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4th and 10 at the 15


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Fourth and 10 at the KC 15, we're down 4 points, 2:32 left in the game, Buffalo has all of its timeouts remaining.

 

Go for it? Are you kidding? If you take the FG and get a stop, you only need to get to the 35 or so for a chance at a game-winning FG with the wind at your back.

 

I haven't seen anything on this in the news coverage, but that may have been the worst game management decision since we punted from the 32 against the Patriots a few years back.

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It had me stumped also. Our D was playing lights out (aside from the 4th down play and the Alex Smith option) and would more than likely have stopped the Chiefs - There's no way they try and just kill the game, given the fact they would have only been up by one you force their hand more and press them into having to score at least a FG.

What concerns me more is that if Marrone had decided it was four down time - which you would have to assume - why was the play calling endzone or nothing? I mean, you would think it was goal to go. For crying out loud, 3rd and 10... Chiefs D assumed we were going to kick a FG if 3rd down failed, evident by the fact they only rushed 3 on 3rd down. I mean for crying out loud... A HB draw or the infamous shotgun hand off up the middle would have made the 4th down way more manageable.

Frustrating decisions by a head coach who seems over his head when it comes to game ending decisions more often than not.

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And if we didn't get the stop then the complaint would have been "we were right there. Truth in the matter is you don't throw 4 times in a row when you have 4 minutes and are running like Boobie and Bryce were running. Would have kept the ball on the ground. We would be talking about giving Boobie all the snaps today.

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Ya mean like the defense stopped them on third and 8 on the Chiefs last drive? Oh wait. they didn't.

 

That's right, the game will always pan out the way it does regardless of what happens. Sure, they wouldn't have, if in your realm the exact plays were called by both teams and the same outcome on each...

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I can see both sides of the argument of going for it vs. kicking the FG. The biggest problem I have is throwing to the end zone on each of the four downs instead of throwing in the field of play or running the ball. IMO, they should have focused on getting another 1st down before worrying about getting a TD in that scenario. It's a damn shame that Orton missed the wide open Hogan on 3rd and 10 so that this wouldn't have been a topic for discussion. :(

 

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Yea, despite everything else that went wrong in the game, it really did come down to colossal blundering on that sequence of plays -- all 4 downs. Orton probably threw his 4 worst passes of the day on those consecutive plays. There really seemed to be no plan or strategy from a play-calling perspective there. It was almost like each pas was a wing and a prayer.

 

There was over 3:00 to go (and they had all their timeouts) when they got down there around the 15, and I still do not understand why they were playing in desperation fashion like there was under 30 seconds to go and no timeouts. It was in their best interest for a variety of reasons to take their time, eat the clock, mix in some running plays, etc. If the strategy was to conserve time in the event that they didn't score a TD -- then they should have kicked the field goal. Just poorly handled by Marrone/Hackett/Orton.

Edited by 2003Contenders
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I can see both sides of the argument of going for it vs. kicking the FG. The biggest problem I have is throwing to the end zone on each of the four downs instead of throwing in the field of play or running the ball. IMO, they should have focused on getting another 1st down before worrying about getting a TD in that scenario. It's a damn shame that Orton missed the wide open Hogan on 3rd and 10 so that this wouldn't have been a topic for discussion. :(

 

 

 

I just finished this discussion with a co-worker. KC wasn't going to allow themselves to get beat in the end zone, you had all the time in the world to gain 10 yards and mix up your playbook. In that situation Hackett and Marrone need to be held to the fire for that.

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Why didn't they throw it underneath the coverage? Get the first down at the 5 and then go from there? It was like they thought it was 4th and goal. Did Doug forget what down and distance it was again? It was bizarre how they kept throwing it in the end zone when all they needed was the 10 yards for the first down

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And had Kyle Orton made one of the four passes the Bills would have scored a TD. And everyone here would have been saying how brilliant and gutsy the Bills coaching staff is for doing that! And that the Bills finally found their franchise QB.

 

:bag:

And Hogan was wide open for a TD on third down. Was not even a hard throw and Orton missed it badly.

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There's an objective (or very close to objective) answer to this that one of the analytics sites will likely post at some point soon.

 

My sense is that it actually was the correct move to pursue a TD there instead of attempting a FG, kicking off, relying on another defensive stop, counting on the offense to get into FG position again and then successfully executing another FG.

 

The caveat would be in the "pursuit" of the TD; that is, it didn't have to be 4 stabs at the endzone when getting another 1st down was possible, but the play was in fact there had the pass been on target.

Edited by MRM33064
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Fourth and 10 at the KC 15, we're down 4 points, 2:32 left in the game, Buffalo has all of its timeouts remaining.

 

Go for it? Are you kidding? If you take the FG and get a stop, you only need to get to the 35 or so for a chance at a game-winning FG with the wind at your back.

 

I haven't seen anything on this in the news coverage, but that may have been the worst game management decision since we punted from the 32 against the Patriots a few years back.

I can only assume you were not paying attention, or had the Bills +1.5, because the decision you are advocating for would in all likelihood have led to a 1 point loss. Kicking a FG only helps if the defense prevent the Chiefs from getting a first down, which it proved unable to do. What makes you think the Bills would have forced a 3 and out following a kickoff, when they failed to do so after turning it over on downs? Marrone made a lot of decisions yesterday that were awful, but you are picking on one of the few sound ones.
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That's right, the game will always pan out the way it does regardless of what happens. Sure, they wouldn't have, if in your realm the exact plays were called by both teams and the same outcome on each...

You're right, no way to know for sure because it didn't happen. We didn't kick the field goal and we didn't stop them on 3rd and 8 to get the ball back sooner. We lost the game and we lost it on stupid mistakes. The fumbles, the missed throws in the red zone and yes the play calling and decision making. It was one big "Aw ****" kind of day.
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I was miffed at the fact that they threw four straight times to the endzone. Why didn't they use the run, which was working or shorter patterns? Does anyone else see the irony witht he Hackett play calling? The Bills are finally able to run the ball effectively and they decide to throw twice on second and two from the three yard line earlier in the game. It's like Hackett doesn't have a feel for the game

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Fourth and 10 at the KC 15, we're down 4 points, 2:32 left in the game, Buffalo has all of its timeouts remaining.

 

Go for it? Are you kidding? If you take the FG and get a stop, you only need to get to the 35 or so for a chance at a game-winning FG with the wind at your back.

 

I haven't seen anything on this in the news coverage, but that may have been the worst game management decision since we punted from the 32 against the Patriots a few years back.

 

Agree 100%...

 

I just can't figure Marrone out...Maybe it's just me...But it's like he's conservative when he should be aggressive, and aggressive when he should be conservative...It's not 4th and 1...Or even 4th and 5...Your Defense has been playing well most of the game, you have one of the best kickers in the league, your at home, and you still have all your TO's plus the 2 minute warning...To me, the FG there was a no-brainer...But I understand how, in this day and age, folks want to err on the side of being aggressive...I get that...But in that situation I kick the FG and put it on my Defense to get me the ball back one more time knowing that with Carpenter, if I get the ball to the Chiefs 30 or so, it's all but automatic... B-)

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I was surprised. I cant hang them on that call.

 

 

What gets me though, is why they didn't decide it was "4 down territory" and concentrate on getting the 10 yards instead of 4 straight shots at the end zone.

We couldn't stop them anyway. So we lose by one. Did you have money on the game and needed to cover?

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We couldn't stop them anyway. So we lose by one. Did you have money on the game and needed to cover?

 

I dont understand your question or issue with what I said.

 

Im saying, if they had it predetermined that they would go for it (which I hope they did if they went for it on 4th and 10), why take 4 shots at the end zone? Why not try to get the 10 yards in 4 downs which is much easier to get, then have 4 shots inside the 5. Not to mention burn off clock for KC's answer.

 

 

In a vacuum, I cant hate the call to go for it there.

Edited by May Day 10
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Play to win.. I read that all the time on this board. So the coach makes the call to win the game and everyone says he shold have been more conservative. You can't have it both ways

 

This^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

 

Had Orton made one of the four passes and scored a TD people here would not only be talking playoffs but also talking Super Bowl! Yup!!

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We have one of the wimpiest 4th down coaches in a league full of wimpy 4th down coaches, which was proven over and over again yesterday. Zero threads on the wimpy punts/FG's. Threads on the one time they went for it though. If I didn't know fans better it'd be unbelievable.

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Fourth and 10 at the KC 15, we're down 4 points, 2:32 left in the game, Buffalo has all of its timeouts remaining.

 

Go for it? Are you kidding? If you take the FG and get a stop, you only need to get to the 35 or so for a chance at a game-winning FG with the wind at your back.

 

I haven't seen anything on this in the news coverage, but that may have been the worst game management decision since we punted from the 32 against the Patriots a few years back.

A TD gives you the lead, a FG means you have to score again after holding KC w/o a score.

 

it was the right call. the QB was off target.

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We have one of the wimpiest 4th down coaches in a league full of wimpy 4th down coaches, which was proven over and over again yesterday. Zero threads on the wimpy punts/FG's. Threads on the one time they went for it though. If I didn't know fans better it'd be unbelievable.

:worthy:

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Go for TD no question. We saw what happened when bills got ball back after KC punt. No time except for silly razzle dazzle play.

 

Completely agree, cant believe anyone thought kicking the FG was the right call there

 

the mistake was going for the TD on all 4 plays, why not run and continue to move the ball...they acted like there was 20 seconds left in the game

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A TD gives you the lead, a FG means you have to score again after holding KC w/o a score.

 

it was the right call. the QB was off target.

I see your logic, but I disagree. You kick the FG and play to your teams strength, Defense. The D and ST got the Bills to the 25 in the first place. The O is at best average, did not do much the entire game except the first series, and Orton was having a bad game. Bad decision IMO, and going for the TD all 4 plays was flat out stupid.

Edited by CodeMonkey
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Completely agree, cant believe anyone thought kicking the FG was the right call there

 

the mistake was going for the TD on all 4 plays, why not run and continue to move the ball...they acted like there was 20 seconds left in the game

Seems to me if you're trying to save the clock it's to get the ball back and try to score. So if you're trying that, you should kick the field goal, right? By saving all that time, they were giving KC more time to score if we put it in for a touch. For example, if we would have hit that 3rd down throw, kc would have had a lot of time on the clock to score a touchdown.

 

The sequence baffles me, I don't understand it.

 

I agree with the underneath stuff, would love to have seen the ball in boobies hands on a little flare pattern. Just try and stop him with a head of steam. Something it seems the Pats* do with regularity, not putting themselves in long down and distance.

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If they kicked a field goal there, I would have walked out of the stadium. No way you don't go for the win when this team has sucked for more than a decade. 10 yards vs banking on a 3 and out, marching back down to field goal range and kicking it?! Which one of those two scenarios sounds more difficult?

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I was surprised. I cant hang them on that call.

 

 

What gets me though, is why they didn't decide it was "4 down territory" and concentrate on getting the 10 yards instead of 4 straight shots at the end zone.

 

This exactly what I was thinking. If you are going on 4th no matter what, which was the case since they did, why not pickup a few yards on 1-3rd down???? Mind numbing trying to figure these JV coaches out. In over their heads.

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If they knew they were in 4 down territory they should have ran it a couple times to create a 4th and short. We were running all over them our past 2 drives. Terrible play calling to throw to the endzone 4 times in a row on the #1 ranked pass defense in the league with Orton as your QB.

 

ESPECIALLY since it wasn't goal-to-go and we could have gotten a first down before the endzone.

Edited by TheBillsWillRiseAgain
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