MasterStrategist Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 2 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said: Ironic that we have a GM named B. Beane, because it looks like our GM, Brandon, appears to be taking a page out of the GM of the Oakland A's Billy "Moneyball" Beane from years past. Given the cap constraints that we find ourselves in this year, that makes sense. Rather than looking at a conventional WR1, WR2, etc., Beane is looking at the totality of the receiving corps which coupled with an elite QB, he believes can maintain the overall production from the team last year that did ostensibly have a "WR1" in Diggs. It is true that we are losing our top 2 receivers from last season in Diggs and Davis who accounted for 152 catches, 1929 yards and 15 TDs. But if we take a step back and look at the final 7 games of the season, when Brady was calling the offense (and the team went 6-1 with just the one heartbreaking loss to Philly), Diggs/Davis combined for just 46 catches, 571 yards and 3 TDs. Worse, Diggs was disparagingly unproductive with the receptions he did have, averaging less than 10 yards per catch, 315 yards on 34 receptions and just 1 TD. Shakir was more productive than either of them over that span, accounting for 363 yards (Davis had 256). Meanwhile, after our top 3 in Diggs/Davis/Shakir, there was very little production from any other WR. Sherfield and Harty COMBINED for 26 receptions, 236 yards and 2 TDs. Getting more production from our new WR4 and WR5 could help to cushion the blow of losing Diggs and Davis. So would hopefully seeing an uptick in Shakir's production. I am not suggesting that Shakir is capable of fully replacing Diggs just because he was more productive later in the season (and especially in the playoffs) than Diggs. But assuming Shakir is a more primary target in the 2024 offense, it stands to reason that he can increase his total 2024 output of 39 receptions for 611 yards and 2 TDs substantially. He wasn't far behind Davis last year in terms of catches (45-to-39) and yards (746-to-611), so I do not think it is unreasonable to project, say, 52 receptions for 800 yards for Shakir. Replacing Davis's TD output may not be as easy -- but I think 4-5 TDs for Shakir is a reasonable, conservative expectation. I can also see similar numbers for Samuels (he had 62 receptions and 4 TDs last season with garbage at QB) and the rookie Coleman, who I can see being a TD-machine in this offense and matching (or even exceeding) Davis' TD output. Getting back to the Bills' dismal WR4 and WR5 production in 2023, coming off an admittedly underwhelming season, MVS still out-produced Sherfield/Harty COMBINED with 315 yards. He's just a year removed from posting 687 yards and posted 690 back in 2020. That's to say that he alone could make up for some of the lost WR production -- and help to provide some added insurance in the event that Coleman has a rookie learning curve to overcome. Whomever from Hollins/Cephus/Claypool/Hamler/Shorter makes the team should also pick up some of that production as well. Of course, none of this even accounts for the expected involvement (and improvement) from the TEs and RBs in the passing game. Long story short, if we replace from 2023: Diggs 107 rec 1183 yards 8 TD Davis 45 rec 746 yards 7 TD Shakir 39 rec 611 yards 2 TD Harty 15 rec 150 yards 1 TD Sherfield 11 rec 86 yards 1 TD ------------------------------------ Total 217 rec 2776 yards 19 TD With something like for 2024: Shakir 52 rec 800 yards 5 TD Samuel 65 rec 770 yards 4 TD Coleman 51 rec 750 yards 8 TD MVS 31 rec 480 yards 2 TD Hollins* 16 rec 200 yards 1 TD ------------------------------------ Total 215 rec 3000 yards 20 TD In this scenario (which I don't think is unreasonable), we still get better production from the top 5 WRs even if we don't have a single WR with 100+ receptions and 1000+ yards. Exactly. Some people struggle (or less optimistic) to envision a successful offense, without a true #1 or 1/2 punch. Reality is what you said, is very possible/very likely if you ask me, when 17 is our QB. Not to mention getting likely more production at TE/RB passing attack as well, with any combination of improved Kincaid, healthier Knox, Cook getting more pass game touches or Davis being a legit #2 back/3rd down option. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 18 minutes ago, Logic said: Thanks for the post. I truly appreciate your perspective and your taking the time to try to instill some optimism in me. As to the things I bolded: 1.) I don't think ranking WR corps (on paper, which is all anyone can really do at this time of year) is a meaningless exercise. I think there is value in sizing up different areas of a team's roster and weighing them against other team's personnel, to see how your team may stack up against others or what kind of attention your GM is or isn't paying to certain areas of a roster at a given moment. I wonder if your hesitance to participate in this exercise is indicative of the fact that you, like me, would fail to be able to honestly rate them much higher than "bottom third". 2.) As HappyDays pointed out above, pretty much every Super Bowl participant going back multiple years has had a dominant #1 pass catcher. Sure, in the Chiefs' case, it's been the tight end. And yes, the Bills have a young one who looks like he COULD become elite. But he's not there yet, and building the roster around him as if he already is doesn't seem like the soundest strategy to me. Hope is not a plan. 3.) I will admit to adamantly voicing my displeasure with the way Beane has gone about building the WR corps this year. But if my disapproval has been "over the top", then I would argue that those defending the team have at times been just as over the top in their delivery. I think the offense's success this season will depend on a lot of "hoped for" things coming to fruition. We HOPE Shakir breaks out. We HOPE Samuel has a career best season. We HOPE Coleman hits the ground running. We HOPE Kincaid proves to be a Kelce level player. We HOPE Claypool or MVS or Hamler step up. We HOPE Brady proves to be a good OC now that he has the gig full time. IF all of those things come true, then we'll have a good offense. But hoping/expecting that many things to happen seems just as over the top as me fearing that they won't. If I have any anger at all, it's because I have the gnawing feeling that my favorite team is failing to optimally set its franchise QB up for success offensively, and that that failure is starting to become an ongoing pattern. 4.) While no DC "ignores" anyone in the NFL, I only see one guy on the Bills' roster who might command some special attention, and that's Kincaid. None of the Bills' WRs are guys that opposing DCs are circling in red pen or having extra meetings about. Again, I appreciate your response. I respect your position. I understand and accept that others are more optimistic about this plan working out than I am, and I understand and accept that my pessimism on the matter is a departure from my usual rosy outlook on things. I'm sticking to what my eyes and my gut tell me. I hope -- I really, truly, sincerely hope -- that I'm wrong and you're right. I will happily come back here at the end of the 2024 season if the Bills are a fantastic passing offense and my fears prove unfounded, and tell everyone how wrong wrong wrong I was. You can hold me to that. And I hope that I can hold you to the same if the inverse happens, and the Bills are toothless in the passing game. I think Diggs was part of the plan for 2024. Diggs removed himself from that plan, so... this is likely not the "plan A" that was put together for the offseason. Trading for a name would've been cool, but its a challenge when Diggs cap hit actually went up when you trade him. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SoCal Deek Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 7 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said: Ironic that we have a GM named B. Beane, because it looks like our GM, Brandon, appears to be taking a page out of the GM of the Oakland A's Billy "Moneyball" Beane from years past. Given the cap constraints that we find ourselves in this year, that makes sense. Rather than looking at a conventional WR1, WR2, etc., Beane is looking at the totality of the receiving corps which coupled with an elite QB, he believes can maintain the overall production from the team last year that did ostensibly have a "WR1" in Diggs. It is true that we are losing our top 2 receivers from last season in Diggs and Davis who accounted for 152 catches, 1929 yards and 15 TDs. But if we take a step back and look at the final 7 games of the season, when Brady was calling the offense (and the team went 6-1 with just the one heartbreaking loss to Philly), Diggs/Davis combined for just 46 catches, 571 yards and 3 TDs. Worse, Diggs was disparagingly unproductive with the receptions he did have, averaging less than 10 yards per catch, 315 yards on 34 receptions and just 1 TD. Shakir was more productive than either of them over that span, accounting for 363 yards (Davis had 256). Meanwhile, after our top 3 in Diggs/Davis/Shakir, there was very little production from any other WR. Sherfield and Harty COMBINED for 26 receptions, 236 yards and 2 TDs. Getting more production from our new WR4 and WR5 could help to cushion the blow of losing Diggs and Davis. So would hopefully seeing an uptick in Shakir's production. I am not suggesting that Shakir is capable of fully replacing Diggs just because he was more productive later in the season (and especially in the playoffs) than Diggs. But assuming Shakir is a more primary target in the 2024 offense, it stands to reason that he can increase his total 2024 output of 39 receptions for 611 yards and 2 TDs substantially. He wasn't far behind Davis last year in terms of catches (45-to-39) and yards (746-to-611), so I do not think it is unreasonable to project, say, 52 receptions for 800 yards for Shakir. Replacing Davis's TD output may not be as easy -- but I think 4-5 TDs for Shakir is a reasonable, conservative expectation. I can also see similar numbers for Samuels (he had 62 receptions and 4 TDs last season with garbage at QB) and the rookie Coleman, who I can see being a TD-machine in this offense and matching (or even exceeding) Davis' TD output. Getting back to the Bills' dismal WR4 and WR5 production in 2023, coming off an admittedly underwhelming season, MVS still out-produced Sherfield/Harty COMBINED with 315 yards. He's just a year removed from posting 687 yards and posted 690 back in 2020. That's to say that he alone could make up for some of the lost WR production -- and help to provide some added insurance in the event that Coleman has a rookie learning curve to overcome. Whomever from Hollins/Cephus/Claypool/Hamler/Shorter makes the team should also pick up some of that production as well. Of course, none of this even accounts for the expected involvement (and improvement) from the TEs and RBs in the passing game. Or that Brady's offense may be less WR-centric and more run-oriented and make more use of 12-personnel and TE involvement. Long story short, if we replace from 2023: Diggs 107 rec 1183 yards 8 TD Davis 45 rec 746 yards 7 TD Shakir 39 rec 611 yards 2 TD Harty 15 rec 150 yards 1 TD Sherfield 11 rec 86 yards 1 TD ------------------------------------ Total 217 rec 2776 yards 19 TD With something like for 2024: Shakir 52 rec 800 yards 5 TD Samuel 65 rec 770 yards 4 TD Coleman 51 rec 750 yards 8 TD MVS 31 rec 480 yards 2 TD Hollins* 16 rec 200 yards 1 TD ------------------------------------ Total 215 rec 3000 yards 20 TD In this scenario (which I don't think is unreasonable), we still get better production from the top 5 WRs even if we don't have a single WR with 100+ receptions and 1000+ yards. One of my all time favorite movie lines is when Brad Pitt explains to David Justice that the NY Yankees are paying him millions of dollars to play against them. 😂😂😂 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastMaster Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 (edited) 2 hours ago, Logic said: I'm not gonna make a separate post on this topic, because everyone will get all up in arms and accuse me of making a LAMP, and it'll do more harm than good, but... I'm genuinely curious: If trying as hard as possible to be objective and unbiased, where would each fan on this message board rank our WR corps compared to the rest of the league? Maybe you could even give it two scores, one for where it appears to be now (on paper), and one for the potential of what you think it could become. But either way, I'd really love to know that answer. Cutting away all of the rest of the discussion, I'm just curious where everyone would rank our WR unit. I genuinely want to know. I think this is part of the issue. It's like people are playing Madden and they are upset because our best WR is an 81 and most teams have a 88 or better. The real question and possible problem will be is there a guy we can go to when we need a play? Is that guy even on the roster? Is there maybe more than one? I think Coleman was drafted to be able to win jump balls and make contested catches, but can someone else be counted on when we have to have a first down? I won't debate whether most teams have a stronger WR group at the top, but what about all around depth? Do they have a mixture of size, speed, blocking, slot guys, etc? There's also so many different factors like the coordinator, the system, the guy throwing the ball, the Oline, the RB's I trust that these guys have a plan, and hopefully it's not a McDermott plan when it comes to the offense because he has no business on that side of the ball Edited May 14 by BeastMaster 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo_Stampede Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 Anyone ever look at the WRs for Beane and McDermott’s Carolina Panthers Super Bowl team in 2015. TE Greg Olsen lead them in receptions by a large margin. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BananaB Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 (edited) 4 hours ago, billsfan89 said: Who is MVS taking snaps away from that really should be getting snaps? Shakir, Samuel and Coleman should get their snaps in. Shorter is likely the only young player that is going to get snaps eaten into by MVS and I am fine with it as I think having a big speedy WR whose durable and experienced is a good add for a WR room that needs some veteran depth. I’m gonna say Coleman. He’ll show potential but won’t hit his stride this year. Not with a big rotation of guys fighting for targets. McD likes his vets and is loyal to them even when they struggle. WR room starting to look like the dline room, a bunch of average guys and an early draft pick to spark hope in the fans. Edited May 14 by BananaB Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoBills808 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 12 minutes ago, MasterStrategist said: Exactly. Some people struggle (or less optimistic) to envision a successful offense, without a true #1 or 1/2 punch. Reality is what you said, is very possible/very likely if you ask me, when 17 is our QB. Not to mention getting likely more production at TE/RB passing attack as well, with any combination of improved Kincaid, healthier Knox, Cook getting more pass game touches or Davis being a legit #2 back/3rd down option. You think it's very possibly/very likely every skill position on the roster improves over their average performance which will also be the first year in a new offense for 80% of the wr room? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blackbeard Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 10 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said: I think Diggs was part of the plan for 2024 I think so too. Something must've happened. And, in agreeing with WGR's point, the staff would've asked Allen about letting him go. Allen would've had a major say in keeping him IF Diggs wanted to stay. I believe Diggs wanted out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurlyBurly51 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 8 hours ago, PBF81 said: My point was that everyone grows about him when he was cheap. Now we're talking about taking on a lesser version of him at greater expense. That's so 2023. Wasn't an option moving forward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Simstim Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 Huh. That is a suprise move. I don't dislike it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldmanfan Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 1 hour ago, HappyDays said: Gonna go out on a limb and say adding a RB2 isn't going to fix all of the problems our offense had in that game. Why does it have to be all or none? 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhitewalkerInPhilly Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 20 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said: I think Diggs was part of the plan for 2024. Diggs removed himself from that plan, so... this is likely not the "plan A" that was put together for the offseason. Trading for a name would've been cool, but its a challenge when Diggs cap hit actually went up when you trade him. I think he was. If not, why did you wait for guarantees to kick in? I can only imagine that something happened in the offseason that either hit critical mass or exacerbated the fault lines. Now, long term, the team might see benefit: they were already over the salary cap for 2025 and likely got a top 45 pick But this is going to hurt short term Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billsfan89 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 (edited) 16 minutes ago, BananaB said: I’m gonna say Coleman. He’ll show potential but won’t hit his stride this year. Not with a big rotation of guys fighting for targets. McD likes his vets and is loyal to them even when they struggle. WR room starting to look like the dline room, a bunch of average guys and an early draft pick to spark hope in the fans. I don't think Coleman is going to get any snaps taken away for MVS at least not any significant amount (10% or less if there's any impact). The Bills plugged Kincaid and Torrence in right away in 2023 despite having Knox and Bates at those positions. I think the days of a high pick not playing arbitrarily are gone. If Coleman shows he can play (and he will get the opportunity in camp and pre-season, then he will play. If he needs a little more time to cook then the Bills at least have an option to take some of it on with MVS. Depth is important in a WR room we saw last year how one injury to Davis and the Bills were giving Sherfield snaps. I think MVS as a WR4 is a nice move to ensure depth. As much as it may impact Shorter getting some developmental snaps I think if Shorter wants to take a top 5-6 WR spot he's got to earn it either on special teams or as a weapon on offense. Edited May 14 by billsfan89 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logic Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 (edited) 2 minutes ago, billsfan89 said: I don't think Coleman is going to get any snaps taken away for MVS at least not any significant amount (10% or less if there's any impact). Depth is important in a WR room we saw last year how one injury to Davis and the Bills were giving Sherfield snaps. I think MVS as a WR4 is a nice move to ensure depth. As much as it may impact Shorter getting some developmental snaps I think if Shorter wants to take a top 5-6 WR spot he's got to earn it either on special teams or as a weapon on offense. If anything, I hope MVS DOES sometimes take snaps at X, but not to get Coleman off the field. Rather, I would like to see MVS running the deeper routes and clearout stuff, and then Coleman playing move/big slot WR, where he can get a free release and can attack opposing defense's (much smaller) nickel corners. Edited May 14 by Logic 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhitewalkerInPhilly Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 1 minute ago, billsfan89 said: I don't think Coleman is going to get any snaps taken away for MVS at least not any significant amount (10% or less if there's any impact). Depth is important in a WR room we saw last year how one injury to Davis and the Bills were giving Sherfield snaps. I think MVS as a WR4 is a nice move to ensure depth. As much as it may impact Shorter getting some developmental snaps I think if Shorter wants to take a top 5-6 WR spot he's got to earn it either on special teams or as a weapon on offense. They are just completely different in terms of play style. Whatever Coleman is for, there seems to be a plan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alphadawg7 Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 (edited) 1 hour ago, Logic said: Thanks for the post. I truly appreciate your perspective and your taking the time to try to instill some optimism in me. No problem, enjoy the dialogue and differing perspectives 1 hour ago, Logic said: As to the things I bolded: 1.) I don't think ranking WR corps (on paper, which is all anyone can really do at this time of year) is a meaningless exercise. I think there is value in sizing up different areas of a team's roster and weighing them against other team's personnel, to see how your team may stack up against others or what kind of attention your GM is or isn't paying to certain areas of a roster at a given moment. I wonder if your hesitance to participate in this exercise is indicative of the fact that you, like me, would fail to be able to honestly rate them much higher than "bottom third". You are right, maybe saying "meaningless" is a bit too harsh way to describe it as I do agree there is value in weighing yourself against the other contending teams, especially on analyzing where you can improve the roster. Where I was coming from is more from the perspective it is kind of meaningless right now in terms of the Bills though given we have not seen this group together on the field to truly understand how well it does or does not work for this offense. If the Bills lead the NFL in scoring this year with this group (and we might just do that), is it really a bottom tier group? I think too much emphasis is put on say the perceived individual talent vs the overall effectiveness of the group. Brady and Moss set NFL scoring records, including most TD receptions in what was an undefeated season and still had Wes Welker as well...just to lose to a guy who caught a ball on his helmet and not even make the SB champs roster the next year after being the hero of the Super Bowl. 1 hour ago, Logic said: 2.) As HappyDays pointed out above, pretty much every Super Bowl participant going back multiple years has had a dominant #1 pass catcher. Sure, in the Chiefs' case, it's been the tight end. And yes, the Bills have a young one who looks like he COULD become elite. But he's not there yet, and building the roster around him as if he already is doesn't seem like the soundest strategy to me. Hope is not a plan. I disagree with that assessment by HappyDays. The term "dominant" #1 pass catcher is being very loosely applied. Every team has a WR1, but I went back and looked at every box score today from the last 25 years, very few teams had someone I would call dominant. A dominant WR1 is someone who is undisputedly a top 10 WR at the very least. Every team is going to have a WR1 who leads their team in yards and receptions, doesn't make them dominant. And as far as Kincaid goes...yes you can build around him, he had an excellent rookie season. You drafted him to be a major part of your pass attack and he did not disappoint. This notion some have that he has to be on Kelce's GOAT level to count is wild to me and I have seen many state that. I mean Kincaid's start to his career was better than Kelces who also had a great start to his own career. 1 hour ago, Logic said: 3.) I will admit to adamantly voicing my displeasure with the way Beane has gone about building the WR corps this year. But if my disapproval has been "over the top", then I would argue that those defending the team have at times been just as over the top in their delivery. I think the offense's success this season will depend on a lot of "hoped for" things coming to fruition. We HOPE Shakir breaks out. We HOPE Samuel has a career best season. We HOPE Coleman hits the ground running. We HOPE Kincaid proves to be a Kelce level player. We HOPE Claypool or MVS or Hamler step up. We HOPE Brady proves to be a good OC now that he has the gig full time. IF all of those things come true, then we'll have a good offense. But hoping/expecting that many things to happen seems just as over the top as me fearing that they won't. If I have any anger at all, it's because I have the gnawing feeling that my favorite team is failing to optimally set its franchise QB up for success offensively, and that that failure is starting to become an ongoing pattern. This point here is the main one really...I am just gonna be honest here...I think it feels like those "defending" the current roster are more over the top than they are because you have been so harsh, so aggressively negative, that its getting matched so to speak when people come back and try and push back. I think the majority of those who are optimistic about this group are not really over the top about it and more feel like a spread the ball offense can work really well here after watching the team surge back from well out of the playoffs to the #2 seed and divisional champ again by running that style. And, quite honestly, I think part of that optimism comes from the fact that his personnel seems even better suited than last years for that style of offense and Brady now gets to do so after fully installing his offense rather than adjusting Dorseys. As one of those optimists, I can say that I think most of us fully understand that is no guarantee either and that we still need to see it on the field. On the other hand, there are posters, like yourself (just being honest) who have been adamantly protesting we are pretty much doomed and this group will almost certainly fail. But that being said, there are always people on both extremes too, so I know there are some on the extreme side of positive too. But lets go back to your "HOPE" designations. Coleman - I mean you would need to write the word "HOPE" next to any rookie WR we drafted, even MHJ because there are no guarantees of any player living up to expectations in the NFL. Ive seen higher graded players than MHJ flame out and bust in the NFL. So, while its fair to say you hope he works out, that's kind of an irrelevant designation because that is true anytime you draft a new starter at any position. Samuel - "HOPE Samuel has a career best season": Disagree that is the hope. We don't need him to have a career best season, nor do I even expect him too. Shakir - "HOPE Shakir breaks out": Disagree again here because he already broke out. We don't need him to become a 1200+ yard WR. If Shakir continues to make the plays he was making, continues to be a very good YAC guy, continues to be a high catch rate and efficient player, then he is going to a very valuable player for us. We just need him to do what he was doing last year when Brady doubled his targets when he took over that put him on pace for an 850 yard season while both Diggs and Davis were still here. Even if he just increases his production by 20% that makes him a 1000+ yard WR this year. So we don't need a major breakout, a 20% increase makes him a very important piece to the offense. Kincaid - "HOPE Kincaid proves to be a Kelce level player": Again, disagree that is the hope as he already went out and had a season thats as good as Kelce was at the start of his. He doesn't need to be the GOAT version of Kelce, he just needs to keep ascending. Another guy where a 20% increase puts him into elite TE production. All the rest: There is no one hoping MVS, Chase, Hollins, etc step up. WR4 on this team has had very little production since Allen arrived. We don't need some stud there and all 3 of those are capable of handling a WR4 role here, and there are other guys deeper on the roster with potential to compete for it too or the spots behind them 1 hour ago, Logic said: 4.) While no DC "ignores" anyone in the NFL, I only see one guy on the Bills' roster who might command some special attention, and that's Kincaid. None of the Bills' WRs are guys that opposing DCs are circling in red pen or having extra meetings about. Disagree on this one...Coleman's combination of size, athleticism, and catch radius will make him impossible to guard without rolling help over to him if he and Allen get it clicking. But, most importantly, this concept that an offense needs someone to draw special attention to succeed is over blown. When you have 5 guys who can get open and catch the ball and do damage with the ball in your hands, you will have mismatches. Lets not forget, the scariest man in the NFL is standing under center who can make you pay bad with his legs and teams also need to spy him as well as watch the RB's out of the backfield. Teams won't be able to just roll attention at will to players because any one of those guys can make the play on the field at any given moment. 1 hour ago, Logic said: Again, I appreciate your response. I respect your position. I understand and accept that others are more optimistic about this plan working out than I am, and I understand and accept that my pessimism on the matter is a departure from my usual rosy outlook on things. I'm sticking to what my eyes and my gut tell me. I hope -- I really, truly, sincerely hope -- that I'm wrong and you're right. I will happily come back here at the end of the 2024 season if the Bills are a fantastic passing offense and my fears prove unfounded, and tell everyone how wrong wrong wrong I was. You can hold me to that. And I hope that I can hold you to the same if the inverse happens, and the Bills are toothless in the passing game. And I appreciate yours and your differing viewpoints even if we don't share them exactly. And it wont be about a "I told you so" by end of next season, no one really "knows" anything right now. But, I will say this, I have a pretty strong record around here over the 20+ years I have been here on WR's and QB's. And while that is not a perfect record as no one bats 1.000, I do feel as confident in Coleman as I do just about any other WR we could have taken in the draft of being a very good player for us. And I think the biggest disconnect on some with Coleman is in their eyes even "very good" isn't good enough because they want that top 5 Alpha guy like you have discussed. But I do not think Josh Allen needs that kind of WR, nor does this offense, to be an elite offense. I think Diggs and Davis are addition by subtraction removing a target hog where there was pressure to keep him involved, and a limited route runner who struggled with consistency, awareness, and catching. In their place is a rookie with great hands and incredible catch radius and other guys who are smarter, better route runners, and have great hands. And so my optimism is built around that is how I prefer our offense to be and play, and I honestly think it will lead to maybe Allens best season yet. I don't know we get over the hump, we have a lot of new people on both sides of the ball, but I think this could prove to also be Beanes best draft yet. Edited May 14 by Alphadawg7 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MasterStrategist Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 (edited) 23 minutes ago, GoBills808 said: You think it's very possibly/very likely every skill position on the roster improves over their average performance which will also be the first year in a new offense for 80% of the wr room? Yes I do. Meaningless past stats: 1. Players with not credible data: Shakir and Coleman. Enough targets will be there for each to flirt with 700-800+ yard seasons. Proven Vets: Samuel, MVS, Hollins (if he wins #5). Proven from a standpoint of being reliable in their roles. Samuel 700-800, MVS 250-400, Hollins 150-200 yards. Again, when you have a star QB, stats are going to reflect that QBs skill and overall playcalling/scheme to a strong degree. Do I think he will pass for 4,500+? I'd put that at low odds. Does he match or exceed LYs production? IMO, im very condifent. I'm also bullish on Bradys scheme, year2/3 growth in WRs and TEs, and having better overall depth at WR (compared to Harty/Sherfield). Edited May 14 by MasterStrategist 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RiotAct Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 we like MVS now!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 2 hours ago, GoBills808 said: Imo all these are pretty easily better than Bills pass catchers except maybe Chargers and broncos I have New England in that group as well but I agree on the rest. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaos Posted May 14 Share Posted May 14 (edited) 3 hours ago, MasterStrategist said: Do I think he will pass for 4,500+? I'd put that at low odds. Does he match or exceed LYs production? IMO, im very condifent. Allen threw for 4,306 yards in 2023. You are confident he will exceed last years total, but put 4500 yards at low odds. Your predicition is pretty precise, somewhere between 4307 and 4499 yards. Edited May 14 by Chaos 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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