QB Confidence is a rare commodity right now (AFC)

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

As I was thinking about potential landing spots for Russell Wilson it struck me just how few NFL teams actually know who they want their QB to be in, say, 2 or 3 seasons' time.

 

Here's a rough breakdown of the AFC as I see it, organized by current standings.  Teams that deserve to feel pretty much set at the position (7 or higher) are bolded.  For the sake of clarity I'm not saying that every 10/10 or 5/10 is the same level of quality, I'm talking about each franchise's confidence in their current status.

 

Will get to NFC later.

 

Dolphins - 7/10.  Tua will be signing long term in all probability and he's shown more than just game manager potential.  But the long term injury risk is still high for comfort.

Bills - 10/10.  Josh.

Jets - 5/10.  There's a chance Rodgers works some magic in '24 or '25 but he's just as likely to miss another season and tie the cleats up.

Patriots - 3/10.  Getting rid of Belichick guarantees that they won't trade their high 1st rounder for a haul of draft picks but they weren't quite bad enough for the pick of the litter.  Pats fans have visions of Drake Maye dancing in their heads.

 

Ravens - 10/10.  Fans are divided on Lamar's prospects at winning a SB but he's certainly done enough this season for the Ravens to feel good about pulling the trigger on that contract.

Browns - (-3)/10.  Deshaun Watson's fully guaranteed contract will likely go down as the worst in NFL history when it's done.  He's injury prone, mediocre when healthy and a terrible human being that the fan base hates.  More importantly the QB situation is bogging down one of the better 53 man rosters in football.

Bengals - 9/10.  They definitely have their guy in Burrow but an injury riddled 2023 could be a minor blip or the beginning of something really bad.  Time will tell.

Steelers - 3/10.  Pickett will likely get one more season to prove his worth but this has been a popgun offense with him at the helm and the Steelers could also find his replacement sooner.

 

Jaguars - 6/10.  Tough one.  Lawrence will be up for a new contract and if you're the Jags' brass there's such a dearth of starting caliber QBs that you have to do it.  But the injuries are piling up and he's turnover prone.

Texans - 9/10.  A bad concussion involving light sensitivity casts a pall but CJ Stroud is otherwise as impressive as they come for a rookie.  Texans fans have no reason not to be optimistic.

Colts - 5/10.  Richardson is going to get his shot.  His ceiling is basically Josh-level but way too small a sample size so far and his early exit in '23 isn't a good harbinger that he can take the same type of hits.

Titans - 4/10.  Will Levis has shown some magic but also some duds and it's hard to say if the arm talent is there.

 

Chiefs - 10/10.  Yep.

Broncos - 2/10.  Moving on from Russ is probably the right decision but it's anyone's guess who starts in '24 and they won't be able to nab a top guy in the draft.  Gave them a 2 because they at least have some pieces in place to court a FA.

Raiders - 0/10.  QB purgatory.  They have one bad vet and one bad youngster.  No high draft pick nor a solid franchise direction in any other way.  Reaching for Bo Nix fits this franchise's DNA.

Chargers - 7/10.  Justin Herbert will get a clean slate sans Brandon Staley but much like Lawrence he's got a weird penchant for middling results despite the promising inputs.  All the same, having this type of guy locked up is a better foundation than most teams have right now.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CSBill]

Yeah, I cannot disagree with any of your assessments. 

[julian]

I agree with this, I only question your premise of that Tua has shown to be more than a game manager, I’ve seen him manage that explosive set of weapons but I don’t recall Tua taking over a game on his own when all else fails.

 

 I certainly hope and believe the Dolphins will extend him as you suggested, I love that idea.

[buffaloboyinATL]

I am 100% confident in Josh Allen. There is not a single QB in the league I would rather have.  

[ganesh]

16 minutes ago, julian said:

I agree with this, I only question your premise of that Tua has shown to be more than a game manager, I’ve seen him manage that explosive set of weapons but I don’t recall Tua taking over a game on his own when all else fails.

 

 I certainly hope and believe the Dolphins will extend him as you suggested, I love that idea.

If the Dolphins have not been in that situation, that should not be held against him.  He is a quick rhythm passer who can do some damage with his deadly accuracy.  Tua will be competing with Josh for a long time for the AFC East crown. Go Bills !

[julian]

3 minutes ago, ganesh said:

If the Dolphins have not been in that situation, that should not be held against him.  He is a quick rhythm passer who can do some damage with his deadly accuracy.  Tua will be competing with Josh for a long time for the AFC East crown. Go Bills !

Tua will never be competing with Josh, he’s just not on that level. The Dolphins team however will compete if they can keep Tua surrounded with all that speed and those weapons.

[Punching Bag]

24 minutes ago, julian said:

I agree with this, I only question your premise of that Tua has shown to be more than a game manager, I’ve seen him manage that explosive set of weapons but I don’t recall Tua taking over a game on his own when all else fails.

 

 I certainly hope and believe the Dolphins will extend him as you suggested, I love that idea.

 

Mijami has him on a cheap contract right now.  When he gets a new contract he will cost significant portion of salary cap.  He has been lucky this year with injuries but he is still vulnerable to concussions despite his kung fu lessons.

[julian]

2 minutes ago, Limeaid said:

 

Mijami has him on a cheap contract right now.  When he gets a new contract he will cost significant portion of salary cap.  He has been lucky this year with injuries but he is still vulnerable to concussions despite his kung fu lessons.

That’s exactly right, he’s an accurate NFL pocket passer with little mobility and a history of missing time due to his small stature and mounting brain injuries.

[Whites Bay]

I can't disagree with your assessment, other than to pick around the edges with the Jets.  I wouldn't put money on Rodgers returning.  Just a hunch.  Let's put it this way - I wouldn't want to have to be making the "go/no go" decision with that guy at QB come draft day.

[LeGOATski]

If I were the Dolphins, I wouldn't pay Tua. Same if I were the 49ers with Purdy. That's a QB friendly system. The Dolphins can draft another rookie and still surround him with elite weapons, possibly have an even better chance at a SB

[Lost]

Joe Flacco was the best QB signing in all of 2023.   The Browns woulda been better off giving him 50 million.

[dma0034]

Miami's roster is currently more expensive than the Bills.... and they pay Tua after this season or next. I hope they pay Tua 60 million a year. I don't think he'll ever win a Superbowl

[Malazan]

Man, the Panthers situation is so bad it doesn't even get a rating.

 

12 minutes ago, dma0034 said:

Miami's roster is currently more expensive than the Bills.... and they pay Tua after this season or next. I hope they pay Tua 60 million a year. I don't think he'll ever win a Superbowl

 

Tua will get his extension this offseason. It's now the norm for QBs you believe by year 3 to be your long term starter to get it after year 3 and this is his 4th year (he had to show he could stay healthy). That organization is also 110% confident in him being a perennial top 5 QB.

 

Regardless of what he gets in the extension, next year he'll be playing on the 5th year option which takes his cap hit from ~9 million this season to ~23 million next season. Personally, I think he comes in right about where Herbert is at around ~52 million a year.

 

Also, Waddle will be going into the last year of his contract and will likely get paid well for a wide receiver which is north of 20 million. Next season is Miami's last "budget" year.

Edited December 28, 2023 by Malazan

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

4 minutes ago, Malazan said:

Man, the Panthers situation is so bad it doesn't even get a rating.

 

 

Tua will get his extension this offseason. It's now the norm for QBs you believe by year 3 to be your long term starter to get it after year 3 and this is his 4th year (he had to show he could stay healthy). That organization is also 110% confident in him being a perennial top 5 QB.

 

Regardless of what he gets in the extension, next year he'll be playing on the 5th year option which takes his cap hit from ~9 million this season to ~23 million next season. Personally, I think he comes in right about where Herbert is at around ~52 million a year.

 

Also, Waddle will be going into the last year of his contract and will likely get paid well for a wide receiver which is north of 20 million. Next season is Miami's last "budget" year.

 

Just the AFC in this post.  But yeah, Panthers are in bad shape.

[PatsFanNH]

1 hour ago, ganesh said:

If the Dolphins have not been in that situation, that should not be held against him.  He is a quick rhythm passer who can do some damage with his deadly accuracy.  Tua will be competing with Josh for a long time for the AFC East crown. Go Bills !

I disagree, he isn’t the engine makes that O run that would be Hill. Without Hill the O is pedestrian.

[Draconator]

This is a well thought out post. Nicely done.

 

It wouldn't surprise me, if the Bengals make the playoffs (and that's a big if), if the crazy owner Brown tries to renegotiate Burrows contract. Could be some entertaining off-season drama.

[Airseven]

Dolphins, Jaguars, Texans, Chargers, and Bengals are also 10/10.

[SageAgainstTheMachine]

23 minutes ago, Airseven said:

Dolphins, Jaguars, Texans, Chargers, and Bengals are also 10/10.

To me 10/10 means “We absolutely want this guy to lead our team until he retires.”  Burrow I can buy with that paradigm, not the others.  Especially not Lawrence.

[ToGoGo]

Lawrence has been playing hurt all year. Don’t downgrade someone for showing toughness. 

[BearNorth]

1 hour ago, julian said:

Tua will never be competing with Josh, he’s just not on that level. The Dolphins team however will compete if they can keep Tua surrounded with all that speed and those weapons.

Tyreek is 3 months and 2 days younger than Diggs.  Of the top 32 receivers in the league, 7 are older than Hill, 6 are older than Diggs.  [Thielen, K. Allen, DHop, Lockett, OBJ, Evans, Diggs are top 32 older than Hill]. Father time is undefeated in the NFL. Look how quickly Smoke and Beasley went downhill.

[Chicken Boo]

Put me on record.

 

Deshaun Watson wins comeback player of the year next season.  *Actually, it'll probably be Chubb, but I expect Deshaun to have a good season next year.  He has weapons.  

[SoonerBillsFan]

2 hours ago, buffaloboyinATL said:

I am 100% confident in Josh Allen. There is not a single QB in the league I would rather have.  

We have a better Brett Favre / John Elway. Yeah he throws picks,but a ton of TD's moreso.

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, julian said:

Tua will never be competing with Josh, he’s just not on that level. The Dolphins team however will compete if they can keep Tua surrounded with all that speed and those weapons.

Tyreek is a special player with elite speed that the end offense is built around.  There are a lot of fast WR’s but few Tyreek Hill’s.  Once he leaves, I think Tua and the offense will need to evolve.

[julian]

8 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

Tyreek is a special player with elite speed that the end offense is built around.  There are a lot of fast WR’s but few Tyreek Hill’s.  Once he leaves, I think Tua and the offense will need to evolve.

He’s the fastest player in the NFL and a cheat code, you’re correct that once he’s gone they’re gonna be reaching for answers. 

[MJS]

3 hours ago, ganesh said:

If the Dolphins have not been in that situation, that should not be held against him.  He is a quick rhythm passer who can do some damage with his deadly accuracy.  Tua will be competing with Josh for a long time for the AFC East crown. Go Bills !

Tua is kind of like Dak. He is a good QB, but he isn't great and can't put the team on his back and will them to victory. It is hard to move on from good QB's, but it is also hard to overcome the truly great ones in the playoffs and super bowl.

[dma0034]

1 hour ago, ToGoGo said:

Lawrence has been playing hurt all year. Don’t downgrade someone for showing toughness. 

 

 

He hasn't been good since he's been a pro. He had a great half of last year. I hope the Jags pay him too. I think he's a mediocre QB masquerading as an Elite QB

[MJS]

1 hour ago, Chicken Boo said:

Put me on record.

 

Deshaun Watson wins comeback player of the year next season.  *Actually, it'll probably be Chubb, but I expect Deshaun to have a good season next year.  He has weapons.  

I personally think that Watson will never be very good again. But we'll see.

[ToGoGo]

48 minutes ago, dma0034 said:

 

 

He hasn't been good since he's been a pro. He had a great half of last year. I hope the Jags pay him too. I think he's a mediocre QB masquerading as an Elite QB

Insanity. But I guess you’re just following the narratives. 
 

We’ll see over the next few years. 

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

2 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Tyreek is a special player with elite speed that the end offense is built around.  There are a lot of fast WR’s but few Tyreek Hill’s.  Once he leaves, I think Tua and the offense will need to evolve.

once he leaves…the offense will be more like..

 

 

 

Edited December 29, 2023 by ControllerOfPlanetX

[ganesh]

3 hours ago, PatsFanNH said:

I disagree, he isn’t the engine makes that O run that would be Hill. Without Hill the O is pedestrian.

They have excellent running backs.  They can run the ball as much as play catch

[JohnNord]

2 hours ago, MJS said:

Tua is kind of like Dak. He is a good QB, but he isn't great and can't put the team on his back and will them to victory. It is hard to move on from good QB's, but it is also hard to overcome the truly great ones in the playoffs and super bowl.

Less athletic Dak with less of arm