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CURTIS SAMUEL A BILL


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Even if we stood pat right now, we'd be better at receiver heading into '24 than we were last season.

 

What's cool about that is that we're not going to stand pat.  This has potential to be the best WR corps of JA's career to this point.

 

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38 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Cole Beasley, with a dash of Emmanuel Sanders.  He's been playing mostly from the slot and is solid there, but his RB background makes him a harder RAC guy than Beasley was and he can play better than Beasley could when split out wide.  Probably less of a Football Savant than Beasley but I don't know on that.

 

 

Patience, Grasshopper.  Wait and see what the contract really is.

Yeah! I forgot about Emmanuel Sanders. That sounds about right. 

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43 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Of recent BILLS receivers who would Samuel compare to? Gabe Davis? John Brown? Robert Woods? Or who? 

Good question. I seem to recall we had a WR who was this type of RB/WR hybrid but can't come up with the name?  He wasn't as talented but similar build, not as fast.

Could be I'm just old and thinking of someone not on the Bills...

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2 minutes ago, TPS said:

Good question. I seem to recall we had a WR who was this type of RB/WR hybrid but can't come up with the name?  He wasn't as talented but similar build, not as fast.

Could be I'm just old and thinking of someone not on the Bills...

Found it on football reference--Josh Reed.   He was actually more talented than I remember.

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51 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Of recent BILLS receivers who would Samuel compare to? Gabe Davis? John Brown? Robert Woods? Or who? 

Percy Harvin at his peak, i.e. minus the injuries...

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Just now, The Red King said:

Love this move.  Now draft a speed demon WR to stretch the field and with Allen's cannon arm he can suddenly threaten anywhere on the field.  Would be very tough to defend.

 

 1 of these 4

 

Thomas  4.33  

Legette 4.39 


AD Mitchell 4.34

Worthy 4.21

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10.7 yds a catch for his career I rather have Shakir on the field then Samuel . He's not explosive neither is he elite in any way shape or form. We needed a true X Wr but settled for another slot guy. 

 

Shakir averages 15.6 yds a catch and Samuel 9.9 I don't care what u say about the QBs . 80% of Wrs in the NFL can say the same thing. 

 

Here's a stat that will blow your mind Shakir had the same yds this season as Samuel on 45 less targets. Wow . 

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3 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I'd add Troy Franklin to the mix too, but with that list I feel comfortable waiting for 28 or even moving back a bit.

I’m actually liking the Ladd McConkey pick now more. His release off the line and initial 10 yard burst in his routes is elite. If you watch his highlights, he’s the fastest off the snap and quickest up the field… add in that he reads the defense and finds pockets to catch the ball, this dude may be it for us

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19 minutes ago, Success said:

Even if we stood pat right now, we'd be better at receiver heading into '24 than we were last season.

 

What's cool about that is that we're not going to stand pat.  This has potential to be the best WR corps of JA's career to this point.

 


This is such an indictment of last years room, but I think you’re correct.

 

Diggs = Diggs

Shakir = Shakir

Samuel > Davis 

Hollins > Harty

 

Diggs is a year older, but Shakir entering Year 3 should be coming into his own.  Gabe Davis is a solid WR, but not what we need .. his skillset is just far too inconsistent and limited in the passing game.  Hollins isn’t anything amazing, but he is a big target down the field who is capable of making a few catches per game if you need him.

 

We’re an early round WR investment away from having a room with the potential to exceed the Diggs, Beasley, Sanders, Davis year. 

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It is okay if Samuel plays a Beasley type role for the Bills. I know many want to turn him into this #2 threat that is an upgrade over Davis and game changer. But that is not likely what this move is. Unless he breaks out after 7 years in the league and completely changes his game. Hey, that could happen I guess. 

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1 hour ago, BillsVet said:

 

Late-career Cam, the now-retired Bridgewater, and Sam Howell versus Josh Allen.  

 

Think Shakir's QB is the same as the aforementioned 3 QB's Samuel's played with.  As in, their production being similar is the comparison?  

 

If you do, then it's time to head back to the Sabres Board. 

Does the QB matter, but nearly as much as a player’s role in the offense.  Last season, Shakir, as out 4th WR/TE option equalled Samuel’s production on  50% of the targets.  Do you really think that Samuel will get 90+ targets in Buffalo like he did in Wash with Shakir, Kincaid and Diggs already in the offense? If you do I have a bridge to sell you in Brooklyn.  Everyone keeps saying with Josh as his QB his number will explode.  They won’t because his targets are likely to fall dramatically because he’s now at best the 4th best option instead of a top 2 or 3 option.  So could his YAC/R improve? Maybe.  Will his yards/r improve?  Maybe, but probably not significantly.  Even when playing with Brady as OC before his yards/r was 11.1 vs his career of 10.7.

 

So how many targets can Samuel expect in our offense?  As the 4th TE/WR option and during Josh’s tenure over the last 5 seasons, the 4th option averaged 54 catches a season.  The 3rd option averaged 66.  
 

So let’s give Samuel the benefit of the doubt.  In our offense, matching his career best in catch % (79) and yard/r (12.7), and getting 3rd option targets, we can hope for about 660 yards.  What is more likely is he’ll have about 54 targets, convert at near his career rate of 65.4% and gain near his career yards/r of 10.7 for a total of 378 yards.  Is that really worth $8 mill?  
 

The best case scenario for Samuel in this offense is that they move Shakir to the boundary, make Samuel the starting slot receiver and reduce Digg’s targets 30-40 from the 160 he’s averaged over the last 4 years.  Samuel would still be the 4th option but have a better chance of giving the Bills 600 yards.  However, Kincaid and Shakir will see more targets as well, especially when Brady begins to use Kincaid in a Kelce kind of role. 
 

I know people are excited about a big $ WR signing, but instead of whining at me for disagreeing with the group think that Samuel is the second coming, take some friggin time, research the stats, be honest about his potential role in the offense, and then do the math as I have.  

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11 minutes ago, ngbills said:

It is okay if Samuel plays a Beasley type role for the Bills. I know many want to turn him into this #2 threat that is an upgrade over Davis and game changer. But that is not likely what this move is. Unless he breaks out after 7 years in the league and completely changes his game. Hey, that could happen I guess. 

 

I get the comparison to Beasley... He's LIKE Beasley, but he will be able to do so many other things for you do to speed.  John Brown Like Bubble screen type stuff.. Lil Dirty type stuff... at times run out of the backfield. Catch out of the backfield.  He's also not a Debo... but he can do a lot more things.. So just comparing him to Beasley does not do this guy justice. 

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I hope the Bills can finagle enough money under the cap now to sign a starting caliber safety.  I like the signing.  Samuel has a bit higher drop ratio than I like, but he's got a broad skill set.  I think he can play inside or outside, and can be a gadget player as well.  His speed is probably the best on the team, though he and Isabella would probably have a pretty tight competition.  He can stretch the field in any case.  

 

 

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