Why are you so sure we aren't a playoff team?

[BillsCelticsAngelsBama]

No Quarterback, sorry Taylor has been given two years and we've seen he's not good enough. I don't even consider Peterman anything, he is a rookie dump off artist.

 

RB - McCoy is dynamic. After him is a 32 year old, 260 pound FB and two journeyman fringe NFL special teamers.

 

WRs are among the least talented, least deep in the league. Think of the Steelers group, now think of the Bills.

 

Likewise Tight End is a group of mediocre talent. Clay has proven to be average, and after that there is no proven player.

 

Still no answers at RG or RT for the 3rd year in a row now. Better hope Glenn stays upright.

 

A group of unknowns at CB, but mostly cast away players and depth guys behind White.

 

No Linebacker depth, don't understand cutting Hodges. Again best players are on the defensive line.

 

Coaching - McDermott has shown nothing that proves he can Coach. The team struggled with penalties all preseason and his offense could not score.

 

This team has no depth due to years of HORRIBLE drafting, and this regime has gutted a chunk of what talent remained. The Bills always have very poor records against the real teams on their schedule, and that gap is going to grow this year.

Exactly 100 %

And this is why selling my season tickets is profitable.

Suckers are everywhere

The GM quit on the team, the team will soon follow.

 

Everything looks dark before it goes completely black.

 

Lucky to win 4.

I saw the roster

 

This isn't a "tank" ... at least not intentionally. That's the really scary part. They really believe their own BS.

 

Posts #2 thru #17 hit it out of the park with post #15 being the most important one

After 17 straight years of watching a non playoff team, I think I know one when I see one. And man,do I see one.

4-12, maybe 5-11. Hopefully low enough to draft our qb without giving anything up to move up.

 

If we land the first pick in the draft which, the way we've been deleting talent and keeping the 'VLADS', is possible, I wonder how many college QB's would decide .... "uh, maybe I won't come out early".

[transplantbillsfan]

Tons of posters I've never seen in my brief time posting here and many of them with cryptically derisive comments like "have you seen this roster," absolute fallacies like "who would the Patriots take from our team other than McCoy and up front insults like "put down the kool aid!" and I'm wondering if these posters will be around if this team wins.

 

I saw someone mentioned the defensive scheme not being a fit except for the fact that 3/4ths of our defensive front had 10 or more sacks 3 years ago when they last played in a 3-4 and our 4th guy is a natural 3-4 fit as opposed to 4-3... that goes for our MLB, too. And why would anyone think White is going to be expected to be Gilmore like when our CBs will be in zone coverage most of the time? Safety depth is obviously a concern but the 2 guys starting seem a helluva lot better than what we've had for a few years.

 

Frankly, I expect a step back from the offense but it also wouldn't shock me if an experienced play caller like Dennison is able to maximize the talent the team has and keep them above average.

 

The OL is probably going to continue to be great at run blocking and not great at pass blocking. I don't think they'll be much different than the last couple years, though Miller is another year more experienced and hopefully Dawkins gets in there at RT to start the season, otherwise Henderson can hopefully step in week 4 to shore up that spot. Still, not a ton of change on the OL and OLs usually do better the longer they play together.

 

Let's also remember that Dennison's offense is essentially Shanahan's in terms of the zone blocking/running. That's a scheme that's very RB friendly (look at Clinton Portis in Denver vs Washington... 5.5 YPA for 2 years in Denver and never higher than 4.3 in Washington), so watching Banyard, Tolbert or Jones (or the 3 of them combined) shouldn't be a huge surprise.

 

Saying our WR corps is one of the worst in the NFL might not be completely inaccurate, but it was last year as well considering we were trotting out Walt Powell, Brandon Tate and Justin Hunter as our WR corps at one point. Matthews has proven to be a solid NFL WR and we're gonna see what happens with Jones but he looks pretty promising even for non "kool aid drinkers."

 

Clay appears to be seriously involved in the design of the offense, which is great because he's still clearly talented. O'Leary looks like he's going to consistently be in there for 2 TE sets and looks like a fantastic safety valve. Thomas could be a gem if he develops.

 

QB has been talked to death. We're going to see what shakes out but whatever all of us think of Taylor I think universally we probably have more faith in Peterman as our backup if Taylor is benched or hurt than we did with Manuel.

 

 

And C'Mon man!!! How can people not be excited about our new HC?! Rex literally lost games because of horrible time management, micro managing and just absolute incompetence at points. McDermott won't be perfect, but you guys really don't think coaching changes can make all the difference in the world?

 

 

With the improvement I could see in our Defense and slight regression for our offense, I think our coach could factor into multiple wins alone.

 

I'm not calling playoffs. But I can't believe there are some who're so utterly confident this team wins 3 games or less! Just insane! I guess with that confidence these people won't be watching the games on Sundays?

[Straight Hucklebuck]

That's what I love about this board. It's the unbridled optimism of Bills fans.

 

Those so called experts are almost never right with their pre-season predicitons. Bills fans know a lot more about their team than the talking heads in the media. I say we make the playoffs. And guess what my opinion is worth just as much as theirs because until they play the games, nobody really knows from week to week who will win in the NFL.

Yup those "negative" fans are always wrong, oh wait actually no they're not, it's been 17 years of no Playoffs.

 

But you're right, let's blindly follow this regime and support every head scratching move they make.

[Putin]

Tougher schedule, offense that doesn't fit the players we have, weak receivers with no one to draw safeties away from playing near the line of scrimmage, and a ton of roster turnover as well as new coaches and scheme on defense with a suspect secondary/linebacking corps.

 

I have this team between 5-7 wins.

Wow your pretty optimistic with up to 7 wins ,

I don't think we win more then 4-5 wins , IMO we're in the top 5 worse teams in the NFL this year ...

[transplantbillsfan]

Yup those "negative" fans are always wrong, oh wait actually no they're not, it's been 17 years of no Playoffs.

 

But you're right, let's blindly follow this regime and support every head scratching move they make.

One of these years you'll be wrong... maybe this is the year

 

I think that's what we're all hoping for

[Straight Hucklebuck]

"And C'Mon man!!! How can people not be excited about our new HC?!"

 

- Well he only talks in platitudes and cliches for one. Everything is a process. He is the classic Topper. He's done it all, seen it all, done everything, knows everything, has every answer.

 

- He is obsessed with Special Teams.

 

- Today he mentioned something like showing "what the city of Buffalo is about". What's that Coach? Workin' real hard, bringin' the ole lunchpail to Factory Job and putting in a 16 hour day at the press? Of course we need a team based on Toughness and running the ball because in December it snows. How does he know what the heck this city is about? He's never been here before and it shows with his obsession with getting as many Panthers on the team as possible.

 

How about a Coach who wants to live in 2017 and develop a top notch passing game? Instead of punts, a Coach that wants to go for it on 4th down and hang 40 on you? Nope we're going to get 3rd Down and manageable.

 

McDermott is joyless so far.

[transplantbillsfan]

"And C'Mon man!!! How can people not be excited about our new HC?!"

 

- Well he only talks in platitudes and cliches for one. Everything is a process. He is the classic Topper. He's done it all, seen it all, done everything, knows everything, has every answer.

 

- He is obsessed with Special Teams.

 

- Today he mentioned something like showing "what the city of Buffalo is about". What's that Coach? Workin' real hard, bringin' the ole lunchpail to Factory Job and putting in a 16 hour day at the press? Of course we need a team based on Toughness and running the ball because in December it snows. How does he know what the heck this city is about? He's never been here before and it shows with his obsession with getting as many Panthers on the team as possible.

 

How about a Coach who wants to live in 2017 and develop a top notch passing game? Instead of punts, a Coach that wants to go for it on 4th down and hang 40 on you? Nope we're going to get 3rd Down and manageable.

 

McDermott is joyless so far.

You just largely described Bill Bellicheck.

 

Persona in a coach might not be a good thing, ya know. Remember the last guy?

[Straight Hucklebuck]

You just largely described Bill Bellicheck.

 

Persona in a coach might not be a good thing, ya know. Remember the last guy?

Our Coach wants to run the ball because we play in Buffalo, Belichick has outsmarted the league by reinventing how to use multiple RBs as pass catchers, taking over the middle of the field with Tight Ends, using pick routes to perfection, going for it on 4th down, making trades for talented players and is a defensive mastermind to boot.

 

He's nothing like our Coach.

[transplantbillsfan]

Our Coach wants to run the ball because we play in Buffalo, Belichick has outsmarted the league by reinventing how to use multiple RBs as pass catchers, taking over the middle of the field with Tight Ends, using pick routes to perfection, going for it on 4th down, making trades for talented players and is a defensive mastermind to boot.

 

He's nothing like our Coach.

All of that is what Bellicheck is now, it's not what he was in his first few years when he was the Patriots HC and they were still winning Super Bowls.

 

What did any of that have to do with the whole personality thing and all the "no joy" you were talking about?

 

And you don't have a clue if McDermott isn't going to do something similar.

Edited September 5, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[reddogblitz]

Schedule

Schedules that look difficult in August sometimes don't look so difficult in November and vice versa. rex' first win over Indy coming off AFC Championship looked tough, but turned out, they sucked.

i look at the team to see if any of the players could start for the stinking pats and contribute. i have shady and that's really about it

 

I don't know. We keep sending them players that experts on TBD say suck like Hogan and Gillislee and they win Lombardis with them.

[Thurman#1]

 

This isn't a "tank" ... at least not intentionally. That's the really scary part. They really believe their own BS.

 

 

 

Tanks simply don't exist in football, a sport where the players and coaches have salaries that aren't guaranteed. GMs sometimes do sell out the present for the future, and this is called a full or complete rebuild.

 

Which this is not. If it had been, Kyle Williams, Tyrod and Shady would be gone, Shady traded for good value. It's a rebuild. Not a complete rebuild but a rebuild. They've made it clear that they're building for the future as their priority while still not giving up this year.

 

As for BS, what BS? Are they saying they're headed for the Super Bowl this year? The playoffs? They aren't BSing. They want to primarily build a team while not entirely giving up on this year. But yeah, the stress is on the future and team building. As it should be.

Edited September 5, 2017 by Thurman#1

[Thurman#1]

Fine ready for it.

 

QB- you have a concussed starter that doesnt fit this system

One bit and the WR that made him look like a avg QB was traded in the offseason. So instead this QB looked like trash all preseason (not that he was a world beater before). You have a vet that knows the system cool. But FLAT OUT SUCKS in the thing that is called playing QB. A rookie that is very right handed, stares down WRs and struggles against pressure but fans want to annoint as promising. He may have a ceiling as a top end BU and spot starter and that is ok for a 5th round QB. Oo and a sub 6YPA

 

WR- ha ha ha ha. Well they can block well. Outside Zay, Matthews there is NOTHING. But thats alright we wont throw alot anyway.

 

RB- shady older ooo and not to mention got way older at the position with Cutting JWill for mediocre

 

OL richie penalties will continue because of technique issues in a system he doesnt fit. The fact Ducasse is still here and competing for likelt the first start is laughable and ooo we severely downgraded out coaching talent here.

 

DL- i dont have any issues here maybe depth

 

LB - ahhh a predestrian group that just lost some more depth with Cutting Hodges

 

DBs- Look to be ok against offenses not gameplanning to pick their zones apart.

 

So all and all yep a bad football team and no where close to a playoff team with a much harder schedule. Likely a 6 win team at best

 

 

 

I don't know if I'd say "at best," but yeah, four to six wins is probably best guess.

 

Hell, Vegas has our over-under around six, and they shade everything towards the middle. They have one team less than five at 4.5, though last year was reasonably average with five teams winning less than five games. The different sites have slight differences but we're generally considered around the fourth-worst team in terms of expectations. And for good reason.

 

People who want to look only at players are avoiding the obvious. We're switching schemes on both sides of the ball. This hurts. It just does. It takes time and experience to internalize a new system. It often helps a bit for a game or two especially on offense because teams don't know what to expect, but once they do, teams know what you're doing and your guys don't, or at least not to the extent that players who have been in the same systems for a while know what they're doing. Guys in new systems have to think.

 

The rushing game in particular seems to have been hurt by the switch to the new system. They still have Shady and maybe three good run OLs, but they've lost the Roman system which appears to have been responsible for a lot of their success at the run game. And opponent fear of the run game helped Tyrod and the pass game a great deal. My guess is that we'll still be a pretty good run team, but not the undisputed #1 juggernaut we were last year. Top seven would be my guess, for what little that's worth. But less fearful than last year's group and the ripples from that will spread.

Edited September 5, 2017 by Thurman#1

[unbillievable]

I do not consider any Bills fan, still posting on an Alternate team board after 18years into a playoff drought, a band-wagon fan.

 

It's okay to say this isn't a playoff team..

 

...are we even able to punt well?

[transplantbillsfan]

 

 

 

I don't know if I'd say "at best," but yeah, four to six wins is probably best guess.

 

Hell, Vegas has our over-under around six, and they shade everything towards the middle. They have one team less than five at 4.5, though last year was reasonably average with five teams winning less than five games. The different sites have slight differences but we're generally considered around the fourth-worst team in terms of expectations. And for good reason.

 

People who want to look only at players are avoiding the obvious. We're switching schemes on both sides of the ball. This hurts. It just does. It takes time and experience to internalize a new system. It often helps a bit for a game or two especially on offense because teams don't know what to expect, but once they do, teams know what you're doing and your guys don't, or at least not to the extent that players who have been in the same systems for a while know what they're doing. Guys in new systems have to think.

 

The rushing game in particular seems to have been hurt by the switch to the new system. They still have Shady and maybe three good run OLs, but they've lost the Roman system which appears to have been responsible for a lot of their success at the run game. And opponent fear of the run game helped Tyrod and the pass game a great deal. My guess is that we'll still be a pretty good run team, but not the undisputed #1 juggernaut we were last year. Top seven would be my guess, for what little that's worth. But less fearful than last year's group and the ripples from that will spread.

Obvious?

 

Sorry, don't agree, primarily for the Defense, which has at least half of its players (Kyle, Marcel, Hughes, Lawson, P Brown, Gaines and likely both our Safeties) who will probably thrive in this new 3-4 defense. Some because they're built better for it. Some because they've already thrived in it. And remember the sudden improvement in our D back with Pettine and then even more so with Schwartz? How long were those DCs with the team and how were we, again?

 

This idea that changing systems is an obvious downgrade seems a little naive considering there are countless examples throughout history that show the contrary.

[oldmanfan]

Yup those "negative" fans are always wrong, oh wait actually no they're not, it's been 17 years of no Playoffs.

 

But you're right, let's blindly follow this regime and support every head scratching move they make.

No one is blindly following things. On the other hand I don't believe either in this board or the BBMB that I have ever seen you make a positive comment about the team.

 

The OP listed every position and compared to last year and in round so showed they are pretty similar to last year. You talk about the CB being bad, they have a first round guy at one spot and experienced guys at the other two spots. Safeties are better. And so on. Whether they are playoff caliber who knows. To me it depends on how well Dennison's offense works. My guy is they aren't in the playoffs, but they won't only have 1-4 wins like snarky posters like to say.

 

Perhaps it is you that blindly posts negativity. Look in the mirror

 

 

 

I don't know if I'd say "at best," but yeah, four to six wins is probably best guess.

 

Hell, Vegas has our over-under around six, and they shade everything towards the middle. They have one team less than five at 4.5, though last year was reasonably average with five teams winning less than five games. The different sites have slight differences but we're generally considered around the fourth-worst team in terms of expectations. And for good reason.

 

People who want to look only at players are avoiding the obvious. We're switching schemes on both sides of the ball. This hurts. It just does. It takes time and experience to internalize a new system. It often helps a bit for a game or two especially on offense because teams don't know what to expect, but once they do, teams know what you're doing and your guys don't, or at least not to the extent that players who have been in the same systems for a while know what they're doing. Guys in new systems have to think.

 

The rushing game in particular seems to have been hurt by the switch to the new system. They still have Shady and maybe three good run OLs, but they've lost the Roman system which appears to have been responsible for a lot of their success at the run game. And opponent fear of the run game helped Tyrod and the pass game a great deal. My guess is that we'll still be a pretty good run team, but not the undisputed #1 juggernaut we were last year. Top seven would be my guess, for what little that's worth. But less fearful than last year's group and the ripples from that will spread.

Agree on the offense but the D they simplified and put guys in better positions. Guys like Brown have said it's a much easier and better system.

[mead107]

19-0 baby

[8-8 Forever?]

not sure we're not. everything in the world points away from it, but they could be 100% healthy all year, jell behind NP, ZJ could come out of nowhere and be OROY and Shady could break the all purpose yards record as he will have 30-40 touches/targets per game. who knows. how's that for optimism?

[Keukasmallies]

"Why are you so sure we aren't a playoff team?"

 

Unfortunately, with the Bills, yesterday is the best predictor of tomorrow.

[oldmanfan]

Except they are letting go of or trading good, young talent while keeping veteran players.

 

Makes 0 sense. And next year there will be even more turnover with these veteran players another year older.

Well, let's just look at this in detail. They traded two young guys in Watkins and Darby. And got back two young guys in Matthews and Gaines (which you and others refuse to acknowledge when you say they dumped them for picks) and two picks. So at least in terms of age that's a wash. They traded Seymour for, again, a younger WR and a pick. So same deal there.

 

They released J Will and Reilly, and the dogs howled that they were getting rid of a talented young RB and WR. Yet, no other teams picked them up, one was resigned to the practice squad, and it's possible J Will comes back.

 

Head scratchers to me are still Sammy (wouldn't have done that), J Will (although I'm thinking Banyard simply beat him out in a close call). And I still don't get Ducasse on the roster. But an actual analysis of the situation indicates your point is not valid. Only place it might be is J Will.

[SoTier]

Tons of posters I've never seen in my brief time posting here and many of them with cryptically derisive comments like "have you seen this roster," absolute fallacies like "who would the Patriots take from our team other than McCoy and up front insults like "put down the kool aid!" and I'm wondering if these posters will be around if this team wins.

 

I saw someone mentioned the defensive scheme not being a fit except for the fact that 3/4ths of our defensive front had 10 or more sacks 3 years ago when they last played in a 3-4 and our 4th guy is a natural 3-4 fit as opposed to 4-3... that goes for our MLB, too. And why would anyone think White is going to be expected to be Gilmore like when our CBs will be in zone coverage most of the time? Safety depth is obviously a concern but the 2 guys starting seem a helluva lot better than what we've had for a few years.

 

Frankly, I expect a step back from the offense but it also wouldn't shock me if an experienced play caller like Dennison is able to maximize the talent the team has and keep them above average.

 

The OL is probably going to continue to be great at run blocking and not great at pass blocking. I don't think they'll be much different than the last couple years, though Miller is another year more experienced and hopefully Dawkins gets in there at RT to start the season, otherwise Henderson can hopefully step in week 4 to shore up that spot. Still, not a ton of change on the OL and OLs usually do better the longer they play together.

 

Let's also remember that Dennison's offense is essentially Shanahan's in terms of the zone blocking/running. That's a scheme that's very RB friendly (look at Clinton Portis in Denver vs Washington... 5.5 YPA for 2 years in Denver and never higher than 4.3 in Washington), so watching Banyard, Tolbert or Jones (or the 3 of them combined) shouldn't be a huge surprise.

 

Saying our WR corps is one of the worst in the NFL might not be completely inaccurate, but it was last year as well considering we were trotting out Walt Powell, Brandon Tate and Justin Hunter as our WR corps at one point. Matthews has proven to be a solid NFL WR and we're gonna see what happens with Jones but he looks pretty promising even for non "kool aid drinkers."

 

Clay appears to be seriously involved in the design of the offense, which is great because he's still clearly talented. O'Leary looks like he's going to consistently be in there for 2 TE sets and looks like a fantastic safety valve. Thomas could be a gem if he develops.

 

QB has been talked to death. We're going to see what shakes out but whatever all of us think of Taylor I think universally we probably have more faith in Peterman as our backup if Taylor is benched or hurt than we did with Manuel.

 

 

And C'Mon man!!! How can people not be excited about our new HC?! Rex literally lost games because of horrible time management, micro managing and just absolute incompetence at points. McDermott won't be perfect, but you guys really don't think coaching changes can make all the difference in the world?

 

 

With the improvement I could see in our Defense and slight regression for our offense, I think our coach could factor into multiple wins alone.

 

I'm not calling playoffs. But I can't believe there are some who're so utterly confident this team wins 3 games or less! Just insane! I guess with that confidence these people won't be watching the games on Sundays?

 

Dennison may be an experienced play caller, but "maximizing the talent he has" doesn't seem to be something that he or McDermott care to do. If it was, the OL would still be using last year's blocking schemes and Vlad Ducasse wouldn't be on the team ... and Juan Castillo wouldn't be OL coach.

 

Oh, and let's get something straight here: the OL was not "great" at run blocking last season. It was decent but many of its deficiencies were masked by Shady's talent. Being better than most of the OLs the Bills have fielded in recent memory does not make it all that great. It also wasn't all that good in third down situations, so the Bills frequently tried to pass on thirds and short, which usually didn't work because the OL was poor at pass protection. Oh, yeah, and Tyrod's running -- much of it forced by poor pass pro -- significantly contributed to the Bills rushing total.

 

What, exactly, has McDermott done to merit excitement? In another post, you referenced Belichick. Well, sir, Belichick had a long resume before he ever joined the Patriots. He was the HC at Cleveland for several years and coached that team to playoff wins despite having rather limited resources, including a decent starting QB named Bernie Kosar who'll never be confused with Aaron Rodgers. He was the DC who designed the Giants' defense that won the Super Bowl over the much more talented Bills .. with a backup QB at the Giants' helm no less. He was considered one of the best defensive coaches in the league when NE hired him.

 

 

One of these years you'll be wrong... maybe this is the year

 

I think that's what we're all hoping for

 

That's what the suits in the second floor at OBD count on. They've got all their moves down pat. They keep shuffling the personnel decks, from GM to coaching staff to players and bringing in just enough star power to excite the fans into buying the "this might be the year" BS. After a disastrous 2017 campaign, the Bills will draft a QB in the first round of the 2018 draft and project him as "The Savior" ... just like they did Losman and Manuel ... and fans like you will lap it up.

 

 

"And C'Mon man!!! How can people not be excited about our new HC?!"

 

- Well he only talks in platitudes and cliches for one. Everything is a process. He is the classic Topper. He's done it all, seen it all, done everything, knows everything, has every answer.

 

- He is obsessed with Special Teams.

 

- Today he mentioned something like showing "what the city of Buffalo is about". What's that Coach? Workin' real hard, bringin' the ole lunchpail to Factory Job and putting in a 16 hour day at the press? Of course we need a team based on Toughness and running the ball because in December it snows. How does he know what the heck this city is about? He's never been here before and it shows with his obsession with getting as many Panthers on the team as possible.

 

How about a Coach who wants to live in 2017 and develop a top notch passing game? Instead of punts, a Coach that wants to go for it on 4th down and hang 40 on you? Nope we're going to get 3rd Down and manageable.

 

McDermott is joyless so far.

 

Stop and think about it -- you could be describing Dick Jauron. McDermott is a Jauron clone. He might have a tad more animation though.

 

 

 

 

Tanks simply don't exist in football, a sport where the players and coaches have salaries that aren't guaranteed. GMs sometimes do sell out the present for the future, and this is called a full or complete rebuild.

 

Which this is not. If it had been, Kyle Williams, Tyrod and Shady would be gone, Shady traded for good value. It's a rebuild. Not a complete rebuild but a rebuild. They've made it clear that they're building for the future as their priority while still not giving up this year.

 

As for BS, what BS? Are they saying they're headed for the Super Bowl this year? The playoffs? They aren't BSing. They want to primarily build a team while not entirely giving up on this year. But yeah, the stress is on the future and team building. As it should be.

 

Numerous fans have been buzzing about "tanking", but I agree with you that it doesn't really exist. My point was that Beane and McDermott really do believe the line they spout -- that they're trying to keep the team competitive now while building a winning team in the future. Well, I call that BS. It's the very same BS that Dick Jauron spouted -- when he actually said something -- a decade ago, as he dismantled the modestly talent team he inherited and turned it into a collection of second stringers and special teamers. Jauron believed in play-not-to-lose-by-too-much football, and McDermott appears to believe in the same style, especially on offense: run twice, throw a short pass, punt.

[rodneykm]

I think we are going to be a lot better than people are thinking we will be.

[Dorkington]

Doesn't matter what our talent or coaching staffs are... we're the Bills. It's a pretty sure thing we miss the playoffs at this point.

[oldmanfan]

MG and Gilmore come to mind. Should've at least kept one of them. No reason not to.

 

Watkins is the biggest one. Matthews isn't in the same class as Watkins(YES WHEN HEALTHY) and the chances of that 2nd round pick being as talented as Watkins are slim to none.

 

You can scream all you want that Darby and Gilmore don't fit the "zone scheme" McDermott runs, but when your playing QBs like Tom Brady, Rivers, Carr, Newton, etc you can't only run a zone. They will pick it apart.

Well, again let's look at the actual evidence. You say there was no reason to not keep either Gilmore or Gillislee. Well, yes there were. One is $$. To keep Gillislee would have been a lot of $$ for a backup RB. A lot. And in a league where it is relatively easy to find backup RBs that is certainly a consideration. As for Gilmore, they were trying to renegotiate all last season, and ultimately he did not want to resign and wanted to test the FA market. And got a huge offer from the Pats. So we lost a guy to free agency. Look around the league, it happens to every single team. and no matter, because we have a young guy taking his place. And this does not even take into account scheme.

 

Let's stop here and remind everyone what your thesis was: that the Bills dumped young guys for old guys. Well, with Gilmore it was exactly the opposite: a rookie for a vet.

 

Now as for Watkins, again your thesis is dumping young guys for old guys. That is what you said. Not my words, yours. And ultimately they made two trades in which they gave up a WR and CB for a WR and CB that have been in the league for the exact same amount of time if I am not mistaken.

 

But when this is pointed out, all of a sudden the argument changes and it is about talent and not age.

 

Just admit when you make these blanket statements about subbing out age for young talent, you're wrong. As I said above, you can make that argument accurately about J Will. Others, no.

[Hapless Bills Fan]

I'm sorry, I'm just a little amazed at all of this talk about how horrible we're going to be. I actually can't believe anyone thinks this team is going to be a 4-12 or worse with such confidence.

Amazing!

So, I ask, how have we regressed so much? Shall we take it position by position?

(....)

Coaching: It's everything. If it's good, I think we win a lot. If not we lose. I know that sounds simple, but we saw gross incompetence at that spot in the last couple years in particular. I think we see better.

 

 

I don't really make predictions, but I can't believe all the folks calling us a 4-12 team. Point to the schedule if you want I guess, but even that seems a little simple minded given the consistent inconsistency of teams in the NFL.

 

The night is darkest before the dawn, folks. Dawn comes in less than a week

 

First off, I am a Bills fan. GO BILLS! I would love to watch the sun rise over my beloved Bills. I would love to be "Hopeful" and not "Hapless" again.

 

My $0.02 on why many people think this isn't a playoff team is a factor you don't mention: overall level of talent. Bottom line at the NFL level, a team has to have enough talent to win. Coaching can help, scheme can help, but if they don't have the overall talent, players will be outmatched by the opposition. From a high level, there's really no two ways around it: the Bills have let higher talent level and talented young players go, and replaced them with lesser players. Gillislee, Gilmore, Watkins, Woods, and Darby all come to mind. I don't buy the "not a fit" thing. Winning coaches make their scheme fit the talent they have. They have to! if you can only use the subset of talent that "fits your scheme", you are at a perpetual disadvantage vs. GMs and coaches that can just pick the best available talent and make it work for them.

 

That said, where position by position assessments miss the boat is that a team wins as a team. Coaching is important, scheme is important, players putting out 100% effort in the scheme because they don't want to let their team down is ultimately important. Remember when the Bills signed Mario Williams and we had the best DL in the league on paper with Wannstache coaching? How'd that work out? We turned out to be a trifecta lose in the coaching, scheme, and buy-in (effort) departments. Then coaching and scheme changed, buy-in changed, and we were a #4 D with the same core guys.

 

Which is why my personal attitude is "wait and see". McWrestler and Dennison are both 'dark horses'. The question with Dennison is how much of his success is as Kubiak's mouthpiece and how much is his own ability. The question with McWrestler is what happened to the Panthers last year - did he have a fluky success, or is he the deal? When the Panthers lost the Superbowl against a QB who could barely get onto the field without one of those wheeled walker things, it didn't look too good on him. OTOH, if Dennison is more than Kubiak's mouthpiece, it did look good on him. The guy it looked best on - Wade Phillips - is not on this team. Are Dennison and McWrestler able to scheme successfully against top coaches and get it done? Over the long haul, will they be "player must fit my scheme" guys or will they be able to use top talent that falls to them?

 

I don't understand Bean and McWrestler's vision for the team. Clearly they needed to change the culture. Sometimes the fastest way to change the culture is to change the people. If you've got talented guys there who are not willing to buy in and give it 100%, up to a point you are better off with "lesser men with shovels" who are willing to give their all for the team. On the other hand, the best leader is the one who can get the talented people to buy in and give it 100%. That may be a chore in today's NFL where guys have big guaranteed contracts or are playing to preserve their bodies and land that big contract. The Pats** are famous for letting talented guys who are actually losing it, walk before paying them big money and replacing them with players who prove able to grow into their shoes.

 

I don't understand the rush to praise or the rush to blame.

Edited September 5, 2017 by Hapless Bills Fan

[oldmanfan]

 

They dumped young talent.

 

They dumped young talent in favor of worse, average talent. Matthews is an average JAG. Watkins is a top 10 WR when healthy.

 

And they could've easily kept MG had they tendered him a 2nd round pick FOR AN EXTRA MILLION. They weren't that cap strapped and considering the teams bread and butter is the run game, it would've been smart to keep a guy who averaged the most YPC, tops in TDs, and GREAT in short yardage situations around for chump change.

 

Just a few very head scratching moves.[/quot

 

You can't keep your arguments straight, can you? When proven wrong you just change what you want to talk about.

 

Are you a politician by any chance?

[oldmanfan]

ame="oldmanfan" post="4514180" timestamp="1504622915"]

 

 

 

What did I say that was wrong bud?

 

They got worse. For reasons I'm not sure of nor do I agree with and I'd be surprised if they work out in their favor.

Your original thesis was they traded or got rid of young players for old players. I listed what happened to show that other thanJ Will that wasn't true. Then you changed your argument to talent which, other than Sammy, was shown to be questionable at best. Now you're saying they're worse which, with no games played yet, is simply unknown.

 

ShallI go on? Maybe we should discuss Josh Rosen.

[Billsmovinup]

Last year the defense was running the wrong scheme for the players they had and the offense was running the right scheme for the players they had. This year its the opposite and with a tougher schedule it will result in a 5-11 season. Why they couldnt just leave the offense alone and just fix the defense is beyond me.

[row_33]

I'm sure i'm not putting $1,000 on the Bills to make the playoffs.

[oldmanfan]

My thesis? I'm not writing a paper here guy.

 

The roster IS worse from last year. And Self inflicted.

 

My thesis? I'm not writing a paper here guy.

 

The roster IS worse from last year. And Self inflicted.

Your opinion with no data.

[SoTier]

MG and Gilmore come to mind. Should've at least kept one of them. No reason not to.

 

Watkins is the biggest one. Matthews isn't in the same class as Watkins(YES WHEN HEALTHY) and the chances of that 2nd round pick being as talented as Watkins are slim to none.

 

You can scream all you want that Darby and Gilmore don't fit the "zone scheme" McDermott runs, but when your playing QBs like Tom Brady, Rivers, Carr, Newton, etc you can't only run a zone. They will pick it apart.

^^^

Well, again let's look at the actual evidence. You say there was no reason to not keep either Gilmore or Gillislee. Well, yes there were. One is $$. To keep Gillislee would have been a lot of $$ for a backup RB. A lot. And in a league where it is relatively easy to find backup RBs that is certainly a consideration. As for Gilmore, they were trying to renegotiate all last season, and ultimately he did not want to resign and wanted to test the FA market. And got a huge offer from the Pats. So we lost a guy to free agency. Look around the league, it happens to every single team. and no matter, because we have a young guy taking his place. And this does not even take into account scheme.

 

Let's stop here and remind everyone what your thesis was: that the Bills dumped young guys for old guys. Well, with Gilmore it was exactly the opposite: a rookie for a vet.

 

Now as for Watkins, again your thesis is dumping young guys for old guys. That is what you said. Not my words, yours. And ultimately they made two trades in which they gave up a WR and CB for a WR and CB that have been in the league for the exact same amount of time if I am not mistaken.

 

But when this is pointed out, all of a sudden the argument changes and it is about talent and not age.

 

Just admit when you make these blanket statements about subbing out age for young talent, you're wrong. As I said above, you can make that argument accurately about J Will. Others, no.

 

How many DBs have the Bills drafted in the first or second round in the last 20 years who were allowed to walk away in free agency after their rookie contracts despite the fact that they were clearly excellent players, several with Pro Bowl appearances on their resumes? How many times did the Bills then turn around and draft a replacement for said DB in the first or second round of the next draft? Allowing Gilmore to walk and then drafting White to replace him is simply the latest iteration of one of the Bills' favorite moves over the length of the playoff drought. It doesn't make the team better; it simply saves real $$$ for the organization. A first round rookie gets paid a whole lot less than a proven vet with Pro Bowl honors. Meanwhile, that first rounder could have been used to draft another OLer or DLer to groom to replace the aging vets on both lines!!! Guys like Kyle Williams and Richie Incognito will both be on the wrong side of 35 by next season. Several other members of both lines are on the wrong side of 30, too. Then there's the possibility of Vlad Ducasse pretending to play RG ...

 

The Bills have similarly used first/second round picks on rent-a-RB for 20 years, too, beginning with Antoine Smith drafted in 1997, Travis Henry in 2001, Willis McGahee in 2003, Marshawn Lynch in 2007, and CJ Spiller in 2010. All of them had some success after they were traded/allowed to walk in FA, and Smith and Lynch have Super Bowl rings.

 

Fans who have paid attention to the Bills over the years see the current regime doing the very same things that the failed regimes of the past have done. We recognize it for what it is: the way the Bills organization has operated for nearly two decades and we don't expect any more success from the new regime than any of the previous ones had.

[oldmanfan]

^^^

 

How many DBs have the Bills drafted in the first or second round in the last 20 years who were allowed to walk away in free agency after their rookie contracts despite the fact that they were clearly excellent players, several with Pro Bowl appearances on their resumes? How many times did the Bills then turn around and draft a replacement for said DB in the first or second round of the next draft? Allowing Gilmore to walk and then drafting White to replace him is simply the latest iteration of one of the Bills' favorite moves over the length of the playoff drought. It doesn't make the team better; it simply saves real $$$ for the organization. A first round rookie gets paid a whole lot less than a proven vet with Pro Bowl honors. Meanwhile, that first rounder could have been used to draft another OLer or DLer to groom to replace the aging vets on both lines!!! Guys like Kyle Williams and Richie Incognito will both be on the wrong side of 35 by next season. Several other members of both lines are on the wrong side of 30, too. Then there's the possibility of Vlad Ducasse pretending to play RG ...

 

The Bills have similarly used first/second round picks on rent-a-RB for 20 years, too, beginning with Antoine Smith drafted in 1997, Travis Henry in 2001, Willis McGahee in 2003, Marshawn Lynch in 2007, and CJ Spiller in 2010. All of them had some success after they were traded/allowed to walk in FA, and Smith and Lynch have Super Bowl rings.

 

Fans who have paid attention to the Bills over the years see the current regime doing the very same things that the failed regimes of the past have done. We recognize it for what it is: the way the Bills organization has operated for nearly two decades and we don't expect any more success from the new regime than any of the previous ones had.

I don't care what regimes did in the past. I don't suspect many folks in New England compare Belichick to Billy Sullivan. I care what the new HC and GM do. And you can give up on your stuff about how it's all a conspiracy for the Pegulas to save money. Any cursory look at the decisions they've made, from spending 1.4 billion to buy the team to upgrading facilities to being willing to eat coaches and GM contracts when they make a wrong decision show that is absurd.

 

There is a thing called free agency. Players get to test their value in free agency. They negotiated with Gilmore all year, but he chose to go the FA route. and the Pats gave him a boatload of money, more than we thought he was worth. Woods got a boatload, more than a 2nd WR guy s worth. Teams and GMs decide what priorities to put on certain positions with respect to value and so on. I will be interested in where Beane and McD want to spend their money as time goes on.

[GunnerBill]

I will be interested in where Beane and McD want to spend their money as time goes on.

 

QB (when they find one);

Front 7 on defense;

Center;

TE;

RB;

 

That is my guess based on some actual research into where Carolina's money has been going. Expect a cheap secondary, cheap line around a vet center and cheap receivers.

[Call_Of_Ktulu]

Tougher schedule, offense that doesn't fit the players we have, weak receivers with no one to draw safeties away from playing near the line of scrimmage, and a ton of roster turnover as well as new coaches and scheme on defense with a suspect secondary/linebacking corps.

I have this team between 5-7 wins.

 

I agree 100% with this, everything in this post is what I was about to type. I would say there is a very slim chance at a playoff push that would involve Peterman playing good as a rookie, the O-Line staying healthy, the defense getting progressively better every week and Shady having a monster season. Other than that I'm guessing we win 3-5 games this year.

[bisonbrigade]

The answer is talent.

[cba fan]

I'm sorry, I'm just a little amazed at all of this talk about how horrible we're going to be. I actually can't believe anyone thinks this team is going to be a 4-12 or worse with such confidence.

 

Amazing!

 

So, I ask, how have we regressed so much? Shall we take it position by position?

 

QB: I am aware this is the big controversial position. But are we worse with a 3rd year Tyrod Taylor, hope promising young Rookie, and a vet who at least has knowledge in the system than a 2nd year Taylor, EJ Manuel and Cardale Jones? I guess the offensive system is the answer to this question so we're going to see soon enough

 

RB: McCoy is a year older but it doesn't seem like he's lost a step. Who knows about our backups but these zone blocking schemes are designed for RBs to thrive, aren't they? Tolbert's better than Felton. Doesn't seem much worse, if worse.

 

WR: Obvious question mark. But let's be honest about our WRs last year: Sammy and Woods missed 11 combined games last year. That's tied with a few teams and the only fewer than San Diego in terms of number one and number two wide receiver's missing games. We had street wide receivers. Right now our WR core seems worse on paper, but if Matthews can stay healthy and Jones can keep looking like he has in the preseason I don't know how much of a step down our WR core will really be. Like the QB I think it's another wait and see. Powell might be a welcome addition after week 4.

 

TEs: Better, no? Seems there will be a focus on getting them the ball and O'Leary has another year and looks good and Thomas looks like a promising prospect.

 

OL: Worse to begin the season with questions surrounding Glenn and RG and RT, but I suspect both will be solidified relatively quickly. Just gotta hope Glenn stays healthy.

 

K: BETTER!!!

 

Punter: Same

 

Coverage: I honestly have no clue

 

DL: Sure did operate a lot better under a 4-3 than a 3-4, didn't it? Yeah there are questions but Kyle doesn't seem to be slowing down and it sounds like Hughes and Lawson will be really good in this D. Marcel is so freaking talented let's just hope he "buys in." Yarborough looks like a promising backup among others.

 

LBs: Not a clue honestly but sounds like Brown will be a lot better. Lorax was a gem last year and if he's nearly as good it just means good things.

 

CB: Brand new defense so can we maybe wait to freak out? White looks great. Gaines is a strong zone CB and that's what we're running. Same with Wright. Josh Norman thrived in this system that ultimately made him a star... not nearly as good now in a new system in Washington, is he?

 

S: Top heavy and not deep but I think Hyde and Poyer are better than what we had last year.

 

 

Coaching: It's everything. If it's good, I think we win a lot. If not we lose. I know that sounds simple, but we saw gross incompetence at that spot in the last couple years in particular. I think we see better.

 

 

I don't really make predictions, but I can't believe all the folks calling us a 4-12 team. Point to the schedule if you want I guess, but even that seems a little simple minded given the consistent inconsistency of teams in the NFL.

 

The night is darkest before the dawn, folks. Dawn comes in less than a week

​Why? You ask Why?

 

Because no team who replaced 41 players from the previous year (53 and 10 practice squad) many being less talented then the ones they replaced, has ever sniffed the playoffs.

 

Toss in new coach and FO and those teams seldom make playoffs either.

[GunnerBill]

Pretty similar to what we have now.

 

Much rather pay a WR then a RB. Without question. And LT then a center(of Eric Woods caliber)

So would I. I'd also much rather pay a top corner than a top MLB.

[transplantbillsfan]

​Why? You ask Why?

 

Because no team who replaced 41 players from the previous year (53 and 10 practice squad) many being less talented then the ones they replaced, has ever sniffed the playoffs.

 

Toss in new coach and FO and those teams seldom make playoffs either.

Did you actually research this or are you pulling this out of your butt?

[SoTier]

Did you actually research this or are you pulling this out of your butt?

 

Since you're so interested, prove him wrong by providing an example of a team that did swap out 41 of 63 players as well as hiring on a new coaching staff and FO. I can think of one that might fit that criteria but I'm not going to waste my time figuring out how much the roster changed. I'll give you a hint: it was an AFC team and happened within the last decade.

Edited September 5, 2017 by SoTier

[transplantbillsfan]

 

Since you're so interested, prove him wrong by providing an example of a team that did swap out 41 of 63 players as well as hiring on a new coaching staff and FO. I can think of one that might fit that criteria but I'm not going to waste my time figuring out how much the roster changed. I'll give you a hint: it was an AFC team and happened within the last decade.

He made the claim. Why would I have to research the claim he made? How does that make any sense in the context of an argument?

[reddogblitz]

You just largely described Bill Bellicheck.

Persona in a coach might not be a good thing, ya know. Remember the last guy?

And Marv. Read MarV's book. Why do you think he signed Steve Tasker off of the waiver wire? Because he was a good WR?