Generic_Bills_Fan Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 2 hours ago, SageAgainstTheMachine said: I like how this "somewhat probable" scenario got nixed in the very first game. I hope all 12 other games go our way too and the complete opposite of that scenario happens haha 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 3 hours ago, chongli said: Based on the Dolphins record against teams with winning records this year and their penchant of December fades for decades now, the realistic odds for the Bills to win the division are probably around 90%. 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nephilim17 Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 Glad, thanks to this thread, I've confirmed what certain words mean now. To my kids who when they ask me if they can have a cat. "That's somewhat probable." To women on dating sites who don't look like their profile photos that were actually taken several years ago — before the fat and wrinkles really set in — and who want a second date with me: "That's somewhat probable." To my future woman when she asks me if I want to do yoga Saturday mornings with her: "That's somewhat probable." Thanks, OP! 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HappyDays Posted December 24, 2023 Share Posted December 24, 2023 I just want to point out that unless the Jaguars make a 30 point comeback, the first 3 results in the "somewhat probable scenario" all went in favor of the Bills. 1 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
4merper4mer Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 On 12/21/2023 at 11:27 PM, ImpactCorey said: I keep seeing in simulators that if the Bills win out they have a >99% chance of making the playoffs. >99% is not 100% so I was curious: what is a scenario where the Bills win out and actually MISS the playoffs? This is what I came up with: - First, the Bills win out. They beat the Chargers, Patriots, and Dolphins. With how they are playing as of late, very possible. - The Dolphins win the 2 games before playing the Bills. These games are against the Cowboys and the Ravens. This allows them to still win the division. These are two difficult match ups and an unlikely outcome but when Miami clicks on offense, anything is possible. - With the loss to the Dolphins, the Ravens still win their division by beating the 49ers or the Steelers. I think the Steelers game is almost a lock. - The Jaguars win their division by winning out against the Bucs, Panthers, and Titans. All weak opponents and very possible assuming Lawrence stays healthy. - Kansas City wins their division by beating the Raiders and Chargers. These teams will have nothing left to play for and KC will take advantage. However, KC drops one to the Bengals. More on this later. - The Colts win out by beating the Falcons, Raiders, and Texans. Winning out will be tough here for the Colts but not great teams they face along the way. - The Browns beat the Texans and Jets but drop one to the Bengals. Houston may have a problem at QB and the Jets are the Jets. This seems reasonable. Bengals being a key loss again. - The Bengals win out. They beat the Steelers, Chiefs, and Browns. Two key wins as previously mentioned. This is the most unlikely part of the scenario in my opinion but also the most crucial. Bengals wining out would be catastrophic for the Bills hopes. Steelers are falling apart. Bengals always play up on the Chiefs, and the Browns are a divisional match up. I'll definitely be paying attention. So there you have it, in this scenario you have Miami (12-5), Baltimore (12-5), Jacksonville (11-6), and Kansas City (11-6) as the division winners and the wildcards going to Indianapolis (11-6), Cleveland (11-6), and Cincinnati (11-6) even with Buffalo (11-6) winning out. You know.. in case you were wondering. Any updates on this “somewhat probable” situation? 5 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matt_In_NH Posted December 25, 2023 Share Posted December 25, 2023 I guess probable means something different than I thought. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Stonada Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Somewhat probably, none of this didn't not happen Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aussie Joe Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 OP short listed for 2023 post of the year … 1 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Punch Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 41 minutes ago, Ray Stonada said: Somewhat probably, none of this didn't not happen 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ray Stonada Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 33 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said: OP short listed for 2023 post of the year … LOL. Tbh, I appreciated the work @ImpactCorey put in to figure out how we could win out and miss the playoffs. But to die on the hill of calling a less than 1% chance "somewhat probable"... sometimes doubling down doesn't pay off... 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doc Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Turk Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 (edited) This was never somewhat probable. Every year teams lose games they "should" win down the stretch. This year it's happening almost too often. Virtually every team is losing these games. Except the Bills. Hopefully people at some point will remember how the NFL actually works and stop playing games in their head on "paper" and saying teams have "no chance" to win. Doubt it tho. Edited December 26, 2023 by Big Turk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coldfronts Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Big difference between probable and possible. I always keep it straight In my head by saying everything is possible but few things are probable Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyBills Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 (edited) LFG In 1 day it turned to this to this- The somewhat probable scenario the Bills get the 2 seed!! Bal beats Mia Bills beat NE and Mia And to think 3 weeks ago the sky was falling and we were 11th in the AFC Edited December 26, 2023 by JerseyBills Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strive_for_five_guy Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 1 minute ago, JerseyBills said: LFG In 1 day it turned to this to this- The somewhat probable scenario the Bills get the 2 seed!! Bal beats Mia Bills beat NE and Mia And to think 3 weeks ago the sky was falling and we were 11th in the AFC Should know by about 4:30 next Sunday whether 2 of these 3 things have happened… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregg Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 Are they any scenarios for week 17 where the Bills can clinch a playoff spot or do we have to wait until week 18 to clinch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollars 2 donuts Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, Gregg said: Are they any scenarios for week 17 where the Bills can clinch a playoff spot or do we have to wait until week 18 to clinch. Bills win, Seahawks over Steelers and a Bengals loss to Chiefs, I believe. Edited December 26, 2023 by dollars 2 donuts 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregg Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 1 minute ago, dollars 2 donuts said: Bills win, Steelers over Bengals and I believe Seahawks win and they clinch. Steelers are playing the Seahawks, and the Chiefs are playing the Bengals. I would assume the Seahawks and Chiefs winning along with a Bills win clinches a WC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 The thing I said for weeks is the Bills were still in it because of the unreliability of who was ahead of them - a young Texans team (and then Stroud gets hurt), a Bengals team with a backup QB and Chase hurt, the Colts who to be honest I am shocked have won as many as they have, the Jags who are mental midgets under pressure, Denver whose QB is still an issue, Cleveland who have a legit D but are on their 4th QB. It was always likely 1 or maybe 2 of them stuck on down the stretch like the Browns have. But for 3 of those 6 to be consistent was always highly unlikely IMO. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Motorin' Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 (edited) 14 minutes ago, dollars 2 donuts said: Bills win, Seahawks over Steelers and a Bengals loss to Chiefs, I believe. Also: Bills win and 1 of the Bengals or Steelers lose, combined with 2 losses from the Jags, Colts or Texans. Edited December 26, 2023 by Motorin' 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No_Matter_What Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: The thing I said for weeks is the Bills were still in it because of the unreliability of who was ahead of them - a young Texans team (and then Stroud gets hurt), a Bengals team with a backup QB and Chase hurt, the Colts who to be honest I am shocked have won as many as they have, the Jags who are mental midgets under pressure, Denver whose QB is still an issue, Cleveland who have a legit D but are on their 4th QB. It was always likely 1 or maybe 2 of them stuck on down the stretch like the Browns have. But for 3 of those 6 to be consistent was always highly unlikely IMO. Little OT here, but I guess it doesn't matter anymore since the point of this thread is dead anyway Based on your theory on 3 elite players, do we have a shot on SB right now? Since to me we have 2 difference makers right now - Allen and Oliver. Not sure we can count Diggs based on last weeks. So, we have a chance if Diggs performs on an elite level? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunnerBill Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said: Little OT here, but I guess it doesn't matter anymore since the point of this thread is dead anyway Based on your theory on 3 elite players, do we have a shot on SB right now? Since to me we have 2 difference makers right now - Allen and Oliver. Not sure we can count Diggs based on last weeks. So, we have a chance if Diggs performs on an elite level? Yea we need Stef back to his best. I thought he was exceptional on Saturday FWIW. I know they didn't target him a ton but it was his best game for a while. And yea, Ed has been elite this year. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ecmic82 Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 (edited) On 12/26/2023 at 7:51 AM, Gregg said: Are they any scenarios for week 17 where the Bills can clinch a playoff spot or do we have to wait until week 18 to clinch. I think there’s five scenarios if the Bills win. Losses by either… Pitt and Cin Pitt and Jax Jax and Cin Pitt and Hou and Indy Cin and Hou and Indy Edited December 27, 2023 by Ecmic82 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dollars 2 donuts Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 25 minutes ago, Gregg said: Steelers are playing the Seahawks, and the Chiefs are playing the Bengals. I would assume the Seahawks and Chiefs winning along with a Bills win clinches a WC. Thanks, Greg, I caught it just after I wrote it and corrected it, hoping before anyone quoted it. I knew right away. 15 minutes ago, Motorin' said: Also: Bills win and 1 of the Bengals or Steelers lose, combined with 2 losses from the Jags, Colts or Texans. @Gregg 11th, gentlemen. We were 11th in the AFC 3 weeks ago. This is crazy and this is joyous. Happy Holidays. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospector Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 8 hours ago, Ray Stonada said: Somewhat probably, none of this didn't not happen At least we agree on one thing. Indeed it is but not yes, probably isn’t maybe true but won’t. That’s for dang sure! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billsatlastin2018 Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 (edited) 24 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said: So, we have a chance if Diggs performs on an elite level? Multiple teams ‘have a chance this year! We can see that as spot on, after last night’s dismantling of front running San Fran, who fell from the best around to ‘possible’. NO game will be pretty. For the Bills? There can be no slip ups now, no buffoon like coaching mismanagement, no dropping critical balls, no fumbling them like a clued out Rookie- until September, because of their early banana skin FUBARs! It could be anybody in the AFC Championship, even the Browns @ Buffalo! That’s how whacky it is in 2023. And they could play the Lions for the Lombardi! Edited December 26, 2023 by Billsatlastin2018 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Olliemets Posted December 26, 2023 Share Posted December 26, 2023 28 minutes ago, Billsatlastin2018 said: It could be anybody in the AFC Championship, even the Browns @ Buffalo! That’s how whacky it is in 2023. And they could play the Lions for the Lombardi! I'll sign up for Lake Erie Championship Conference and Super Bowl right now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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