Was the Bills/Chiefs Game decided in Week 18?

[SCBills]

We can all lament on how we just didn't get the breaks.  Why did the injuries have to hit so significantly right before we played Kansas City?  Why don't the bounces go our way.. Why is KC always seem to be luckier than us when it comes to staying healthy?  McDermott even addressed this as something we need to look at re: the heavy injury situation we've faced lately. 

 

Well...

 

It's a one game season in the Playoffs, but what you do all season has a massive effect on that one game season.

 

KC Road to the Super Bowl last year consisted of a BYE Week and then Home against a weak Divisional opponent in Jax. 

 

BAL Road to the AFC Championship Game this year consisted of a BYE week and then Home against a weak Divisional opponent in Houston.

 

That matters.  

 

And what else also matters?....

 

The fact that we had to go all out for the last 1/3rd of the season to even make the playoffs.  The fact we had to go all out to win the Division in Week 18.  The fact we had to play a grueling second half against Pittsburgh in the WC Round when we were about to run away with the game before halftime. 

 

It all adds up..

 

KC didn't have a bye week, but they rested guys Week 18 and made easy work of the Dolphins.  

 

We can all pretend that it's just about getting into the playoffs and letting the chips fall where they may..  but the 1 seed is an absurdly huge advantage in the new format and if you can't get that.. rest down the stretch becomes even more important.  

 

We lost a few guys in that Miami game.  And then we lost some guys in the Steelers game.  We know guys were playing through injury, pushing themselves down the stretch.  Bernard hurt his ankle against the Chargers, and then had to push through it.. maybe if he doesn't have to push so hard.. who knows. 

 

But what I do know, is that now.. more than ever... it matters what you do in the regular season.   And I can't help but believe, with the difference between winning and losing in these Chiefs games being so small.. that Week 18 mattered more than we could have ever known. 

 

The 3 best teams in the AFC were Baltimore, KC and Buffalo.  Baltimore had a two week bye.  KC had a pseudo one week bye.  Bills had to push all their chips in down the stretch.

 

It takes luck.  Sometimes you have to make your own luck.  

[whorlnut]

Tough to blame injuries when our healthiest unit on d (the dline) failed to touch Mahomes.

[PBF81]

Just now, whorlnut said:

Tough to blame injuries when our healthiest unit on d (the dline) failed to touch Mahomes.

 

Or do much to stop their running game, Pacheco's 2nd-best yards-per-carry game of the season and 4th best yards-from-scrimmage performance.  

 

The question is whether we did all that we could do, including, once again, not making boneheaded decisions and conservative play-calling leading to 3.6 Yards-per-Play in the 2nd Half with once again, seemingly zero ability to adjust, thereby getting out-coached again in the playoffs, etc.  

 

We clearly did not.  

 

The excuses provided on McDivision's behalf are seemingly endless.  

 

 

[whorlnut]

1 minute ago, PBF81 said:

 

Or do much to stop their running game, Pacheco's 2nd-best yards-per-carry game of the season and 4th best yards-from-scrimmage performance.  

 

The question is whether we did all that we could do, including, once again, not making boneheaded decisions and conservative play-calling leading to 3.6 Yards-per-Play in the 2nd Half with once again, seemingly zero ability to adjust, thereby getting out-coached again in the playoffs, etc.  

 

We clearly did not.  

 

The excuses provided on McDivision's behalf are seemingly endless.  

 

 

What really makes this tough is that we spent an entire offseason a few years ago with the sole purpose of “sacking Mahomes”. It’s embarrassing. 
 

Im not sure how much more proof they need that this just might not be possible at a high rate. Philly had the best d line in the league last year and couldn’t touch him in the sb. We need to build this o around Allen and make it impossible to keep up with us. 

Edited January 24 by whorlnut

[SCBills]

6 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

What really makes this tough is that we spent an entire offseason a few years ago with the sole purpose of “sacking Mahomes”. It’s embarrassing. 

 

I think it's time for a new philosophy.  KC's Defense was far healthier and they couldn't sack Allen, or stop Allen, without the help of our WR's dropping passes and a missed FG kick.

 

Refs don't call playoff games the same way.

 

These were two of the top 5 teams in sacks.  Zero sacks combined all game. 

 

Also, it's hard to sack someone when your back 7 can't cover anyone.  And it's hard to stop the run, when you can't risk taking your Nickel corner off the field, let alone bring up LB's to play the run due to the coverage issues.  

 

Rasul Douglas should not have played. He was at best, around 50%.   We were essentially down CB1, CB2 and our top coverage LB.  

 

The Defense was a disgrace and I'm not letting McDermott off the hook as him being a Defensive guy, I'm still waiting for that to show itself in the Playoffs, sans a wind game against Lamar, but Week 18 & the WC Round had a profound effect on our ability to stop KC.

 

And like it or not, but losing Gabe Week 18 proved to be a big deal. 

 

 

Edited January 24 by SCBills

[FilthyBeast]

The Chiefs won because they have the better coach, QB and defense which was validated yet again in this latest matchup. They are also the defending world champions playing in their 6 straight AFCCG. Why people choose to over analyze the situation is a frivolous waste of time

 

Also I think the injury excuse is tiresome at this point as well especially when it's already been pointed out that when a healthy Milano, White, etc has played in these games the result has been exactly the same. The issue that does need to be addressed though is this regimes persistent drafting of undersized, injury prone players (mostly on defense which is no coincidence). I think you also have to clean house with the training/strength and conditioning staff at this point as well.

[SCBills]

1 minute ago, FilthyBeast said:

The Chiefs won because they have the better coach, QB and defense which was validated yet again in this latest matchup. They are also the defending world champions playing in their 6 straight AFCCG. Why people choose to over analyze the situation is a frivolous waste of time

 

Also I think the injury excuse is tiresome at this point as well especially when it's already been pointed out that when a healthy Milano, White, etc has played in these games the result has been exactly the same. The issue that does need to be addressed though is this regimes persistent drafting of undersized, injury prone players (mostly on defense which is no coincidence). I think you also have to clean house with the training/strength and conditioning staff at this point as well.

 

My point about the game being decided in Week 18 is not a defense of McDermott.  Far from it.  

 

 

[mannc]

19 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Tough to blame injuries when our healthiest unit on d (the dline) failed to touch Mahomes.

KC's d-line didn't touch Allen, either.  The officials decided to allow holding on the o-line.  Go figure.

[DrDawkinstein]

What it comes down to is simple:

 

Beat the Jets, Pats, and Broncos like you should have when you were 100% healthy (or close enough to it), and we have the #1 spot locked up and can rest guys week 18 AND get the Bye in week 19.

 

17 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

Tough to blame injuries when our healthiest unit on d (the dline) failed to touch Mahomes.

 

And our entire OL has been healthy all year.

 

Both trench units, arguably up there with QB as most important personnel, were pretty healthy.

 

Losing LBs in a league that has devalued the LB position shouldnt have affected us to the point of ruining our season. I know there were other injuries but we had enough guys to go.

[whorlnut]

Just now, mannc said:

KC's d-line didn't touch Allen, either.  The officials decided to allow holding on the o-line.  Go figure.

That’s a good point. More reasons to load up on offense and make other teams try to keep pace with us. 

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, mannc said:

KC's d-line didn't touch Allen, either.  The officials decided to allow holding on the o-line.  Go figure.

 

Totally fine with that. After a full season of seeing more ref time on air than I'd ever want to in my lifetime, they can keep their flags in their pockets.

 

Especially since they did it fairly for both teams. Too bad the Bills couldnt figure out a way to capitalize on that gift.

[strive_for_five_guy]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

What it comes down to is simple:

 

Beat the Jets, Pats, and Broncos like you should have when you were 100% healthy (or close enough to it), and we have the #1 spot locked up and can rest guys week 18 AND get the Bye in week 19.

 

 

And our entire OL has been healthy all year.

 

Both trench units, arguably up there with QB as most important personnel, were pretty healthy.

 

Losing LBs in a league that has devalued the LB position shouldnt have affected us to the point of ruining our season. I know there were other injuries but we had enough guys to go.

You nailed it 👍…this team can’t be losing crap games next season

[whorlnut]

1 minute ago, DrDawkinstein said:

What it comes down to is simple:

 

Beat the Jets, Pats, and Broncos like you should have when you were 100% healthy (or close enough to it), and we have the #1 spot locked up and can rest guys week 18 AND get the Bye in week 19.

 

 

And our entire OL has been healthy all year.

 

Both trench units, arguably up there with QB as most important personnel, were pretty healthy.

 

Losing LBs in a league that has devalued the LB position shouldnt have affected us to the point of ruining our season. I know there were other injuries but we had enough guys to go.

I agree. Well said. The point is that if we have a defense that is top 8-12, that should be good enough if you give the offense the weapons it needs to make it unstoppable. The problem is…will McD sign off on this?  I don’t know if he will be ok with having a “good enough” defense. 

[PBF81]

15 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

What really makes this tough is that we spent an entire offseason a few years ago with the sole purpose of “sacking Mahomes”. It’s embarrassing. 
 

Im not sure how much more proof they need that this just might not be possible at a high rate. Philly had the best d line in the league last year and couldn’t touch him in the sb. We need to build this o around Allen and make it impossible to keep up with us. 

 

That's the core of the entire debate. 

 

Are we the only team in the league with a great QB that has only very minimally tried to do that.  

 

It would seem to be common sense that if you Draft Allen, build around him.  Apparently that's an insurmountable mental hurdle for McD, in all sincerity.  

 

He's playing more like Richardson did at Florida than as someone with the strongest arm in the NFL that can make any throw.  

 

That's the way they now have it under Brady.  

 

 

[FilthyBeast]

1 minute ago, SCBills said:

 

My point about the game being decided in Week 18 is not a defense of McDermott.  Far from it.  

 

 

 

I didn't address that because we've seen mixed results through the years in terms of teams resting their key players. Chiefs have done this pretty much on an annual basis the last 6 years and they've obviously never in the playoffs as a result. In fact I believe Andy Reid has the best record in NFL history coming off a bye week in both regular/postseason.

 

Regardless outside of the Chiefs being somewhat of an anomaly I still always tend to favor the team that has is battled tested and don't rest players which is one of the main reasons I think the Texans also beat the Browns convincingly a few weeks ago despite everyone jumping on that bandwagon. Browns rested everyone the last week of the season and the Texans played a gritty must win game in Indy to secure a playoff spot, then ultimately division when Jaguars collapse was finished.

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, strive_for_five_guy said:

You nailed it 👍…this team can’t be losing crap games next season

 

Line the Bills and Ravens rosters up on paper and theyre pretty close.

The main difference is their future HoF coach who oversees the entire team, not just one unit, and keeps the entire team consistently ready to play.

 

That's why they have 13 (could have been 14 if they wanted) wins and we're squeezing out 11.

[boyst]

1 minute ago, whorlnut said:

I agree. Well said. The point is that if we have a defense that is top 8-12, that should be good enough if you give the offense the weapons it needs to make it unstoppable. The problem is…will McD sign off on this?  I don’t know if he will be ok with having a “good enough” defense. 

our defense declined. we are old, we got tired, we got hurt.

 

their defense improved. they are young, they got experienced, they got better.

[Beast]

The way I look at it is that we wanted them at home. We lost. End of story.

 

Even when we were healthier we barely beat them in KC.

 

Two fairly even matched teams that one gets it done when it matters most and the other had the ability to do so but hasn’t.

 

 

 

 

[FilthyBeast]

5 minutes ago, mannc said:

KC's d-line didn't touch Allen, either.  The officials decided to allow holding on the o-line.  Go figure.

 

They actually did though on the biggest play of the game when Chris Jones hit Allen at the right time when he threw what in all likelihood was a TD pass to Shakir which would have taken a 31-27 lead and forced Mahomes to answer back with TD instead of FG. Obviously in hindsight this is the only game changing play that truly mattered.

 

This is still one of the main differences with the Bills (and why a 'defensive' head coach needs to go) because we simply don't have a guy that can do that on the defensive side in crucial moments.

[whorlnut]

The good thing in all this is it finally seems McD gets it. He talked for a while about throwing the ball and having explosive plays yesterday. You honestly have to be blind if you can’t see what this team lacks and what it needs more than anything else. 

[boyst]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Line the Bills and Ravens rosters up on paper and theyre pretty close.

The main difference is their future HoF coach who oversees the entire team, not just one unit, and keeps the entire team consistently ready to play.

 

That's why they have 13 (could have been 14 if they wanted) wins and we're squeezing out 11.

in 2025 i'm making a bingo card of reasons we lose a game. i'll use plenty from this year.

 

• special teams let down
• defensive let down
• offensive let down
• coaching let down
• penalty to lose the game
• opponents score on last play
• injuries
• weather
• spleen injury
• rookie mistakes
• missed field goal

[DrDawkinstein]

1 minute ago, boyst said:

in 2025 i'm making a bingo card of reasons we lose a game. i'll use plenty from this year.

 

• special teams let down
• defensive let down
• offensive let down
• coaching let down
• penalty to lose the game
• opponents score on last play
• injuries
• weather
• spleen injury
• rookie mistakes
• missed field goal

 

And almost all of those are merely symptoms of the larger, bolded disease.

[mannc]

3 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

 

They actually did though on the biggest play of the game when Chris Jones hit Allen at the right time when he threw what in all likelihood was a TD pass to Shakir which would have taken a 31-27 lead and forced Mahomes to answer back with TD instead of FG. Obviously in hindsight this is the only game changing play that truly mattered.

 

This is still one of the main differences with the Bills (and why a 'defensive' head coach needs to go) because we simply don't have a guy that can do that on the defensive side in crucial moments.

Some people were saying Lil’ Ed was that guy…

[strive_for_five_guy]

12 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Line the Bills and Ravens rosters up on paper and theyre pretty close.

The main difference is their future HoF coach who oversees the entire team, not just one unit, and keeps the entire team consistently ready to play.

 

That's why they have 13 (could have been 14 if they wanted) wins and we're squeezing out 11.

I’m skeptical of giving John Harbaugh too much credit though.  I didn’t realize it, but I saw he hasn’t been to an AFCCG since 2012?  Imagine the critics if McD fell short that many years in a row?  

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Very very true. All of the work it took to get there definitely took a toll. 

Since Allen has been here, we've still never been the #1 seed. It's a MASSIVE advantage to simply win two games and you're in. 

[SCBills]

9 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I’m skeptical of giving John Harbaugh too much credit though.  I didn’t realize it, but I saw he hasn’t been to an AFCCG since 2012?  Imagine the critics if McD fell short that many years in a row?  

 

I need to see Lamar/Baltimore this weekend.

 

If they win, I'll feel sick for Allen as he bears the brunt of being the only Mahomes/Allen/Burrow/Lamar QB to not have a Super Bowl appearance. 

 

If they lose, let's see how it plays out.   Lamar balled out against a mediocre/banged up Texans Defense in that second half, while CJ Stroud came back down to earth against an elite defense without many weapons.

 

9 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I’m skeptical of giving John Harbaugh too much credit though.  I didn’t realize it, but I saw he hasn’t been to an AFCCG since 2012?  Imagine the critics if McD fell short that many years in a row?  

 

We've been to the same number of AFC Championship Games with Allen as Baltimore has with Lamar.  

 

....and Allen has been healthy, at least available, every year into the postseason. 

 

Edited January 24 by SCBills

[Billever76]

44 minutes ago, whorlnut said:

What really makes this tough is that we spent an entire offseason a few years ago with the sole purpose of “sacking Mahomes”. It’s embarrassing. 
 

Im not sure how much more proof they need that this just might not be possible at a high rate. Philly had the best d line in the league last year and couldn’t touch him in the sb. We need to build this o around Allen and make it impossible to keep up with us. 

With a qb like allen and a wr like Diggs that should have been the "Process" all along and it's a NO Brainer....If we wanted to build a tough grind it out offense then we shouldn't have drafted allen or traded for Diggs

[78thealltimegreat]

this stat especially shows the Chiefs where fresher but their players made plays when they had too…and other then Josh and Khalil no one else did 

 

 

Edited January 24 by 78thealltimegreat

[Matt_In_NH]

I dont think the Bills had an outrageous amount of injuries.   All teams had issues at some point.  Luck plays into it in terms of timing or stacking up at one position but that is not atypical of something someone has to deal with on the way to a Super Bowl.  They could have won that game but failed to execute in some key situations.

[boyst]

25 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

And almost all of those are merely symptoms of the larger, bolded disease.

But we got to the playoffs! 😐

[TheBrownBear]

At the end of the day, we had 1st and 10 at the KC 27 yard line, 2:40 left on the clock, trailing by only 3 points against a tired defense that had already been on the field for 36 minutes of game clock.  Given everything that came before that moment, both during the game and the season on the whole, that's a position we would all sign up for.  Injuries or not, it was all right there for us and we crapped the bed.

[The Jokeman]

43 minutes ago, FilthyBeast said:

The Chiefs won because they have the better coach, QB and defense which was validated yet again in this latest matchup. They are also the defending world champions playing in their 6 straight AFCCG. Why people choose to over analyze the situation is a frivolous waste of time

 

Also I think the injury excuse is tiresome at this point as well especially when it's already been pointed out that when a healthy Milano, White, etc has played in these games the result has been exactly the same. The issue that does need to be addressed though is this regimes persistent drafting of undersized, injury prone players (mostly on defense which is no coincidence). I think you also have to clean house with the training/strength and conditioning staff at this point as well.

I disagree, the Chiefs kicker made a kick, ours did not. No telling what happens after Bass makes his kick. 

[FilthyBeast]

2 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

I disagree, the Chiefs kicker made a kick, ours did not. No telling what happens after Bass makes his kick. 

 

Mahomes drives down the field the and scores game winning TD/FG, probably with exactly 13 seconds on the clock to truly troll Bills fans as well.

34 minutes ago, mannc said:

Some people were saying Lil’ Ed was that guy…

 

I thought maybe he turned the corner as well but he was completely invisible as what the entire defensive line outside of Von Miller of all people that was actually noticeable out there a few times.

[DrDawkinstein]

29 minutes ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I’m skeptical of giving John Harbaugh too much credit though.  I didn’t realize it, but I saw he hasn’t been to an AFCCG since 2012?  Imagine the critics if McD fell short that many years in a row?  

 

He won a Super Bowl that year. His 4th year at the helm. He brought home the Lombardi.

 

If McD had won a SB his 4th year in 2021, like he should have, he would have carte blanche to whatever ups and downs he needed over the next 15 years.

 

Instead, he put himself on the fan's hotseat with his legendary contribution to Buffalo Bills Lovable Loser Lore.

 

Edited January 24 by DrDawkinstein

[zow2]

Our offense was mostly healthy this year. No excuses. A lot of teams aren’t.

[boyst]

5 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

He won a Super Bowl that year. His 4th year at the helm. He brought home the Lombardi.

 

If McD had won a SB his 4th year in 2021, like he should have, he would have carte blanche to whatever ups and downs he needed over the next 15 years.

 

Instead, he put himself on the fan's hotseat with his legendary contribution to Buffalo Bills Lovable Loser Lore.

 

a great example of how different things are different is Sean McVay.

Pre McVay the team had a lot of talent - just like McDermott's Bills. In 2016 they were 4-12. The previous 10 seasons never winning more than 10 games.

so...

   Jeff Fisher

2012: 2-14

2013: 7-9

2014: 6-10

2015: 7-9

2016: 4-12 

   McVay era:

2017: 11-5  wildcard loss

2018: 13-3 - super bowl loss

2019: 9-7

2020: 10-6 - divisional loss

2021: 12-5 - sold their soul to win the Super Bowl

2022: 5-12

2023: 10-7 - wildcard loss

 

i don't think more needs to be said beyond: Fisher = McDermott

 

[Low Positive]

37 minutes ago, 78thealltimegreat said:

this stat especially shows the Chiefs where fresher but their players made plays when they had too…and other then Josh and Khalil no one else did 

 

 

If you add up the margins of all 7 losses, it totals 29 points. The Ravens beat the Dolphins by 37. We also beat the Fins by 28 in week 4. I know that I am supposed to be all "the Bills are super losers and I hate them" but if clowning on the Fins is wrong, I don't wanna be right.

12 minutes ago, boyst said:

a great example of how different things are different is Sean McVay.

Pre McVay the team had a lot of talent - just like McDermott's Bills. In 2016 they were 4-12. The previous 10 seasons never winning more than 10 games.

so...

   Jeff Fisher

2012: 2-14

2013: 7-9

2014: 6-10

2015: 7-9

2016: 4-12 

   McVay era:

2017: 11-5  wildcard loss

2018: 13-3 - super bowl loss

2019: 9-7

2020: 10-6 - divisional loss

2021: 12-5 - sold their soul to win the Super Bowl

2022: 5-12

2023: 10-7 - wildcard loss

 

i don't think more needs to be said beyond: Fisher = McDermott

 

OK, fine. But Jeff Fisher still had a porn stache and a mullet in 2016. 

[H2o]

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

What it comes down to is simple:

 

Beat the Jets, Pats, and Broncos like you should have when you were 100% healthy (or close enough to it), and we have the #1 spot locked up and can rest guys week 18 AND get the Bye in week 19.

 

 

And our entire OL has been healthy all year.

 

Both trench units, arguably up there with QB as most important personnel, were pretty healthy.

 

Losing LBs in a league that has devalued the LB position shouldnt have affected us to the point of ruining our season. I know there were other injuries but we had enough guys to go.

I agree with the bold part most definitely. This year we could have easily been the #1 seed if we didn't lose to some bad teams.

 

The underlined and italic part, I do not. I think LB's are very important in this defense. Bernard was the key cog in our defense all year long. His athleticism, understanding of the defense, and instincts are off the charts. He was exactly what we needed at the MLB spot. You have to take into account the guys we lost. We lost our All Pro Matt Milano early. We lost Bernard for this, the most important game of the year. We lost Spector. Then Dodson was playing hampered by a shoulder injury. The athletic drop off between Bernard and Dodson is quite a bit. The drop off of Klein to Dodson and Bernard is definitely evident. Dorian Williams, though supremely athletic, isn't up to speed with this defense and his responsibilities yet mentally. In this matchup we were facing the greatest TE in NFL history, again. If we have a healthy Bernard, I think the defensive performance looks a lot different on Sunday. From the calls, to the pre-snap adjustments, I think everything would have played out different. 

 

It is what it is though, and the result is the result no matter how it is rationalized. 

[Governor]

1 hour ago, FilthyBeast said:

The Chiefs won because they have the better coach, QB and defense which was validated yet again in this latest matchup. They are also the defending world champions playing in their 6 straight AFCCG. Why people choose to over analyze the situation is a frivolous waste of time

 

Also I think the injury excuse is tiresome at this point as well especially when it's already been pointed out that when a healthy Milano, White, etc has played in these games the result has been exactly the same. The issue that does need to be addressed though is this regimes persistent drafting of undersized, injury prone players (mostly on defense which is no coincidence). I think you also have to clean house with the training/strength and conditioning staff at this point as well.

Every time we play KC I realize just how much larger and taller they are on defense. They have definitely changed the makeup of their team over the last 5-7 years. They used to be the defense that got abused. Not anymore.

[boyst]

18 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

If you add up the margins of all 7 losses, it totals 29 points. The Ravens beat the Dolphins by 37. We also beat the Fins by 28 in week 4. I know that I am supposed to be all "the Bills are super losers and I hate them" but if clowning on the Fins is wrong, I don't wanna be right.

OK, fine. But Jeff Fisher still had a porn stache and a mullet in 2016. 

fisher > mcdermott ?