fergie's ire Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 49 minutes ago, Giuseppe Tognarelli said: I think you might have misread it. I'm saying the 95% NYT is wrong because of the reasons you stated. The actual chance based on the betting lines of the games is 81.1% (there is an 18.9% chance of a Steelers/Jaguars/Dolphins parlay hitting, which is the only way the Bills miss). Oh, I get it. And I think it is closer but might still be a bit optimistic. Dolphins are banged up, I get it...and Ravens SHOULD be a much better team...and Jags have been struggling. Still, I am optimistic...but very cautiously so. In another post I responded to where I got my numbers which are not hard quantifiable numbers like your own. I would put it this way. 95% means a virtual certainty. Your 80% would translate as very likely to me. I think 60 or even 66% translates as likely, but not VERY likely which is how I feel their chances are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 22 minutes ago, Behindenemylines said: Never thought I’d be rooting for Tannehill to be good. I Hear Ya, Bro! Never thought I'd be fervently rooting for the Poe-Birds! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYfan Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 (edited) I have it at 38.10%. Steelers/Ravens is 1/3 of the equation. I have Ravens as about 40% chance so that is 13.2% Jaguars/Titans is 1/3 of the equation and I have Titans at 25% chance so that is 8.25 percent. Bills/Dolphins is 1/3 of the equation which I have at 50/50 or 16.65% So, my calculation is 38.10% probability of being in on Sunday at midnight. Edited January 6 by CNYfan grammar 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vanhalen26 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I bet the parlay and win enough for a very large bottle of vodka if the bills are out. That way I can drown my sorrows. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SWATeam Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, CNYfan said: I have it at 38.10%. Steelers/Ravens is 1/3 of the equation. I have Ravens as about 40% chance so that is 13.2% Jaguars/Titans is 1/3 of the equation and I have Titans at 25% chance so that is 8.25 percent. Bills/Dolphins is 1/3 of the equation which I have at 50/50 or 16.65% So, my calculation is 38.10% probability of being in on Sunday at midnight. Where's the confused emoji? 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Giuseppe Tognarelli Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 14 minutes ago, Yobogoya! said: Nicely done 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SCBills Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 5 minutes ago, CNYfan said: I have it at 38.10%. Steelers/Ravens is 1/3 of the equation. I have Ravens as about 40% chance so that is 13.2% Jaguars/Titans is 1/3 of the equation and I have Titans at 25% chance so that is 8.25 percent. Bills/Dolphins is 1/3 of the equation which I have at 50/50 or 16.65% So, my calculation is 38.10% probability of being in on Sunday at midnight. I hate that I’m getting involved in this argument, but this doesn’t make any sense. If our only path was Bills/Dolphins, Bills win and make the playoffs .. given the setting, injuries, meaning etc.. we, at least, have a 50/50 shot at winning that game and making the playoffs, correct? So, our game alone equates to a 50% chance. How do we lose probability by having two other chances, in addition to our own game, at getting in? 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dillenger4 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 I wish everyone would stop talking about the Miami injuries. It's football with the division on the line. The #2 seed. It's January football. If you buy into Hill wearing a boot or Waddle having a boo-boo on his ankle, or Mosteart having a cut on his foot - gimme a break. The Phins are one of the fakest teams out there along with NE. These boys are playing and will be playing with everything they have! So will the Bills. This game is for all the marbles: The #2 seed. It's gonna be a dogfight. Bills win a tough battle! GO BILLS!!!!!! 4 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cash Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 7 minutes ago, SCBills said: I hate that I’m getting involved in this argument, but this doesn’t make any sense. If our only path was Bills/Dolphins, Bills win and make the playoffs .. given the setting, injuries, meaning etc.. we, at least, have a 50/50 shot at winning that game and making the playoffs, correct? So, our game alone equates to a 50% chance. How do we lose probability by having two other chances, in addition to our own game, at getting in? It’s a joke post. Intentionally bad math to be funny. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HereComesTheReignAgain Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 15 minutes ago, CNYfan said: I have it at 38.10%. Steelers/Ravens is 1/3 of the equation. I have Ravens as about 40% chance so that is 13.2% Jaguars/Titans is 1/3 of the equation and I have Titans at 25% chance so that is 8.25 percent. Bills/Dolphins is 1/3 of the equation which I have at 50/50 or 16.65% So, my calculation is 38.10% probability of being in on Sunday at midnight. I hope this is an attempt at humor. If not, you owe your math teachers a throat punch. 4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianmoorman4jesus Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Our up and down frustratingly miserable season can be saved today. If somehow the Ravens defense can just suffocate the Steelers and put us in….I don’t care how we got here or what it looks like, just get in. After all this aggravation, make teams regret letting us stay alive. 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HereComesTheReignAgain Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Found my “dolphins suck” hat. I’m ready! Go Bills! 7 2 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slippery Rubber Mats Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 2 minutes ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said: Our up and down frustratingly miserable season can be saved today. If somehow the Ravens defense can just suffocate the Steelers and put us in….I don’t care how we got here or what it looks like, just get in. After all this aggravation, make teams regret letting us stay alive. its funny about perspectives. You found this season miserable? After the drought teams I find it really hard to be miserable during bills season. Frustrating in some aspects sometimes sure, but overall a very entertaining season so far for me 3 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cotton Fitzsimmons Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 49 minutes ago, CNYfan said: I have it at 38.10%. Steelers/Ravens is 1/3 of the equation. I have Ravens as about 40% chance so that is 13.2% Jaguars/Titans is 1/3 of the equation and I have Titans at 25% chance so that is 8.25 percent. Bills/Dolphins is 1/3 of the equation which I have at 50/50 or 16.65% So, my calculation is 38.10% probability of being in on Sunday at midnight. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warcodered Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beck Water Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 (edited) 58 minutes ago, SWATeam said: Where's the confused emoji? I don't know but will this one do? 🤯 44 minutes ago, HereComesTheReignAgain said: I hope this is an attempt at humor. If not, you owe your math teachers a throat punch. That - and also, Don't Play Cards for $ Edited January 6 by Beck Water Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyBills Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 Anyone know why Diggs didn't practice Fri? Also Morse being questionable with an illness sucks. https://www.miamidolphins.com/team/injury-report/ Miami also looks like their injuries are trending in right direction Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Otreply Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 4 hours ago, longtimebillsfan said: It looks like the Dolphins will have more starters back the we had hoped for earlier in the week. We are going to get their very best effort. I think many posters herw are underestimating how difficult this game will be. I for one believe this game will be difficult for the Bills to win if we don't bring our "A" game. The way we gave played recently, can anyone say with confidence that the Bills will play their best on Sunday night? I am officially worried. Imo, anyone who thought that initial injury list was valid must have been stoned, the list was a ploy nothing more, the fins are going to use any method possible to get their guys on the field if they win they are the two seed, if they don’t win they are a sixth seed, and they don’t want to go down that road in the post season, we/the Bills win and we are the two seed, lose and we are the seventh seed or we are out, It’s going to be a knock down drag out brutal game, and the Bills are going to win!!!! 1 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWei44 Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 6 minutes ago, Don Otreply said: Imo, anyone who thought that initial injury list was valid must have been stoned, the list was a ploy nothing more, the fins are going to use any method possible to get their guys on the field if they win they are the two seed, if they don’t win they are a sixth seed, and they don’t want to go down that road in the post season, we/the Bills win and we are the two seed, lose and we are the seventh seed or we are out, It’s going to be a knock down drag out brutal game, and the Bills are going to win!!!! Yep, as it has been for a while, this is essentially another playoff game for us. We're battle tested!! Go Bills!! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigvinny Posted January 6 Share Posted January 6 14 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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