CURTIS SAMUEL A BILL

[SoonerBillsFan]

7 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Man, you just want to convert everyone to positions other than the positions where they've found their footing and success in the NFL today, huh?

 

It's not about "needing some big guy". It's about where a player plays best.

 

Over the last number of seasons, Curtis Samuel has had 1042 snaps out of the Slot compared to 370 on the Boundary. He's someone who has burst off the line and gets open quickly in the short and intermediate passing game. He's tailor made there and has become the player he is there.

 

You don't take a guy who plays less than 40% on the Outside and tell him he lives there now.

You do with his skill set.  Just because a team was stupid enough to put him in a box,doesn't mean we have too.

 

Bradys offense needs 3-4 guys and a RB who can fit any position on the field at any time.  I wish fans would get this already. 

 

Imagine a defensive coordinators nightmare not knowing for sure on every play who X,Y or Z really was on any given play.

10 hours ago, Doc said:

 

Mostly this.  I'm not sure how physical he is to be able to beat the jam, but no CB is pressing him at the line with that speed.

For years Diggs beat the best off the line.  He isn't "big"  or overly fast.

[Doc]

25 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

For years Diggs beat the best off the line.  He isn't "big"  or overly fast.

 

Yup.  Speed and/or quickness and/or strength make DBs think twice about jamming WRs at the LOS.

[MAJBobby]

 

[BillsFanForever19]

12 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

You do with his skill set.  Just because a team was stupid enough to put him in a box,doesn't mean we have too.

 

Bradys offense needs 3-4 guys and a RB who can fit any position on the field at any time.  I wish fans would get this already. 

 

Imagine a defensive coordinators nightmare not knowing for sure on every play who X,Y or Z really was on any given play.

 

I don't understand.

 

On one hand, you're arguing that you put him at the X. On the other you're saying "Imagine a defensive coordinators nightmare not knowing for sure on every play who X,Y or Z really was on any given play".

 

I'm not advocating you never put him on the Boundary. I'm open to having him there from time to time. I'm simply saying where he's found success in the league is not there full time. You put him where he's succeeded. Samuel full time Outside is a projection and a gamble.

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 minute ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I don't understand.

 

On one hand, you're arguing that you put him at the X. On the other you're saying "Imagine a defensive coordinators nightmare not knowing for sure on every play who X,Y or Z really was on any given play".

 

I'm not advocating you never put him on the Boundary. I'm open to having him there from time to time. I'm simply saying where he's found success in the league is not there full time. You put him where he's succeeded. Samuel full time Outside is a projection and a gamble.

No it's not. Just because Washington were idiots doesn't make it that he is mainly a slot WR.

 

But I'm done arguing.

[Doc]

2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

I don't understand.

 

On one hand, you're arguing that you put him at the X. On the other you're saying "Imagine a defensive coordinators nightmare not knowing for sure on every play who X,Y or Z really was on any given play".

 

I'm not advocating you never put him on the Boundary. I'm open to having him there from time to time. I'm simply saying where he's found success in the league is not there full time. You put him where he's succeeded. Samuel full time Outside is a projection and a gamble.

I asked this, before but do you or anyone else know where Brady played Samuel the majority of the time when they were in Carolina in 2020?  That would be the best predictor. 

[Beck Water]

2 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

No it's not. Just because Washington were idiots doesn't make it that he is mainly a slot WR.

 

But I'm done arguing.

 

I believe it was posted Samuel played 70%-ish from the slot during his career best year to date, with Joe Brady as his OC in CAR

[Punching Bag]

Quote

Curtis Samuel averaged 9.08 mph within the first second of his routes in 2023 (i.e., his "burst"), 3rd-quickest in the NFL (min. 300 routes).

 

Bills wide receivers averaged a 7.95 mph burst last season, 29th in the NFL (Gabe Davis: 8.25 mph; Stefon Diggs: 7.73 mph).

 

I am curious of the other receivers we have now. Sorry if this was covered before.

 

 

 

[MrEpsYtown]

2 hours ago, Doc said:

I asked this, before but do you or anyone else know where Brady played Samuel the majority of the time when they were in Carolina in 2020?  That would be the best predictor. 

This site is cool: 

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/curtis-samuel/

 

For 2020 it has him in the slot 53% of the time. 

[Doc]

5 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

This site is cool: 

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/curtis-samuel/

 

For 2020 it has him in the slot 53% of the time. 

So 47% of the time outside. No reason it can’t go higher. 

[MrEpsYtown]

6 minutes ago, Doc said:

So 47% of the time outside. No reason it can’t go higher. 

 

Agreed. In Norv Turner's system in Carolina, before they hired Brady, Samuel was outside more. In 2019 he was only in the slot at a 22% rate, which is less than Stefon Diggs was in the slot this year. So this "Samuel is a slot only" thing is really just one of those PFF made-up recency bias-type things. 

 

Bottom line, Brady is going to move guys around all over the place and Samuel adds to the pile of playmaking ability. 

[GunnerBill]

14 minutes ago, Doc said:

So 47% of the time outside. No reason it can’t go higher. 

 

It can "go higher" but what he does best is win those short, quick catch and run routes. That is where he will be seen to best effect. You can run some of that from a wide alignment but you are going to run a lot more of it from the slot. 

[MrEpsYtown]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

It can "go higher" but what he does best is win those short, quick catch and run routes. That is where he will be seen to best effect. You can run some of that from a wide alignment but you are going to run a lot more of it from the slot. 

 

Agreed. But I do think it's going to be a mixed bag with Samuel. I think he will move al over the place. 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, MrEpsYtown said:

 

Agreed. But I do think it's going to be a mixed bag with Samuel. I think he will move al over the place. 

 

Yes he will. He isn't a Khalil Shakir who really you can only get value from in the slot. He is more actually of a comparison with the Ladd McConkey conversation we have been having around the draft. He can be a move receiver for you. But he isn't suddenly going to turn in to a vertical threat guy who beats press off the line and gets down the field and wins against physical corners. That isn't who he is. You don't need stats to see that you just need to watch him play. He is going to be most effective in the short and intermediate game and that means he is going to take his share of slot reps. 

[DJB]

10 hours ago, MAJBobby said:

 

For comparison 

 

 

[SoonerBillsFan]

3 hours ago, DJB said:

For comparison 

 

 

Samuel is a clear upgrade to Davis

[90sBills]

Samuel is going to have a breakout year. Does anyone know if Allen has met up/work out with Samuel yet? Or are they waiting until ota to get any work done?

[HappyDays]

 

[TheBeaneBandit]

1 hour ago, 90sBills said:

Samuel is going to have a breakout year. Does anyone know if Allen has met up/work out with Samuel yet? Or are they waiting until ota to get any work done?

Jesus neither are even in the same state right now 🤦🤦🤦

[90sBills]

9 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

Jesus neither are even in the same state right now 🤦🤦🤦

So that’s a negative. Cool. 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

13 hours ago, MrEpsYtown said:

This site is cool: 

 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/curtis-samuel/

 

For 2020 it has him in the slot 53% of the time. 

 

8 hours ago, Doc said:

So 47% of the time outside. No reason it can’t go higher. 

My takeaway is that Samuel isn't out dedicated outside burner. However, he *can* play there and be productive. I am imagining a 3WR set with him and a rookie in a condensed formation where you don't know if one is going to cut inside or not.

[Doc]

12 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

My takeaway is that Samuel isn't out dedicated outside burner. However, he *can* play there and be productive. I am imagining a 3WR set with him and a rookie in a condensed formation where you don't know if one is going to cut inside or not.

 

He was a ~50/50 guy in Brady's system.  Hollins seems like more of an outside guy.  I think it will start off with Diggs and Hollins outside and Samuel and Shakir in the slot and the rookie being brought along slowly.

[Doc]

 

And I like the speed he brings, which the Bills haven't seen since John Brown.  But Samuel is 5/8" taller and 17# heavier, as well as 2 years younger (when each joined the Bills).

[DJB]

 

I think Samuel is going to be the best #2 WR Josh has ever had . He may even be the best WR he’s had before Diggs arrived as well

[SoonerBillsFan]

5 hours ago, DJB said:

 

I think Samuel is going to be the best #2 WR Josh has ever had . He may even be the best WR he’s had before Diggs arrived as well

I was hoping for this guy from the start of FA.  Add an impact WR in this draft and watch what this offense does. 

[Don Otreply]

On 3/16/2024 at 9:30 PM, Shaw66 said:

I didn't say anything about the 85 Bears, and that's not what I meant.  

 

What it takes to win the Super Bowl is what the Chiefs did to the Bills in Buffalo in January:  Make it very difficult for a very good offense to score.   

 

Championship games these days are won by scoring in the high 20s and keeping a really good offense in the high teens or low 20s.   That's how most games go.   To be a champion, you have to hold down a really good offense, and the last two Bills losses to KC in the playoffs, the defense couldn't do it.  Offense did its part, but the defense didn't.  

 

It's only occasionally that the winner in those games wins by blowing the doors off the other team.  The defenses are two good.  Once in a while, yes, but as I said, it's not a sustainable model.   You win with effective offense that gets you into the high 20s and really tough defense that makes a good opponent struggle. 

 

The Bills might actually have had that kind of defense last season, with Milano and Bernard and Miller playing, but they didn't.  Now, if they all come back, they still are not yet in a position to have that kind of defense because they need help in the defensive backfield and on the D line.  

 

They had the offense last season, or were close, but if Dion getting pushed into Josh, and Samuel replacing Davis will make the offense better.  He's a more effective threat.  They need a center.   

 

Now, I'm not arguing for a first-round safety or center.  I don't know who's out there.  And Beane is always a surprise, so I have no expectations.   All I'm saying is the notion that the way to win is by constantly giving Josh more and more weapons isn't the way.  The Chiefs let Tyreek Hill walk and have never replaced him.   Josh had as many weapons last season as Mahomes had, at least until whatever it was happened to Diggs.  It's not about more weapons.  It's about effective weapons and tough-as-nails defense. 

   For the most part I agree with what you’re getting at, the flaw with the Bills defense is regardless of who we roster we play the same soft coverage / contain zone defense, that has its well noted flaws.  
   As to offensive weapons, a more dynamic #2 boundary guy with better hands would make the entire offense more effective, especially with the style of offense the Bills always seem to play, that is the missing piece.
   Yes we have a variety of perceived needs at various positions, but we tend to cut this particular corner when it comes to filling out the offense.
  We haven’t had nearly as dynamic a WR group since Brown and Beasley were playing well, it’s past time to fill that Brown spot on the roster, we have the slot well filled, again jmo. 

[Doc]

6 hours ago, DJB said:

 

I think Samuel is going to be the best #2 WR Josh has ever had . He may even be the best WR he’s had before Diggs arrived as well

 

I view him as a younger, faster and bigger John Brown.  His speed has been lacking for years now.  And Josh will by far be the best QB he's played with.

[Rockinon]

John Brown got vertical clearing out a safety for Beasley to do his work underneath. Sometimes he just caught some monster catches with his speed. Curtis Samuel is much more of a Swiss army knife. Can play out wide like Brown but also does a lot of stuff over the middle and out of the backfield. He runs like a running back and cuts so hard that defenders are juked right out of their socks. The only thing similar to Brown is the speed. Everyone is going to love what Curtis Samuel brings to the table. He is going to light it up with those crossing routes and V outs. Some of Josh's favorite throws.

 

Don't rule out simply handing the ball of to him either. He is an effective RB too.

Edited March 31 by Rockinon

[Shaw66]

36 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

   For the most part I agree with what you’re getting at, the flaw with the Bills defense is regardless of who we roster we play the same soft coverage / contain zone defense, that has its well noted flaws.  
   As to offensive weapons, a more dynamic #2 boundary guy with better hands would make the entire offense more effective, especially with the style of offense the Bills always seem to play, that is the missing piece.
   Yes we have a variety of perceived needs at various positions, but we tend to cut this particular corner when it comes to filling out the offense.
  We haven’t had nearly as dynamic a WR group since Brown and Beasley were playing well, it’s past time to fill that Brown spot on the roster, we have the slot well filled, again jmo. 

I have often made this argument- that a particular guy will make the whole offense - or defense - better and I get it.  I made it last year with Kincaid.  Samuel may very well be the guy this year.  

 

I think football is more about coachimg than talent.  You need a few a few studs for sure, but then it's about having good players and using them the right way.  The more I've thought about it, the more important I think the Samuel a question is. I think Brady told McBeane that Samuel I what he needs.

 

 

[3rdand12]

I too think this dude is going to change the offense , very much for the better. Broad skill sets and high level in most all of them.

Huge get by Beane.

lets hope he , Brady and Josh get on the same wavelength quickly and completely.

[Don Otreply]

24 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I have often made this argument- that a particular guy will make the whole offense - or defense - better and I get it.  I made it last year with Kincaid.  Samuel may very well be the guy this year.  

 

I think football is more about coachimg than talent.  You need a few a few studs for sure, but then it's about having good players and using them the right way.  The more I've thought about it, the more important I think the Samuel a question is. I think Brady told McBeane that Samuel I what he needs.

 

 

I agree that that coaching is very important, as an example, look at the UConn mens basketball team, Hurley has turned that program into a juggernaut. Having a group of the right guys is more important than having one guy who is elite, I believe that Samuel will be good, I also believe he will be even more effective with a quality #2 boundary guy forcing defenses to spread their coverage out over a larger area of the field, jmo.

[Rockinon]

The thing that I like most about his skill set is when he cuts, he's creating huge separation at the moment of that cut. Not only is this bad news for the CB covering him, it also doesn't give the safety time to get there in time. Samuel consistently gets open in that 10-20yd window that Josh loves. He is a guy that will beat that 2 deep safety look, not only with crossers and V outs, he can be moved inside, outside and run a play out of the backfield. And once he has the ball in his hands, he's a dynamic runner.

 

The Bills have consistently had a very good offense but they have not had a chess piece like this. The offense has not been good at fooling a defense, and Samuel could be the piece that keeps them on their heels more consistantly. Brady is going to move him around keeping the defense guessing and that is not only going to open up plays for Samuel, but for other skill players as well. I see the number of lethal weapons growing. Diggs, Cook, Kinkaid, Knox have all been productive. I see Samuel as a piece that diversifies what the offense can do. Opens up the play book.

 

It is obvious that Brady's fingerprints are on this signing. A sneaky good pick-up for the Bills. Samuel is a legit WR in this league, with some impressive traits.

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Don Otreply said:

I agree that that coaching is very important, as an example, look at the UConn mens basketball team, Hurley has turned that program into a juggernaut. Having a group of the right guys is more important than having one guy who is elite, I believe that Samuel will be good, I also believe he will be even more effective with a quality #2 boundary guy forcing defenses to spread their coverage out over a larger area of the field, jmo.

Hah!  You can take the boy out of Connecticut, but you can't take UConn out of the boy!  Who goes on a 30-0 run in the Elite Eight?

 

I often analogize to basketball, and I think football is much more of a coaching game than hoops.   As the number of players goes up, the complexity goes up, and the importance of individuals goes down.   I feel like I'm starting to see Brady's vision, which is Diggs, Samuel, Shakir, Cook, and Kincaid running slants, outs, crossers, deep crossers, corner routes all day long, and Josh finding and hitting the guy who has the mismatch or who gets leverage.   They'll get deep, too.  I think it's going to be fun.  I don't think it's necessary to add a #2, because all he will do is take one of those guys off the field.

 

And I'm not precluding a rookie receiver who can be the guy you're talking about, but I think having signed Samuel takes the pressure of Beane on day one of the draft.  And that rookie is not John Brown; he's a guy with good speed but who has brains and can run the routes that the other guys will be running.  .  

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

He was balling out with Washington w/ mediocre QB (Heineken was a gritty player though.) Samuel is gonna put up career numbers w/ Allen at the helm. I can’t wait. He’s a solid #2. I like the physicality he has plus he has some running ability. I hope they put him in a Deebo type role and get creative. 

[Warriorspikes51]

32 minutes ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

He was balling out with Washington w/ mediocre QB (Heineken was a gritty player though.) Samuel is gonna put up career numbers w/ Allen at the helm. I can’t wait. He’s a solid #2. I like the physicality he has plus he has some running ability. I hope they put him in a Deebo type role and get creative. 

 

I expect we'll use him in an all purpose role.  He'll be inside, outside, in motion and in the backfield.

Really happy with the acquisition. We got faster on offense and more unpredictable  

[Doc]

Add another legit outside WR and we're cooking with gas.

[Warriorspikes51]

22 minutes ago, Doc said:

Add another legit outside WR and we're cooking with gas.

The size and speed of BTJ or Xavier Legette would be ideal.  AD Mitchell could also be in that mix 

[YattaOkasan]

23 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I often analogize to basketball, and I think football is much more of a coaching game than hoops.   As the number of players goes up, the complexity goes up, and the importance of individuals goes down.     

Agree on importance of coaching being directly correlated with number of players.  But would also posit that coaching importance is also directly correlated with number of stoppages in the sport.  Football has a lot which allows lots of opportunity for direction.  If you can give better direction you will have an advantage.

[Don Otreply]

22 minutes ago, YattaOkasan said:

Agree on importance of coaching being directly correlated with number of players.  But would also posit that coaching importance is also directly correlated with number of stoppages in the sport.  Football has a lot which allows lots of opportunity for direction.  If you can give better direction you will have an advantage.

And there in lies the rub, 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, YattaOkasan said:

Agree on importance of coaching being directly correlated with number of players.  But would also posit that coaching importance is also directly correlated with number of stoppages in the sport.  Football has a lot which allows lots of opportunity for direction.  If you can give better direction you will have an advantage.

Excellent point. And coach can talk to the QB between plays.