CodeMonkey Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 (edited) The Bills are off this week (thank God). But here is what the models are saying about the rest of the season.FiveThirtyEight (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/) predicts a 7-9 record for the Bills this season with a 17% (down from 29%) chance of making the playoffs and a less than 1% (down from 1%) chance of winning it all. Amos (http://trevorbischoff.com/nfl-2015-week-8-predictions/) predicts a record of 8-8 for the Bills this season. SportsClubStats (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/AFCEast/Buffalo.html) predicts a record of 7-9 for the Bills this season with a 17.7% (down from 27.4%) chance of making the playoffs. The Senator Model: 16 and 4 baby ... How the models are doing for the season so far: Edited October 31, 2015 by CodeMonkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorquemada Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The Bills are off this week (thank God). But here is what the models are saying about the rest of the season. FiveThirtyEight (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/) predicts a 7-9 record for the Bills this season with a 17% (down from 29%) chance of making the playoffs and a less than 1% (down from 1%) chance of winning it all. Amos (http://trevorbischoff.com/nfl-2015-week-8-predictions/) No Data Yet. SportsClubStats (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/AFCEast/Buffalo.html) predicts a record of 7-9 for the Bills this season with a 17.7% (down from 27.4%) chance of making the playoffs. Seems wildly optimistic. 538 gives us probability of beating Miami, Houston, Washington, Dallas (!), and the finale against the Jets. Lets work backwards.... the last game, against the Jets. I can see the Jets contending for a wildcard spot, and us playing for the difference between 6-10 and 7-9. Although familiar territory for the Bills, I can't imagine the Jets rolling over and the Bills showing up for that. Dallas? That's just crazy talk and why statistical models don't always reflect reality. Dallas will run for 500 yards against the Bills, Romo or no Romo. Washington? They're inconsistent but seem to play hard each week, at least in the bits I've seen, so I guess that's probably our best chance for a win. Houston - maybe? Watt can pretty much single handedly own the Bills O-Line. Maybe he'll be out for that game and the Bills can win on a last second field goal Miami - ha fat chance. Miami has gone from a laughing stock softie team to a contender seemingly overnight. Amazing what a hard nose coach can do. Too bad we're stuck with the Big Dumb Face at HC Even if the Bills beat Washington and Houston, we're looking at 5-11, lol what a year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted October 26, 2015 Author Share Posted October 26, 2015 (edited) Seems wildly optimistic. 538 gives us probability of beating Miami, Houston, Washington, Dallas (!), and the finale against the Jets. Lets work backwards.... the last game, against the Jets. I can see the Jets contending for a wildcard spot, and us playing for the difference between 6-10 and 7-9. Although familiar territory for the Bills, I can't imagine the Jets rolling over and the Bills showing up for that. Dallas? That's just crazy talk and why statistical models don't always reflect reality. Dallas will run for 500 yards against the Bills, Romo or no Romo. Washington? They're inconsistent but seem to play hard each week, at least in the bits I've seen, so I guess that's probably our best chance for a win. Houston - maybe? Watt can pretty much single handedly own the Bills O-Line. Maybe he'll be out for that game and the Bills can win on a last second field goal Miami - ha fat chance. Miami has gone from a laughing stock softie team to a contender seemingly overnight. Amazing what a hard nose coach can do. Too bad we're stuck with the Big Dumb Face at HC Even if the Bills beat Washington and Houston, we're looking at 5-11, lol what a year Models by their very nature are a slave to the data they are given and slow to react to a big change. For example, the last few games for Dallas were without Romo. Therefore the offensive numbers were lacking. The models don't know Romo was out, they just see the lower level of performance. Edited October 26, 2015 by CodeMonkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorquemada Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Models by their very nature are a slave to the data they are given and slow to react to a big change. For example, the last few games for Dallas were without Romo. Therefore the offensive number were lacking. The models don't know Romo was out, they just see the poor performance. yeah that's what I'm saying. I think it's safe to remove Dallas from the potential win category. This team does not have what it takes to beat a playoff team, and I absolutely defy anyone to say otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted October 26, 2015 Author Share Posted October 26, 2015 yeah that's what I'm saying. I think it's safe to remove Dallas from the potential win category. This team does not have what it takes to beat a playoff team, and I absolutely defy anyone to say otherwise There are many here that will say otherwise. Just scan some of the other threads. For example, there are some in the weekly "the refs cost us the game" thread that blame the loss solely (it seems anyway) on the one bad PI call near the end of the game. Some just gotta Billieve:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 16 and 4 baby... GO BILLLSSS!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted October 26, 2015 Author Share Posted October 26, 2015 (edited) 16 and 4 baby... GO BILLLSSS!!!! Oh yes, I should have listed "The Senator Model" as well! Original post corrected! Edited October 26, 2015 by CodeMonkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorquemada Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 There are many here that will say otherwise. Just scan some of the other threads. For example, there are some in the weekly "the refs cost us the game" thread that blame the loss solely (it seems anyway) on the one bad PI call near the end of the game. Some just gotta Billieve:) Right, I'm reading the other thread where Lunatic P. Crazy is suggesting that we start EJ against Miami because it'll be way different this time. I'm all for collective delusion (I'm Buffalo through and through) but enough is enough. We're turning into the Anabaptists at Munster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
May Day 10 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Models predicting football games would be a great Sunday morning program Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Bills Fan Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The models don't take into account that the Bills seem on the verge of quitting on Rex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 yeah that's what I'm saying. I think it's safe to remove Dallas from the potential win category. This team does not have what it takes to beat a playoff team, and I absolutely defy anyone to say otherwise well, would they be favorites against dallas? maybe, maybe not - long way away. is it impossible for this team to beat any team? thats silly talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kipers Hair Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Looking at the schedule - sadly I only see two wins left.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seasons1992 Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Looking at the schedule - sadly I only see two wins left.... As long as one of them is Houston when I drive 6 hours to go to that game, I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The Bills will finish the season with an 8-1 record (no doubt at least 7-2). This bye comes at the perfect time to reset this team's collective head straight and for everyone to get healthy again. I just don't buy into all of the doomed and negative stuff this time around. I see the first part of the season as them getting all of the bad stuff out of their system before they hit their stride and become the playoff bound team we all thought they were going to be. They won that Jags game and the refs screwed them out of it. I'm already done hearing about how much EJ sucks or how bad Rex is or Whaley or the defense. They won that game. They will have two whole weeks to stew over it and take out their anger on their division opponents coming up on the schedule. This team showed me they have fight in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hondo in seattle Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The models are built off history. The Bills recent history includes a new coaching staffing that's still adapting and a ton of injuries. So here are the events I hope make the models wrong... * Rex figure out how to maximize the productivity of the D by adapting the scheme to better fit the talents of the players. * We get healthy. * TT develops into a Top Ten QB. * With Kromer back, the OL starts to gel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorquemada Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 The Bills will finish the season with an 8-1 record (no doubt at least 7-2). This bye comes at the perfect time to reset this team's collective head straight and for everyone to get healthy again. I just don't buy into all of the doomed and negative stuff this time around. I see the first part of the season as them getting all of the bad stuff out of their system before they hit their stride and become the playoff bound team we all thought they were going to be. They won that Jags game and the refs screwed them out of it. I'm already done hearing about how much EJ sucks or how bad Rex is or Whaley or the defense. They won that game. They will have two whole weeks to stew over it and take out their anger on their division opponents coming up on the schedule. This team showed me they have fight in them. Are you for real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1billsfan Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Are you for real? I think the Jags game will turn out to be the turning point game that forces the whole team to come together, get healthy and become the team we all thought they were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 (edited) Seems wildly optimistic. 538 gives us probability of beating Miami, Houston, Washington, Dallas (!), and the finale against the Jets. Lets work backwards.... the last game, against the Jets. I can see the Jets contending for a wildcard spot, and us playing for the difference between 6-10 and 7-9. Although familiar territory for the Bills, I can't imagine the Jets rolling over and the Bills showing up for that. Dallas? That's just crazy talk and why statistical models don't always reflect reality. Dallas will run for 500 yards against the Bills, Romo or no Romo. Washington? They're inconsistent but seem to play hard each week, at least in the bits I've seen, so I guess that's probably our best chance for a win. Houston - maybe? Watt can pretty much single handedly own the Bills O-Line. Maybe he'll be out for that game and the Bills can win on a last second field goal Miami - ha fat chance. Miami has gone from a laughing stock softie team to a contender seemingly overnight. Amazing what a hard nose coach can do. Too bad we're stuck with the Big Dumb Face at HC Even if the Bills beat Washington and Houston, we're looking at 5-11, lol what a year Disagree with you. We're built to play with anybody. We haven't been healthy, and have dug ourselves into some early holes. We have a bye week at a pretty good time. Time to get healthy, and start correcting the errors. Not saying were going to win out or anything, but i don't see why the bills can't hover around .500. The difference between 7-9 and 9-7 isnt THAT big. Edited October 26, 2015 by dneveu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beerball Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Damn, I thought this thread included Gisele pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pine Barrens Mafia Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 I think the Jags game will turn out to be the turning point game that forces the whole team to come together, get healthy and become the team we all thought they were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorquemada Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Damn, I thought this thread included Gisele pics. Gisele @ Buffalo Bills. Gisels favored by 17 points Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted October 26, 2015 Author Share Posted October 26, 2015 (edited) Damn, I thought this thread included Gisele pics. Tom has ruined her forever. However just this one of someone better. Edited October 26, 2015 by CodeMonkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fadingpain Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Right, I'm reading the other thread where Lunatic P. Crazy is suggesting that we start EJ against Miami because it'll be way different this time. I'm all for collective delusion (I'm Buffalo through and through) but enough is enough. We're turning into the Anabaptists at Munster. Holy cow! Here's a link to a wonderful Dan Carlin "Hardcore History" Podcast (for free) on this precise piece of history. Highly recommended. http://www.dancarlin.com/product/hardcore-history-48-prophets-of-doom/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorquemada Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Holy cow! Here's a link to a wonderful Dan Carlin "Hardcore History" Podcast (for free) on this precise piece of history. Highly recommended. http://www.dancarlin.com/product/hardcore-history-48-prophets-of-doom/ Yup, that's exactly where I got this from... his descriptions of the people as they slowly starved and lost their minds (perhaps because of ergotism!) sounds a lot like this place after 16 years of repeated beatings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaninATL Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Disagree with you. We're built to play with anybody. We haven't been healthy, and have dug ourselves into some early holes. We have a bye week at a pretty good time. Time to get healthy, and start correcting the errors. Not saying were going to win out or anything, but i don't see why the bills can't hover around .500. The difference between 7-9 and 9-7 isnt THAT big. this isn't training camp; the errors and penalties are a reflection of Rex as a poor HC: terrible self-discipline, playing with too much emotion/playing dumb, substandard tackling, giving up too much cushion to WRs at the LOS, giving up critical 1st down conversions on 3rd & long, terrible ST penalties, etc etc. I could go on, but you get the picture. Rex had to be called out after 6 games by his DL for his crappy scheme which has been neutering the talent of the front 4. I hate to say it but all these things may not be correctable over a bye week. It's a cultural problem which seems to be a hallmark of Rex's teams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterpan Posted October 26, 2015 Share Posted October 26, 2015 Seems wildly optimistic. 538 gives us probability of beating Miami, Houston, Washington, Dallas (!), and the finale against the Jets. Lets work backwards.... the last game, against the Jets. I can see the Jets contending for a wildcard spot, and us playing for the difference between 6-10 and 7-9. Although familiar territory for the Bills, I can't imagine the Jets rolling over and the Bills showing up for that. Dallas? That's just crazy talk and why statistical models don't always reflect reality. Dallas will run for 500 yards against the Bills, Romo or no Romo. Washington? They're inconsistent but seem to play hard each week, at least in the bits I've seen, so I guess that's probably our best chance for a win. Houston - maybe? Watt can pretty much single handedly own the Bills O-Line. Maybe he'll be out for that game and the Bills can win on a last second field goal Miami - ha fat chance. Miami has gone from a laughing stock softie team to a contender seemingly overnight. Amazing what a hard nose coach can do. Too bad we're stuck with the Big Dumb Face at HC Even if the Bills beat Washington and Houston, we're looking at 5-11, lol what a year If I were an optimist, I would point out that with a health Tyrod, Watkins, McCoy, and Harvin, our O was pretty darn good. Why couldn't our team turn it around once heeled? (FWIW I dont think we will turn it around, I think our main problem is our D and OL. Neither of which I see being fixed this year.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nitro Posted October 27, 2015 Share Posted October 27, 2015 The Bills will finish the season with an 8-1 record (no doubt at least 7-2). This bye comes at the perfect time to reset this team's collective head straight and for everyone to get healthy again. I just don't buy into all of the doomed and negative stuff this time around. I see the first part of the season as them getting all of the bad stuff out of their system before they hit their stride and become the playoff bound team we all thought they were going to be. They won that Jags game and the refs screwed them out of it. I'm already done hearing about how much EJ sucks or how bad Rex is or Whaley or the defense. They won that game. They will have two whole weeks to stew over it and take out their anger on their division opponents coming up on the schedule. This team showed me they have fight in them. I appreciate your support and optimistic view on the Bills. They are too banged up, disorganized (look at individual break downs) and under coached. IF everything goes right, they MIGHT go 9-7. Realistic view is 7-9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted October 28, 2015 Author Share Posted October 28, 2015 Added Amos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dorquemada Posted October 28, 2015 Share Posted October 28, 2015 The Bills are off this week (thank God). But here is what the models are saying about the rest of the season. FiveThirtyEight (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/) predicts a 7-9 record for the Bills this season with a 17% (down from 29%) chance of making the playoffs and a less than 1% (down from 1%) chance of winning it all. Amos (http://trevorbischoff.com/nfl-2015-week-8-predictions/) predicts a record of 8-8 for the Bills this season. SportsClubStats (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/AFCEast/Buffalo.html) predicts a record of 7-9 for the Bills this season with a 17.7% (down from 27.4%) chance of making the playoffs. The Senator Model: 16 and 4 baby ... I'd like to add... The Models predict the TSW Poster Dorquemada will be doing something better on Sunday afternoons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CodeMonkey Posted October 31, 2015 Author Share Posted October 31, 2015 (edited) Added current model standings graph. Elo is over 70% for the season, not bad (even after picking the Bills last Sunday )! Edited October 31, 2015 by CodeMonkey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yungmack Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 What in the performance of the Bills so far makes anyone believe they will win another game this season? Using the Blind Squirrel rule, I suppose they will inexplicably stumble into a win, maybe even two. But weighing the mess Rex has created against the schedule, would anyone really be surprised if they go 0-9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KOKBILLS Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 The Bills are off this week (thank God). But here is what the models are saying about the rest of the season. FiveThirtyEight (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2015-nfl-predictions/) predicts a 7-9 record for the Bills this season with a 17% (down from 29%) chance of making the playoffs and a less than 1% (down from 1%) chance of winning it all. Amos (http://trevorbischoff.com/nfl-2015-week-8-predictions/) predicts a record of 8-8 for the Bills this season. SportsClubStats (http://www.sportsclubstats.com/NFL/AFC/AFCEast/Buffalo.html) predicts a record of 7-9 for the Bills this season with a 17.7% (down from 27.4%) chance of making the playoffs. The Senator Model: 16 and 4 baby ... How the models are doing for the season so far: Looks about right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Talley56 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Seems wildly optimistic. 538 gives us probability of beating Miami, Houston, Washington, Dallas (!), and the finale against the Jets. Lets work backwards.... the last game, against the Jets. I can see the Jets contending for a wildcard spot, and us playing for the difference between 6-10 and 7-9. Although familiar territory for the Bills, I can't imagine the Jets rolling over and the Bills showing up for that. Dallas? That's just crazy talk and why statistical models don't always reflect reality. Dallas will run for 500 yards against the Bills, Romo or no Romo. This seems wildly pessimistic. They will run over us even if they don't have Romo? They haven't won a game without him and even with him they should have lost week 1. But I will say I think we are a 7-9 to 8-8 team. May depend on when we get TT back and if we can get other key players healthy down the stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike in Horseheads Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 What in the performance of the Bills so far makes anyone believe they will win another game this season? Using the Blind Squirrel rule, I suppose they will inexplicably stumble into a win, maybe even two. But weighing the mess Rex has created against the schedule, would anyone really be surprised if they go 0-9? Yes I would be. I can see them being anywhere from 7-9 to 10-6. The only game I count as a sure loss is NE (unless Brady doesn't play for some unknown reason). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
3rdand12 Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 http://www.giselebundchen.com.br/ this isn't training camp; the errors and penalties are a reflection of Rex as a poor HC: terrible self-discipline, playing with too much emotion/playing dumb, substandard tackling, giving up too much cushion to WRs at the LOS, giving up critical 1st down conversions on 3rd & long, terrible ST penalties, etc etc. I could go on, but you get the picture. Rex had to be called out after 6 games by his DL for his crappy scheme which has been neutering the talent of the front 4. I hate to say it but all these things may not be correctable over a bye week. It's a cultural problem which seems to be a hallmark of Rex's teams. you are probably correct there is too much to overcome. But i have to bet Bills come out swinging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 (edited) Damn, I thought this thread included Gisele pics.Sorry but Gisele is simply not that hot. Edited October 31, 2015 by metzelaars_lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
What a Tuel Posted October 31, 2015 Share Posted October 31, 2015 Are you for real? Are you for real? Have some hope man. There is no prize for calling the season the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2020 Our Year For Sure Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 What in the performance of the Bills so far makes anyone believe they will win another game this season? Using the Blind Squirrel rule, I suppose they will inexplicably stumble into a win, maybe even two. But weighing the mess Rex has created against the schedule, would anyone really be surprised if they go 0-9? We're still 3-2 with Tyrod. Why are you expecting 0-9? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJ (not THAT RJ) Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 We're still 3-2 with Tyrod. Why are you expecting 0-9? Because it's that time of year for people to beat their chests and try to top each other with the most depressing and negative predictions in order to pretend that makes them "realists." You know, November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aristocrat Posted November 1, 2015 Share Posted November 1, 2015 With tt we have a fighting chance at the season but we need percy and sammy back. Leodis is a huge help as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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