Is Josh a mediocre QB right now? And does it matter?

[Beck Water]

Now hear me out 😈

 

I started out 'salty' about the "Josh Allen most interceptions in last 2 years".  I said, said I, "but Josh has the most continuous starts of any player, let alone QB - so how does that play into it? And also, he throws a ton of passing TDs, so surely that compensates".   Since I'm a datageek, here's what I did:

-pulled regular season data from 2021, 2022, and 2023 out of pro-football-reference

-Excel pivot table to sum data by QB

-calculate interceptions, TD, 1D, and Yards per game, to normalize data for different numbers of starts

-multiply by 35 games to get it out of decimal form that is hard to interpret when we're used to thinking about integer numbers

 

This actually isn't what  I thought I was going to find.  I thought when normalized by starts, Josh Allen would NOT be leading in # of INT.  And he isn't - but he's one behind Davis Mills, tied with Sam Darnold, and one ahead of Matt Stafford and Andy Dalton.  Yikes!!!!!  That is not actually company you want your 6 yr vet, big-$$ QB to keep!  Or, I thought if he was still "up there", he would also be "up there" in passing TD to compensate.
 

So here are the data.  (Click to make it readable).  Sorted by TD/INT, Josh Allen is currently 17 on the list.  Now obviously, this isn't the be-all end-all of QB evaluation, since some of the QB listed above him by this metric, are literally unemployed at the moment (Trevor Siemian, Carson Wentz), are backups (Case Keenum) or are retired (Brady). 

I recall Mike Tomlin benching Mason Rudolph after a multi-interception game, saying "we just need someone who won't kill us" (with turnovers).  So as a metric for how much a QB contributes to scoring vs. how much a QB hurts the team by ending possessions with the other team in position to score, I thought this was worth looking at.  And by this metric, allen is below starting Rodgers, Purdy, Goff, Cousins. Mahomes, Geno Smith, Burrow, Herbert, WILSON (!!!!!), Hurts, Prescott, and Tua.

 

Thoughts?  (I can sort it by other parameters if anyone cares).

 

FWIW, my thoughts are that Josh's offensive contributions are still strong enough to allow a team to win with him provided they have a good run game and top defense.  But if we're taking Josh out of the run game, and with aging safeties and a new MLB, I'm not sure we have enough of those last two to get there.  So if we want to win, Josh, Joe Brady, and Ken Dorsey better figure it out - and fast.

Edited September 16, 2023 by Beck Water

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

Et tu, Beck Water? 🤔

[Billl]

His running is such a huge part of his game that anything omitting those stats is lacking.  He’s got 13 TDs and 23 fumbles over that period.

[Beck Water]

4 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Et tu, Beck Water? 🤔

 

These are the data.  They didn't take me where I expected they would when I started crunching, or where I wanted them to.

"De rules are de rules and de facts are de facts and when the Cheese Drawer opens, ya gotta pay the tax"

 

3 minutes ago, Billl said:

His running is such a huge part of his game that anything omitting those stats is lacking.  He’s got 13 TDs and 23 fumbles over that period.

 

As stated elsewhere, the last time I looked almost all of Josh's fumbles of the last 2 seasons involve the passing game, not the run game.

 

It's a fair point that I could include fumbles, but we'll be including fumbles for every QB - and the way data is stored on the free sites I use, that's non-trivial for me to add.

 

His running is a huge part of the Bills run game, but Dorsey has publicly stated they are limiting designed runs, so....

Edited September 16, 2023 by Beck Water

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

1 minute ago, Beck Water said:

 

These are the data.  They didn't take me where I expected they would when I started crunching, or where I wanted them to.

"De rules are de rules and de facts are de facts and when the Cheese Drawer opens, ya gotta pay the tax"

Not denying or disputing your facts.  I just have a case of ATA. (Allen Thread Aversion.)

[Chaos]

Replying to Headine:

No. 

[Beck Water]

Just now, Chaos said:

Replying to Headine:

No. 

 

Fair

2 minutes ago, Ridgewaycynic2013 said:

Not denying or disputing your facts.  I just have a case of ATA. (Allen Thread Aversion.)

 

Feel free to ignore thread and me

[Coach Tuesday]

Josh Allen is, on many Sundays, the best player for both teams.

[julian]

Wtf is going on with this fan base

[Billl]

4 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

These are the data.  They didn't take me where I expected they would when I started crunching, or where I wanted them to.

"De rules are de rules and de facts are de facts and when the Cheese Drawer opens, ya gotta pay the tax"

 

 

As stated elsewhere, the last time I looked almost all of Josh's fumbles of the last 2 seasons involve the passing game, not the run game.

 

It's a fair point that I could include fumbles, but we'll be including fumbles for every QB - and the way data is stored on the free sites I use, that's non-trivial for me to add.

 

His running is a huge part of the Bills run game, but Dorsey has publicly stated they are limiting designed runs, so....

Fair enough, but I don’t really see how it matters if the fumble occurs on a pass or a run. Either speaks to the level of ball security.  

[Teddy KGB]

What a question 🤦🏼‍♂️🤣🤣

[Beck Water]

Just now, Billl said:

Fair enough, but I don’t really see how it matters if the fumble occurs on a pass or a run. Either speaks to the level of ball security.  

 

I thought you were pointing to the problem (both positive and negative) of omitting run game contributions.

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, julian said:

Wtf is going on with this fan base

Fear that the dream is over. If Josh has really morphed back into his rookie self, this franchise is absolutely screwed for the next decade. Josh has a 99 million dead cap hit. 

[Beck Water]

2 minutes ago, Coach Tuesday said:

Josh Allen is, on many Sundays, the best player for both teams.

 

That's actually, and sadly, not an unreasonable way of looking at some (we can argue about what is meant by "many") of Josh's games.

[julian]

1 minute ago, FrenchConnection said:

Fear that the dream is over. If Josh has really morphed back into his rookie self, this franchise is absolutely screwed for the next decade. Josh has a 99 million dead cap hit. 

Hahahaha this is amazing 

[Beck Water]

7 minutes ago, julian said:

Wtf is going on with this fan base

 

What do you want?  The fan base should only fart unicorns and rainbows while singing "everyone is beautiful in their own way?"

 

Look, I'm the first in line to shoot down random verbiage criticism "he sucks" "he looks frantic" blah blah or unsubstantiated crap "he can't read defenses" "he doesn't prepare".

 

But I'm not going to ignore Cold Hard Football Facts.

 

We all hope Allen gets whatever advice and mentoring he needs and makes whatever mental alterations he needs to rein it in.  But right now it's not good.

Edited September 16, 2023 by Beck Water

[Low Positive]

4 minutes ago, Teddy KGB said:

What a question 🤦🏼‍♂️🤣🤣

I read this in Yakov Smirnoff's voice.

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

Fear that the dream is over. If Josh has really morphed back into his rookie self, this franchise is absolutely screwed for the next decade. Josh has a 99 million dead cap hit. 

 

Yea I am not that level of concern yet. But I do think the fact we have seen elite Josh just once in 13 games going back to Green Bay suggests there is more than just "he had a bad day" going on. 

 

There are issues with his game right now that need fixing and I think most of the issues are in Josh Allen's head.

[Low Positive]

3 minutes ago, julian said:

Hahahaha this is amazing 

I'm not saying that I agree, but that's what is going on with the board.

[ColoradoBills]

I was a data geek in my job and now that I'm retired, I still have spreadsheets giving me "directions" in my personal life.

 

While I enjoy the data and statistics in football, there are so many variables that go into numbers like this.  When you add in the play

of the complete team rosters, scheduling, team placements in divisions and conferences, weather, coaching and simple good or bad luck

(just to name a few) I have to beware of their results.

 

Josh Allen is an elite athlete and is still young enough for none of us to know what his ultimate career results will be.

We all know how close the team (and by extension) Josh Allen was 2 years ago from winning it all.

My opinion FWIW (and that isn't much).

[Low Positive]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I am not that level of concern yet. But I do think the fact we have seen elite Josh just once in 13 games going back to Green Bay suggests there is more than just "he had a bad day" going on. 

 

There are issues with his game right now that need fixing and I think most of the issues are in Josh Allen's head.

It's a good point. Josh's problem coming into the league where bad mechanics leading to inaccurate throws. He seems to have more or less fixed that. None of those INTs on Monday night were bad throws. They were bad decisions. 

[Beck Water]

7 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea I am not that level of concern yet. But I do think the fact we have seen elite Josh just once in 13 games going back to Green Bay suggests there is more than just "he had a bad day" going on. 

 

There are issues with his game right now that need fixing and I think most of the issues are in Josh Allen's head.

 

This is where I am.  I can argue the "just once" as I think he's had more good games than that - games where if that were his floor, we wouldn't be having this discussion (I would count  maybe 5 as good games), but that's one of those "OK, define more precisely what elite means to you" arguments and doesn't change the fact that we're at > games where Josh Allen was "the most valuable player for BOTH teams" than we are games where he was solid to great in that time frame.

 

3 minutes ago, FrenchConnection said:

It's a good point. Josh's problem coming into the league where bad mechanics leading to inaccurate throws. He seems to have more or less fixed that. None of those INTs on Monday night were bad throws. They were bad decisions. 

 

I think the throw to Gabe was arguably a poor throw, where the decision wasn't horrid and better ball placement would have made it 'Gabe's ball, or no one's'.

 

But the other 3 TO were mental crap.

Edited September 16, 2023 by Beck Water

[US Egg]

“Is Josh a mediocre QB right now? And does it matter?”

[MPL]

I'll admit that I have begun to have a growing concern that the Bills and Josh are teetering very close to the Carson Wentz trajectory. Of course, the Eagles made the difficult decisions and it's worked out well for them. Would the Bills ever do a thing like that? Probably not. 

(FWIW, I'm not advocating for anything drastic right now. Just going to watch it play out and hope for the best). 

[HOUSE]

18 minutes ago, julian said:

Wtf is going on with this fan base

Maddy Glab is corrupting fan morals

[NoSaint]

40 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

Now hear me out 😈

 

I started out 'salty' about the "Josh Allen most interceptions in last 2 years".  I said, said I, "but Josh has the most continuous starts of any player, let alone QB - so how does that play into it? And also, he throws a ton of passing TDs, so surely that compensates".   Since I'm a datageek, here's what I did:

-pulled regular season data from 2021, 2022, and 2023 out of pro-football-reference

-Excel pivot table to sum data by QB

-calculate interceptions, TD, 1D, and Yards per game, to normalize data for different numbers of starts

-multiply by 35 games to get it out of decimal form that is hard to interpret when we're used to thinking about integer numbers

 

This actually isn't what  I thought I was going to find.  I thought when normalized by starts, Josh Allen would NOT be leading in # of INT.  And he isn't - but he's one behind Davis Mills, tied with Sam Darnold, and one ahead of Matt Stafford and Andy Dalton.  Yikes!!!!!  That is not actually company you want your 6 yr vet, big-$$ QB to keep!  Or, I thought if he was still "up there", he would also be "up there" in passing TD to compensate.
 

So here are the data.  (Click to make it readable).  Sorted by TD/INT, Josh Allen is currently 17 on the list.  Now obviously, this isn't the be-all end-all of QB evaluation, since some of the QB listed above him by this metric, are literally unemployed at the moment (Trevor Siemian, Carson Wentz), are backups (Case Keenum) or are retired (Brady). 

I recall Mike Tomlin benching Mason Rudolph after a multi-interception game, saying "we just need someone who won't kill us" (with turnovers).  So as a metric for how much a QB contributes to scoring vs. how much a QB hurts the team by ending possessions with the other team in position to score, I thought this was worth looking at.  And by this metric, allen is below starting Rodgers, Purdy, Goff, Cousins. Mahomes, Geno Smith, Burrow, Herbert, WILSON (!!!!!), Hurts, Prescott, and Tua.

 

Thoughts?  (I can sort it by other parameters if anyone cares).

 

FWIW, my thoughts are that Josh's offensive contributions are still strong enough to allow a team to win with him provided they have a good run game and top defense.  But if we're taking Josh out of the run game, and with aging safeties and a new MLB, I'm not sure we have enough of those last two to get there.  So if we want to win, Josh, Joe Brady, and Ken Dorsey better figure it out - and fast.

not to minimize it but you are probably to deep into the trees to see the forest at this point. You are just throwing everything at the wall and should probably go enjoy your Saturday, and come back to the game tomorrow with a clean slate. 
 

Josh is an elite qb. The offense even with its troubles is very good. We will likely be play Miami for the division lead in a couple weeks.

 

none of us, you included, needed another new Josh thread.

4 minutes ago, MPL said:

I'll admit that I have begun to have a growing concern that the Bills and Josh are teetering very close to the Carson Wentz trajectory. Of course, the Eagles made the difficult decisions and it's worked out well for them. Would the Bills ever do a thing like that? Probably not. 

(FWIW, I'm not advocating for anything drastic right now. Just going to watch it play out and hope for the best). 

wentz is an awful comparable. 

Edited September 16, 2023 by NoSaint

[Billl]

22 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I thought you were pointing to the problem (both positive and negative) of omitting run game contributions.

I was.  If you want to attribute the fumbles to the passing game, then they should have been included in your original post.  Either way, his rushing TDs and fumbles are a huge part of who he is as a QB for better or worse.  

[MPL]

3 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

6 minutes ago, MPL said:

I'll admit that I have begun to have a growing concern that the Bills and Josh are teetering very close to the Carson Wentz trajectory. Of course, the Eagles made the difficult decisions and it's worked out well for them. Would the Bills ever do a thing like that? Probably not. 

(FWIW, I'm not advocating for anything drastic right now. Just going to watch it play out and hope for the best). 

wentz is an awful comparable. 

Not from a physical tools standpoint... but a QB who was in the MVP conversation and signed a huge contract?

[TheWei44]

Great work on this, Beck!!  Thanks!!

 

Not sure if already mentioned, but I'd be curious to see how this table would look including rushing TDs and rushing yards.  It's incomplete in the sense that running has been a huge part of his game (for better or worse).

[ColoradoBills]

7 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

This is where I am.  I can argue the "just once" as I think he's had more good games than that - games where if that were his floor, we wouldn't be having this discussion (I would count  maybe 5 as good games), but that's one of those "OK, define more precisely what elite means to you", and it doesn't change the fact that we're at > games where Josh Allen was "the most valuable player for BOTH teams" than we are games where he was solid to great.

 

If I go by your statistical measurement stated in the OP and the conclusions are that Trevor Siemian and Case Keenum are better QBs in the

NFL than Josh Allen, then I will have to say your assumptions, using that data only, is incorrect.

 

My points about variables are true.  Here is a "variable".  What are Tom Brady's chances of becoming the GOAT if he was drafted by the

Arizona Cardinals in the 7th round (LB Sekou Sanyika) instead of by the New England Patriots in the 6th?

[Success]

46 minutes ago, julian said:

Wtf is going on with this fan base

 

Amnesia re: the last 20 years.

 

Allen could easily end up a top 20 QB of all time, and maybe even top 10 w/ his skillset.  He's allowed a bad game here & there.

 

[GunnerBill]

42 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

This is where I am.  I can argue the "just once" as I think he's had more good games than that - games where if that were his floor, we wouldn't be having this discussion (I would count  maybe 5 as good games), but that's one of those "OK, define more precisely what elite means to you" arguments and doesn't change the fact that we're at > games where Josh Allen was "the most valuable player for BOTH teams" than we are games where he was solid to great in that time frame.

 

 

I think the throw to Gabe was arguably a poor throw, where the decision wasn't horrid and better ball placement would have made it 'Gabe's ball, or no one's'.

 

But the other 3 TO were mental crap.

 

Yea I wasn't saying he has sucked for 13 games. He has had some decent games in that time but only the Miami game where I thought he was elite level Josh.

[Billl]

13 minutes ago, Success said:

 

Amnesia re: the last 20 years.

 

Allen could easily end up a top 20 QB of all time, and maybe even top 10 w/ his skillset.  He's allowed a bad game here & there.

 

Of course he’s allowed a bad game here and there.  This is a look back at 2+ seasons, though.

[Success]

1 minute ago, Billl said:

Of course he’s allowed a bad game here and there.  This is a look back at 2+ seasons, though.

 

He was great last year until the UCL.

 

[stinky finger]

33 minutes ago, TheWei44 said:

Great work on this, Beck!!  Thanks!!

 

Not sure if already mentioned, but I'd be curious to see how this table would look including rushing TDs and rushing yards.  It's incomplete in the sense that running has been a huge part of his game (for better or worse).

 

This is football. Tables are for jumping on, not looking at.

[Dr.Sack]

The longer he hangs in the pocket with the ball the worse the outcome. 

[NoSaint]

46 minutes ago, MPL said:

Not from a physical tools standpoint... but a QB who was in the MVP conversation and signed a huge contract?

wentz had a much less substantial resume and fell off the cliff much harder on the field while being a jerk in the locker room to ice the cake

[Gugny]

He is solidly in the top 5. 
 

A couple years ago, he was solidly in the top 2. 
 

Doesn’t sound like much, but when the offense is “built” to pretty much rely upon Diggs and Allen having a good game, that’s what we get.  
 

Allen has regressed because Beane and McDermott have regressed … which includes tapping Dorsey as the OC. 

 

As appropriate as it is to pin the lack of the Bills’ success on Allen, let’s face it … the last favor Beane did for him was to get Diggs. 
 

Supporting cast and coaching have taken a dive since that happened. 

[ShortBusGrizz]

Lifelong Bears fan here.  I would happily trade you Justin Fields, Nathan Peterman, Tremaine Edmunds, and a 2024 first round pick for Allen right now.  Good luck on the rest of the season.  Allen will right the ship.  We will be lucky to win 4 games this year.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, MPL said:

I'll admit that I have begun to have a growing concern that the Bills and Josh are teetering very close to the Carson Wentz trajectory. Of course, the Eagles made the difficult decisions and it's worked out well for them. Would the Bills ever do a thing like that? Probably not. 

(FWIW, I'm not advocating for anything drastic right now. Just going to watch it play out and hope for the best). 

 

I share the concern that we're edging into Carson Wentz territory. 

 

I do agree with the point that there are significant differences between Wentz on-field accomplishments and Josh's before he "fell off", but I think people forget how splendid Wentz looked his 2nd and 3rd seasons before injuries, and even his 4th season before the "wheels fell off" in his 5th year. 

 

The Eagles record in 2019 was 9-7; they had 5 losses which were 1 score games.   Win 3-4 of them, earn a different playoff draw, and the narrative changes.

 

 

7 minutes ago, Gugny said:

He is solidly in the top 5. 
 

A couple years ago, he was solidly in the top 2. 
 

Doesn’t sound like much, but when the offense is “built” to pretty much rely upon Diggs and Allen having a good game, that’s what we get.  
 

Allen has regressed because Beane and McDermott have regressed … which includes tapping Dorsey as the OC. 

 

As appropriate as it is to pin the lack of the Bills’ success on Allen, let’s face it … the last favor Beane did for him was to get Diggs. 
 

Supporting cast and coaching have taken a dive since that happened. 

 

Drafting Kincaid in the 1st round and Torrence in the 2nd were supposed to be significant moves for the offense ("favors" in your parlance)

Ditto Cook in the 2nd last year

Edited September 16, 2023 by Beck Water