Why are you so sure we aren't a playoff team?

[Boatdrinks]

16 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

That's a really weird way to root for this. playing out.

 

To me, it's most logical to root for losses for these teams.  The Chargers play the Jets in NY... which is no gimme... and then a divisional game against the Raiders.

 

The Titans losing yesterday was best for us knowing the likelihood of the Bills, Ravens, Titans and Chargers somehow ALL ending up 9-7 is pretty far-fetched.

There is nothing weird about it, if you checked the remaining schedules after KC defeated LAC. It actually appeared to be the most likely scenario to play out. Assuming the Bills win at MIA to get to 9-7 of course. The 49ers were the last middling team on the Titans schedule. A win there put them at 9 wins. With the Rams and JAX remaining, a 9-7 finish was very probable for TEN. The Chargers have only the Jets and OAK left, and the Raiders blew their chances last night. 9-7 looks pretty likely for LAC. That would have meant beat MIA and you're in for the Bills. They now must hope the Jets or Raiders pull an upset. Forget about the Ravens, as they will claim one WC spot. Their schedule is a breeze. It was looking like a 50-50 shot for the Bills: they just had to find a way to win in MIA. That's no longer enough, they need a fluke win by a crap team. Unless you think the Titans can hang with the Rams, but a close look at the Titans wins would say they get crushed by the high flying offense of LA. 

[nedboy7]

2 hours ago, T-Bomb said:

 

I will if you whine about Trump for me

 

Whine?  You need to grow up and buy a brain 

[transplantbillsfan]

25 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

It's a headache for sure.

All we need is to finish 9-7 and either the Chargers don't.  They need to lose one of their next two.

 

Or the Ravens lose out which is very unlikely.  Or win beat the Pats which by history, is unlikely.

Or the Titans beat the Rams which seems very unlikely.

 

Tons of things can happen.  The Chiefs aren't exactly models of consistency.  They could lose their last 2 games and the Chargers could take the AFC West, eliminating them from WC contention.

 

There's just a lot.

 

Root for 2 straight wins and 10-6 and we're pretty much locked into a playoff spot.

 

I know a W in NE is unlikely, but I'm praying for a Christmas Miracle... would make my holiday that much better.

 

As far as 9-7 goes, I'd rather root for this and that (Chargers losing one of their last 2 OR Chiefs losing their last 2 AND Titans losing week 17 to the Jags OR Ravens losing one more) rather than this and that and that (Chargers winning 2 AND Titans losing to the Jags but not the Rams AND Ravens losing one more).

 

Lots of permutations involved here.  I hope the Bills just simplify things and win their next 2 

Edited December 18, 2017 by transplantbillsfan

[Fadingpain]

To the OP:  There are a whole bunch of teams in both conferences who will NOT make the playoffs who could be more or less described by your take on the Bills.

 

Secondly, how many NFL fans around the country, who are NOT Bills fans, are lining up with their money to bet that the Bills make the playoffs?

 

Try to distance your love of the team from your analysis of the team.

 

 

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

3 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

To the OP:  There are a whole bunch of teams in both conferences who will NOT make the playoffs who could be more or less described by your take on the Bills.

 

Secondly, how many NFL fans around the country, who are NOT Bills fans, are lining up with their money to bet that the Bills make the playoffs?

 

Try to distance your love of the team from your analysis of the team.

 

 

Xanax.

 

No, really.

 

[Boatdrinks]

4 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Tons of things can happen.  The Chiefs aren't exactly models of consistency.  They could lose their last 2 games and the Chargers could take the AFC West, eliminating them from WC contention.

 

There's just a lot.

 

Root for 2 straight wins and 10-6 and we're pretty much locked into a playoff spot.

 

I know a W in NE is unlikely, but I'm praying for a Christmas Miracle... would make my holiday that much better.

 

As far as 9-7 goes, I'd rather root for this and that (Chargers losing one of their last 2 OR Chiefs losing their last 2 AND Titans losing week 17 to the Jags OR Ravens losing one more) rather than this and that and that (Chargers winning 2 AND Titans losing to the Jags but not the Rams AND Ravens losing one more).

 

Lots of permutations involved here.  I hope the Bills just simplify things and win their next 2 

Rooting for this or that doesn't make the scenarios more likely to occur . The Bills most likely path is now gone, that was a 3 way tie with LAC and TEN. They may still sneak in , but the chances are now very low . Even with a win at MIA, I'd guess it's around 10%. 

[SWATeam]

1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

Rooting for this or that doesn't make the scenarios more likely to occur . The Bills most likely path is now gone, that was a 3 way tie with LAC and TEN. They may still sneak in , but the chances are now very low . Even with a win at MIA, I'd guess it's around 10%. 

How is that gone?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, SWATeam said:

How is that gone?

 

He's being ridiculous and saying the Chargers are going to win out.

 

 

[Boatdrinks]

Just now, SWATeam said:

How is that gone?

It's mathematically possible. It's also extremely unlikely. It was very likely if TEN had hung on vs SF yesterday . 

[transplantbillsfan]

15 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

There is nothing weird about it, if you checked the remaining schedules after KC defeated LAC. It actually appeared to be the most likely scenario to play out. Assuming the Bills win at MIA to get to 9-7 of course. The 49ers were the last middling team on the Titans schedule. A win there put them at 9 wins. With the Rams and JAX remaining, a 9-7 finish was very probable for TEN. The Chargers have only the Jets and OAK left, and the Raiders blew their chances last night. 9-7 looks pretty likely for LAC. That would have meant beat MIA and you're in for the Bills. They now must hope the Jets or Raiders pull an upset. Forget about the Ravens, as they will claim one WC spot. Their schedule is a breeze. It was looking like a 50-50 shot for the Bills: they just had to find a way to win in MIA. That's no longer enough, they need a fluke win by a crap team. Unless you think the Titans can hang with the Rams, but a close look at the Titans wins would say they get crushed by the high flying offense of LA. 

 

It's the NFL and I just think you're relying on too many permutations that you assumed were most likely scenarios.

 

 

 

The Chargers could very easily lose in New Jersey next week or at home against the Raiders to close out the season.

 

OR

 

The Chiefs could potentially lose both of their remaining games.

 

[SWATeam]

Just now, joesixpack said:

 

He's being ridiculous and saying the Chargers are going to win out.

 

 

If the Chargers win out they are 9-7, correct?  One more win and the titans are 9-7 as well?

1 minute ago, Boatdrinks said:

It's mathematically possible. It's also extremely unlikely. It was very likely if TEN had hung on vs SF yesterday . 

You are making a lot of assumptions and passing them off as fact

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

1 minute ago, SWATeam said:

If the Chargers win out they are 9-7, correct?  One more win and the titans are 9-7 as well?

 

Correct on the chargers. if the titans go 1-1 they're 9-7.

 

I'm calling it now: chargers lose in Jersey this week.

 

Stone cold, lead pipe lock take it to the bank and pay the mortgage.

 

Edited December 18, 2017 by joesixpack

[Boatdrinks]

Just now, transplantbillsfan said:

 

It's the NFL and I just think you're relying on too many permutations that you assumed were most likely scenarios.

 

 

 

The Chargers could very easily lose in New Jersey next week or at home against the Raiders to close out the season.

 

OR

 

The Chiefs could potentially lose both of their remaining games.

 

I think those aren't likely scenarios. LAC are better and will be favored in both games. Chiefs seem to have rediscovered their offense , and they already beat SD so it wasn't that surprising. I'm just going by who I would pick to win those games, and who will likely be favored in those games when figuring probabilities. I have little confidence in the Jets , Raiders , Colts, and especially the Bengals who seem to already have the bus fired up and ready to roll the last couple weeks. 

[transplantbillsfan]

10 minutes ago, Fadingpain said:

To the OP:  There are a whole bunch of teams in both conferences who will NOT make the playoffs who could be more or less described by your take on the Bills.

 

Secondly, how many NFL fans around the country, who are NOT Bills fans, are lining up with their money to bet that the Bills make the playoffs?

 

Try to distance your love of the team from your analysis of the team.

 

Ummm... what?

 

Are you arguing just to argue? 

 

Or were you one of the ones who thought we wouldn't win more than 4 games and bitter that you were wrong?

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, joesixpack said:

 

Correct on the chargers. if the titans go 1-1 they're 9-7.

 

I'm calling it now: chargers lose in Jersey this week.

 

Stone cold, lead pipe lock take it to the bank and pay the mortgage.

 

IF LAC lose and it's a BIG if, then Bills have a 50/50 shot with just a win at MIA separating them from breaking the drought. I'd love it, but it seems a pipe dream right now. 

[transplantbillsfan]

9 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

Rooting for this or that doesn't make the scenarios more likely to occur . The Bills most likely path is now gone, that was a 3 way tie with LAC and TEN. They may still sneak in , but the chances are now very low . Even with a win at MIA, I'd guess it's around 10%. 

 

I respectfully disagree.

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, Boatdrinks said:

IF LAC lose and it's a BIG if, then Bills have a 50/50 shot with just a win at MIA separating them from breaking the drought. I'd love it, but it seems a pipe dream right now. 

 

IT'S NOT A BIG IF

 

The chargers are WAY over-rated by you. I'm telling you.

 

[SWATeam]

Boatdrinks should make a killing on a two week parlay.  He has all of the results locked up

[Boatdrinks]

1 minute ago, joesixpack said:

 

IT'S NOT A BIG IF

 

The chargers are WAY over-rated by you. I'm telling you.

 

I hope you're right, I really do. They won seven straight before falling to the Chiefs for the second time this season . Sometimes a team just has your number and matches up well. Anyway, they were considered a hot team by many pundits going into that game and I don't think they've cooled off all that much. I'd feel better about the game the way McCown was playing this season. I can't see the Jets winning a game with Petty right now. 

1 minute ago, SWATeam said:

Boatdrinks should make a killing on a two week parlay.  He has all of the results locked up

Nah... I don't bet. Mostly because I know if I bet that outcome it's a stone cold lock NOT to happen! I should always play the Pats in games I want them to lose, but just can't bring myself to root for that team... ever. 

[transplantbillsfan]

6 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

It's mathematically possible. It's also extremely unlikely. It was very likely if TEN had hung on vs SF yesterday . 

 

No.  You're playing a mathematical game and looking at schedules and penciling in Ws and Ls...  one of the entire points I started this thread initially was because I think doing that is just foolish.

 

It's the NFL and absolutely anything can happen.  I'd love that phrase to transpire into 2 straight Ws for Buffalo, but knowing that we're unlikely to see that just given our history, we root for Ls in any given situation for the other teams competing for the Wildcard with us.  Being happy that a team also competing for the Wildcard wins and keeps pace with us 3 games before the season ends, I would say, is just wrong.

 

If these permutations occur, we can do that in week 17, but first and foremost I'm rooting for a Buffalo W this weekend, followed by an L by the Ravens, Titans, AND Chargers.  I'm sure all 3 don't lose, but I'd also bet 1 or 2 of them lose.

 

 

[Boatdrinks]

2 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

No.  You're playing a mathematical game and looking at schedules and penciling in Ws and Ls...  one of the entire points I started this thread initially was because I think doing that is just foolish.

 

It's the NFL and absolutely anything can happen.  I'd love that phrase to transpire into 2 straight Ws for Buffalo, but knowing that we're unlikely to see that just given our history, we root for Ls in any given situation for the other teams competing for the Wildcard with us.  Being happy that a team also competing for the Wildcard wins and keeps pace with us 3 games before the season ends, I would say, is just wrong.

 

If these permutations occur, we can do that in week 17, but first and foremost I'm rooting for a Buffalo W this weekend, followed by an L by the Ravens, Titans, AND Chargers.  I'm sure all 3 don't lose, but I'd also bet 1 or 2 of them lose.

 

 

The Bills would still be helped either way with a LAC loss or BAL loss either way, EVEN IF the Titans had won yesterday. That much was a given. Don't confuse being happy with a team keeping pace with simply expecting it to happen. The scenario I was expecting and hoping for was centered only around TEN. It would justvhave given the Bills another way in, if LAC and BAL do not slip up in weeks 16 or 17. Nothing wrong with it at all. 

[transplantbillsfan]

25 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

IF LAC lose and it's a BIG if, then Bills have a 50/50 shot with just a win at MIA separating them from breaking the drought. I'd love it, but it seems a pipe dream right now. 

 

Why in the world is it such a big if that the Chargers lose one road game on a West to East road game or one divisional game to close out the year?

 

Personally, I think if you had to choose between EITHER the Chargers winning their next 2 OR not, you put money down on not.

26 minutes ago, SWATeam said:

Boatdrinks should make a killing on a two week parlay.  He has all of the results locked up

 

This is what amazes me... you don't go into games hoping for MORE outcomes... you hope for LESS.

[Scott7975]

9 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They will sweep this one.  I'm not sure how they have won 6 games this season.  They were the worst coached team we have played.  The Jets are doing far more with far less.  

Its 4D chess bro.  They came in with nothing and lost on purpose in hopes the Bills would think their game plan would work again in two weeks.  That way Miami can finish the season on a high note.  Don't you know how 4D chess works?

[Scott7975]

3 hours ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

No one knows how well or typical TT would have played in the Chargers game.   Sure, we can blame Nate but there is no guarantee Tyrod would have won a game on the road on the west coast. 

 

He likely wouldn't have won the game.  I think it would have been much closer but SD was putting the heat on.  That's not how the media works though.  Bills fan see it as evaluation, at least ones that hate Tyrod enough they just don't want to see him anymore... everyone else see it as not putting your best player on the field.  Regardless of whether Tyrod would have won the game or not, a coaches job is to put the best players on the field to give his team the best chance to win.

 

At the end of the day, the Bills will still be alive in week 17.  That has only happened one other time in the drought I think.

Edited December 18, 2017 by Scott7975

[BuffaloHokie13]

1 hour ago, joesixpack said:

Correct on the chargers. if the titans go 1-1 they're 9-7.

 

I'm calling it now: chargers lose in Jersey this week.

 

Stone cold, lead pipe lock take it to the bank and pay the mortgage.

Bryce Petty's still under center for them, right?

[Pine Barrens Mafia]

Just now, BuffaloHokie13 said:

Bryce Petty's still under center for them, right?

 

They gave the saints fits.

[T-Bomb]

1 hour ago, nedboy7 said:

 

Whine?  You need to grow up and buy a brain 

 

Sure thing champ!

 

I'll go right out and do that just for you.

[Bills13131313]

Guys, of course we want a chargers loss this weekend, and a ravens loss, etc. But for the people that continue to say we want the titans to lose, that is not true. We want them to win this week to hopefully have the 3 team tiebreaker just incase. They have to lose next week anyway so they can't lose this week and then win next week.

[Boatdrinks]

5 minutes ago, Bills13131313 said:

Guys, of course we want a chargers loss this weekend, and a ravens loss, etc. But for the people that continue to say we want the titans to lose, that is not true. We want them to win this week to hopefully have the 3 team tiebreaker just incase. They have to lose next week anyway so they can't lose this week and then win next week.

This is true. I will be rooting against the Rams this week ( which I normally don't do.. lol ) , but wanted TEN to win yesterday at SF. We no longer want TEN to lose this game. It was a given that TEN winning week 17 vs JAX would doom the Bills, so we still want the Jags in that one. 

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

No, no one knows.  We can't say for sure that Taylor wouldn't have thrown 5 interceptions in one half and we wouldn't have gone down 30 at the half because of those 5 interceptions because Taylor didn't start and I'm unable to see into parallel universes.  But I think anyone with any level of sanity would acknowledge nothing like that would have happened in the 1st half if Taylor started.

 

Maybe we don't win.

 

Maybe we do.

Your Taylorism is showing.  

 

2 road wins out of 5 for TT this season.  

Facing West coast opponents 0-2 last  season (maybe more but I’m too lazy to look so he gets the BoD.)  

 

The odds were not in his favor.  

 

Name a west coast game Taylor had won in 3 years.   

 

 

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

Tons of things can happen.  The Chiefs aren't exactly models of consistency.

KC at home plays Miami.  

 

If I read the story correctly a win clinches the AFCW for KC.  

 

Pray for LAC to lose 

[HappyDays]

 

Let's put that argument to bed

 

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, ShadyBillsFan said:

Your Taylorism is showing.  

 

2 road wins out of 5 for TT this season.  

Facing West coast opponents 0-2 last  season (maybe more but I’m too lazy to look so he gets the BoD.)  

 

The odds were not in his favor.  

 

Name a west coast game Taylor had won in 3 years.    

 

Taylorism?

 

I'm sorry, it doesn't have to be Taylorism to see that benching Taylor for Peterman was clearly a mistake.

 

 

As for west coast games Taylor has won... 2016 @ LA Rams.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

7 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Taylorism?

 

I'm sorry, it doesn't have to be Taylorism to see that benching Taylor for Peterman was clearly a mistake.

 

 

As for west coast games Taylor has won... 2016 @ LA Rams.

 

 the 4-12 rams?

 

his typical game 12/23 124 yds 2 td 0 int

Edited December 19, 2017 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[transplantbillsfan]

Just now, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

 

 the 4-12 rams?

 

Yep. He asked for a west coast game Taylor has won in 3 years. 

 

He's only played 3 of them and he's 1-2 in those games, with one of those 2 losses being a primetime MNF road game that most would label as one of Taylor's 2 best performances.

 

It was just a poorly thought post that was trying to insinuate that Taylor's history somehow proves that going to the west coast somehow made it that much more impossible for him to get a W.

[DaBillsFanSince1973]

10 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yep. He asked for a west coast game Taylor has won in 3 years. 

 

He's only played 3 of them and he's 1-2 in those games, with one of those 2 losses being a primetime MNF road game that most would label as one of Taylor's 2 best performances.

 

It was just a poorly thought post that was trying to insinuate that Taylor's history somehow proves that going to the west coast somehow made it that much more impossible for him to get a W.

 

 

not impossible, but not likely. chargers were pumped up for that game regardless who was under center. they may of mauled taylor and it could of been another jets/no type game added to his resume.

 

 he is inconsistent and one can only hope he can some how have a game like the first half yesterday for four quarters in foxboro? I do blame the OC for the second half so it doesn't all fall on his shoulders.

Edited December 19, 2017 by DaBillsFanSince1973

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

51 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Taylorism?

 

I'm sorry, it doesn't have to be Taylorism to see that benching Taylor for Peterman was clearly a mistake.

 

 

As for west coast games Taylor has won... 2016 @ LA Rams.

Mistake or not changes nothing WRT Taylor also laying an egg in LA.  

 

And just how bad were the LA Rams.  

Less than 5 wins? 

The 2016 Rams won 1 game after they played the Bills FTR 4 total.  

 

I think the the correct answer is Zero wins against fair to good teams.   

 

Christ the backup Chargers QB outplayed TT !!!!

 

94.2 to 91.8. 

 

 

38 minutes ago, DaBillsFanSince1973 said:

he is inconsistent and one can only hope he can some how have a game like the first half yesterday for four quarters in foxboro

Hater.      

Edited December 19, 2017 by ShadyBillsFan

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Let's put that argument to bed

 

I'm not sure what 538 is using to come up with that percentage, but I don't buy it. It seems to be giving too much weight to the fact that beating SF would have put the Titans at 9 wins. Their last two games are vs Rams and Jaguars . They'll probably be dogs in both contests. It also seems to be giving the Bills a realistic shot at reaching 10-6 , but fans know that the Bills  almost never beat the Pats with Brady. If every team has a fifty fifty chance at a win, then sure. But we know that isn't true in the real world. 

[HappyDays]

16 minutes ago, Boatdrinks said:

I'm not sure what 538 is using to come up with that percentage, but I don't buy it.

 

Their full methodology is here:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2017-nfl-predictions-work/

 

How this works: This forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after every game. Our model uses Elo ratings (a measure of strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent) to calculate teams’ chances of winning their regular-season games and advancing to and through the playoffs.

 

They have New England as the #1 team and we're 16th so our playoff odds have very little to do with beating the Patriots.

 

You can actually mess around with their odds by changing results of other games.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nfl-predictions/

 

We normally have a 36% chance. A loss to the Pats drops that to 29% whereas a win puts it at 71%. Their original projection is assuming we lose to the Patriots most of the time.

 

And we actually are rooting for the Titans against the Rams weirdly enough. If they win our chance goes up to 39%. So their model can fully take into account everything you're trying to take into account by saying the 49ers win was bad for us.

[Boatdrinks]

8 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Their full methodology is here:

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-our-2017-nfl-predictions-work/

 

 

 

 

They have New England as the #1 team and we're 16th so our playoff odds have very little to do with beating the Patriots.

 

You can actually mess around with their odds by changing results of other games.

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-nfl-predictions/

 

We normally have a 36% chance. A loss to the Pats drops that to 29% whereas a win puts it at 71%. Their original projection is assuming we lose to the Patriots most of the time.

 

And we actually are rooting for the Titans against the Rams weirdly enough. If they win our chance goes up to 39%. So their model can fully take into account everything you're trying to take into account by saying the 49ers win was bad for us.

I'm well aware that the Titans loss yesterday means that we want them to beat the Rams this week. Still , I disagree with the 538 assessment as it seems one door for the Bills to get in has closed a bit in terms of probability . In fact , just saw a post by 26 where an AP writer wrote "good news for Titans win 2 and you're probably in. Bad news games are vs Rams and Jags ". Seems many folks don't like the Titans chances against those opponents. 538 likes the Titans more than I do. I still don't see what avenue to the playoffs improved by the Titans losing. It does keep them at 8 wins. Maybe 538 isn't that high on the Chargers either. 

Edited December 19, 2017 by Boatdrinks

[SlimShady'sSpaceForce]

I’ve got 2 words.  

 

Tyrod Taylor