Beane's First-Round Deals

[T master]

32 minutes ago, Playoffs? said:

Hopefully he’s going after Andy Reid…

 

Oh yee of little faith ...

[finn]

16 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

The receivers would be great, but we have more than one need and would be handicapped in the draft for two years.

 

No, thanks.

I agree. If a draft is loaded in a position of need, you don't trade up. When he was Bills GM, John Butler would let the draft come to him; sometimes the best move is not to move. E.g., not panicking and giving up a fourth to trade up for Elam (given that Beane realized he wasn't a good fit despite his skills). It looks like plenty of good WRs will be available at the end of round one and even in round two. If a good edge rusher is available at 28, I'd take him and pick up a  WR in the second round. The alpha WR might be coming next year, when Beane has cap room, in the form of top free agent. Patience, grass hoper!

[Beast]

It’s time to get younger. One window has closed but another is opening.

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, finn said:

I agree. If a draft is loaded in a position of need, you don't trade up. When he was Bills GM, John Butler would let the draft come to him; sometimes the best move is not to move. E.g., not panicking and giving up a fourth to trade up for Elam (given that Beane realized he wasn't a good fit despite his skills). It looks like plenty of good WRs will be available at the end of round one and even in round two. If a good edge rusher is available at 28, I'd take him and pick up a  WR in the second round. The alpha WR might be coming next year, when Beane has cap room, in the form of top free agent. Patience, grass hoper!

 

There are 3 WR's who are the top WR in most draft classes, plus BTJ who is probably the 2nd WR in most classes

Go after them if you have conviction on a specific player.   Enough playing around and being cautious 

[Thurman#1]

8 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Using those picks to get a player who can be a top 5 WR with Allen  and another potentially elite WR  is  IMO well worth it  

The position is by far in desperate need of that talent level 

 

 

It's really not.

 

It would be great. But not worth that price tag. And there are guys after the top three who will have a good chance at being standouts.

 

Remember the Falcons. Went 14-2, seemed in a ton better shape as a roster than this Bills group does, made the same kind of huge tradeup you folks are talking about for Julio. And Julio was a fantastic WR.

 

2010:  13-3 without Julio

2011: traded for Julio, gutting the next two drafts, went 10-6

2012:  13-3

2013: 4-12

2014: 6-10

2015: 8-8

2016: 11-5, lost the Super Bowl. This was the year when they could have totally validated that trade. But they didn't.

2017: 10-6

2018: 7-9

 

Most times when you think you're only one guy away and the guy is a non-QB, you're wrong.

 

 

 

[nucci]

3 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

The rumor on twitter was a photo of OBJ, not Jefferson  and it was the Newark airport, not Buffalo

Sorry!  

well, he was close

[Mr. WEO]

31 minutes ago, Tipster19 said:

If I shared what I came across than I would only be feeding the rumor treadmill. The point is even if that is all bs it doesn’t matter. What matters is just knowing Beane and he’s not taking this laying down, he’s gonna come up with a big time shocker, just expect it.

 

taking what "laying down"?  his own action of trading a player/

 

lol wtf?

[ddaryl]

23 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Using those picks to get a player who can be a top 5 WR with Allen  and another potentially elite WR  is  IMO well worth it  

The position is by far in desperate need of that talent level 

they just got to make the right choice, but I agree. But I also share some trepidation with such a bold move. 

[mrags]

14 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

You can get playmakers and game changers without trading up to the top ten. You just can. And this is a year for WRs when it looks like there are likely to be some game changers available in the 20s and probably even into round two, maybe even round three.

 

As for not many holes, who's our LB depth? Do you really think the interior OL is solid with a guy who hasn't played more than a few dozen snaps at center since high school playing center? LG looks a bit questionable as well. Neither of the guys we've got lined up to play safety right now has ever settled in as a starter consistently in any of the teams they've been on. And our pass rush does NOT look good right now with last year's leading sacker gone.

 

We've got some real spots to fill. This lineup isn't a disaster, but if they don't fill some of these gaps and depth needs as well, we'll see the results on the field.

Well. I believe they 100% have their starters at just about every position right now. Other than maybe Safety. But honestly, they could wait until rd 4 to grab one, and if they aren’t sold on them as a starter opposite Rapp, there’s still an giant list of FAs out there that will likely be signing for close to vet min contract after the draft rolls around and camps are about to start. 
 

They have their starters on the DL and the OL. Of anything they are looking for backups. But i think Beane has realized you cannot have higher quality backups to spots that generally don’t get a lot of playing time instead of playmakers. 
 

yes you COULD get one later in the 20s. But the facts are that the top 3 are regarded as much better prospects than the next 5 guys. And after that there’s a drop off even more. If Beane thinks one of these guys can make a difference for the next 5+ years he might pull the trigger. 
 

and I’d argue that a true #1 WR is way more important a backup OG, a starting Safety, and a rotational DE put together. And if you posted a poll on this site, I’d bet you anything you want. That the majority would agree. 

[wppete]

Hopefully somehow he comes out with the 2 Xaviers in the draft and not trading up. Xavier Legette and Xavier Worthy would be an upgrade from Diggs. 

[Warriorspikes51]

Just now, wppete said:

Hopefully somehow he comes out with the 2 Xaviers in the draft and not trading up. Xavier Legette and Xavier Worthy would be an upgrade from Diggs. 

 

100% would love this.  I HAD THE IDEA FIRST LAST WEEK  😂😎

[mrags]

20 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

Sure.  And getting there from 28 is akin to getting to Alpha Centauri on your tricycle.

Ran out of all the vivid colored crayons I see. 

[SoCal Deek]

Just a few weeks ago the general consensus was that the Bills needed to use their picks to get younger and cheaper. I see nothing having changed. The draft is a total crap shoot. Stay where you are and the take the player you like best when you’re number comes up. 

[uticaclub]

Can we stop calling him Big Baller Beane? Other than drafting Allen, none of his “Big Baller” moves have worked out.

[Warriorspikes51]

1 minute ago, uticaclub said:

Can we stop calling him Big Baller Beane? Other than drafting Allen, none of his “Big Baller” moves have worked out.

 

You can do whatever you want  & the rest of us will choose to call him that if we want.  Thanks. 

[Thurman#1]

34 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

Curious how you came up with that comp?

 

Not that I would be against this trade (it's not the heart of two drafts as some claim)

 

28 becomes 16 and we have an extra 2nd next year.

 

So only real sacrifice is 60, 128 and next years 1st. We survived trading a 1st for Diggs, I think we would be just fine here as well. Plus we now have cap room (for next year) to make a splash if another big hole arises

 

 

So, the 1st and 2nd round picks in a draft when you don't have a 3rd rounder, and then the 1st and one of the two second rounders the next year is NOT the heart of two drafts? It absolutely is.

 

And you think we're going to get one of the top three WRs at 16? I mean, it's not impossible, but the likelihood of those three making it past about #10 or #12 is really slim.

 

I'd love to get some of what you're smoking.

 

Quick question: What do these players have in common? Kevin White, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (from Clemson to the Chargers), John Ross, Drake London and Sammy Watkins?

 

All WRs chosen in the top ten picks in the last ten years.

 

We tend to think "a top ten guy, he'll be a Ja'Marr Chase." And that ain't necessarily so. There are some very good WRs chosen in the top ten of those same drafts. But more who never justified the pick.

 

For those curious, here are all the rest of the top ten in those ten years:  Chase, Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Garrett Wilson, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans. That's five terrific players, one pretty damn good one in Smith and again, Kevin White, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (from Clemson to the Chargers), John Ross, Drake London and Sammy Watkins.

 

That's why you don't make such massive trade-ups unless you're doing it for a franchise QB. GMs tend to get carried away by their surety in their own abilities. And that's fools gold. Very very very few are genuine sure things. That's why Massey and Thaler and all of their inheritors say what they say. The data says tradeups that big are desperate, not to be made except for a franchise QB, as drafting a possible franchise QB is worth the prospect of a possible catastrophic failure, because you pretty much can't win without one.

 

 

Edited April 5 by Thurman#1

[BBFL]

What are the “couple of speculations that you came across”? 
 

Would be interesting for us to know to compound strength to your perspective. 
 

Please and thank you. 

[MikeSpeed]

29 minutes ago, 4merper4mer said:

DK Metcalf is the new shiny object?

DK goes with the whole Donkey Kong theme we're building...

Dawson Knox - DK

Dalton Kincaid - DK

🤔

[transient]

If there's going to be a big move this season, IMO, it has to be the draft. I can't see them adding significant salary this year by trading for a WR. If it means trading picks in next year's draft, a year they'll get significant cap relief from all of the moves this offseason, they can fill in the roster with FA's in 2025. I can see Beane doing this if the player they really want is attainable. They can then let the kids get their feet wet this season when they'll be competitive but, unless they unexpectedly catch fire, are probably not going to make a serious run at the SB, and then they'll be ready to roll next season.

[Warriorspikes51]

5 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

So, the 1st and 2nd round picks in a draft when you don't have a 3rd rounder, and then the 1st and one of the two second rounders the next year is NOT the heart of two drafts? It absolutely is.

 

And you think we're going to get one of the top three WRs at 16? I mean, it's not impossible, but the likelihood of those three making it past about #10 or #12 is really slim.

 

I'd love to get some of what you're smoking.

 

Quick question: What do these players have in common? Kevin White, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (from Clemson to the Chargers), John Ross, Drake London and Sammy Watkins?

 

All WRs chosen in the top ten picks in the last ten years.

 

We tend to think "a top ten guy, he'll be a Ja'Marr Chase." And that ain't necessarily so. There are some very good WRs chosen in the top ten of those same drafts. But more who never justified the pick.

 

For those curious, here are all the rest of the top ten in those ten years:  Chase, Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Garrett Wilson, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans. That's five terrific players, one pretty damn good one in Smith and again, Kevin White, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (from Clemson to the Chargers), John Ross, Drake London and Sammy Watkins.

 

That's why you don't make such massive trade-ups unless you're doing it for a franchise QB.

no, but Thomas Jr may be there at 16

Also, if the scouts and Beane believe 1 of the top 3 is worth the price....you do it.   

Allen should have a top tier player he can rely on.  There's a higher % chance it's one of those top 3  then the other guys available at 28 

[PBF81]

1 hour ago, mrags said:

100%. He doesn’t make a move like this unless he’s got something planned. I really think it’s one of 3 options. 

 

Seems that he regretfully made the move for the simple reason that you can't have a player that said/implied what Diggs did on the team.  

 

There no indication that this was planned much less expected, until very recently, much less that they wanted this.  

 

If it is, then they've been flat out lying to everyone for a long while.  

 

 

Edited April 5 by PBF81

[Thurman#1]

Just now, Warriorspikes51 said:

no, but Thomas Jr may be there at 16

Also, if the scouts and Beane believe 1 of the top 3 is worth the price....you do it.   

Allen should have a top tier player he can rely on.  There's a higher % chance it's one of those top 3  then the other guys available at 28 

 

 

Oh, agreed that Thomas Junior might be there. But he's just not worth giving up nearly that much for.

 

Not that that any non-QB is. But Thomas Jr. sure isn't.

[Bray Wyatt]

3 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

So, the 1st and 2nd round picks in a draft when you don't have a 3rd rounder, and then the 1st and one of the two second rounders the next year is NOT the heart of two drafts? It absolutely is.

 

And you think we're going to get one of the top three WRs at 16? I mean, it's not impossible, but the likelihood of those three making it past about #10 or #12 is really slim.

 

I'd love to get some of what you're smoking.

 

Quick question: What do these players have in common? Kevin White, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (from Clemson to the Chargers), John Ross, Drake London and Sammy Watkins?

 

All WRs chosen in the top ten picks in the last ten years.

 

We tend to think "a top ten guy, he'll be a Ja'Marr Chase." And that ain't necessarily so. There are some very good WRs chosen in the top ten of those same drafts. But more who never justified the pick.

 

For those curious, here are all the rest of the top ten in those ten years:  Chase, Waddle, DeVonta Smith, Garrett Wilson, Amari Cooper, Mike Evans. That's five terrific players, one pretty damn good one in Smith and again, Kevin White, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (from Clemson to the Chargers), John Ross, Drake London and Sammy Watkins.

 

That's why you don't make such massive trade-ups unless you're doing it for a franchise QB.

 

First, we can have a conversation without all of the dramatics and condescension. 

 

If the scenario played out as the person I quoted stated I wouldnt be against that solution to our WR issue.

 

In this draft we would still have made a pick in the first (Brian Thomas in the scenario given). And yes we wouldnt pick again til the 4th round. (so we miss out on picks in the second and third round)

 

Next draft we would only be missing a pick in the first round. I wouldnt call that missing a heart of the draft, you choose to say so, fine we disagree. I dont see either take as unreasonable I just dont agree with yours.

 

Also in this scenario, we would be getting DK metcalf, who I think is the exact type of receiver this offense is missing. So this isnt a trade up for one player a la Julio Jones, we would be getting DK as well, thus making these scenarios different.

 

 

[Thurman#1]

2 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Seems that he regretfully made the move for the simple reason that you can't have a player that said/implied what Diggs did on the team.  

 

There no indication that this was planned much less expected, until very recently, much less that they wanted this.  

 

If it is, then they've been flat out lying to everyone for a long while.  

 

 

 

 

Very much this.

 

I'm sure he's got a plan. But it's unlikely to be the kind of huge splash folks on here would like it to be.

 

IMO it won't be trading for Aiyuk or someone of that sort, but my guess is that kind of move is more likely than the huge move in the draft so many here want.

 

Guess we'll see.

[uticaclub]

12 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

You can do whatever you want  & the rest of us will choose to call him that if we want.  Thanks. 

He was giving the nickname after he signed Miller, extended Diggs, traded up for Elam, signed OJ Howard & Roger Staffold.

[Thurman#1]

15 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

First, we can have a conversation without all of the dramatics and condescension. 

 

If the scenario played out as the person I quoted stated I wouldnt be against that solution to our WR issue.

 

In this draft we would still have made a pick in the first (Brian Thomas in the scenario given). And yes we wouldnt pick again til the 4th round. (so we miss out on picks in the second and third round)

 

Next draft we would only be missing a pick in the first round. I wouldnt call that missing a heart of the draft, you choose to say so, fine we disagree. I dont see either take as unreasonable I just dont agree with yours.

 

Also in this scenario, we would be getting DK metcalf, who I think is the exact type of receiver this offense is missing. So this isnt a trade up for one player a la Julio Jones, we would be getting DK as well, thus making these scenarios different.

 

 

 

 

You talk the way you talk. I'll talk the way I talk.

 

OK?

 

You've summed up the results perfectly. For one guy, we'd have traded away two firsts and two seconds, getting a (considerably better) first in return, when we don't have a third round pick that first year..

 

That's absolutely the heart of two drafts, in exchange for one player. Who, like it or not might turn out to be a Kevin White, Corey Davis, Mike Williams (from Clemson to the Chargers), John Ross, Drake London or a Sammy Watkins, though all of those guys were thought of quite a bit more highly than Brian Thomas.

 

Bray, I am sorry, though, I didn't see Metcalf in your original post. My fault.

 

But while I would like the results at WR, it would leave even larger gaps elsewhere because we'd be spending $49M on this year's cap for the WR combination of DK Metcalf and Stefon Diggs catching balls from Stroud. That's about 25% of our cap this year for two receivers, only one of whom is actually on the team.

 

IMO if you give up that treasure trove of picks, you're going to need your FA money to fill in the holes.

 

 

Edited April 5 by Thurman#1

[Warriorspikes51]

4 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Oh, agreed that Thomas Junior might be there. But he's just not worth giving up nearly that much for.

 

Not that that any non-QB is. But Thomas Jr. sure isn't.

you're not willing to trade 28, a 2025 2nd and a 4th  to move up to 16 for a dynamic WR?

[oldmanfan]

Beane has a plan.  He wouldn’t make a move like this without one.  And we’ll see it play out this month.

[Dillenger4]

2 minutes ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Very much this.

 

I'm sure he's got a plan. But it's unlikely to be the kind of huge splash folks on here would like it to be.

 

IMO it won't be trading for Aiyuk or someone of that sort, but my guess is that kind of move is more likely than the huge move in the draft so many here want.

 

Guess we'll see.

This is the truth. It will be an OBJ type signing for 1-year, cheapish and we keep our draft. Or, at most - Ayouk and we keep most of our draft.

[Warriorspikes51]

2 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

He was giving the nickname after he signed Miller, extended Diggs, traded up for Elam, signed OJ Howard & Roger Staffold.

pretty sure it was way before that.

Miller was great until he tore the acl  -  Not Beane's fault.
Diggs was great and earned the deal until whatever his issues are  - Not Beane's fault
 

The others I'll give you, although Elam could still turn into a quality player. 

[PBF81]

8 minutes ago, Bray Wyatt said:

 

First, we can have a conversation without all of the dramatics and condescension. 

 

If the scenario played out as the person I quoted stated I wouldnt be against that solution to our WR issue.

 

In this draft we would still have made a pick in the first (Brian Thomas in the scenario given). And yes we wouldnt pick again til the 4th round. (so we miss out on picks in the second and third round)

 

Next draft we would only be missing a pick in the first round. I wouldnt call that missing a heart of the draft, you choose to say so, fine we disagree. I dont see either take as unreasonable I just dont agree with yours.

 

Also in this scenario, we would be getting DK metcalf, who I think is the exact type of receiver this offense is missing. So this isnt a trade up for one player a la Julio Jones, we would be getting DK as well, thus making these scenarios different.

 

 

 

Historically Thurman's correct.  Trading up to get a WR is a fool's game.  I might do it for Harrison this year, because Allen's rotting on the vine only, but that won't be an option.  

 

Diminishing the value of next year's picks seems fine now, but next year we'd regret it unless that player shattered rookie expectations.  Beane's track record of that is zilch on top of it all.  

 

We currently only have two picks this year in the range of possibly getting NFL starters.  Selling the farm and reducing that to one isn't it best strategy.  

 

Beane needs to start hitting better on draft picks however.  

 

 

Edited April 5 by PBF81

[BeastMaster]

22 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

There are 3 WR's who are the top WR in most draft classes, plus BTJ who is probably the 2nd WR in most classes

Go after them if you have conviction on a specific player.   Enough playing around and being cautious 

BTJ hasn't shown much in terms of route running, making contested catches, or displaying toughness. He's raw as can be, and would likely need a couple years before becoming what you hope he would for what you gave up to draft him. He's tall and he's fast.

 

CeeDee Lamb and JJ went third and fourth in 2020, and Aiyuk went 6th. Pittman went in the 2nd round.

 

Stay at 28, and go back up in the second for another wideout in a deep class. In 2025, you have cap space and even better draft capital to reload with a young and talented roster that will contend for years with Josh in his prime

[Warriorspikes51]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

Historically Thurman's correct.  Trading up to get a WR is a fool's game.  I might do it for Harrison this year, because Allen's routing on the vine only, but that wouldn't be an option.  

 

Diminishing the value of next year's picks seems fine now, but next year we'd regret unless that player shattered rookie expectations.  Beane's track record of that is zilch on top of it all.  

 

We currently only have two picks this year in the range of possibly getting NFL starters.  Selling the farm and reducing that to one isn't it best strategy.  

 

Beane needs to start hitting better on draft picks however.  

 

 

the 4th and 5th rounders are in the range of potential starters.  Happens every year 

[uticaclub]

4 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

pretty sure it was way before that.

Miller was great until he tore the acl  -  Not Beane's fault.
Diggs was great and earned the deal until whatever his issues are  - Not Beane's fault
 

The others I'll give you, although Elam could still turn into a quality player. 

Miller was old and signed because we had spent obscene amount of cap space & draft capital on push rush & got nothing. 

 

We don't know what Diggs issues were. They could have been with Beane & management

Edited April 5 by uticaclub

[Warriorspikes51]

1 minute ago, BeastMaster said:

BTJ hasn't shown much in terms of route running, making contested catches, or displaying toughness. He's raw as can be, and would likely need a couple years before becoming what you hope he would for what you gave up to draft him. He's tall and he's fast.

 

CeeDee Lamb and JJ went third and fourth in 2020, and Aiyuk went 6th. Pittman went in the 2nd round.

 

Stay at 28, and go back up in the second for another wideout in a deep class. In 2025, you have cap space and even better draft capital to reload with a young and talented roster that will contend for years with Josh in his prime

 

Oh really?  Weird!  How did he manage to reel in 17 TD's this past season and have the 2nd highest contested catch rate of the top 12 receivers in the class?
 

Not to mention his drop % was 2nd lowest  

But yea...he's just tall and fast  🙄

[Blackbeard]

Either of two things will happen:

 

1.  Move up and take a solid, known #1 WR in the draft (fingers crossed they turn out as expected) .  OR

2.  Bring in a FA #1 and keep pic 28 and draft who knows who.

 

 

I Cannot see any other option, except a combination of both.

Edited April 5 by Blackbeard

[PBF81]

1 minute ago, BeastMaster said:

BTJ hasn't shown much in terms of route running, making contested catches, or displaying toughness. He's raw as can be, and would likely need a couple years before becoming what you hope he would for what you gave up to draft him. He's tall and he's fast.

 

CeeDee Lamb and JJ went third and fourth in 2020, and Aiyuk went 6th. Pittman went in the 2nd round.

 

Stay at 28, and go back up in the second for another wideout in a deep class. In 2025, you have cap space and even better draft capital to reload with a young and talented roster that will contend for years with Josh in his prime

 

Yeah, I caught that too on the nfl.com draft profile.  What's interesting is, for once, the diversity in the reviews of the top WRs in the draft across the spectrum of draft sites.  

 

Typically they all say similar things, probably because they all draw from the same two or three original sources that also seem to largely be in agreement.  But for the top WRs it's scattered this year.  

 

It gives pause about the talk about the WR class.  

 

 

5 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

the 4th and 5th rounders are in the range of potential starters.  Happens every year 

 

Not expectedly.  

 

Aka percentage wise.  

 

Mr. Irrelevant, Purdy.  But your not going to trade your day 1 & 2 picks for a dozen 7th rounders. 

 

Come on now, let's keep things in the realm of reasonability here.  

 

 

[Thurman#1]

15 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

you're not willing to trade 28, a 2025 2nd and a 4th  to move up to 16 for a dynamic WR?

 

 

Man, you frightened me there. I thought I'd misread the post. Went back and checked it. It's the 2024 1st rounder and the 2025 1st as well, plus the other picks.

 

For Brian Thomas, no I am not. Even throw in the right to pay Metcalf $18M and I'm not.

[PBF81]

8 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Oh really?  Weird!  How did he manage to reel in 17 TD's this past season and have the 2nd highest contested catch rate of the top 12 receivers in the class?
 

Not to mention his drop % was 2nd lowest  

But yea...he's just tall and fast  🙄

 

As to BJT, it's important to look at how these prospects played in the biggest of games and against competition that is destined for the NFL.

 

Based on the write-ups it's confusing what to make of BJT.  But he played exceedingly well in the bigger games.  

 

That's relevant.  

 

 

[oldmanfan]

16 minutes ago, PBF81 said:

 

Historically Thurman's correct.  Trading up to get a WR is a fool's game.  I might do it for Harrison this year, because Allen's rotting on the vine only, but that won't be an option.  

 

Diminishing the value of next year's picks seems fine now, but next year we'd regret it unless that player shattered rookie expectations.  Beane's track record of that is zilch on top of it all.  

 

We currently only have two picks this year in the range of possibly getting NFL starters.  Selling the farm and reducing that to one isn't it best strategy.  

 

Beane needs to start hitting better on draft picks however.  

 

 

Saying Allen is rotting on the vine is perhaps the most ridiculously hyperbolic statement made on this board in recent memory.

Edited April 5 by oldmanfan