McDermott's Two Minute Defense This Year vs Past Seasons

[uticaclub]

10 minutes ago, BillsFan2313 said:

 If we go 5-0, we are making the playoffs

We have a 13.5% chance according to DVOA, if we go 5-0. I know that's not the be all, end all, but are chances are slim and none and Slim’s packing his bags.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Not making excuses, but an old and not very athletic secondary playing a HUGE role in this. 

[Mister Defense]

9 hours ago, Bermuda Triangle said:

Huh?

 

In the Minnesota game, the Bills went up 27-10 with 1:51 left in the 3rd quarter.  A mere 17 seconds later, Dalvin Cook ripped off an 81-yard TD run.  And we'll all remember the 4th and 18 Justin Jefferson catch, on which play I'm not sure exactly what Cam Lewis was doing.  Minnesota rolled up 480+ yards of offense.

 

In the Hail Murray game, the Bills went up 23-9 with 9:52 left in the 3rd quarter, and fell behind 23-26 before the end of the 3rd quarter.   AZ had 450+ yards of total offense.  

 

 

I did not look back at the game summaries and will now.

 

But I don't recall thinking the defense falling apart on vital drives like they have too often this year.  I had thought that the Minnesota loss was more the result of some bad/fluke plays by the offense, and in the Arizona game it was the hail Mary play that was the major breakdown.  That kind of long run by Cook was not common against Frazier's defenses and those things happen in NFL games And for the Bills not a pattern, a fluke, one big play

In any case, this D played a superb first half, on the road, against the best team in the league.

 

 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

2 hours ago, uticaclub said:

We have a 13.5% chance according to DVOA, if we go 5-0. I know that's not the be all, end all, but are chances are slim and none and Slim’s packing his bags.

Are you sure that’s not 13.5% chance TO go 5-0 lol 5-0 finish and we are 99% in by any playoff simulator I’ve seen 

 

our odds to get in at 4-1 are considerably better than that 13.5 number 

it looks like DVOA is giving us a 13.5% chance to get in right now with no assumptions about future wins.  We are the 4th rated team in the afc by their DAVE metric and we walloped the 3rd rated team so I don’t think you’re interpreting the numbers correctly 

Edited December 1, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[JTown]

9 hours ago, Peter said:

As it turns out, McClappy fired the wrong coordinator . . . .

 

When speaking of the importance of "complementary" football, McClappy should have looked in the mirror.

I have been saying this since the 13 second debacle.  Welcome aboard.

I appreciate the positive  changes McClappy has made during his tenure here, but it's clear that his playing not to lose defensive strategies only result in losses.  It's that simple. 

 

I personally think he unequivocally has to go sooner rather than later.   

I have seen very little humility from a leader who has preached "humble and hungry " for the last 7 years.

 

Conversely, McClappy has come across as one who is never accountable.  I think that he honestly thinks his defensive strategies work and continues to allow opponents to shred him in the 3rd and 4th qtrs.  Yet he refuses to change or adjust.  Pure arrogance and quite frankly pretty stupid IMO. 

 

I'm currently watching the Sea v Dal game and I will tell you right now that the Bills D will not be able to stop the Dallas O.  It will be ugly. 

 

[Billsfan1972]

1 hour ago, Mister Defense said:

 

 

I did not look back at the game summaries and will now.

 

But I don't recall thinking the defense falling apart on vital drives like they have too often this year.  I had thought that the Minnesota loss was more the result of some bad/fluke plays by the offense, and in the Arizona game it was the hail Mary play that was the major breakdown.  That kind of long run by Cook was not common against Frazier's defenses and those things happen in NFL games And for the Bills not a pattern, a fluke, one big play

In any case, this D played a superb first half, on the road, against the best team in the league.

 

 

So?  They allowed 30 points after the first half.  Means very little when you lose.

[Mister Defense]

1 hour ago, Billsfan1972 said:

So?  They allowed 30 points after the first half.  Means very little when you lose.

 

Well, it is still very relevant that they can shut a team down like that--and we have seen that over and over this year, keeping them in almost every game.

 

Need to be able to see that--and the weakness too--to be able to fix things, make it all work without these gaps.

 

You sound like you want them to throw the baby out with the bath water, rather than to fix the problems. There are reasons why this very short handed defense has been able to look so good so often this year, just like there are reasons for the lack of stops late in games. 

 

[BananaB]

Guess McD should get on the phone and beg Leslie to come back

Edited December 1, 2023 by BananaB

[Big Turk]

14 hours ago, uticaclub said:

He knows he's a dead man walking. Even if we go 5-0; we aren't making the playoffs. He had his opportunity with a generational QB and he blew it. You give Dick Jauron, Josh Allen at QB and he's not missing the playoffs

 

Multiple Bills sources report there is a ZERO percent chance he gets fired, but keep believing what you must I guess.

[Mister Defense]

2 hours ago, JTown said:

I have been saying this since the 13 second debacle.  Welcome aboard.

I appreciate the positive  changes McClappy has made during his tenure here, but it's clear that his playing not to lose defensive strategies only result in losses.  It's that simple. 

 

I personally think he unequivocally has to go sooner rather than later.   

I have seen very little humility from a leader who has preached "humble and hungry " for the last 7 years.

 

Conversely, McClappy has come across as one who is never accountable.  I think that he honestly thinks his defensive strategies work and continues to allow opponents to shred him in the 3rd and 4th qtrs.  Yet he refuses to change or adjust.  Pure arrogance and quite frankly pretty stupid IMO. 

 

I'm currently watching the Sea v Dal game and I will tell you right now that the Bills D will not be able to stop the Dallas O.  It will be ugly. 

 

 

They stopped the Miami defense and they have kept the Bills in almost every game this year.  The Bills are not in this position because of the defense, but because they had an  incompetent offensive coordinator who literally did not know what he was doing.

 

He is gone. Too late, yup, but there should be no questions now by all about what the problem was. 

 

I would love to bet you on that last assertion...  You think Dak Prescott at the Ralph,  the Bills with a two game winning streak on the line and a  playoff spot, is not only going to beat the Bills but beat up on them, dominate them?  

 

Strange that you have more confidence in a QB who cannot beat a good team in a meaningful situation if his life was on the line than a team that looks as good as any in the NFL right now.

 

 

Edited December 1, 2023 by Mister Defense

[GunnerBill]

On 11/30/2023 at 2:23 AM, Scott7975 said:

I seen these on twitter today.  Not sure if they have been posted somewhere here or not but I thought people would find them interesting

 

 

 

 

Leslie Frazier was really good. Despite what the keyboard warriors on this forum think. 

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, JTown said:

I have been saying this since the 13 second debacle.  Welcome aboard.

I appreciate the positive  changes McClappy has made during his tenure here, but it's clear that his playing not to lose defensive strategies only result in losses.  It's that simple. 

 

I personally think he unequivocally has to go sooner rather than later.   

I have seen very little humility from a leader who has preached "humble and hungry " for the last 7 years.

 

Conversely, McClappy has come across as one who is never accountable.  I think that he honestly thinks his defensive strategies work and continues to allow opponents to shred him in the 3rd and 4th qtrs.  Yet he refuses to change or adjust.  Pure arrogance and quite frankly pretty stupid IMO. 

 

I'm currently watching the Sea v Dal game and I will tell you right now that the Bills D will not be able to stop the Dallas O.  It will be ugly. 

 

Will the Bills offense play as good as Geno Smith and the Seahawks? 

[uticaclub]

9 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

Multiple Bills sources report there is a ZERO percent chance he gets fired, but keep believing what you must I guess.

It cited people “familiar with Pegula’s thinking” he has never faced his dilemma so no one knows what he's going to do. There’s 5 weeks left in the season a lot can happen. The entire Von  sitution isn’t going to help his case to stay. Its another garbage article on The Athletic.

[Negan]

2 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

It cited people “familiar with Pegula’s thinking” he has never faced his dilemma so no one knows what he's going to do. There’s 5 weeks left in the season a lot can happen. The entire Von  sitution isn’t going to help his case to stay. Its another garbage article on The Athletic.

Read our articles, and pay for it too.

How about you get some advertisers instead.

[uticaclub]

12 hours ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Are you sure that’s not 13.5% chance TO go 5-0 lol 5-0 finish and we are 99% in by any playoff simulator I’ve seen 

 

our odds to get in at 4-1 are considerably better than that 13.5 number 

it looks like DVOA is giving us a 13.5% chance to get in right now with no assumptions about future wins.  We are the 4th rated team in the afc by their DAVE metric and we walloped the 3rd rated team so I don’t think you’re interpreting the numbers correctly 

Maybe I read the stat wrong but when you look at the schedules on the teams ahead of us, we are a distant long shot. If you pick manually games on any playoff machine NYT or ESPN, its hard for us to get in at 11-5; we have to hope for A LOT of upsets

Edited December 1, 2023 by uticaclub

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

22 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

Maybe I read the stat wrong but when you look at the schedules on the teams ahead of us, we are a distant long shot. If you pick manually games on any playoff machine NYT or ESPN, its hard for us to get in at 11-5; we have to hope for A LOT of upsets

Oooh the wording sounded like you were saying if we go 5-0 we’re a 13% chance which is not true…its an uphill battle overall but a 5-0 finish we are nearly guaranteed to get in

 

The dvoa methodology actually gives us more of a chance than other predictions so I was confused at what  you were sayin lol

 

I think the one benefit we have is the vast majority of these fellow wildcard competitors have somewhere between bad and terrible qbs right now..  like I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if a team like Cleveland finished 1-5.  

Edited December 1, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[uticaclub]

3 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

Oooh the wording sounded like you were saying if we go 5-0 we’re a 13% chance which is not true…its an uphill battle overall but a 5-0 finish we are nearly guaranteed to get in

 

The dvoa methodology actually gives us more of a chance than other predictions so I was confused at what  you were sayin lol

 

I think the one benefit we have is the vast majority of these fellow wildcard competitors have somewhere between bad and terrible qbs right now..  like I wouldn’t be terribly surprised if a team like Cleveland finished 1-5.  

Cleveland still has the Bears, Jets & Bengals. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

Just now, uticaclub said:

Cleveland still has the Bears, Jets & Bengals. We would both be 11-5 & they beat us on tiebreakers

I don’t know why those are guaranteed wins for them is the point I was making…pj walker and DTR are as bad or worse than browning they could be playing the jets with Aaron Rodgers by week 17 also. 

[Scott7975]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Leslie Frazier was really good. Despite what the keyboard warriors on this forum think. 

 

I was a fan of Frazier and thought he was an excellent coach despite 13 seconds.  I actually think the 13 seconds was on McD but who knows.  Sometimes I was not a fan of how they played off the ball but overall he was a good coach.

Edited December 1, 2023 by Scott7975

[uticaclub]

46 minutes ago, Generic_Bills_Fan said:

I don’t know why those are guaranteed wins for them is the point I was making…pj walker and DTR are as bad or worse than browning they could be playing the jets with Aaron Rodgers by week 17 also. 

Rodgers isn’t coming back & while I know anything can happen on any given week. If you look at the projected favorites of all the upcoming, even with the bills at 11-6; we would miss out.

Edited December 1, 2023 by uticaclub

[GunnerBill]

50 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

Rodgers isn’t coming back & while I know anything can happen on any given week. If you look at the projected favorites of all the upcoming, even with the bills at 11-6; we would miss out.

 

But the projected favourites are all flawed teams and will lose games you think they should win. FWIW I don't think the Bills will win at KC, I don't think they will win out and I don't think they will make the playoffs from here. But if they DO win out I am 100% confident they would make it at 11-6. I think a 10 win team will make it in the AFC. Probably not us because of conference record though. 

[uticaclub]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But the projected favourites are all flawed teams and will lose games you think they should win. FWIW I don't think the Bills will win at KC, I don't think they will win out and I don't think they will make the playoffs from here. But if they DO win out I am 100% confident they would make it at 11-6. I think a 10 win team will make it in the AFC. Probably not us because of conference record though. 

You are correct, we’d most likely make it since there are upsets every week. I could just see Josh go on an absolute tear and still miss because we couldn’t stop Mac Jones from driving down the field and scoring a TD with less than 2 minutes.

Edited December 1, 2023 by uticaclub

[JTown]

12 hours ago, FireChans said:

Will the Bills offense play as good as Geno Smith and the Seahawks? 

I think that offensively yes they will.   Frankly,  I think that we will play Dallas very similar to the Seattle game last night.  I will not be surprised if McClappy allows Dallas to drive down the field for a game winning score.  I mean really,  how many times are we going to do this?  McClappy is NOT going to change his defensive strategy,  particularly late in the game.  Our only chance of beating Dallas is that they struggle offensively due to the weather. 

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, JTown said:

I think that offensively yes they will.   Frankly,  I think that we will play Dallas very similar to the Seattle game last night.  I will not be surprised if McClappy allows Dallas to drive down the field for a game winning score.  I mean really,  how many times are we going to do this?  McClappy is NOT going to change his defensive strategy,  particularly late in the game.  Our only chance of beating Dallas is that they struggle offensively due to the weather. 

If the Bills played offense as well as they have been the last few weeks (since the end of Kenny boy), we probably would’ve have been competing for the one seed this season. Regardless of the defensive struggles.
 

Ken cost us the season. Sucks.

Edited December 1, 2023 by FireChans

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

On 11/29/2023 at 9:23 PM, Scott7975 said:

I seen these on twitter today.  Not sure if they have been posted somewhere here or not but I thought people would find them interesting

 

 

 

Who have been the closers on D? In my mind 
Matt Milano

TreD White

Von Miller 

Taron Johnson

Jordan Poyer 
Micah Hyde

Even Tremaine had some game ending stops

 

first two and last are gone, the third one is 1-legged, Taron has not had a good year and Poyer and Hyde look washed up. 

 

Save some splash plays from Ed and Bernard’s flashes, it’s a bunch or marginal talent. 

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

3 hours ago, uticaclub said:

Rodgers isn’t coming back & while I know anything can happen on any given week. If you look at the projected favorites of all the upcoming, even with the bills at 11-6; we would miss out.

The odds of the projected favorite winning every game are astronomically small. That is not a realistic way to predict anything.  Especially if they are a small favorite.  If you’re a 60/40 favorite in back to back games the odds of winning both of those games is 36%. Not to mention you’re looking at the favorites now when the favorites need to be re evaluated before each game.  For example browns may be the favorite over all those teams you mentioned now but if they go out and get destroyed next game that may not be the case 

 

I mean they activated his 21 day practice window.  And even if Rodgers doesn’t come back the browns and jets are both good defenses with terrible qbs.  It’s a pretty safe bet browns lose at least one of bears jets and bengals 

Edited December 1, 2023 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[JTown]

19 hours ago, Mister Defense said:

 

They stopped the Miami defense and they have kept the Bills in almost every game this year.  The Bills are not in this position because of the defense, but because they had an  incompetent offensive coordinator who literally did not know what he was doing.

 

He is gone. Too late, yup, but there should be no questions now by all about what the problem was. 

 

I would love to bet you on that last assertion...  You think Dak Prescott at the Ralph,  the Bills with a two game winning streak on the line and a  playoff spot, is not only going to beat the Bills but beat up on them, dominate them?  

 

Strange that you have more confidence in a QB who cannot beat a good team in a meaningful situation if his life was on the line than a team that looks as good as any in the NFL right now.

 

 

What I think is the Bills offense can match almost any team in the league.   Look at the scores all season long.  I can very easily see a McClappy special allowing Dallas to march down the field for a winning score. 

I never said "beat up or dominate".  

I used the word ugly. ( I.e... 13 seconds = ugly, Philly game = ugly, Jets game = ugly, every overtime game in McClappys tenure= ugly, Patriots game = ugly).  

Let me know if you would like more examples of ugly games. 

IMO... the Bills should be 5-7 on the season as they were gifted a win by horrible officiating against the Giants.  

 

What two game winning streak are you referring to?

 

You think that the Bills are going into KC and winning on the road against Mahomes and a greatly improved KC defense when they have lost to the Jets, Patriots Jags, Denver, and Jax?

 

If so, let me get your plugs phone # cuz I need some of what you are smoking!

 

Look.  I am a Bills fanatic and I will always be.  Yes I would like them to dominate and with JA17, I believe that they can.   Unfortunately McClappy is navigating this titanic and he struck an iceberg during the AFCC against KC.  It just hasn't sunk yet.  But I do see people running for lifeboats.

 

Go Bills!

 

(McClappy seems like the type of Captain that will make sure that he has a seat in one of the lifeboats)

[JTown]

7 hours ago, FireChans said:

If the Bills played offense as well as they have been the last few weeks (since the end of Kenny boy), we probably would’ve have been competing for the one seed this season. Regardless of the defensive struggles.
 

Ken cost us the season. Sucks.

Yes he played a role in this season but I would argue that McClappy has cost us three consecutive seasons. 

 

Firing Dorsey was just another CYA move by McClappy akin to putting lipstick on a pig.

 

The issues this year are his defensive strategies at the end of games.   Unfortunately,  I believe the late game defensive woes will absolutely continue as they head into the hardest remaining stretch in the league. 

 

Go Bills!

[Billsfan1972]

38 minutes ago, JTown said:

What I think is the Bills offense can match almost any team in the league.   Look at the scores all season long.  I can very easily see a McClappy special allowing Dallas to march down the field for a winning score. 

I never said "beat up or dominate".  

I used the word ugly. ( I.e... 13 seconds = ugly, Philly game = ugly, Jets game = ugly, every overtime game in McClappys tenure= ugly, Patriots game = ugly).  

Let me know if you would like more examples of ugly games. 

IMO... the Bills should be 5-7 on the season as they were gifted a win by horrible officiating against the Giants.  

 

What two game winning streak are you referring to?

 

You think that the Bills are going into KC and winning on the road against Mahomes and a greatly improved KC defense when they have lost to the Jets, Patriots Jags, Denver, and Jax?

 

If so, let me get your plugs phone # cuz I need some of what you are smoking!

 

Look.  I am a Bills fanatic and I will always be.  Yes I would like them to dominate and with JA17, I believe that they can.   Unfortunately McClappy is navigating this titanic and he struck an iceberg during the AFCC against KC.  It just hasn't sunk yet.  But I do see people running for lifeboats.

 

Go Bills!

 

(McClappy seems like the type of Captain that will make sure that he has a seat in one of the lifeboats)

What i don't get is McD is the HC I'm sure he was hreatly responsible for Dorsey's failure as he must review the game plan and probably was responsible for wanti.g Allento run less and the play design.

 

His comments about complimentary football were assinine.

[FireChans]

13 minutes ago, Billsfan1972 said:

What i don't get is McD is the HC I'm sure he was hreatly responsible for Dorsey's failure as he must review the game plan and probably was responsible for wanti.g Allento run less and the play design.

 

His comments about complimentary football were assinine.

His comments about complementary football were completely correct. The offense puked on its shoes v the Giants, v Jax, v the Jets, v the Broncos and v the Pats.

 

If the offense was just competent in all of those games, we are 3-2 or 4-1 in those games instead of 1-4 and our season isn’t even close to being in danger. Instead, they were horrible 

[st pete gogolak]

I’m hoping for a Jim Lee Howell situation redux.  First step is to see if Brady is the real deal as OC. Hopefully, we’ll know by the end of the season. Second, hire a young aggressive DC who won’t play a soft zone at the end of one score games.  McDermott stays as HC.  
 

Who is Jim Lee Howell?  He was NY Giants HC during the late 50’s.  His DC was Tom Landry and his OC was Vince Lombardi!

[nedboy7]

I’m ok w McD coming back. I fully support this team. He is a good coach. Hoping he can learn. He knows his days are numbered. 

[GoBills808]

19 minutes ago, FireChans said:

His comments about complementary football were completely correct. The offense puked on its shoes v the Giants, v Jax, v the Jets, v the Broncos and v the Pats.

 

If the offense was just competent in all of those games, we are 3-2 or 4-1 in those games instead of 1-4 and our season isn’t even close to being in danger. Instead, they were horrible 

Offense was fine v Jags v Pats

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

Offense was fine v Jags v Pats

Disagree.

[Einstein]

On 11/30/2023 at 6:48 PM, uticaclub said:

We have a 13.5% chance according to DVOA, if we go 5-0. I know that's not the be all, end all, but are chances are slim and none and Slim’s packing his bags.

 

You’re misreading that stat.

[Chaos]

How many points does the offense need to score each game to win 5-0.  Will 34 in every game be enough? Or does it need to be higher to overcome the defense's shortcoming?

[GoBills808]

15 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Disagree.

Look at what we gave up on defense to those teams

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

Look at what we gave up on defense to those teams

Offense had 7 and 10 points at 7 min left in the 4th and 5 min left in the 4th.

 

We average 27 PPG.

 

That's bad.

[Einstein]

On 11/30/2023 at 10:47 AM, colin said:

mcd is simply a choker. 

 

It does sorta feel that way.

 

I feel he is overall a good coach. And we could do A LOT worse than McD.

 

But I worry how in crunch time it just… falls apart. 
 

Over and over and over again.

 

From Houston playoffs, to KC playoffs (13 seconds), to Arizona (Hail Murray), to NE, to Denver, to Philly, to Minnesota … even the Miami playoff game we barely held on after going up 17-0.

 

Seems like the only way we can win is to blow teams out. 

 

People mention all the greats that took a long time to put it together… Reid, Cowher, Belichick, etc.

 

But were those coaches losing games in the most asinine heartbreaking fashion like McD has? Am I simply forgetting the ways those coaches lost? Do any of those guys have all-time blunders like 13 seconds, for example?

 

It would make me feel a lot better if they do.

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Offense had 7 and 10 points at 7 min left in the 4th and 5 min left in the 4th.

 

We average 27 PPG.

 

That's bad.

We lost those games more because of the defense 

 

We gave up 500 yards to the jags and allowed twice benched Mac Jones to go off