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Cover 1's Top Free Agent Fits for the Bills


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3 minutes ago, boyst said:

you forogt McKenzie


Absolutely. Lil Dirty. Gotta get him back here so that we can run two jet sweeps a game.

I'd also look into bringing Isaiah Hodgins back if the Giants release him. I'd like to see if we can get him on the practice squad for another four seasons or so.

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11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They played most of this season with Tyrel Dodson starting at linebacker and a revolving door of characters coming in and out of the secondary and they were a top 10 defense. They need some pieces there but beyond one safety they are not pieces I think they should be dedicating a lot of $$s to. 

 

My plan is make a safety your 1 first wave of free agency move - but don't pay top of the market there will be 8-10 serviceable vet starters out there. And I'd try again in the June market for a vet pass rusher with the money I'd save by cutting the corpse of Von Miller's career. I don't think the Bills will do that though, Von will likely be here, so safety would be my only reasonably sized contract. They will need some lower value Dline depth pieces but I'm talking contracts of the level that they don't get comp pick formula consideration (not saying the comp pick formula should be be all and end all by the way, that is just a proxy for the value level I'm talking in terms of those backups.

 

If I was making a second move in the initial free agency wave it would be a vet receiver. DJ Chark, Josh Reynolds, maybe Kendrick Bourne. Someone in that sort of tier. 

 

I'd probably pass on the vet route though and be trying to get two viable receivers from the draft though. Ideally I want someone with #1 receiver ceiling early and then someone late with some inside/outside flex who can be what Gabe was his first two years here and be your first guy in off the bench who knows all three spots. 

 

 

Yeah I am not nearly as panicked about the defensive vacancies as some.   It's two-fold........I think they can still be coached up and young-player-developed to be top 10 again........and if it doesn't turn out that good I am also willing to fall back toward the middle for one season if it means turning the offense into a much more efficient machine.   I wasn't worried about the MLB position last year and that turned out even better than I thought so I tend to lean more to the likelihood that they can still get to top 10 without spending much in FA.

 

And I agree that "on paper" it makes sense to pass on veteran WR's.

 

 But that's all well and good until the 1st round rookie tears an ACL in minicamp and you got NOTHING outside but Justin Shorter.

 

Not having insurance at that boundary WR position and then having to have Allen pound the rock 9-10 times again next year just to hopefully clinch a playoff spot in week 17(again) would be a grave injustice to Allen's career.

 

The risk of that happening is not worth the cap savings.  

 

When they didn't address this boundary WR need in either of the prior 2 offseasons they left themselves with zero margin for error this offseason, IMO.    I hate to even throw $5M-$6M gtd money at a Josh Reynolds type but that boundary WR position is not as easy to address as MLB or Safety.   There probably ISN'T one of those waiting to emerge from spots 48-53 or the practice squad.  

 

Like I said when they signed Sharty and Sherfield last year........their relatively long histories said they were NOT going to produce........and sure enough, they did not.  

 

The Bills need someone with more than one season where they weren't otherwise trash.

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7 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

A quality WR2 is going to get a $12-15 million per year contract. You could push some of that into the future, but then 2025-26 become worse cap years. 
 

I don’t think Bills have cap space to sign a quality WR2, and other minor FA pickups or resigning (DL, S). 
 

Bills could sign a lesser quality FA WR, which is what I think they do. 

 

 

I never said they would get a "quality WR2".    None of the guys Cover 1 mentioned are "quality WR2's".

 

Those players all have a combination of potential to possibly produce 600-800 yards AND some actual solid past production to prove it.   Hence "high ceiling".

 

Those guys aren't all going to get $12M-$15M.   Some are going to get $5M to $9M to "prove" they are worth more next year........figures which the Bills can dice up with void years like they did with the Leonard Floyd contract.

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6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You have this wrong, at least for the bulk of this board because you are missing the point that most people understand Beane can't really (and likely isn't) spending big on a WR in free agency, and that we will certainly address WR in this deep WR draft where we have like 10 picks to land probably 2 prospects with one early and another in the mid rounds.  

 

We don't have the cap luxury of going out and paying a top FA WR.  So its not at all that people are concerned with "patching" holes to ignore WR, its that we can patch a lot of those other holes cheaply in FA elsewhere and aggressively address WR in the draft as well as other young talent to hopefully compete or develop into starters at those other patch spots.

 

And not only is that what everyone else is thinking, that is almost certainly exactly what is going to happen.  Beane is not spending big on a FA WR...we are MUCH more likely to sign someone like a Noah Brown than a Mike Evans then go get a WR in round 1 or 2 depending on how the draft falls and probably another between rounds 3 and 5 again depending on the board falls.  

 

Free Agency should be to "patch" holes then you look for your young big upside talent in the draft and hope you find someone that both contributes this year and develops into a succession plan for Diggs. 

 

 

Nah, man.

 

Who said Beane was "spending big" on anything in free agency?

 

Not me.

 

 Noah Brown is very much the type that I am talking about.   But if you think Noah Brown is signing after the draft for $1.7M you are crazy.   That's a $5M-$9M type contract and likely done in the 6 weeks prior to the draft most likely.  

 

Just because boundary WR should be the #1 priority in both UFA and the draft doesn't mean that they can't sign another $7M Emmanuel Sanders type to serve as the hedge against a very wide range of potentially unsatisfactory outcomes with only a rookie or a Sherfield type at on the boundary.    

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9 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

 

As we learned with Harry and Sherfield that signing a vet, even one who produced elsewhere, is no guarantee of success.  

 

 

 

Harty and Sherfield produced elsewhere?  

 

Uh, no they did not.

 

You were clearly mistaken for thinking that.  

 

Some of you guys took the cheese that was put out there by the Bills about their "potential" instead of looking at the fact that their career receiving yardage averages were 198 and 169 per season! :lol:

 

Now you are using that false premise to advance a philosophy about not signing players who produce because they may turn into Sharty or Sherfield?  :rolleyes:

 

 

 

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On 2/23/2024 at 12:24 AM, GASabresIUFan said:

Why bring in any of these guys? What do they bring but a waste of limited cap $.  Could they out outperform the nothing we got from Harty, Sherfield, and Isabella?  Sure they could, but so could a 4th or 5th rd draft pick.  Shorter is already here and is aleady a cost-controlled option.  

 

I'd much rather have Diggs, a top draft pick, and Shakir as the top 3. and then let Shorter, Hamler and another draft pick fight it out for the 4th and 5th slots.  Long-term we'd be much better off if Shorter and/or another similar draft pick emerge as a threat just like 5th rd pick Shakir did last year.  I just don't see how adding another 1-year castoff makes us better.  We need to fix the D Line and safety depth before wasting FA $ on a 4th or 5th WR.

 

I gotta agree with @BADOLBILZ on this one.

 

We can do both of what he's suggesting and what you are suggesting. And we should.

 

Even though we kept only 5 WR's last season, the usual number is 6. There was even a year where we kept 7. I suspect we'll be taking the out in Harty's contract. Leaving us with just Diggs, Shakir, and Shorter.

 

Draft the WR2 in Round 1. Most likely Thomas Jr., Franklin, Coleman, or Legette. Draft another in Round 4, maybe even use some of our extra picks to trade back up into Round 3 if there's someone sticking out.

 

But also sign a veteran with experience to go along with the Rookies. As good as the Rookies look in this class, there's no guarantee that they'll hit and hit immediately.

 

You pointed out some great guys in the past number of Drafts. But there's also been the Treylon Burks and Quentin Johnston's of the world in Round 1 in the past 2 Drafts. As good as I feel about some of the guys in the Draft, the entire makeup of our WR core cannot be Diggs, Shakir, and 3 guys who have a combined 0 reps at the Pro Level and a guy like Hamler, who is on his 3rd team in less than a year for a reason. He'll be this year's Andy Isabella. Regardless of what he does in Camp, we can easily get him back on the Practice Squad with the stink he has on him now, just as we did with Isabella.

 

Yes, Harty and Sherfield were underwhelming. But that doesn't mean that any veteran WR that isn't a Superstar is destined to be the same in this Offense. A guy like Brown or Reynolds, who have done good things with lesser QB's, can flourish with Allen and at the very least provide insurance and more reliability at the reserve WR role than we've gotten with Harty and Sherfield.

 

And with the higher than expected bump in Salary Cap, we can do everything you suggested doing with the money when you made this post and still sign a guy like Brown or Reynolds.

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14 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Harty and Sherfield produced elsewhere?  

I love how you used averages instead of the actual stats.  Sherfield had 30 catches for 417 yards a Miami in 2022 and Harty had 570 yards on 36 catches for NO in 2021.  So yes these guys produced elsewhere in depth roles.  Had we received that kind of production from them, it might have helped us win a few more games.

 

However, you also proved my point.  We spent 4.1 on Harty and 1.78 on Sherfield last season. What a waste of limited cap space. Practice squad players could have given us similar results.  Time to stop shopping at Bargain Mart, but to draft and develop our own WRs.  

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23 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Think we could afford RBs Elliott & Johnson, WRs N. Brown and Reynolds, DT D. Jones, DE Epenesa, and S Chin?

No.  Even with the cap increase the Bills still need to watch their pocket book this year and next until they are out from under Diggs , Knox and especially Miller. 
 

Last year I think McGovern was our biggest FA signing.  Hopefully the bump in cap allows Beane to make two McGovern level signings (Jones & Chinn?).  
 

Even with the cap jump, the Bills are still 35+ over the cap.  They also really only have about 30-35 players who you can project to next year’s roster depending on how some of the kids develop. 
 

If you clear 70 million off the off the cap, that leaves about 35 million to fill approximately 20 roster holes.  Assuming 6-7 guys from the draft make the team (cost about $10 million), they leaves 25 million for 14 players.  That’s about 1.7-1.8 per player.  That what we paid Sherfield last year. 

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3 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I love how you used averages instead of the actual stats.  Sherfield had 30 catches for 417 yards a Miami in 2022 and Harty had 570 yards on 36 catches for NO in 2021.  So yes these guys produced elsewhere in depth roles.  Had we received that kind of production from them, it might have helped us win a few more games.

 

However, you also proved my point.  We spent 4.1 on Harty and 1.78 on Sherfield last season. What a waste of limited cap space. Practice squad players could have given us similar results.  Time to stop shopping at Bargain Mart, but to draft and develop our own WRs.  

 

 

I'm glad you like that I use common sense.........but what you should be taking away from Harty/Sherfield is that one modest outlier season out of 5 or 6 does not equate to "producing elsewhere" or indicate untapped talent.

 

I made this point when we signed those two turds.    I pointed to Andre Holmes as an example of Bills fans getting suckered into thinking that the ONE season in a long career where a player did something indicated there was so much more there to be had.   Robert Foster is another good Bills example.

 

People didn't want to hear it........but it was true and played out like I expected.    Sherfield literally put up 87 yards in 2021.......had his 400 yard season with Miami.......and then had 86 yards the next season with Buffalo.    That's what he is........a low production, special teams depth receiver.   He's only had 2 seasons out of 7 where he's even gotten to 100 yards.:lol:   

 

And no, I didn't make your point.   You were just wrong.   Harty was a terrible signing.   He hadn't done anything to warrant that pay.   The players that Cover 1 are talking about as potential targets are all legitimate, proven productive NFL wide receivers.   Not stars........but guys you can expect to be able to utilize regularly as a legit boundary option in a Diggs/Kincaid/Shakir lead pass game.   

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1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

And no, I didn't make your point.   You were just wrong.   Harty was a terrible signing.   He hadn't done anything to warrant that pay.   The players that Cover 1 are talking about as potential targets are all legitimate, proven productive NFL wide receivers.   Not stars........but guys you can expect to be able to utilize regularly as a legit boundary option in a Diggs/Kincaid/Shakir lead pass game.   

That is my point.  Time to stop wasting money on bargain mart players.  Time to draft and develop our own depth.

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On 2/22/2024 at 6:33 AM, dpberr said:
  • No one 30 or older.  I wouldn't even go for 29 year old players.
  • No one who missed 50% or more games last year.

The list should start with that group of players.  Then you look at production.  The Bills have to get out of the business of old players this year.  

 

 

 

 

I would rather take on a 30/31 year old on a one-year rental whose been healthy to fill in a role than take on a younger player whose constantly hurt. I agree the Bills need a bit of a youth movement, particularly at D-line and safety but I also don't think you don't want to bring back productive vets on manageable contracts to "hold the fort" while you bring rookies up to speed. 

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21 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Nah, man.

 

Who said Beane was "spending big" on anything in free agency?

 

Not me.

 

 Noah Brown is very much the type that I am talking about.   But if you think Noah Brown is signing after the draft for $1.7M you are crazy.   That's a $5M-$9M type contract and likely done in the 6 weeks prior to the draft most likely.  

 

Just because boundary WR should be the #1 priority in both UFA and the draft doesn't mean that they can't sign another $7M Emmanuel Sanders type to serve as the hedge against a very wide range of potentially unsatisfactory outcomes with only a rookie or a Sherfield type at on the boundary.    


Maybe I misunderstood you.  I read your post as if you were mocking people for picking other players to patch holes during FA rather than sign a big time WR.

 

And my counter to that was to that is because this is a WR rich draft and we are much more likely to pursue that big WR upgrade in the draft than FA.

 

Although since then, the cap came out even higher than expected, so maybe it makes Beane more interested in a pricier WR FA.  But still think it’s most likely gonna come from the draft.

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On 2/22/2024 at 8:46 AM, TheWeatherMan said:

Defense is going to get annihilated by good offenses regardless of who you sign or draft.   I’d go all offense in FA and Draft, only add defense vis UDFA’s and bargain bin FA’s excepting vet minimum.  Way too much money invested in this defense that folds every post season.  

Does your answer really help Bills No get Annihilated or just save money because they are going to get annihilated anyways lol

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4 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

That is my point.  Time to stop wasting money on bargain mart players.  Time to draft and develop our own depth.

 

I don't understand how you can't grasp this. We WILL be doing that.

 

We have to replace half of our WR core. We'll be Drafting 2 WR's, using our 1st Round Pick to fill our hole at WR2.

 

But to say Draft all 3 of them would be to have 4/6 of our WR Core next year having a combined ZERO reps of Regular Season NFL action. That's entirely too risky.

 

You might be fine with that, but there's no chance Brandon Beane (or any NFL GM) would be cool with having 4/6 of his WR core being complete unknowns at the next level. Having even half of the core with no experience represents the absolute top end of what a GM would do. And Cover 1, @BADOLBILZ, and myself are already calling for that.

 

To your point of Draft and Develop, with the 2 Draft Picks along with Shakir and Shorter - that would represent 4 of our 6 WR's being players that we Drafted and will be developing or have developed already.

 

But we need someone with experience and known production to provide insurance to the unknowns and also provide more productivity in the reserve role than Sherfield or Harty provided. As well as provide someone who can be trusted in the event of injury.

 

Noah Brown or Josh Reynolds aren't "bargain bin". They're a step above that. Neither will come as cheap as Sherfield was and they're better players. Not so much that it's going to hamper us, but not so little that they can be considered "bargain bin".

 

This idea that unless it's a super expensive WR1 or a Draft Pick, it's a waste of resources and is destined to provide nothing is incredibly simple minded. Just bc Sherfield or Harty didn't work out doesn't immediately equate to a Brown or Reynolds being the same. Especially since they're better players.

 

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:


Maybe I misunderstood you.  I read your post as if you were mocking people for picking other players to patch holes during FA rather than sign a big time WR.

 

And my counter to that was to that is because this is a WR rich draft and we are much more likely to pursue that big WR upgrade in the draft than FA.

 

Although since then, the cap came out even higher than expected, so maybe it makes Beane more interested in a pricier WR FA.  But still think it’s most likely gonna come from the draft.

 

Again, I don't think anyone's suggesting we don't Draft a WR in Round 1. Or that we sign a big ticket FA WR (we really can't).

 

But we can't fill all 3 of our holes at WR with just Draft Picks and have everyone on our WR core not named Diggs or Shakir combining to a total of 0 regular season snaps.

 

It's not a situation of us having to do one thing or the other. Draft 2, sign 1.

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23 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah I am not nearly as panicked about the defensive vacancies as some.   It's two-fold........I think they can still be coached up and young-player-developed to be top 10 again........and if it doesn't turn out that good I am also willing to fall back toward the middle for one season if it means turning the offense into a much more efficient machine.   I wasn't worried about the MLB position last year and that turned out even better than I thought so I tend to lean more to the likelihood that they can still get to top 10 without spending much in FA.

 

And I agree that "on paper" it makes sense to pass on veteran WR's.

 

 But that's all well and good until the 1st round rookie tears an ACL in minicamp and you got NOTHING outside but Justin Shorter.

 

Not having insurance at that boundary WR position and then having to have Allen pound the rock 9-10 times again next year just to hopefully clinch a playoff spot in week 17(again) would be a grave injustice to Allen's career.

 

The risk of that happening is not worth the cap savings.  

 

When they didn't address this boundary WR need in either of the prior 2 offseasons they left themselves with zero margin for error this offseason, IMO.    I hate to even throw $5M-$6M gtd money at a Josh Reynolds type but that boundary WR position is not as easy to address as MLB or Safety.   There probably ISN'T one of those waiting to emerge from spots 48-53 or the practice squad.  

 

Like I said when they signed Sharty and Sherfield last year........their relatively long histories said they were NOT going to produce........and sure enough, they did not.  

 

The Bills need someone with more than one season where they weren't otherwise trash.

Sharty  lol

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1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I don't understand how you can't grasp this. We WILL be doing that.

 

We have to replace half of our WR core. We'll be Drafting 2 WR's, using our 1st Round Pick to fill our hole at WR2.

 

But to say Draft all 3 of them would be to have 4/6 of our WR Core next year having a combined ZERO reps of Regular Season NFL action. That's entirely too risky.

 

You might be fine with that, but there's no chance Brandon Beane (or any NFL GM) would be cool with having 4/6 of his WR core being complete unknowns at the next level. Having even half of the core with no experience represents the absolute top end of what a GM would do. And Cover 1, @BADOLBILZ, and myself are already calling for that.

 

To your point of Draft and Develop, with the 2 Draft Picks along with Shakir and Shorter - that would represent 4 of our 6 WR's being players that we Drafted and will be developing or have developed already.

 

But we need someone with experience and known production to provide insurance to the unknowns and also provide more productivity in the reserve role than Sherfield or Harty provided. As well as provide someone who can be trusted in the event of injury.

 

Noah Brown or Josh Reynolds aren't "bargain bin". They're a step above that. Neither will come as cheap as Sherfield was and they're better players. Not so much that it's going to hamper us, but not so little that they can be considered "bargain bin".

 

This idea that unless it's a super expensive WR1 or a Draft Pick, it's a waste of resources and is destined to provide nothing is incredibly simple minded. Just bc Sherfield or Harty didn't work out doesn't immediately equate to a Brown or Reynolds being the same. Especially since they're better players.

 

 

Again, I don't think anyone's suggesting we don't Draft a WR in Round 1. Or that we sign a big ticket FA WR (we really can't).

 

But we can't fill all 3 of our holes at WR with just Draft Picks and have everyone on our WR core not named Diggs or Shakir combining to a total of 0 regular season snaps.

 

It's not a situation of us having to do one thing or the other. Draft 2, sign 1.

 

Maybe you meant this for someone else, because I have said all along we are going to likely sign one, possibly 2 vet WR FA's.  What I have said is I do not think we will be signing any of the top WR targets like a Mike Evans that gets mentioned so often here, unless of course one of them wants to play here cheap for a ring.  But Mike already has a ring, so I doubt he goes anywhere cheap to chase a ring.  

 

The impact player at WR is going to be someone we target via the draft.  And I do think its possible we draft 2 WR's given that this is a rich draft, Diggs is getting up in age, and any vet FA signings are likely to be short contracts.  

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1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Maybe you meant this for someone else, because I have said all along we are going to likely sign one, possibly 2 vet WR FA's.  What I have said is I do not think we will be signing any of the top WR targets like a Mike Evans that gets mentioned so often here, unless of course one of them wants to play here cheap for a ring.  But Mike already has a ring, so I doubt he goes anywhere cheap to chase a ring.  

 

The impact player at WR is going to be someone we target via the draft.  And I do think its possible we draft 2 WR's given that this is a rich draft, Diggs is getting up in age, and any vet FA signings are likely to be short contracts.  

 

I must have misunderstood your post. 

 

I took that you were saying what the other poster was, in that if it we can't get one of those top level FA's (and we can't), that we're better off just Drafting. 

 

I didn't realize you were simply speaking to WR2 and were open to signing a vet or vets to fill out the core, unlike the other poster I was replying to. My apologies.

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On 2/22/2024 at 9:06 AM, TheyCallMeAndy said:

To piggy back off this, the best, most consistent players we have on defense were not big FAs or first/second round picks.

 

Milano - R5

Bernard - R3

Hyde - Not a top tier FA

Poyer - Wasn’t even considered a good player when we signed him. 

Jones - Solid, but not a top tier FA

Benford - R6

Douglas - Really struggled early in his career, R3 pick traded. 
Dodson - UDFA 

Johnson - R4 

Epenesa - R2

 

Ed looked good last year, but took 2-3 years to develop.

 

Groot looks good. 
 

Edmunds took 2-3 years to develop into a game manager MLB. 

 

Never heard a position other than QB called a game manager 😂

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5 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:


Maybe I misunderstood you.  I read your post as if you were mocking people for picking other players to patch holes during FA rather than sign a big time WR.

 

And my counter to that was to that is because this is a WR rich draft and we are much more likely to pursue that big WR upgrade in the draft than FA.

 

Although since then, the cap came out even higher than expected, so maybe it makes Beane more interested in a pricier WR FA.  But still think it’s most likely gonna come from the draft.

We need cheap 4-5 year drafted wr prospects that can be developed into WR1/WR2. Shakir already looks promising.  Stop chasing established vet FA WRs.  Mooney is the only one I'm remotely interested in if under 9M/ yr. Draft 2 this April and more next year. Wait for Miller, Diggs & Knox to come off the books.

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19 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

don't understand how you can't grasp this. We WILL be doing that.

 

We have to replace half of our WR core. We'll be Drafting 2 WR's, using our 1st Round Pick to fill our hole at WR2.

 

But to say Draft all 3 of them would be to have 4/6 of our WR Core next year having a combined ZERO reps of Regular Season NFL action. That's entirely too risky.

 

You might be fine with that, but there's no chance Brandon Beane (or any NFL GM) would be cool with having 4/6 of his WR core being complete unknowns at the next level. Having even half of the core with no experience represents the absolute top end of what a GM would do. And Cover 1, @BADOLBILZ, and myself are already calling for that.

 

To your point of Draft and Develop, with the 2 Draft Picks along with Shakir and Shorter - that would represent 4 of our 6 WR's being players that we Drafted and will be developing or have developed already.

 

But we need someone with experience and known production to provide insurance to the unknowns and also provide more productivity in the reserve role than Sherfield or Harty provided. As well as provide someone who can be trusted in the event of injury.

 

Noah Brown or Josh Reynolds aren't "bargain bin". They're a step above that. Neither will come as cheap as Sherfield was and they're better players. Not so much that it's going to hamper us, but not so little that they can be considered "bargain bin".

 

This idea that unless it's a super expensive WR1 or a Draft Pick, it's a waste of resources and is destined to provide nothing is incredibly simple minded. Just bc Sherfield or Harty didn't work out doesn't immediately equate to a Brown or Reynolds being the same. Especially since they're better players.

I don't understand how you and others think there is $6 million floating around to pay a Reynolds or Brown to be our 4th receiver.  They aren't going anywhere to be a 4 and it's a waste for Buffalo with so many other needs and limited cap space.  Diggs and Shakir are the 1 & 3.  We will be using a high pick at WR.  That player is the 2 replacing Davis.  The Bills only carry 5 WRs, thus after those 3 you are not investing $6 million or more in a 4th string wideout.  The Bills already have Shorter in development, plus Isabella and Hamler as futures/reserve contracts.   Is it possible that Beane finds a veteran for a $2 Million prove-it contract to come in and compete with Shorter, Hamler, and a later draft pick for a job?  Sure it's possible, but don't expect that player that player to be on Reynolds' level.  Spotrac projects Reynolds contract at $7 million and Brown at 5.6.    I will give you one name that could come cheap, has talent, is young, and produced decently before last season and that is Chase Claypool.  

 

GMs, even good ones, go with inexperienced WR groups.  GB's top 4 WRs and top 2 TEs last year were all 1st and 2nd-year players and they out-performed the Bills' group.  

Edited by GASabresIUFan
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On 2/24/2024 at 11:04 PM, GASabresIUFan said:

I don't understand how you and others think there is $6 million floating around to pay a Reynolds or Brown to be our 4th receiver.  He isn't going anywhere to be a 4 and it's a waste for Buffalo with so many other needs and limited cap space.  Diggs and Shakir are the 1 & 3.  We will be using a high pick at WR.  That player is the 2 replacing Davis.  The Bills only carry 5 WRs, thus after those 3 you are not investing $6 million or more in a 4th string wideout.  The Bills already have Shorter in development, plus Isabella and Hamler as futures/reserve contracts.   Is it possible that Beane finds a veteran for a $2 Million prove-it contract to come in and compete with Shorter, Hamler, and a later draft pick for a job?  Sure it's possible, but don't expect that player that player to be on Reynolds' level.  Spotrac projects Reynolds contract at $7 million and Brown at 5.6.    I will give you one name that could come cheap, has talent, is young, and produced decently before last season and that is Chase Claypool.  

 

GMs, even good ones, go with inexperienced WR groups.  GB's top 4 WRs and top 2 TEs last year were all 1st and 2nd-year players and they out-performed the Bills' group.  

 

The Bills only carried 5 WR's last season. And that lack of depth was a mistake that bit us. Especially at Outside WR. 5 WR's was an anomaly. Done to keep extra Defensive Lineman we had under contract (something we will not have this season). Under McDermott here is the number we've gone into Week 1 with for each season:

 

2023 - 5
2022 - 7
2021 - 7
2020 - 6
2019 - 6
2018 - 7
2017 - 6

 

I absolutely do not see us carrying anything less than 6 this season. Shorter will be on the 53 and I already have him factored in.

 

Isabella and Hamler are Practice Squad guys. Hamler is on his 3rd team in less than a year. Like Isabella before him, there's a bust stink on him at this point that a good Pre-Season will not change when it comes to teams signing players from other teams to their 53. Futures/Reserve signings are on the level of UDFA's. Guys you bring into Camp and maybe they earn a spot on the Practice Squad. But former 2nd Round Picks or not - they are nothing that Beane is counting on when filling out the Roster.

 

Noah Brown was the 4th WR on the Texans last season, behind Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and Robert Woods. So while I can see some logic in someone signing Reynolds to be an unquestioned WR2 - I don't understand thinking Brown isn't a possibility. And as for Reynolds, everyone sort of agrees his figure on Spotrac is a little high. And it's less than insane to think he may be interested in playing in Buffalo as no less than Outside WR3, maybe even getting a share of WR2 reps, as the Rookie is not guaranteed to immediately hit the ground running.

 

You quote Green Bay to make your argument, but there's one major difference there - Green Bay was in Year 1 of Jordan Love and in the middle of a rebuild. They overachieved and reached the Playoffs yes, but there's a big difference between what a team competing for a Championship will risk and what a rebuilding team will risk. It worked out for Green Bay, but there's no saying 4 Rookies (with Shorter a redshirt Rookie) will work the same for us.

 

As for the money, again, with the jump in Salary Cap - add 11m extra to whatever the moves we would have done to get to under would get us. That's enough for Brown and another player.

 

You can say we should draft 3 Rookies and call it a day. But there's no way Beane doesn't bring in at least 1 veteran though. We'll Draft 2 within the first 5 Rounds for the 53, but there won't be 3.

Edited by BillsFanForever19
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Let Gabe & Sherfield walk / cut Harty

 

If we are to hand out one legitimate FA contract (outside Jones and/or Epenesa), it should be for a vet outside WR. 
 

Head into the draft with Diggs, Shakir, FA, Shorter.

 

Shakir is the slot and we’d be smart to plan on using Diggs more in the slot as well. Kincaid & Cook will also play some slot.  
 

Draft two outside WR’s.. One in RD1 or RD2 and one early Day 3. 
 

Edited by SCBills
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3 minutes ago, SCBills said:

Let Gabe & Sherfield walk / cut Harty

 

If we are to hand out one legitimate FA contract (outside Jones and/or Epenesa), it should be for a vet outside WR. 
 

Head into the draft with Diggs, Shakir, FA, Shorter.

 

Shakir is the slot and we’d be smart to plan on using Diggs more in the slot as well. Kincaid & Cook will also play some slot.  
 

Draft two outside WR’s.. One in RD1 or RD2 and one early Day 3. 
 

Totally agree. Although, if someone wants to give us a 1 for Diggs, I'd strongly consider it.  Better to be a year too early than a year too late in moving on from him.  And, with the depth of the WR class, loading up with two early picks at that position could set us up for quite some time there (assuming, of course, that we hit on them). 

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9 minutes ago, SectionC3 said:

Totally agree. Although, if someone wants to give us a 1 for Diggs, I'd strongly consider it.  Better to be a year too early than a year too late in moving on from him.  And, with the depth of the WR class, loading up with two early picks at that position could set us up for quite some time there (assuming, of course, that we hit on them). 


Oh, I’d move Diggs for a 1 in a second given the cap lifeline provided that could help us eat the accelerated dead cap. 
 

I just don’t think the Bills will do that. 
 

But if a team with a young QB who wants to give them a proven high level WR instead of gambling on a draft pick wants to call up Beane with an offer, I’d love to hear the inner FO discussions on that. 

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19 minutes ago, SCBills said:


Oh, I’d move Diggs for a 1 in a second given the cap lifeline provided that could help us eat the accelerated dead cap. 
 

I just don’t think the Bills will do that. 
 

But if a team with a young QB who wants to give them a proven high level WR instead of gambling on a draft pick wants to call up Beane with an offer, I’d love to hear the inner FO discussions on that. 

My guess, and this is just a hunch, is that they would be very quick conversations, maybe involve a check with Josh and a promise to him to take two WRs in the first three picks, and conclude with a heartfelt thank you to Mr. Diggs for his time here.  

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Given our cap situation, I don’t see signing any new top tier FA. 
 

If the money is right, my initial priorities would be 

1. DQ Jones

2. AJ Epenesa

3. Taylor Rapp or Gilman at S

 

Thats it. I’d pick up 1-2 WR in rinds 1-3, and then another WR in the second round of FA post draft and June 1

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12 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I don't understand how you and others think there is $6 million floating around to pay a Reynolds or Brown to be our 4th receiver.  He isn't going anywhere to be a 4 and it's a waste for Buffalo with so many other needs and limited cap space.  Diggs and Shakir are the 1 & 3.  We will be using a high pick at WR.  That player is the 2 replacing Davis.  The Bills only carry 5 WRs, thus after those 3 you are not investing $6 million or more in a 4th string wideout.  The Bills already have Shorter in development, plus Isabella and Hamler as futures/reserve contracts.   Is it possible that Beane finds a veteran for a $2 Million prove-it contract to come in and compete with Shorter, Hamler, and a later draft pick for a job?  Sure it's possible, but don't expect that player that player to be on Reynolds' level.  Spotrac projects Reynolds contract at $7 million and Brown at 5.6.    I will give you one name that could come cheap, has talent, is young, and produced decently before last season and that is Chase Claypool.  

 

GMs, even good ones, go with inexperienced WR groups.  GB's top 4 WRs and top 2 TEs last year were all 1st and 2nd-year players and they out-performed the Bills' group.  

We need a vet WR addition, to go along with the rookie 1st rounder.  Someone that can help with production as the rookie inevitably gets caught up.

 

I mean I'd love a guy like Ridley, in addition to a rookie, but more likely we get a guy like Noah Brown, Chark or Bourne. 

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2 hours ago, SCBills said:


Oh, I’d move Diggs for a 1 in a second given the cap lifeline provided that could help us eat the accelerated dead cap. 
 

I just don’t think the Bills will do that. 
 

But if a team with a young QB who wants to give them a proven high level WR instead of gambling on a draft pick wants to call up Beane with an offer, I’d love to hear the inner FO discussions on that. 


it’s a real possibility, but I think we’d have to include a mid round pick next year and a late rounder this year. Some combination like that along with Diggs in order to get a 1st

 

Houston and Dallas are both teams that I can see doing this.  Jones already said he’s “going all in” and Texans may want a veteran for Stroud (+rumors about this already)

 

23rd or 24th overall for Diggs + 3rd in 25 + 6th this year seems like a fair trade IMO

 

While not likely, if this were to happen….

 

we could walk out of Round 1 with 2 of Brian Thomas Jr / Troy Franklin / Legette

 

In addition to that….maybe you get super lucky and the Colts let Pittman hit UFA. In his prime, put up quality production with bottom tier QB play. Already has a friendship with Allen.  A 5 year 100 mil deal + void years can make the cap hit for the next few years fairly low. Pittman seems to catch everything. We badly need more of that

 

Pittman Jr.

Brian Thomas Jr

Troy Franklin

Shakir

 


now if Diggs stays, I’d still TRY to acquire  a quality WR on the market or via trade & I would still draft WR in Round 1 + another in Round 2-4

Edited by Warriorspikes51
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7 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

You quote Green Bay to make your argument, but there's one major difference there - Green Bay was in Year 1 of Jordan Love and in the middle of a rebuild. They overachieved and reached the Playoffs yes, but there's a big difference between what a team competing for a Championship will risk and what a rebuilding team will risk. It worked out for Green Bay, but there's no saying 4 Rookies (with Shorter a redshirt Rookie) will work the same for us.

Saying the GM built the young group because they had a 1st year QB doesn't make any sense. You would think a GM would want some vets in his WR/TE groups to help a 1st year QB.  GB had lousy WR/TE groups and they needed to be rebuilt for whomever.  Unlike Beane, their GM invested significant draft assets in the position.  Over the last two years used 8 draft picks to build a good receiving and TE group, including a 1st (Musgrove), 2 2nds (Reed and Watson), a 3rd (Kraft), a 4th (Doubs), a 5th (Wicks) and 2 7ths (Toure and Dubose).  They also used a 3rd on Amari Rodgers in 2021.  Most of these picks were drafted before Love was the starter.  

 

Also saying Championship caliber teams don't start rookies or young players is BS.  Our starters last season included Torrence (Rookie), Kincaid (Rookie), Shakir (2nd year), Benford (2nd year), Benard (2nd year), and Cook (2nd year).  All the 2nd year players received significant PT as rookies.  The only way you stay competitive once you reach the top in a cap league is to draft well and have your kids play well.  You have to keep turning over your roster to get younger and cheaper.  This is where the Bills are.  

 

 

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35 minutes ago, harmonkillebrew said:

We need a vet WR addition, to go along with the rookie 1st rounder.  Someone that can help with production as the rookie inevitably gets caught up.

No, we don't.  We have vets at WR.  Their names are Diggs and Shakir.  When was Kincaid "caught up" last season as a rookie starter at TE?  When was Torrence "caught up" as a rookie starter in the Oline?  Both are much harder spots for a rookie to succeed than as a deep-threat boundary WR.  Last season alone the NFL had 8 rookie WRs and 2 rookie TEs haul in 600 or more receiving yards.  Do you expect a veteran WR we can afford to do better than that?    People keep mentioning guys like Noah Brown (567 yards last season), Bourne (406 yards),  Mooney (414 yards) and Reynolds (608 yards).  Do you think any of those guys want to come here to be the 4? Is Beane going to pay 5-7 million to one of those guys as rookie failure insurance?  I doubt it when he has other areas to spend his limited cap dollars on like D Line and safety.  This is one of the those times where we are going to have to go young and see what happens.

 

The Bills are still $41.3 million over the new cap.  Even if they shave 70 million off the current cap figure, that doesn't leave much money to sign the draft picks (approx 10 million), rebuild the D Line, and get a starting safety, and a good backup QB, while also filling out the depth at RB, CB, O Line etc... 

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Just now, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Jeremy Chinn is interesting for me. He is a super athlete and not a bad safety at all, coming off an injury plagued 8-game season. He definitely hasn’t had the career to warrant big money, he could blow up with McD. 


I’m good with this. If we do sign him, I’ll pretend he never played for Carolina haha

 

Chinn and Curtis Samuel make a lot of sense for us

Just now, GASabresIUFan said:

No, we don't.  We have vets at WR.  Their names are Diggs and Shakir.  When was Kincaid "caught up" last season as a rookie starter at TE?  When was Torrence "caught up" as a rookie starter in the Oline?  Both are much harder spots for a rookie to succeed than as a deep-threat boundary WR.  Last season alone the NFL had 8 rookie WRs and 2 rookie TEs haul in 600 or more receiving yards.  Do you expect a veteran WR we can afford to do better than that?    People keep mentioning guys like Noah Brown (567 yards last season), Bourne (406 yards),  Mooney (414 yards) and Reynolds (608 yards).  Do you think any of those guys want to come here to be the 4? Is Beane going to pay 5-7 million to one of those guys as rookie failure insurance?  I doubt it when he has other areas to spend his limited cap dollars on like D Line and safety.  This is one of the those times where we are going to have to go young and see what happens.

 

The Bills are still $41.3 million over the new cap.  Even if they shave 70 million off the current cap figure, that doesn't leave much money to sign the draft picks (approx 10 million), rebuild the D Line, and get a starting safety, and a good backup QB, while also filling out the depth at RB, CB, O Line etc... 


sigh. When is the phreting over the cap going to end?   30 million in space which is absolutely doable for us is plenty of room to make moves.  
 

How much did we have last season?  We kept signing veteran players

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1 minute ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Jeremy Chinn is interesting for me. He is a super athlete and not a bad safety at all, coming off an injury plagued 8-game season. He definitely hasn’t had the career to warrant big money, he could blow up with McD. 

 

I think Chinn is a very reasonable risk. When healthy he is a very good player.  We need the help we can get at S.

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23 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

sigh. When is the phreting over the cap going to end?   30 million in space which is absolutely doable for us is plenty of room to make moves.

 

The Bills only have 30-35 players under contract that you can project to next year's roster.  That leaves about 20 jobs available for rookies and FAs.  The estimated cap cost for the draftees is about 10 million for the top 6-7 guys. So that leaves about 20 million for 13-14 players using your estimate of available cap space or about 1.6 to 1.7 per FA.  Last season we signed McGovern for 3 years 22.5.  We also gave Floyd 1 year at 7 million with some void years to lower his cap hit.  Those were the two biggest deals last year and I'd be surprised if this FA season isn't similar.  Most of the rest of the FAs last year were the parade of 2 million or less guys like Sherfield, Dodson, Lawson, Martin, Rapp, Joseph, and Edwards.

 

We need 4-5 players along the D Line, 2-3 safeties, at least 2 RBs, a backup QB, and more depth on the Oline.  30 million just doesn't go as far as it used to. ;)

Edited by GASabresIUFan
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1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

No, we don't.  We have vets at WR.  Their names are Diggs and Shakir.  When was Kincaid "caught up" last season as a rookie starter at TE?  When was Torrence "caught up" as a rookie starter in the Oline?  Both are much harder spots for a rookie to succeed than as a deep-threat boundary WR.  Last season alone the NFL had 8 rookie WRs and 2 rookie TEs haul in 600 or more receiving yards.  Do you expect a veteran WR we can afford to do better than that?    People keep mentioning guys like Noah Brown (567 yards last season), Bourne (406 yards),  Mooney (414 yards) and Reynolds (608 yards).  Do you think any of those guys want to come here to be the 4? Is Beane going to pay 5-7 million to one of those guys as rookie failure insurance?  I doubt it when he has other areas to spend his limited cap dollars on like D Line and safety.  This is one of the those times where we are going to have to go young and see what happens.

 

The Bills are still $41.3 million over the new cap.  Even if they shave 70 million off the current cap figure, that doesn't leave much money to sign the draft picks (approx 10 million), rebuild the D Line, and get a starting safety, and a good backup QB, while also filling out the depth at RB, CB, O Line etc... 

 

We need the WR depth anyways, even if the rookie shines. Sheffield and Davis are FAs. Harty will probably be cut (we overpaid him anyways)

We can get a decent vet WR for $3-5m for a 1 year contract. Last year Brown was $2.6m. Chark was $5m. Agholor was $3.25. Crowder was $1.3. 

You can go multiple years and spread it out.

Cap won't be a problem for depth signings.

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7 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Saying the GM built the young group because they had a 1st year QB doesn't make any sense. You would think a GM would want some vets in his WR/TE groups to help a 1st year QB.  GB had lousy WR/TE groups and they needed to be rebuilt for whomever.  Unlike Beane, their GM invested significant draft assets in the position.  Over the last two years used 8 draft picks to build a good receiving and TE group, including a 1st (Musgrove), 2 2nds (Reed and Watson), a 3rd (Kraft), a 4th (Doubs), a 5th (Wicks) and 2 7ths (Toure and Dubose).  They also used a 3rd on Amari Rodgers in 2021.  Most of these picks were drafted before Love was the starter.  

 

Also saying Championship caliber teams don't start rookies or young players is BS.  Our starters last season included Torrence (Rookie), Kincaid (Rookie), Shakir (2nd year), Benford (2nd year), Benard (2nd year), and Cook (2nd year).  All the 2nd year players received significant PT as rookies.  The only way you stay competitive once you reach the top in a cap league is to draft well and have your kids play well.  You have to keep turning over your roster to get younger and cheaper.  This is where the Bills are.  

 

Are you aware what a Year 1 rebuild or soft rebuild is? It doesn't mean you're building your team around your Rookie QB with the best humanly possibly in Year 1. It means you're rebuilding your cap, filling holes with cheaper, younger players, so that in the coming years you can have a new team and go out and get the things you need - working around the young cheap players that worked out in Year 1 to build a contender.

 

You ever looked at Josh Allen's WR's in Year 1? Here's what he was working with: Zay Jones, Robert Foster, Isaiah McKenzie, Da'Mari Scott, Ray Ray McCloud, and Deonte Thompson

 

And did I say we shouldn't start Rookies or that championship teams don't do that? No, I didn't. 

 

But there's a difference between starting some Rookies or young players and saying "we've got to fill half of our WR core this season and 1 of the guys we have is a redshirt Rookie already.... let's fill out ALL 3 of the rest of the holes there with exclusively Rookies!".

 

I've maintained from the beginning that we Draft our WR2 in Round 1 and that we take another in the mid Rounds.

 

But that all 4 of our WR's not named Stefon Diggs and Khalil Shakir should have zero Regular Season experience is not a realistic idea for a Championship contending team. We have to have at least 1 of those 3 guys being a known commodity. Bc Rookies are complete unknowns, especially in Year 1 when they're learning. They can hit and be great like Puka Nacua. Or they can bust like Quentin Johnston or Treylon Burks. We could double down and end up with the WR equivalent of what happened to us at DE.

 

Again, it's one thing to say we can't afford a big ticket FA (which is the truth) and that we should Draft a guy or two. It's another to say we can't afford ANYONE. Or that if you aren't getting the big ticket WR, you're wasting your time. Neither are true. We can afford a vet and whether you think we should or not - I assure you Beane is going to.

 

There is close to a zero chance that with the way Beane and McDermott look at Roster Building that they're going to replace Davis, Sherfield, and Harty ALL with Rookies. Be glad we'll do 2 of the 3 that way.

 

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Saying the GM built the young group because they had a 1st year QB doesn't make any sense. You would think a GM would want some vets in his WR/TE groups to help a 1st year QB.  GB had lousy WR/TE groups and they needed to be rebuilt for whomever.  Unlike Beane, their GM invested significant draft assets in the position.  Over the last two years used 8 draft picks to build a good receiving and TE group, including a 1st (Musgrove), 2 2nds (Reed and Watson), a 3rd (Kraft), a 4th (Doubs), a 5th (Wicks) and 2 7ths (Toure and Dubose).  They also used a 3rd on Amari Rodgers in 2021.  Most of these picks were drafted before Love was the starter.  

 

Also saying Championship caliber teams don't start rookies or young players is BS.  Our starters last season included Torrence (Rookie), Kincaid (Rookie), Shakir (2nd year), Benford (2nd year), Benard (2nd year), and Cook (2nd year).  All the 2nd year players received significant PT as rookies.  The only way you stay competitive once you reach the top in a cap league is to draft well and have your kids play well.  You have to keep turning over your roster to get younger and cheaper.  This is where the Bills are.  

 

It's humanly possible. But that doesn't make it a "real" possibility. It's an EXTREMELY unrealistic possibility. One that only you, other fans who despise him, and clickbait media outlets bang the table for. But it's simply not happening this season. 

 

And Pittman? That's an even bigger joke. He's not going anywhere. He'll either be extended or Franchised before he hits the market. In the surprising event that he does? He's getting an INSANE contract to be a team's #1. And you can try and manufacture that contract to work for us any way you want. It's still going to be too much for us this year and ESPECIALLY for years to come.

 

And if we were to magically find a way to figure Pittman in - say goodbye to the WR's you love so much in Round 1. There is zero scenario where we put forth the kind of money it would take for Pittman and be able to turn around and use a 1st Rounder at WR. We'd be essentially ignoring everything else on the team - when we have 5 holes at Starting DE, DT, and S along with the first DT off the bench, who basically gets a starters amount of reps.

 

We're gonna do some exciting stuff here at that position. But the reality is in between what you want and what the guy I quoted above you wants..... (Continued below)

 

6 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:


I’m good with this. If we do sign him, I’ll pretend he never played for Carolina haha

 

Chinn and Curtis Samuel make a lot of sense for us


sigh. When is the phreting over the cap going to end?   30 million in space which is absolutely doable for us is plenty of room to make moves.  
 

How much did we have last season?  We kept signing veteran players

 

This is true to an extent. 

 

Yes, the idea that we can't afford ANYONE and have to Draft every hole at WR (or elsewhere) isn't true. We can afford a veteran and we're going to get one.

 

But we cannot afford any of the many big ideas you have. Cover 1 doesn't even talk about the Curtis Samuel level WR's, let alone the Pittman's or Evans'. 

 

Like I said, the truth is somewhere between what the guy you're replying to is saying and what you're constantly posting about. We'll be able to dig out of 41m over the cap to sign some guys to fill the MANY holes we have. But because of having that many holes to fill and the fact that in any given Draft, there's less than 32 players you can count on to Start - we are going to have to be judicious in our approach. No massive spending on any one position. 

 

Yes, we did keep signing vets last season. But they were all of a certain price point. And as bad of a position as we were in last year, we're in even a worse position this year - cap wise and roster wise. So look at last season as the benchmark on the type of moves we'll make.

 

As Beane said in his Presser, there will be no big splashes this season. And that we'll be "shopping in a lot of the same stores we were last season". It will be guys who won't break the bank, most on 1 year deals, guys we can convince to come cheaper or will have to come cheaper bc of circumstance.

 

You're going to get your 1st Round WR for WR2. And you'll get another later in the Draft. And you'll get a vet. And that's going to be exciting enough. But your head is absolutely in the clouds though when you start talking about Trading Diggs, acquiring a guy like Pittman, and Drafting 2 WR's in the first 45-60 picks. 

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