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Wild Card Race and Intel on Teams in the Hunt


BuffaloBaumer

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1) beat the Texans

2) New England* actually serves a purpose for good instead of evil, and beats the Jets

3) beat the Jets

4) beat Philly whose team quit on its coach and has packed it in.

5) beat Cassel led Dallas at home

 

 

It all comes down to Washington. That's the toughest game left IF they can get by Houston. But 10-6 is right freaking there!

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@Gil_Brandt: Pay attention to tiebreakers in AFC South. Could have tie for first place w/ one team being left out of playoffs. Has that ever happened?

 

Yes. In 1982 or so, the Cowboys played Washington in the final game of the season at Texas Stadiu,. Washington entered with a one game lead. Cowboys won on some Roger Staubach to Tony Hill late game heroics and Cowboys won tie breaker and Washington went fishing. It was great. I was at that game.

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Week 13 - Teams the Bills need to lose (bold)

Captain Obvious says Houston @ Buffalo

KC @ Raiders

NYETS @ NY Giants

JAX @ TENN

Colts @ PIT

 

Basically all the Home teams need a Win with the exception of the Steelers

 

And who wouldn't love to see Philly Win @ the Putz?

Edited by BillsFan-4-Ever
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AFC Wild Card update

With Sunday’s action complete here’s a look at the AFC playoff picture following Pittsburgh’s win over Indianapolis.

 

Pittsburgh improved to 7-5 keeping them ahead of Buffalo at 6-6. Meanwhile Indianapolis fell to 6-6, but remains the AFC South division leader over Houston (6-6) by virtue of their head-to-head win over the Texans. They also have a superior division record and conference record.

 

AFC Wild Card race

5 – Kansas City – 7-5 – conference record 6-2

6 – New York Jets- 7-5 – conference record 5-4

7 – Pittsburgh – 7-5 – conference record 4-4

8 – Buffalo – 6-6 – conference record – 6-5

9 – Houston – 6-6 – conference record – 4-4

10 – Oakland – 5-7 – conference record – 5-4

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KC is pretty much in. Their schedule is about as easy as it gets: Chargers, Ravens, Browns and Raiders. I can't realistically imagine them going worse than 3-1 over that stretch, They will have the head-to-he and and conference tiebreakers over the Bills.

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So with 4 weeks to go the AFC wildcard picture looks a little clearer.......

 

Houston and the AFC South

Houston at 6-6 with New England and Indy in their next two is in trouble. They have the tie break over the Jets but are now behind the tie break against the Bills and the Chiefs meaning that realistically to get in they need to either win out..... getting to 10-6 which would probably win them the AFC South - they might win the South at 9-7 which if they do knocks Indy who are behind the tiebreaker against Buffalo, the Jets and the Steelers out. Basically last night's game all but guaranteed there will be no wildcard from the South.

 

The Chiefs and the AFC West

Kansas City are now 7-5 and have the tiebreak on three of the 4 rivals.... with wins over the Bills, the Steelers and the Texans. They have San Diego, Cleveland, Baltimore and Oakland remaining on the schedule.... a combined 14-34 on the season so far. They are all but a lock for the 5th seed.

 

Bills, Jets, Steelers and the 6th seed

So it is a three horse race. The Jets are currently in pole position at 7-5, the Steelers are just behind them also at 7-5 and the Bills are a game back at 6-6. The Jets are currently ahead on conference record - the Steelers have 4 in conference wins and the Jets have 5.

 

Obviously if one of them wins out they are in. If they both win out, however, that will even up the conference record and then the Steelers will have the tiebreak based on results in common games.

 

If neither win out but both drop one game and the Bills win out...... well this is where it gets interesting.

 

- In a 3 way tie at 10-6 the Jets would be eliminated (because the Bills would have beaten them twice)

- The Steelers would then get in ahead of the Bills on results in common games IF one of their 2 wins is against Cincy.

- If the game that the Steelers lose is against Cincy then the Bills would win the tie based on strength of victory.

 

In most situations where there is a 2 way tie at 10-6 between Pitt and NYJ the Steelers get in.

 

So what about ties at 9-7?

 

The most likely scenario of ties at 9-7 actually suits the Bills. That is the Steelers losing to Cincy and Denver; the Jets losing to New England and Buffalo and Buffalo dropping one of their 3 NFC East games. In that scenario the Bills beat the Steelers on in conference record. The only scenario I can find where Pittsburgh has the 9-7 tie over the Bills would need them to beat Cincy and Denver and lose to both Baltimore and Cleveland. Which ain't happening.

 

However, any scenario where the Bills tie the Steelers at 9-7 with a loss to the Jets probably means the Jets are in at 10-6..... in the unlikely event that isn't the case and the Jets have lost either to the Titans or the Cowboys then the Bills would beat out the Jets on results in common games and the Steelers on strength of victory.

 

Essentially folks it comes down to this..... winning out gives us the best shot but finishing 10-6 and not getting in remains a real possibility. 9-7 ties across the board actually suit us.

 

The Philly game is big for the Bills this week but I'd argue it isn't the BIGGEST game of the week for our hopes..... we NEED Cincy over Pittsburgh much, much more. If the Steelers win that then it is a very difficult road for us.

Edited by GunnerBill
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I know Pitt looked awesome last night, but if Cincy can beat them next week this would start to clear our largest obstacle. Cincy can clinch their division with a win, so lots on the line for them too. Go Bengals and Bills!

it is a huge game. Pitt dig themselves a hole with early afc losses so they are behind in tie breakers. If they win this game it is huge for them.
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Once again that Chiefs game killed us (not to mention the Jags). We need to win out, plain and simple, and hope that the steelers lose one, and a conference game at that.

 

We can hope but I'm not that optimistic. This team doesn't look like it can run off 5 wins in a row. But it would be so fun for it to come down to the last game of the year.

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The Steelers finish with the Bengals, Broncos, Ravens and Browns. Two tough games - including at the Bengals on a short week - and two easy ones. We should know if the Bills have a shot to pass them by the 20th. If they go 3-1 their Conf record will be the same as the Bills if the Bills win out. The Bills would pull ahead in that tiebreaker if the Steelers go 2-2 and the Bills 3-1 including a win over the Jets. No h2h obviously.

Edited by BarleyNY
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The Steelers finish with the Bengals, Broncos, Ravens and Browns. Two tough games - including at the Bengals on a short week - and two easy ones. We should know if the Bills have a shot to pass them by the 20th. With any loss their Conf record will be the same as the Bills. No h2h obviously.

and the common opponent tiebreaker hinges on result of bengals game. They lost the first one but if they win the second, they get that tiebreaker I believe. The rest - KC, NE, Colts - were the same result for both.
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and the common opponent tiebreaker hinges on result of bengals game. They lost the first one but if they win the second, they get that tiebreaker I believe. The rest - KC, NE, Colts - were the same result for both.

I modifyied my post to include this situation after I read your previous one. Yes, the Bills would pull ahead in the Conf tiebreaker if they go 3-1, including beating the Jets, and Pitt goes 2-2.

 

Edit: I'm not worrying about common opponents yet. In the WC tiebreaker it is applicable only after the division record tiebreaker.

Edited by BarleyNY
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Houston/Indy are obviously in the mix, but the Bills have the h2h on both and they play each other in two weeks. I just don't see a WC team coming out of the AFCS. The Bills have plenty to do and plenty to worry about, but AFCS teams aren't on the first pages of those lists.

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Once again that Chiefs game killed us (not to mention the Jags). We need to win out, plain and simple, and hope that the steelers lose one, and a conference game at that.

 

We can hope but I'm not that optimistic. This team doesn't look like it can run off 5 wins in a row. But it would be so fun for it to come down to the last game of the year.

 

The Chiefs game didn't kill us any more than any other loss really. The Jags is the one that looms large on the schedule as a team we are obviously better than and found a way to lose to. I still think the Giants game hurts as well.

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The Chiefs game didn't kill us any more than any other loss really. The Jags is the one that looms large on the schedule as a team we are obviously better than and found a way to lose to. I still think the Giants game hurts as well.

I'd swap any win (save Jets, Houston) with the KC loss. That tiebreaker is a killer.

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I'd swap any win (save Jets, Houston) with the KC loss. That tiebreaker is a killer.

 

It really isn't that big. KC are winning out. They will be in regardless. The win would have given us an extra win which would help obviously as would a win in any of our other losses and I suppose the tiebreak with them might have given us a better shot at the 5th spot..... but Houston was always the bigger game. KC was always headed for a wildcard even if we had beaten them last week.

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