The Best to Never Get There

[Buffalo716]

11 minutes ago, Gregg said:

 

The issue isn't Allen. He has played very well in the playoffs. It's the defense. I mentioned this before but I really hope the moves Beane made to improve the D are successful as the entire season depends on it. If not then expect more of the same. Division title, a win on WC weekend, then bounced in either the divisional round or AFCCG. Another year wasted of Allen's career. It's like watching groundhog day with the Beane/McDermott Bills every year.

I never said  Josh Allen was the problem 

 

Nobody wants to believe it but the biggest problem is going into the playoffs not healthy the last three plus years 

 

We played the chiefs with 11 players on the injury report seven defensive players 

 

You're not getting over the hump in arrowhead, when the margin of error is that slim... And you're not close to 100% 

 

When we saw the chiefs with two backups in their secondary.. Josh Allen looked like Dan Marino and Gabe Davis looked like Jerry Rice and we were unstoppable lol

 

We didn't have our best corner and our best safety, our second best safety was dinged up... Milano Dorian Williams, taron Johnson, Greg Rousseau , am Lewis were all dinged up going into the game 

 

In a game of inches where the talent margin is very small , in the postseason where everything is amplified, that is the biggest difference 

 

We were even more banged up in the playoffs two years ago lol we literally were playing AJ Klein out of retirement to cover Travis Kelce

 

You have to be healthy

Edited August 14 by Buffalo716

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, RoscoeParrish said:

Mike Greenberg isn’t a Bills fan.

 

this is going to keep happening, louder and louder.

 

It will. But I also don't think it makes it right.

[LABILLBACKER]

5 hours ago, Rubes said:

I'm not sure if I should feel proud or depressed.

 

It's a very sad and disappointing stat. I'd argue Josh is a better all around qb than Dan Marino.  Unfortunately his career wr room and defenses have been unspectacular. 

[RoscoeParrish]

10 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It will. But I also don't think it makes it right.

With great QBs come great expectations. It’s a good problem to have

[folz]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

right

 

people are always saying, 'oh, we just have a Chiefs problem in the playoffs' like everyone in the AFC is in the same boat

 

well the chiefs average 23.5ppg in the playoffs vs everyone except us

against us they average 34.75

 

there is no QB play in nfl history good enough to make up for that discrepancy. the fact that we've even been competitive in these games is staggering

 

I use stats all the time, so I'm not knocking you 808, but sometimes they don't tell the whole picture. You would have to look back at each game to see why the scores were what they were. Maybe they score more against the Bills, not because our defense is so much worse than other playoff team's defenses, but because they have to in order to out-duel Josh. In the other games against weaker opponents, maybe they get the lead and then take their foot off the gas. Maybe they play more conservatively against lesser teams, but need to be more aggressive against the Bills, etc., etc. If they are up, maybe they just run the ball in the 4th quarter to run out the clock, where in the Bills game, Josh just scored again in the 4th and Pat has to respond. I just don't think that stat can really be used to some how definitively say the Bills defense is so much worse than every other playoff team's defense (who has played KC).

 

 

And other posters keep mentioning the defensive scheme as the problem. I am no defensive guru or Xs and Os guy (so those more knowledgeable please correct me if I am wrong), but doesn't Sean run a variation of the old Jim Johnson defense? And aren't Steve Spagnola, John Harbaugh, and Ron Rivera also Jim Johnson proteges? So, I would assume they have a very similar philosophy to Sean on defense (again please correct me if I'm wrong). So, I'm thinking that the defensive scheme/style can probably get you a Super Bowl. A good point brought up though is not getting pressure from the front four. Let me ask this. If in the last few battles with KC, we swapped Chris Jones for one of our DEs, do you think that would make a difference? Isn't that why Beane brought in Von and now Bosa? What if Von didn't get injured? He was looking great at the start of his stint with the Bills. 

 

And as Bills fans, I find it hard that some don't see the influence of the league at times. Yes, I mean the refs. Let's face it, the NFL wanted Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl last year. 

 

And too many people, in my mind, just discount all of the other circumstances and bad luck: the Damar incident, the blizzard, the injuries, the coin flip, etc.

 

There are sooooo many reasons why Josh has not made a Super Bowl yet, way beyond just coaching and personnel decisions. 

 

[Captain Hindsight]

Hopefully the NFL decides to let Josh win one, instead having him always be the "best that never was"

[nedboy7]

1 minute ago, Captain Hindsight said:

Hopefully the NFL decides to let Josh win one, instead having him always be the "best that never was"

I think the board is pretending it’s not fixed. 😜

[GoBills808]

14 minutes ago, folz said:

 

I use stats all the time, so I'm not knocking you 808, but sometimes they don't tell the whole picture. You would have to look back at each game to see why the scores were what they were. Maybe they score more against the Bills, not because our defense is so much worse than other playoff team's defenses, but because they have to in order to out-duel Josh. In the other games against weaker opponents, maybe they get the lead and then take their foot off the gas. Maybe they play more conservatively against lesser teams, but need to be more aggressive against the Bills, etc., etc. If they are up, maybe they just run the ball in the 4th quarter to run out the clock, where in the Bills game, Josh just scored again in the 4th and Pat has to respond. I just don't think that stat can really be used to some how definitively say the Bills defense is so much worse than every other playoff team's defense (who has played KC).

 

 

And other posters keep mentioning the defensive scheme as the problem. I am no defensive guru or Xs and Os guy (so those more knowledgeable please correct me if I am wrong), but doesn't Sean run a variation of the old Jim Johnson defense? And aren't Steve Spagnola, John Harbaugh, and Ron Rivera also Jim Johnson proteges? So, I would assume they have a very similar philosophy to Sean on defense (again please correct me if I'm wrong). So, I'm thinking that the defensive scheme/style can probably get you a Super Bowl. A good point brought up though is not getting pressure from the front four. Let me ask this. If in the last few battles with KC, we swapped Chris Jones for one of our DEs, do you think that would make a difference? Isn't that why Beane brought in Von and now Bosa? What if Von didn't get injured? He was looking great at the start of his stint with the Bills. 

 

And as Bills fans, I find it hard that some don't see the influence of the league at times. Yes, I mean the refs. Let's face it, the NFL wanted Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl last year. 

 

And too many people, in my mind, just discount all of the other circumstances and bad luck: the Damar incident, the blizzard, the injuries, the coin flip, etc.

 

There are sooooo many reasons why Josh has not made a Super Bowl yet, way beyond just coaching and personnel decisions. 

 

no offense taken

 

but imo the stats I gave don't even paint the whole picture...it actually gets much worse if you go further. for example: a typical NFL MVP season for a quarterback will avg around .26-.28 EPA per dropback over the course of the year. Mahomes in the playoffs vs our defense averages an absurd .54. He's basically having twice as much success vs our playoff defense than your average league MVP. It's not just that the defense is bad, it's almost unfathomably poor

 

the Bengals have managed to hold the chiefs to 23.5ppg over the course of two games. which happens to be exactly the Chiefs playoff scoring average, so not a great feat by any stretch. if we, by comparison, had been able to play merely average defense over the course of our playoff history vs Chiefs we'd be undefeated against them. we just watched the texans hold them to 23 and the ravens to 17. i mean even the dolphins were able to give up only 26 in a game where their offense got dominated! we've never held the Chiefs to 26 in the playoffs, ever

 

i just think it's incredibly unlikely that if (as you posit) we only gave up say 21 points in a playoff game vs Chiefs we'd end up only scoring 20 when we average over 28 in games Allen starts

[HomeskillitMoorman]

44 minutes ago, folz said:

 

I use stats all the time, so I'm not knocking you 808, but sometimes they don't tell the whole picture. You would have to look back at each game to see why the scores were what they were. Maybe they score more against the Bills, not because our defense is so much worse than other playoff team's defenses, but because they have to in order to out-duel Josh. In the other games against weaker opponents, maybe they get the lead and then take their foot off the gas. Maybe they play more conservatively against lesser teams, but need to be more aggressive against the Bills, etc., etc. If they are up, maybe they just run the ball in the 4th quarter to run out the clock, where in the Bills game, Josh just scored again in the 4th and Pat has to respond. I just don't think that stat can really be used to some how definitively say the Bills defense is so much worse than every other playoff team's defense (who has played KC).

 

 

And other posters keep mentioning the defensive scheme as the problem. I am no defensive guru or Xs and Os guy (so those more knowledgeable please correct me if I am wrong), but doesn't Sean run a variation of the old Jim Johnson defense? And aren't Steve Spagnola, John Harbaugh, and Ron Rivera also Jim Johnson proteges? So, I would assume they have a very similar philosophy to Sean on defense (again please correct me if I'm wrong). So, I'm thinking that the defensive scheme/style can probably get you a Super Bowl. A good point brought up though is not getting pressure from the front four. Let me ask this. If in the last few battles with KC, we swapped Chris Jones for one of our DEs, do you think that would make a difference? Isn't that why Beane brought in Von and now Bosa? What if Von didn't get injured? He was looking great at the start of his stint with the Bills. 

 

And as Bills fans, I find it hard that some don't see the influence of the league at times. Yes, I mean the refs. Let's face it, the NFL wanted Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl last year. 

 

And too many people, in my mind, just discount all of the other circumstances and bad luck: the Damar incident, the blizzard, the injuries, the coin flip, etc.

 

There are sooooo many reasons why Josh has not made a Super Bowl yet, way beyond just coaching and personnel decisions. 

 

 

But you can think and see both things at the same time. The existence of one doesn't negate the existence of the other.

 

Yes there has been some bad luck...but there is a consistent pattern here too, that our D has been overall horrendous in the playoffs and especially against the Chiefs even in years where their offense has been mediocre. 

 

Those factors you are talking about can co-exist with our defense consistently over 6 postseasons now, to put it lightly, coming up short in these big games. It's not just one or the other. You can say there are more reasons...but this is definitely one of them and out of the ones you mentioned it's actually a controllable one that they could make a change with. 

Edited August 14 by HomeskillitMoorman

[H2o]

39 minutes ago, Captain Hindsight said:

Hopefully the NFL decides to let Josh win one, instead having him always be the "best that never was"

Until someone offs this guy, we don't stand a chance. 

[Mikie2times]

41 minutes ago, folz said:

 

I use stats all the time, so I'm not knocking you 808, but sometimes they don't tell the whole picture. You would have to look back at each game to see why the scores were what they were. Maybe they score more against the Bills, not because our defense is so much worse than other playoff team's defenses, but because they have to in order to out-duel Josh. In the other games against weaker opponents, maybe they get the lead and then take their foot off the gas. Maybe they play more conservatively against lesser teams, but need to be more aggressive against the Bills, etc., etc. If they are up, maybe they just run the ball in the 4th quarter to run out the clock, where in the Bills game, Josh just scored again in the 4th and Pat has to respond. I just don't think that stat can really be used to some how definitively say the Bills defense is so much worse than every other playoff team's defense (who has played KC).

 

 

And other posters keep mentioning the defensive scheme as the problem. I am no defensive guru or Xs and Os guy (so those more knowledgeable please correct me if I am wrong), but doesn't Sean run a variation of the old Jim Johnson defense? And aren't Steve Spagnola, John Harbaugh, and Ron Rivera also Jim Johnson proteges? So, I would assume they have a very similar philosophy to Sean on defense (again please correct me if I'm wrong). So, I'm thinking that the defensive scheme/style can probably get you a Super Bowl. A good point brought up though is not getting pressure from the front four. Let me ask this. If in the last few battles with KC, we swapped Chris Jones for one of our DEs, do you think that would make a difference? Isn't that why Beane brought in Von and now Bosa? What if Von didn't get injured? He was looking great at the start of his stint with the Bills. 

 

And as Bills fans, I find it hard that some don't see the influence of the league at times. Yes, I mean the refs. Let's face it, the NFL wanted Taylor Swift at the Super Bowl last year. 

 

And too many people, in my mind, just discount all of the other circumstances and bad luck: the Damar incident, the blizzard, the injuries, the coin flip, etc.

 

There are sooooo many reasons why Josh has not made a Super Bowl yet, way beyond just coaching and personnel decisions. 

 

The Bills have forced 6 punts in 4 KC playoff games. So to say that this is somehow related to the style of play seems pretty unlikely. 

 

2 punts in 2025

1 punt in 2024

2 punts in 2022

1 punt in 2021

 

Those coordinators don't share the same philosophy. So I wouldn't assume anything either way. 

 

We have heard it all. Injuries, refs, bad luck. My favorite is just that it's hard or the good old random argument. Yet in all this randomness and difficulty KC has been to 7 straight AFC championships (I know, the refs). New England won 3 Super Bowls in consecutive decades (I know, the refs). Eagles and 49ers have each gone multiple times in the last few years (I know the NFC is weak).

 

This isn't going to go away and it shouldn't go away. It's historic success and ineptitude combined in a way we have never seen in NFL history.

[Buffalo03]

2 hours ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

 

But again, the coaches on that list weren't consistently losing games that their elite QB's played very well in. Peyton had clunkers that were the reason for quite a few of his postseason losses. Those guys weren't scoring 27-30+ in those games almost every year and losing. 

 

Our defensive coach has gotten so much production from the offensive side of the ball in the playoffs and for 6 straight postseasons has not figured out how to be even half-decent in January. That's a big problem. 

 

I get what you're saying. But the point is, even if we went to or won one at this point, McDermott is basically right on part with other HOF head coaches based on playoff records. He is 7-7. If he had won a Super Bowl. He'd be 8-6. It's not far off. I agree, his defenses can be better in the playoffs. But even the best or greatest HC don't have great playoff records

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, RoscoeParrish said:

With great QBs come great expectations. It’s a good problem to have

 

For sure. I just don't think when it fails it automatically equals the coach is bad. I get it. In the modern world things are binary. That is just not reality though.

[Mikie2times]

6 minutes ago, Buffalo03 said:

 

I get what you're saying. But the point is, even if we went to or won one at this point, McDermott is basically right on part with other HOF head coaches based on playoff records. He is 7-7. If he had won a Super Bowl. He'd be 8-6. It's not far off. I agree, his defenses can be better in the playoffs. But even the best or greatest HC don't have great playoff records

 

Since 2020

2-5 in the divisional round or later

5-0 in the wild card round

 

No pattern here. 

 

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

For sure. I just don't think when it fails it automatically equals the coach is bad. I get it. In the modern world things are binary. That is just not reality though.

Coach doesn't have to be bad. Tony Dungy did the same thing. Might we still get one like he did? Sure. Will it still mean we underperformed in the postseason, yup.   

Edited August 14 by Mikie2times

[Success]

3 hours ago, wppete said:

 

This is a big part of the reason that I truly cannot stand people saying Mahomes is better than Allen because of rings.

 

It's a team game.  What I see in KC is guys MAKING those plays, and receivers like MVS suddenly having one of their best games against us.  Allen's teammates have really let him down, for the most part.  It's the opposite in KC.

 

[Bad Things]

FFS, what a sad bunch of miserable bastards.

[SoTier]

6 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

Single elimination tournaments are, with rare exceptions, won by the team with the best quality coaching/roster.   Josh is great to be sure, but top to bottom from GM through HC all the way down to practice squad, the Chiefs have simply been better than the Bills, not by much, but enough.   Everyone can see it.  Reid/Spags are the best coaching duo in my lifetime-- the Bills have 1st time OC and DCs; Mahomes / Josh is probably a draw, but we have no one like Kelce or Jones, not even close.   

 

Bills can take a meaningless regular season game when injuries at that moment, etc. / home field can make a difference and neither team is opening its entire playbook (esp. the Chiefs), but when its win or go home, having one of a kind talent almost always wins.. Bills do not have one a kind talent anywhere.  Just a very good roster and organization top to bottom.   

 

Be happy people.   We are witnessing the best of the Bills 60+ year history. 

 

When evenly matched teams meet in a single elimination tournament, the games are generally unpredictable.  Too often the games come down to one or two plays, and injuries, referee's calls, bad bounces, miscues, and other occurrences that might be called "luck" are magnified in importance.  Dre Greenlaw's Achilles injury early in Super Bowl LVIII may have cost the 49ers a Lombardi.  

[Dan]

6 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Allen averages 66% passing and 327 yards of offense vs KC in the playoffs, w a TD/turnover ratio of 11/1...i would hardly call that knowing exactly what to do to beat him lol

Fair point.  LOL.  
 

I still wish he would be gone. 

[SinceThe70s]

8 hours ago, SoTier said:

Another day, another thread whining about how bad the Bills are and how bad McDermott is.    Is John Harbaugh also a bad HC because Lamar has started in a Super Bowl yet?

 

FYI, Dan Fouts and Warren Moon are the two best QBs who never made the Super Bowl.  Both Josh and Lamar still have plenty of time.   

 

Nobody is guaranteed anything in this life, including Bills fans.  Deal with it.

 

TY. John Elway was a perennial loser in too many peoples eyes until he was a HOFer due to SB wins. He was a better player before the SBs imo.  Elway got his days in the sun, I expect Josh will too (as a Bill), but no guarantees. I've been enjoying the ride since we drafted Josh and my boys asked me if we got the right QB. My answer was simple: I have no effin idea but we got one of the top 4 and that's who we're riding with. Good times. 

[ganesh]

9 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Elway didn't win his first Super Bowl until his 15th year in the league, so he was 35 or something.

And it needed a great coach to get him there