st pete gogolak Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Or to put it another way, will we actually use our analytics department? Other than when the Bills played the Jets, I didn't follow the Jets much and I honestly don't know how aggressive Ryan was in 4th and short situations. I wasn't a Marrone fan but the thing that I hated about him the most was the ultra-conservative decisions on fourth and short. It was like he was in a time warp from 1955 and field position was the only possible consideration, even when playing high powered offenses like the Pats. I'm not an analytics expert but my understanding is that the stats are overwhelming when it is 4th and short in your opponents territory you go for it. In addition to the pure stats approach, I believe that habitually going for it (1) gives your team a mindset that you're out to win the game (the Tuesday Morning QB Greg Easterbrook theory) and (2) gives you more options on play calling if you know you are going to go for it on fourth and short, meaning you can run the ball on 3rd and 3 or 3rd and 4. I would love for the Bills to be the honest to God first NFL team to employ Moneyball analysis to football. Someone's going to do it eventually. Might as well be us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalScotts Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 what's missing is the result of the punts......the strategy worked often, punt deep in opponents end 3 and out follows ball back where we were roughly with no risk of "going" for it. As per usual when we lose WGR looks anywhere but where the problem is instead chosing for what makes good radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berndogg Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 Googling "Rex Ryan 4th down" was actually the first thing I did when Rex Ryan was hired because Gailey and Marrone's conservativeness has driven me to drink (more) heavily over the past few years and I truly believe it has cost us wins. The search results weren't particularly promising http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/25/upshot/how-rex-ryan-can-save-his-job-and-help-reinvent-the-nfl.html?_r=0&abt=0002&abg=1. I know that Gailey never got it because he's old and out of touch and Marrone is too stubborn/arrogant to listen to any info that conflicts with his saintly opinions. Really hope Rex sees the light. As the article says most coaches are still way too conservative and a coach that uses the analytics in making his decisions would have a huge competitive advantage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 when was the last time the Bills tried a fake punt? > 5 years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zow2 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 If you think REx is going for it on every 4th and 1 situation in opponents territory, people will be very disappointed. I'd like to see it more often, sure...but it's not an automatic and depending on the game situation, punting and pinning the other team deep is not a terrible option. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoSaint Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 If you think REx is going for it on every 4th and 1 situation in opponents territory, people will be very disappointed. I'd like to see it more often, sure...but it's not an automatic and depending on the game situation, punting and pinning the other team deep is not a terrible option. the expected outcome, even if you happen to successfully pin the other team, points towards risking the 4th down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metzelaars_lives Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 (edited) what's missing is the result of the punts......the strategy worked often, punt deep in opponents end 3 and out follows ball back where we were roughly with no risk of "going" for it. As per usual when we lose WGR looks anywhere but where the problem is instead chosing for what makes good radio. Yes. Exactly what you just described happened in Denver this season. We got the ball right back where we decided not to go for it on 4th and 2 down by two scores with five minutes left- except it was two minutes later and we burned all three of our time outs, forcing us to attempt an onside kick when we did score. What drove me nuts about Marrone was when he punted in situations like that where we probably weren't going to win anyway. Same thing in the game at Miami- down by two scores with, what, 8 minutes left? the expected outcome, even if you happen to successfully pin the other team, points towards risking the 4th down Well stated. Edited January 14, 2015 by metzelaars_lives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prissythecat Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 If you have a turnstile offensive line and aging or ineffective RBs with a defense that regularly can stop an opponent, you may want to lean towards punting despite what stats say. On the other hand, if you had a stout offensive line like Dallas with a Demarco Murray with a questionable defense, you may lean towards going for it on 4th and 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctk232 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 I'd much rather see an offense that converts on 3rd down and scores more than 3 points in the redzone than an aggressive 4th down strategy. Invariably, there will be 4th down situations, sure, and we will go for it on some. But we'll be more aggressive overall, that much was evident from the presser. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
34-78-83 Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 what's missing is the result of the punts......the strategy worked often, punt deep in opponents end 3 and out follows ball back where we were roughly with no risk of "going" for it. As per usual when we lose WGR looks anywhere but where the problem is instead chosing for what makes good radio. This ^^^^ The "proven" analytics is not actually proven... It's results are looked at in a vacuum and are not NECESSARILY valid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Caveman Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 (edited) Screw that, let's make it on third down. Edited January 14, 2015 by Captain Caveman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
All_Pro_Bills Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 (edited) Yes. Exactly what you just described happened in Denver this season. We got the ball right back where we decided not to go for it on 4th and 2 down by two scores with five minutes left- except it was two minutes later and we burned all three of our time outs, forcing us to attempt an onside kick when we did score. What drove me nuts about Marrone was when he punted in situations like that where we probably weren't going to win anyway. Same thing in the game at Miami- down by two scores with, what, 8 minutes left? Well stated. Exactly. In those situations you have to weigh the benefits of playing for field position vs. the cost of losing time on the game clock by surrendering the ball to the opponent by punting. Sure your defense might pull off a 3 and out but the cost might be using all your timeouts or around 3 minutes on the game clock. And when you get the ball back, unless you get a great return or a blocked punt, your offense will be starting at no better field position then you faced on the 4th and 1. Net being you're faced with the exact same problem with less time to solve it. In the Thursday night Miami game when Marrone decided to punt given the score, time remaining, the situation, after the punt I turned off the game and went to bed. I figured if the HC wasn't interested in trying to win the game then why stay up any later than I had to at that point. I wonder how many of the players felt the same way? Edited January 14, 2015 by All_Pro_Bills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 "We will not build our offensive game plans around our punter, I'll tell you that." - Rex Ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rivermont Mike Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 During his presser, he said (paraphrasing) that they would try a fake punt on 4th and 13 with three minutes left in the game and up by three. Watch the rebroadcast and you'll hear him say it. So the answer to the OP is "oh HELL no." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
berndogg Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 This ^^^^ The "proven" analytics is not actually proven... It's results are looked at in a vacuum and are not NECESSARILY valid. The "analytics don't apply to this particular situation" fallacy is what leads even coaches that are aware of the numbers to ignore them and go with conventional wisdom. The fact is there are statistics that account for the specific teams and their average yards per play gained and allowed in 3rd/4th and short situations. Those stats still favored going for it in all of the controversial 4th down situations (KC, Mia, Den, etc) where Moron punted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted January 14, 2015 Share Posted January 14, 2015 "We will not build our offensive game plans around our punter, I'll tell you that." - Rex Ryan +100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrecksRyan Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I can tell you guys all you want to know about Rex. Ask away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I can tell you guys all you want to know about Rex. Ask away. 1) favorite ice cream flavor 2) favorite Chinese takeout item 3) favorite ghost hunting TV show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrecksRyan Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I can tell you guys all you want to know about Rex. Ask away. 1) favorite ice cream flavor 2) favorite Chinese takeout item 3) favorite ghost hunting TV show Touché! Of course, I meant as in how crappy a head coach he is. He's a great motivator and a near genius with defensive schemes, but he always forgets that there are three aspects to a football team, and the next game management mistake he learns from will be his first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Touché! Of course, I meant as in how crappy a head coach he is. He's a great motivator and a near genius with defensive schemes, but he always forgets that there are three aspects to a football team, and the next game management mistake he learns from will be his first. Bummer... I was hoping for those answers. I already know he's a great football mind! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Or to put it another way, will we actually use our analytics department? Other than when the Bills played the Jets, I didn't follow the Jets much and I honestly don't know how aggressive Ryan was in 4th and short situations. I wasn't a Marrone fan but the thing that I hated about him the most was the ultra-conservative decisions on fourth and short. It was like he was in a time warp from 1955 and field position was the only possible consideration, even when playing high powered offenses like the Pats. I'm not an analytics expert but my understanding is that the stats are overwhelming when it is 4th and short in your opponents territory you go for it. In addition to the pure stats approach, I believe that habitually going for it (1) gives your team a mindset that you're out to win the game (the Tuesday Morning QB Greg Easterbrook theory) and (2) gives you more options on play calling if you know you are going to go for it on fourth and short, meaning you can run the ball on 3rd and 3 or 3rd and 4. I would love for the Bills to be the honest to God first NFL team to employ Moneyball analysis to football. Someone's going to do it eventually. Might as well be us. no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrecksRyan Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Bummer... I was hoping for those answers.I already know he's a great football mind!He's a great defensive mind. Don't confuse that with being a great football mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 He's a great defensive mind. Don't confuse that with being a great football mind.Serious question: Did you join this community solely to conduct a crusade against Rex Ryan? It sure looks that way. Do you consider this crusade to be a public service? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
reddogblitz Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Without looking at the statistical analysis of Rex going for it inside the 40, I'm going to go out on a limb and say he probably doesn't very often. Rex likes to ground and pound and play GREAT defense. It's how he won with Sanchez at QB. If you have 4th and 1 on the 40, chances are you're going to put them inside the 10. Then you might get a turnover or even just stop them and they punt back to us. Fits his MO as far as what I know about him. I don't get this whole 4th and 1 litmus test thing. Depends on the situation. You gotta evaluate it on things like what's the score? How much time is left? How is my defense playing? What kind of offense does the team you're playing have? Do I honestly think my offense can get this today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Real Buffalo Joe Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Without looking at the statistical analysis of Rex going for it inside the 40, I'm going to go out on a limb and say he probably doesn't very often. Rex likes to ground and pound and play GREAT defense. It's how he won with Sanchez at QB. If you have 4th and 1 on the 40, chances are you're going to put them inside the 10. Then you might get a turnover or even just stop them and they punt back to us. Fits his MO as far as what I know about him. I don't get this whole 4th and 1 litmus test thing. Depends on the situation. You gotta evaluate it on things like what's the score? How much time is left? How is my defense playing? What kind of offense does the team you're playing have? Do I honestly think my offense can get this today? Because certain previous HC's punted way too much on 4th and 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrecksRyan Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Did you join this community solely to conduct a crusade against Rex Ryan? It sure looks that way. Do you consider this crusade to be a public service?Not as a crusade, but certainly as a source of information for you guys if you want it. He left NY with millions on his side thinking he got the short end of the stick. It's pretty difficult to be charismatic enough to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Real Buffalo Joe Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Not as a crusade, but certainly as a source of information for you guys if you want it. He left NY with millions on his side thinking he got the short end of the stick. It's pretty difficult to be charismatic enough to do that. Doug, there's no need to do this. You'll find a Job somewhere, I promise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Not as a crusade, but certainly as a source of information for you guys if you want it. He left NY with millions on his side thinking he got the short end of the stick. It's pretty difficult to be charismatic enough to do that.So far, you have provided zero "information"; just naked pronouncements backed up by, as far as I can tell, nothing. We all know what his record in NY was and what his perceived strengths and weaknesses are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I just wanted to know if Rex was a Ghost Hunters fan or a Ghost Adventures fan.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrecksRyan Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Perfect article to explain what I mean. Worth the read. http://nypost.com/2015/01/14/hey-buffalo-rex-will-deliver-more-laughs-than-wins/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheFunPolice Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Sure... Meanwhile if he went to Atlanta they would be saying how amazing it is and what a great hire it was... That's ok. Rex is the PERFECT guy to lead the underdogs who nobody but the fans believes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Doug, there's no need to do this. You'll find a Job somewhere, I promise. No he won't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mannc Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Perfect article to explain what I mean. Worth the read. http://nypost.com/2015/01/14/hey-buffalo-rex-will-deliver-more-laughs-than-wins/ Pretty uninformative article. Just a fish-hack spewing his personal opinions without much to back it up. Nothing to make me think Rex isn't a great coach who was caught in a bad situation his last few years in New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WrecksRyan Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Perfect article to explain what I mean. Worth the read. http://nypost.com/2015/01/14/hey-buffalo-rex-will-deliver-more-laughs-than-wins/ Pretty uninformative article. Just a fish-hack spewing his personal opinions without much to back it up. Nothing to make me think Rex isn't a great coach who was caught in a bad situation his last few years in New York. Haha I'm telling you as a fan, that article is SPOT ON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webster Guy Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 there was one time marrone did it this year and it paid off, but i hate punting on 4th and short anytime. oregon did it on 4th and 4 down 2 scores with only 8 minutes left against an Ohio State team they couldnt stop all game. unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Real Buffalo Joe Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 (edited) No he won't. Walmart is hiring. Didn't say it was a football job. Edited January 15, 2015 by The Real Buffalo Joe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillsFan-4-Ever Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Perfect article to explain what I mean. Worth the read. http://nypost.com/2015/01/14/hey-buffalo-rex-will-deliver-more-laughs-than-wins/ At this point what else can the Jersey media print? Most of the national media will follow suit just because the Bills past 15 years history. Rex was saddled with an owner and GM who (obviously) not up on getting or keeping top talent on the team. or did Rex have the power to select personnel? Will Rex be a winner in Buffalo ?? The hell if I know... Will I cheer and root for him hell yeah. Oh and a few laughs to go with it won't kill us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peterpan Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 cardale Jones will pick up those 4th and shorts on QB sneaks by running over nose tackles pffb bpb fpbfpbf(<----thats the sound Berman makes on ESPN) https://giant.gfycat.com/SimilarMarvelousImperatorangel.webm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hapless Bills Fan Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 Screw that, let's make it on third down. I like the way you think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted January 16, 2015 Share Posted January 16, 2015 the expected outcome, even if you happen to successfully pin the other team, points towards risking the 4th down Yeah, I think its go for it on 4th and 1 anytime past your own 43 or 44 yard line regarding the odds being in your favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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