mannc Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Drops are a definitely "real" statistic in my opinion because they are important plays and can be measured with at least a decent degree of accuracy. I just could care less about whether it's "official." That's my point. You're stressing "official," which -- to repeat -- I couldn't care less about as it pertains to this. In any event, hadn't we switched to sacks taken? That is a "real" stat by your measure. Dave, do you count the Int as a drop by Clay? Because if you do, I think that would be exhibit A in the criticism of the PFF approach. It would have been, at the very least, a very good catch by Clay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Royale with Cheese Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Dave, do you count the Int as a drop by Clay? Because if you do, I think that would be exhibit A in the criticism of the PFF approach. It would have been, at the very least, a very good catch by Clay. Exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BADOLBILZ Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 I thought the Tyrod of yesterday looked a lot like the Tyrod who excelled in that last Miami game last year......maybe even a little improved awareness. Only differences were about 100 less yards passing and a subsequently drawn out competitive portion of the game because of a lesser WR corps........and of course, a lesser opponent. If Watkins catches that same pass Matthews does it would have been a 21 mph house call by the time he was done.........and there would have likely been other downfield ops just like vs Miami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 (edited) Dave, do you count the Int as a drop by Clay? Because if you do, I think that would be exhibit A in the criticism of the PFF approach. It would have been, at the very least, a very good catch by Clay. I think it would qualify as a solid catch by Clay - not "very good." That sort of catch is made *literally all of the time* by good NFL receivers, and Clay is definitely paid like one. You think Anquan Boldin in his prime drops that? No way. It obviously wasn't a perfect throw but it was still highly catchable - eye-level with the receiver literally facing the QB and with the ball slightly to his left side. You guys have crazy high standards for catchable balls by NFL receivers if you think that constitutes a very good catch. Having said all of this, drops happen on every team, and the Bills weren't really plagued by them yesterday. Edited September 11, 2017 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 I think it would qualify as a solid catch by Clay - not "very good." That sort of catch is made *literally all of the time* by good NFL receivers, and Clay is definitely paid like one. You think Anquan Boldin in his prime drops that? No way. It obviously wasn't a perfect throw but it was still highly catchable - eye-level with the receiver literally facing the QB and with the ball slightly to his left side. You guys have crazy high standards for catchable balls by NFL receivers if you think that constitutes a very good catch. Having said all of this, drops happen on every team, and the Bills weren't really plagued by them yesterday. So you would have counted it as a drop? Obviously, we disagree about how hard a catch it would have been (I've watched the replay about 10 times and it appears to me the ball was high and Clay was drilled hard in the back the second the ball touched his hands while he was running at full speed), but the fact that two reasonable people watching the same tape have such opposing views of it shows the flaw in the PFF approach. It will be interesting to see the play from a different angle on the all-22s; the television replay just isn't very good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dave mcbride Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 (edited) So you would have counted it as a drop? Obviously, we disagree about how hard a catch it would have been (I've watched the replay about 10 times and it appears to me the ball was high and Clay was drilled hard in the back the second the ball touched his hands while he was running at full speed), but the fact that two reasonable people watching the same tape have such opposing views of it shows the flaw in the PFF approach. It will be interesting to see the play from a different angle on the all-22s; the television replay just isn't very good. If you have a good clip from the backside, it'd be great to see it again. I watched it 3-4 times yesterday, but during the game. I can't find one now. He was indeed hit hard, but it had already gone right through his hands by that point. He never got a hold on it, so the hit was kind of a moot issue (except perhaps for the hearing-footsteps possibility). Edited September 11, 2017 by dave mcbride Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 So you would have counted it as a drop? Obviously, we disagree about how hard a catch it would have been (I've watched the replay about 10 times and it appears to me the ball was high and Clay was drilled hard in the back the second the ball touched his hands while he was running at full speed), but the fact that two reasonable people watching the same tape have such opposing views of it shows the flaw in the PFF approach. It will be interesting to see the play from a different angle on the all-22s; the television replay just isn't very good. I thought he should have caught it, too. But more importantly, what constitutes "a drop" varies widely from fan to fan. Plus, and you pointed out both of these, the angle you see the replay has a huge influence on whether you think it was a drop or not. Sometimes it looks like a clear drop and the fourth angle shows the DB got a fingernail on it that changed the trajectory of the ball and made it way harder to catch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 So you would have counted it as a drop? Obviously, we disagree about how hard a catch it would have been (I've watched the replay about 10 times and it appears to me the ball was high and Clay was drilled hard in the back the second the ball touched his hands while he was running at full speed), but the fact that two reasonable people watching the same tape have such opposing views of it shows the flaw in the PFF approach. It will be interesting to see the play from a different angle on the all-22s; the television replay just isn't very good. It was by no means an acrobatic catch. He just had to make it a smidge behind his body. It was not high. Not low. Literally eye level to his left shoulder. The hit came after he already missed it. It hit his hands at eye level within the radius of his left shoulder pad. Its a clear drop to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Tyrod is 100% holding this offense back. Wow. You're a troll, and you're not even trying to hide it. This adds nothing to this discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnBonhamRocks Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Won't wow anyone stat-sheet-wise, but thought those couple of times Taylor slid in bounds towards the end of the game showed great understanding and awareness of the situation. QB stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Dave, do you count the Int as a drop by Clay? Because if you do, I think that would be exhibit A in the criticism of the PFF approach. It would have been, at the very least, a very good catch by Clay. FWIW, sportingcharts.com defines a dropped pass as follows: "This statistic counts the number of times an intended receiver touches the ball but fails to catch it. If the ball is thrown but the receiver never gets his hands on it, it is not recorded as a drop." I believe that would count the INT as a drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 FWIW, sportingcharts.com defines a dropped pass as follows: "This statistic counts the number of times an intended receiver touches the ball but fails to catch it. If the ball is thrown but the receiver never gets his hands on it, it is not recorded as a drop." I believe that would count the INT as a drop. It would, and it would be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted September 11, 2017 Author Share Posted September 11, 2017 He didn't play well enough that I wouldn't move on. He's the same QB no matter how you slice it. Which QBs in the league do you really feel confident in as starters moving forward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 (edited) Which QBs in the league do you really feel confident in as starters moving forward?Objectively? Brady, Rodgers, Ben, Brees, Rivers, Carr, Winston, Mariota, Cousins, Smith, Stafford, Luck, Wilson Subjectively? Add Wentz to the group above. Edited September 11, 2017 by jmc12290 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buff808 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 I can't believe guys are still bashing Tayloy. I really don't knot think they are even watching the same game or just don't understand the position. He missed a couple of passes but so did Brady does that mean Brady sucks too, to be honest Brady played worse than Tyrod. I wish you would tell me what he should have done better. First the coach called the plays, second if the Reciever was covered, he threw the ball away. Third there were dropped passes. Fourth, when guys were covered he ran and picked up yardage. Fifth the interception hit Clay in the hands and was picked off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kirby Jackson Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Objectively? Brady, Rodgers, Ben, Brees, Rivers, Carr, Winston, Mariota, Cousins, Smith, Stafford, Luck Subjectively? Add Wentz to the group above. You are comfortable with Alex Smith but not Russell Wilson? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 You are comfortable with Alex Smith but not Russell Wilson? Haha nah i knew I was forgetting somebody! Wilson should be up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 I thought the Tyrod of yesterday looked a lot like the Tyrod who excelled in that last Miami game last year......maybe even a little improved awareness. Only differences were about 100 less yards passing and a subsequently drawn out competitive portion of the game because of a lesser WR corps........and of course, a lesser opponent. If Watkins catches that same pass Matthews does it would have been a 21 mph house call by the time he was done.........and there would have likely been other downfield ops just like vs Miami. I think a lot of that had to do that we threw the ball very little down the stretch.....because we didnt need to like the Miami game. To me it will be about consistancy.....can he do this game to game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
26CornerBlitz Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 @JaySkurski Rick Dennison says "I'm happy with the way he played yesterday," regarding QB Tyrod Taylor. #Bills @ChrisBrownBills Dennison: felt Tyrod was good with his timing in passing game, even threw it away when we had to, kept us on schedule as an offense. #Bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobobonators Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 @JaySkurski Rick Dennison says "I'm happy with the way he played yesterday," regarding QB Tyrod Taylor. #Bills @ChrisBrownBills Dennison: felt Tyrod was good with his timing in passing game, even threw it away when we had to, kept us on schedule as an offense. #Bills So TT didnt have a below average/bad game yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 So TT didnt have a below average/bad game yesterday? We were 4-11 on third down with Taylor passing. 4-6 on third down running. You be the judge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 We were 4-11 on third down with Taylor passing. 4-6 on third down running. You be the judge. God your pathetic...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 God your pathetic...... You're gonna get another vacation with that kinda talk, Johnny. Step up yo game. Contribute something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 @JaySkurski Rick Dennison says "I'm happy with the way he played yesterday," regarding QB Tyrod Taylor. #Bills @ChrisBrownBills Dennison: felt Tyrod was good with his timing in passing game, even threw it away when we had to, kept us on schedule as an offense. #Bills This was my biggest positive takeaway. He played smarter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Gun Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Objectively? Brady, Rodgers, Ben, Brees, Rivers, Carr, Winston, Mariota, Cousins, Smith, Stafford, Luck, Wilson Subjectively? Add Wentz to the group above. Newton, Prescott, Ryan, Manning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Newton, Prescott, Ryan, Manning? I'm drunk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky Landing Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 It would, and it would be wrong. He got his hands on it, and didn't pull it in. Regardless of where the ball went after that, how is that not a dropped pass? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 I'm drunk! Late start today, huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
section122 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 (edited) We were 4-11 on third down with Taylor passing. 4-6 on third down running. You be the judge. Buffalo Bills 1st downs: 10 by rush, 11 by pass, 2 by penalty 3rd and 7 Tyrod passes for a first down 3rd and 3 Tyrod rushes for first down 3rd and Goal Tyrod throws INT 3rd and 12 Tyrod incomplete 3rd and 11 Tyrod complete for 14 yards (imo the best play of the game for TT) 3rd and 3 McCoy rush for 1st down 3rd and Goal TD to Clay 3rd and 21 Tolbert run for 3 yards 3rd and 5 Tyrod incomplete, penalty, result was a 1st down 3rd and 16 Tyrod incomplete 3rd and 9 Tyrod scrambles for 3, 4th down 3rd and 8 Tyrod rushes for first down 3rd and 2 Tyrod complete, 1st down 3rd and 9 Tyrod complete short of first 3rd and 8 Tyrod incomplete 3rd and 7 Tyrod rushes for 1st down 3rd and 17 Tyrod scrambles for 5, 4th down 3rd and 12 Tyrod kneeled Do you see a pattern? Here are some: On every 3rd down save 2 the coaches wanted the ball in TT's hands. Tyrod ran for 3 of the rushing first downs. Every single 3rd and less than 5 was converted Do you notice at the end of the game when the Bills were in rush rush pass all of the 3rd down attempts were 3rd and 7+ which has a low conversion level LEAGUE wide Context matters... Edited September 11, 2017 by section122 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Buffalo Bills 1st downs: 10 by rush, 11 by pass, 2 by penalty 3rd and 7 Tyrod passes for a first down 3rd and 3 Tyrod rushes for first down 3rd and Goal Tyrod throws INT 3rd and 12 Tyrod incomplete 3rd and 11 Tyrod complete for 14 yards (imo the best play of the game for TT) 3rd and 3 McCoy rush for 1st down 3rd and Goal TD to Clay 3rd and 21 Tolbert run for 3 yards 3rd and 5 Tyrod incomplete, penalty, result was a 1st down 3rd and 16 Tyrod incomplete 3rd and 9 Tyrod scrambles for 3, 4th down 3rd and 8 Tyrod rushes for first down 3rd and 2 Tyrod complete, 1st down 3rd and 9 Tyrod complete short of first 3rd and 8 Tyrod incomplete 3rd and 7 Tyrod rushes for 1st down 3rd and 17 Tyrod scrambles for 5, 4th down 3rd and 12 Tyrod kneeled Do you see a pattern? Here are some: On every 3rd down save 2 the coaches wanted the ball in TT's hands. Tyrod ran for 3 of the rushing first downs. Every single 3rd and less than 5 was converted Do you notice at the end of the game when the Bills were in rush rush pass all of the 3rd down attempts were 3rd and 7+ which has a low conversion level LEAGUE wide Context matters... Bills were 8-17 on third down conversions. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201709100buf.htm Your data is inaccurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 He got his hands on it, and didn't pull it in. Regardless of where the ball went after that, how is that not a dropped pass?He never got his hands on it. He was drilled in the back as soon as the ball touched his hands. Hopefully, there will be a better angle on the all-22s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Tyrod is who he is at this point. Pretty average at best QB. I don't ever see the Bills being a playoff team with him at QB.We can most certainly be playoff team with him as the QB. If our defense becomes top 10 and with a top 8 rushing team and TT playing as well as he did yesterday, we are a playoff team Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloHokie13 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Bills were 8-17 on third down conversions. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201709100buf.htm Your data is inaccurate. Just went through the play-by-play on espn. We were 9-18 on 3rd down (8-17 on plays, 1-1 on penalties). Feel free to look for yourself. I'm guessing PFR didn't count the one from a penalty as an attempt/conversion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Magox Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 And yet, KC has gone to the playoffs 3 out of the last 4 years with Alex Smith calling signals. Riddle me that. Alex Smith is better than TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
section122 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Bills were 8-17 on third down conversions. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/201709100buf.htm Your data is inaccurate. I'm glad you found a link. I went through the game log and did the work myself. Look again. I have all 18 3rd down plays. Please speak to the points I made now that we know the information is correct. On every 3rd down save 2 the coaches wanted the ball in TT's hands. Tyrod ran for 3 of the rushing first downs. Every single 3rd and less than 5 was converted Do you notice at the end of the game when the Bills were in rush rush pass all of the 3rd down attempts were 3rd and 7+ which has a low conversion level LEAGUE wide Context matters... The 21 first downs obviously didn't all come on 3rd down (I believe this is what you think is incorrect) as they converted 8 of them for first downs. By the way that 8 for 17 which is 47.1% is currently 7th best in the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gugny Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Alex Smith is better than TT Oh my God, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
section122 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 (edited) Just went through the play-by-play on espn. We were 9-18 on 3rd down (8-17 on plays, 1-1 on penalties). Feel free to look for yourself. I'm guessing PFR didn't count the one from a penalty as an attempt/conversion. Yup if he went through my post he would have seen that is exactly what I did as well. Also they were 5 for 7 to start the game. They stopped converting when they went into their shell and started the run run pass. Alex Smith is better than TT I actually think Alex Smith is the best player comp for TT. Edited September 11, 2017 by section122 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kelly the Dog Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Oh my God, yes. And yet if you put Alex Smith on the Bills the last two years with the WRs injuries, and coaching and horrid defense, he doesn't play as well. Probably worse than TT. And if you put TT on the Chiefs the last couple years with the good coaching and great defense he probably plays a little better than he did on the Bills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BringBackOrton Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Alex Smith is better than TT Indisputably. I'm glad you found a link. I went through the game log and did the work myself. Look again. I have all 18 3rd down plays. Please speak to the points I made now that we know the information is correct. On every 3rd down save 2 the coaches wanted the ball in TT's hands. Tyrod ran for 3 of the rushing first downs. Every single 3rd and less than 5 was converted Do you notice at the end of the game when the Bills were in rush rush pass all of the 3rd down attempts were 3rd and 7+ which has a low conversion level LEAGUE wide Context matters... The 21 first downs obviously didn't all come on 3rd down (I believe this is what you think is incorrect) as they converted 8 of them for first downs. By the way that 8 for 17 which is 47.1% is currently 7th best in the NFL. While that's true, Tyrod didn't deliver when passing. He's the QB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
section122 Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 I just looked at more stats. The 23 first downs the Bills had were good for 5th in the league. The 11 passing first downs tied for 14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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