McD end of game strategy

[Da webster guy]

It would have helped tremendously when we had 1st down on the KC 27 yard line for our OC and Head coach to tell Josh, listen man, we DONT want a touchdown right now, we want the next first down. We're already in FG range but our kicker has been erratic and we need to keep Mahomes on the bench, so just move the chains, we'll use the timeouts if we need to but this possession ends with us kicking a last second FG from the 10 yard line or getting a TD in the final seconds to win it.

 

I'm not saying McD didn't say that to Josh, but knowing him and the way he freezes up at the end of halves/games it never got said. Brady is an interim OC and probably is just thinking, how do we score asap? and Josh is the same way, he goes balls out.

 

These are the moments where a strategy can win you the game. Look for the underneath stuff Josh, it's a higher percentage play and we don't want the kill shot now anyway because KC has timeouts and we can't seem to stop Mahomes today.

 

If that gets said, he looks for Diggs wide open underneath instead of Shakir in the end zone, we move the chains, reduce the length of the kick by a lot and then play small ball until the clock winds down and then we take our shots to win it. Worst case it's a chip shot and we go to OT.   In other words, even if he hits Shakir for that touchdown I still think we lose that game, Mahomes with 2 minutes and multiple timeouts.   

 

Its something that your QB isn't going to think about, he's listening for the next play and trying to process the field stuff, you need strategy from your HC to feed him game management along the way.  That was a situation that called for small ball, high percentage, control the clock and kill time, but instead we're calling plays for endzone shots like there's only 20 seconds left

 

We need someone to manage our team during the games that sits next to our OC and can talk to Josh.  McD is a team leader/motivator not a strategic thinker, the OC has a tactical call the next play role, where is the strategist?  We lost because we didn't have one.

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Not disagreeing, but I just want to point out that McDermott got a lot of flak for the whole “scoring too fast” thing throughout the season.

[Real McClappy]

I texted my buddies the exact same thing above OP during the break. 

 

Then we do the complete opposite. 

[Drew21PA]

Am I the only one that feels with the shot to shake bring there - take it?

[VaMilBill]

I was actually thinking about this today. You need to cage your players brains on what strategy to execute. I completely agree with this assessment and really believed we would have won the game on a TD if he threw to Diggs, gets the first at that point. 

[Drew21PA]

I didn’t like 1st Down call though 

 

nor third down 

 

 

[Aussie Joe]

Do they ever prepare for scenarios like this all the hours they are together during the week?

[Matt_In_NH]

The game is not Madden, your goal is to score there, if the TD is there you have to take it especially against a top 2 defense in the league.  A TD puts you up by 4.  Sure if you can run the clock out and score on the last play you end the game but planning to do that would make your chances of scoring the TD much less.  The goal is the TD, you would not settle for the FG unless you get to fourth down.  I could not imagine any coach having the conversation in the first paragraph with any quarterback.

[Wraith]

3 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

If that gets said, he looks for Diggs wide open underneath instead of Shakir in the end zone, we move the chains, reduce the length of the kick by a lot and then play small ball until the clock winds down and then we take our shots to win it. 

 

There was no way Diggs was getting the first down on that play. Assuming the pass is accurate with the blow from Dawkins, and assuming Diggs actually catches it, that option was getting 4 or 5 yards max. They would still be facing a 3rd and medium while trying to preserve a FG attempt.

[Warcodered]

7 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

It would have helped tremendously when we had 1st down on the KC 27 yard line for our OC and Head coach to tell Josh, listen man, we DONT want a touchdown right now, we want the next first down. We're already in FG range but our kicker has been erratic and we need to keep Mahomes on the bench, so just move the chains, we'll use the timeouts if we need to but this possession ends with us kicking a last second FG from the 10 yard line or getting a TD in the final seconds to win it.

Then what Josh would have gone "Coach are you a ***** idiot?"

 

Yeah maybe it works out that way but you take a TD when you can get it, you're in the redzone against one of the best defenses in the NFL you'd have to be high not to.

Edited January 22 by Warcodered

[CapeBreton]

With how bad Bass has been, that should have changed the strategy. You can't just try three times (first run was just a wasted play too), not get it, and then have confidence in Bass there, wtf were they thinking? Awful strategy, thanks coach!

[msw2112]

Those 4 or 5 yards make it 3rd and manageable, as you correctly stated, which keeps the Chiefs' defense guessing and opens up the playbook more for the Bills.  Plus, a 41 yard FG becomes a 36 yarder.

 

I absolutely agree with the OP about the strategy there.  Not that you don't want a TD, but given the game situation, with time on the clock, the Chiefs having timeouts left, and Mahomes, Kelce, Reid, etc. on the other side, there's a damn good chance they score on the next drive.  Thus, yes, the objective should have been a) getting the first down; b) running the clock down; c) taking a few shots at the end zone from closer in; and d) settling for a shorter FG, with no time left, if that's what the situation called for.  Attempting a long throw into the end zone with a minute and half left and HOFers on the other team's offense, was not a winning strategy.  

Edited January 22 by msw2112

[Wraith]

 

[DrDawkinstein]

lol. McD and in-game situational strategy. Never gonna happen.

 

McD doesnt even know what to do in those situations. Let alone be able to convince the entire team of it. Let alone be ready for that situation with a set of plays they have practiced and packaged EXACTLY for this situation.

 

That would take someone who is a true student of the game and true Head Coach. We have a Defensive Coordinator getting paid as a HC who fills in as HC on game day.

[NoSaint]

I’ll be honest, I didn’t understand burning time down to 2 mins without even lining up to see if we could get an advantageous look- presumably because our goal was yo have the ball last 

 

and then come out of the 2 min warning with two fast shots ensuring that KC would have no worries with time and we would almost certainly be screwed if they scored. 
 

it seemed very jumbled philosophically.

[DrDawkinstein]

Just now, NoSaint said:

I’ll be honest, I didn’t understand burning time down to 2 mins without even lining up to see if we could get an advantageous look- presumably because our goal was yo have the ball last 

 

and then come out of the 2 min warning with two fast shots ensuring that KC would have no worries with time and we would almost certainly be screwed if they scored. 
 

it seemed very jumbled philosophically.

 

Because there was no plan. McD himself didnt know whether he wanted to score a TD, get a 1st down, or what. So he did the typical soft, loser thing and played for a tie.

[cgg716]

Why is this take everywhere? Also did anyone actually see Diggs and Shakir 

[NoSaint]

Just now, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Because there was no plan. McD himself didnt know whether he wanted to score a TD, get a 1st down, or what. So he did the typical soft, loser thing and played for a tie.

It was just so odd - either take your shots fast so you can get the ball back for the last possession or keep grinding the clock. The way we did it made it the worst case scenario. We score and kc has time and the ability to leave us without another touch. If we miss we need a perfect 3 and out to get another shot and zero room for error. Finishing that drive between say 60 to 120 seconds on the clock (bar napkin math there)and without kc burning timeouts is the literal worst case scenario for 0, 3 or 7 points scored 

[HomeskillitMoorman]

3 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

I’ll be honest, I didn’t understand burning time down to 2 mins without even lining up to see if we could get an advantageous look- presumably because our goal was yo have the ball last 

 

and then come out of the 2 min warning with two fast shots ensuring that KC would have no worries with time and we would almost certainly be screwed if they scored. 
 

it seemed very jumbled philosophically.

 

Right, we gave up a precious extra play to burn clock when that wasn't even the end game "strategy". I have no problem with taking the shots because you have to get into the end zone, that's the first priority there to me. But then don't waste that play on 1st down. 

 

But this is part of the big problem here. McD has no real end game strategy. We have far and away the worst head coach in the NFL who consistently gets bailed out...but it's not going to happen against these elite teams as we've seen over and over again during his era. 

 

We absolutely can not win big with him here. i don't see how so many fans or Terry just don't see that. 

[TheBrownBear]

15 minutes ago, Real McClappy said:

I texted my buddies the exact same thing above OP during the break. 

 

Then we do the complete opposite. 

Yep.  Said to my Dad, "we need one more first down here, even if it takes us going for a fourth and short."  What we saw was the downside of being down only 3 points and being in reasonable field goal range.  And, of course, we ended up with the worst possible outcome in that situation (other than a turnover).

[WEATHER DOT COM]

I have a bigger issue with the 1st and 3rd down calls. 

 

Shot to Shakir was fine - the run up the gut to nowhere when everyone and their mother knew it was coming and whatever that 3rd down play was was brutal. 

[Rocbillsfan1]

17 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

The game is not Madden, your goal is to score there, if the TD is there you have to take it especially against a top 2 defense in the league.  A TD puts you up by 4.  Sure if you can run the clock out and score on the last play you end the game but planning to do that would make your chances of scoring the TD much less.  The goal is the TD, you would not settle for the FG unless you get to fourth down.  I could not imagine any coach having the conversation in the first paragraph with any quarterback.

Seriously, if the other team is giving you the TD there you take it. There’s no guarantee you score a TD eventually by throwing underneath. Also didn’t want to have to rely on Bass anyways. The defense had done pretty well with not giving up TDs so I make Mahomes go all the way down and score a TD there. 

[NoSaint]

2 minutes ago, HomeskillitMoorman said:

 

Right, we gave up a precious extra play to burn clock when that wasn't even the end game "strategy". I have no problem with taking the shots because you have to get into the end zone, that's the first priority there to me. But then don't waste that play on 1st down. 

 

But this is part of the big problem here. McD has no real end game strategy. We have far and away the worst head coach in the NFL who consistently gets bailed out...but it's not going to happen against these elite teams as we've seen over and over again during his era. 

 

We absolutely can not win big with him here. i don't see how so many fans or Terry just don't see that. 

right - if we are going for 7 points with a couple quick strikes, let’s do it at 2:30 to go, and then between the 2 min warning and timeouts we can get the ball back to end the game if we don’t score or kc returns serve on the next drive.
 

we could’ve had the 2 minute warning to help us after the missed kick if it was end zone, end zone long kick 

[djp14150]

14 minutes ago, Wraith said:

 

I would have wanted thr underneath route.  Even if Diggs doesn’t get the 1st, it’s 3 rd and short and burns clock or forces KC to use time out.

 

I wanted to score to tie or win with under 20 seconds snd KC has no time outs.  
 

I wouldn’t have gone to the end zone with 1:55 and 2 TOS.  Under 1 and KC out of TOS…sure.

Edited January 22 by djp14150

[Wraith]

1 minute ago, djp14150 said:

I would have wanted thr underneath route.  Even if Diggs doesn’t get the 1st, it’s 3 rd and short and burns clock or forces KC to use time out.

 

I wanted to score to tie or win with under 20 seconds snd KC has no time outs.  
 

I wouldn’t have gone to the end zone 

I think intentionally passing up on a very high percentage touchdown to go up by 4 points with 1:55 to play to instead set up a 3rd and 5 and a potential 39 yard field goal attempt to tie the score would not be the correct decision, thinking probabilistically.

[Einstein]

39 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

It would have helped tremendously when we had 1st down on the KC 27 yard line for our OC and Head coach to tell Josh, listen man, we DONT want a touchdown right now, we want the next first down.

Why in the world would he tell Josh that we don't want a TD?
 

That is beyond absurd.

You take the TD when you can get it, because you have no idea what will happen if you don't take it.

Say Allen his Diggs for the first down instead of throwing for the TD. What if the play after Diggs gets the first down, Cook fumbles the ball? Or a ball is tipped an KC intercepts it? Or we get a holding call that makes it 20 yards to get a first down? 

 

You always take the TD when you can get it.

[Blazman11]

48 minutes ago, Da webster guy said:

It would have helped tremendously when we had 1st down on the KC 27 yard line for our OC and Head coach to tell Josh, listen man, we DONT want a touchdown right now, we want the next first down. We're already in FG range but our kicker has been erratic and we need to keep Mahomes on the bench, so just move the chains, we'll use the timeouts if we need to but this possession ends with us kicking a last second FG from the 10 yard line or getting a TD in the final seconds to win it.

 

I'm not saying McD didn't say that to Josh, but knowing him and the way he freezes up at the end of halves/games it never got said. Brady is an interim OC and probably is just thinking, how do we score asap? and Josh is the same way, he goes balls out.

 

These are the moments where a strategy can win you the game. Look for the underneath stuff Josh, it's a higher percentage play and we don't want the kill shot now anyway because KC has timeouts and we can't seem to stop Mahomes today.

 

If that gets said, he looks for Diggs wide open underneath instead of Shakir in the end zone, we move the chains, reduce the length of the kick by a lot and then play small ball until the clock winds down and then we take our shots to win it. Worst case it's a chip shot and we go to OT.   In other words, even if he hits Shakir for that touchdown I still think we lose that game, Mahomes with 2 minutes and multiple timeouts.   

 

Its something that your QB isn't going to think about, he's listening for the next play and trying to process the field stuff, you need strategy from your HC to feed him game management along the way.  That was a situation that called for small ball, high percentage, control the clock and kill time, but instead we're calling plays for endzone shots like there's only 20 seconds left

 

We need someone to manage our team during the games that sits next to our OC and can talk to Josh.  McD is a team leader/motivator not a strategic thinker, the OC has a tactical call the next play role, where is the strategist?  We lost because we didn't have one.

 

That play was posted on Twitter last night from the sky judge view behind Allen.  Watching that, it looks like Shakir was the primary target on the play.  I’m going to guess that the Bills were waiting to call this play - setting this scenario up.  I say that because when Shakir got to the 10, the Safety turns his hips to the corner so they must have run that corner route multiple times already.  The second Allen saw the safety do that, he started to throw, knowing Shakir was going to the post and would be wide open.   

 

At this point, Dawkins was a good 5ish feet away from Allen.  It was a clean pocket when Allen started to throw.  By the time Allen’s backswing is at its peak, Dawkins is now a foot or two away from Allen.  Allen can’t move his lead foot because of this.  As the ball is leaving Allen’s hand, he gets bumped enough where his body moves to the right, ultimately causing the incompletion.

 

It’s a bit like analyzing the Zapruder film.  But that sky judge view is in high enough quality where you can break it down frame by frame and see everything that happened.  It’s was 100% the right play call and right decision by all parties involved.  They needed Dawkins to hold his block for 1/2 a second longer.  

Edited January 22 by Blazman11

[SoCal Deek]

Terrible strategy by the Bills and Allen. You take the underneath throw, all day, every day.

[Not at the table Karlos]

35 minutes ago, Wraith said:

There was no way Diggs was getting the first down on that play. Assuming the pass is accurate with the blow from Dawkins, and assuming Diggs actually catches it, that option was getting 4 or 5 yards max. They would still be facing a 3rd and medium while trying to preserve a FG attempt.

There wouldn’t have been a blow from Dawkins as the ball would have been out earlier and it was getting 5 yards minimum. Mcduffie peeled off but there was room to run. If diggs puts his foot in ground and goes straight upfield contact would have been made at about 5 yards from LOS, Diggs has broken or avoided a decent amount of tackles this year. If he sprints to sideline he possibly gets the first or more. 

[Matt_In_NH]

1 hour ago, Rocbillsfan1 said:

Seriously, if the other team is giving you the TD there you take it. There’s no guarantee you score a TD eventually by throwing underneath. Also didn’t want to have to rely on Bass anyways. The defense had done pretty well with not giving up TDs so I make Mahomes go all the way down and score a TD there. 

If you see the view from behind Josh, it was an easy touchdown too.....too bad, seems we can never catch a break

[RkFast]

1 hour ago, Da webster guy said:

It would have helped tremendously when we had 1st down on the KC 27 yard line for our OC and Head coach to tell Josh, listen man, we DONT want a touchdown right now, we want the next first down. We're already in FG range but our kicker has been erratic and we need to keep Mahomes on the bench, so just move the chains, we'll use the timeouts if we need to but this possession ends with us kicking a last second FG from the 10 yard line or getting a TD in the final seconds to win it.

 

I'm not saying McD didn't say that to Josh, but knowing him and the way he freezes up at the end of halves/games it never got said. Brady is an interim OC and probably is just thinking, how do we score asap? and Josh is the same way, he goes balls out.

 

These are the moments where a strategy can win you the game. Look for the underneath stuff Josh, it's a higher percentage play and we don't want the kill shot now anyway because KC has timeouts and we can't seem to stop Mahomes today.

 

If that gets said, he looks for Diggs wide open underneath instead of Shakir in the end zone, we move the chains, reduce the length of the kick by a lot and then play small ball until the clock winds down and then we take our shots to win it. Worst case it's a chip shot and we go to OT.   In other words, even if he hits Shakir for that touchdown I still think we lose that game, Mahomes with 2 minutes and multiple timeouts.   

 

Its something that your QB isn't going to think about, he's listening for the next play and trying to process the field stuff, you need strategy from your HC to feed him game management along the way.  That was a situation that called for small ball, high percentage, control the clock and kill time, but instead we're calling plays for endzone shots like there's only 20 seconds left

 

We need someone to manage our team during the games that sits next to our OC and can talk to Josh.  McD is a team leader/motivator not a strategic thinker, the OC has a tactical call the next play role, where is the strategist?  We lost because we didn't have one.

 

YES YES YES. Its not FG vs TD. They totally could have played for the tie and OT if they didnt want to go balls to the wall and play for the TD only. But you MUST get the clock down to zero or as close to it as you can. Yeah, yeah...13 seconds is all Mahomes needs. But Ill take my chances with THAT happening again over giving Patty M. the ball with a minute left. 

 

For me, its not even the "conservative vs aggresive" thing. Tom Brady won 6 SBs playing "conservative." Its the way the Bills go about it. 

[Alphadawg7]

Sorry, but this isn't even a debate.  

 

You DO NOT pass up a TD to go up 4 points with under 2 minutes left in the game.  No coach in the NFL would do that.  For what?  A short throw to Diggs that may not have even gotten the first down?  Then what?  Risk settling on a FG with time on the clock for Mahomes to go win the game on a FG vs needing to get a TD?  

 

There is no scenario ever where Josh should pass up on the TD strike to Shakir.  Its unfortunate that Dawkins stepped on Josh's foot on the throw or that is a TD all day.  Doesn't make it the wrong choice.  

 

It would be different if a FG puts us up 3 and a chance to win the game, but it only ties the game.  And that means you risk Mahomes who has TWICE gotten a FG on us in 13 seconds and 12 seconds (end of half last year reg season) wining the game outright in regulation if there is any time left or risk losing in OT.  

 

You 100% take the TD and make KC have to go the whole field in under 2 min for a TD to try and win.  How this is even being debated today is mind blowing to me honestly, especially given that throw to Diggs was no guarantee to even get to him nor would he have likely even gotten a first.  More like a 4 to 6 yard game is most likely bringing up something between 3rd and 3 to 5 yards.  

Edited January 22 by Alphadawg7