Eric Galko of Optimum Scouting: Bills love Rosen (updated with new info)

[ndirish1978]

2 hours ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Based on past trades it'd be something along the lines of picks 21, 22, & 96 this year, and our 1st & 3rd next year. Using the below chart and a 130% multiplier for the team moving up those picks get it done. 

 

Please explain your 130% multiplier comment?

[Chuck Wagon]

12 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

He seems like a young guy who was raised in a manor that could handle being a face of a multi Billion dollar company at 21.  The blue collar working class mantra is overrated.  He is going to be a leader of millionaires.  Those who have issue with what he said just read the headlines and didn't read the articles.  He is an intelligent thoughtful kid.  He is the best thrower of the football in this class.  I believe he has graduated from UCLA already.  Which shows his work ethic to me.  He adds 10 pounds to his lower body then you are in good to go.

 

 

There's a certain section of fans who'll never embrace a QB who doesn't come from a rust belt city with a blue collar background who has been overlooked, unless they raise a Lombardi.  I think that's more than a little bit of the love affair with Mayfield, people see a two time walk on from middle America and want to cheer for that guy vs the blue chip kid from California.  

[CommonCents]

8 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

He seems like a young guy who was raised in a manor that could handle being a face of a multi Billion dollar company at 21.  The blue collar working class mantra is overrated.  He is going to be a leader of millionaires.  Those who have issue with what he said just read the headlines and didn't read the articles.  He is an intelligent thoughtful kid.  He is the best thrower of the football in this class.  I believe he has graduated from UCLA already.  Which shows his work ethic to me.  He adds 10 pounds to his lower body then you are in good to go.

That's looking at the good side of Rosen.

 

The other side of the coin is a kid who had "Rosen  Time" before every QB/WR meeting. In this time Rosen would go off on tangents and the football part wouldn't start until he was finished. When does that end? How does a person that needs that type of treatment ever learn to just shut up and listen?

 

His personality is a big concern but he is good enough that taking the risk seems worth it. The injury talk shouldn't over shadow the personality. If he comes off as a know it all pain in the ass I don't see how he fits with McBeane. 

 

 

Edited February 14, 2018 by Commonsense

[Dr. Who]

4 minutes ago, DCOrange said:

 

Darnold, Mayfield, Allen, and Lamar.

 

I still think Rosen is a 1st round prospect, but I don't like Rosen's combination of injury history, slight build, and lack of mobility. It would scare me to have a guy with a long history of injuries who is also a sitting duck in the pocket and also struggles with decision making under pressure. And I don't think he's as good a passer as his outstanding mechanics would suggest. He struggled with accuracy up until this season, and even this season, he struggled outside of playing against cupcake defenses. He only played one top 30 defense this year and in that game, he was atrocious. And against the mid-tier defenses (ranked 31-75th), he had 7 TDs to 7 potential turnovers (including total fumbles).

Well, that's depressing.  Personally, I've been promoting Mayfield and I also like Darnold, but Rosen is in my top three.  You're good at analytics, so this gives me pause.

[DCOrange]

8 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Well, that's depressing.  Personally, I've been promoting Mayfield and I also like Darnold, but Rosen is in my top three.  You're good at analytics, so this gives me pause.

 

I don't mean to come across like I hate the guy. I'd be happy to have him; he just isn't my preferred choice. Also regarding the analytics, while they aren't good against top & mid-tier teams, at least part of that is also due to him being on an inferior team. Outside of Lamar and Mayfield, I believe Rosen was impacted by drops more than anyone else (roughly twice as much as Darnold and Josh Allen were). For all we know, his numbers would look drastically different in those games if his WRs could catch the ball. That was the one big thing I wish I could have factored in to my analysis that I posted the other day; I have the total drops from PFF but I can't see it broken down on a game-by-game basis. On the flipside, the numbers aren't always indicative of how well they actually played. Like that epic comeback against Texas A&M...Rosen finished with 491 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs, and 2 fumbles, but those numbers don't show the fact that he threw at least two passes that were incredibly easy interceptions that A&M's defenders just couldn't hold on to; one of which went right through the guy's hands and ended up being a TD for Rosen.

 

Edit: More than just being happy to have Rosen, I'd be perfectly fine with them trading up to #2 to get him (if the deal is similar to what Galko is proposing). Like I said, I think he's a good prospect; he just isn't my preferred choice.

Edited February 14, 2018 by DCOrange

[BillsFan130]

To 2? Wow.

 

Not that I am complaining because I would love them to go up and get their guy, but how much would that cost them roughly?

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Commonsense said:

21,22 next years first and one of the seconds this year. Just a guess.

 

I don't see it happening but this would be my favorite move in a very long time. 

 

I think it's gonna take more than that. At least another later round pick.

[Bakin]

He would be the most successful Jewish QB since Sid Luckman!

Hopefully better than Jay Fiedler!

 

[BuffaloHokie13]

13 minutes ago, ndirish1978 said:

Please explain your 130% multiplier comment?

Trades into premium picks in drafts with premium players come at a higher price for the team moving up. Since 2011, trading into the top 2 for a QB has come at an average cost multiplier of 128%. Trading into the top 10 has had a multiplier closer to 109%. Since in this scenario we are trading to pick #2 for a QB, it is likely that our offer will need to be worth ~130% of that pick (93.83 * 130% = 121.98). 21, 22, 96, 2019 1st, and 2019 3rd have a total value of 122.36, which is why I suggested that it would be the cost.

[snamsnoops]

2 hours ago, Teddy KGB said:

 

Based on what loosh?

High level meetings? 

 

[26TrapDraw]

2 hours ago, YoloinOhio said:

He says in his new podcast that he is hearing from talking to scouts and agents that the Bills love Josh Rosen and thinks they will trade up to 2 with the NYG to draft him. 

 

https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-draft-show-quarterback-carousel-update-plus-draft/id1276383397?i=1000402080073&mt=2

[Chuck Wagon]

14 minutes ago, billsfan11 said:

To 2? Wow.

 

Not that I am complaining because I would love them to go up and get their guy, but how much would that cost them roughly?

 

#21, #22, 2019 1st or 2nd, #96 (or a third next year) and potentially Glenn seems to be value on the chart and the general consensus on price.

[RobH063]

19 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

He seems like a young guy who was raised in a manor that could handle being a face of a multi Billion dollar company at 21.  The blue collar working class mantra is overrated.  He is going to be a leader of millionaires.  Those who have issue with what he said just read the headlines and didn't read the articles.  He is an intelligent thoughtful kid.  He is the best thrower of the football in this class.  I believe he has graduated from UCLA already.  Which shows his work ethic to me.  He adds 10 pounds to his lower body then you are in good to go.

 

I don't doubt anything you're saying. I'm sure all of it is Spot on. I'm just saying, if you come from money and you have the intelligence to make a lot more money, and your upbringing has all been seen through Rose colored glasses, is Buffalo where you want to spend 10-15 years? I'm not knocking Buffalo in any way but it's not like up and coming millionaire's are flocking to Buffalo to live. So if the Bills were to draft him, I see him hitting free agency after his rookie contract and going where his opportunities besides football is more in line to what he's used to. Many football players have done this. Many free agents won't come to Buffalo at all! It's the nature of the beast. So is it worth spending a Kings ransom on a guy and then hoping he learns to love Buffalo? If he doesn't and leaves, this board will explode because of how much was spent to get the guy in the first place.

[racketmaster]

Draft season is in full swing. Seems like a smokescreen. Bills were reported to have been in love with Darnold at end of college season. 

 

I don’t see Rosen and Mayfield being personality fits for this organization. They have a certain mentality and acquire players accordingly. It would be very surprising if this regime deviated from that, especially with the position being the face of the franchise. I also don’t see the bills targeting Jackson. He has too many similarities to Taylor and it appears they want to move on from Tyrod. 

 

That leaves Darnold, Allen and Rudolph as the quarterbacks the Bills will most likely target. 

[BillsSbSoon]

Rosen is the only qb i would make the trade up for. Just watch the tape. Darnold isnt really close to him imo. 

[BillsFan130]

5 minutes ago, Chuck Wagon said:

 

#21, #22, 2019 1st or 2nd, #96 (or a third next year) and potentially Glenn seems to be value on the chart and the general consensus on price.

Damn that's a lot lol

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 hour ago, MAJBobby said:

 

Well really cant pull the deal right now if you are Bills. UNLESS they will be happy with either Rosen or Darnold. Otherwise cant get there now to have Browns take your guy. 

How could they not be happy with both? 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Trades into premium picks in drafts with premium players come at a higher price for the team moving up. Since 2011, trading into the top 2 for a QB has come at an average cost multiplier of 128%. Trading into the top 10 has had a multiplier closer to 109%. Since in this scenario we are trading to pick #2 for a QB, it is likely that our offer will need to be worth ~130% of that pick (93.83 * 130% = 121.98). 21, 22, 96, 2019 1st, and 2019 3rd have a total value of 122.36, which is why I suggested that it would be the cost.

 

#21 + #22 = 89.59, which leaves 32.39 left.

 

Throw in #96 (6.87) and we're at 25.52 left, which is about pick #40-41.

 

What it depends on is Glenn's value. We have to do this analysis under the assumption that he is healthy and cleared to play, otherwise why trade for him? Here is a comparable scenario:

 

SEA traded a 2018 3rd round pick and 2019 2nd round pick (essentially two 3rds this year, which is essentially one 2nd this year) for HOU's LT Duane Brown and a 5th round pick. 

 

That makes me think Glenn would be worth about a late 2nd round pick, which is not too far off the 25.52 value we were left with above. 

 

Using Hill's chart, the 130% multiplier, and the Brown trade, I think we could swing the following:

 

#21, #22, #96, #149 (or a 2019 4th), and Glenn for #2, which would be huge in keeping future high picks and our two 2nd rounders this year. 

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 minute ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

#21 + #22 = 89.59, which leaves 32.39 left.

 

Throw in #96 (6.87) and we're at 25.52 left, which is about pick #40-41.

 

What it depends on is Glenn's value. We have to do this analysis under the assumption that he is healthy and cleared to play, otherwise why trade for him? Here is a comparable scenario:

 

SEA traded a 2018 3rd round pick and 2019 2nd round pick (essentially two 3rds this year, which is essentially one 2nd this year) for HOU's LT Duane Brown and a 5th round pick. 

 

That makes me think Glenn would be worth about a late 2nd round pick, which is not too far off the 25.52 value we were left with above. 

 

Using Hill's chart, the 130% multiplier, and the Brown trade, I think we could swing the following:

 

#21, #22, #96, #149 (or a 2019 4th), and Glenn for #2, which would be huge in keeping future high picks and our two 2nd rounders this year. 

Yeah, there's a few ways to balance it. Whether they want to preserve future picks or current picks depends on how they feel about the depth of the respective classes I suppose. I structured it assuming we wanted to keep our picks this year, to the extent possible.

[Playoffs?]

4 minutes ago, TheTruthHurts said:

How could they not be happy with both? 

I’m not sold on Darnold.  Would rather pay Cousins and hope he plays at a high level for the next 5 years. If we trade up big time and draft a flop of a QB, this will set us back substantially in the short and long run.