of hard work, capped off with a GREAT season.

 

Jackson declared early before he could take that last step..........that's why he's well behind these guys..........but in a more typically bad QB year I could see him getting pushed way up the board.

 

The dude makes some GREAT throws.   He is fun to watch.  

Edited February 16, 2018 by BADOLBILZ

[#34fan]

24 minutes ago, thebandit27 said:

 

No, you claimed that two players with fewer starts than Jackson had more experience, which isn't even an opinion; it's flat-out wrong.

 

You also claimed that they were better leaders without providing any substance 

 

Lastly, you decided that I simply look at numbers and don't actually watch these guys, which is both pompously presumptuous and ludicrous.

 

But yeah, it's not you, it's me

 

Nope.  -I'm the one who's nuts... I like the kid with the higher completion percentage (the last two years) who  threw more TD's, -passed for more yardage, and took a couple dozen less sacks.

 

I must be totally insane.

[thebandit27]

17 minutes ago, #34fan said:

 

Nope.  -I'm the one who's nuts... I like the kid with the higher completion percentage (the last two years) who  threw more TD's, -passed for more yardage, and took a couple dozen less sacks.

 

I must be totally insane.

 

Swing and a miss

 

I never once criticized your evaluation; everyone's entitled to an opinion. I said that your claims of certain players' superior experience and leadership were incorrect and unfounded, respectively 

[BuffaloBillsGospel]

10 hours ago, K-GunJimKelly12 said:

I believe this stat is skewed and is not a good indicator for how well some of these players perform against top defenses.  For example Louisvlle got blown out by Clemson this year.  If you just look at the stats, you would think Jackson had a pretty good game.  When you dig a little deeper, Jackson was 12-25 for 115 yards 1 TD and 1 pick 6 @ 2:16 left in the 3rd quarter.  If you watch the highlight of the pick 6, it was just a terrible throw. 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPO6frJzkog

 

Louisville was down 33-7 late in the third and from there Jackson went, 9-17 for 202 yards, 2 TD's and 0 INT's in garbage time.  Louisville wasn't a great team this year and I imagine it is not uncommon for top collge QB's to pad there stats against top defenses when the backups are in during garbage time.  People are just way too accepting to believe every advanced stat they see has a direct correlation to what is happening on the field.  Yes a lot of this stuff is good, but how many of these algorithms are giving people a skewed view of exactly how good a player really is?  I think a lot of these stats look nice, but don't apply to what is really happening on the field. 

 

It's obvious you don't like Jackson, you're entitled to your opinion but you state he pads his stats in garbage time against backups, so you show one 30 second video of him throwing a pick 6 and in the video it said it was his 1st interception in 128 pass attempts. His OL was pretty bad also and he did very well, I love his game against NC State, he had constant pressure all game long and I thought he did a heck of a job hanging in the pocket and slinging it all over the field. He's Michael Vick with a stronger arm (not just my words, Mike Mayock stated the same on NFL.com) and Mike Vick went #1 overall back in 2001. I see all these top QB's gone by 17, if we want 1 of them the Bills will need to trade up imo.

[YoloinOhio]

I like Lamar Jackson, but I don’t think the Bills do. He’s the only “top” QB they didn’t visit more than once to scout live. 

[Augie]

6 minutes ago, YoloinOhio said:

I like Lamar Jackson, but I don’t think the Bills do. He’s the only “top” QB they didn’t visit more than once to scout live. 

 

 

...or is that part of the ruse????    

 

 

No, I don’t think so either. 

[#34fan]

2 hours ago, thebandit27 said:

 

Swing and a miss

 

I never once criticized your evaluation; everyone's entitled to an opinion. I said that your claims of certain players' superior experience and leadership were incorrect and unfounded, respectively 

 

 Unfounded?

 

After a storied high school career, Ferguson suffered early disappointment at his first stop (Tennesee)  before leaving the program.. He  went home to N.C. and began detailing cars and building aluminum fences for cash....All the while dreaming of another shot...

 

He finally got some interest from Coffeyvile Junior college in Kansas, where he wowed them with a 67.8% completion percentage and 35 TD's... Shortly thereafter he drew interest from Mike Norvell, the man who would be the new HC at Memphis...

 

2016 was Riley's first season with the Tigers, and the Tiger's first season removed from the mighty Paxton Lynch...

 

Ferguson only responded by shattering Lynch's school touchdown record, and pouring in 32 TD's via some 3,968 passing yards leading the tigers to a bowl-eligible season.

 

For the 2017 season, he would propel the Memphis program to even greater heights. -Pouring in 38 passing TD's via some 4,257 passing yards. He also broke the school record for passing yards in a single game. -Twice!

 

Ferguson finished the year averaging more passing YPG than Sam Darnold (327.5)...Memphis would finish with 10 wins on the season, and back to back bowl game appearances. -Not bad for a kid who went missing on the road less traveled, and managed to find his way back... 

Edited February 16, 2018 by #34fan

[DJB]

Please i want to try a throwing qb not one thst runs and throws only ok

[Thurman#1]

14 hours ago, ddaryl said:

accuracy can not be taught. You either have it or you don't/ if you have it you can refine it, but if your a college QB who couldn't complete more than 60% consistently it ain't never going to happen in the pros (See Josh Allen)

 

 

Lamar is intruiging but you're not fixing the accuracy worries

 

 

 

 

Accuracy certainly can be taught to some degree. Rodgers has gotten more accurate, Brady, a bunch of others.

 

But yeah, some guys never get more accurate. It's absolutely not a sure thing.  But it could happen, particularly if the accuracy issues are based on fundamentals problems like bad footwork, which indeed can be fixed.

 

I'm up in the air on Jackson. I'd rather see them trade up and get one of the top three. Or Cousins for that matter, though I just don't see that happening with the FO's M.O. established as build through the draft and be conservative fiscally. But if they don't get any of those, I'd be willing to root for Lamar. But they'd be making a big bet on him. Whoever they pick will color the FO's legacy.

 

Can Jackson throw from the pocket, their one stated necessity for a QB? From what I see from people like Matt Waldman, he can. 

Edited February 16, 2018 by Thurman#1

[Nihilarian]

14 hours ago, K-GunJimKelly12 said:

There isn't a player in this draft that I want the Bills to stay away from more.  I have seen enough of receivers and backs having to adjust their route to catch a poorly thrown ball, and having to break their stride, making them unable to get run after the catch yardage.  Tyrod can't even make the short throws to his receivers in stride consistently and I saw the same thing with Jackson when I watched Louisville games.  Simply just not accurate and that is the hardest thing for QB's to improve on.  

Like Mike Mayock stated he watched him make an amazing throw only to follow it up with a few bad throws...then make another amazing throw. He is the not careful with the ball Tyrod Taylor. 

 

If the Bills want another running QB and allow me to list his weakness, 6'3'' 200lbs. He could get killed in the NFL

 

WEAKNESSES

 Carries spindly legs and a thin base. Slightly built for punishing hits he takes from pocket and as a runner. Must learn to slide. Lackadaisical in setup. Throws with excessively narrow base and stiff front side. Flips it rather than throws it. Makes targets work too hard. Sails throws that can end up in hands of a safety. At times, hesitates to challenge safeties in the seam. Low release point leads to tipped passes. Typically gets through reads 1 and 2 before halting progressions. Pocket awareness has room for improvement. Move accuracy on rollouts and scrambles is poor. Highly inaccurate with throws on the move throughout the 2017 season. Underthrown deep balls allow cornerbacks to play the ball. Lacks touch over the heads of middle linebackers into intermediate pockets. Turnover total still too high.

 

http://www.nfl.com/draft/2018/profiles/lamar-jackson?id=2560053

[Thurman#1]

Matt Waldman has done some of his usual excellent breakdowns on Lamar Jackson.

 

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2017/07/18/rsp-boiler-room-no-101-qb-lamar-jackson-louisville-drops-and-accuracy/

 

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2017/12/30/rsp-film-room-no-119-qbs-lamar-jackson-and-josh-allen-in-the-pocket/

 

 

 

[GreggTX]

He reminds me of EJ, but he's better all around. True he's a bit smaller, but I'm ok with that. He's 6'3" and he can gain weight. If a good QB coach could correct his footwork, his accuracy would improve, but that's what they said about EJ too. I'm all in for Rosen, though. I know he's a gamble, but the upside is tempting and we desperately need an elite QB. We have to gamble on Rosen if we get the chance and just try to patch up the holes on our roster as best we can until next year. We'll get a $9 million cap bonus from Marshmellow Dareus' departure in '19.

 

Still, I'd be ok with Jackson. He has great poise and all the mental aspects you want in a QB. Get him to set before throwing more consistently and he could be great. He doesn't ever throw those wounded ducks like EJ and Fitz did, so it makes that 'fix the feet to fix the arm' proposition more credible.

Edited February 16, 2018 by GreggTX

[Da webster guy]

22 hours ago, Bangarang said:

If you’re not accurate in college, you’re likely not going to be accurate in the NFL when the windows are tighter and time to throw is shorter. 

Yeah, sadly this is true.   I just don't think accuracy improves much after you've thrown 20,000 balls in your college career.  Maybe anticipation and footwork helps a little, but accuracy is either in your dna or it isn't.

Deshaun's success is making everybody rethink these athletic Tyrod types, but I just see another Teddy Bridge or Geno Smith in Jackson.

 

 

.

Edited February 16, 2018 by Da webster guy

[BuffaloDave55]

22 hours ago, DCOrange said:

 

Not that completion percentage completely translates to accuracy, but this seems like a good place to post this:

 

 

Looks like Rudolph... and not having to trade away picks.... All charts aside Jackson looks awful against good college defenses.  Will never make it in pro's unless he converts to WR.